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How to PREDICT MARKETS! Tops and BottomsIn this video, I go over the following in great detail: Predicting Markets with Williams %R, RSI, and MACD Predicting market movements can be challenging, but combining the Williams %R, Relative Strength Index (RSI), and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicators can provide powerful insights for traders. Williams %R measures the current closing price relative to the high-low range over a specific period, helping identify overbought or oversold conditions. RSI gauges the speed and change of price movements, also indicating overbought or oversold levels. MACD analyzes the relationship between two moving averages of a security's price, identifying potential buy or sell signals. By using these three indicators together, traders can: Confirm Trends: When all three indicators align, it strengthens the signal for a potential trend continuation or reversal. Identify Entry and Exit Points: Overbought or oversold signals from these indicators can help pinpoint optimal entry and exit points. Reduce False Signals: Combining multiple indicators can help filter out false signals, increasing the reliability of predictions.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by RonnieV29
1
Understanding The Basics Of AI/Inference Engine ConstructionRecently, there has been a lot of discussion related to my SPY Cycle Patterns and how they work. In short, without disclosing proprietary code/quants, I built an inference engine based on Fibonacci, GANN, and Tesla theories. Part of this inference engine is to identify the highest probable outcome related to the patterns. This is not rocket-science. This is the same process your brain does when determining when and what to trade. The only difference is I'm doing a bunch of proprietary calculations/quants related to data and price theory in the background, then the inference engine determines the best, most likely outcome. Take a few minutes to watch this video and try to understand the difference between static and dynamic modeling. Again, my objective is to help as many traders as possible. My Plan Your Trade videos are my opinions based on my skills, knowledge, and proprietary modeling systems/tools. None of my tools are 100% accurate all the time - nothing is. But, I do believe the quality of information and instructional information I provide is invaluable to most traders. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by BradMatheny
2
Working To Unlock The 3-6-9 Secrets Of The MarketRecently, there have been a lot of questions related to my SPY Cycle Patterns and how they work. I've often stated that these patterns are based on Gann, Tesla, and Fibonacci's price theory. However, underlying all that is a core component related to the 3-6-9 (secrets of the universe) theory. This video tries to introduce you to the concepts of the 3-6-9 theory and how it overlays with Gann, Tesla, Fibonacci, Japanese Candlesticks, and more. My focus for the past 24+ months has been to unlock this theory's secrets and develop a practical use component (code) that attempts to provide very clear future trading/price predictions. Spend some time watching this video. See what you think and open your mind to the concept that price moves through construction and destruction phases (likely based on the 3-6-9 concepts). At the end of this video, I share some practical knowledge/examples showing why I believe the 3-6-9 theory is critical to unlocking the true secrets of market price action. I may never be able to unlock all of it, but I'm dedicated to trying to unlock as much as I can within my lifetime. This drives me to build code solutions and attempt to improve my skills. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
7
What To Expect After The Fed rate Cut: 9-18-2024 (Fed Day)This video is really designed to teach you some basics about Fibonacci Price Theory (FPT) Analysis. I wanted to show you how I see the charts using FPT and why, sometimes, I might be seeing things differently than you do on the charts. In my world, there are simple constructs that are evident on every chart. Supply & Demand zones, trending/flagging, and most importantly Fibonacci Price Theory constructs. Fibonacci Price Theory is the basis of all my analysis. It is the ground-level structure I look for in price on all charts. Then, I move to more advanced indicators and other analysis types to develop a Success/Failure outcome (trend/trade expectation). What I do is not hard to understand - it just takes practice. Fibonacci & Gann techniques are infinitely adaptable to any type of price action. I use another technique I call the Tesla Price Amplitude Arcs which often help me identify where/when price events may happen - but that is for another video (maybe). Ultimately, it comes down to understanding the structure and intent of price action (either success or failure) and how to position your trades for that success or failure of any price event. There are really two types of traders: trend traders and counter-trend traders. Trend traders try to catch the explosive price moves as trend events. Counter-trend traders try to catch major reversal levels in price and try to profit from counter-trend price moves (reversals/reversions). Using FPT, you can learn to execute both type of trading styles and improve your ability to see the market trends/setups more clearly. I hope this video helps you learn to become a better trader and helps you understand my Plan Your Trade videos more clearly. At least you'll be able to understand how I see charts and what drives much of my thinking related to chart. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
7
How I used Volume Spread Analysis to avoid FOMO trading!As a trader, I often battle with the fear of missing out (FOMO), a common pitfall among traders that can lead to impulsive, unprofitable trades. After reviewing my journal, I determined that chasing breakouts was costing me a significant portion of my account, so I studied Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) to help me reduce my urges. Here is how is used VSA to avoid FOMOing a trade. Before we get started, let's clarify two definitions: Volume: Measures the number of times buyers and sellers exchange 1 unit of an asset at an agreed-upon price. It doesn't inherently indicate whether a trend is bullish or bearish, but rather that a trade has occurred. Low volume suggests that few transactions have taken place because buyers and sellers couldn't agree on price. High volume suggests that buyers OR sellers felt they were getting a bargain at the current price, leading to many transactions. Spread/Range: The difference between the high and low of a candlestick. A narrow spread indicates little variance between what someone is willing to buy for and what someone is willing to sell for. A wide spread suggests that buyers and sellers have significantly different ideas of what the fair price is. In short, Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) interprets the relationship between trading volume and candle spread. When volume and spread agree, they are considered harmonious, and the trend will probably continue. If volume and spread disagree, there is a divergence, and the trend may be weak or could even reverse. In general, there are three main harmonious conditions: Narrowing spread should have narrowing volume. Average spread should have average volume. Widening spread should have widening volume. I spotted a bear flag consolidation on QQQ and decided I would trade the breakout to the downside. I took a break and came back to the chart just after the breakdown had occurred, missing my ideal entry. The candle spread was widening and my first thought was "I have to get in! This thing is free falling!" PAUSE! I reminded myself that I cant make every dollar in the market. If I miss this trade, there will always be another. "Be patient and wait for the market to come back to you." This is the chart after the initial break. What can we observe? QQQ broke the low of day with high volume and a widening red candle. Based on our definitions from earlier, we know that high volume means that buyers or sellers think they are getting a bargain so they are willing to transact as much as they can at current price. Given that price is falling, we can assume that the volume is due to aggressive selling. We remain patient and continue to watch for something to trade against. Next, we see a narrower range candle with a long lower shadow and above average volume. By definition, strong volume with a narrow range is a possible divergence. We know that narrow range candles mean that buyers and sellers generally agree on current price, but why would it close near the highs if the selling was so aggressive? Given that there is a long lower shadow and then a bullish candle close, we can infer that sellers were not willing to sell below $467.89. The buyers absorbed the selling at those prices. Fast forwarding, we notice that the volume and candle size has shrunk back to the average meaning buyers and sellers are in agreeance. The number of people willing to transact is decreasing. We also notice that a small range has formed. Buyers have not stepped in to buy above the previous low of day at $469.35 and the sellers have shown no effort to get back below $467.89. Now we have something to trade against instead of FOMOing in! We will look for a break of this range with increased volume. On the next candle we see bulls break out of the range with aggressive volume and a wide spread candle. Something of note is that the volume on this bull candle is less that the volume of our initial sell candle. If those sellers were still present, wouldn't they be selling at these higher prices and forcing the candle range to be narrow? This shows us that bulls are now in control and the selling from earlier was just a hoax. As we can see, the rest is history. If I FOMOed into the short as I had planned, this trade would have resulted in a loss. Being patient allowed me to realize that there was nothing to miss out on and actually allowed me to find a better trade. Key Notes Always journal your trades and review them Never FOMO into a trade. Be patient and wait for the trade to come to you! You dont need to take every trade to make money in the market. It is okay to miss a trade if it means protecting your account. Volume spread analysis is not 100%, but it can be useful in determining the strength of a trend.
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by Decam9
31
Developing Success With PineScript : Building Trigger MechanismsIn my ongoing quest to build better tools for traders, I continue to develop new quantitative trigger logic to improve the working versions I have already created. Trigger logic is complicated for most people because they fail to take the time to "focus on failure." Everyone builds trading systems focused on where the triggers work perfectly (trust me - I've seen/built a few hundred of them). But the most important thing to focus on is where it fails to generate a decent trigger and how you are going to filter it out or protect capital when that failed trigger hits. In this example, I highlight my new "Gun-Slinger" triggers and how my continued development is creating more advanced trading tools for skilled traders. I hope you enjoy it. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
NASDAQ:NVDAEducation
by BradMatheny
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 7-20 - PineScript Project FeedbackI've been playing with this little project for about 7 hours now (off and on). Pinescript is fun once you get the hang of the syntax and how it expects objects/booleans for most of the conditionals. Overall, I think this project is moving along nicely, but I wanted some feedback on the visuals. I'm trying to create something that will help daytraders see and understand broad trends arising from shorter-term price swings. I get a lot of questions related to how/when to identify key market price reversals - so I'm trying to develop a way to help traders understand and see where opportunities exist for better trades. Watch this video and let me know if you see anything I can do to improve the visuals or color controls. I want this to SHINE so people fall in love with it. Thank you. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
3
A Simple/Consistent Trading Strategy Using AnchorBars For AllI was talking with a friend today and he stated he just wanted something simple and consistent. He stated he was using Weekly, Daily, and 30 Min charts to try to confirm his trade setups. He did not want to swing for trades too often - only when the Weekly, Daily, 30 Min charts aligned. I've build multiple systems somewhat like the one I'm showing you in this video. The trick to managing this system is to avoid consolidation periods. When price settles into an extended sideways range - you want to cut your trading down to almost NOTHING and wait for a more defined trend. Here you go. Simple and easy. If you don't understand AnchorBars, you can learn more on my other TradingView videos. Go Get Some...
AMEX:DIAEducation
by BradMatheny
2
Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 26 - QQQ - (8th June 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis using ICT's Concepts in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions. A couple of things to note: - I cannot see news events. - I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range. - I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks In this session I will be analyzing Investco QQQ Trust (QQQ), starting from the 4-Month chart. If you want to learn more, check out my other videos on TradingView or on YT. If you are interested in private coaching, feel free to get in touch via one of my socials.
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by Road_2_Funded
👀 Three Black Crows. Bear Market Candlestick PatternThree Black Crows is a term used to describe a bearish candlestick pattern that can predict a reversal in an uptrend. Classic candlestick charts show "Open", "High", "Low" and "Close" prices of a bar for a particular security. For markets moving up, the candlestick is usually white, green or blue. When moving lower they are black or red. The Three Black Crows pattern consists of three consecutive long-body candles that opened with a gap above or inside the real body of the previous candle, but ultimately closed lower than the previous candle. Often traders use this indicator in combination with other technical indicators or chart patterns to confirm a reversal. Key points 👉 Three Black Crows is a Bearish candlestick pattern used to predict a reversal to a current uptrend, used along with other technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI). 👉 The size of the Three black crow candles, timeframe they appeared on, the gaps when they opened, the downward progression sequence, as well as their shadows can be used to judge whether there is a risk of a pullback on a reversal. 👉 The “Three Black Crows” pattern should be considered finally formed after the sequential closure of all three elements included in it. 👉 The opposite pattern of three black crows is three white soldiers, which indicates a reversal of the downward trend. But maybe more about that another time. Explanation of the Three Black Crows pattern Three Black Crows is a visual pattern, which means there is no need to worry about any special calculations when identifying this indicator. The Three Black Crows pattern occurs when the bears outperform the bulls over three consecutive trading bars. The pattern appears on price charts as three bearish long candles with or without short shadows or wicks. In a typical Three Black Crows appearance, bulls start the time frame with the opening price or gap up, that is, even slightly higher than the previous close, but throughout the time frame the price declines to eventually close below the previous time frame's close. This trading action will result in a very short or no shadow. Traders often interpret this downward pressure, which lasted across three time frames, as the start of a bearish downtrend. Example of using Three black crows As a visual pattern, it is best to use the Three Black Crows as a sign to seek confirmation from other technical indicators. The Three Black Crows pattern and the confidence a trader can put into it depends largely on how well the pattern is formed. Three Black Crows should ideally be relatively long bearish candles that close at or near the lowest price for the period. In other words, candles should have long real bodies and short or non-existent shadows. If the shadows are stretching, it may simply indicate a slight change in momentum between bulls and bears before the uptrend reasserts itself. Using trading volume data can make the drawing of the Three Black Crows pattern more accurate. The volume of the last bar during an uptrend leading to the pattern is relatively lower in typical conditions, while the Three Black Crows pattern has relatively high volume in each element of the group. In this scenario, as in our case, the uptrend was established by a small group of bulls and then reversed by a larger group of bears. Of course, this could also mean that a large number of small bullish trades collide with an equal or smaller group of high volume bearish trades. However, the actual number of market participants and trades is less important than the final volume that was ultimately recorded during the time frame. Restrictions on the use of three black crows If the "Three Black Crows" pattern has already shown significant downward movement, it makes sense to be wary of oversold conditions that could lead to consolidation or a pullback before further downward movement. The best way to assess whether a stock or other asset is oversold is to look at other technical indicators, such as relative strength index (RSI), moving averages, trend lines, or horizontal support and resistance levels. Many traders typically look to other independent chart patterns or technical indicators to confirm a breakout rather than relying solely on the Three Black Crows pattern. Overall, it is open to some free interpretation by traders. For example, when assessing the prospects of building a pattern into a longer continuous series consisting of “black crows” or the prospects of a possible rollback. In addition, other indicators reflect the true pattern of the three black crows. For example, a Three Black Crows pattern may involve a breakout of key support levels, which can independently predict the start of a medium-term downtrend. Using additional patterns and indicators increases the likelihood of a successful trading or exit strategy. Real example of Three black crows Since there are a little more than one day left before the closing of the third candle in the combination, the candlestick combination (given in the idea) is a still forming pattern, where (i) each of the three black candles opened above the closing price of the previous one, that is, with a small upward gap, (ii ) further - by the end of the time frame the price decreases below the price at close of the previous time frame, (iii) volumes are increased relative to the last bullish time frame that preceded the appearance of the first of the “three crows”, (iv) the upper and lower wicks of all “black crows” are relatively short and comparable with the main body of the candle. Historical examples of the Three Black Crows pattern In unfavorable macroeconomic conditions, the Three Black Crows pattern is generally quite common. The weekly chart of the S&P500 Index (SPX) below, in particular, shows the occurrence of the pattern in the period starting in January 2022 and in the next 15 months until April 2023 (all crows combinations counted at least from 1-Month High). As it easy to notice, in each of these cases (marked on the graph below) after the candlestick pattern appeared, the price (after possible consolidations and rollbacks) tended to lower levels, or in any case, sellers sought to repeat the closing price of the last bar in series of the Three Black Crows candlestick pattern. Bottom Line 👉 As well as in usage of all other technical analysis indicators, it is important to confirm or refute its results using other indicators and analysis of general market conditions. 👉 Does History repeat itself? - Partially, yes.. it does. This is all because financial markets (as well as life) is not an Endless Rainbow, and after lovely sunny days, earlier or later, dark clouds may appear again, and again.
SP:SPXEducation
by Pandorra
Trend Lines & Their Significance in Minervini's Trading StrategyIntroduction In the world of stock trading, trend lines are vital tools for investors and traders alike. Mark Minervini, an acclaimed swing trader, is known for his strategic use of trend lines in assessing the strength of stock movements. This article delves into Minervini's approach, highlighting how he utilizes trend lines to identify optimal trade entries and exits, and emphasizes the significance of upward trend consistency in his methods. Utilizing Trend Lines to Gauge Stock Movement Strength Minervini leverages trend lines to evaluate the momentum and strength of a stock's movement. By connecting the lows in an upward trend or the highs in a downward trend, he creates a visual representation of the stock’s trajectory. This technique allows him to discern the stock's current trend, be it bullish or bearish, and gauge its strength. A steeper trend line indicates a stronger movement, whereas a flatter line suggests a weaker trend. In Minervini’s strategy, the angle and longevity of these trend lines are critical factors in assessing a stock's potential for continued movement in its current direction. Identifying Trade Entries and Exits Trend lines are more than just indicators of stock movement; they are crucial for identifying potential trade entries and exits. Minervini uses two types of trend lines: support and resistance. A support line is drawn along the low points of a stock's price, indicating a level where the price tends to find support and bounce back upwards. Conversely, a resistance line connects the high points, highlighting a price level where the stock often faces selling pressure. For Minervini, a break above a resistance trend line signals a potential entry point, indicating that the stock might continue to climb. Similarly, a break below a support line might suggest an exit point or a short-selling opportunity, indicating that the stock could be entering a downtrend. These trend lines, therefore, play a pivotal role in his decision-making process, guiding him on when to enter or exit a trade. The Importance of Upward Trend Consistency In Minervini's method, consistency in an upward trend is a key factor. He looks for stocks that show a sustained upward trend, marked by higher highs and higher lows, which are typically indicative of strong buyer interest and positive momentum. This consistency not only suggests a robust bullish sentiment but also provides a measure of safety, as stocks in a consistent uptrend are less likely to experience sudden drops. Moreover, Minervini emphasizes the importance of volume in these trends. An upward trend accompanied by increasing volume can be a sign of strong investor confidence, adding further credence to the strength of the trend. Conversely, an upward trend with declining volume may signal a loss of momentum, prompting a more cautious approach. Conclusion Mark Minervini’s use of trend lines is a testament to their importance in stock trading. By carefully analyzing these lines for both support and resistance, and prioritizing stocks with a consistent upward trend, he is able to make informed decisions about trade entries and exits. For traders looking to enhance their strategies, incorporating Minervini's approach to trend lines can be a valuable addition to their trading toolkit, offering a clearer perspective on the strengths and potential directions of stock movements.
DJ:DJIEducation
by JS_TechTrading
✨❄️🌟 The Tutorial How-To Find a Magic on TradingViewFinancial markets just finished its memorial 2023. Whatever the numbers at the “Closing bell”, on your monitors and in your portfolios, there is no doubt that 2023 year’s Santa Rally will go down in history as one of the most outstanding in many years. In November and December, 2023 the U.S. stock market was rallying for the 9th consecutive week in a row. This was the longest ever upside streak in SP:SPX over the past 20 years, since the fourth quarter of 2003. Well.. just try to answer what happened with the market the past one time. Happy New 2024 Year! ✨❄️🌟🎅🎊🌲💫⛄️🌠✨❄️🌟🎅🎊🌲💫⛄️🌠
NASDAQ:NDXEducation
by Pandorra
2
NQ Uptrend Still BullishWhen evaluating whether to take a short or long position, it's crucial to observe current trends. For example, the NQ 4-hour chart maintains its uptrend as it hasn't broken any higher lows. This was evident during a live chat I observed today, where some traders were initiating short positions anticipating a "flush." However, their rationale wasn't clear. Understanding the shift in trends, characterized by breaking higher lows followed by forming lower highs and lower lows, is a key aspect in determining your trading bias across all time frames. Although the 4-hour trend is still strongly bullish, the 1 to 5-minute timeframe may exhibit a "pullback," offering short-term intraday shorting opportunities. However, it's important to be aware that this strategy goes against the dominant bullish trend in a higher time frame and is very high risk.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by AmpedTrading
Tech stock Vs Energy stocks. The Competition for Decades This is an education-style publication where the main graph is a comparison (ratio) between two ETFs (funds) managed by State Street Global Advisors Corporation, the creator of the world’s first ETF (well-known in nowadays as AMEX:SPY ) and an indexing pioneer. The first one ETF is The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund, AMEX:XLK . 👉 AMEX:XLK seeks to provide investment results that provide an effective representation of the Technology sector of the S&P 500 Index SP:SPX . 👉 AMEX:XLK seeks to provide precise exposure to companies from Technology hardware, storage, and peripherals; software; communications equipment; semiconductors and semiconductor equipment; IT services; and electronic equipment, instruments and components. 👉 AMEX:XLK is a place where securities of American World-known Technology companies like Apple Inc. NASDAQ:AAPL and Microsoft Corp. NASDAQ:MSFT , like Nvidia Corp. NASDAQ:NVDA and American Micro Devices NASDAQ:AMD , like Cisco Systems Inc. NASDAQ:CSCO and Adobe Inc. NASDAQ:ADBE meet together. 👉 In contrast with other Technology-related ETFs like NASDAQ:QQQ (Invesco Nasdaq 100 Index ETF) or NASDAQ:ONEQ (Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index ETF), stocks allocation in AMEX:XLK depends not only on their market capitalization, but also hugely on Technology industry allocation (like software, technology hardware, storage & peripherals, semiconductors & semiconductor equipment, IT services, communications equipment, electronic equipment instruments & components). That is why allocation of Top 3 holdings in AMEX:XLK ( Microsoft Corp. NASDAQ:MSFT , Apple Inc. NASDAQ:AAPL and Broadcom Inc. NASDAQ:AVGO ) prevails 50 percent of Funds assets under management. 👉 Typically AMEX:XLK holdings are Growth investing stocks. The second one ETF is The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund, AMEX:XLE . 👉 AMEX:XLE seeks to provide investment results that provide an effective representation of the energy sector of the S&P 500 Index SP:SPX . 👉 AMEX:XLE seeks to provide precise exposure to companies in the oil, gas and consumable fuel, energy equipment and services industries. 👉 AMEX:XLE allows investors to take strategic or tactical positions at a more targeted level than traditional style based investing. 👉 AMEX:XLE is a place where stocks of American World-known Oil companies like Exxon Mobil Corp. NYSE:XOM and Chevron Corp. NYSE:CVX , like EOG Resources Corp. NYSE:EOG and ConocoPhillips NYSE:COP , like Valero Energy Corp. NYSE:VLO and Phillips 66 NYSE:PSX meet each other. 👉 Weight of Top 3 holdings in AMEX:XLE (Exxon Mobil Corp. NYSE:XOM , Chevron Corp. NYSE:CVX and EOG Resources Corp. NYSE:EOG ) prevails 45 percent of Funds assets under management. 👉 Typically AMEX:XLE holdings are Value investing stocks. The main graph represents different stock market stages of work 🔁 Early 2000s, or post Dot-com Bubble stage, that can be characterized as Energy Superiority Era. There were no solid Quantitative Easing and Money printing. U.S. Treasury Bond Interest rates TVC:TNX , TVC:TYX as well as U.S. Federal Funds Rate ECONOMICS:USINTR were huge like nowadays. Crude oil prices TVC:UKOIL , TVC:USOIL jumped as much as $150 per barrel. The ratio between AMEX:XLK and AMEX:XLE funds collapsed more than in 10 times over this stage. 🔁 Late 2000s to early 2010s, or post Housing Bubble stage, that can be characterized as a Beginning of Quantitative Easing and Money printing. U.S. Treasury Bond Interest rates TVC:TNX , TVC:TYX as well as U.S. Federal Funds Rate ECONOMICS:USINTR turned lower. Bitcoin born. The ratio between AMEX:XLK and AMEX:XLE funds hit the bottom. 🔁 Late 2010s to early 2020s, or post Brexit stage, that can be characterized as a Continuation of Quantitative Easing and Money printing. U.S. Treasury Bond Interest rates TVC:TNX , TVC:TYX as well as U.S. Federal Funds Rate ECONOMICS:USINTR turned to Zero or so. Crude oil turned to Negative prices in April 2020 while Bitcoin hit almost $70,000 per coin in 2021. Ben Bernanke (14th Chairman of the Federal Reserve In office since Feb 1, 2006 until Jan 31, 2014) was awarded the 2022 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, jointly with Douglas Diamond and Philip H. Dybvig, "for research on banks and financial crises", "for bank failure research" and more specifically for his analysis of the Great Depression. The ratio between AMEX:XLK and AMEX:XLE funds becomes great and respectively with monetary stimulus hit the all time high. 🔁 Early 2020s, or post Covid-19 Bubble stage, that specifically repeats early 2000s Energy Superiority Era. There is no again Quantitative Easing and Money printing. U.S. Treasury Bond Interest rates TVC:TNX , TVC:TYX as well as U.S. Federal Funds Rate ECONOMICS:USINTR are huge nowadays like many years ago. Commodities prices like Wheat CBOT:ZW1! , Cocoa ICEUS:CC1! , Coffee ICEUS:KC1! , Crude oil prices TVC:UKOIL , TVC:USOIL jump again to historical highs. The ratio between AMEX:XLK and AMEX:XLE funds is fading to moderate levels that can be seen as 200-Month simple moving average. 💡 In a conclusion.. I wonder, how the history repeats itself. This is all because markets are cyclical, and lessons of history always still remain unlearned. 💡 Author thanks PineCoders TradingView Community, especially to @disster PineCoder for its excellent and simple script Quantitative Easing Dates . Based on this script, Easing Dates are highlighted at the graph.
AMEX:XLKEducation
by Pandorra
A Simple Method Of Evaluating Trade Setups For Everyone - PART IThis is a simple example of how anyone can attempt to understand price action, trade setups, and determine if the current trade setup is valid for any trading action. Unless you have a trading system that helps you identify highly successful trade setups, most people struggle to find opportunities before they turn into breakout trends (up or down). Ideally, most traders want to get into trades before the big breakout, or breakdown, happens. This video, part I of an extended series, will help you learn to use simple tools to identify qualified trade setups from invalid setups. You can trade whatever you want. But remember, the trend is your friend, and learning to understand price theory, trends, channels, and support/resistance is all you need to make better decisions. Watch this video to see if it helps you. Over the next few weeks, I'll create more videos highlighting simple techniques to help you become a better trader. I'll review dozens of charts and highlight what works and what doesn't. Trading is a matter of managing risks while attempting to generate profits. This will be a great way for me to share my thoughts with all of you while trying to help you learn techniques to help you build solid skills. Hope you enjoy this first video.
Editors' picks
NASDAQ:CSCOEducation
by BradMatheny
19
A Simple Method Of Evaluating Trade Setups For Everyone - IIIMore examples of trade setups and how I use my custom algos to help identify stronger trade opportunities from other symbols. In this example, near the end of this video, I review the QLD chart (Daily) which provides a very clear example of major trend vs. intermediate trend. It is very important trader learn to see these opportunities from all aspects. Please pay very close attention to the details I'm sharing related to trading concepts and theory. I'm trying to teach all of you to see charts in a different way. See PRICE as the driver of trends, and counter-trends, as Fibonacci Price Theory describes. Basic Rules of Fibonacci Price Theory: 1. Price is ALWAYS seeking new highs or new lows - ALWAYS. 2. Failure to establish a new high means price will attempt to retest/break recent/new lows. 3. Ultimate HIGH/LOW levels are critical to understanding major trends vs. intermediate trends. 4. If you have trouble identifying a clear trend on a Daily chart, try Weekly or 240 min as an alternative. 5. If you still can't identify trend clearly, wait it out. Price will ALWAYS attempt to make new highs/lows. Sometimes, you have to be patient and wait for consolidation trends to work themselves out. My objective is to show you how I look at charts and identify trade opportunities. Simply put, I just trying to help you see and understand simple TA theories and to help you learn to identify great trade opportunities. Hope you enjoy.
AMEX:QLDEducation
by BradMatheny
QQQ Order Flow - Selling Exhaustion Leads To Explosive GainsHey traders, QQQ is in an explosive uptrend as the AI narrative reaches fever pitch. However, as traders, all we care about is to look for long opportunities each and every time there is exhaustion by the sell-side. These exhaustions, signaled via the DIAMOND pattern, offer an incredible risk-reward... (10% gains on the first print and 5% so far). With the bullish structure in our favor as indicated via the OFA script, all we need is to wait for the entry trigger as new structures are formed. Be reminded, when using the OFA script, it comes with highly accurate signals that, at its core, apply 2 main areas of study: Magnitude: A major clue that will help determine the health of a trend is the type of progress by the dominant side in control of the trend. We need to ask the following question: Are the new legs in the active buy-sell side campaign as identified by the script increasing or decreasing in magnitude? Velocity: When it comes to the distance the price moves, the magnitude is only ½ the equation. The other ½ has to do with the velocity of the move or the speed. Was the new leg created after a fast and impulsive move? Or did price make a new low or high with the movement being sluggish, compressive and taking too long to form? A good rule of thumb is to count the number of candles it took to achieve a new leg. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by FlowState
Learning Fibonacci Price Theory - MUST WATCHEven though I got cut off after about 25 minutes, I'm sharing this with all of you to teach you how to use one fo the most important PRICE STRUCTURE features for any chart Fibonacci Price Theory. The consensus of all TA is that PRICE tells us everything. Fibonacci Price Theory is the REAL DEAL. Use it on a 1 minute, 5 minute, 60 minute, or Daily - ANY TIME-FRAME Use it in conjunction with other TA/Indicators. Use it with Elliot Wave analysis. USE IT. My experience is that all indicators/theories/strategies have strengths/weaknesses. If you are not aware of them (yet) - pay attention. Follow my research and I'll continue to try to share tidbits of advanced TA/Fibonacci with you. I created this to help my followers/friends learn one of the most critical price structure components of my own research. I see all price charts in the manner I've illustrated in this video. After more than 15 years of applied Fibonacci Price Theory/Structure - I can't help but NOT see price as "Fibonacci Fractals". Hope this helps.
NASDAQ:NVDAEducation
by BradMatheny
Here's Why the Tech-Led Selloff is Likely Over (for now)In this post, I will attempt to provide evidence to show why the tech-led selloff is likely to be over (for now). I will use the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and its inverse derivative, SQQQ, as my argument's basis. The inverse (short) ETF of the Nasdaq, SQQQ, has never closed a weekly candle above the Leading Span B of the Ichimoku Cloud (pink line in chart). Last week and the previous week, the weekly candle was very strongly resisted at this level. Now, the weekly and monthly momentum oscillators started to move in the opposite direction. This will not only make it much harder for SQQQ to pierce the line, but it could also result in SQQQ plummeting quickly, and therefore QQQ and the Nasdaq rebounding quickly. For comparison, many data points are covered in this chart, and there is a high statistical probability that the Nasdaq has bottomed. Not even during the peak fear of COVID-19, when the global economy shut down and governments feared millions of deaths, did SQQQ pierce the weekly Ichimoku Cloud. In December 2018 when the Fed was starting to rapidly roll off assets on its balance sheet and was raising interest rates, SQQQ still did not pierce the cloud. This fear is very similar to today's fear. Even further back, not even during the major flash crash in 2015 or on Black Monday in 2011 when the market crashed did SQQQ pierce the cloud. Today, hardly anyone remembers these episodes in stock market history. Similarly, in ten years or so, few people (except maybe those who sold all their positions at the market bottom) will remember what happened in May 2022. The NDTH is a chart of the percentage of Nasdaq 100 stocks that are above their 200-day moving average. It dropped to nearly 10 in May 2022, meaning almost 90% of Nasdaq 100 stocks were below their 200-day moving average. The last time this level was reached was in March 2020 right at the bottom of the COVID market crash. The NDTH has never dropped below 15 except during significant bottoms on the Nasdaq. There are many other examples in which the charts suggest, with high probability data, that we just experienced a significant bottom on the Nasdaq 100. (Eg. The Nasdaq 100 was supported on the monthly base line, the monthly candle is extremely bullish, the monthly EMA ribbon of the QQQ/SPY ratio chart strongly held the outperformance trend in place, inflation and interest rate charts are cooling. Although this may be a significant bottom, it does not mean a years-long bull span is ahead. Rather the charts suggest the panic selling has ended for at least the short to intermediate-term. To be fair, some charts suggest that the QQQ/SPY outperformance trend could be nearing the end of its decades-long run. (Credit to @Breakout_Charts for identifying this) If this occurs, then it could be the start of a new cycle, or even super cycle, whereby the Nasdaq underperforms for years. Finally, a point about market psychology. Bottoms occur when 'extreme fear' turns into just 'fear' (yes, there's actually an indicator that measures this). That indicator has moved significantly from 'extreme fear' towards 'fear'. With this said, there might be a lot of people who might comment on this post and say scary-sounding things about the state of the economy or stock market. If none of these fears existed among market participants, we would never even have gotten to this bottom. Never sell because of fear alone. Not financial advice. As always anything can happen. Just my thoughts. Leave a like if this was helpful and you'd like me to post more analyses. Please feel free to comment below if you have additional thoughts.
NASDAQ:SQQQEducation
by SpyMasterTrades
5
How to Calculate Probability in Price So many have asked for tutorials on some quant strategies. So this is my first tutorial for some basic quant trading strategies. This is not really a strategy in and of itself, this is to help you determine realistic price points as part of your overall strategy. You will need Excel to do this. If you like this kind of tutorial/find it helpful, let me know and I can continue posting similar stuff on how to apply some more basic quant strategies into your trading. Take care and trade safe!
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by Steversteves
7
Using different deflactors on IndexesHere I put up a series of deflactors on the Nasdaq 100 Total Return... I like to use Total Return Indexes becuase they acurately reflect the actual growth of the invested money, rather than simple price indexes... I picked the Nasdaq because as you may have noticed from previous posts the Nasdaq is the absolute winner in terms of performance in the last 15 years... also (unfortunately) I did not find a Total Return option for the S&P500 on Tradingview... actually it's quite bad out there, even spglobal.com doesn't seem to publish those anymore, much less deflated with CPI... Anyway, moving to the chart here we present a series of deflactors applied to the $NDX Total Return since INCEPTION: 1. Gold 2. CPI 3. CPI+DXY 4. M2 (Fred money stock) 5. REAL M2 (Fred money stock with CPI) I found the Real M2 the most interesting idea, for in a high monetary inflation environment, Real M2, purges the nominal M2 (total monetary inflation) of its price inflation "component", and comes to a somehwat more balanced deflaction than the original metric (435% performance using M2 Real, vs 275% using the Pure M2 deflactor)
NASDAQ:NTTREducation
by LotusTrading20
3
The cycles of the S&P500 | PART 1The cycles of the S&P500 / PART 1 This post introduces a study I'm conducting with the main objective of understanding the cycles and sub-cycles that the S&P500 Index has. Why am I studying the S&P500? Because it is the most relevant index in the world. There is not any other economy in the world that gets close to the returns of the US stock market as a whole, and also, we have a massive amount of data back from more than 100 years ago. So with all that said, let's start. The fundamental view I have regarding the market is that the price has moved between periods of fear and optimism through history, on a cycle that never stops. There is either Fear or Optimism, in other way impulses and corrections. On this chart, we can go through periods of optimism and fear caused by multiple factors, different governments, different geopolitical situations, massive crises, changes in interest rate; you name it, all of them are on this chart, the dot com bubble, the subprime crisis, the missile crisis with Cuba, wars, oil crisis, 1929, etc. The first conclusion I can make at first glance is that despite what was causing it, fear and optimism tend to have characteristics that we may be able to understand. This is a strong base for technical analysis as a discipline. Fear looks the same through several situations, and the same applies to optimism. That's why understanding the price is a powerful element to conclude where we are on the cycle. So what is the price telling us? In this post, we will not only go through the big cycles, but also we want to understand the smaller ones. Now I will put my main conclusions regarding the information I have found. THE BIG CYCLE: -------------------- Impulse 1: 1877 - 1881 = 4 Years / 152% from bottom to top. Correction 1: 1881 - 1897 = 16 Years / -41% from top to bottom. -------------------- Impulse 2: 1897 - 1902 = 5 Years / 144% Fromb bottom to top. Correction 2: 1902 - 1921 = 19 Years / -40% from top to bottom. -------------------- Impulse 3: 1921 - 1929 = 8 Years / 400% from bottom to top. Correction 3: 1929 - 1933 = 4 years / -84% from top to bottom. -------------------- Here we can observe a clear change in behavior regarding impulses. Until 1933 we observe short impulsive periods and long corrective periods. From 1933 until now, this trend reversed, we have long impulsive periods and short corrective periods compared to the past. -------------------- Impulse 4: 1933 - 1969 = 36 years / 2106% from bottom to top. Correction 4: 1969 - 1974 = 5 years / -48% from top to bottom. -------------------- Impulse 5: 1974 - 2000 = 26 years / 2500% from bottom to top. Correction 5: 2000 - 2009 = 9 years / -58% from top to bottom. -------------------- Impulse 6: 2009 - present = 13 years / 600% from bottom to top. In PART 2 of this series of posts , I will go through the sub-cycles we observe from 1933 until now. My main objective is to understand the similarities between these impulsive situations (impulse 4,5 and 6) Here I give you a snapshot of what will be coming: Impulse 4 with sub impulses and corrections: Impulse 5 with sub impulses and corrections: Impulse 6 with sub impulses and corrections: Here you can see the Days and % decline of each correction inside the impulses. Thanks for reading! I will be updating this soon.
SP:SPXEducation
by ThinkingAntsOk
9