Aug 23
Overview:
Wow, what a 24 hours it has been. At one point,
SUIUSD was up 21.6%. Yesterday, we mentioned that "some long positions can be taken with a properly tight SL" once a new trading range was established. On August 21st, we wrote, "
ARUSD, 
APTUSD, 
TAOUSD showed better price action in the last couple of days. They will likely continue trading higher next week, as BTC stays within its range."
But let's break it down step by step.
SP500 posted a green candle, closing the week on a positive note. However, that candle was within the shadow of yesterday’s red candle, making it neutral rather than bullish.
Additionally, Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole wasn't particularly dovish. It was seen as a signal that the Federal Reserve is prepared to maintain a restrictive stance on monetary policy to ensure inflation is brought under control, even if that means keeping interest rates higher for longer than the markets might prefer.
BTC saw a massive $252 million in ETF flows from tradfi investors. And what did early Grayscale Trust adopters do? They sold $35.6 million worth of it. We’re left wondering how much of that $35.6 million was clients simply converting expensive GBTC into cheaper BTC fund, or if they sold for good. Unfortunately, even on-chain analytics won’t reveal that.
ETH ETF? No chance... Tradfi investors don’t seem to grasp smart contracts. They sold $5.7 million worth, even during a significant BTC rally.
Whales and other professional market actors are well aware that September is historically volatile and often brutal. Will they start selling and closing their positions in the last week of August, or will they wait until the first or second week of September, right before the expected interest rate cut? The big question is, do you want your portfolio to end up in a meat grinder?
W: Yesterday’s
BTCUSD wick went higher than the BB MA, but after a pullback, it settled nicely right at the precisely drawn W level of 64k. If bulls can keep it above the 63k level, we can start talking about a new bullish sentiment, but as of now, we are still in a bear market. No divergence.
D: The $61.8 level was taken by bulls six times, and on the seventh attempt, they gathered enough strength. BTC rebounded after a crash, forming a nice bullish pennant. However, it has now reached the upper bound of the Bollinger Bands. Definitely not a time to go long—keep an eye on MACD or CVD divergences.
4h: RSI is above 70, but no MACD divergence yet.
1h: No divergences.
Alts Relative to BTC: If BTC grew by 6%,APTUSD is up 9%, 
RNDRUSD is up 10%, 
NEARUSD is up 12%, and SUIUSD is up 20%. Is SUI gearing up to be 3rd favorite smart contract platform after SOL? Will be looking closely. Some of these started to rally 2-3 days ago.
ETHUSD and 
SOLUSD performance was more underwhelming, posting only 5.4% and 7%, respectively. Are they so beaten up that fewer people want to touch them? Where’s the ETF crowd? Leave your thoughts in the comments.
Bull Case: Bulls are able to hold the important W level in anticipation of rate cuts. Reaching that level has already happened; now it’s just a matter of staying there. If Panama, Brazil, and Paraguay announce Bitcoin as legal tender, following in the footsteps of El Salvador and the Central African Republic, this could fuel further bullish sentiment.
Bear Case: The trend continues without a reversal. The Fed doesn’t cut rates quickly enough, and corporate earnings reveal weakness in consumer spending. Whales and insiders start selling and shorting in late September, causing the market to drop in October—a month historically tough for crypto (cough, cough... FTX).
Fear and Greed Index: 55.87. Remember—you only buy in 'Fear' territory, which is below 40.
Prediction: We might see some altcoins grow a bit more, but overall, BTC is likely to post a Doji candle next week.
Opportunities: On W and 4h charts, we continue to see many major altcoins in the RSI danger zone. Wait for Saturday’s price action and potential divergences to prepare for a Sunday sell-off.
Wow, what a 24 hours it has been. At one point,
SUIUSD was up 21.6%. Yesterday, we mentioned that "some long positions can be taken with a properly tight SL" once a new trading range was established. On August 21st, we wrote, "ARUSD, APTUSD, TAOUSD showed better price action in the last couple of days. They will likely continue trading higher next week, as BTC stays within its range."But let's break it down step by step.
SP500 posted a green candle, closing the week on a positive note. However, that candle was within the shadow of yesterday’s red candle, making it neutral rather than bullish.Additionally, Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole wasn't particularly dovish. It was seen as a signal that the Federal Reserve is prepared to maintain a restrictive stance on monetary policy to ensure inflation is brought under control, even if that means keeping interest rates higher for longer than the markets might prefer.
BTC saw a massive $252 million in ETF flows from tradfi investors. And what did early Grayscale Trust adopters do? They sold $35.6 million worth of it. We’re left wondering how much of that $35.6 million was clients simply converting expensive GBTC into cheaper BTC fund, or if they sold for good. Unfortunately, even on-chain analytics won’t reveal that.
ETH ETF? No chance... Tradfi investors don’t seem to grasp smart contracts. They sold $5.7 million worth, even during a significant BTC rally.
Whales and other professional market actors are well aware that September is historically volatile and often brutal. Will they start selling and closing their positions in the last week of August, or will they wait until the first or second week of September, right before the expected interest rate cut? The big question is, do you want your portfolio to end up in a meat grinder?
W: Yesterday’s
BTCUSD wick went higher than the BB MA, but after a pullback, it settled nicely right at the precisely drawn W level of 64k. If bulls can keep it above the 63k level, we can start talking about a new bullish sentiment, but as of now, we are still in a bear market. No divergence.D: The $61.8 level was taken by bulls six times, and on the seventh attempt, they gathered enough strength. BTC rebounded after a crash, forming a nice bullish pennant. However, it has now reached the upper bound of the Bollinger Bands. Definitely not a time to go long—keep an eye on MACD or CVD divergences.
4h: RSI is above 70, but no MACD divergence yet.
1h: No divergences.
Alts Relative to BTC: If BTC grew by 6%,
APTUSD is up 9%, RNDRUSD is up 10%, NEARUSD is up 12%, and SUIUSD is up 20%. Is SUI gearing up to be 3rd favorite smart contract platform after SOL? Will be looking closely. Some of these started to rally 2-3 days ago.ETHUSD and SOLUSD performance was more underwhelming, posting only 5.4% and 7%, respectively. Are they so beaten up that fewer people want to touch them? Where’s the ETF crowd? Leave your thoughts in the comments.Bull Case: Bulls are able to hold the important W level in anticipation of rate cuts. Reaching that level has already happened; now it’s just a matter of staying there. If Panama, Brazil, and Paraguay announce Bitcoin as legal tender, following in the footsteps of El Salvador and the Central African Republic, this could fuel further bullish sentiment.
Bear Case: The trend continues without a reversal. The Fed doesn’t cut rates quickly enough, and corporate earnings reveal weakness in consumer spending. Whales and insiders start selling and shorting in late September, causing the market to drop in October—a month historically tough for crypto (cough, cough... FTX).
- 2013: After a strong first half, Bitcoin saw a correction in September before resuming its rally towards the end of the year.
- 2017: Bitcoin experienced a notable dip in September, partly due to regulatory concerns in China. However, this was followed by a rapid recovery and an all-time high in December.
- 2021: After strong growth earlier in the year, September saw a decline due to regulatory fears and macroeconomic factors, although the market rebounded in Q4.
Fear and Greed Index: 55.87. Remember—you only buy in 'Fear' territory, which is below 40.
Prediction: We might see some altcoins grow a bit more, but overall, BTC is likely to post a Doji candle next week.
Opportunities: On W and 4h charts, we continue to see many major altcoins in the RSI danger zone. Wait for Saturday’s price action and potential divergences to prepare for a Sunday sell-off.
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