US 500 (SPI) / US Dollar forum
The S&P 500 is trading near all-time highs, but history warns:
Bullish peaks often come just before sharp falls.
🔁 Historical Parallels:
2000: Dot-com bubble peak → -49%
2008: Credit bubble → -57%
2022: Post-COVID rally → -25%
2025?: AI + crypto + rate-cut FOMO → ⚠️
🧠 What’s Building Pressure in 2025?
Trump’s return = tariff risk + Fed interference
Fed may delay cuts → policy confusion
Global equity + crypto markets showing exhaustion
Low VIX = complacency → often precedes sharp corrections
📊 Technical View:
📏 Rising wedge & bearish divergence forming
🧨 Support zones: 5,800 / 5,600 / 5,200
🔻 Correction potential: -10% to -20% by Q4 2025
🎯 Strategy:
Consider trimming longs near highs
Hedge with puts / inverse ETFs (e.g., SH, PSQ)
Watch for breakdown confirmation below 5,800
"Every major correction starts with maximum confidence. This looks like that moment."
short from there to 6090
Bullish trend: SPX continues in the 3rd wave higher. Potential target: $7,000 using Fibonacci extension and round number...