Here’s the probability setup heading into the week:
📉 Monday, May 19 – 33.3% chance of climbing → That’s a bear day, no matter how you slice it.
📉 Tuesday, May 20 – 38.1% chance of climbing → Another bear day setup.
⚖️ Wednesday, May 21 – 47.6% chance of climbing → Basically a coin toss.
📈 Thursday, May 22 – 52.4% chance of climbing → Slight bullish edge.
📈 Friday, May 23 – 52.4% chance of climbing → Slight edge, but… Note: The Friday before Memorial Day tends to be dull. Dow is mixed: up 13, down 12 in the last 25 years, with an average return of -0.03%.
Looking ahead, the week of May 26 is looking extremely bullish, and the first couple days of June historically follow that same strength.
As for BTCUSD and crypto—it’s wild how it often front-runs the market. XRPUSD in particular has been reacting before the S&P even opens. It’s like it knows what’s coming, and lately, it’s been closely tracking the S&P 500’s moves.
US500NDXNIFTY_MID_SELECTBANKNIFTYNIFTY All the bulls.I want to warn you.Please be neutral before reading this.I predicted the exact bottom 22700-22500 range on NIFTY50 and 5000-4900 on SNP500.(not boasting about it)Here are few points which make me consider that the bull leg is over for now.Please bear with me :- 1-The whole bull leg was based on 2 major macro scenarios :- a)Russia Ukraine war ending (it failed miserably with even Russian allies calling the demands of Russia unacceptable.)But it was very clear when Putin missed the peace talks.Instead of peace talks Russia hit Ukraine with an extremely large drone attacks.(The biggest in history. b)US China Trade talks at Geneva With tariffs still standing at around 30%, on top of pre-existing duties, businesses remain cautious.It’s difficult to do business at 30% Over time, it will be a burden on China’s economic development.Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief Asia Pacific economist at Natixis, warned the threat hasn’t vanished, predicting the current tariff levels could still lead to 4 to 6 million job losses. Moreover China added Up To 74.9% Anti-Dumping Duties On US, EU, Japan, Taiwan POM Imports. With both these macros fading faster.This already over extended bull rally is coming to an end.
2-Now talking about INDIAN INDICES:- I see major resistance in Banknifty at previous rejections.(We have not made a higher high,This will be a perfect lower High along with the best bull trap of 2025. The major results of banking are already down:-Kotak Mahindra Bank-14% fall in profits yoy,RBL Bank-80% 80% fall in net profits yoy,IDFC PAT fell by 58%,SBI profits fell by 10%.(Many big bsnks HDFC and ICICI have shown profits too while Axis bank remains neutral).This whole research along with bearish harmonic patterns on major charts of indexes and individual stocks on both NSE/BSE and ADR's of NYSE points towards a major correction of about 10%.(SBI AND KOTAK BANK are major constituents of NIFTY50) Even major companies like TATA MOTORS,HCL,Tech Mahindra,Ultratech Cement,Trent,Bajaj Finance,Adani Enterprises,Eternal,SBI,Kotak bank and many more all constituents of NIFTY 50 have a decline in net revenue or profits in last yoy basis. SO THIS BULL RUN WHICH WAS COMPLETELY BASED ON OPTIMISM IS COMING TO AN END SOON. GOOD LUCK.
SPX hey good afternoon, Elon Musks favorite stock, gunna 1,000X HERES A HOT TIP BUY!! NVVE This company is so under rated, its getting new contracts, and its about to go Viral and explode Up huge numbers, coming here, Hidden Gem, Rated a very strong Buy and hold Tight by Stock experts ¡! Nuvve =BUY $2.00 this week UP FAST! Do not sell Buy! This is millions of dollars here we're talking about!
SPX Market Outlook: Week of May 19–23
BTCUSD and crypto—it’s wild how it often front-runs the market. 
XRPUSD in particular has been reacting before the S&P even opens. It’s like it knows what’s coming, and lately, it’s been closely tracking the S&P 500’s moves.
