Education excerpt: OPECThe Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is a permanent intergovernmental organization with main goal to coordinate and unify the petroleum policies of its member countries. This pertains mainly to securing fair and stable pricing in the oil market; efficient and regular supply of petroleum to consuming nations and fair return on capital to the producing countries.
The OPEC was established in Baghdad, Iraq in 1960 by five countries. Founding countries were: Iraq, Islamic Republic of Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. One year later the organization was joined by Qatar in 1961. After that Indonesia and Libya followed in 1962. United Arab Emirates joined the cartel in 1967 and Algeria in 1969. Then Nigeria became member of the OPEC in 1971, Ecuador in 1973 and Gabon in 1975. Few decades later, Angola joined the OPEC in 2007, Equatorial Guinea in 2017 and Congo in 2018.
Ecuador suspended its membership in 1962. However, it rejoined the cartel in 2007. But then again in 2009 Ecuador withdrew its membership from OPEC. Similarly, Indonesia suspended its membership in 2009 and rejoined the cartel in 2016 only to leave it again in 2016. Gabon also suspended its membership in 1995. Although, Gabon reactivated its membership in 2016. Qatar was the last country to terminate its membership in 2019.
Current members:
1. Iraq
2. Iran
3. Kuwait
4. Saudi Arabia
5. Venezuela
6. Libya
7. United Arab Emirates
8. Algeria
9. Nigeria
10. Gabon
11. Angola
12. Equatorial Guinea
13. Congo
The OPEC's executive organ is called the Secretariat and it is run by the Secretary General. Secretariat was originally established in 1961. It also functions as headquarters for the organization. In the beginning, OPEC had its headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland for five years. However, OPEC's headquarters were moved to Vienna, Austria in 1965. Executive organ is responsible for implementation of all resolutions passed by the Conference. Secretariat also conducts research and fullfills all decisions made by the Board of Governeros.
The Secretary General is the representative of the OPEC who simultaneously acts as Executive of the Secretariat. The Secretary General is electable role and its term last three years. Although, there is possibility to renew this term once. The Secretary General is assisted by the Office of the Secretary general and several other officers and staff members of the OPEC. The Office of the Secretary general helps the executive chief of the Secretariat to maintain efficient relations with relevant international organizations and governments. Another important organ of the organization is the Legal Office which supervises legal matters of the Secretariat and provides legal advice to the Secretary General. In addition to that, there is also the Research Division that consists of three departments: Data Services, Energy Studies and Petroleum Studies. The Research Division is responsible for conducting research with regards to the energy and related matters. Infrastructure and services are provided by the Support Services Division.
OPEC Fund
The OPEC Fund for International Development is international finance development institution that was established in 1976. It consists of 12 members: Algeria, Ecuador, Gabon, Indonesia, IR Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. Its purpose is to provide financial help to the developing countries and support advancement in these low-income and middle-income countries.
Disclaimer: This content serves solely educational purpose.
Oil
How do you trade with Correlation?How do you trade with Correlation?
You can trade on forex pair correlations by identifying which currency pairs have a positive or negative correlation to each other. I have identified above the 3 main correlation pairs which correlate best with each other. In the conventional sense, you would open two of the same positions if the correlation was positive, or two opposing positions if the correlation was negative, for example when OIL increases in value, the Canadian Dollar tends to increase in value. This is because Canada is among the top 5 oil producing and exporting countries making them directly correlate.
CHF & GOLD Correlation
Both the Swiss Franc (CHF) and physical gold have acted as reserve 'currencies' thereby establishing a relationship between the gold price and Swiss Franc . Despite some differences, the Swiss Franc and the gold price are correlated and the similarities shared by the two can be clearly identified. This the Swiss National Bank has a huge amount of Gold Reserves and is one of the largest possessors of gold reserves worldwide. This also gives the Swiss Franc direct correlation with gold as the government passed a legislation that the Swiss Franc must be backed by gold .
Why is it important
Correlation is important when trading your strategy as you can manipulate the market and gain more confluences to confirm your entries. For example if you are focusing on the Canadian Dollar and can see a bullish trend and an entry point, OIL must also be bullish due to the correlation and you can confirm your analogy as you have analysed 2 correlating pairs which are both bullish .
Global events - the last 18 Months. I recently posted a timeline of Bitcoin events as well as record several videos on the current Elliott Wave moves around Bitcoin, DXY and a few Forex pairs.
Here’s a link to the Bitcoin timeline;
Looking back at the last 18 months or so now, I wanted to cover some of the significant events that have taken place, which would have had some (but not as much as you think) of an effect on the Elliott counts as a whole. For those of you not familiar with Elliott, there is a link in the ‘related ideas’ section covering the basics.
So, let’s go back in time;
Brexit announced back in 2016 – carried through and completed in 2020.
Thus, kicking off the year with a fair size event, the global markets not quite sure what the fall out would be, where the damage would come and of course if there where to be profitable positions to obtain. An awful lot of hesitation & fear seen in the market.
Jump forward to the next big event; although COVID-19 was technically pre 2020, the real effects did not start to emerge until early 2020 when the world went into LOCKDOWNS, crazy mayhem soon followed and has not really disappeared since.
After the world starts to go mad! A few other things happen during this period!
- Oil goes negative for the first time in HISTORY
- Gold hits $2,000
- S&P creates an all-time high
If this was not enough to cause global confusion, we also had an interesting period in the United States.
All though there are plenty of other events that have shaped this last 18 months or so, you can clearly see with so much – the charts will be a little more sporadic, a little harder to read. So, although methods such as Elliott and Wyckoff are still very powerful.
Even Wyckoff Schematics got a good run in the social media platforms! (Probably kicked that off in March) 😉
Interesting times ahead - @TradingView community, take care of yourself and keep in mind! It’s been a crazy 18-months, 2 years!
**(This is not a trade idea, even a bias - it's just highlighting how insane these last 18-months have been)
For education on Wyckoff and Elliott - see my bio below;
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsHigh-Beta – AUD, CAD and NZD benefited from rising commodity prices on Tuesday, as markets set aside concerns about the spread of the Delta coronavirus variant. The notable outperformer in the commodities complex was oil prices, with WTI approaching $68 per barrel, up almost $2.50/+3% on the day.
Indeed, following today’s strong performance in WTI, TD Securities noted that: “With the impact on demand fueling chatter that OPEC+’s next monthly output hike could be delayed, and China’s “Zero-Covid” strategy appearing to have quickly contained the outbreak, crude oil could once again have a solid footing to challenge the $70s.”
The Importance of Understanding the Commodities MarketIn this educational post, I'll be explaining the reason why both investors and traders need to understand the commodities market.
The commodities market is a market in which raw, hard, and soft commodities are traded.
Examples of commodity assets include gold, oil, wheat, grain, copper, and even livestock.
While these aren't commonly traded markets among retail investors, understanding assets within the realm of commodities can provide an edge in trading and investing.
Benefits to Investors
- The primary reason that investors needs to understand the commodity market is because it helps provide an overall picture of the entire financial market.
- For instance, in the case of Nickel, Copper, Zinc, and other industrial metals, the price action differs depending on the market cycle, and certain metals are sensitive to, and heavily affected by specific industries.
- Popular commodities like Gold and Oil’s price action reflects the overall market trend and sentiment.
- As such, a retail investor with a deep understanding in commodities is capable of looking at the stock market from a different angle.
- Secondly, understanding commodities provides a huge advantage in terms of portfolio management.
- How 'well' you have invested, isn't simply determined by your annual return.
- Your sharpe ratio (your return divided by the volatility) tells a more accurate story.
- In order to succeed as a retail investor, you need to focus on increasing your sharpe ratio, or your risk adjusted return.
- And the best way to do so, is to diversify, specifically by looking at the correlation between certain assets.
- There are a plethora of assets in the commodities market that provide a great hedge / means of diversification against the stock market.
- Leveraging this knowledge will help investors design a portfolio that provides them great risk-adjusted-returns.
Benefits to Traders
- The commodities market can be a great opportunity for traders, as long as they spend their time getting used to the market.
- Normally, when the stock market is overbought, or when it demonstrates sideways action, traders often make the mistake of overtrading.
- Traders enter positions at suboptimal levels, because they have no option but to trade at the stock market.
- However, understanding the commodity market gives them an edge. The best analogy to explain this, is like playing online poker.
- When playing poker, the player waits for good hands to appear, so he can make a bet in his favor.
- When he plays online poker, he can have multiple games going on at once, and play the game where he gets the upper hand.
- In the same vein, when a trader knows how to trade commodities, instead of waiting for a good entry in the stock market, he can simply trade assets within the commodities market.
- If you think stocks are overvalued, there’s a chance for you to move onto gold, silver, oil, or even industrial metals.
- You can take a look at multiple assets, and find one that has a good risk/reward ratio right now.
Conclusion
The commodity market is a market that is huge in size, yet often overlooked my many, if not most retail traders and investors. However, understanding which assets are traded, their price action (in relation to other assets), can help both investors and traders acquire an edge.
OIL PRICE IS SUFFERING | CASE STUDY
Oil price is suffering on the back of OPEC and allies (OPEC+) deal to boost oil supplies.
Expectations of growing supplies after OPEC news and depressed demand amid rise in coronavirus cases is denting prices.
Oil case study using Market structure and Wyckoff method.
Methodology overview & how we determine entries & exits (part 3)Hello.
Here is a quick 4-min video which mentions 3 indicators I have been using for many years.
- A modified ADX
- A short-term momentum indicator (it is not the Momentum Indicator... instead, it gives us the current momentum)
- A mid-term momentum indicator
This methodology includes other indicators but this video features those 3 indicators.
Thanks.
F. Normandeau
A "Welcome to" Pinescript codingThis simple idea is an intro to @TradingView & @PineCoders
Nothing fancy or complex, if you are already coding - you can skip this.
simple MA build walk through & adding a second MA.
If you want to get into coding, then here's the basic introduction.
FYI - I am not a coder, 21 years trading experience and know a bit about the instruments - but new to actual coding, especially in Pine.
Hope it helps someone!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
The Basics - Trend LinesTrend lines are used in technical analysis to define an uptrend or downtrend. Traditionally, uptrend lines are made by drawing a straight line through a series of ascending higher troughs (lows). ... With downtrends, trend lines are formed by drawing a straight line through a series of descending lower highs.
In an uptrend, the “imaginary line” acts as support and in a downtrend, the line connecting the points at swing highs become the resistance.
Although we can go into what and why – the logic for trend line, is to keep it simple. It’s another subjective area and people like to spot patterns. It’s human nature.
This shows in it's most basic form the concept of a trend line.
In an uptrend we want to see, higher highs as well as higher lows as shown below;
And in a down trend, the opposite is true - Lower highs & lower lows to create the pattern as per main image of this post.
Many other techniques and indicators use this concept, and perhaps the most famous being Elliott waves.
Here's a post on Elliott basics;
This then all points back to Dow Theory - where markets have 3 cycles and 3 waves (another lesson for another time) in short;
Here's also a post covering the Dow basics;
You can also use Moving averages as part of "working out the trend"
And her is another simple guide to MA's (moving Averages)
We thought it would be interesting to post, more of a beginners post that our usual stuff. Hope this helps some of the newer traders.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
XLE - people are bullish.... but...A lot of people are bullish in Oil just like a lot of people were bearish when Oil was over $140 and Bearish when Oil was down a year ago.
You have to look at your chart and trade when you are confident.
I was confident in Late march and in November.
Right now, I prefer to stay aside and wait for the fog to clear. IF it is bullish, there will be plenty of chance to trade.
Crude Oil Spreads: A Quick Intro.Spreads are complex instruments. This is just an introduction and some ideas to get our brains ticking over. I had started writing a guide to understanding these three types of spreads, but it just got a little long. It might be easier to do it this way:
What do you see above?
Here are some observations to get started:
1
All spreads topped out well before June Crude Oil topped out. From about 17th Feb, those spreads stopped gaining. Could spreads be a way to take a contrary position as a trend exhausts itself, and have a little room for error? It certainly is here (although not always the case).
2
Look at the ATR for each. Spreads show lower volatility.
3
Correlations (the CC shows the spread correlation to the underlying June contract). Correlations seem strong during a trend then do their own thing at other times. Change creates opportunity. Constant correlations are not as fun.
4
Basic spreads: bull and bears – are directional. That is, they move closely with the underlying. More complex spreads, like the fly and condor seem to be suited to shifting sentiment along the forward curve.
5
Flies and condors are very similar. The condor tends to have a little more volatility than the fly. In this case, it’s not much.
-
It can be a complex subject, worthy of something closer to a book, than a comment here, but it’s a start.
Just a warning – going down the spread trading path might change everything.
-
A couple of futures markets where flies and condors are often traded: Crude, Natural Gas, Grains, Eurodollars (and most other STIRs). Options - that's a totally different chat....
You Can't Predict Which Trade Will Succeed. How To Deal?This is why I prefer to open many small positions - you never know which one will be successful!
---
How to understand price action.
It is very easy to read price action if you have a reference point. These support/resistance lines are there to help you read where the buyers and sellers are likely to make a stand.
You can also think of these indicators as moving pivot points .
MasterChartsTrading Price Action Indicators show good price levels to enter or exit a trade.
The Blue indicator line serves as a Bullish Trend setter.
If your instrument closes above the Blue line, we think about going Long (buying).
For commodities and Forex, when your trading instrument closes below the Red line, we think about Shorting (selling).
For Stocks, I prefer to use the Yellow line as my Bearish Trend setter (on Daily charts ). A stock has to close below the Yellow line first, then rally towards the Red line and top out there. This is where I would short it.
Be sure to hit that Follow button! Please find me on social networks via the link on my profile page for more ideas from @MasterCharts!
📚 What To Look for When Charting Here is a chart of EURCAD. There were various opportunities available both short term and long term. Once you can identify chart patterns, you can easily anticipate where price will go next.
A great chart pattern that I always use is flags - Bull Flags and Bear Flags. In the chart you can see that many times price impulsed and then created a flag and then carried on with the move. Flags can be found both in higher timeframes as well as lower time frames.
Be sure to look out for them!
Inter-market analysis, MARKET CRASH vs. CORRECTION Market crash usually have a devastating effects on prices in commodities and energy market. As you see in the charts, we see how .com bubble, housing bubble, burst and COVID-19 pandemic affected oil price in the past.
What we see started since early February 2021 in the market has not the defined criteria of a market crash, and seems to be a correction. Although the stock market is in the red zone, we see slight changes in prices in commodities and energy market.
In conclusion, whether it is a correction or early market crash, it would be better to sit out, monitor and reevaluate the situation.
Keep in mind the future outlook is pretty much different from Feb-March 2020, when a pandemic was just started(once in a lifetime experience). IMO: soon recovery phase will start in most developed countries followed by developing countries.
The future outlook is actually bright and United States market could experience an economic boom because:
A: a year from now, most of the population will be vaccinated and ready to back to business!
B: Expansionary Monetary policy will enhance exports, stimulate the demand, and cause inflation.
*** some sector like commercial real state & fossil fuels will not fully recover because their outlook is compromised by e-commerce and clean sustainable energy companies.
OIL10.4.20 I am generally satisfied with the video, but I wasn't clear at the end because I was worried about upload failures for the video. Please read this for a minute so the end of the video will be more clear: oil has traded lower to a support area, but it closed near the low of the daily bar. There will be some traders who think in terms of probabilities... think that the market is likely to move lower because it's a bearish swing that closed near its low>>>and they might be correct. From a risk reward point of view, you can find a relatively close structural stop... and because of this, even knowing that the market may have a slight edge for sellers... you may be willing to take the long trade. On the other hand, even if the market favors the price moving lower, there is no nearby structural stop to manage a short trade... and that may be enough to walk away from the trade. It is for me, personally. Bad R:R filters out lots of trades for me, personally. This is because I have a core belief that I will find better trades, and I don't need to settle for this trade.
OIL (VIDEO IDEA UPDATED) - AMAZING RESULT Last night video idea ended up being a HUGE success.
Oil did drop up to 6% at some point and closed the day at a 4% minus!
Take a look at yesterday's video and notice how the price of Oil did drop indeed and how it rebounded and stopped at our previous support which now became a resistance.
Technical analysis for a seminar!
Bitcoin set to smash ATH in the next 8 to 12 WKS thanks to......Astronomical returns possible: Bitcoin set to smash ATH in the next 8 to 12 WKS thanks to "Big Oil" signal after SPX setting ATH's >> WK 16 DEC 19 63% 8 WKS >> WK 25 SEPT 18 437% 11 WKS >> WK 28 JAN 13 1383% 10 WKS. The only time signal did not work was when bitcoin MACD histogram was in red. CAVEAT: WTI Crude Oil Weekly MACD line (source HIGH) has not yet closed >0. Big Oil signal still needs to confirm. NOT ADVICE. DYOR.