S&P 500 charts showing bullish momentum, closing at fresh record highs after a strong jobs report. The index surpassed 6,280, driven by a decline in the unemployment rate to 4.1%. Going long, targeting the 6,325 level.
S&P Index Cash CFD (USD) forum
๏ปฟ๐ NFP Beat Masks Fragile Undercurrent โ Services PMI Adds Rebound Hopes
๐ Friday, July 04, 2025 | โฐ 10:47 London / 05:47 NY
SPX
NDX
๐ฆ Market Context: Payrolls beat, but soft wages and private hiring signal caution
๐ Data Recap:
โข Non-Farm Payrolls (JUN) โ 147K vs 100K forecast โ ๐ผ Beat headline, weak internals
โข Avg Hourly Earnings YoY โ 3.7% vs 3.9% forecast โ ๐ฝ Cooling wage pressure
โข ISM Services PMI โ 50.8 vs 49.7 forecast โ ๐ผ Modest rebound in services
๐ Todayโs Calendar Highlights:
โข None โ Market digesting macro signals into weekend
โ Expected Bias: Position trimming ahead of next weekโs CPI + FOMC Minutes
๐ Reactions to Watch:
โข SPX: Holding 6,200+ โ short-term bullish tone holds
โข NDX: No strong confirmation โ structure still neutral
โข Gold: Holds breakout above 3,300 โ hedge flows remain active
โข USD: Weak tone โ DXY below 96.60 risks further slide
โข BTC: Needs close above 108K to confirm long re-engagement
โข Oil: Mid-range compression โ waiting for catalyst
๐ Flow Notes:
โข SPX: ๐ข Regained footing above 6,200, flow supports higher grind
โข NDX: โ๏ธ Neutral โ no breakout momentum above 23K
โข BTC: โ๏ธ Coiling โ above 108K triggers renewed energy
โข Gold: ๐ข Macro support intact โ yields rising but flows steady
โข USD: ๐ป Bear flag continues โ USD softness opens metal upside
๐ Trade Ideas for Today
โข ๐ข Long Bias: SPX โ continuation while above 6,200, tailwind from earnings and calendar slope
โข ๐ด Short Bias: USD/DXY โ bear flag, weak reaction to data despite NFP beat
โข โ๏ธ Neutral: BTC โ needs close above 108K for risk-on trigger
Best Wishes and Success to All
๐ก๏ธ Take Profits, Not Chances.
๐ฐ Manage Risk to Accumulate.
๐ฏ React with Clarity, Not Hope.
๐ Flow with Intelligence, Not Noise.
โ๏ธ Views are Personal & Educational, reflective of our Analysis and Research.
๐ฏ Summary posts only. Full context via DM
โ ๏ธ Educational content only. Not investment advice.
๐ Economic Calendar data reflects positioning as of July 04 (reported July 04)
๐ฆ Reference Tag: EconomicCalendar040725
๐ Friday, July 04, 2025 | โฐ 10:47 London / 05:47 NY
๐ฆ Market Context: Payrolls beat, but soft wages and private hiring signal caution
๐ Data Recap:
โข Non-Farm Payrolls (JUN) โ 147K vs 100K forecast โ ๐ผ Beat headline, weak internals
โข Avg Hourly Earnings YoY โ 3.7% vs 3.9% forecast โ ๐ฝ Cooling wage pressure
โข ISM Services PMI โ 50.8 vs 49.7 forecast โ ๐ผ Modest rebound in services
๐ Todayโs Calendar Highlights:
โข None โ Market digesting macro signals into weekend
โ Expected Bias: Position trimming ahead of next weekโs CPI + FOMC Minutes
๐ Reactions to Watch:
โข SPX: Holding 6,200+ โ short-term bullish tone holds
โข NDX: No strong confirmation โ structure still neutral
โข Gold: Holds breakout above 3,300 โ hedge flows remain active
โข USD: Weak tone โ DXY below 96.60 risks further slide
โข BTC: Needs close above 108K to confirm long re-engagement
โข Oil: Mid-range compression โ waiting for catalyst
๐ Flow Notes:
โข SPX: ๐ข Regained footing above 6,200, flow supports higher grind
โข NDX: โ๏ธ Neutral โ no breakout momentum above 23K
โข BTC: โ๏ธ Coiling โ above 108K triggers renewed energy
โข Gold: ๐ข Macro support intact โ yields rising but flows steady
โข USD: ๐ป Bear flag continues โ USD softness opens metal upside
๐ Trade Ideas for Today
โข ๐ข Long Bias: SPX โ continuation while above 6,200, tailwind from earnings and calendar slope
โข ๐ด Short Bias: USD/DXY โ bear flag, weak reaction to data despite NFP beat
โข โ๏ธ Neutral: BTC โ needs close above 108K for risk-on trigger
Best Wishes and Success to All
๐ก๏ธ Take Profits, Not Chances.
๐ฐ Manage Risk to Accumulate.
๐ฏ React with Clarity, Not Hope.
๐ Flow with Intelligence, Not Noise.
โ๏ธ Views are Personal & Educational, reflective of our Analysis and Research.
๐ฏ Summary posts only. Full context via DM
โ ๏ธ Educational content only. Not investment advice.
๐ Economic Calendar data reflects positioning as of July 04 (reported July 04)
๐ฆ Reference Tag: EconomicCalendar040725

Well, happy 4th of July tomorrow! Enjoy the long weekend.
I walked out of the market today with a small loss of -$52, which actually feels like a big win for me. I entered too early on the trend with an SPX short call spread (yes, fighting the trend like a true liquidity provider), influenced by the idea of the early market close.
The final drop of SPX below 6272 saved me from a potential $4,900 loss. I had been waiting for that drop for hours, and it finally came in the last 10 minutes.
Thank you, God, for todayโs lessons and for guiding me to avoid a major loss and for giving me the strength to trust my faith over my fear.
Today is a green day for me. ๐๐ป
ATH or Fade?
SPX500USD
๐ Monday, June 30, 2025 | โฐ 16:15 London/BST / 11:15 NY/EDT
๐ฆ Status: Structure Holds โ Pre-Holiday Clock Pressure Builds
๐ NAS100USD | 22,874
Structure: โ Trend intact above 22,800
Flow Bias: ๐ผ Bulls remain in control
Watch: ๐ฏ 23,000 remains the magnet โ but liquidity may thin post-London
๐ No need to fight the flow โ just respect the timing.
๐ SPX500USD | 6,283.7
Gamma Map: โ Above flip, inside continuation zone
Risk: ๐งญ Dealer support fading into close
๐ Compression breakout respected โ but extension risk increases
๐ BTC, DXY, Yields
BTC: ๐ฅ 109,598 โ lagging tech, risk proxy softening
Gold: ๐ฝ 3,325 โ failed breakout
DXY/Yields: ๐ผ Nudging higher โ may cap risk-on momentum
VIX: ๐ฝ 16.42 โ masking underlying tension
๐ฏ Takeaway:
Levels mapped. Markets respected them.
But with London close nearing and US holiday ahead, the clock now matters more than the price.
๐ NAS100USD โ 22,874
๐ SPX500USD โ 6,283
๐ BTC โ Still lagging at 109K
๐ Gold โ Rejected off highs
๐ VIX โ Slipping, but risk rising
๐ Yields + DXY โ Nudging up = caution
๐ฏ Summary Insight:
Donโt fight the structure โ but do respect the clock.
๐ London close is near, and holiday de-risking can reverse intraday drifts.
Momentum favours bulls โ but itโs thin ice above.
Best Wishes and Success to All
๐ก๏ธ Take Profits, Not Chances.
๐ฐ Manage Risk to Accumulate.
๐ฏ React with Clarity, Not Hope.
๐ Flow with Intelligence, Not Noise.
โ๏ธ Views are Personal & Educational, reflective of our Analysis and Research.
๐ฏ Summary posts only. Full context via DM
โ ๏ธ Educational content only. Not investment advice.
๐ Monday, June 30, 2025 | โฐ 16:15 London/BST / 11:15 NY/EDT
๐ฆ Status: Structure Holds โ Pre-Holiday Clock Pressure Builds
๐ NAS100USD | 22,874
Structure: โ Trend intact above 22,800
Flow Bias: ๐ผ Bulls remain in control
Watch: ๐ฏ 23,000 remains the magnet โ but liquidity may thin post-London
๐ No need to fight the flow โ just respect the timing.
๐ SPX500USD | 6,283.7
Gamma Map: โ Above flip, inside continuation zone
Risk: ๐งญ Dealer support fading into close
๐ Compression breakout respected โ but extension risk increases
๐ BTC, DXY, Yields
BTC: ๐ฅ 109,598 โ lagging tech, risk proxy softening
Gold: ๐ฝ 3,325 โ failed breakout
DXY/Yields: ๐ผ Nudging higher โ may cap risk-on momentum
VIX: ๐ฝ 16.42 โ masking underlying tension
๐ฏ Takeaway:
Levels mapped. Markets respected them.
But with London close nearing and US holiday ahead, the clock now matters more than the price.
๐ NAS100USD โ 22,874
๐ SPX500USD โ 6,283
๐ BTC โ Still lagging at 109K
๐ Gold โ Rejected off highs
๐ VIX โ Slipping, but risk rising
๐ Yields + DXY โ Nudging up = caution
๐ฏ Summary Insight:
Donโt fight the structure โ but do respect the clock.
๐ London close is near, and holiday de-risking can reverse intraday drifts.
Momentum favours bulls โ but itโs thin ice above.
Best Wishes and Success to All
๐ก๏ธ Take Profits, Not Chances.
๐ฐ Manage Risk to Accumulate.
๐ฏ React with Clarity, Not Hope.
๐ Flow with Intelligence, Not Noise.
โ๏ธ Views are Personal & Educational, reflective of our Analysis and Research.
๐ฏ Summary posts only. Full context via DM
โ ๏ธ Educational content only. Not investment advice.
