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forexTrdr Sunday Setups: EURUSD ALL EYES ON THE PRIZE.. 100DMAHi all and welcome to our Sunday Setups a new technical analysis piece where we are looking to showcase our work and highlight our 20 years of professional trading experience at the worlds best Investment Banks. Our aim is to keep analysis simple so that anyone can follow and learn from our work and hopefully our past performance highlights why we are different. Interested in finding out more? Head over to our profile page and please give us a follow Please comment and leave feedback- we will be bringing our analysis via video soon First on the agenda is EURUSD- as per chart we have a descending trendline dating back to September, what we are looking for here is a potential retest of the 100 day moving average (1.1367) before a pull back to year to date lows and a move to 1.1130 area over the next few weeks. Risk is we have a break out to the upside and escape out of the descending trendline towards 1.142 area. Countering that however, from tech perspective, the pair is at the top of the overbought range on RSI (bottom chart). From fundamental side European growth continues to come in at the lower end of recent performance and the ECB has announced further stimulus through the extension of TLTRO- a form of cheap funding to the banking sector. US continues to storm ahead on growth and looks to have bottomed out in January- last weeks NFP looks nothing more than a fluke number which occurs from time to time. This week we have Fed meeting on Wednesday where we expect to hear comments around growth having bottomed out at start of year and a pickup in economic activity in line with what we are seeing in other forward looking indicators and Chinese stimulus. Week Ahead Tuesday 19th March: German ZEW Survey - very low impact US Factory Orders & Durable goods - low impact Wednesday 20th March: Fed Meeting - potential for high impact Thursday 21st March: European consumer confidence - low impact Trend : Descending trendline since the high on 24th September Series of lower highs and lower lows since start of 2019 Tech levels: Major keys to upside: 1.1367 the 100 day moving average and around the top of the descending trendline from September 1.1418 February high Major keys to downside: 1.1290 January low 1.1235 February low 1.1187, 61.8% retracement of 2017 low to 2018 high 1.1177, YTD low
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by forexTrdr
4
AUDUSD SELL #ForecastTechnical Analysis: -4h has reversed twice off of the Monthly resistance we have -4h candle has also closed below our trend line -On the 1h you can see how nicely price broke through the trend line, it technically already retested it and dropped so we may not see it happen again. -Purple zone is in confluence with fib levels and where we had price drop on the hourly before -We have a market shift in momentum to the downside on the 1h -Wait for price to get into the purple zone and print a reversal or exhaustion pattern before selling ** I would be careful with this since EURAUD looks to be dropping as well and selling both would be a little contradictory. But, it can 100% happen. **
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by EsotericTrader
EURUSD Quick Short Trade *LEARN TO TRADE MARKET GAPS*I have recently had a lot of success trading the weekend market gaps forming on a few major FX currency pairs so I thought I would show you another example and explain it in more detail. Market gaps most commonly occur when price moves quicker than the market or, in the case of weekends, when the market is closed. Things happen in the market over the weekend so when Sunday evening trading opens, price has normally moved or "gapped" away from the close price on Friday. I don't trade every gap I see in the market and that is because of how the gap forms as part of the prevailing trend that is showing. I always try to trade with the trend and use market gaps as a discounted way of entering into a normal trend following trade. This example is on EURUSD. The market gaps upon opening and is now around 20 pips higher than the close price on Friday. This is good because the price has gapped up when I have the bearish trend marked on the chart with the lower highs and bearish TL. A gap up means I can enter short and be onside with the current bearish trend. This seriously helps with profitability and success in the long term. My confluences for taking this trade are: - RSI showing over bought. - Price is around daily pivot level. - Bearish trendline - Lower highs and lows. I always place my Stoploss 10 pips above the current high when taking my pivot trades and I have used this same method for these quick gap trades. Profit Targets: My TP1 is always set to the Friday close price. This means the gap has been fulfilled. TP2 is set at the daily S1 level. This is taken from my day trading strategy because if there is a lot of momentum then it makes sense to ride it out for more profit. TP3 is set at the daily S2 level if there is still enough bearish momentum to make it there. R:R Ratios: - If price makes it to TP1 then that is a very simple 2:1 trade. - TP2 would make the trade a 4:1 trade. - TP3 would make this trade over 6:1 R:R which is crazy but sometimes possible if there enough momentum in the markets. Thanks for reading and I hope this helps at least a few of you to start spotting and trading market gaps. They really are very good to help you get a head start on the week ahead and lock in a few % profit before Monday has even began!
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by UnknownUnicorn772665
1
A Simple Leading Indicator of the US EconomyLeading indicators come in two types: the first refers to those giving out information on how the economy is doing at the moment, like PMIs and sentiment indices, and the second refers to those giving out hints about the future. The second type, despite its importance, is often overlooked as it usually does not come in ready-made form and requires some additional work. Despite this, the leading indicator of the second type that we will deal with in this post requires a minimal amount of work. The reason is that it’s already in an easy-to-use format and it can be readily found on the web. This leading indicator is none other than the monthly unemployment rate, which can be easily located on the Federal Reserve Database. Why should one care? Simply put, the unemployment rate is a good predictor of recessions. Over the last three recessions, the unemployment rate moved higher in the period prior to the downturn, while it moved downwards between recessions. Why do we just focus on the last three recessions when it appears to work for at least one other as the image suggests? The answer is that in the 1970s and 1980s recessions were not domestically-originated events but were more related to external (oil price) shocks. Thus, the comparison would not be correct. Indicator Image Note that when extracting a recession signal from the above indicator it does not mean that traders should panic every time the unemployment rate increases a bit. These occasional, one-off events will likely not be correlated with the overall movement but, as the figure shows, they will always be present in the data. Furthermore, it is usually the case that unemployment rises in the aftermath of a crisis, and thus this should not be considered as a sign for further deterioration, but as a signal for a labour market delay in adjustment. What does the indicator currently suggest? Simply put, the indicator does not suggest, at the moment, any signs of deterioration in the US economy, as increases appear to have been just one-off events. At the moment, despite the unemployment rate increase to 4% in January, likely the result of the US government shutdown, the rate is at lows, with no signs of moving upwards. Thus, there does not appear to be any recession indication, at least at the moment. Still, given that the rate has been fluctuating in the 3.8%-4% area for a while, perhaps it could be interpreted as a sign of a slowdown. Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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by HotForex
XAUUSD LONGAnalysis: -1hr structure continuation to the upside -70-79% rejection -MA Bounce/Reject -Long bullish hammer on MA -Previous Resistance becoming support -4 hr doji candle Emotions: -Woke up late and rushed -Wasn't even supposed to be able to look at charts this morning so grateful for that -Skimmed through analysis -Didn't read through my trading plan -Was not focused or in the zone -Was feeling a little hesitant with some opportunities because I did not want to enter too many trades.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by EsotericTrader
Dont be a D#@k... its DUCK honestly ;p Here we have some really strong support and resistance levels drawn on the chart ( green lines ) They are classed as strong because price touched them and then bounce a number of times ( I will let you figure these out for yourselves... I'm not spoon feeding you ) ;p You can also see a lovely trend line TL that has been touched more than once, so this is also classed as strong. Now because these levels an TL are strong a break of any of these could see a big move, again you can see all this on the charts. When price is these key levels in NO MANS LAND we tend not to take a trade, we will wait for price to retest these levels and wait for a break or a bounce before jumping in a trade. I keep saying it and I will keep saying it until you get p#@sed off with me...... but patients is key!!!!!!! Get the larger timeframe charts up ( we like to use 1 day and 4H charts ) and zoom all the way out... this will make spotting these levels so much easier. So don't be a D@#k and practise this... it will make you a more profitable trader. I hope this has helped you. '
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by ApexFX_Pro
Learn how to fish Support orange arrows. Resistance purple arrows. Who says you cant see trade setups just using zones and levels? It looks pretty simple to me, You can see how strongly this zone is respected from where price has entered our zone and then bounced ( marked by arrows ) Now it seems pretty clear to us where price is heading and we haven't got any indicators on our charts at all, just clean fresh charts.... quick someone call the FOREX POLICE because we must be committing a crime as everywhere we look we see stupid charts that look like a 5 year old has drawn on them... These charts may work for the person using them but they are also used to try and confuse people into thinking that trading is hard so they will pay for help from this person. Yes we sell high quality signals, but honestly we would rather people learnt to trade themselves, this is why we don't over complicate charts... YOU CAN GIVE A HUNGRY MAN A FISH TO CURE HIS HUNGER FOR A FEW HOURS... OR YOU CAN TEACH HIM HOW TO FISH SO HE CAN EAT FOR THE REST OF HIS LIFE. We prefer to show people how to fish if you get my drift ;)
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by Apex_Gregg
11
Elliott wave Analysis: Triangle on USDMXN Points LowerHi everybody, USDMXN made a nice drop in impulsive fashion, down from 20.657 level which can be a five-wave development in the making. We can see waves 1,2 and extended wave 3 completed at the lows, so current sideways activity can be a temporary pause within the downtrend. We see this pause as a triangle correction within wave 4, which can now be trading in final stages. Once this correction finds resistance, that is when final wave 5 as part of the trend may start to develop, and take price below the 18.90 area.
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by ew-forecast
1
Importance of key SUPORT and RESISTANCE levelsAs you can see from the chart we have used purple lines to show key support and resistance levels ( levels where price has bounced off in either direction ) Even after the market crash of 2008 the price eventually found key support and resistance levels that had been used years before. The price respects these levels as thousands of traders will also be watching these levels and therefore they will also set orders for these levels hence why the price keeps respecting and bouncing off these levels. We believe in keeping trading as simple as you can to save confusion and key support and resistance levels are a key factor in our swing trading style. If you would like more lessons like this or would like to receive our signals then message us as we offer a 2 weeks FREE trial to our VIP group.
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by Stocks_And_Forex_Mafia
Elliot Wave Alternation Elliot Wave Alternation The guideline of alternation states that if wave two of an impulse is a sharp retracement, expect wave four to be a sideways correction, and vice versa. Figure 22 shows the most characteristic breakdowns of impulse waves, both up and down. Sharp corrections never include a new price extreme, i.e., one that lies beyond the orthodox end of the preceding impulse wave. They are almost always zigzag (single, double or triple); occasionally they are double threes that begin with a zigzag. Sideways corrections include flats, triangles, and double and triple corrections. They usually include a new price extreme, i.e., one that lies beyond the orthodox end of the preceding impulse wave.
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by ImSng