Shorters Dream - A Projection of 1st Qtr 2001 QQQThe price action we've seen since October looks a lot like the tech bubble of Y2K. The combination of mean aversion and valuation levels like this have only occurred two times in the past(1929,2000). Corporate buy backs and excess leverage(everywhere) where also traits of these historical crashes.
Using the first tech bubble as a model, I've projected what might happen. Truly a shorters dream. This applies to both QQQ and SPY as they are rather synced right now and where one goes the other will follow quickly. IF .....it plays out in the same fashion then we will end the downhill run around April 4th or 5th(QQQ) at 117 and around March 25th for SPY at 215. Both, will ready for another furious bear rally at those points in time.
Sort of scary...
Hey, its an idea. We'll see.
QQQ
Is bond market signaling something like 1937 and 2007?As all can see that 10 yr yield broke out of the long term trend line, and it has completed the double top. My hunch is it will come back to retest the trendline around 2%. That is the flight to safety. We can see that in 2008 what happened when 10 yr yield sharply dropped, equities dropped more than 30% in a short period of time.
All in all, short bond is a crowded trade, it may trigger a bond squeeze and equities bloodbath in the coming months. Be prepared and don't be blind sighted by the short term ramp by MM. Because they know it is coming so they need to make it look like we are going way higher, thats the only way they can dump overhead inventory.
For the reference, see the comparison that I did in 1937. Link is below.
Nasdaq IXIC - Finding the 9 year cycleMarkets are more predictable than we have been led to believe. Here we are going to examine the 9 year cycles found in the Nasdaq composite.
This is a follow-up idea from my previous idea which was Lesson one in Market Cycles in the DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE. Please follow that link for a more detailed explanation on this.
In the Nasdaq we can see an (approx) 9 year half cycle which is very consistent. It actually is closer to approx 9 year 3 months. But you should know that the time between each line is EXACTLY the same. In the method I use, I use the fib time zone tool to create lines which all have the EXACT amount of time between each line.
As I said in my previous idea, there are multiple cycles on different time frames and different frequencies all occurring simultaneously. If we only focus on one particular cycle, we will not have enough information to know how to trade. But when we calculate the net effect of several cycles, we will have a much better idea and information for FUTURE predictions. Please read my previous idea for more info on that.
In addition to the 17 year Secular bull and Secular bear markets, we can see this 9 year (approx) cycle which also is present in DJIA.
The green line represents the LOW Point or trough of the cycle and the RED line represents the PEAK of the cycle. The GREEN ZONE starts at the GREEN LINE and goes to the RED LINE. The RED ZONE starts and the RED LINE and goes to the GREEN LINE. Remember that a GREEN ZONE will have stronger GROWTH - GREEN = GROWTH and RED = REST. But the 9 year cycle and 17 cycles are not the only cycles occurring. There are others. So the individual cycle will not explain all of the movements int he chart.
Can you see how near the end of the GREEN ZONE (before the red line) the growth gets stronger? And near the end of the RED ZONE, it gets weaker. Imagine this a cycle of fluctuating energy -- the green is a positive energy and the red is a negative energy. The energy is highest as we reach the end of the GREEN ZONE, and energy is lowest when we reach the end of the RED ZONE.
We will also explore other cycles and other charts soon. I will soon make a chart where I will show both the 17 year cycle and 9 year cycle on the SAME CHART. There you will see how when both cycles are GREEN the growth gets much stronger. Please STAY TUNED for more IDEAS.
I also will be analyzing BITCOIN using the same method. You may save my profile so you can see more ideas as I post them.
Please feel free to give your comments and click like if you like the idea.
How To: Profit with CCI Colored Candles / Bars w/ Histogram You have SPY Trending down today CCI and Candles are red pink and purple buy the 1st or 2nd pullback where CCI goes near ZERO line on CCI
I use 5min charts minium Indicator link:
Color of your candles matches your CCI with Histogram indicator and trend line . CCI EMA or SMA based option, traditional or modern formula calculation options ect. Can change Length, source, Trigger Lines, colors of candles and histogram and more
The CCI compares the current price to an average price over a period of time. The indicator fluctuates above or below zero, moving into positive or negative territory. While most values, approximately 75%, will fall between -100 and +100, about 25% of the values will fall outside this range, indicating a lot of weakness or strength in the price movement.
A basic CCI strategy is used to track the CCI for movement above +100, which generates buy signals, and movements below -100, which generates sell or short trade signals. Investors may only wish to take the buy signals, exit when the sell signals occur, and then re-invest when the buy signal occurs again.
The CCI compares the current price to an average price over a period of time. The indicator fluctuates above or below zero, moving into positive or negative territory. While most values, approximately 75%, will fall between -100 and +100, about 25% of the values will fall outside this range, indicating a lot of weakness or strength in the price movement.
When the CCI is above +100, this means the price is well above the average price as measured by the indicator. When the indicator is below -100, the price is well below the average price.
1 CCI strategy is used to track the CCI for movement above +100, which generates buy signals, and movements below -100, which generates sell or short trade signals. Investors may only wish to take the buy signals, exit when the sell signals occur, and then re-invest when the buy signal occurs again.
Long-term chart is used to establish the dominant trend, short-term chart establishing pullbacks and entry points into that trend. A multiple timeframe strategy is commonly used by more active traders and can even be used for day trading, as the "long term" and "short term" is relative to how long a trader wants their positions to last.
When the CCI moves above +100 on your longer-term chart, this indicates an upward trend, and you only watch for buy signals on the shorter-term chart. The trend is considered up until the longer-term CCI dips below -100.
When using a daily chart as the shorter timeframe, traders often buy when the CCI dips below -100 and then rallies back above -100. It would then be prudent to exit the trade once the CCI moves above +100 and then drops back below +100. Alternatively, if the trend on the longer-term CCI turns down, that indicates a sell signal to exit all long positions.
When the CCI is below -100 on the longer-term chart, only take short sale signals on the shorter-term chart. The downtrend is in effect until the longer-term CCI rallies above +100. The chart indicates that you should take a short trade when the CCI rallies above +100 and then drops back below +100 on the shorter-term chart. Traders would then exit the short trade once the CCI moves below -100 and then rallies back above -100. Alternatively, if the trend on the longer-term CCI turns up, exit all short positions.
Make the strategy more stringent by only taking long positions on the shorter time frame when the longer-term CCI is above +100. This will reduce the number of signals, but will ensure the overall trend is very strong.
Entry and exit rules on the shorter timeframe can also be adjusted. if the longer-term trend is up, you may allow the CCI on the shorter-term chart to dip below -100 and then rally back above zero (instead of -100) before buying. This will likely result in a paying a higher price, but offers more assurance that th
$QQQ Nasdaq Composite with Support Levels from $VXN spikesEach time there is a panic selloff and recovery, the buyers who stepped up to the plate and accumulated shares at a discount show that they are in control of the market.
What happens when VIX or VXN spikes when the market falls? Well, sellers of options demand higher prices to compensate for higher risk or higher costs of taking a trade. Also, buyers of options pay UP and take offers for options which gives them protection from declines in stock prices (or a big rise in stock prices). 90% of the time VIX rises when the market declines, which makes people think VIX or VXN only rises when stocks fall. But that isn't the case.
The nervous sellers sold into the stronger hands of the buyers. The sellers now sit comfortably in cash and HOPE to buy back their shares at the discounted prices that they sold them "in a panic". But, as you see, the market doesn't accommodate those nervous sellers very often.
SO...
What happens is the market finds support just above or just at the levels where sellers jumped-ship.
Take a look.
See the pattern?
Good.
Now - don't tell anyone about it.
Tim
10:31PM July 17, 2017