Discussions

US 500 (SPI) / US Dollar forum

5 hours ago

SP500 Looks Severely Overextended – Reality Check Needed

The S&P 500 continues to climb despite weak macro fundamentals, deteriorating breadth, and an increasingly narrow rally driven by just a handful of tech names.

🟠 RSI near exhaustion
🟠 PE ratios detached from economic outlook
🟠 Yield curve still inverted
🟠 No Fed rate cut confirmed
🟠 Fiscal concerns mounting (debt, deficit, tariffs)

This is no longer a broad market rally — it’s a speculative melt-up. Historically, these setups don’t end quietly.

If liquidity tightens or even one narrative (rate cuts, earnings beats, geopolitics) breaks down, the drawdown could be sharp. Risk/reward is heavily skewed.

🧠 Smart money knows: You don’t chase the last 5% at the top. You prepare for mean reversion.

#SP500 #Overbought #MarketCycle #RiskManagement #MacroAnalysis #CFA #TradingView

EddieT_fx

6 hours ago

hello everyone, if anyone has any advice or a simple reply to help would be great. I’m a usual (profitable) swing trader, little over 13k past 4 months on prop firms, but looking to switch to scalping on us500 for the fact I can’t help but always look at my positions when in them😂I’m trying to find a good strategy if anyone has any beginning ideas thanks, can’t seem to get it down

DullerCloud69

7 hours ago

We seem to be likely headed towards the ATH. Daily money flow coming up heavily into the green makes this a solid play, but don't get too greedy. The ABC afterwards is likely to fill the gaps down to 5300. Indicator is VMC Cipher B. A take on Crypto Face's market cipher B, but the money flow strategy works very well for SPY, stocks, gold, or anything I've charted.

Edit: Those trading SPY may want to consider watching the US 500 Futures chart too because of its hours. The indicators will have more data to go off of instead of the shock factor they receive from gaps. Make sure your setups on SPY are not invalid on Futures because Futures traders move the market way more than SPY. You see this on the pre and post market moves all the time.

frenkees

9 hours ago

target .... ATH

Abrinael

9 hours ago

Don't invest all of your purse just yet. Keep a good amount ready for the pull-back. If markets break resistance on the upside, you gain 3-5%, but if it breaks down, you retrace 7-10%.

LORDSAXA

10 hours ago

correction soon short time 🔴🔴

Rizq-FX

11 hours ago

🧠 Quick Macro Pulse – June 3, 14:30 UK / 09:30 NY

Two early data points in — and both whisper the same message: cooling, not cracking.

📉 Redbook YoY: 4.9% vs 6.1% prior
→ A slowdown in retail sales growth.
→ Potentially disinflationary — less consumer pressure, less retail pricing power.

📦 LMI Logistics Index: 59.4 vs 58.8 prior
→ Still expansionary, but below long-term averages.
→ Indicates supply chains are stable but not overheating.

🧠 Implication:
This is not recessionary data. It leans more toward a soft-landing/disinflation scenario. Markets may interpret this as:

🔻 Slightly bearish USD

🔼 Supportive for risk assets

🔻 Lower pressure on yields (especially if JOLTs confirms later)

🎯 Titan Take:
No need to front-run. Let JOLTs + Fed speakers finish the day’s story. But this early tone supports the case for trimming fear and reacting to structure, not noise.

—

🛡️ Titan Protect | Clarity. Structure. Precision.
We don’t guess the future. We prepare for it.

Rizq-FX

12 hours ago

🧠 Market Noise vs Market Mindset
Scroll through Minds and you’ll see it:

📉 “This is about to crash.”
🚀 “ATH coming next.”

No chart. No evidence. Just loud opinions — shouted with certainty.

The truth?
That’s not analysis.
That’s emotion trying to pass as insight.

Fear.
Greed.
FOMO.
They creep in when markets go vertical or dip fast — and they love to wear the mask of confidence.

🔍 But traders with edge don’t chase opinions — they track structure.
They plan risk.
They build conviction from confluence — not crowd noise.

Before you buy into someone’s bold call (or your own gut feeling), ask:

What am I reacting to — the chart or the feeling?

Is there a signal — or just a story?

Do I have a plan — or just a hope?

🔑 How to Handle the Noise:
Mute Extremes — Confidence without context is just noise. Let it pass.

Zoom Out — Higher timeframes restore perspective. Step back to think clearly.

Write Your Why — If you can’t explain your trade in one sentence, you’re not ready.

Let Risk Speak — Size your trade based on probability, not popularity.

Prepare for Both — A real plan works in both directions. Don't predict. React with clarity.

We don’t need to know what will happen.
We need to be ready for whatever does.

That’s where the difference lies.

🛡️ Titan Protect | Clarity. Structure. Precision.
We don’t guess the future. We prepare for it.

Rizq-FX

14 hours ago

🧠 SPX500USD – Titan Sentinel Macro Insight (June 3)
📍 SPX500USD currently trading near 5915, showing signs of consolidation but structurally well-supported.

🔎 Key Takeaways:

✅ Titan Dynamic Guardian shows full macro alignment (3/3): Bullish market, bullish flow, strong signal setup.

🧠 Context Bias: Session is in mid-day positioning; no exit shift yet.

🟢 Signal Type: Bullish with 59% confidence, though some caution (B-grade) due to mixed sentiment.

📉 Price strength remains 50%, but flow, volume, and momentum are aligned long.

📊 Supporting Macro Metrics:

JOLTs data due shortly – markets watching closely.

PMI figures remain weak, suggesting recession whispers, yet CPI/PPI steady.

10Y yield at 4.41% with flattening curve, VIX slightly up at 18.9 – risk appetite contained but not retreating.

📈 Structure Notes:

Above key ORB & POC zones.

Expected move zone aligns with TP1 around 6170.

Thin liquidity suggests potential for sharp moves.

💼 Cross Asset Watch:

Gold pulling back (-1.16%) suggests lower hedging.

USD stable; DXY just under 99.

Bond yields cooling – supportive for equity valuations.

⚠️ Watch For:

Fed speakers into NY afternoon.

ORB range breach (n/a today but POC proximity is high).

End-of-week equity guard.

🔐 Macro Status:

“Strong Accumulation / Long Bias” remains intact.
SPX continues to perform as the ‘slow bull’—orderly, controlled, but firm.

Take Profits, Not Chances, Manage Risk to Accumulate.

ProfeBitcoin

18 hours ago

New ath?
I think first we can have a retracement in the SP500 around 5335 then New ATH...
Let's see what happend in the market in the next weeks.