SP500 / ES / SPY - Markets are ready to MELT-UPThis video discusses how the market has been setup for a high probability of a melt-up. In a melt-up the market can jump 15-30% in the matter of weeks. Weeks ago I began positioning my trades for a melt-up scenario which pays off in days like today, but I think this thing could explode much higher. Today's price action sets us up for an opportunity to get long with the overall market structure.
**Market Structure**
-The market has been/is setting up for a melt-up or blow-off top
-An inside bar/fake-out bullish engulfing combo pattern has formed
-Continuous higher lows/higher highs
-Very bullish price action from the current pullback
-Pullback was fairly shallow before huge buying occurred showing the market strength
**Trading Ideas**
-Due to the size of the bar and the shallowness of the pullback, this trade is more of a candidate for pullback entry
-Buy on any weakness that causes a retracement of the bullish engulfing.
-The only overhead resistance is the 2880 all time highs, and the next will be the psychological barrier of 3000
**Trading Tips**
-I will want to be buying on any weakness back to 2800
-The bullish engulfing candle has formed off of key support, in an uptrend, which keeps us on the right side of the market
ES
NQ / NASDAQ / SP500 - Preparing for bullish buy signalsThe QQQ have been on a tear for about a week now. If you we're watching my analysis from 3-4 weeks ago you were aware of the inside bar setup that I was waiting for a bullish breakout of. Although we had a false break down on 5/23, price immediately recovered and the bullish breakout that I had been predicting did ensue. The price action on 5/23 produce a very bullish Inside-Bar/False Break pattern as well as a bullish engulfing bar, all above a critical support level. This generated a number of overlapping buy signals that many of you, including myself ended up going long on. I cashed out as price approached upper resistance and now we can see price has begun to pull back a bit. I will be watching for price to fall back to the support zone and then new bullish buy candlestick patterns to form such as a bullish pin bar, bullish engulfing bar or inside-bar. As long as price remains above 7,000 I am going to be strongly bullish and be watching for any signals to get long with the trend.
US Markets are throwing out some very bullish signalsWhile I am personally trading the SPY due to it's great stock and options liquidity there have been a number of great bullish signals being through in multiple index and futures markets. Today I focus on the NASDAQ 100 futures and point out a nice inside bar/2 bar reversal pattern that as already broken out to the upside as well as an inside bar/ false break pattern that is currently forming in the daily. I will be watching where the markets are going into the close but a pinbar does end up forming on the /YM futures I believe that could set us up for our next bullish move. As always with price action, price must break out of the pattern before it is confirmed. In the case of the inside bar/ false break pattern, if we do end the day with that pattern then a breakout of the inside bar pattern would still need to occur for this new signal to be trad-able. Those who jump in early to make a few extra bucks are doing so at the risk of a far less probably trade. When the patterns do break out the probably of success goes way up.
SPY - Bullish bias still intactThe markets have taken a bit of a breather over the last week or so. This type of price consolidation is common after a strong move and can provide good opportunities to get into the market for the next leg. In this case we have price still consolidating but starting to hug the upper range of the consolidation area. A potential entry is on the breakout of the range or if you are already long simply waiting for the pattern to breakout and the next leg up to begin.
ES - Bullish bias still intact, waiting for upside breakoutLast week we saw an inside bar pattern form on the ES. There was a false break out of this inside pattern. Price pulled back in and continued to consolidate. Going into the Monday morning trading session it looks like we will have a gap up and may finally see that upside breakout to start the next leg up.
ES - Bullish price action in the hourly'sPrice continues to consolidate on the daily chart so I take a look at any price action in the hourly charts. I see a potentially bullish hammer setup on the hourly chart off of a key price level. If the candle closes as a hammer and breaks above we may see that next strong bullish move up.