Dealing with impatience6.1.20 Dealing with Impulse/impatience; gold silver oil ES Dow NewYork Russel 2-618 reversal patterns ( but with bullish price action )
Energy Commodities
Just some entries. Updates to comehave yet to go over gold stocks so i will just post it as its own idea later
DXY OILDXY OIL ( Part 1 ) I don't think it is a curse if you know more about the market, however, it adds more variables... with the potential of adding more stress. I would like to talk about that here. Unfortunately, since I don't always get directly to the point, there will need to be a Part 2.
Zinc Mcx Short at 154.5 with SL 157.3We are doing Analysis of ZINC MCX on 1 Hour Timeframe.
The projected target from the breakout is usually the vertical distance from the high to the bottom .
Note: This is only for Educational Purpose this is not an Investment advice.
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Thankyou
Ankur Verma
Twitter : Ankurverma3838
Update - My post April 2, 2020, "Bitcoin & Big Oil" Update - My post April 2, 2020, "Bitcoin & Big Oil" . First point of interest - Using MACD of USOIL (WTI) point before precipitous decline. See what happened when bitcoin closed month end above $365 NOV 2015 and thereafter. Notice in each case c.55% drop before rise. Bitcoin has yet to close out month above $9084.7. Second point of interest - Monthly Dollar Index if close below 98.82 (Mid point of volatility Mar 2020) see what happened to SPX when closed below 95.48 (Mid point of volatility Aug 2015) March 2016. NOT ADVICE. DYOR.
Brent Crude updated map - 5 of 5 upThis structure looks better.
The wave 4 finally I revealed the key for it as it unfolded with wave C as an ending diagonal.
WTI updated map - could be ending diagonal 5 of (C)The wave 4 that I was looking to unfold before could be over long ago as simple flat.
The further seesaw structure that already distracted so many traders from the crude could be an ending diagonal wave 5 of (5) of ((C)).
After it gets finished we could see a drop in 3 waves retracement.
Still think USO is a great way to invest in Oil?An Interactive Broker trader with a $77,000 account thought he would outsmart every institution and every big Oil trader, the result? A $9 million loss.
Well done.
IB normally doesn't take beginners, you need 2 years experience to trade FX with them (haven't checked futures so I don't know what the rule is for those), and the min account size is 10,000.
This day trader (go figure) thought he was smarter than every one, and he went all in, he bet the farm. This alone is stupid, but he went all in without doing his research!
Probably a "technical analyst". Weird, I thought magical esoteric TA told you everything you need to know, that everything was built in the chart and info not in the chart was useless noise. Didn't his magical TA tools tell him it would go negative? Well actually if he looked at the ATR / implied volatility he would have seen....
Even I, that has negative balance protection and guaranteed stops, went on the CME site to check announcements.
They don't exactly talk about negative prices nor clearly about limit up limit down, but here, with Oil massive volatility, they did confirm that yes indeed they were prepared for negative prices.
Thomas Peterffy (the hungarian market billionaire that is not George Soros) said 5 days wasn't enough for IB to update their platform and that's obviously true.
Now maybe they should have warned people with messages on the interface, e-mails, maybe set some hard limit to what their clients can do.
Maybe they should have had code ready at all time in case this happens. Maybe they share the fault, maybe not.
But anyway, being a customer friendly broker, they absorbed losses over 100 million.
Meanwhile I did my research, I shorted June contract and made money, and I'm fighting with my shady broker to withdraw some of my gains...
They have been condemned by the french regulators years ago for shady business practices go figure, but every retail broker has!
And the vast majority of their clients are retail. I'm waiting and waiting and waiting... I have resisted insulting them or calling the regulator for now.
The only other broker to give me a hard time was Kraken. They mention anti laundering laws and more, and I understand, but why be so unclear, and ask for documents 5 times rather than all at once, and why ask for the same documents several time, and why be so difficult, only when someone made money?
Short Bitcoin on Kraken which was clearly very pro bull, short Oil on *** which had a massive number of retail short sellers (they were on the June contract thought), and then it's an issue. Never had a single problem buying Bitcoin and sending it to a wallet, never a problem when losing money, extreme ease to deposit and start paying commissions, without any warning "getting it out will be very hard". "It's quick instant easy" ye sure, no it's not.
The fund running USO clearly said it was a tool for short term bets. It's not made for massive hoardes of dumb money to buy and hold.
They have spread over several months to be more nimble, ye looks like its working great!
I heard reverse splits were a good sign, that it was smart to invest in a stock after it made a reverse split.
Once again, retail that never in their lives made money consistently, thought they knew better than every one else, and that they would get rich quick.
Once again, I warned people with what little visibility I had.
Once again I was right and retail is getting wiped out.
Bagholders are going to argue, they are going to say "just wait", and any spike up will be their celebration and "told you so" "this is it".
Same old story. They'll keep arguing, they'll keep bagholding, they'll keep losing.
Dumb money at its finest: never understand when you lost. You can never tell them "told you so" because in their mind it's always just a matter of time.
When it gets delisted they'll have no choice but to understand they lost, and still then they'll go full lawsuit and dream of getting their money back.
How long for this? 5 years? 10 years? Apple Sapphire screen bagholders as I posted recently have gotten like 4% of their money back on average.
An average smart (average of the ones in the top) investor or speculator in 10 years will be up 15% compounded, so +300% (turn the total into 400%), and dumb bagholders that wanted to get rich quick "15% a year looool that's pathetic" will be spending their time in courts and dreaming of getting 4% back (turn the total into 4%).
Delusion at its finest. There is no free lunch...
If Oil was priced at $0.01 there was a very good reason for it.
Oil traders weren't just selling at this price because "emotions" "rsi very oversold".
It's so risible that some complete noobs that don't understand anything they are doing thought they are just so much smarter than the market, and that whales were just "being emotional" and selling a barrel of Oil at $5, $3, etc just because they were "scaaaaared".
Homer Simpson really thought "Aha! Whales are selling Oil at $1 a barrel but they are scared. I, Homer J Simpson, know something they don't! Oil is worth more. I am a visionary!"
It's like when Homer went hunting for a Turkey, he just put a nice plate down with rice and other food in, then shouted "Come on Turkey come join your friends" and pointed the gun towards the plate with a big smile on his face, fully convinced a Turkey would jump in his plate.
I thought the Simpsons were ridiculous and overly exagerated when I was a kid. How wrong I was.
My broker lets me set an order to short USO. Oh my, I sure know what I'm going to do! 2 possibilities actually.
The Difference Between Stupidity and Genius Is That Genius Has Its Limits.
CRUDE OIL (WTI) STRUCTURE ANALYSIS
hey guys,
crude keeps growing steadily!
the price has easily gone through 18.5 - 20.5 resistance and now it turned to support.
our next key daily resistance is 28.6 - 30.6 zone.
look for a reversal formation within this area to short.
in case of a further bullish continuation, the second resistance will be 34.0 - 36.0 area.
if this zone will be reached, the previously mentioned resistance will turn to support as well.
the safest trading is always done on key levels.
so pay attention to the price action when any of the key zones are reached.
good luck!
oil4.28.20 This is the third video this morning on oil. This is about presses... which are higher tops and bottoms with a minimum of three bars. Because it set up correctly, it was easier to show you the dynamics. I talked about potential scalping techniques that might help you realize more profit potential that might not otherwise occur to you. There is always a risk which is inherent to scalping because of risk: reward issues. Still, it is worth listening to because it is not an intuitive way to trade in real time for many traders who are one-sided thinkers: they think the market is either going up, or does going down when it's not nearly that simple. The other two videos today are much more important regarding oil. In this video I showed my perspective on how presses often include the body of the previous bar, when you listen to the video you'll understand my reference. But what I did not say is that if there is another bar pressing higher tomorrow, the market may retest a good portion of today's bar, and if you are a one-sided thinker, this is not going to be a comfortable experience. My recommendation is to look at and observe it, and see if it's something you can use that is compatible with your requirements as a trader, but don't trade it until you get a feel for this because it might not work for you, and the fact is it doesn't work all the time anyway, and it requires some discretionary real-time analysis; and most importantly...what you have done effects what you are able to do, and what this means is if you're holding a contract at a higher price and your unrealized position in this market reflects that you're already down $1500, you may not want to add a contract because you think the markets going higher, but if it doesn't you are now losing on two contracts. Just watch the relationship and don't trade until you get familiarity and you're comfortable with this type of analysis.
S&P How spot market recovery & what markets to buy & sellZones created using crossovers of Monthly 20 MA on VIX close & 20 MA of same. Like end of crash in 02 & 09 some bulls and bears think this crash will only be confirmed over when TNX closes month above 1.34. See what happened to OIL, GOLD, and DOLLAR last time (green verticals). White verticals denote VIX peak (no guarantee reached that yet). Caveat small sample size & my arbitrary choice of two key TNX levels which just appeared to make this analysis work to perfection on two previous occassions. NOT ADVICE. DYOR.
Bitcoin monthly price chart compare correation with oil and DJIBITSTAMP:BTCUSD
Bitcoin has never been correlated to nothing
BTCUSD, 1M, price chart
CC, USOIL, 20
CC, UKOIL, 20
CC, DJI, 20
When CC reaches 1, there is a perfect correlation.
When CC reaches -1, there is a perfect negative correlation.
When CC = 0, there is no correlation at all.
Bitcoin has never been correlated perfectly, or perfectly negative with crude oil, bren oil nor Dow Jones.
Bitcoin is doing is own path, despite the dreams of the hodlers, mooners and big brown bears.
This tutorial is dedicated to Tradingview "experts".
Beginner TF Matching SystemA couple of people are trying this system I created, both have no previous knowledge of trading. This method is designed for people who are new to trading. This is system is suitable for strocks, forex, crypto, futures etc.They are also using it on an options demo account. Lets see how they go.
HOW TO TRADE MARKET STRUCTURE HOW TO TRADE MARKET STRUCTURE
1) WE CAN SEE THAT USDCAD HAS BEEN IN AN UPTREND MAKING HIGHER HIGHS & HIGH LOWS. THIS IS DISPLAYED WITH THE A-B-C-D MOVEMENTS
2) AT 'C' WE REACHED A KEY RESISTANCE ZONE AT 1.42500 RESULTING IN THE NEXT PHASE OF THE UPTREND TO CREATE A NEW HIGHER LOW AT D
3) AT 'D' USDCAD BEGINS THE NEXT PHASE OF OVERALL UPTREND AND ATTEMPTS TO MAKE A NEW HIGH. HOWEVER THIS UPWARD MOVE FAILS AS WE FAIL TO BREAK ABOVE 'C' & INSTEAD END WITH THE MOVE TO 'E', SIGNALLING A POTENTIAL END TO THE UPTREND
4) THE NEXT MOVE FROM 'E-F' CREATES A NEW SUPPORT LEVEL AT OUR PREVIOUS LOWER HIGH 'D' (1.41142) ZONE
5) THE NEXT MOVE FROM F-G IS AN ATTEMPT FROM BUYERS AT THE SUPPORT LEVEL CREATED FROM E-F (1.41142) TO TRY AND CONTINUE THE UPTREND HOWEVER 'G' NOW CREATES A LOWER HIGH
6) FROM G-H WE CAN SEE PRICE IS MAKING A THIRD TEST OF THE SUPPORT LEVEL AT (1.41142). A FAILURE OF THE SUPPORT LEVEL HOLDING GIVES US A GOOD ENTRY POINT TO ENTER A SELL POSITION WITH OUR PROFIT TARGET OF 105 POINTS AT 'H' (1.40000)
USOIL if wedge break 12.21 is first targetUSOIL if wedge break 12.21 is first target and if crude turns wildly bearish like Monday don't be surprised if it goes 5 to 6 dollars within a week for another test of 5 dollars.. Hoping if it breaks wedge downfall stops between 12 to 13...Always have 2 %of stop loss since USOil is so volatile...
