📉 The S&P 500 (
SPX /
SP500 / $ES_F) is at a geopolitical crossroads.
After the Global Pause, the index rebounded, but only to retest resistance near the 200-day EMA. Now it faces a binary outcome:
Scenario A: ✅ Deal with China
Estimated probability: 20%
Potential upside: +10%
Expected value: +2%
Scenario B: ❌ No Deal with China
Estimated probability: 80%
Potential downside: -50%
Expected value: -40%
📉 Expected move: -38% net Markets are not priced for this. Volatility (
VIX) is quietly coiling under the surface (chart 2), ready to explode if the no-deal scenario materializes.
After the Global Pause, the index rebounded, but only to retest resistance near the 200-day EMA. Now it faces a binary outcome:
Scenario A: ✅ Deal with China
Estimated probability: 20%
Potential upside: +10%
Expected value: +2%
Scenario B: ❌ No Deal with China
Estimated probability: 80%
Potential downside: -50%
Expected value: -40%
📉 Expected move: -38% net Markets are not priced for this. Volatility (
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.