oil with some comparisons to the past and with gold currently.comparing the "old" pattern to oil with highly profitable swings to the way it is swinging ( or not swinging ) now. Then I briefly compared price action of oil to gold.
Energy Commodities
oil scaling techniqueScaling techniques can have a highly beneficial effect you trading results...and "Bale you out" of costly market corrections if you have a working understanding of market dynamics...and you recognize that adding positions also increases your risk exposure...and should be factored in accordingly. Here is an example.
Dollar strength (safe haven) now killing bitcoin NOT ADVICE DYORUsing bitcoin MACD (log scale) minus histogram
Bitcoin going down; USOIL going down; SPX going down. Deja Vu ?Bitcoin going down; USOIL going down (USOIL MACD line, Signal line, Histogram, all negative);SPX going down. Deja Vu? NOT ADVICE. DYOR
OBSERVING CRUDE OIL IN A 1 MINUTE PERSPECTIVE (Visual Only)Someone brought this to my attention in oil chat and decided to have a look myself and you really do get to see so many tradeable scalping opportunities.
Never bothered to look at oil this way before, but this is very insightful to me, thought I ought to share.
If you are a pattern trader, then you really ought to start analyzing market this way in my opinion.
Highlight for this idea goes to @mikkel-j ... Now get pattern spotting guys.
BELOW IS A TEST CHART IN 1 MIN TO FOLLOW AND SEE IF PATTERN PLAYS OUT.
Three Percent Trades: Educational PostThis is an example of how we calculate range movements on a breakout. It comes down to simple math to calculate a measured move.
We simply take the high and subtract it from the low of the range. Then you add the high plus the difference to get your measured move.
If the trade moves in your favor you will want to add to your winners as it trends higher. You should add to your position on future breakouts of consolidation, and on any sign of weakness we sell half our shares to lock in profits and play with house money.
Following this will help protect your hard earned capital and allow you to let your winners run.
EW Analysis: OIL + EURUSD + BTCUSD In Positive Correlation?!Hello traders!
Today we will talk about correlations in different markets!
Correlations are very important to recognize the direction. There are positive and negative correlations, but what we currently see in the FX market (EURUSD), Commodity market (Crude oil) and Cryptocurrency market (BTCUSD) is that they are in tight positive correlation! So, if we respect what market is doing and considering Elliott Wave bullish setups, then we can expect a bullish continuation for the next few weeks soon!
As you can see, Crude oil has clear five waves up and three waves of correction back to very important 50%-61,8% Fibonacci retracement, which means that it's already formed a bullish setup and it may easily continue higher in the upcoming sessions!
EURUSD is still forming the final wave (c) of a correction that can retest 50%-61,8% Fibonacci retracement and 1.1000 support level at the beginning of the next week, from where we can expect to follow Crude oil within an uptrend!
And looking at BTCUSD, just like EURUSD, it can be ready for a decline into wave (c) to a complete a three-wave corrective setback, where 50%-61,% Fibonacci retracement and 10000 level can be tested before an uptrend resumes together with Crude oil and EURUSD.
That being said, there are no tick by tick correlations, but from our experience, they always somehow get caught in the end.
However, there's nothing confirmed yet, but if Crude oil stays above wave (c), and if in the meantime EURUSD and BTCUSD bounced from projected support levels in an impulsive manner, then we can easily confirm a bullish continuation!
Be humble and trade smart!!
Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
A Renko Strategy for Trading - Part 9This is intended more as educational material on a strategy for using renko charts. To begin with, I'll be using USOil in the examples but will include other markets as I continue through the series. The material is not intended to prescribe or recommend actual trades as the decision to place trades is the responsibility of each individual who trades as they assume all risks for their own positions and accounts.
Chart setup :
(Part 1)
Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) 12 black line
Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) 20 red line
Parabolic SAR (PSAR) 0.09/0.09/.23 blue circles
Simple Moving Average (SA) 20 blue line
(Part 2)
Stochastics 5, 3, 3 with boundaries 80/20 dark blue/light blue
Stochastics 50, 3, 3 with boundaries 55/45 red
Overlay these two on one indicator. Refer to 'Part 2' as to how to do this
(Part 3)
True Strength Indicator (TSI) 14/4/4 dark blue/ red
Directional Movement Indicator DMI 14/14 ADX-dark green, +DI-dark blue, -DI-red
Renko Chart Settings
Crude Oil (TVC:USOil): renko/traditional/blksize .05/.10/.25
Natural Gas (ngas): renko/traditional/blksize .005/.010/.025
Soybeans/Wheat/Corn (soybnusd/wheatusd/cornusd): can use the ngas setup
S&P 500 (spx500usd): renko/traditional/blksize 2.5/5.0/12.5
Euros (EURUSD): renko/traditional/blksize .0005/.0010/.0025
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE A major mistake traders make is to assume that in order to be profitable you need to use so many tools and it's in fact the opposite.
Let's start off with basic support resistance. We know the market moves up, down and side ways. But it never moves straight up or down. As it moves up or down it will meet levels of support and resistance. It's important you understand where these levels are on which ever pairs you trade.
SUPPORT - you will meet points of support mainly in a downtrend. As pointed out above, you can see there are more points of support than resistance. So remember support will appear below price, below the candlesticks. see it as the floor of the chart.
RESISTANCE - You will meet points of resistance mainly in an uptrend, support is the 'roof' it will appear above price. Price meets head on with resistance levels.
Previous support/resistance turning into future resistance/support - Previous support can turn into future resistance, this is where price will break through this support in a downtrend and the come back and retest this level ( as shown in the chart above) . This previous support is now resistance. This also applies the other way around.
Support and resistance levels are points within the market where price will pivot. There are also levels in the market where price will gain momentum before continuing a move.
You always want to plot these levels on the higher time frames as the levels on the higher time frames will hold more significance. i.e. support on the daily time frame will hold a lot significance than support on the 1hr time frame.
Hit that follow button for more stuff to come..
A Renko Strategy for Trading - Part 8This is intended more as educational material on a strategy for using renko charts. To begin with, I'll be using USOil in the examples but will include other markets as I continue through the series. The material is not intended to prescribe or recommend actual trades as the decision to place trades is the responsibility of each individual who trades as they assume all risks for their own positions and accounts.
www.investopedia.com
Chart setup :
(Part 1)
Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) 12 black line
Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) 20 red line
Parabolic SAR (PSAR) 0.09/0.09/.23 blue circles
Simple Moving Average (SA) 20 blue line
(Part 2)
Stochastics 5, 3, 3 with boundaries 80/20 dark blue/light blue
Stochastics 50, 3, 3 with boundaries 55/45 red
Overlay these two on one indicator. Refer to 'Part 2' as to how to do this
(Part 3)
True Strength Indicator (TSI) 14/4/4 dark blue/ red
Directional Movement Indicator DMI 14/14 ADX-dark green, +DI-dark blue, -DI-red
Renko Chart Settings
Crude Oil (TVC:USOil): renko/traditional/blksize .05/.10/.25
Natural Gas (ngas): renko/traditional/blksize .005/.010/.025
Soybeans/Wheat/Corn (soybnusd/wheatusd/cornusd): can use the ngas setup
S&P 500 (spx500usd): renko/traditional/blksize 2.5/5.0/12.5
Euros (EURUSD): renko/traditional/blksize .0005/.0010/.0025
CRUDE OIL OBSERVATION OVERVIEWPlease be aware mostly visual demonstration, any verbal descriptions comes at the end when drawing harmonics.
A Renko Strategy for Trading - Part 7 Refactor/RefinementThis is intended more as educational material on a strategy for using renko charts. To begin with, I'll be using USOil in the examples but will include other markets as I continue through the series. The material is not intended to prescribe or recommend actual trades as the decision to place trades is the responsibility of each individual who trades as they assume all risks for their own positions and accounts.
(Part 1)
Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) 12 black line
Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) 20 red line
Parabolic SAR (PSAR) 0.09/0.09/.23 blue circles
Simple Moving Average (SA) 20 blue line
(Part 2)
Stochastics 5, 3, 3 with boundaries 80/20 dark blue/light blue
Stochastics 50, 3, 3 with boundaries 55/45 red
Overlay these two on one indicator. Refer to 'Part 2' as to how to do this
(Part 3)
True Strength Indicator (TSI) 14/4/4 dark blue/ red
Directional Movement Indicator DMI 14/14 ADX-dark green, +DI-dark blue, -DI-red
A Renko Strategy for Trading - Part 5This is intended more as educational material on a strategy for using renko charts. To begin with, I'll be using USOil in the examples but will include other markets as I continue through the series. The material is not intended to prescribe or recommend actual trades as the decision to place trades is the responsibility of each individual who trades as they assume all risks for their own positions and accounts.
Chart setup:
(Part 1)
Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) 12 black line
Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) 20 red line
Parabolic SAR (PSAR) 0.09/0.09/.23 blue circles
Simple Moving Average (SA) 20 blue line
(Part 2)
Stochastics 5, 3, 3 with boundaries 80/20 dark blue/light blue
Stochastics 50, 3, 3 with boundaries 55/45 red
Overlay these two on one indicator. Refer to 'Part 2' as to how to do this
(Part 3)
True Strength Indicator (TSI) 14/4/4 dark blue/ red
Directional Movement Indicator DMI 14/14 ADX-dark green, +DI-dark blue, -DI-red
A Renko Strategy for Trading - Part 1This is intended more as educational material on a strategy for using renko charts. To begin with, I'll be using USOil in the examples but will include other markets as I continue through the series. The material is not intended to prescribe or recommend actual trades as the decision to place trades is the responsibility of each individual who trades as they assume all risks for their own positions and accounts.
Master the Simple Inside Bar Pattern
hey guys,
on WTI we have a perfect example of Inside Bar candlestick pattern on a daily chart.
An inside bar is a series of bars or sometimes just one bar that is contained within the range of the preceding bar (mother bar).
The first rule that we should take into account is that inside bars must have a higher low and lower high than the mother bar.
The second rule is that we trade this pattern only after bearish or bullish breakout of a mother bar trading range.
The logic behind inside bar is simple. It indicates a time of indecision and market consolidation. Inside bars typically occur as a market consolidates after making a large directional move (bearish on WTI), you also can see this pattern at key decision points like major support or resistance levels.
For WTI our plan is to wait until a violation of a trading range.
Remember that the candle MUST close below or above the range before we take any action!
US Oil: A big challengeUS Oil presents some serious challenges for those looking to short this market.
This analysis is time frame dependent. Which way you might want to go depends entirely on trends in respective time frames.
DAILY PICTURE
1. On the daily time frame this is very much a bull market. We can see that in the ATR (amber trendline) and the green Guppy investor zone.
2. On the daily price has made a temporary retreat to near ATR support, in a parabolic limb of the curve.
3. If anything this is usually a place to go long (on this time frame).
4H - FOUR HOURLY PICTURE
1. There is an early trend switch for the south.
2. This is seen on the ATR and SQM (Squeeze momentum).
3. But it isn't as yet a Grade A or Grade B switch.
DECISION-MAKING (Speculative issues)
1. Finding appropriate entry point on a chosen time frame.
2. For a limited hit going long (north) on the 4H, taking a reasonable stop loss and taking only about a 26 or 38.2 Fib retracement of the most recent daily candle.
3. For a limited hit going short (south) on the 4H, a larger stop-loss is required.
4. Possibly going long on the daily and hold out.
As usual before starting any trade on any time frame common things need to be decided:
1. Time frame one will stick to (1D, 4H or something else).
2. Entry position.
3. Stop-loss.
4. Exit position.
Stop-losses on 4H and less need to cater for short spikes in price. So simply saying 2.5 times ATR may not be enough.
Based on experience only of US Oil, I can expect a recoil up on the 4H but of course, I can't predict how much. As mentioned above I can expect at least a 26% Fib on the length of the last daily candle. Expectation is not prediction.
Declaration : This post is for educational purposes only. Nothing here is intended as advice. Your losses are your own should you still construe this as advice, act on it, and lose money.
MY LEADING INDICATORS IN USE!Made this for someone in the chatbox, but thought newbies or so may find it helpful to try out themselves too, so bon apetite all.
P.S. if i ignore any questions after today then it is because today is my last day off work. After this, it is back to being a slave to the system lol.
