I've seen many people claiming that "altcoin season has started," often pointing to the BTC.D chart as evidence. I’d like to clarify some misconceptions about what BTC.D actually shows.
1. The BTC.D chart reflects Bitcoin's market cap as a percentage of the total crypto market cap—nothing more, nothing less. A drop in BTC.D doesn’t cause altcoins to surge. If anything, BTC.D may decline because altcoins have already surged. While some altcoins have seen gains, I personally think it’s premature to declare this as "altcoin season," which is inherently subjective.
2. Unlike past cycles, this bull market is shaped by Bitcoin ETFs and increased institutional investment, primarily focused on BTC. Much of Bitcoin's growth is driven by capital sources unlikely to flow into altcoins unless they attract similar institutional interest. So far, aside from a few ETF applications, institutional altcoin investment remains minimal. The impact on altcoins is uncertain—it could lead to more investment over time, or to a narrowing focus on only the most promising altcoins (i.e., those with true value propositions for the broader market).
Remember, technical indicators like BTC.D are backward-looking. They don’t predict future movements—they only show what has already happened. Their predictive power is limited without additional context.