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Psychology

EURJPY psychology can we accept that 1% loss ? so this breakdown shows 2 outcomes and what is possible in both situation and your trading psychology behind both sets up ? can you accept this 1% loss knowing that this trade shows and lines up with the higher time frames ? and seeing how we got there with some strong momentum would this put you of this trade ? biggest issue behind trading falls from your emotions we wouldn't take this trade if we haven't risk correctly or we haven't respected what the markets give us or we revenge trade after taking loss after loss accept any outcome and train your mind to cut your looses and ride your winners happy trading :)
Education
by LucasMatthew
GBPAUD trading corrections and understanding the middle sectionhi guys so a quick lesson on trading corrections if we can confirm a middle section within a pattern this has a higher probability on what price will do next we then filter on the lower time frames for a tighter entry we only trade in probability and we accept any outcome with any trade we place and having the right psychology we make you a better trading in the long run :) hope you all have a great new year guys and girls stay safe :)
Education
by LucasMatthew
The Secrets to Forex & Why You're the Wrong Type of Loser (pt.1)This is a 'many-part' educational series to help turn smooth brains into folded brains. The series reveals the true power of the social and psychological factors shaping markets. This is abstracted from 7,000 hours of research in markets and finance and is a synthesized thesis between my research, John Boyd's work on strategy and adaptability, and David Bohm's theories on emergent behavior. The endstate for the reader will be vastly improved risk management, and novel methods for reducing uncertainty. Part 1: Why 85%+ of Retail Traders are the Wrong Type of Loser The true holy grail of markets.. the risk-free rate of return asset, doesn't exist (even perpetuity coupons aren't risk-free). Risk or uncertainty permeates all aspects of our reality. Managing risk is a fundamental component of all business, law, politics, military affairs, sports, etc. It is essential to any form of competition (which markets are). Virtually every element of any strategy employed anywhere involves risk management. It's more than just money... its everything; your relationships, your happiness, your experiences. Your ability to manage risk and uncertainty will positively correlate to your future quality of life. Why? Because we can't see the future, but we live into the future. Thus, no matter your wealth or political power, uncertainty is still your master. Fear of uncertainty drives your psychology, the psychology of other individuals, organizations, and even nations. And what these entities do, affect you. Even at subconscious levels. Those that fight uncertainty, do so at varying levels of competence. In the world of derivatives, and for our interests its sub-class: forex, speculation against uncertainty shapes most of the price discovery experience visualized on your favorite candlebar chart. What happens on your chart on higher timeframes is the result of speculation; even those with carry trade positions are still speculating about rates and central bank decisions. The only people who aren't speculating are insider trading, which is illegal. It's illegal to not speculate... Make no mistake, in the world of speculation, those that fight the best battles, are the ones who fear uncertainty the most and go to the greatest lengths to conquer it. But we already determined that you can't conquer it, you can't see the future. So what does a 'best battle' or 'meeting halfway' even look like in trading? What do you call a loser that doesn't always lose? Let me stop for a second. You're probably thinking: 'this is obvious, no one wants to lose money, everyone is afraid of what they don't know, the future is unknowable, etc' 'How does this help me make money?' First, you need to understand what you are in this game called Markets. In this oddly balanced game, those with the most to lose often have the biggest say. And vice versa. You are the vice versa, the retail trader. Retail traders comprise 4 categories that often overlap, ie: people who usually do not have a professional background in investing/trading, or a professionally relevant education, or professional connections as a major client or data access, or a high networth. Your competitors are the opposite (they are all those things and more): the winners, the market makers, the whales, the money printers, the ones with the biggest say, the old money, the 'smart' money, whatever cringy title you want to give them. Commercials/institutions/fund managers/portfolio managers/pension managers/etc.. These guys are speculating about the future, just like you. But their speculation is what shapes price discovery and market movement, YOURS DOES NOT. This means that whatever you think the market does or should be, DOES NOT MATTER. Your fibonacci, does not matter. Your head and shoulders shampoo/pattern, does not matter. Your sup/res lines, do not matter. Your moon cycles, do not matter. Your RSI/MACD cross, does not matter. The only thing that matters, is what these commercials/institutions think. That's it. If they think that this head and shoulder on the 4h EURUSD matters, then it matters. If they think the moon cycle this month matters, then it matters. If they think communism is good for business, then it matters... etc. It's exactly as irrational as you might think. Now, with their fiduciary responsibilities, they do have to justify their picks. So moon rune interpretation is usually off the table. But guess what. These guys, despite their immense wealth, their research teams stocked with specialists with PhDs, and all the instant access to prime data in the world.. they still lose. They lose all the time, and they lose big. Eye wateringly big. The vast majority are barely winning 60% of the time, if even that... That's why many are offloading into 'less competitive' money-making opportunities; like underwriting, checking accounts, or alternative investments. Competition itself is too much of a risk for their uncertainty appetite. You have to applaud their level of greed. But to stay on target. Whether your technical system is profitable or not is often a factor of the fitness of your indicators with whatever strategy the commercial is using to execute entry implementation (or combination of models or commercial strategies). And when a few of their models/strategies are losing, it makes it even harder to win at this game (or in those instances, your system might win, whilst you rejoice at the amazing ability of your moon cycles to predict the future). But let's back this up, did some of you notice something off? 60%~ ... That's actually not bad. A trader who's experienced at losing (and yet making a profit in the long run) would kill for an average position win rate like that. Instead of thinking, "how do I avoid losers entirely" Stop wasting whatever brainpower you have. Start thinking, "how do I minimize my losers?" The losing positions are always going to happen, no matter your system. All edges fade, and even a mythical system that won 90% of the time will weaken over months or years. But if you learn to master the art of 'losing,' the overall win rate of your positions can AFFORD to be low. In many cases, it could even be less than 50%, and you could still make a living as a trader/investor. The best and brightest, the commercials and institutions, are barely going 60%. What makes you think you can do better? Does it mean all hope is lost? Not even close. It simply means that you need to focus less on your directional/positional bias strategy (the winrate), and more on your risk management strategy. You have to become the right type of retail trading loser, the 15%~ or so that retail brokers survey as profitable. These guys are losing 40%, 50%, 60%, even 70% of the time, and some of the them are still making big money. It's counter-intuitive but they are the guys winning at losing, and turning that into a living. Your ability to survive losers.. to adapt to uncertainty , is the first secret and the most important step into the weird world of profitable derivative trading. Okay, so you might be thinking: "Again, obvious. Isn't that just 2%? Isn't that just low margin? Only trade Majors? 100 pip SL?" If those were the first things you thought, then we still have a very long way to go. Fortunately, this is just the introduction. See you next week for part 2: 'time as the dominant parameter, fair value, and the 'center of gravity.
Education
by CountofCoins
Trading MindsetWELCOME TO WORLD OF TRADING Hi everyone, what I am about to talk right now is concerned with trading psychology. Everything that I am about to say right now is also a crucial aspect of my psychology and mindset that is fueling me to write this for you guys. Hence, we can deduce one thing from this. Psychology is the most important factor in deciding your future as trader. I will be honest upfront with you guys. So you’ve been introduced to the world of trading by your friend, family or anyone that doesn’t matter, so you’ve been told how the guy next door is making thousands of dollars with just few hours of work while you out there hustling yourself to exhaustion and making just about to survive your month doesn’t seen fair right? And exactly this guy has results to show for it to make you believe how if he can do it anyone can. Or you’ve seen couple of stories, Instagram post, Facebook post promising exponential gains in a few hours. With that said I want to address 2 main problems associated with trading which I believe are significantly important to understand before you step out there or if you’re already out there and struggling. 1) Holy grail in trading (a way or a method that will promise you returns on daily basis) Holy grail in trading what is it and does it exist? To answer this question, I want you to ask yourself a question first: why you are trading and what do u want to achieve from it Now that you’ve asked yourself that kindly note if the answer to these questions is (firstly: I want to accumulate wealth as soon as possible and drive a luxurious car next month. Secondly: I only want to find a way in trading that works 100% and gives me return on my investment daily) If these are you believes I am afraid to say you have work to do on yourself not on your system of approach of trading. Financial markets are a world of chaos there are millions of possibilities out there every day (imagine you just focus on 1 possibility consistently every day, where will that take you in the next coming years think about it) There are successful traders out there, trading and making living out it (the so-called narrative only 5% of people can make money in the markets) where’s the difference? The difference lies not on support was breached, trend line was broken or respected but on their mentality and mind set these people very well understand how market moves and work but be cautious they will never follow the market: no one in world has the intellect and memory to remember each and every tick movement of the market these people are focused on themselves and their performance in the market. They know exactly when to trade and when to stop trading. The approach of such people is not irregular but systematic and disciplined. To sum it up financial world is a world of chaos with billions of possibilities (FOCUS ON THE ONE THAT MAKES SENSE TO YOU AND COINCIDES WITH YOUR PERSONALITY AND ROUTINE) anyone can trade Weather your doctor or an engineer or just a high school student provided you are consistent, disciplined and motivated (YES UNDERSTANDING OF MARKET MOVEMENT IS VERY CRITICAL BUT YOU DON’T HAVE TO FOLLOW AND TRADE EVERY MOVE). 2) More importantly your Mind set (psychology) Now if you remember I asked you 2 question in the beginning 1st paragraph. If you focus on the fundamentals of that question, they are based on you and your way thinking (NOT ON YOUR METHOD OF TRADING LIKE I STRESSED EARLIER THERE ARE BILLIONS OF WAY OF MAKING MONEY IN THE MARKET STICK TO SOMETHING U BELIEVE IN ) I myself have been trading for almost 1 year am I a millionaire? No, I am not (and I say it proudly) I too was introduced in a conventional way just like many of you are. But trading (IS NOT A GET RICH QUICK SCHEME) (THIS NEEDS TO BE OUT THERE) but rather a skill set and unregulated chaotic state of mind that needs correction and discipline of execution which will I guarantee you results which brings me to my final and most important point YOU ARE THE MOST IMPORTANT PART OF YOUR TRADING JOURNEY Focus on yourself (yes u do need to understand the dynamics of market and its movement but alone with that I’m sorry to say you can’t achieve what u hope to achieve Let’s do some simple math’s in term of percentage shall we to give you an idea what I’m talking about Account size USD % return on investment USD ROI Account size X10 USD % return Usd ROI 1000 2 20 10,000 2 200 10000 2 200 100,000 2 2000 100000 2 2000 1,000,000 2 20,000 Don’t exhaust yourself trying to get rich fast as possible that won’t work at least not in the long run focus on getting solid return percentages first weekly, monthly, yearly consistently and get a job to build yourself step by step don’t rush the process and always believe in yourself give me a like if you agree
Education
by Danialhassan
1
Tired of Losing?"The Market cannot hurt Me. I can only hurt my Self!" - Josh Ridenour There is a Time for Losing - The 29th verse of the Tao Te Ching is about how there is a time for everything in life. A time for being ahead, a time for being behind. In the market, there is also a time for everything. A time for large profits, small profits, break even trades, losers, and consecutive losers which lead to a draw down. It is easy to get caught up in the heat of the moment depending on where you currently are. But it does not really matter what part of the cycle you are in, it is all part of a traders life and the cycle of a trading performance. Stop Predicting! It is a false belief to believe prices and markets can be predicted. If it were possible eventually the majority of market participants would figure it out and there would be no one left on the other side of the trade, and the market would cease to exist entirely. If it were possible to predict markets, you could avoid losing trades and only take winners. Anyone who has been trading for very long knows this is simply not the case. The problem with making predictions is you then shut your mind off from the information the market gives you. Instead of being open to what is happening, your mind becomes rigid and can only take in what confirms your beliefs. This prevents you from being able to flow with the market, and open your self to the opportunity in front of you. The best traders admit when they are wrong, get out, and even reverse if necessary. If you dont believe this - listen to a stock analyst on Mad Money or any other TV show about stocks. They are often so confident in what they say that they might even convince you! But there is a reason why he is on TV talking about markets, and not trading them. If he could trade the markets and make money he would have no reason to go on TV as the financial rewards are miles apart. In fact, analysts make the worst traders because they are so caught up in their thoughts and beliefs about market direction that they cannot trade effectively! Cease efforts "Wu Wei" In Eastern Philosophy there is a term "Wu Wei." It cannot be fully understood or explained in words, only experienced. At the essence of its meaning is to "Let be" to "allow" or "flow like water down a stream." The point is to stop resisting, and stop trying so hard. The harder you grasp at something, the harder you try to succeed, the more you fail. If you are constantly trying to make money, and constantly trading, you are probably not making a consistent return. Rather than trying so hard, let trading come naturally. Profitable trading is effortless. It does not require thought, only action. In fact, I try to do as little as possible, and trade as little as possible. My most profitable weeks I hardly trade at all! This has become a fundamental aspect of my trading system. Instead of constantly trying to make money all the time, I simply wait for a pot of gold to be in front of me before I do anything. Then, I take it. Again if you dont believe me; try as hard as you can tomorrow to make as much money as possible and see what happens! Stop Trying to Remove or Control Emotions - Most traders who have been trading for a while come to the idea that emotions prevent them from success and are standing in their way. I know, as I have been there. And so we try as hard as we can to remove emotions from our trading. There is a problem with this concept. You are a human right? As long as you are human, you will have emotions; no matter how hard you try to remove them. It is simply not possible. So removing emotions or attempting to do so is the wrong approach. Instead; use your emotions to your advantage! They are warning signs; listen to them. Then there is the negative internal dialogue which the market often brings out. After a series of losing trades, many traders get upset and feel bad. They blame the market for taking from them, and feel like a loser. How do you think a trader will perform after feeling this way for a few days or longer? His performance suffers as he tries to take back what was once his and he compounds his mistakes by trading out of a negative mindset. You have to learn to recognize and become aware of your internal dialogue. It is very important to your trading career, and your every day life. Most of us live our lives without the slightest idea as to what we are doing to our selves. Your mental structure is a choice. This is what I mean when I say "The Market cannot hurt me, I can only hurt my Self." My Trading Psychology book "A Traders Mentality - The Path of Self Discovery and Being a Trader" is all about these ideas and how to free your mind and better your trading performance. If you found this helpful, please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions.
Education
by tradersmentality
The Hardest Part of Trading (Not what you Think)Seeking More information - When first introduced to markets, every beginner immediately thinks he must learn the rules of the market in order to succeed. He initially believes there is a "holy grail" a system, a leader, or a mathematical equation like Fibonacci levels. He believes these will protect him in the market, and will lead him to a profit once he understands them. The problem is, there are no set rules which work consistently in the market. If there were, the institutions and everyone else would simply use them. What would happen then? Well, there would be no one or institution to take the opposite trade, and the market would cease to exist altogether. And so the new trader changes from one system to another, from one guru to another, and constantly thinks he must learn more information in order to succeed. What he believes to be preventing his success is a lack of knowledge, a lack of information. But you see, the more information you have does not necessarily lead to better decisions. There is a lot of evidence to support the contrary, and suggests that too many choices actually impair decision making skills. On top of this, most of the information in the trading world is quite simply wrong. There are 10 x more scam artists who claim to "know" and will take your money to teach you how to trade than there are profitable traders. These people do not understand markets them selves, and cannot make money in the market, so instead they prey on new market entrants. This is the primary reason I started my trading website; to provide high value information at a low cost. And to give those who are serious about trading an actual chance to make it in the markets. Dealing with Uncertainty - The reason most traders seek new information is because they are afraid of uncertainty and want certainty. They seek something to protect them in the market. Something to protect them from themselves. A system that will guarantee a profit. But there is no such thing. Markets constantly change and evolve through the market cycle. And there is no system that works across all three parts of the market cycle. The sooner you realize this, the closer you will be to making a profit. It is very hard to learn how to deal with uncertainty. But you do it every day. When you wake up in the morning are you certain you will live through the end of the day? No, and you can never be completely certain of this. Certainty is an illusion. There is no certainty in this life. The only certainty is... uncertainty! Patience and Discipline (Ability to Do Nothing) - Every profitable trader uses these two terms (patience and discipline) when asked how they are profitable. When a beginner hears this, he rarely understands what this means. Discipline means doing something even when you dont want to do it, or doing something you dont want to do. Patience means waiting for your turn, or waiting for something to happen. In other words, when the time is not right you must do nothing. This stokes a fear in most people, especially in today's give me distractions, social media world. They say "Well what am i supposed to do if i am doing nothing?" Doing nothing seems contrary to getting what you want, getting somewhere. In and outside of the trading world everyone believes in order to be a "trader" you must trade - constantly. This is why most lose money. Because they do not understand that there is a time for doing nothing. And that time is most of the time! See more on understanding markets (Price Action Trading) and yourself (Trading Psychology) at my website below. If you found this helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions.
SP:SPXEducation
by tradersmentality
How to Trade to Win"Those who lose - trade not to lose. Those who are successful - trade to Win." Losing Vs Winning Most traders are more focused on not losing than they are on winning. Do you understand what this means? This means you are acting not in your best interest, but against your self. By focusing on how much you can or might lose, or on not losing, you increase the likelihood of making mistakes which ultimately lead to a losing traders equation, and a negative equity curve. Profitable traders do not care about losing. They understand it is part of winning. They focus on winning. What is the best move in this moment? Should I get out or continue to hold based on what the market is telling me? Winning traders accept the risk totally and completely; before getting into the trade. In other words, they have already lost what is on the line. Therefore they act in their own best interest, not based on their thoughts about what they could lose, but based on what the market is telling them to do in this moment. Other than this psychological difference, here are a few other key components on How to Trade To Win. Defined Edge - Every trader who is making money in the market has some form of edge which he employs. Even if his edge is purely intuitive. This is extreme and rare however, and most traders have clearly defined their edge and will only trade that edge. This removes randomness. Many beginners think they are going to study the market and be able to trade the market no matter what it is doing (trade intuitively). This is simply not the case for most. The purpose of studying the market is to identify opportunities in form of an edge. An edge is a setup or context which repeats itself over time. It might occur once a day, once a week, or once a month. It does not matter. All that matters is that you only trade your clearly defined edge, and leave the randomness behind. For more information, you can read about the edge I use in every market I trade. We also describe how you can develop your own edge, and trade it in any market. Stop Doing, Relax Efforts - If you are losing in the market, chances are you are doing too much. Many beginners, and even experienced traders think they must be trading in order to be a successful trader. This leads to random trading, over trading, and mistakes which compound themselves. You end up digging a hole, and instead of looking for a way out, you look for a different shovel. The harder you try to make a profit, the more you do, the more actions you make, and the more you lose. The market rewards those who are observant, disciplined, and most importantly patient. The market takes from those who try too hard, and do too much. If you dont believe me, try as hard as you can to make money, and see how you do! By relaxing your efforts, you relax your mind. In turn relax your actions and decision making. You do not have to trade every day to be a profitable trader. It sounds paradoxical doesn't it? How can I make money trading if I dont trade? By only trading when it is appropriate like when your edge is present, you better your odds of success. Profitable trading does not come from trading constantly. Profitable trading comes from the act of non-doing, and out of a state of emptiness. Profitable trading is effortless, it comes out of waiting for just the right moment before taking action. And then waiting some more while the market proves you right or wrong. Profitable trading is not forced; it just happens. Active VS Passive Trading - This is very similar to the previous topic. Active trading is a trader who is constantly in the market, trading whatever he see's or feels right. This trader is often wrong, and when he is right he makes the mistake of exiting too early due to fear. This leads to a negative traders equation as he continues to struggle to do the right thing. An Active Trader mentality is one which does not believe in "non-doing." He believes he must, and can, do something. He is afraid of missing out and is often swayed by thoughts and emotions. So he continues trading never looking back, and at the end of the month cannot figure out why his account is in the red. A Passive Trader is the opposite. He passes on more trades than he takes. He does not care about what he misses out on. He only cares about what he takes and the actions he makes in the market. He does not force trades, he just watches the market until he knows what to do. Or he waits and waits until his edge finally sets up. He is passive in his efforts, rather than active. He does not care if he doesn't trade today, this week, or even this month. Trading is not what is important to him; winning is. He knows that profits come from sitting, waiting. Because he is willing to wait, he is peaceful. And profits continue to come into his account, effortlessly. For more information on developing this type of mentality, see below. We also detail how to understand markets through price action, how to create, define, and employ an edge, and how to develop your traders mentality to succeed in markets. If you found this helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions
Education
by tradersmentality
Unethical trading representations (educational)This topic has not to my knowledge been covered on Tradingview before now. I specifically explore ' unethical trading representations' and explain in the limited time what that means as a concept. To be absolutely clear, I am not asserting that every paid-for service or representation is unethical or illegal. What I am saying is that new traders and the inexperienced are like 'fresh meat' for these schemes, that aim for a small percentage of them. The impact assessment - whether or not new traders pay for 'inner circle' access in these things, is of real importance. Nothing said in this post refers to any identifiable individual, group or entity. New traders especially need to be hyper-vigilant and cautious before parting with their money. But even if not parting with money, the potential negative impact is of importance. I declare a personal bias, that I have been stung by three of these early in my trading career.
Education
by Captain_Walker
MOST IMPORTANT TRADE LESSONS!Lesson 9 Trading Psychology is Important When you look at the market you should see your self. The market is a collection of buyers and sellers. You are a participant in that marketplace, and therefore you are the market. How can you understand the market without understanding yourself? The mental landscape of a trader is extremely important and very valuable to a profitable trader. Those that do not understand this, are likely not making money in the market. Most people wanting to be traders never stop to consider this, and they think it is more knowledge about markets they need to make money. Most of the time it is what is going on in their mind that needs work. If you think you are going to wake up one day and be a profitable trader without working on your self, you are mistaken. If you think you are going to read a few books or watch 100 videos on trading and walk into the market the following week and make money, the traders who know the value of internal work will thank you for your money! Of course you must first understand markets, price action, the traders equation, and how to read a chart. But after that you must move on and dive into your trading psychology . It is not understanding markets that brings money into your account. It is your understanding of your perceptions of the market, awareness of your internal dialogue, thoughts, and emotions, along with your knowledge of the market. Ultimately it is your actions that are generated from these that dictate whether or not you will make money. If you do not understand what is happening within your mind at any given time, you are unlikely to achieve consistency long term. Sure you may pick a few good trades. Anyone can find themselves in a winning trade, even those who know nothing about markets. But will they continue to perform well over a month or a year? It is very unlikely. Trading psychology is vital to trading, whether you choose to accept it or not. The market is a paradox, a contradiction. If your mind is tied up and you are unaware, you will make poor actions in the market. Your mind must be free. Free to flow with the market, regardless of what you want or expected. You must be able to bring your mind back to the market and the necessary action right now. If not, you will be stuck within thoughts of what happened 5 minutes ago, or held by anger and frustration for what the market should be doing. If you do not devote time to understanding your mental landscape you will never grow, and never escape the mental turmoil which the market can cause, no matter how much time you devote to understanding what markets do.. For more information on how to develop this awareness or understand your self on a deeper level, see trading psychology. Lesson 10 Allow for windfall profits Many traders believe they must hold for a reward of twice their risk or believe they have high probability and so exit at one times the risk before the market takes it back. These concepts and ideas are more likely to hurt your performance than benefit it. The truth is, the market offers what it offers, and that's it. Sure sometimes its exactly 1x the risk or twice the risk. Other times it is much more. Cutting a winning trade just because it is reasonable, does not make it the best choice. In fact, when you are in a position with exceptional follow through, you must allow it to flourish. In other words, you must allow it to grow into a windfall profit. It only takes 1 out of 10 of these types of trades to create a positive net result. If you cut this 1 trade short because the market has gone to twice your risk, you are only hurting yourself and your numbers. This is like cutting a flower when it is just starting to bud. You do not allow the flower to bloom , and prevent the beauty which will soon appear. Instead you must nourish the plant, give it water, and allow it to grow into what it can be. Cutting a winning trade short is a self inflicted wound. This is often due to fear such as fear of a reversal, or fear of giving back profits. Thoughts of getting back what you previously lost, or hanging on to what you have right now is what leads to these poor actions. Being unwilling to allow for a pullback against the position which is necessary to allow it to grow. So how do you know when to hold and when to exit? That takes experience. What is important is your willingness to learn, and openness to allow a great trade to flourish. However there are signs which can help you identify which trades are likely to turn into a windfall profit, and those that you should take what the market offers you. For clarity and more information on this see Investing Guide. *If you find this analysis helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by tradersmentality
Lessons from an Experienced Trader #3Lesson 7 Trade Outcome is Random The outcome of any given trade is random, no matter how strong your edge is. It is impossible to predict whether a trade will result in a loss, decent profit, or a windfall profit. Contrary to what most Price Action traders and price analysts believe, you cannot and will never be able to predict the market. Most amateur traders fail to recognize this fact, or deny this reality altogether. They believe eventually, they will be able to avoid losing trades and pick winners. They do not understand the outcome of any given trade is random, and therefore impossible to know before hand. Consider weather prediction as an example. Meteorologists have highly sophisticated weather models and algorithms to predict weather behavior, just like traders and institutions in the market. Yet the weathermen cannot accurately predict what will occur. They can say "There is a 60% chance of rain today if you live in X." But they cannot say exactly when or where rain will fall. It is the same in the market. You may have a good idea of what may occur, and even be right! However, there is still a reasonable chance (usually around 40%) that you are wrong, and the exact opposite will occur. The market is always right. It does not matter what you think or believe should or will happen. All that matters is what is happening. Just because a trade looks good or an edge is strong, does not mean it will result in a profit. There is still an opposing probability that it will fail. The point is that you will never know beyond a reasonable doubt what the market will do next. You may have a hunch, or a strong edge, but that will only get you so far. Therefore the only thing to do is to always take your edge, because you never know if this will be the windfall profit you are looking for, a small profit, or a loss. And quite frankly, it does not matter! Lesson 8 Market Outcome Does Not Matter The outcome of any single trade does not matter. It is very common for traders to become attached to the outcome of this individual trade. This is what leads to emotions, anger and frustration with trading and the market. We get stuck in the mindset that we have to win X amount of profit like 2X risk on this trade, or have to make money every day to be a profitable trader. This is not the case at all. In fact you only have to win one 1 or 2 really good trades out of 10 to maintain a consistent performance. Any single trade is irrelevant to a trading system or strategy. It is the cumulative result over a series of trades that results in a profit. This is why it is so important to know and only trade your edge, otherwise you introduce randomness into your performance, and are unable to produce consistency. *If you find this analysis helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions.
AEducation
by tradersmentality
2
Lessons from an Experienced Trader #3Lesson 7 Trade Outcome is Random The outcome of any given trade is random, no matter how strong your edge is. It is impossible to predict whether a trade will result in a loss, decent profit, or a windfall profit. Contrary to what most Price Action traders and price analysts believe, you cannot and will never be able to predict the market. Most amateur traders fail to recognize this fact, or deny this reality altogether. They believe eventually, they will be able to avoid losing trades and pick winners. They do not understand the outcome of any given trade is random, and therefore impossible to know before hand. Consider weather prediction as an example. Meteorologists have highly sophisticated weather models and algorithms to predict weather behavior, just like traders and institutions in the market. Yet the weathermen cannot accurately predict what will occur. They can say "There is a 60% chance of rain today if you live in X." But they cannot say exactly when or where rain will fall. It is the same in the market. You may have a good idea of what may occur, and even be right! However, there is still a reasonable chance (usually around 40%) that you are wrong, and the exact opposite will occur. The market is always right. It does not matter what you think or believe should or will happen. All that matters is what is happening. Just because a trade looks good or an edge is strong, does not mean it will result in a profit. There is still an opposing probability that it will fail. The point is that you will never know beyond a reasonable doubt what the market will do next. You may have a hunch, or a strong edge, but that will only get you so far. Therefore the only thing to do is to always take your edge, because you never know if this will be the windfall profit you are looking for, a small profit, or a loss. And quite frankly, it does not matter! Lesson 8 Market Outcome Does Not Matter The outcome of any single trade does not matter. It is very common for traders to become attached to the outcome of this individual trade. This is what leads to emotions, anger and frustration with trading and the market. We get stuck in the mindset that we have to win X amount of profit like 2X risk on this trade, or have to make money every day to be a profitable trader. This is not the case at all. In fact you only have to win one 1 or 2 really good trades out of 10 to maintain a consistent performance. Any single trade is irrelevant to a trading system or strategy. It is the cumulative result over a series of trades that results in a profit. This is why it is so important to know and only trade your edge, otherwise you introduce randomness into your performance, and are unable to produce consistency. *If you find this analysis helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions.
Education
by tradersmentality
Overcoming Emotions and Zen TradingOvercoming Emotions Most traders want to "overcome" their emotions. They view thoughts and emotions as the enemy which prevents them from succeeding in the market. This is a false perception. Yes emotions and thoughts can lead to actions in the market, but they are impossible to remove. So long as you are human you will have emotions and thoughts. There is an alternative to removing them, and that is to use them to your advantage in the market. By practicing mindfulness, which is awareness of thoughts, emotions, and perceptions, you can learn to recognize how these affect your trading performance. By recognizing and being aware of them, you have a chance to change the outcome. For instance if you consistently enter poor trades due to fear of missing out. When you become aware of this fear you can learn to stop yourself from entering and avoid the poor trades that hurt your performance. There is a direct correlation between how you feel about yourself or the market, and how you perform. If you are worried about money you will overly focus on risk or prices going against your position even if only slightly, and likely make a mistake by exiting too soon. Or you do not want to take the loss and will hold the trade too long, hoping the market will let you off the hook with a smaller loss. What is Zen Trading about? Zen trading is a mindset of flowing with the market without hesitation, being aware of and trading along side emotions, and making actions intuitively rather than forcefully. A Zen trader remains in a relaxed, effortless state of mind; without any internal struggle. He does not attach his self worth to his performance at any given time, and is unhindered by market outcomes. He acts on his edge when it is present without hesitating, and takes what the market gives him when it is time to do so. He trusts himself, his strategy, and the market to provide him with a consistent performance over time; whether or not he makes money on this trade, today, or this week. He is aware of the bigger picture; the Tao or life, and knows there is more to life than trading or money. Trading is not his life. It is simply something he does to earn a living, and he seeks to maintain a Zen spirit in his trading and actions in the market. *If you find this analysis helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by tradersmentality
Lessons from an Experienced Trader #2Lesson 4 Know what you want in the market Contrary to what most believe, successful traders do not actually trade constantly. Attempting to trade constantly leads to increased commission costs, random trading, and compound mistakes. In fact, successful traders spend most of their time doing absolutely nothing! How long does it take to enter an order? A click of the button. A few seconds. Maybe a few minutes at most to create bracket orders. So what do Professional Traders do the rest of the time? They wait. They wait until the market offers what they want or are looking for. Then after entering they wait some more to see if they are right. They wait for the market to provide them with the information to either hold, or exit. They allow themselves to Be, the trade to Be, the market to Be and do what it is going to do. They do not force actions or attempt to make the market do what they want. They wait until the action comes about on its own, until it is natural, a reflex. If you do not know what it is in the market that you are looking for, you will fold under pressure and confusion. A Professional Trader knows exactly what he wants (not just to make money), he knows what he is looking for in the market, and is willingness to wait for it to arrive. By doing so, he is rewarded and paid by the market for his patience and willing to do nothing. Even if this means not trading for hours, days, or even weeks depending on the time frame. It is far better to do nothing and avoid unnecessary losses, than to try and create tensions, forced actions, and lose money. You have to ask yourself "What is more important? The actual act of trading, or making money?" Lesson 5 Define your edge An edge is what you have defined as being what you want from the market in the previous lesson. This can be anything from a specific setup, to just plain context like a strong market. If you do not know what your edge is, you will struggle to perform consistently due to randomness. Many new traders, especially those who follow price action, believe they should be able to trade the market no matter what the context is. If you think you are just going to walk in to the market, trade based on whatever the market is doing and make money; you are fooling yourself. Doing so will lead you to trade randomly, entering willy nilly at the market, and make many mistakes which will cost you your profitability. Do you walk into Walmart or Aldi's without knowing what you want to buy until you get there? No, you have a list of items, or at least an idea of what you need before you go. Do you start a business because you woke up this morning and thought it would be nice to own a car wash? Hopefully not. You first identify an opportunity, and then create a business model after a lot of research. Then finally you open the business. Of course everyone thinks or says "well so and so does this and that, and he seems to be making money." Sure, maybe he is, maybe not. If he is, he has defined his edge and is simply employing it. What someone else does has absolutely nothing to do with what you should be doing. Once you have defined your edge, you must wait for it to arrive. If the market is not offering what you want or what your edge calls for, you do nothing until it is. If your edge is a trend trading method and the market is in a trading range, you do not trade until the market is trending. If you have not clearly defined your edge, you should not trade. If you do not know what it is in the market you want and are looking for, you have no business in the market. Simple as that. If you chose to do so, you are putting yourself at unnecessary risk and trading randomly. Yes this sounds harsh, but it is the reality of the market. The market will not give you anything, especially if you don't even know what it is that you want!
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by tradersmentality
Lessons from an Experienced Trader Lessons from an experienced trader. Lesson 1. Never scalp. Although scalping seems to be the most profitable and best method in today's market, it is certainly not. Scalping is the hardest method to achieve a consistent performance. High frequency trading firms scalp, but they have many advantages over the retail trader including direct access to exchanges, highly developed algorithms with no emotions, and extremely low costs to name a few. When you are scalping you are competing against these firms or trying to manually do what they do with a computer. This above is only one problem. The bigger issue is the risk involved. When scalping, you must use a wide stop and be willing to scale in. One bad trade will erase 20 or more good trades. You must be extremely proficient at reading price charts, and be able to act without hesitation. This is virtually impossible for anyone who has not been trading for at least 3 years and has done extensive work on himself to develop the ability to flow with the market, constantly, without any internal conflict. And worst of all, scalping leads to bad habits. Once you get into the mindset of "get out quick" it is very hard to correct down the road. This makes swing trading more difficult later on after you realize it is a better method. Lesson 2. Swing Trade the best setups Swing trading is much more forgiving than scalping, offers a larger reward, and allows for a smaller risk (usually). This makes it much easier to make money long term. When swing trading you only have to win on around 40% of your trades to make a profit. If you can develop the patience to wait for strong setups, you can increase the winning percentage to anywhere from 50-70% and greatly increase your traders equation. A swing trading approach is also more forgiving when it comes to reading price charts. Some of those who discuss Price Action would lead you to believe you can predict what the markets are going to do next. This is simply not true, no matter how good you are at reading a chart. There is always a degree of randomness in the market, with any edge, any setup, or any context. When swing trading, you can afford to be wrong and make mistakes. So what setups should a swing trader take? Well, it depends if you want to always in trade or swing trade with signal bar stops. Either is fine, although an always in approach takes more practice and is harder to get right until you are good at reading charts. An always in trader has two choices. One to take every logical reversal (hardest to accomplish), and constantly reverse when necessary. Or two; wait for the always in direction to be clear and enter any in any fashion until the market flips. The second method is easier, although still tough, and slightly less profitable. An always in trader does not trade when prices are in a trading range. The reward is simply too low, and there are too many reversals to take and that fail, resulting in repeated losses and increased commission costs. What about a swing trader? A swing trader typically uses a signal bar stop, but can also use a swing stop to increase his probability. A swing trader does not have to take every trade he sees (unlike the first always in trader). In fact, it is best to wait for the best and clearest setups. What setups are these? High 2's, Low 2's (large) reversals and flags, Wedge reversals and flags, failed breakouts, and failed reversals. The first two are much easier to identify correctly for someone with less experience. The later two often trick newer traders, or fail once or twice before succeeding, making it a bit harder to get right. Lesson 3. Work on your self Like discussed before, most new traders and even those who have been around but haven't reached consistency believe that eventually you can read prices well enough to predict what will happen next. It does not matter how long you have traded, you will never predict the market. If it were possible to do so, the market would cease to exist! So instead of only focusing on reading charts and price action, you must work on your self. You must understand your strengths and weaknesses. You must be aware of your emotions and how they affect your performance. If you do not believe your emotions are directly related to your performance, you will not achieve consistency long term. We are all humans, a computer cannot do what I do. And you cannot remove emotions, no matter how hard you try to do so. So what is the alternative? Develop awareness of them, and use them to your advantage! It is as plain and simple as this. Trading requires you to understand your self, on a deep and internal level. You must be in tune with your self and the market. If you chose to ignore this fact, you may succeed temporarily, but it is only a matter of time before your performance diminishes. In order to make a lot of money, you must feel you deserve it. If you do not work on yourself, this simply will not happen. Does a professional athlete become a star by waiting around for his coach to tell him what to do? No. He dedicates himself in every possible way to his sport, including conditioning his mind to outperform his competition. Rather than waiting 2 or 3 years before realizing this, start working on your self from the very beginning. Not only will you become a better trader faster, you will become a better person; a better you.
AEducation
by tradersmentality
4
Introduction to Trading PsychologyIntroduction to Trading Psychology Learning to read a price chart takes a while, but is relatively straight forward. It is obvious learning how to read a price chart alone is not what leads to consistent profits. So, what is it that separates the very few successful traders from the so many failures? Is it their strategy, their money management skills, IQ, were they born with a different skill set than most, do they work harder than most, or are they just plain lucky? All of this sounds plausible, but are they really the driving factor behind consistent profits? The short answer is no, none of the above. Perhaps we have been looking for the answer in the wrong place all along. In fact, most traders never even consider the possibility that it is their attitude or mental habits which prevent their success. What truly separates the winners from the losers has nothing to do with external factors, but rather what goes on internally while observing and engaging the market, or in other words; a trader's mentality.
Education
by tradersmentality
Psych Hack #0006 - Dissonance TheoryIn this screencast I explore dissonance theory. Some don't know that trading is very little to do with charts and indicators - and terribly more to do with psychological matters that affect our decision-making. Seems a bit strange as my charts are usually covered in indicators. I share lessons learned. I explore what the mind does when an alternative perspective or evidence emerges. Disclaimer (required by Tradingview): This content is for educational purposes only. There is shared experience here based on exploration and study of psychological phenomena affecting decision-making and risk management. No guarantees are made that my knowledge or experience is right - and therefore should not be relied upon in real trading environments.
OANDA:US30USDEducation
by Captain_Walker
Comprehensive Trading ProcessDisclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Consensio: (King) 5% when Price crosses Short Term MA | 10% when Price crosses Medum Term MA | 15% when Short Term MA crosses Medium Term MA | 20% when Medium MA turns over | 25% Price cross Long Term MA & Long MA flattens / turns over| 25% Golden Cross Patterns (Queen): Favorites: hyperwaves, parallel channels, descending triangle, head & shoulders, Wyckoff’s, double bottoms & tops, flags | Least favorite: symmetrical triangle Horizontals (Rook): Horizontals > trend lines Trendline (Bishop): Very powerful when used in combination with Consensio. One of my favorite setups is a trendline break alongside a reversal in Consensio. Parabolic SAR (knight): Best tool I have found for setting / adjusting stop losses. Can also be used as no trade zone. For ex: if wanting to go long and SAR is bearish (above price) then could / should wait for SAR to break before entering. BTCUSDSHORTS (pawn) : If shorts are at / near ATH’ levels then I do not want to be short and will actually have a bias for going long. Funding Rates (pawn): Helps me to understand supply / demand. When shorts are getting expensive then I expect a short squeeze to be around the corner. Contango / Backwardation (pawn): Not a timing indicator. Is used to determine bullish / bearish bias and can help to identify tops / bottoms / support and resistance. Watch the video series and Google “Ugly Old Goat Backwardation” to learn more. TD’ Sequential (pawn): “The trend is your friend until it’s about to end” -Tom Demark | Used to identify when a trend is becoming exhausted which can be very helpful to confirm or deny an entry. Ex: if wanting to go long on a green 7/8/9 then would strongly prefer to enter on correction that is expected to follow. Average Directional Index (pawn): Used to identify when trends are becoming exhausted. When ADX’ reaches resistance / ATH levels then it is likely that the trend is reaching a point of exhaustion Ichimoku Cloud (pawn): Starting to use traditional settings across the board. Crypto settings seem to make the cloud useless when markets are volatile, whereas the traditional settings seem to line up nicely with the MA’s I use for Consensio. Price Action (pawn): Helps me understand when markets are overbought / oversold in the short term. In my experience it is very rare for Bitcoin or Ethereum to move more than 10% in 24 hours. Therefore if I am wanting to enter long and the price is + > / = 7% in the past 24 hours then I will be very cautious and usually wait for a pullback / consolidation. Bollinger Bands (pawn): Very helpful for recognizing when a trading range is coming to an end, which can be very useful for spotting trends that are just starting / about to start. Also like the Bollinger Band % to help illustrate extremes. Relative Strength Index: Divergences can be very useful for understanding short term price movements and potentially full on reversals. When markets are moving I like to check the RSI on the 1h and 4h charts and pay close attention to divergences as indication that a trend could be exhausting. Stochastic Oscillator: Very useful in trending markets that have not gone parabolic. Can be helpful in ranging markets as well, but not nearly as much. Can get some very good signals on the 3d chart. If there is a buy / sell signal then I think it is best to wait for %K and %D to cross the boundary lines before considering it significant. Hierarchy of Indicators The best traders know which indicators are most important at which times. A trader is like a carpenter and the indicators are akin to his toolbelt. Through experience he or she knows which ones to reach for, exactly how they are used and what adjustments could be required for a specific circumstance. It is one thing to understand that an MA rolling over is an indication of a trend reversal. It is entirely another to fully believe it and be able to act on it. Next is understanding which indicators can be disregarded at which times and which should always be taken into account. Above lists my indicators by order of importance. However that is only a default and it will change based on market conditions. For example: if a hyperwave is present then patterns become more important than Consensio and trendlines become more important than horizontals. If market is parabolic then I find the Stochastic useless and will adjust the settings on the RSI to 30. If no trend is present then the Bollinger Band can go from a pawn to the King. It would take much too long to go into all of the different variables I can think of and how it can change the hierarchy of indicators. What is important is that you start to develop the feel for it yourself. The only way I know how to do that is through checking all of them on a regular basis, in all different types of markets (bull, bear, flat, parabolic). Learn -> Practice -> Fail -> Learn -> Practice -> Understand -> Apply -> Internalize -> Believe -> Achieve -> Fail -> Learn Monthly, Weekly & Daily Processes Daily Check daily close every day. If entry or exit was signaled then make sure to get filled within 30 minutes of close. If passing on an entry signal then notate why. Never pass on exit signal. Update trading ledger to reflect any changes (I will be posting my results in the 2 > 20 Bitcoin Trading Challenge). Go through the TA Process listed above on a daily basis (I post my analysis in the Bitcoin' Daily Update). Make sure that you are highly focused during the candle close otherwise the mistakes will compound. I prefer to go to the gym on a daily basis and be disciplined about my diet in order to maintain a high level of focus. I have also committed to a daily hot springs meditation session that has proven extremely valuable over the past year. For anyone that watches Mr. Robot think of Tyrell Wellick chopping wood while confined by himself in the forest. Having a task that is repeatable on a daily basis provides balance, perspective and focus. I find a consistent sleep schedule to be vital in my performance as a trader. I make sure that I am in bed by a certain time so that I wake up feeling refreshed / energized and ready to trade. Weekly On Sunday I will analyze the weekly chart instead of the daily chart. Trading ledger that gets updated daily is used for weekly PnL statements which get done on Saturday morning instead of preparing for traditional markets to close. I keep an excel spreadsheet for each exchange I trade on and include sections for Date, Entry, USD Inventory, BTC Inventory, Withdrawals, Delta, PnL, Unrealized PnL, In position. When I first got into crypto I completely disconnected from my friends and family. To ensure the first doesn't happen again I commit to two social activities per week and for the latter I commit to calling my mother every Sunday. Monthly Review biggest trades from prior month. Dissect entries, exits and position sizes. Everything should be repeatable / explainable in hindsight. If it isn't that means I didn't stick to the guidelines and that is mistake. I cannot expect to be a perfect trader, however I can expect to learn from my mistakes. Monthly Best & Worst Dressed List. After reviewing the trades find the best and worst examples. Print out the charts, notate why they made the list and put them in a binder. In the short term, how I trade is exponentially more important than how much money I make or lose. Therefore if the monthly PnL was subpar but very few mistakes were made on the worst dressed trades then I consider that a huge success and will expect the variance to even out in the medium - long run. Weekly PnL statements is used for monthly PnL statements -It feels really good to make a lot of money and it can feel very frustrating when results do not meet expectations. This is why I believe that is it vital to focus on the process and improving instead of the results. A few good results could be the byproduct of luck. One good / great process will lead to sustainable results as long as you can remain disciplined / diligent. While some may prefer to be lucky rather than good I strongly prefer to put in the effort that it takes to be good. Furthermore luck seems to be attracted to those who put in the consistent effort. Nevertheless I still track short term results because I have bills to pay. Eventually I would like to only pay attention to annual results. “So you want to be a carpenter, do you? Well it takes more than a hammer, boy, you're gonna need blueprints and a will to build, and Straighten your cap! you look like you've been through a war. Wipe that grin off your mug, you got a sturdy frame? Sluggish posture just won't cut it. You're gonna need schooling, and, and, and take notes! And god if I catch you yawning again you're gonna regret ever asking for my help, And dammit you gotta hustle, this is a slacker-free zone And, where's my pencil? go get your hard-hat, here's a nickel, go get us a ruler and a saw and a drill and lots of graph paper!” -Aesop Rock
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Sawcruhteez
5
IMPROVE YOUR TRADING PSYCHOLOGY NOW / VIDEO / EDUCATIONALHey TradingView In this video I will be going over a swing trade from this week and breaking down how this trade could impact a trader's psychology both positively and negatively. I also cover some easy to implement strategies that will make it much easier for you to let your winners run. It really bothers me how little attention seems to be devoted to trading psychology. This is by far the hardest thing for most traders to grasp and master. Please take a look at this video and let me know if it is able to help you.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by ImreSG
2
Psychological trading hack #0002 (educational)In this screencast I share some of my own personal journey which I suspect may resound with many a struggling trader out there. This post is in keeping with the house rules on text-based analyses, and psychological self-analysis is the biggest most important aspect of trading. It is clearly in the category of 'Beyond Technical Analysis' I had been thinking for many days where to start with this journey. This morning I hit on it. It is about me! Not about charts and methods. So that's where I start. I share this for the benefit of all traders and especially new traders. I'm not saying I am right about everybody. I only know about my own journey and I think there may be some 'psychological hacks' in all this, to curtailing much suffering among other traders. Everybody knows that discipline in trading is required, and that is primarily a psychological issue. Proven methodologies for profitability just do not work for a majority of people. So the big factor is 'the people' and what leads them to make bad decisions in trading. I've been tackling it. Join me on the journey. This could be (though not necessarily) the most important journey of all.
Education
by Captain_Walker
Journey of 1000 psychological trading hacks.Join me - to boldly go where 'no man' has gone before. This is the Final Frontier. I take on the big issue - head on. This is the one that is more likely to make the biggest difference to achieving consistent profitability. I assert that it technical and fundamental analysis are not most important issues in trading - at all! If 'everybody' could simply do proper technical and fundamental analysis and make load of money, then everybody would be rich. It's never happened. It ain't gonna happen! I say that our enemies lie within. I say that dealing with the enemies within - by self-analysis, is the path to unlimited gains. AND - it's not just me saying so. Could this be your 'Mission Improbable' or your 'Mission Possible'? The choice is yours. This post is in keeping with Tradingview's text-based analysis guidance
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Captain_Walker