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A Renko Strategy for Trading - Part 5This is intended more as educational material on a strategy for using renko charts. To begin with, I'll be using USOil in the examples but will include other markets as I continue through the series. The material is not intended to prescribe or recommend actual trades as the decision to place trades is the responsibility of each individual who trades as they assume all risks for their own positions and accounts. Chart setup: (Part 1) Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) 12 black line Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) 20 red line Parabolic SAR (PSAR) 0.09/0.09/.23 blue circles Simple Moving Average (SA) 20 blue line (Part 2) Stochastics 5, 3, 3 with boundaries 80/20 dark blue/light blue Stochastics 50, 3, 3 with boundaries 55/45 red Overlay these two on one indicator. Refer to 'Part 2' as to how to do this (Part 3) True Strength Indicator (TSI) 14/4/4 dark blue/ red Directional Movement Indicator DMI 14/14 ADX-dark green, +DI-dark blue, -DI-red
FX:USOILEducation
by mxb1961
Master the Simple Inside Bar Pattern hey guys, on WTI we have a perfect example of Inside Bar candlestick pattern on a daily chart. An inside bar is a series of bars or sometimes just one bar that is contained within the range of the preceding bar (mother bar). The first rule that we should take into account is that inside bars must have a higher low and lower high than the mother bar. The second rule is that we trade this pattern only after bearish or bullish breakout of a mother bar trading range. The logic behind inside bar is simple. It indicates a time of indecision and market consolidation. Inside bars typically occur as a market consolidates after making a large directional move (bearish on WTI), you also can see this pattern at key decision points like major support or resistance levels. For WTI our plan is to wait until a violation of a trading range. Remember that the candle MUST close below or above the range before we take any action!
FX:USOILEducation
by VasilyTrader
7
US Oil: A big challengeUS Oil presents some serious challenges for those looking to short this market. This analysis is time frame dependent. Which way you might want to go depends entirely on trends in respective time frames. DAILY PICTURE 1. On the daily time frame this is very much a bull market. We can see that in the ATR (amber trendline) and the green Guppy investor zone. 2. On the daily price has made a temporary retreat to near ATR support, in a parabolic limb of the curve. 3. If anything this is usually a place to go long (on this time frame). 4H - FOUR HOURLY PICTURE 1. There is an early trend switch for the south. 2. This is seen on the ATR and SQM (Squeeze momentum). 3. But it isn't as yet a Grade A or Grade B switch. DECISION-MAKING (Speculative issues) 1. Finding appropriate entry point on a chosen time frame. 2. For a limited hit going long (north) on the 4H, taking a reasonable stop loss and taking only about a 26 or 38.2 Fib retracement of the most recent daily candle. 3. For a limited hit going short (south) on the 4H, a larger stop-loss is required. 4. Possibly going long on the daily and hold out. As usual before starting any trade on any time frame common things need to be decided: 1. Time frame one will stick to (1D, 4H or something else). 2. Entry position. 3. Stop-loss. 4. Exit position. Stop-losses on 4H and less need to cater for short spikes in price. So simply saying 2.5 times ATR may not be enough. Based on experience only of US Oil, I can expect a recoil up on the 4H but of course, I can't predict how much. As mentioned above I can expect at least a 26% Fib on the length of the last daily candle. Expectation is not prediction. Declaration : This post is for educational purposes only. Nothing here is intended as advice. Your losses are your own should you still construe this as advice, act on it, and lose money.
TVC:USOILEducation
by Captain_Walker
USOIL headed downWeekly chart shows price nearing the apex of the ascending wedge with a target of $45. RSI is hitting resistance and MACD's histogram is possibly printing hidden bearish divergence. H4 chart shows RSI, and possibly MACD, printing bearish divergence. The nearby demand has already been tapped once making it much easier for the next drop into it to potentially fall further. I would watch for the demand below that at around $55 to provide some support. It also aligns with the ascending channel's support. If that support cannot hold then, based on the height of the ascending channel, we should be looking at $49.70/$50 for the next likely support. That target is a mere $5 away from the weekly breakdown target.
TVC:USOILEducation
by Chris_Inks
take a look at how a pin bar can indicate a possible downtrendIn the chart above, we have a bullish pin bar that formed on the USDJPY weekly chart. .This pin bar formed at a previous resistance level, which is now acting as support. This price action signal tells us that the market is likely to see higher ground in the weeks ahead. "BUT" instead of trading the weekly time frame, we can move to the daily chart and watch for bullish price action. If you want to learn a consistent traidng method, let me tell you that you are lucky because you come to the right place.i helped thousands of beginner traders become profitable.i have one of the most powerful trading method in history, it is simple, easy, and very profitable.if you are interested contact.
Education
by AleeJaffery
Correlation Trading EUR/USD/ DAX/ OIL/ GOLDHey guys, after a time of inactivity I"m back. Today I show you how you can trade EUR/USD with the help of correlations. You can see in the chart positive correlations and negative correlations. Be careful the arrows on the chart are no trend direction. If for example Oil change its direction the trend direction is turned. But be careful with long term-trends and short- therm trend. Always be aware of your timeframe. (4h is short therm trading) Hope I could be informative for you guys
Education
by perc_growth_everyday
Pattern Analysis; incorporating timeframes (USOIL)Understanding trends within a pattern gives analysts the ability to better understand sentiment and directional pressure. In this example, pattern extremities were highlighted. Then, on a lower timeframe, trends within said pattern drawn. Overlaying timeframes is a necessary part of a complete analysis, and a complete commodity analysis can help piece together economic factors affecting commodity-sensitive currencies such as CAD and AUD.
TVC:USOILEducation
by TRADINGTRADER22222
2
Correlation Coefficient + CCIPictured above is a graph of Royal Dutch Shell vs brent crude, the correlation coefficient between them, and the commodity channel index tracking the volume weighted moving average of Shell. I tested this indicator on a few energy stocks: RDS, MRO, BP and XOM. Negative correlation between brent crude and an energy stock coupled with an overbought CCI seems to give an indication of price reversal. Here we see two overbought CCI readings coupled with negative correlation, both followed by massive drops in the price of BCO and RDS. Likewise we see negative correlation coupled with upward CCI readings pointing to massive price rises in RDS. Seems to work on daily time frame as well but indicator length will need to be tweaked accordingly. Correlation coefficient going negative is an indication of pricing inefficiency and momentum potential, but does not give us an indication of price direction. The commodity channel index can give us a sense of where price momentum is pointed. Both put together give us a powerful indicator capable of foreshadowing both momentum and direction.
REducation
by Derivati_Capital
Ben Wright's 3 Essential Trading Routines!! MUST SEE!!SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY Below are 3 essential trading routines that i follow on a daily basis. This has been a critical component to my success. Morning Routine 1. Meditation (10 Mins) 2. Gratitude 3. Trading Affirmations (2 Mins) • I am a successful trader • I have a very strict risk management plan • I use a trading journal • I am unemotional about profits or losses • I am patient and let high probability trades present themselves to me • I am happy to take a profit and will not be greedy • I have an edge and I trade it effectively and decisively • Losses are a part of my trading • I am relaxed and confident about my trading at all times • I do whatever is necessary to win at trading • Discipline means I follow my trading rules and manage my risk • I am highly focused • I am in total control at all times with my trading • I am a master trader • I am not stressed about relying on trading money to provide for the family 4. Visualization (Goals & Perfect Trading Day) (10 Mins) 5. Priming – (30 – 60 Sec cold shower) Shocks your body system and activates endorphins 6. Motivation & Stretching (10 Mins) Pre-Trading Routine 1. 3 Deep breaths 2. Gratitude Night Routine 1. Read (30 Mins) 2. Affirmations (2 Mins) 3. Gratitude 4. Visualization (Goals & Perfect Trading Day) (10 Mins) Happy trading :) Follow your Trading plan, remained disciplined and keep learning !!
FX_IDC:USDWTIEducation
by SMPTrader
5
OIL - The Key Indicator to an Imminent Global RecessionEverything is linked to the price of oil. Our food, our phones, our computers, our clean water, our electricity, everything we use each day is dependant on oil. If oil prices were to pump due to a new peak (which is inevitable), the price of everything will climb. As a result, it will reach a point where we can't afford to consume the same amount of things, slowing down our industrial activity. 2008 was a crisis, meaning our governments managed to fix the issue on the short term. However, during that period, food industries were struggling, and famines happened in several countries. To solve this problem, they had no other choice than shutting down the price of oil to restart the machine. In 2014, thanks to our advanced technique of extraction, global production exceeded demand, and the price fell by itself. However cheap oil is becoming rarer and demand is not decreasing. We will see price climbing slowly at first, and like an exponential curve, will be able to very quickly climb up to new highs, and who knows what will happen then? How long are we going to be able to answer the demand that seems to be in a no-limit growth?
TVC:USOILEducation
by cyatophilum
#EURNOK and #UKBRENT #UKOIL CorrelationWhen we look at correlations in charting, we sometimes see certain #FX pairs are correlated to a #commodity or #index, in this instance I am giving you an example of #EURNOK vs #UKOIL #BRENT. These charts can help you make distinctions in the trend of the commodity, so when we see a #bullish EURNOK, you want to be looking a trades that are bearish Brent/UKOil, again this is not tick for tick, so, you will use confirmation like trendlines, underlying fundamentals etc. But you can clearly see the correlations. I suggest you try this with other markets, like #USDNOK #WTI #USDJPY #NIKKEI #SPX #10YR
Education
by B15H
1
Technical Analysis 101!!SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY Technical Analysis 101!! Interpreting the candlestick This type of chart is an extension of the bar chart as discussed and is actively utilised by the investors in China for more than 500 years of time period. It helps in providing the information regarding open, close, low and high in the dimensional format. It can be seen that the vertical axis of the chart helps in providing information on the prices of the FOREX whereas the horizontal axis represents the time period. The white candles are the representation of the advances of the currency and the black candles, on the other hand, represents the decline in the value of the FOREX. Moreover, the body denotes the thick portion of the candle, and the vertical line represents the wick. This chart helps the investor to forecast the future price movement of the FOREX. b) Charting systems In the mind of a few people, charts are the exemplary image of the trader’s speciality. The experienced eye can make ups and down. Charting is a questionable piece of the fund. Future research is probably going to reveal things about outlining that would amaze people today. All things considered, even individuals who eagerly restrict the training are ought to be acquainted with the essential techniques of charting. Follow your Trading plan, Remain disciplined and keep learning !! Please Follow, Like,Comment & Follow Thank you for your support :) This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
FX_IDC:USDWTIEducation
by SMPTrader
Creating your own Trading Strategy!!SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY Creating your own Trading Strategy!! Below is a quick run down of things to think about when creating your own trading strategy 1. How much time during the day do you have to devote to trading? .................................................................................. 2. How much money do you need to live on each year and how much of that must come out of trading profits? ...................................................................................................................................... 3. How many distractions can you expect during the day/night? ..................................................................... 4. Specify the markets and times of the day you will trade? ......................................................................... 5. Do I want to trade multiple systems? ............................................... 6. Will you short sell? Or go long? ........................................ 7.Where will you place your Entry/Stop Loss and Target Line? ........................................................................... Follow your Trading plan, Remain disciplined and keep learning !! Please Follow, Like,Comment & Follow Thank you for your support :) This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
FX_IDC:USDWTIEducation
by SMPTrader
Elements of a Successful Trading Plan 102SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY Elements of a Successful Trading Plan 102 2. Risk Level Managing a risk in trading is essential if a person wishes to make profitable investments. As a trader, one cannot control the market but he/ she do have the capacity to change what can be done as circumstances require. They need to adapt the changes as the market conditions evolve. A person does not take a position and hopes the market acts in your favour. Managing trading risk will be a key factor in an individual’s long term success as a trader. As the market, structure changes, the risk profile of trade will also change. Risk will vary at different points of a trade and needs to be managed in a manner, which is consistent with the individual style of each trader. This will be dependent on each trader’s personality and time frame. Assessing market conditions can be categorised into core areas where one need to consider the risk profile in his/ her trade. This risk needs to be assessed also in line with your trading objectives. Active traders will tend to add and take off risk for each new swing in the market, whilst passive investors will ride minor retracements looking to achieve larger reward targets. Following are some areas where risk can be managed throughout a trade as well as what to look out for at these points that indicate that the risk is increasing; • At Entry: Stop loss risk. • Distance from Moving Average: Price exhaustion risk. • “M” Pattern: Price retest failure risk. • Candlestick Tails and Shadows: Price rejection risk. • Period Close: Price rejection risk. • Reducing Range: Trend momentum risk. • Support or Resistance: Price level failure risk. It is necessary that how an individual plan to address the risk management needs to be included as a critical part of the trading plan in order to protect the invested capital and preserve the profits. One need to have strategies in place for how he will deal with the different areas throughout a trade and how he will know when risk is increasing to a point where action needs to be taken either to protect profits or capital. Follow your trading plan, Remain disciplined and keep learning :) More elements will follow... Like, share, Comment and follow us to keep updated on our professional trading ideas and education :)
FX_IDC:USDWTIEducation
by SMPTrader
A 3 Day Trend IndicatorA 3 day chart is very useful in terms of being able to see a major trend reversal. It eliminates the noise of daily or lower timeframe charts and shows the change in trend faster than the higher timeframes such as the weekly and monthly. Keep track of the candles and look for a higher high and higher low candle for the first signal. The USOIL chart above shows a sequence of 3 day candles that have lower lows and lower highs for the past 8 or more candles, clearly showing that the major trend is down. Short risk on oil is out of the question as long as there's no higher high and higher low 3 day candle. As soon as there's one, at least a minor change in trend can be anticipated and traders are likely to switch to short risk.
TVC:USOILEducation
by Zoen_Trieste
3
Financial Market Introduction 101SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY Financial Market Introduction 101 a) Market participants Market Participants include those parties that are involved in the operations of investment companies. Their control in the market is necessary and they should be well aware of the changes in the market. 1. Brokers and dealers handle trade activities between the buyers and sellers of currencies by charging a fee. They are the crucial part of the FOREX market, which acts as a medium between buyers and sellers. 2. Investment advisers are individuals who provide investment advice to investors by issuing reports regarding the analysis of investment securities. 3. The investor is one of the main participants of the financial market as funds are allocated to them as a capital to gain financial returns in future. 4. A central bank is one of the monetary authority and it regulates the state's currency, interest rates and money supply. Performance of the commercial banking system is also overviewed by the Central bank of respective countries. b) The Trading Market Trading market is a place where trading of currency and securities are done. The market includes brokers and investment experts who provide active services as traders on the basis of their education and knowledge regarding the market. They take investment decisions on the basis of different trading methodologies and data from past years to determine the most profitable investment. c) The Best Time to Trade Best time during the year Previous yearly records show that October and September are considered as the best months to invest in the FOREX. The main reason is due to the price bumps, which usually arises during the month of November and December, due to the seasonal changes. Best time during the Month The best time of the month to invest in the FOREX is during the first five and last five days of the month. The fact was illustrated in research conducted by Professor Ogden’s, which determines different types of investment return that are paid in the last first few days of the month. This "regularity of payments" can enable the investors to generate profit on their investments. 1. Municipal bonds interest payments are made up to 90% 2. 70% of corporate bonds principal payments 3. Preferred stock dividends are paid up to 65% 4. 45% of all common stock dividends. d) Market Cycles Market cycles are considered as the key to determining the maximum returns. The market cycle can be divided into 4 phases: Accumulation Phase • The accumulation phase arises after the market decline and experienced traders start to buy after figuring that the worst position of the market is ended. • At this time period, currency price valuations are pretty enough that they can play an essential role in profit generation. However, in this stage, prices are flattered and every seller in the market knows that the buyer will get a healthy discount. Mark-up Phase • A Mark-up stage the market stability moves forward towards the higher market moves. During this time media stories usually determine that the worst period of trading is over, however, increase in unemployment can arise during this period. • At the maturity of this phase, investors use bandwagon because of their fear regarding the decrease in market prices. A bandwagon is a group including technicians who analyses the market prices to recognise the changes in market direction and sentiment. The Distribution Phase • Within this time period, sellers dominate the market. The bullish market sentiments can turn the market cycle towards the mixed sentiment. Prices in this phase stay locked, which can last for some weeks and months. • Even the timing models do not flash any signals to buy the currency. This phase can be affected due to the bad economic news or adverse geopolitical event. Mark-Down Phase • This stage can be most painful for the investors, those who still hold their previous FOREX reserve can get huge losses, as they would have to sell them even at the lower prices at which they have bought the currency. • However, this phase determines the buying signals to the early innovators, which can enable them to generate returns in future once the prices got higher. This stage also demonstrates that it is not the good period to sell the FOREX. e) Days of the Week 1. Throughout the whole week, Monday is considered as most the best day to buy FOREX, as the prices usually show a decline. A study conducted on "A Survey of the Monday Effect Literature" reveals that decline in the prices can be the reason of bad news that was released during the weekend. 2. Conversely, if Monday is considered as the best day to buy FOREX, Friday is determined as the most feasible day to sell it. As it is better to sell the reserve before the weekend due to changes of price decreases which can affect the profitability of investment, in case of selling it at lower prices on Monday. 3. Heading towards Tuesday trading can flourish a little. The reason behind this fact is that opinions are formed by the traders and they have started taking their positions in the market. Therefore, this can make a good day for trading in the market. 4. Wednesday shows the same kind of trend in trading followed by Tuesday or usually depicts bigger price moves and is considered as the second-best day of the week for trading. 5. Thursday, it quickens. Thursday is considered as the days when huge profits can be made by the investors. Investing in the right currency can enable the investor to generate huge profits. f) Hours of the Day Trading in the morning time is not a good idea as market prices and volumes can change roughly. It is assumed by experts that these are considered as volatile hours and several new releases can affect the investment outcomes adversely. However, trading in the middle of the day can be favourable for the investor, as prices mainly remain stable during this time period. Several time frame analysis is utilised by the investor to select the most appropriate time for trading. g) Swing Approach Swing-Traders analyses the swing chart within the day so that they can take advantage of favourable price changes in the marketplace, and this affords them the benefit of not having to watch markets continuously while they are trading. Once they find an opportunity in terms of increase in FOREX prices, they place the currency on sale and then constantly keep a check on the progress of the pricing. The approach has different optimal time frames, which include: • Daily, and Weekly Charts • 4 Hour, and 1 Hour charts...... Please let me know if you would like to know more Happy trading :) "In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable" Robert Arnott
FX_IDC:USDWTIEducation
by SMPTrader
Figuring out approximate trading volumes....All data about CME futures is available on their site. Same with ICE, same with the euro indices future exchange(s). For the rest I hunted around the internet and tried finding several sources that said the same and made sure it made sense. ***** Currencies ****** All the forex pairs: I do not really know, but the volume is huge don't worry. EURUSD alone is maybe 1 trillion, the big minors a couple hundred billions . Instant fills low spreads etc. ***** Gold and Black Gold ***** Gold: CME futures volume are around 30 billion US dollars. But the biggest volume comes from the biggest financial center in the world: the city in London. Cannot tell exactly, but the average daily volume is around 150-250 billions dollars. There is probably just a few dozen bil elsewhere. So in total we can say we are in the area of 200 billion usd. Oil (WTI only): Looking at Nov contracts only, ICE + CME = Over 50 billion usd . So it is big. ***** Indices ***** DJIA: On the CME, E-mini Dow contracts get traded with a volume of a little over 150.000 contracts a day. Which means in usd terms 150k * 5 * 26666 = 20 billion. DAX: On www.eurexchange.com The dax futures for december got traded for a volume of 85,000. A future represents 25 euros per point, so I suppose 25 * 12250 (just like CME they are too stupid to give the volume in euro or dollar). So... 25 billion euros ? Or more? Plus the other contracts. Whatever it is getting on my nerves. It is big this is what matters. Really volatile good to trade. Top tier with EUR/USD. Probably the best indice to trade. S&P 500: Cannot tell, but on the CME the E-mini S&P 500 200 billion us dollar ermaghad. I knew it was popular. E-Mini Nasdaq 100 Future: 50 billion us dollar. FTSE 100 Index Future : 6 billion £. About 8 billion usd. I have to run backtesting on this chart a bit, I am not sure I really like it. Don't know well. CAC40 INDEX FUTURE : 5 billion euros. I do not really like that chart, and volume not that great compared to the really big ones. Euro Stoxx 50 Future : 30 billion euros. I do not care about the east asia indices, they move at night for me. I would have liked to trade the nikkei and CHN a share indice, but nevermind. ***** Bonds ***** Some are good, but I am just not interested. FX + a few indices + Gold + Oil is enough I do not want to be too much of a jack of all trades. So I am not checking the volumes. US10YR got a volume of over 100 billions thought. ***** Now, for the filth ***** Soybean futures: 5 billion usd for november contract. Wanted to trade this because that's what Jim Simons traded when he started XD But I do not like the chart this much. Screw it. Might be a good niche thing idk. High grade copper: 6 billion usd . Chart seems ok, but I am not sure. Plus spread is a little high for chasing small moves. It is not very much correlated to Gold. Bitcoin: According to coinmarketcap the volume is 4 billion usd (without Korea but they do not add that much). I wonder how much of this is wash trading also. Chart is really really bad. Objectively, I simply can not recommend trading this. Could be a niche, but 50 times more people are interested in Bitcoin that EUR/USD what a niche! It is sideways all the time, but word on the street most traders are range traders that "buy low oversold but sell high overbought" and fail over and over, according to some people I do not know I can trust that say they looked at a broker data. Here you have it. The really big stuff representing the world economy with huge volume is going to be a dozen forex pairs, gold, oil, bonds, big indices, and that's it. of course they all have very large volumes. Personally the really big volume ones are my favorite. I do not think volume is the sole reason but maybe I am delusional and that is the only reason? But I knew about and sometimes looked at the Dow Jones when I was a kid I did not even know you could buy and sell the stuff. It is there since the 19th century and I always like that one. CAC40 I heard about all the time on the french radio/tv. Of course one can do anything, trading tiny penny stock (there is a strategy that consists of shorting pump and dump as they fall), or trading orange juice, why not. Usually the niche stuff is more for people that work in that area or know it well, right?
Education
by MrRenev
RV Simplifed - Krümel’s VoodooRV Simplified: I get this question all the time, and even though the concept is simple, many people have a hard time getting their heads around it. Here is snapshot of above at time of publish. Sept 19, 2018, 7:30am ET. As the above LIVE chart will not last more than a day.. accurately. ——————- Q- When DXY falls, WTI follows right? A- No.. they fall and rise at different rates, on some Timeframes they will be inverted (say 10min) while on 4hr they will both trend in same direction. I look at the value of oil in Dollar , as well as other currencies. But oil is priced in dollars.. so it will always gravitate to that level. This is based on the amount of volumes being traded in other currencies. (I believe) . Q- So having a weaker pound, yen and eur will equate to oil price going up as we get more dollars? right? A- Sure.. and vice verse.. Let’s say nobody trades oil for 1 hr. But during that time the Doller dropped by 10%! Those wanting to buy oil from you in EUR, would need to pay 10% more to keep you even, or you would need to sell at 10% loss. BUT -If I’m buying from you and in dollar. Price doesn’t change as we are both using dollars. - Extreme example. So the price of oil is based on what buyer is willing to pay.. if those in U.K. (above example) are willing to pay the 10%, but most of the buyers are in US. The price will only go up buy the amount of volume those U.K. buyers represent. Now do that for EUR, YEN, GBP, and Doller.. that’s RV! Lastly - I treat SPX like a currency (normalized to dollar) SPX is a great scale on daily movement. Not always coupled but use 2 day range to set scale. I think this has to do with the ETFs and truly they are the volume in PaperOil.
TVC:USOILEducation
by BigEz
1