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Fundamental-analysis

GET READY: A big fortnight ahead!This is an educational post - compliant with the house rules on text-based contributions - showing some of the tension between monetary policy taken by the FED and real world fiscal issues at deeper levels. Click and drag chart if all text does not show. Thanks. The tension has caused whipsaws in the US Dollar, and price of Gold. The IMF has declared a global recession and several countries have gone into recession. Reputable opinion out there is that the world is heading for an economic depression based on a 50 to 75 year cycle, which is coinciding with a 10 year recessionary cycle. I have no doubt that central banks around the world will have limited success in propping up economies. I'm more concerned for the longer term view. Last week extreme volatility took a break compared to the previous week. The next 2 weeks could see a return of volatility to indices and forex markets. Stay safe, fellow traders.
FOREXCOM:US30Education
by Captain_Walker
3
Fundamental Case Study -Interest rate cut, boost of inflation.Fundamentals can be hard to trade and are almost always of no logical predictable direction. So how can we trade fundamental news and events? This question can be answered in many ways. However, we want to put an accent now on high impact fundamental events that are impacting an economy in the longer term, and not daily data releases/news which create almost none volatility for our interest. Each and every year there are few such events, some creating huge movements in one day/on the opening, others creating strong bullish/bearish trends in the longer term. These events can be categorized in wars, attacks, pandemics, bankruptcy, federal banks drastic decisions, and more. In this case study, we will analyze the FED's data releases due to the latest COVID-19 threats. On Tuesday, 03 March 2020 The FOMC cut the federal funds rate by 0.50% to a target range of 1.00% to 1.25% at an unscheduled emergency meeting. This measure was taken due to the pandemic disturbance of the markets: "The fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong. However, the coronavirus poses evolving risks to economic activity. In light of these risks and in support of achieving its maximum employment and price stability goals, the Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point, to 1 to 1‑1/4 percent. The Committee is closely monitoring developments and their implications for the economic outlook and will use its tools and act as appropriate to support the economy ..." - Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement, 5:00 PM - Mar 3, 2020 What does this mean? And how can traders benefit from this fundamental impact factor? The Federal Funds rate is the Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight, and is scheduled 8 times per year. Usually cutting or increasing the interest rate happens over a longer period of time, by 25 basis points at once. These short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation - traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future. By adjusting the right interest rates, with the purpose of economic growth, the FED keeps it's inflation targets through short periods of time. Because the FOMC cut the federal funds rate, at an unscheduled emergency meeting by 50 basis points, it surprised the market and it reacted appropriately. This means drastically devaluation of the US Dollar on the short term. And Market Makers acted accordingly, selling the US Dollar. We can see on the charts a few trades we took after the data releases. In this case study, you can also see how it impacts the overall economy, creating movements on more instrument categories. GOLD, Currencies, yields, indices. If you want to further explore this case study, or learn more about fundamentals, don't hesitate to follow us on our free education blog on Instagram and shoot as a dm for further questions.
TVC:DXYEducation
by TradingExpertGroup
General Markets AnalysisBITFINEX:BTCUSD FX:EURUSD NASDAQ:FB CBOT:ZT1! AMEX:SPY COMEX:GC1! Bitcoin, EURUSD, Facebook, T-Bonds, SPY, Gold, etc...it is not important to make profit on a specific asset. What is important is to optimize operations regardless of the assets, clearly selected and constantly monitored. Potentially earning $10,000 on cryptocurrency or forex, while maintaining a high risk profile rather than $5,000 with a low risk profile, won't get you very far and especially it's not the setting of the big traders. If you intend otherwise to allocate capital to a diversified portfolio of stocks, commodities, cryptocurrencies, bonds, indices, investing in the long term then we are talking about other things.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALEducation
by SwissTradingSchool
The Secrets to Forex & the Delusion Game (pt.2)Be sure to read my prior article first. Chapter 1: Persistence is Another Word for Probability Okay, so we're finally back in action. Last time I edged you pretty far but now we can finally get some release. We determined that managing uncertainty (risk management) is the key to 'winning at losing' and paradoxically becoming a profitable trader of derivatives. I explained that your trading system, your directional biases don't matter. It's garbage anyway. All that matters is the biases and systems of the institutions, commercials, sophisticated investors, etc. They all have their own indicators and forecasting methods for directional picks, and they all compete. You can't copy those systems because they are either company property (expensive R&D afterall), and even if you did, you would still be unprofitable, they barely win 60% of the time. But what if we copy their risk management strategies? And what if many of them were similar? And fairly transparent? Why would risk management be similar (and transparent) but speculation strategies vary? Because they manage millions and sometimes billions of dollars (in winning and losing market conditions). Many of them have been doing this for decades, some over a century. Some of them, before fiat money was even a thing in your country. Their credibility comes from safety and persistence. That's why so many commercials have generic 'strong' or 'surviving' implied names that are often related to stones, ships, or geographic (sounding) landmarks. "We will weather the storm and protect your wealth." At least that is the image they want to sell to prospective investors. No Lucky 777 Capital or eBet69 Capital. In addition, they earn from account management itself, primarily from fees. It is inherently intuitive that they would be the experts of managing and protecting your wealth. Their first priority and specialization, is the risk management of capital, a preservation principle. Not highly speculative market returns. Chapter 2: The Emergence of Estimation Now, before I go into detail about the popular risk management methods they use, first we need to broach some psychology and philosophy here. This will help you understand why risk management tends to be more similar at the top, when 'big money' is involved. And why generic advice like 'holding through downturns' or 'buying low' tends to come from the wealthiest and most successful investors. Most of our society attempts to manage uncertainy with speculation. At a macro level, the current paradigm is to make ESTIMATES of SPECULATION. You gather a bunch of 'speculations' (predictions/bets, IE on price level, etc) from credible sources, and find a way to estimate the best value or central tendency. The major systems (governments, markets, organizations, etc) in our society operate on estimation. They develop a likely zone or range of possible outcomes. Now the way this information is presented (and they way experts/speculate) is under constant debate at the pinnacle of our most influential companies, sports teams, armed forces, intelligence agencies, universities, etc. However, estimation overall remains a popular and effective tool, primarily in number heavy domains like markets or weather forcasting (the only field where moon cycles can yield accurate predictions). This is the line of thinking that gives us fair value models (or the center of gravity notion). Many traders like to focus on PA (price action) analysis, claiming incorrectly that this is a pure and indicator-free approach to studying the market. The 'candle' itself is a form of fair value presentation, delivered via the OHLC indicator many retail traders use. The candle is used as a form of estimation found commonly in scientific articles as well (though with additional features). It's just another form of statistical analysis derived from an estimation formula. 1. Determining the 'fair value' price point or the center of price gravity is the most important technical effort you can undertake for your trading strategy. 2. Determining extremes or ranges against that 'fair value' price point is the secondary technical effort that will help you build proper limits to risk. Speculation has the property of delusion, it is characteristically delusional, and that is precisely why it is persistent and predictable. Guessing about things you can't yet experience goes against scientific paradigms. You can't observe the future, you can't test it, you can't repeat it, etc. Only with induction, a sort of coherent or emerging 'catalogue of historical delusion', can we come to terms with speculation as socially and sometimes scientifically (in number heavy environments), acceptable behavior. --- Not to wax too philosophical, but the Problem of Grue highlights the weakness of induction as a knowledge tool. Fact, Fiction, and Forecast is a legendary epistemology book and I strongly recommend it as it serves as a nice auxiliary text for Boyd's word-shy OODA loop concepts. What's important to understand here is that while speculation is essentially irrational, it is still the standard behavior in markets; and therefore, we have to accept irrationality as the status quo. That's the motivation, the prioritization for risk management; to help avoid or deal with all that disorder and confusion and inaccuracy that occurs. It's a game to navigate delusion. And a final heads up for the big thinkers out there, To greatly summarize Boyd: he revealed that the *speed* at which you can calculate 'based on observation' can result in a perfect edge in any form of competition. In other words, you gotta be able to find the center of price gravity and determine the extremes of that price point as quickly as possible, or at least faster than others. This is why technicals, ie statistics, are necessary in risk management (but not for picking directions). You can't calculate risk once a year, you can't calculate it in your head (for markets). It needs to be done in near realtime. Chapter 3: Recommended Models I will cover these in far greater detail in the next article, but here is the list of key models (and technicals within) I recommend to meet your trading objectives (long-term profitability) as a spoiler. A lot of these will look familiar. Most of you have probably used a few (and lost money). That will change when I show you how to use them correctly. Center of price gravity (how to find it): Bollinger Bands Seasonality Models Major Moving Averages Point of Control VWAPs Linear Regressions Channel Extremes (how to reduce risk and increase profitability): Bollinger Bands (standard deviation) ATR Bands Channel VWAPs VaR OI Historical Models Currency Options Traditional Arbitrage Session Psychology Carry Hedge There is one final key to all of this, which involves the clever application of these models. To demonstrate why some models work better in different situations/timeframes/sessions, I have to jump into some of Bohm's work. It all has to do with disorder, which isn't 'orderly enough' to be consistently disorderly. That is, unless you know all the secrets. See you next time.
Education
by CountofCoins
3
FACEBOOK Intrinsic Value ExampleHere I will show you a method to calculate the intrinsic value of a stock. It is based in the idea of how much money can you squeeze out of a company in the future and bringing that amount to present value. The first step is to find a company which is stable, that has a somewhat linear stable growth rate. It is preferred that the debt to equity to be less than 0.5 and current ratio to be more than 1.5. NASDAQ:FB 2 Minutes Video Tutorial: easyupload. io/to2cyd Excel File: easyupload. io/uby6z4
FEducation
by gilxhontoci97
Websites That Should be on Every Online Trader's FavoritesAll comments and likes are very appreciated. _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Making a good investment and trading choices requires extensive market research and investment education. If you use or are interested in using an online trading service to start playing the market, it is imperative to take a substantial amount of time keeping abreast of market trends and stock exchange news. Forex Volatility and Tools: www.mataf.net oilprice.com www.livecharts.co.uk completecurrencytrader.com Macroeconomic Data: www.forexfactory.com www.fxstreet.com www.forexpeacearmy.com www.dailyfx.com www.tradingeconomics.com www.marketpulse.com www.forexcrunch.com www.forexminute.com www.actionforex.com www.forexnews.com Financial News Websites: www.wsj.com uk.reuters.com www.bloomberg.com www.cnbc.com www.bbc.co.uk www.ft.com www.dukascopy.com news.sky.com Central Bank Websites: www.ecb.europa.eu www.federalreserve.gov www.bankofengland.co.uk www.boj.or.jp www.rba.gov.au www.rbnz.govt.nz www.snb.ch Financial Twitter Feeds: twitter.com twitter.com twitter.com twitter.com twitter.com twitter.com twitter.com twitter.com twitter.com twitter.com twitter.com twitter.com twitter.com twitter.com twitter.com _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ All comments and likes are very appreciated. Best Regards, I0_USD_of_Warren_Buffett
Education
by NextOrderAlpha
1
Reading NEWS Daily would make you a BETTER Trader Overall!Well, there are three types of traders we can come across and all of them believe their method of trading yields them profits, be it using only indicators and price action (Technical analyst) or reacting to news whilst trading (fundamental analyst) or trading according to market sentiment (sentimental Analyst)! In most circumstances we can only see that some traders lets take for instance technical analysis traders, they only perform their trades based on analysis of the charts by using patterns and indicators!. While there may be few traders who combine Both fundamental and technical analysis to execute their trades, most of them do NOT prefer to do this method particularly as they believe "its take a lot of effort to combine these two techniques which would eventually result in executing less trades when compared to using single method!" Whereas the above statement holds true, it can also be fairly said that the combination of the three techniques (technical, fundamental and sentimental analysis) gives a trader more confidence and trust in his/her analysis!. Take for example myself, i used to execute around 2 trades daily when i was basing my analysis solely on technical perspective. These days i only execute around 5 trades a MONTH due to i combine all these 3 techniques which gives me more confidence and trust in executing my trades! I also noticed that since my trades are high probability setups, my win rate is way better when i was using on technical analysis alone. These days i hardly do DAY trading as i spend most of the time reading news and chart analysis to find high probability trades on higher time frames (DAILY, WEEKLY & RARELY 4HR). What i have come to realize in all these years is that SWING trading gives me more accurate results and high win percentage. I do NOT expect to double my account in a month's time, but i trade using risk management and just execute enough trades to make what i can without being stress and blowing up my account! So my advice to all you guys would be to try to combine both fundamental and technical analysis to execute your trades. Here is a big TIP for those that only use technical analysis to execute their trades: TRY TO SPEND 1-2 HOURS A DAY READING NEWS ON APPS SUCH AS INVESTING.COM (BOTH ANALYSIS AND NEWS SECTION), MYFXBOOK NEWS SECTION AND TRADER SENTIMENT SECTION, HAVE A LOOK AT SOMEONES ELSE IDEAS ON TRADINGVIEW.COM If you keep this a habit of reading news and analysis together whilst performing your own too, you will develop a GUT feeling technique that is unique and which will likely tell you where the market is headed prior to you even performing your technical analysis! Its a very special technique but it takes time and habit to develop. Here we see the main of GOLD (XAUUSD) pair i has a gut feeling would reverse and dip slightly because markets were in RISK ON mood. Now this pair is on its way to form HEAD AND SHOULDERS PAttern which is on the verge of breaking the neckline. Now the pattern is not yet complete because the technically the neckline has not broken, but i have a GUT feeling that it would break soon enough and target the ascending trendline beneath at 1260.000 level. its a very special technique and i hope some of you could combine them and use it to your greater advantage! Cheers
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by FX618Analysis
Understand the hype around Binance Chain & Dex and its effectsThis is my first technical and fundamental analysis of Binance Coin (BNB). I also take the opportunity here to draw a parallel with another altcoin, TOMOCHAIN, not yet available directly on Trading View. I have shown by vertical lines each Burn of BNB that occur every quarter since 10-18-2017, 6 Burns now reducing the total supply of BNB tokens by 5.41%. This makes it possible to note graphically that there has been no influence on the rise of the course so far! Binance in its whitepaper promises the destruction of half of the BNB futures. The amount of BNB to "burn" is based on the number of transactions made on the trading platform in the last 3 months. Thus, after each quarter, Binance burns BNBs according to the overall volume of user transactions. What is, on the other hand, very significant, and this contrary to most other cryptocurrencies, is that the price of the BNB has dissociated itself from the Bitcoin price (master-standard of cryptos) as from 03-20-2018, on the rise! For almost a year now, although BNB's price remains closely correlated with Bitcoin's share price in terms of variations, it still retains the difference in value recorded by the sudden rise from 20 to 22 March 2018. This "hype" corresponds to the first announcement by Binance of the creation of its own blockchain for BNB, so named BinanceChain, and therefore no longer a "simple" ERC20 token of the blockchain Ethereum! But also already, the rumor spoke of a new exchange platform for Binance, visually similar, but decentralized! What is called a Dex and which allows customers to own their personal private keys, a safe asset. So, there was already talk of a Binance Dex, adding FOMO to this hype. However, at the end of January 2019, Binance's second more precise announcement about BinanceChain and BinanceDex, resulting in a new hype / pump that I have framed on my chart! Good news for those who have already invested on BNB (or on TOMO as I will explain), they take advantage of this announcement effect. BUT for those who would be tempted to invest on BNB (and TOMO), I don't necessarily advise you in the immediate future! On the one hand, I highlight in red the presence of a possible horizontal resistance that has just been reached, constituted by the previous big support broken November 13, 2018! In addition, I also highlight the RSI 14 oversold (> 70) in the last 10 days, which refers to the hype of the month of December 2017... As much as there can be beautiful green candles to enjoy, so keep in mind the catastrophic result as of mid-January 2018! Periods of pure speculation are dangerous for your wallet.
BINANCE:BNBUSDEducation
by MaxHodler
BITMAIN: Antminer S-series Return on Investment (Bitcoin)Chart shows the return on investment of Antminer S-series miners: S1 (yellow): approx released July 2013, power consumption 2 kW/TH/s S3 (purple): approx released June 2014, power consumption 0.71 kW/TH/s S5 (orange): approx released December 2014, power consumption 0.51 kW/TH/s S7 (green): approx released Aug 2015, power consumption 25 kW/TH/s S9 (blue): approx released July 2016, power consumption 0.1 kW/TH/s Red curve is network hash rate (proportional to difficulty). Chart of mining efficiency (TH/s/kW): drive.google.com (blue is actual trend, red is projected continuation of pre-S9 trend) Bitmain has not publicly released any significant efficiency upgrades since July 2016. Innovation at the mining sector's biggest player seems to have stalled. If the exponential trend had continued we should have reached >40 TH/s/kW by Jan 2018, instead we are at 2016 levels. This is either because Bitmain cannot make more efficient ASICS or because they are keeping secret any innovations they have made. Looking at the return on investment (ROI) chart. The white horizontal line is the breakeven line. Anything above is profit. The vertical lines are release dates of the various S-model miners. We see that a new miner is released to the public just when the previous model becomes obsolete. Normally there is a lead time before delivery of several months. Bitmain have not made any announcements regarding an S11. Despite all of this the hash rate is increasing unabated. Have Bitmain been secretly mining with new hardware or have they simply been bringing more S9s online? If they have an S11 why aren't they releasing it? Further reading Bitmain now mines 42 % of the entire network bitcoinist.com June 8 interview with the Bitmain CEO Jihan Wu fortune.com This is where I explain how to calculate the conversion factor medium.com
BCHAIN:MIREVEducation
by RealMcafee
17