CAD/JPY Short - 01 June 2021 | Hybrid Move Result: +3.00%Hey all,
Another quick breakdown of a Hybrid setup taken this month..
The trade initiated from a Sr. Daily Zone which was created all the way back in January 2018, where price showed a beautiful trendline break and a huge crash in price. Overall the monthly time-frame was sitting at major value as well together with the weekly chart being in need of a reversal after the strong 2020 and 2021 volatility in the markets.
The 4hour started to top out here after the daily showed a clearly over-extended run. When the double top formed at the 4hour chart, price confirmed the bearish bias with a clean 4hour star formation to the downside and a clean move later on. The orange candles at my chart are from our unique entry indicator developed to be optimal for our supply and demand zones.
If you have any questions, feel free to comment below!
Kind regards,
Max Nieveld
Structure
NZD/CHF Long - 21 May 2021 | Hybrid Move Result: -1.00%Hey All,
The trade initiated from a Daily Counterzone stacked with a clean area of weekly demand as well perfect in my opinion with the main idea to break the daily trend and
continue the higher-timeframe bias to the upside. Overall the setup was pretty complex due to the Counterzone analysis, yet clear enough to find and edge.
The 4hour strategy was executed after price formed a clean star formation and exploded to the upside after some more deceleration. The 4hour started to create a small double bottom formation
with our automatic Hybrid Strategy entry when the 4hour star closed. At the daily time-frame prices reached the downward sloping trendline formation which was never broken to the upside, instead
price moved towards the downside creating a deeper daily lower low and continue the trend.
Good trade, good edge.
How to read a Chart - Part IV: Perspectives on PoIPoints of Interest
Introduction
One of the most common mistakes in trading ist the trading somewhat somewhere in the nowhere, which in general results in a bad trade location, wide stops, being stopped out very often or being right while being wrong.
Thus, in trading it is paramount to wait patiently for your setup to appear, and not every setup is of the same quality. Even though high quality setups are not appearing on a 1-minute-, 5-minute- or 60-minute-basis, waiting will actually not only save you money, but also result in higher profits, higher trading confidence and less stressful decision-making. Even if you’ve already heard of the basic principles, they are just right.
A. Highs and lows
As I’ve pointed out in my previous article “How to Read a Chart Pt. III”, the highs and lows on a daily chart are building the overall structure. Don’t get me wrong: the weekly has some nice perspectives too, but you should watch it if you are an investor going in for 10+ years. The highs and lows on a weekly chart still do have importance on lower time frames, but you shouldn’t make a decision on trading entries for a plus 5 years investment opportunity on a 1-minute- or even a 1-second chart. Why are highs and lows important? They are used as reference for past and thus future resistance. Does this always apply? No for sure, that's why structure is important. So before we’re diving deeper into this subject, let's have a quick comparison of weekly and daily highs and lows.
I’ve marked the high and low of the weekly chart in thick red, just to show that everything you might see on a weekly basis you're also able to see on a daily basis. In orange is the range of the past week and in blue the range of the current week.
So in general: if we’re trading above the previous week’s range, we are in general long biased, if we’re trading below the previous week’s range, we are short biased. Does this always apply? No! But when does this apply? When the big fishes, the “whales” are showing interest in selling or buying at those specific points. Something we can derive from the chart above is the following: the previous week’s low got rejected, but the value is shifting down; this means, that if we’re trading above the current week’s high there are two scenarios: either we’re going up fast, breaking the previous weeks high or we are being rejected and shifting down again - at least to the bottom of the range. If we're going below the low, it might go quick, fast and harsh.
B. High and low of the previous day
Applying this principle from chapter A to intra-day trading, it goes alike: in general, if we are trading above the previous day’s high, at large we are long and if we are trading below the low of the previous day, we are short. Let’s unfold this beauty of perspectivity:
In the picture above I’ve used a random high/low indicator - displaying the highs and lows of the previous day's session - as there are hundreds and hundreds to be found on @TradingView and the reason why is quite obviuos and well justified. I’ve also added “setups” to show you what to expect if you would have traded blindly every single break above the high or below the low. Even if you would have no specific view on the market, no bias or any idea of the markets direction you still would have made 4X (40 times your risk ! ) at win ratio of 56% - which most people would say is "not good".
C. Ranges
So what are the zones between a day's high and low? It's nothing else than the day's range. You may find ranges on bigger and smaller scales, on a 1 minute to 1 year time frame. What are these ranges? They are zones of congestion, zones of consolidation and zones of value, but mainly they are battlefields.
Let's have a look on a chart:
I've just plotted some of these zones to point out one thing: if you're trading within the zone, you're lost and you will most likely lose money even if you're right about the direction.
You need an edge in trading, and the easiest thing is to trade from one edge to the other edge until a breakout has been confirmed.
D. Big Bars / Big Fat Candles
Don't mistake me: this is not about day drinking, romantic candle light dinner or something like this; it is about big fat candles on a chart and what happened there and what is likely to happen. Some should note that a range on a lower time frame is nothing else than inside bars on a higher time frame. Usually a big fat candle appears if stops have been triggered and thus the sentiment has shifted. So, somewhere within this big fat candle there is support or resistance and it depends on volume and sentiment if we're about to move further in this direction or not, but mostly it is indicating momentum. If you want to trade pullbacks, you need to figure out where the breakout has happened; usually it has happened before the top or bottom of the corresponding range. Additionally, if a big fat candle got retraced to 100 percent, something is fishy, whilst a strong breakout should indicate only a partial retracement if the traders are committed to push prices further in their direction.
E. Value areas and Points of No Interest
As I'm using the free version of @TradingView , I would've attached an image from my order flow software, because there is no decent free volume profile indicator displaying value areas (if I'm wrong, post a link in the comments), but it seems that the image upload didn't work, but anyway. The point I'm trying to make ist this: value areas are showing zones where price is seen as fair and thus the most volume has been traded. If you're using a market profile (tpo or monkey bars), it is showing where price has been traded most of the time. Outside of this range, price is considered unfair, and this is - exactly as ranges overall - where your edge is.
Zooming out and seeing the bigger picture is extremely helpful to not get caught in war zones of higher time frames and big players.
On this chart above I'm using the 200 period volume profile of @LuxAlgo ,visually a beautiful piece of art. Furthermore, it is displaying somewhat similar to a value area and - even more interesting - the valleys in the profile, also called low volume nodes. To use these valleys as reference, you should not make the mistake and look where price has not been traded at all, but where supply and demand have diminished; this is blatantly simple: if there haven't been buyers or sellers at all, price will move on; so you need at least a certain threshold of trading activity.
In grey I've plotted the borders of the range. As you can see, as soon as the price has reached these areas, a reaction has happened. On the upside, it was a head fake, false breakout, emerging head and shoulders pattern or simply: no more buying interest. When price broke down you could have easily entered at the rejection or at the pullback.
Another zone of no interest is the light purple area, which has been established by big bars breaking through it and where one side has been swept. When price broke through and traded above, you could've used the pullback to go long (in the middle of the range though) or when it broke below to go short or to finally close your losing long position.
Quick cheat number 1 on applying support and resistance:
Switch to a line chart, check for the prominent highs and lows, switch back to candle or whatever your preference is and adjust (or don't ;) ).
3 different types of charts, all displaying the same. It is not perfect, it is not a pin point "you will always win and never lose" system, but markets consist of humans which aren't perfect either; and as long as machines are made by men, they aren't neither. And this is the reality of trading: nothing is a one-shot, a bullseye; nothing is perfect.
At last, there is more to trading than placing a limit order into a chart and get rich quick.
Quick cheat number 2 (that no one will tell you because it is too simple to sell it):
Look to the left! Markets have memories, because - and I'm repeating - markets consist of humans, and the only reference points others may use are not any calculations, extensions or fantastic AI structures: at the end it is all derived from history. How did price react at the last reference point? What happened next?
Let's quickly example this:
Think of it yourself: do you want to re-evaluate every tick hunting for signals on a vast amount of indicators or are you just keeping it simple (stupid)?
Key Takeaways
Don’t trade somewhere in nowhere!
Future price action depends on past action!
Switch your perspective if a change has become evident!
Trade less, earn more!
___
Note:
As I’m writing a book about reading a chart,
I am going to post a couple of short articles on this topic and others related to it, e.g. trend, volume , Dow theory, auction theory and behaviorism.
If you are spotting some errors or if you like to add something, feel free to comment or pm.
Cheers,
Constantine -
p.s.: This article is not intended as any kind of trading advice. If anything concerning this topic remains unclear, drop a message or a comment.
I've also linked a previous analysis of a trade where you can see a walk-through of the principles as described above
Power of compounding interest, but why do traders still fail ?
Hello everyone:
Welcome to this quick educational video on Compounding interest in trading.
Today I want to break down the benefits of compounding a trading account while keeping good risk management at bay.
The reason why compounding interest is so lucrative is due to investing interest on top of interest, and your trading account can grow much faster than traditional investment returns.
The important note is that, by having strict risk management rules, proper trading plan, the account can grow over time. But why do many traders fail to do so ?
Let's take a deeper look into this:
Many new/beginner traders often get involved in trading due to its profitable potential.
However, most of them do not learn about risk management, trading psychology on mindset and emotions.
They tend to over trade, over leverage their accounts in hope to double it in a short period of time.
This almost always leads to traders to blow their accounts, and re-deposit more money to “chase/revenge” their losses, and the cycle continues.
The truth is, growing the account by compounding can eventually double a trading account, but only in time and with strict risk management rules.
However, the greed, emotion and mindset often become the tread stone for the traders’ success.
It's important to understand that having a consistent, sustainable approach in trading can lead to profits and growth over time, but it's not something that is instantaneous, which is what most new/beginner traders often misunderstood.
This can be due to social media, and lots of typical trading “guru” out there promising guaranteed results and easy money.
Take a step back and think about compounding interest in time and scale. 5-7.5% return per month may not seem much for a small trading account, but it is sustainable and consistent by not over-risking and over-trading.
In time when the account is at a larger scale, a few % return with compound effect in a year can generate very sizable return and growth.
In today’s trading industry, there are many prop firms out there that allow you to trade their funds, if you can be consistent and sustainable.
Understand these firms are not looking for traders to double their larger capital, rather, to have consistent return and proper risk management.
When you can prove you can be consistent to compound a small account, then when you actually do trade a larger account, the % return would be the same.
Last Note:
Build up the right habits from the start. Your job in the beginning of trading is not to make massive returns, rather to focus on risk management, control emotion, and understand trading psychology.
Once all these are checked, then you will be miles ahead of other traders who are still struggling to understand the concept.
Any questions, comments or feedback welcome to let me know.
Thank you
Jojo
Detail Look into Parallel Channel In Price Action Analysis
Hello everyone:
Let's take another detailed look into some parallel channels structures/patterns in price action analysis.
Recall my previous educational video on Ascending/descending channel correction, they are higher probability reversal price action structures/patterns.
Today I want to go over the horizontal parallel channel structures/patterns as well where they are more neutral,
more advanced to analyze and forecast the potential direction of the impulse phase following after.
Let's take a look into some of these horizontal parallel channel corrections, and break them down more.
In my opinion, the longer, deeper these types of parallel channels go, the stronger the next impulsive phase will be.
Although they can be tricky depending on whether they are continuation or reversal correction.
I will go over for examples in different markets to pinpoint some of these price action structures/patterns.
Below are some of the important topics that I mentioned in the video.
Reversal Ascending/Descending Channel
Risk Management: 3 different entries on how to enter the impulsive phrase of price action
Multi-time frame analysis
Identify a correction in price action analysis
Continuation and Reversal Correction
Any questions, comments, or feedback welcome to let me know thx :)
Jojo
How to identify a correction for the next impulse move ? How to identify if a correction is finished/completed and ready for the next impulse move ?
Hello everyone:
In this educational video I will go over how to properly identify a correction in price action analysis.
I recently made a price action workshop live stream video that went over everything on impulse - correction, structures/patterns, continuation and reversal corrections,
but I still get a lot of questions on identifying corrections itself.
How to draw, use the trendlines to identify a correction, and how to understand they are going to complete/finish.
In my opinion this is the most important part in technical analysis.
We need to understand that the market moves in phrases, it can only be in the impulsive phrase or corrective phrase.
The key to trading is to understand when a correction finishes, we are going to get the impulsive phrase which will give us traders a better edge in the market to enter, where the momentum is strong.
I have made many educational posts on price action analysis, specifically on continuation or reversal correction, which I will put the links below.
Any questions, comments, or feedback welcome to let me know.
Thank you
Jojo
Price Action Workshop
www.tradingview.com
Impulse VS Correction
Continuation and Reversal Correction
Multi-time frame analysis
Continuation Bull/Bear Flag
Reversal Ascending/Descending Channel
Reversal Double Top/Bottom
Reversal Head & Shoulder Pattern
Reversal “M” and “W” style pattern
Reversal Impulse Price Action
Expanding Structure/Pattern
Risk Management: Entry in the impulsive phrase of price action Hello everyone:
Welcome back to another video on risk management.
Today I want to discuss a few possible entries that we can do in the market when we spot the next impulsive phrase of the market condition.
I will break down the 3 types of entries that I always look for when I am about to execute a trade.
Sometimes we will see all 3 entries present themselves, and sometimes we might only see 1 or 2. So let's dig into these entries.
All entries are based on the continuation or reversal structure on the LTF mostly.
So I need to see a LTF correction forming and potentially completing before setting any of these entries.
In addition, they have to be aligned with the HTF overall direction and bias. Multi-time frame analysis is key.
All my entries are stop entry order, meaning the market needs to hit a certain price before getting triggered. Buy Stop or Sell Stop order.
You may see variations of these entries in different strategies or styles, but here are my take on them and my way of using them in my trading.
Let me give a few examples of each on different markets and pairs to show the potential move and possible entry criteria.
Below are same other Risk Management you should know in trading.
Risk Management 101
Risk Management: How to set a Take Profit (TP) for your trades
Risk Management: How to Enter and set SL and TP for an impulse move in the market
Risk Management: How to scale in the impulsive phrase of the market condition?
Risk Management: Combine everything you learn to prevent blowing a trading account
Impulse VS Correction
Continuation and Reversal Correction
Multi-time frame analysis
Does news events affect price action analysis in trading ?Hello everyone:
Today I want to discuss news events in trading. Often when a news event comes out in the market, we get some sort of volatility and we get a strong spike/impulse.
However, does news events affect our ways of understanding price action analysis ?
Let's take a look at a few examples of the recent FOMC volatility that happened in the forex, indices and commodity market.
Most of the market had a sharp quick move to one direction, hinting a sign of weakness in USD/JPY..etc.
However, all of them ended up with a reversal impulse, and recovered all the price from the volatility.
So, what can we take away from this ? News certain creates volatility, but not the overall price action trending direction.
We may get a temporary short term move, but eventually the market recovers it, and resumes its original direction.
Often beginner/newcomer traders will try to “jump” onto the news momentum, but usually end too late, and they will take a BE or losses.
We can not control the outcome of the news or whether the news will be positive or negative towards our trades, but what we can control is our entry, SL, TP, risk management, emotions and mindset.
Any questions, comments or feedback welcome to let me know :)
Thank you
Jojo
Expanding Structures/Patterns in Price Action AnalysisHello everyone:
Welcome back to another price action structures/pattern educational video.
Today I want to discuss the expanding structure that I always see in the market.
These structures/patterns are a bit more advanced, as they are not so clear on whether it's a continuation or a reversal correction.
Lets dig into some typical forms that I always see in the market, and discuss the possible opportunities we can get from them.
Expanding structure can come in all sorts of sizes and shapes.
They are not the typical channel, flag, pennant/triangle, Head and Shoulder that we usually encounter.
The key here is to identify them and observe if we are going to get trend continuations, or trend reversal after the correction finished.
Any questions, comments or feedback welcome to let me know below.
I will include all other types of price action structures/corrections that I have discussed in the past below, for everyone’s references.
Thank you
Jojo
Impulse VS Correction
Continuation and Reversal Correction
Multi-time frame analysis
Continuation Bull/Bear Flag
Reversal Ascending/Descending Channel
Reversal Double Top/Bottom
Reversal Head & Shoulder Pattern
Reversal “M” and “W” style pattern
Reversal Impulse Price Action
Trading Strategies and Style - Price Action Analysis
Hello everyone:
Recently I have many newcomers/subscribers/followers on my various channels and platforms, so I want to make this video to summarize what exactly are my strategies and style in trading.
It's important to understand everyone trades differently, and different styles and strategies.
What's more important is to understand if the strategies and style work for you and you only as a trader.
Does a typical style/strategy satisfy your vision in trading ?
Does the risk/reward make sense to you as a trader ?
Does the trading plan and management sound feasible and realistic to you ?
Do you have the right mindset and emotion when it comes to trading these types of strategies and style ?
These are the questions to think about when you are serious about trading.
So, let's take a look into how I trade and what are the key important aspects that I look for in trading.
-Price Action Analysis
-Impulse VS Correction
-Continuation VS Reversal Correction/Structure
-Multi time frame analysis (top down approach)
-Risk Management (3:1 RR)
-Trading Psychology (Mindset and emotion) (FOMO, Revenge Trading, Over Leverage Trading)
As always, any questions, comments or feedback welcome to let me know.
Thank you
Jojo
Crypto backtesting and chart work in price action analysis
Hello everyone:
Today let's do some backtesting and chart work on the crypto market.
I have done similar videos on Forex and Indices’ market, and I want to do one as well for crypto to showcase price action that will happen in any market, any time frame.
Make sure to check out the below videos on why I backtest and do chart work. This is to help us to get better at trading as a whole, and remove emotional decisions.
I will dig back some crypto pairs and look at the bullish impulse on the HTF, and go down to the LTF for confirmation and entries.
Any questions, comments, or feedback please let me know :)
Thank you
Jojo
Backtesting & Chartwork on Forex Market
Backtesting & Chartwork on Indices Market
How & Why I backtest:
Prevent Blowing an account by backtesting:
Reversal Impulse Price Action - Trend Change Confirmation Hello everyone:
Welcome back to another price action structures/patterns video.
Today let's take a look into the reversal Impulse price action from the market.
I have back tested and seen these types of price action happen very often in any market, any time frame. Its signaling a very strong trend change and reversal momentum from the price.
Let's take a look into what it looks like usually, and how to effectively take advantage of these types of price action in the market.
Seeing them on the HTF, giving us strong bias for a reversal trend change coming.
Seeing them on the LTF, signs of reversal from the LTF first, and leading towards the beginning of the HTF reversal move.
Remember, Multi-time frame analysis is key. If we spot a potential HTF reversal impulse, then likely LTF price action is also showing reversal price action structures/patterns.
We want to pair as many positive confluences as we can together to give us an edge entering the trades.
As always, any questions, comments or feedback please let me know.
Thank you
Jojo
Is there stop loss hunting in trading ? How to deal with it ?Hello everyone:
Today I want to discuss a common discussion about new and experienced traders.
“Is there stop loss hunting in trading?”
Many wonder, since they can all recall the moment where price just hits their SL on a trade, and then the market quickly turns around towards their desired profit direction.
I want to dig deeper into this and explain it with different viewpoints, from a technical and psychological view.
The vision I am trying to provide is that, thinking about is there stop loss from the brokers won't help you to get better in trading.
It's a mindset thing we need to understand. For example, whether there is or isn't a stop loss hunting, it's nothing you or I can change or control. It is what it is.
However, if you understand this, then it's about adjusting your plan, strategies and trading style to these types of volatility moves and come up with the correct mindset to work around it.
Technical part:
More often, people set their SL and see their trades get taken out just a few pips above before reversing the opposite way.
Dig deeper into this. Is it a fake breakout, is it just being impatient and jumping the gun?
Is there LTF continuation/reversal correction that gives you bias to enter a long/short ?
Is your analysis aligned with the higher time frames ?
Many factors on why a trade is at a loss, no need to jump right into a conclusion that it's the broker who is stop hunting you.
This is why we always look for confirmation and confluence when we enter trades.
Just because the price breaks the support and resistance line people often use, it's not an automatic buy or sell.
Same goes with trend lines and other indicators people use.
We need to confirm it with price action. After an impulse phrase, was there a continuation correction phrase? If not, then it doesn't justify a buy entry.
This is also why we backtest so we see these types of price action often, and acknowledge what we need to do in order to work our ways around it.
Psychological part:
When traders take a loss in this way, hitting the SL and reverse, this creates a negative emotion in them.
They often get frustrated and upset, hence in human nature, we tend to blame others.
But take a step back and understand this:
The market can do whatever it wants to do.
Most beginner and newcomer traders think the market MUST follow their strategies and style. If it doesn't, then something is wrong with the market, the brokers, their mentor/coach, their strategies...etc.
This negative mindset needs to change.
First of all no strategies and style will promise you 100% strike rate and profit.
Any strategies you take will incur a loss, it's how you deal and manage it that will show you as a consistent or inconsistent trader.
Second, if you have experienced several losses due to the “Stop hunt” in your own mind, then instead of blaming the brokers or the markets, start looking into your trading plan and management.
Are you experiencing FOMO ? Are you over leverage trading, and revenge trading ? Are you taking into consideration your risk management ? Entry, SL/TP, how much to risk ? Is it consistent with your plan ?
These are the things you can control, rather than external factors which you can not. Adjust yourself.
Third, remove your negative emotion from your losses. Take it as a learning curve and experiences earned.
Then the next time you enter a trade, you will remember the lessons that were taught to you by the market.
This is why we journal our trades so we can look back at them and understand what we did.
I hope these few pointers will help some of you to get back on the positive direction of trading.
No need to think and get upset if there is a stop hunting of your trades. Instead, use that towards your advantages.
If you consistently see a false breakout and reverse, then come up with a strategy and plan to capture that reversal move.
No need to blame the market or the broker, that is something you can not control. Jumping brokers to brothers simply won't help you to eliminate that psychological mindset of a stop hunting.
I will put below several other educational videos on the topic we discussed today.
As always, any questions, comments or feedback welcome to let me know :)
Trading Plan:
Risk Management:
Trading Psychology:
FOMO:
Revenge Trading:
Over Leverage:
Risk Management: How to set a Take Profit (TP) for your trades Hello everyone:
Today let's dig into an important topic of setting a Take Profit (TP).
While many traders will often have different strategies and methods on a TP, let's take a look on my approach and style on this.
ITs important to understand there is no right or wrong when it comes to setting a TP.
ITs what you have in your plan and what makes sense to you as a trader. It should align with your strategies and trading style also.
Some may take profit quicker and move on, while others hold for longer term. Understand that both methods can have drawbacks, it's what trading is, double edge.
So, make sure we follow our plan and executive accordingly to our management. Otherwise we are just making emotional decisions again.
Let's look at a few scenarios on how I would set a TP.
Directly tie in TP is a SL. I usually will only enter a trade if I have 3:1 RR.
Meaning risking 1% to gain 3% or more. Therefore my TP will almost always be 3 times of initial SL amount or room.
Few TP scenarios:
-Beginning of the the previous correctional structure
-Double Bottoms/swings low area, watch for LTF reversal price action and correction
When price breaks ATH, monitor the price action on the LTF for bearish reversal.
I would want to see a trend change, rather than a pullback.
Few things to consider:
-Understand you will never enter at the lowest point, and exit at the highest point
Make sure you have a plan before so you will not get into an emotional decision.
Always know what you plan to do before it happens.
No Right or wrong as long as you follow your original plan.
You can of course in time modify your plan based on market conditions.
Any questions, comments or feedback please let me know :)
Thank you
US Indices Backtesting and Charting Session On Price Action Hello everyone:
As promised I will periodically make these backtesting/chart work videos on different markets, pairs and timeframes.
This is for me to present the importance of backtesting in trading consistency.
Not only it will help traders to not have emotional decisions such as FOMO or fear of losing, it will give traders confidence at identifying trade opportunities and execute them when the time comes.
The more we do backtesting, the easier we spot an entry, setting a SL/TP, and remove any emotional decisions.
Today I want to go into the US Indices, specifically the SPY, NASDAQ, DOW. I will pick a few market crashed examples and dig deeper into them.
Few educational videos below on the topic of backtesting, and why it will help you in your trading journey.
How & Why I backtest:
Prevent Blowing an account by backtesting:
Backtesting & Chartwork on USDCAD:
Any questions, comments, or feedback please let me know :)
Thank you
Jojo
Detail look into “M” & “W” Structures/Patterns in Price Action
Hello everyone:
Welcome back to another price action structures/patterns video.
Today let's take a look into the “M” and “W” style structures/patterns.
Many traders may use these types of structures/patterns in their trading plan/strategies.
Let me show you guys my interpretation of them, and how I utilize them in my trading as well.
It's important to understand many of my previous price action analysis, structures/patterns videos all tie into this one as well, I will put those links below.
Essentially, a “M” or “W” style pattern is a double tops/bottoms pattern that appears mostly towards an end of a run of the current price.
They are “reversal” price action structures/patterns. They are most effective when we tie in other price action structures/patterns with it.
Let me give multiple examples of these structures/patterns in different markets and time frames.
“M” Style Pattern
-Double tops structure after price failed to continue the first initial push down.
-Top of the Right M, needs to have a reversal structure on the LTF or smaller time frames (ascending channel, H and S pattern..etc)
-Can either enter at the breakout of the reversal structure or the first correction after the impulse down
“W” Style Pattern
-Double Bottoms after price failed to continue the first initial push up.
-bottom of the Right W, needs to have a reversal structure on the LTF or smaller time frames (descending channel, Inverse H and S pattern..etc)
-Can either enter at the breakout of the reversal structure or the first correction after the impulse up
Double Top/Bottoms:
Ascending/Descending channel:
Head and Shoulder Pattern:
Continuation/Reversal Correction:
Multi-Time Frame Analysis:
As always, any questions, comments or feedback please let me know.
Thank you
Jojo
Risk Management: prevent blowing a trading account
Hello everyone:
Today I want to go in depth into this particular topic as many beginner traders will make this similar mistake in trading sometimes in their trading journey.
It's important to understand that it's all part of a learning curve you must endure when it comes to consistency in trading. I myself had done this in the beginning of my trading time, and it ultimately comes down to how you manage your emotion that is going to help you to learn from this mistake and move forward. Some may go ahead and start making the mistakes that I will mention below, and accelerate into blowing their account. Some may acknowledge what's happening, and learn from their mistakes to prevent such things from happening in the future.
There are several key factors on what a trader should do and understand in order to not blow a trading account. I have made several key videos on these different topics which I will include below. I will touch on all these topics to provide a well-rounded suggestion and feedback on this matter. It's very important that you must have a good understanding of each area so it will help you to not only be consistent but to also continue to grow and compound your trading account in the future.
Few key points:
Trading Plan
A trading plan outlines your plan, rules and management for your trades. You must have a good written plan to guide you in situations. We don't make emotional decisions that may lead to many trading errors. Focus on creating one is the start. Have a few go to setups that you always look for in the market. Identify them and screenshot them so you know to take those over and over again.
Backtesting
We backtest so we are familiar with price action and the market’s movement. By backtesting, we train our brain to recognize the same/similar price action that has happened in the past. This allows us to execute without fear, or fear of missing out.
Backtest & Chartwork
Forecasting/Scanning the market:
Forecast the market is how we get a bias with the current live price action of the market. We see setups we like, and have confirmations to enter. If they don't happen or develop, no trade and move on. No need to have “ego” to prove everyone you are right.
How to scan the market
Risk management
Stick to proper risk management. 1% or a set amount is usually the best. Having a 3:1 RR is ideal when trading so even if you are less than 50% strike rate trader, you will see at least BE or small profits. Make sure you understand the exposure you are putting yourself into.
Stop Loss
When it comes to calculating your entries, you must set a Stop less on every trade. Don't just remove it in hope the price will turn around. Many new traders often don't set SL or move them as price gets close. This is how you will lose more money in the long run.
Trading Psychology: (FOMO)
Fear of missing out and fear of losing are the biggest trading psychology trader encounter. However, if you do enough backtesting, and have a plan in place, you can potentially remove these emotions. Understand that you will never capture all the moves that happen in the market, be graceful and positive on the opportunities you get.
Over Leveraged
Most new traders over leveraged their account. Having a small account with huge leverage is why traders blow their account in a short time. Leverage can work for you as well as against you. You must understand properly on leverage, margin and more. This ties you with your risk management and your SL.
Revenge trading
When new traders start losing money, they tend to want to “revenge” their losses by entering random trades, multiple trades and more. This combining with over leverage is how a new trader can blow their account in 1 day.
Journal:
Last but not least, journal down every single trade that you have taken. Whether it resulted in profit or loss. This is how you can learn from your past experiences. Do not deviate from this. Most new traders feel this is unnecessary and choose not to do it. Unfortunately, if you don't do them, your trading journey will not move forward. You will still make the same mistakes over and over again. Blowing an account is something no one wants to go through, but if a trader does not acknowledge his/her mistakes, then it is very likely to happen again and again.
So these are the few key areas where a trader should pay close attention to in order to not blow their trading account. The different strategies you trade aren't the issues why some blow their accounts, rather it's about their plan, management, mindset, emotion, psychology and expectations that ultimately decide the faith of the trading account.
Thank you
Jojo
USDCAD Backtesting & Chart Work session on Price Action AnalysisHello everyone:
Welcome to a backtesting/charting session on price action analysis.
Many have inquired about how to properly identify market phrases (Impulse phrase vs corrective phrase).
In addition, how to use trendline properly to identify a structure/pattern as a continuation or reversal correction.
This session will be the start to all these.
So let's take a look into this. To start, make sure you have a new chart layout just for backtesting/charting work.
his won't get overlapped on your current chart for your normal analysis.
Utilizing tradingview’s feature on “replay”, this is how we can backtest and do chart work on previous price action that has already happened.
As we already see the price moved in that period of time, we then look for potential buy/sell bias entries to get familiar with the move within the market.
1. Start from the Higher time frames, top down approach. Utilize multi-time frame analysis to your advantage.
2. Identify what market phrase you are in, is the current price in a HTF impulse phrase ? or in a corrective phrase.
3. Now that you have a more clear bias on the HTF, then go down to the lower time frame to confirm your bias.
Do we see the same bearish/bullish price action on the LTF as well ? If so then that's a good indication that both HTF and LTF have the same buy/sell opportunity.
Look for possible entries on the LTF.
4. Repeat this process with different pairs, different markets to “program” our minds into looking for the similar buy/sell setups in the current, live market.
This is how we don't get FOMO, or fear of losing. If you have done enough backtesting and charting, then you simply remove the emotion out of the equation.
You have seen the move play out over and over again, then it comes down to probabilities.
Feel free to ask me questions, comments or feedback :)
Thank you
Weekly Trading Recaps: AUDJPY, XLMUSD, SUGAR, BTCUSD Jan 24 2021Hello everyone
Welcome back to another quick weekly trade recap video on the positions.
I am currently in the mountains (lol) so may not get to my usual weekly outlook stream due to internet. But hopefully still update analysis :)
AUDJPY - Second position got out for BE. Currently in the third position in.
XLMUSD - Took out for a 1% loss.
BTCUSD - Still Holding, currently @ 3% profit.
SUGAR - Still holding, currently @ 2.5% profit.
Any questions, comments, or feedback welcome to let me know below.
Thank you
How I trade Head and Shoulder Price Action Pattern/StructureHello everyone:
In this quick educational video, I will go over how I utilize Head and Shoulder Pattern/structure in the market.
Specifically, how I identify reversal price action from a Head and Shoulder Pattern.
It's important to understand that Head and Shoulder Is a reversal structure in the market.
When we identify these patterns, they are usually at the top or the bottom of the over price action,
and its signaling a bullish or a bearish trend may be exhausted, and a reversal trend may begin.
Typical H and S will have a bullish move up, followed by a continuation correction (Left Shoulder), and move up again.
At the peak (Head) , instead of a continuation to push up further, we then see a reversal bearish push down.
Then, we see price form that bearish continuation correction (Right Shoulder) now, looking to push the price back lower.
Just like any other price action structures/patterns that I have been talking about, these structures/patterns will appear in any time frames, any market.
So it's important to understand multi-time frame analysis and top down approach.
A 5 min H and S pattern may not be that strong reversal to give you 100 plus pips because the HTF is showing us different bias.
From my experiences, a H and S pattern works best when we spot on the LTF price action. When we have a clear bias on the HTF for a potential bearish reversal, we go down to the LTF to look for confirmation and entry.
Remember a H and S pattern will not always be “textbook” perfect like you will learn from various courses/lessons. The market itself is not perfect, so remember that when you analyze the market.
Last but not least, and inverse H and S is just a mirror of a typical H and S. It's just now you are spotting them at the bottom of the overall price action, and rather to reverse into a bullish trend.
As always, any questions, comments or feedback please let me know.
Thank you
Jojo
Setting up and utilize tradingview (layout, drawing panel)Hello everyone:
Welcome back to a quick video on tradingview setups. Many of you have asked me about how you should set up your charts, your settings, customizations, watchlist..etc. So I will make a quick explanation video on this.
Chart:
-Create a blank chart
-Save under different names for different purposes
-candlesticks
-timeframes
-screens
-syncing
Setting/customization:
-color
-appearances
Drawing Panels:
-favorite the ones you're gonna use the most.
Watchlist:
-create watchlist
-flagging
Alerts:
-set only the ones with high probability potential, do need to set like 30 alarms.
As always, any questions, comments or feedback please let me know.
Thank you