US 500 - Rolling Future (Per 1.0)US 500 - Rolling Future (Per 1.0)US 500 - Rolling Future (Per 1.0)

US 500 - Rolling Future (Per 1.0)

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US 500 - Rolling Future (Per 1.0) forum



🌀 Confidence Beats — But NDX Fades and Labour Cools
📆 Tuesday, July 29, 2025 | ⏰ 15:15 London / 10:15 NY
📦 Market Context: Sentiment lifted by confidence — but tech rejects and labour softens

📉 Data Recap:
• ✅ CB Consumer Confidence: 97.2 vs 95.8 est → surprise beat fuels retail tone
• ❌ JOLTs Job Openings: 7.437M vs 7.5M est → fewer jobs being posted
• ❌ Job Quits: 3.142M vs 3.21M est → worker confidence cooling
• ❌ House Price Index MoM: –0.2% vs –0.1% est → housing softens again
• ✅ Goods Trade Balance: –$85.99B vs –$98.4B est → better Q3 growth baseline
• ⚖️ Retail/Wholesale Inventories: Flat → no new demand impulse

🔍 Flow Notes:
SPX: Still above breakout, but flow is narrowing fast
NDX: Rejected hard at 23,500 → tech leadership fading again
• BTC: Stalled near 117K → macro not driving conviction
• Gold: Pulls back with DXY firming → safety bid evaporating
• USD: Quiet bid on trade strength and pre-FOMC positioning

🔍 Labour Signal Pairing:
• Fewer job openings + fewer quits = cautious economy
→ No panic — but no wage heat either → disinflation bias builds
→ Suggests Fed may stay patient unless Friday’s NFP surprises hot

🎯 Trade Ideas:
• 🟢 Long Bias: SPX — while above 6,375 and VIX stays below 15
• 🔴 Short Bias: NDX — rejection under 23,500 = clear weakness
• ⚖️ Neutral: BTC — no directional impulse into Fed risk

Best Wishes and Success to All
🛡️ Take Profits, Not Chances.
💰 Manage Risk to Accumulate.
🎯 React with Clarity, Not Hope.
🌊 Flow with Intelligence, Not Noise.

⚙️ Views are Personal & Educational, reflective of our Analysis and Research.
🎯 Summary posts only. Full context via DM.
⚠️ Educational content only. Not investment advice.
📉 Macro data reflects positioning as of July 29 (reported same day)
Snapshot

$bears suck !

SPX The bubble will burst. The question is when? ;)



SP500 One of the few that's actually moving and responding 🤦🏻‍♂️ got a huge buy riding on this...let's go