US 500 - Rolling Future (Per 1.0) forum
🌀 Confidence Beats — But NDX Fades and Labour Cools
📆 Tuesday, July 29, 2025 | ⏰ 15:15 London / 10:15 NY
📦 Market Context: Sentiment lifted by confidence — but tech rejects and labour softens
📉 Data Recap:
• ✅ CB Consumer Confidence: 97.2 vs 95.8 est → surprise beat fuels retail tone
• ❌ JOLTs Job Openings: 7.437M vs 7.5M est → fewer jobs being posted
• ❌ Job Quits: 3.142M vs 3.21M est → worker confidence cooling
• ❌ House Price Index MoM: –0.2% vs –0.1% est → housing softens again
• ✅ Goods Trade Balance: –$85.99B vs –$98.4B est → better Q3 growth baseline
• ⚖️ Retail/Wholesale Inventories: Flat → no new demand impulse
🔍 Flow Notes:
•
SPX: Still above breakout, but flow is narrowing fast
•
NDX: Rejected hard at 23,500 → tech leadership fading again
• BTC: Stalled near 117K → macro not driving conviction
• Gold: Pulls back with DXY firming → safety bid evaporating
• USD: Quiet bid on trade strength and pre-FOMC positioning
🔍 Labour Signal Pairing:
• Fewer job openings + fewer quits = cautious economy
→ No panic — but no wage heat either → disinflation bias builds
→ Suggests Fed may stay patient unless Friday’s NFP surprises hot
🎯 Trade Ideas:
• 🟢 Long Bias: SPX — while above 6,375 and VIX stays below 15
• 🔴 Short Bias: NDX — rejection under 23,500 = clear weakness
• ⚖️ Neutral: BTC — no directional impulse into Fed risk
Best Wishes and Success to All
🛡️ Take Profits, Not Chances.
💰 Manage Risk to Accumulate.
🎯 React with Clarity, Not Hope.
🌊 Flow with Intelligence, Not Noise.
⚙️ Views are Personal & Educational, reflective of our Analysis and Research.
🎯 Summary posts only. Full context via DM.
⚠️ Educational content only. Not investment advice.
📉 Macro data reflects positioning as of July 29 (reported same day)
📆 Tuesday, July 29, 2025 | ⏰ 15:15 London / 10:15 NY
📦 Market Context: Sentiment lifted by confidence — but tech rejects and labour softens
📉 Data Recap:
• ✅ CB Consumer Confidence: 97.2 vs 95.8 est → surprise beat fuels retail tone
• ❌ JOLTs Job Openings: 7.437M vs 7.5M est → fewer jobs being posted
• ❌ Job Quits: 3.142M vs 3.21M est → worker confidence cooling
• ❌ House Price Index MoM: –0.2% vs –0.1% est → housing softens again
• ✅ Goods Trade Balance: –$85.99B vs –$98.4B est → better Q3 growth baseline
• ⚖️ Retail/Wholesale Inventories: Flat → no new demand impulse
🔍 Flow Notes:
•
•
• BTC: Stalled near 117K → macro not driving conviction
• Gold: Pulls back with DXY firming → safety bid evaporating
• USD: Quiet bid on trade strength and pre-FOMC positioning
🔍 Labour Signal Pairing:
• Fewer job openings + fewer quits = cautious economy
→ No panic — but no wage heat either → disinflation bias builds
→ Suggests Fed may stay patient unless Friday’s NFP surprises hot
🎯 Trade Ideas:
• 🟢 Long Bias: SPX — while above 6,375 and VIX stays below 15
• 🔴 Short Bias: NDX — rejection under 23,500 = clear weakness
• ⚖️ Neutral: BTC — no directional impulse into Fed risk
Best Wishes and Success to All
🛡️ Take Profits, Not Chances.
💰 Manage Risk to Accumulate.
🎯 React with Clarity, Not Hope.
🌊 Flow with Intelligence, Not Noise.
⚙️ Views are Personal & Educational, reflective of our Analysis and Research.
🎯 Summary posts only. Full context via DM.
⚠️ Educational content only. Not investment advice.
📉 Macro data reflects positioning as of July 29 (reported same day)

$bears suck !