Get started

QQQ

A Simple Method Of Evaluating Trade Setups For Everyone - IIIMore examples of trade setups and how I use my custom algos to help identify stronger trade opportunities from other symbols. In this example, near the end of this video, I review the QLD chart (Daily) which provides a very clear example of major trend vs. intermediate trend. It is very important trader learn to see these opportunities from all aspects. Please pay very close attention to the details I'm sharing related to trading concepts and theory. I'm trying to teach all of you to see charts in a different way. See PRICE as the driver of trends, and counter-trends, as Fibonacci Price Theory describes. Basic Rules of Fibonacci Price Theory: 1. Price is ALWAYS seeking new highs or new lows - ALWAYS. 2. Failure to establish a new high means price will attempt to retest/break recent/new lows. 3. Ultimate HIGH/LOW levels are critical to understanding major trends vs. intermediate trends. 4. If you have trouble identifying a clear trend on a Daily chart, try Weekly or 240 min as an alternative. 5. If you still can't identify trend clearly, wait it out. Price will ALWAYS attempt to make new highs/lows. Sometimes, you have to be patient and wait for consolidation trends to work themselves out. My objective is to show you how I look at charts and identify trade opportunities. Simply put, I just trying to help you see and understand simple TA theories and to help you learn to identify great trade opportunities. Hope you enjoy.
AMEX:QLDEducation
by BradMatheny
QQQ Order Flow - Selling Exhaustion Leads To Explosive GainsHey traders, QQQ is in an explosive uptrend as the AI narrative reaches fever pitch. However, as traders, all we care about is to look for long opportunities each and every time there is exhaustion by the sell-side. These exhaustions, signaled via the DIAMOND pattern, offer an incredible risk-reward... (10% gains on the first print and 5% so far). With the bullish structure in our favor as indicated via the OFA script, all we need is to wait for the entry trigger as new structures are formed. Be reminded, when using the OFA script, it comes with highly accurate signals that, at its core, apply 2 main areas of study: Magnitude: A major clue that will help determine the health of a trend is the type of progress by the dominant side in control of the trend. We need to ask the following question: Are the new legs in the active buy-sell side campaign as identified by the script increasing or decreasing in magnitude? Velocity: When it comes to the distance the price moves, the magnitude is only ½ the equation. The other ½ has to do with the velocity of the move or the speed. Was the new leg created after a fast and impulsive move? Or did price make a new low or high with the movement being sluggish, compressive and taking too long to form? A good rule of thumb is to count the number of candles it took to achieve a new leg. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by FlowState
Learning Fibonacci Price Theory - MUST WATCHEven though I got cut off after about 25 minutes, I'm sharing this with all of you to teach you how to use one fo the most important PRICE STRUCTURE features for any chart Fibonacci Price Theory. The consensus of all TA is that PRICE tells us everything. Fibonacci Price Theory is the REAL DEAL. Use it on a 1 minute, 5 minute, 60 minute, or Daily - ANY TIME-FRAME Use it in conjunction with other TA/Indicators. Use it with Elliot Wave analysis. USE IT. My experience is that all indicators/theories/strategies have strengths/weaknesses. If you are not aware of them (yet) - pay attention. Follow my research and I'll continue to try to share tidbits of advanced TA/Fibonacci with you. I created this to help my followers/friends learn one of the most critical price structure components of my own research. I see all price charts in the manner I've illustrated in this video. After more than 15 years of applied Fibonacci Price Theory/Structure - I can't help but NOT see price as "Fibonacci Fractals". Hope this helps.
NASDAQ:NVDAEducation
by BradMatheny
Here's Why the Tech-Led Selloff is Likely Over (for now)In this post, I will attempt to provide evidence to show why the tech-led selloff is likely to be over (for now). I will use the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and its inverse derivative, SQQQ, as my argument's basis. The inverse (short) ETF of the Nasdaq, SQQQ, has never closed a weekly candle above the Leading Span B of the Ichimoku Cloud (pink line in chart). Last week and the previous week, the weekly candle was very strongly resisted at this level. Now, the weekly and monthly momentum oscillators started to move in the opposite direction. This will not only make it much harder for SQQQ to pierce the line, but it could also result in SQQQ plummeting quickly, and therefore QQQ and the Nasdaq rebounding quickly. For comparison, many data points are covered in this chart, and there is a high statistical probability that the Nasdaq has bottomed. Not even during the peak fear of COVID-19, when the global economy shut down and governments feared millions of deaths, did SQQQ pierce the weekly Ichimoku Cloud. In December 2018 when the Fed was starting to rapidly roll off assets on its balance sheet and was raising interest rates, SQQQ still did not pierce the cloud. This fear is very similar to today's fear. Even further back, not even during the major flash crash in 2015 or on Black Monday in 2011 when the market crashed did SQQQ pierce the cloud. Today, hardly anyone remembers these episodes in stock market history. Similarly, in ten years or so, few people (except maybe those who sold all their positions at the market bottom) will remember what happened in May 2022. The NDTH is a chart of the percentage of Nasdaq 100 stocks that are above their 200-day moving average. It dropped to nearly 10 in May 2022, meaning almost 90% of Nasdaq 100 stocks were below their 200-day moving average. The last time this level was reached was in March 2020 right at the bottom of the COVID market crash. The NDTH has never dropped below 15 except during significant bottoms on the Nasdaq. There are many other examples in which the charts suggest, with high probability data, that we just experienced a significant bottom on the Nasdaq 100. (Eg. The Nasdaq 100 was supported on the monthly base line, the monthly candle is extremely bullish, the monthly EMA ribbon of the QQQ/SPY ratio chart strongly held the outperformance trend in place, inflation and interest rate charts are cooling. Although this may be a significant bottom, it does not mean a years-long bull span is ahead. Rather the charts suggest the panic selling has ended for at least the short to intermediate-term. To be fair, some charts suggest that the QQQ/SPY outperformance trend could be nearing the end of its decades-long run. (Credit to @Breakout_Charts for identifying this) If this occurs, then it could be the start of a new cycle, or even super cycle, whereby the Nasdaq underperforms for years. Finally, a point about market psychology. Bottoms occur when 'extreme fear' turns into just 'fear' (yes, there's actually an indicator that measures this). That indicator has moved significantly from 'extreme fear' towards 'fear'. With this said, there might be a lot of people who might comment on this post and say scary-sounding things about the state of the economy or stock market. If none of these fears existed among market participants, we would never even have gotten to this bottom. Never sell because of fear alone. Not financial advice. As always anything can happen. Just my thoughts. Leave a like if this was helpful and you'd like me to post more analyses. Please feel free to comment below if you have additional thoughts.
NASDAQ:SQQQEducation
by SpyMasterTrades
5
How to Calculate Probability in Price So many have asked for tutorials on some quant strategies. So this is my first tutorial for some basic quant trading strategies. This is not really a strategy in and of itself, this is to help you determine realistic price points as part of your overall strategy. You will need Excel to do this. If you like this kind of tutorial/find it helpful, let me know and I can continue posting similar stuff on how to apply some more basic quant strategies into your trading. Take care and trade safe!
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by Steversteves
7
Using different deflactors on IndexesHere I put up a series of deflactors on the Nasdaq 100 Total Return... I like to use Total Return Indexes becuase they acurately reflect the actual growth of the invested money, rather than simple price indexes... I picked the Nasdaq because as you may have noticed from previous posts the Nasdaq is the absolute winner in terms of performance in the last 15 years... also (unfortunately) I did not find a Total Return option for the S&P500 on Tradingview... actually it's quite bad out there, even spglobal.com doesn't seem to publish those anymore, much less deflated with CPI... Anyway, moving to the chart here we present a series of deflactors applied to the $NDX Total Return since INCEPTION: 1. Gold 2. CPI 3. CPI+DXY 4. M2 (Fred money stock) 5. REAL M2 (Fred money stock with CPI) I found the Real M2 the most interesting idea, for in a high monetary inflation environment, Real M2, purges the nominal M2 (total monetary inflation) of its price inflation "component", and comes to a somehwat more balanced deflaction than the original metric (435% performance using M2 Real, vs 275% using the Pure M2 deflactor)
NASDAQ:NTTREducation
by LotusTrading20
3
The cycles of the S&P500 | PART 1The cycles of the S&P500 / PART 1 This post introduces a study I'm conducting with the main objective of understanding the cycles and sub-cycles that the S&P500 Index has. Why am I studying the S&P500? Because it is the most relevant index in the world. There is not any other economy in the world that gets close to the returns of the US stock market as a whole, and also, we have a massive amount of data back from more than 100 years ago. So with all that said, let's start. The fundamental view I have regarding the market is that the price has moved between periods of fear and optimism through history, on a cycle that never stops. There is either Fear or Optimism, in other way impulses and corrections. On this chart, we can go through periods of optimism and fear caused by multiple factors, different governments, different geopolitical situations, massive crises, changes in interest rate; you name it, all of them are on this chart, the dot com bubble, the subprime crisis, the missile crisis with Cuba, wars, oil crisis, 1929, etc. The first conclusion I can make at first glance is that despite what was causing it, fear and optimism tend to have characteristics that we may be able to understand. This is a strong base for technical analysis as a discipline. Fear looks the same through several situations, and the same applies to optimism. That's why understanding the price is a powerful element to conclude where we are on the cycle. So what is the price telling us? In this post, we will not only go through the big cycles, but also we want to understand the smaller ones. Now I will put my main conclusions regarding the information I have found. THE BIG CYCLE: -------------------- Impulse 1: 1877 - 1881 = 4 Years / 152% from bottom to top. Correction 1: 1881 - 1897 = 16 Years / -41% from top to bottom. -------------------- Impulse 2: 1897 - 1902 = 5 Years / 144% Fromb bottom to top. Correction 2: 1902 - 1921 = 19 Years / -40% from top to bottom. -------------------- Impulse 3: 1921 - 1929 = 8 Years / 400% from bottom to top. Correction 3: 1929 - 1933 = 4 years / -84% from top to bottom. -------------------- Here we can observe a clear change in behavior regarding impulses. Until 1933 we observe short impulsive periods and long corrective periods. From 1933 until now, this trend reversed, we have long impulsive periods and short corrective periods compared to the past. -------------------- Impulse 4: 1933 - 1969 = 36 years / 2106% from bottom to top. Correction 4: 1969 - 1974 = 5 years / -48% from top to bottom. -------------------- Impulse 5: 1974 - 2000 = 26 years / 2500% from bottom to top. Correction 5: 2000 - 2009 = 9 years / -58% from top to bottom. -------------------- Impulse 6: 2009 - present = 13 years / 600% from bottom to top. In PART 2 of this series of posts , I will go through the sub-cycles we observe from 1933 until now. My main objective is to understand the similarities between these impulsive situations (impulse 4,5 and 6) Here I give you a snapshot of what will be coming: Impulse 4 with sub impulses and corrections: Impulse 5 with sub impulses and corrections: Impulse 6 with sub impulses and corrections: Here you can see the Days and % decline of each correction inside the impulses. Thanks for reading! I will be updating this soon.
SP:SPXEducation
by ThinkingAntsOk
9
On Balance Volume Use CasesTCON BNGO ONTX $TCON daily chart. January 16 2020 traded half it's float. March 2020 - Covid 3/16 to 8/27 Consolidation and huge block orders. Notice how regardless of the price, OBV is climbing higher and higher steps up, 1 step back 2 steps forward. Simple addition then subtraction rules apply and add and subtract green/red days volume for weighting. Then 8/17 TCON traded nearly twice it's float and laid dormant for close to a week. Despite many daily candles being red (faded) OBV jumped up from 12M to 30M overnight... $TCON then ran from $1.50s to $12.30 over the next few months. After look. $BNGO same story. After. $ONTX insane gap fill off a phase 3 failure. After. Overall, if obv doesn't look like this I rarely enter trades long term unless its an intraday position or possible swing. I'll have more examples coming. Good luck and I hope this was useful.
TEducation
by Todoubled23
MMT: The Beginning of the End for Fiat?Let's begin by introducing Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), which is a contrarian view to the orthodox macroeconomic theory's of the past, such as the Autrian School of Economic Theory. The theory suggests, inter alia, that soveriegn nations which maintain a monopoly on their currency, can essentially use that monopoly to fund government spending, without the need of raising taxes, of even having a productive, functional economy (initially). The main attraction here is that a government cannot be forced to default on debt, denominated in it's own currency, because it can simply print it's way out of debt. Alan Greenspan, former Fed Chair, famously said, "The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print money to do that. So there is zero probability of default." What we've seen in the past 12 months is a shining example of MMT, a well coordinated effort to monetize government spending across global markets, which has dwarfed any traditional effort to revive the actual labour market, or real economy (GDP). Heck, if you can simply print GDP, then why have taxes, or a labour market for that matter? MMT has it's shortfalls, and here's why we could looking at the beginning of the end for fiat currency. Although central banks across the globe are coordinating a fiat debasement scheme, which would see citizens in many countries become poorer as a result, there's essentially a proportionate loss in the standard of living benchmark across the fiat spectrum, because all of the major central banks are printing in sync. However, the fact that the bottom half (50%) of households, hold essentially no assets, means MMT is a direct tax on those households. The more money the government "prints," the less value the fiat currency has. Hence, stock prices, real estate, commodities, good and services, and everything you can trade in fiat, appears to be rising in value. But, it's not. It's rising when priced in fiat. The incredible demand for an alternative solution to this seeming wealth extraction mechanism called MMT, is the idea of a digitally finite crypto "currency" such as Bitcoin. Now, I'm not necessarily saying Bitcoin is defensible as an alternative to fiat. But, I'm saying it's a much better store of value. Having said that, crypto faces many hurdles over the years, including pressure from quantum computing - rendering traditional encryption technology moot, as well as power grid concerns pertaining to access, and the list goes on. The goal of MMT isn't to make everyone poor, and that has to be said. It's a powerful tool which aims to achieve maximum employment, while curbing inflation (fiat debasement), by eventually gathering more taxes from the wealthy, to offset rapidly rising prices. However, what we've seen over the past 12 months, is nothing short of extraordinary. The top 20 wealthiest people in the world saw their wealth increase by an average of over 30% from pre pandemic levels. Main Street on the other hand, has been encouraged to borrow more, and spend more, synthetically increasing the velocity of money, and hence the prices of essentially everything priced in fiat. The issue here is the velocity of money can't rise organically because the system is bloated with historic debt levels. If interest rates were to ever rise, for any reason, variable lines of credit, including mortgages, would become next to impossible to service. The Bank of Canada recently admitted to "printing," $3 Billion per week, which was a figure they released just 2 days after the Trudeau Administration released their spending budget for the next year, of you guess it, $3 Billion per week. Coincidence? No. This is perfectly in line with MMT, and the direction central banks all across the globe have signaled they're taking monetary policy. Now, I'm not opposed to the evolution of monetary policy, and I'm also not saying MMT is all bad. But, inherently, it doesn't address real economic productivity, and it aggressively extracts wealth from the bottom 50% of households (no assets). The shortfall in production, which is being replaced by printing GDP, is likely going to lead to a stagflationary environment in the near futures, and economic hardship for the most financially vulnerable. We will see higher taxes on the wealthy in an attempt to control inflation, but the Fed has admitted it can't see any inflation. They're still trying to get inflation to 2%, while the price of Lumber just rose 500% in a year. Don't take my word for it, in today's economic data release we saw personal income rise by a whopping 20% YoY. When you dig a bit deeper, you'll see that more than a third (33.8%) of total US household income, came directly from the US government. Now, if that isn't printing GDP, and going full-throttle on MMT, I don't know what is, my friends. Trade accordingly.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Hedge_Of_The_World
11
Popular Trading Indicators (Simply) ExplainedEvery full-time trader knows that rule number 1 in this business isn't to make money; rule number 1 is: don't lose money. Hence, any successful, long term trading strategy must inherently focus on managing risk. I know that lately the word risk carries next to no meaning, and that's because the more risk you take, the more you're rewarded, while those who manage their risk, and are potentilly risk averse in general, pay the price (in purchasing power terms). Having said that, in this context, trading with risk in mind is critical to following rule number 1, and it's essential to managing your risk exposure, and creating a sustainable, successful trading strategy. Moving averages (MA): Sifting through dozens of mathematical functions to help understand, and predict price action can be very challenging. But, having an understanding of why we use certain indicators is a great place to start. Let's begin by talking about MAs. The name is self-explanitory, of course, and it's not much more complicated than that. When we're looking at a MA, what we're seeing is an average of the price over a specified period of time. Now, you could say that using a 20 day simple MA is better than using a 21 day exponential MA (which places more emphasis on recent PA). But, this is a moot conversation, because we don't actually know what they mean until we explore what the MAs reveal for the timeframe being analyzed. By knowing and focusing on industry standard MAs, we can see what larger institutional desks might be seeing, and those MAs include the 20 day MA (20DMA), 50 day MA (50DMA), 100 day MA (100DMA), and the 200 day MA (200DMA). When we apply these MAs across multiple timeframes to derive a thesis on price action, it all starts to make sense, and you can see these industry benchmarks being respected on the longer time frames, clearly. However, when you look at price action post 2008, it's almost as if the intraday MAs are seemingly ignored completely. The HFT EFT flows are so heavy and they distort price so drastically, imo it's a losing battle trying to day trade based on intraday MAs. Relative Strength Index (RSI): The relative strength index (RSI) is a great momentum indicator used to gauge whether or not a financial instrument is overbought or oversold. It's analyzed as a line graph with a range of 0 to 1, the latter being the top of the range, with overbought conditions identified at a value of greater than 0.70, and oversold conditions being observed with a value of 0.30 or lower. These polar extremes often indicate that a reversal is about to occur. Fibonacci Retracement (Fib): The Fib is a very popular and is used to gauge the magnitude of a price retracement. For example, if a stock falls 25%, and then bounces hard on high demand, we could apply a Fib to benchmark the move against previous, similar moves. How the Fib works, is it uses a mathematical formula which adds the previous two number together to get the next. For example, starting at 0, the Fibonacci sequence is as follows: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, etc.. Within the Fib indicator, there are 5 key levels to watch after you've applied the 0 and 1 ranges to your price move, which includes the 0.236, 0.382, 0.5 (not officially included but useful), the 0.618, and finally the 0.786. Typically, I divide the asset price by the money supply (M2), to find tradable Fib levels (a lot of price distortion currently as I mentioned). Volume: When the price of an underlying security changes, what we're witnessing is the demand and supply (discovery) process. While this does tell us a lot, volume tells us the power of the move, and hence also the weakness of a move. For example, when we're seeing price rise as volume falls, the power of the move is diminishing, therefore it tells us that the move/trend could be nearing exhaustion. Placed together with other indicators that may also be flashing "red" could help us make better, and more informed decisions. In forex, however, volume points to the number of price changes which occured within the specified time interval. This is a bit different than stock or bond price volume, but essentially speaks to the depth of the market as well as the participation rate, just as it's peer does.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by Hedge_Of_The_World
4
10 steps to a VERY PROMISING NASDAQ 100 auto trading strategy Steps: 1) Fit a SuperTrend indicator (By KivancOzbilgic) on a daily chart 2) Fit another SuperTrend on a smaller timeframe ( when 1 and 2 are green then Bullish, 1 & 2 are red then bearish) 3) Use the TTM Squeeze indicator (By Greeny) to determine entry and exit points 4) Adjust the level of fluctuation you are willing to live with by setting a cap on the ATR level . Your strategy can be 10x more lucrative if you are willing to stomach a 56% drawdown on your account. Reducing the ATR threshold reduces that Max Drawdown but also the profit. It is all about balancing risk with profits. 5) Size the trade positions based on the remaining equity (if your strategy is successful, you'll benefit from compounding, when it is loosing money, you reduce your exposure so you don't go bust) 6) Trade with futures to benefit from leverage 7) Adjust your positions between day and night (the margin requirements are lower during RTH so you can increase your position) 8) Script the whole thing 9) Tweak the parameters of all the above until you get the desired outcome (or until you are sick and tired of it :) ) 10) Finally automate the trades by sending the alerts to a webhook URL and send them to your brokerage account using your Optional: Add safety gates such as Max Drawdown, Max Intraday Loss or Max number of loosing days.... I built a script to quickly play with all the variables as input and back test different scenarios with different chart timeframes and trading windows for the above strategy. The resulting strategy was back tested as far as I could (15 months with the data I have) and the numbers are, what can I say, IMPRESSIVE! The strategy turned 10K into 3,000K with 62% Profitable Trades and 1.8 Profit Factor while keeping the Max Drawdown below 35% over a 15 months period! Before you ask, no the script does not repaint and yes the result were from a standard candle chart. Finally, commissions are factored in. I started trading this automated strategy live this week on my margin account using MNQ1!. So far so good... I'll keep you posted... Disclaimer: Successful back testing is not a guarantee of future success. Trading involves risk and so does automation. The above is not an investment advice but merely an idea. Do your own due diligence and above all, trade safely and stay safe!
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Education
by adventurous51
9
Old Nuggets: Defined Risk Skew AccommodationSkew. It can be a pain in the butt if you want to trade both delta neutral and probability neutral. In QQQ, a delta neutral setup at the moment would be: selling a spread on the put side with the short put leg at the 275 (17 delta) and on the call side with the short call leg at the 344 (17 delta). However, this results in a short put strike 38 strikes away from current price and a short call strike 31 strikes away. It's delta neutral, but the probability of profit on the put side is 83% and on the call side 78%, so it isn't both delta neutral and probability neutral. Ugh. Fortunately, there is a solution to obtain both a delta neutral and a probability neutral setup, and it's with a variation on the iron condor: a "double double" -- double the contracts on the call side, with the put side being double the width of the call side spread. Because the risk associated with the put side spread -- that attributable to a five wide -- is greater than the risk associated with the call side (2 x 2 or the equivalent of a four wide), the maximum risk of the setup is that of a five wide -- the widest wing of the setup. In other words, doubling up the number of contracts on the call side doesn't increase buying power effect, because it's attributable to the widest wing (i.e., 5 > 2 x 2, so buying power effect is that attributable to the five wide). Here, you can't quite go exactly double due to strike availability at the moment on the put side (there's only five wides there), but you can go five wide on the put side, and 2 times a two wide on the call (the functional equivalent of a four wide) to get both a net delta and probability neutral setup: Put Side Short Put Leg: 17 delta Put Side Probability of Profit: 83% Call Side Short Call Leg: 2 x 12 delta Call Side Probability of Profit: 82% Resulting Setup Delta: .07 Naturally, skew isn't always to the put side; it's sometimes on the call side, where we'd do the opposite to accommodate skew: double up the number of contracts on the put side (but at half the spread width of the call).
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by NaughtyPines
6
Trading with Regression Trend, 21 day MA, RSI, and MACDI just wanted to share some tricks I learned using some basic TA tools in trading view. I marked up the NASDAQ with some examples. Please note that hind sight is 20/20 and using these tools in real time is much harder. First, I think the Regression Trend tool is underutilized by traders. It is a very powerful tool for automatically generating trading channels. IMO, I would wager that most automated trading algorithms use some form of this technique under the hood. Linear prediction is the easiest and most common form of regression analysis. What you are trying to do is fit linear a trend to the stocks movement. IT takes a little practice to know when a trend has switch from bull to bear and back again. I find that the 4h is a good time frame to eliminate a lot of the noise in prices. Also, heikin ashi instead of candle sticks can make this easier, but you can't see gap ups/downs, which can be important. One way to ID a trend change is to look for a new high to break out and clearly close above the current channel. Once you find the "pivot", then you start a new regression trend moving it along to keep up with the previous day's price. Some times it can be better to let it lag a day or two to better estimate the price's location in the trend, which may be important when a trend first starts as there is not much data for the prediction. What you are looking for is highs and lows that get close to or have a candle wick out of the trend. This give you a high probability that the price is about to reverse. That is kind of the whole thing. Just keep movin gthe trend along with each day looking for the price to touch the top or bottom of the trend. Obviously, more info is better. This is where the other tools come in. The 21 day SMA is a nice one (you have to configure the MA to days not the default and set it to 21). If the price touches this level, it will most often bounce off (up in a bull market and down in a bear). You should also look at the RSI for obvious overbought and oversold conditions. Again, the 4H seems to work best for swing trading. You need to use the regression trend with the RSI as the RSI reading can give you a "false" trigger in strong markets as it can stay oversold or overbought for several days. Last by not least is the MACD. It is a great momentum indicator that you can use to determine when the market is switching gears from buying to selling and vice versa. There are other more advanced tools like trend lines, fib levels, and Waves that are very helpful, but to be honest I think you can be very successful with just the basic techniques I described. Maybe another day I will go into more detail on those tools. Hope this helps and good luck.
TVC:NDQEducation
by Dr_Roboto
3
Microsoft ($MSFT) and Apple ($APPL) 💻 | New Highs for the Market🐮🖥️🐮 Apple and Microsoft are giants of tech and some of the largest holdings of the major indexes. If these companies run, not to mention the other tech giants like Facebook and Alphabet, then the markets will almost certainly run with them. Just look at the top 5 holdings of the S&P : Microsoft Corporation 5.68% Apple Inc. 5.60% Amazon.com, Inc. 4.26% Facebook, Inc. Class A2.16% Alphabet Inc. Class A1.68% Alphabet Inc. Class C1.68% Here are the top 5 holdings of the Nasdaq : Apple Inc. 11.83% Microsoft Corporation 11.41% Amazon.com, Inc. 10.25% Facebook, Inc. Class A 4.35% Alphabet Inc. Class A 3.88% Alphabet Inc. Class C 3.85% Here is the top DOW holdings With non-tech excluded (Microsoft is the 6th on the list, Apple is still #1): Apple Inc.9.14% Microsoft Corporation 5.07% It should be obvious to you now what we mean when we say " if these stocks run, then the market runs ." We mean, they are the biggest parts of the major indexes! This is good news for the bulls, because run is exactly what is about to happen based on historical trends. Some people seem to think that these tech stocks rushing past new all-time-highs perhaps signals the top of not only these companies but the market. In fact, we commonly hear this sort of sentiment every time it happens. Reality is just the opposite. The fact that these companies are breaking all-time-highs is actually bullish for them and the market as a whole. On top of that, the news is bullish for these companies as well (COVID aside). We have new iPhones, a slick new MacBook Pro, a new Surface Duo, and a declaration against Face ID for Microsoft. In short, there is nothing really substantial to bring these giants down aside from the broader market, but again, it is more likely they bring the market up. Don't take our word for it though, the historic patterns are clearly illustrated on our charts. On the charts, you can see yellow horizontal lines marking off each new high. You can clearly see that the longstanding pattern is that breaking a new high is bullish for both Apple and Microsoft (with this being true in spite of any bearish disbelief). In summary, breaking all-time-highs with conviction is bullish for the tech giants, which is bullish for the markets. So after that last break, our only questions are "when" and "how high?" Resources: www.etf.com + www.forbes.com + www.forbes.com + www.foxnews.com + mspoweruser.com ✨ Drop a comment asking for an update, we do NEW setups every day! ✨ Like, Comment & Follow to help the community grow 🎉🎉
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by AlphaBotSystem
Nasdaq COMP Fortnite Economy - What Boomers Don't UnderstandFirst, I just wanted to say the Baby Boomer generation endured many hardships and I am beyond grateful for their sacrifices, especially since I'm a child of a Vietnam Vet who battled PTSD until his last days. I'm dedicating this post to them. Even as a GEN-Xer, I too have a hard time understanding the millennial generation and their interests, but I think it's incredibly important that we understand them so we don't form a bias that is not aligned with reality or the trend. For the life of me, I could not understand why billions upon billions of dollars are spent on a digital goods, with the extremes (as I see) being completely optional Fortnite skins that simply change the way your character looks within a video game and provide absolutely no in-game advantage. I couldn't imagine a bigger waste of money at $20 a skin. If I could understand this, I might have a shot at understanding this generation's interest in intangible goods. I simply don't want to be left behind and I needed help breaking my strong bias. So I created a Fornite account a few years ago (Season 5). Today I own over 30 skins, and yes, I have a hard time admitting this, since skins are purely optional and not required to play the game. To an outsider, I'm part of the problem with the millennial generation, and I'm not even a millennial. So what did I learn that I did not understand before? Overtime, as I played Fortnite, I became incredibly immersed in the game play. In my opinion, they have the most advanced game engine (Unreal Engine 4) which means animations of the characters are extremely fluid and life like, and this is the keyword here, life like . As I continued to play, I noticed I became emotionally stimulated by events that happened in-game, and I made friends along the way. Basically, this became a way to experience a life that was not mine, not tied to anything based in reality, and it's merely a glimpse of what's to come in the future. In other words, an extremely convenient way for my mind to escape reality without having to dish out money for a vacation or medication/stimulants that many would take to get similar effects. Beyond that, my kids love the game and I bond with them every time we play, in-game, they see me as their peer and I also feel like their peer. When looking at it from this perspective, $20 to further express myself within a game and give me a more immersed experience is relatively cheap and convenient when compared to alternatives. Any time during the day when I just want to get away and not have a single thought about anything happening in my real life, this works perfectly. As a side note, as traders, we know how important it is to take a break from the market and completely focus on something else other than the market, allowing us to come back to the charts with an relaxed mind and perhaps a new perspective. I realize this is a rather odd post, especially for Tradingview, but I thought my experience may be helpful to some who struggle to see the value in intangible digital goods which are quickly becoming (or have already been) the main or growing source of revenue for many tech companies. Please like or subscribe if this has helped you in any way :) This will encourage me to take the time to create similar posts.
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by ttrending
4
Why Knowledgeable Traders Lose MoneyI've been trading for 20+ years and I believe I have almost seen it all. I've had big winning trades, and huge losses. Some of my biggest wins came when I was a beginner aka fomo trader, and my biggest losses came when I become more knowledgeable of the market. My most consistent trading came in my latter years when I gained experience and felt real pain, and I would like to share what I observed. I believe most retail traders naturally follow the same path if they stay solvent and interested enough to stick through it. 1. Beginner trader (1st year trading) : These traders generally tend to be profitable. You can call it beginners luck, but it's what gets most people to learn more about trading and put them into the 2nd class of traders (knowledgeable traders), which are the losers in the market. You can recognize a beginner trader as they believe in generalities. Those who believe "stonks only go up bro", yes they likely outperform you. It's only a matter of time before they don't, but this is where they get their confidence to invest more. 2. Knowledgeable trader : I believe most Tradingview users fall into this category. They likely had some great luck starting out by fomoing into a stock that was in an uptrend which made them want to learn more about trading, and with this newfound knowledge and tools like Tradingview they can't figure out why they are consistently losing money. They theorize in the back of their mind that the more they learned, the more they lost, and they are correct, but it's hard to accept this realization. The frustration they feel only leads to further losses which results from deleting stop losses because they're sick of losing. These are traders who upgraded their account to margin trading and they now have the awesome ability to short stocks. They imagine catching the top of a trending market and riding it all the way down. It's a fantasy I believe we all shared at one point. Instead of trading with the trend, they trade in the direction of their emotions, namely disbelief. They believe stocks are too oversold or overbought, and they look for setups to match their bias. In general, they are against the long term trend which makes their amazing setups likely to fail. When they're stuck in a trade, they resort to media and other traders to give them hope that the market will go their way. In general, the media is only adding to the traders disbelief and giving them false hope. Most traders fit into this category, and they are part of the reason for these extreme trends. They consistently get squeezed by going against the market, adding fuel to the trend. High frequency traders / institutions make a killing running these traders out of the market, while the beginner traders enjoy the gains from their fomo trades which are generally aligned with the trend of the market. 3. Experienced trader : These are traders who have been trading for 4 or more years and have stayed solvent enough to make it through phase #2. They have likely lost a lot of money trying to catch reversals and they has since realized most money is to be made in the middle by trading with the long term trend within the context of larger patterns. They also know how to take a stop loss and see it as an opportunity for a new trade. They realize they are wrong at least 40% of the time and they are at peace with it. They still get frustrated when a trade doesn't go their way, but they know this is a game of risk and reward, it's not about fortune telling. They know they will generally feel more pain if they don't take their stop, and while they may delete their stop in their weakest moments, the largest majority of the time they take the stop or exit with a loss before the loss becomes greater. The hardest part is knowing it's okay to be wrong, and it's okay be to be stopped out 4 or 5 times in a row and not be a failure. They see themselves as risk managers, not traders. They know there is no such thing as oversold or overbought, and have likely removed stoch and RSI indicators as they cause fomo to bet against a trend. They know nothing is oversold or overbought unless price reaches an area of extreme on a higher time frame chart or price is contained inside of a large well defined pattern that at least appears on an hourly chart that spans for days if not weeks. This analysis will likely not help anyone as emotions overpower logic 20:1. Most traders need to feel enough pain before they transition from phase 2 to phase 3, it's not something that can be taught. They need the financial and emotional scars. They need the natural feeling of pain in the moment they feel they might delete their stop loss or bet against a trend when the price is not at strong resistance / support in a longer term pattern. In general human behavior, most people have a plan but the plan is usually thrown out the window in the moment a decision has to be made. The purpose of this analysis is just to let you know that it's okay to be in the middle, and if you can at least have the control to trade with smaller amounts when you're in phase 2, you'll one day likely make it to phase 3. This analysis wont make anyone transition from a phase 2 to a phase 3 trader, I mainly wanted to make it clear that your emotions will likely continue to rule your trading, even in phase 3, the big difference is that you'll naturally feel pain before you make a mistake a phase 2 trader will make. Embrace your scars and the journey ahead.
CME_MINI:NQM2020Education
by ttrending
51
What Put:Call Ratio Tells Us About SPY QQQHere is a chart of the put to call ratio when compared with NASDAQ's ETF, QQQ. When the line is at the bottom of the PC chart, that means market participants are net short. When at the top, they are net long. I'm sure we've all heard the saying that market makers usually take the other side of the trade. This chart shows that this is a true. When stocks are going up, the majority of retail traders are shorting the market. When the market goes down, the majority of retail traders are longing the market. Right now we're in an extreme situation where the majority of retail traders are shorting the market and institutions are doing what they do best, hitting their stop losses and squeezing them out, essentially taking the free money on the table. When this is no longer profitable, the trend usually changes with a few exceptions (see March 2020). To look at it another way, institutions make money on retail trader's emotions which is specifically disbelief. They say 90% of retail traders lose money trading the stock market. I believe this chart is evidence of that.
USI:PCEducation
by ttrending
21