Become a TOP 1% Trader 🔸🔸What it takes to become TOP 1% Trader? Everybody wants
to succeed in the trading game, but what's the actual formula?
🔸🔸What can we learn from the most successful global hedge fund
Renaissance Technologies? How did the Japanese legendary trader
Takashi Kotegawa become a TOP 1% Trader? Rules of life of
undefeated savage Japanese samurai Miyamoto Musashi.
🔸🔸RetTec flaship fund got 40% CAGR over a period of 30+ years, which
is an exceptional trackrecord in the industry. RenTec utilizes HFT trading
and uses multiple quantitative / statistical / data science models to gain
an edge over the market. RenTec is one of the most secretive hedge funds
in the industry, however it's clear that the fund relies on algo trading
to generate it's exceptional returns.
🔸Complex Models: Renaissance's models are built upon intricate mathematical models and statistical analysis that leverage massive datasets.
🔸High-Frequency Trading: The firm executes trades at breathtaking speeds, taking advantage of fleeting market inefficiencies.
Key takeaways from RenTec success
1) Use algo trading / HFT trading to gain an edge over the market
2) Use data science / quant models to identify patterns
3) Use proper risk management for capital protection
4) Do not overleverage / use leverage over x20
🔸🔸Takashi Kotegawa is a legendary Japanese trader who
turned initial investment of 13 000 USD into 150 mln USD trading
Japanese stock market.
🔸🔸Risk Control: His approach to managing risk ensures that trades are executed within safe limits, without jeopardizing overall financial stability.
🔸🔸Seizing Opportunities: Kotegawa's ability to swiftly identify and act on market inefficiencies underscores the importance of vigilance and quick decision-making in trading.
🔸🔸Takashi Kotegawa keeps himself out of the spotlight and gives virtually no interviews. That's one of the reasons why we don't know much about him and there are only a few pictures available on the internet.
Key takeaways from Takashi Kotegawa's success
1) Disciplined approach to trading
2) Enter / exit trades and make fast decisions
3) Grind alone and stay out of spotlight
4) Remain humble do not show off keep low profile
🔸🔸The majority of the Japanese people know Musashi Miyamoto as Japan's most famous and most skilled swordsman. His status among the Japanese has reached mythic proportions in the same measure that Westerners would give to Muhammad Ali or Michael Jordan. The life of Musashi is the gold standard of samurai in Japan.
🔸🔸Musashi's introverted nature, which manifests as a preference for being alone or engaging in solitary activities, allows him to focus on his own thoughts and ideas. He is particularly skilled at problem-solving, often finding unique and unconventional solutions that others may not think of.
🔸🔸Musashi's approach to winning was formed from repetitive disciplined training, focused practice, knowing his opponent and unorthodoxy.
Key takeaways from Miyamoto Musashi success
1) Grind alone and become savage
2) Develop your own strategy unlike any other
3) Outsmart your competition always stay sharp
4) Become ghost and lead a low profile life
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Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Ethereum (Cryptocurrency)
How much money can you make in Forex?🔸Consistentcy is the key - top professional traders aim to generate
20-30% returns / per month, obviously depends on account size,
risk tolerance, max DD, std lots exposure and multiple other factors.
🔸Depends on your trading style and risk profile, obviously.
Currently algo traders / full-auto systems generate the best returns.
🔸Forex trading bots are automated software programs that generate trading signals. Most of these robots are built with MetaTrader, PineScrips, Python and cAlgo.
🔸High-risk compounding strategy: Assuming you can double your cash multiple times in succession and start with 1,000 dollars, the 10th time, you would be a millionaire. It implies that assuming you contribute $ 1,000 and double, you contribute $ 2,000 and double, then, at that point, you do it from time to time, you will be a millionaire when you double your money the 10th time.
🔸Lower-risk strategy: risking no more than 1-5% per trade, limiting your exposure via trailing SL strategy or adjust SL to BE as soon as the trade
generates decent pnl
🔸If you want to separate yourself from the 90% (probably closer to 95% in my opinion) of traders who lose money consistently, you have to think differently.
🔸Most Forex traders overtrade and overleverage their accounts in an attempt to make 50%-100% profit or more every month.
🔸So to be in the top 5% to 10% of traders, you have to do the opposite. You have to put more focus on how much money you could lose rather than how much you can make.
🔸A higher win rate gives you more risk/reward flexibility, and a high risk/reward ratio means that your win rate can be lower and still stay profitable.
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RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Types of traders 101Overview of types of traders
SCALPER
🔸Scalpers buy and sell securities quickly, usually within seconds, with the aim of achieving profits from minuscule price changes from large trade volumes.
🔸Scalper also refers to someone who buys up in-demand merchandise or event tickets to resell at a higher price.
🔸Scalpers buy and sell securities many times in a day with the objective of making consistent net profits from the aggregate of all these transactions.
🔸Scalpers must be highly disciplined, combative by nature, and astute decision makers in order to succeed.
EATRADER / Algo Trader
🔸Algorithmic trader will use process- and rules-based computational formulas for executing trades.
🔸 Algorithmic trader is performing statistical analysis on stocks, funds, or currencies and then writing algorithms and programs using computer languages like C# or Python or PineScript.
🔸While it provides advantages, such as faster execution time and reduced costs, algorithmic trading can also exacerbate the market's negative tendencies by causing flash crashes and immediate loss of liquidity.
Technical Trader
🔸Generally, a technician uses historical patterns of trading data to predict what might happen to market in the future.
🔸A technical trader prefers to study price patterns over time periods ranging from a few minutes to a month. This is usually done using a variety of tools, such as indicators, to understand which way price is moving in any given market.
Swing Trader
🔸Swing trading refers to a trading style that attempts to exploit short- to medium-term price movements in a security using favorable risk/reward metrics.
🔸 Swing traders primarily rely on technical analysis to determine suitable entry and exit points, but they may also use fundamental analysis as an added filter
Fundumental Trader
🔸Fundumental trader focuses on company-specific events to determine which stock to buy and when to buy it. Trading on fundamentals is more closely associated with a buy-and-hold strategy rather than short-term trading.
🔸Furthermore, fundumental traders must understand technical analysis to identify trends and price patterns supporting their fundamental analysis.
Money Manager
🔸A money manager is a person or financial firm that manages the securities portfolio of individual or institutional investors.
🔸 Professional money managers do not receive commissions on transactions; rather, they are paid based on a percentage of assets under management.
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RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
Trading is a waiting game🔸Trading is a waiting game. Stop forcing trades. Learn waiting for your setups. A trader who can't wait is not a successful trader.
🔸Waiting is the hardest part of trading. And also the least talked about. If you can improve your waiting you will improve your trading.
🔸Trading is a waiting game. You sit, you wait, and you make a lot of money all at once. Profits come in bunches. The trick when going sideways between home runs is not to lose too much in between.
🔸Overtrading is the number one reason why traders blow their entire accounts because it exposes them to unnecessary risks and costs that vanish their capital. Some studies show that overtrading accounts for more than 75% of trading losses among retail traders.
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Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
CRYPTO: How it works and how it is explained for beginners.Here is a detailed explanation of the key concepts related to cryptocurrencies:
Cryptocurrency
Cryptocurrencies are decentralized digital currencies that use cryptography to secure transactions. Unlike traditional currencies, they are not issued by a central authority such as a bank.
The main characteristics of cryptocurrencies are:
-They exist only in electronic form
-Transactions are made directly between users (peer-to-peer)
-They use blockchain technology to record transactions
-Their value fluctuates according to supply and demand
Blockchain
Blockchain is the underlying technology that allows cryptocurrencies to function.
Its main features are:
-It is a distributed and decentralized ledger that records all transactions
-Each transaction forms a "block" that is added to the existing chain
-The data is encrypted and impossible to modify once recorded
-It works without a central authority thanks to a network of computers
The halving
The halving is a scheduled event that concerns certain cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin.
Its main characteristics are:
- It halves the reward given to miners for creating new blocks
- It usually occurs approximately every 4 years (every 210,000 blocks for Bitcoin)
- Its purpose is to control inflation by gradually reducing the issuance of new units
- It can have an impact on the price of the cryptocurrency by reducing the supply
_____________________________________________________________
The different types of coins
There are several categories of cryptocurrencies:
Bitcoin: The first and best known cryptocurrency
Altcoins: All cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin (e.g. Ethereum, Litecoin)
Tokens: Tokens created on existing blockchains, often linked to specific projects
Stablecoins: Cryptocurrencies whose value is indexed to a fiat currency or a stable asset
Memecoins: a cryptocurrency that comes from an Internet meme or that has a humorous, ironic characteristic, a joke as its origin.
Each type of coin has its own characteristics and uses, but all rely on blockchain technology to operate in a decentralized manner. 10 minutes ago
Comment
Here is a list of the top altcoins, memecoins, and stablecoins to know in 2024:
Major Altcoins:
-Ethereum (ETH)
-Cardano (ADA)
-Solana (SOL)
-Polkadot (DOT)
-Ripple (XRP)
-Litecoin (LTC)
-Chainlink (LINK)
-Polygon (MATIC)
-Avalanche (AVAX)
-Tron (TRX)
Popular Memecoins:
-Dogecoin (DOGE)
-Shiba Inu (SHIB)
-Pepe (PEPE)
-Bonk (BONK)
-Book of Meme (BOME)
Top Stablecoins:
-Tether (USDT)
-USD Coin (USDC)
-Frax (FRAX)
-Dai (DAI)
-TrueUSD (TUSD)
-First Digital USD (FDUSD)
-Decentralized USD (USDD)
Altcoins are alternative cryptocurrencies to Bitcoin, often offering specific features or use cases.
Memecoins are cryptocurrencies that were initially created as jokes but have sometimes gained popularity.
Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to maintain a stable value, usually pegged to a fiat currency like the US dollar.
Each category has its own characteristics:
-Major altcoins often aim to solve specific problems or provide platforms for the development of decentralized applications.
-Memecoins are generally driven by their community and can experience high volatility.
-Stablecoins seek to offer the stability of traditional currencies while retaining the benefits of cryptocurrencies.
It is important to note that the cryptocurrency market is very dynamic and the popularity and value of these tokens can fluctuate rapidly
Trading Psychological Levels 101What are psychological levels?
🔸Psychological levels are price points in financial markets that hold significant meaning for traders and investors, mainly due to their simplicity and ease.
🔸Typically, these levels are round numbers, ending in 00 or halfway points like 50.
🔸With currency pairs, the exchange rate of 1.0” or parity is also a major psychological level.
🔸Traders tend to anchor their decisions around these levels, leading to increased buying and selling pressure when prices approach or surpass them.
How to Trade Psychological Levels
🔸Identify Key levels: The first step in incorporating psychological levels into your trading is to identify the key levels relevant to the financial instrument (e.g. currency pair) you are trading. This can be done by observing historical price action and noting round numbers where the price has previously shown significant reactions.
🔸Monitor Price Action: Keep a close eye on how the price behaves as it approaches a psychological level. Look for signs of increased price volatility, as this can indicate heightened interest from market participants.
🔸Set Entry and Exit Points: Once you have identified a psychological level and observed price action around it, use this information to set entry and exit points for your trades. For example, if the price has bounced off a psychological support level, you might enter a long position just above the level and set a stop loss slightly below it.
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Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The key to starting a trade is support and resistance points
Hello, traders.
If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly.
Please also click "Boost".
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As you study candles, you will learn about trend reversal sections.
Therefore, rather than learning the shapes or patterns of candles, when you study them, you will be able to see the support and resistance points and sections made up of the selling area and trend reversal sections in a big picture.
Therefore, rather than trying to memorize the shapes or arrangements of candles, it is important to see whether support and resistance points and sections are formed when such shapes, arrangements, and patterns appear.
The same goes for other studies related to charts.
-
As you study candles, you will find that what you have studied appears in the sections where candles are gathered.
These areas are drawn as horizontal lines to indicate support and resistance points.
However, objective information is needed to conduct trading on the horizontal lines drawn like this.
Otherwise, even the support and resistance points you drew will likely become useless lines if you conduct barrack trading because you don't trust them.
Be careful because your psychological state will interfere with analyzing the chart.
-
The easiest way to obtain this objective information is the Heikin Ashi chart and the Renko chart.
The Heikin Ashi chart and the Renko chart help you check the trend because they show fewer fakes and sweeps.
(Heikin Ashi chart)
(Renko chart)
Among these, you can immediately see that the Renko chart is a bit easier to find support and resistance points.
-
You can think of the points near the end of the blocks on the Renko chart as having strong support and resistance points.
Therefore, among the horizontal lines drawn on the chart above, the 2800.0 and 4000.0 points are the end points of three blocks, so they can be seen as strong support and resistance points.
If you change the Renko chart to a regular candle chart, you can clearly see that it will form support and resistance points or sections.
However, since the Renko chart changes the price in blocks, it is difficult to trade at this point.
Therefore, the Heikin Ashi chart or Renko chart is good to use when analyzing the chart, but it is difficult to trade.
-
To compensate for this, we created a horizontal line at the price position using indicators (StochRSI, OBV, CCI, RSI) that have been used for a long time.
The horizontal line connected to the current candle position plays the role of the current support and resistance point.
And, since the longer the horizontal line, the stronger the support and resistance role, you can see that it plays the role of support and resistance even if it is not connected to the current candle.
-
The support and resistance points drawn on the Heikin Ashi chart or Renko chart are difficult to use for trading, but you can easily check the support and resistance section by looking at only the 1D chart.
However, in order to display support and resistance points with a general candle chart, support and resistance points must be displayed on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts.
And, the order of charts with strong support and resistance is 1M > 1W > 1D charts.
-
When you look at the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts using the HA-MS indicator, horizontal lines like the above are displayed.
You can display them by changing the line type or line thickness to make them easier to see and then proceed with trading.
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The above content corresponds to the method of finding support and resistance points included in general chart-related books.
Of course, it is different from the explanation in the chart-related book, but I explained how to use indicators to more clearly indicate support and resistance points.
-
Even if you trade with the support and resistance points above, it will not work well when you actually trade.
This is because you are not familiar with the most important trading strategy in trading.
In conclusion, the most important thing is to create a trading strategy, rather than finding the support and resistance points explained above, looking at the trend line, or looking at indicators.
However, it is very difficult to create a trading strategy that fits your investment style from the beginning.
So, you should practice creating a trading strategy that suits you while trading based on the information of the objective chart.
In order to trade, you need to decide on the following three things:
1. Investment period
2. Investment size
3. Trading method and profit realization method
The above three things must be determined.
No. 1 and 2 are determined according to your investment style.
Therefore, it is recommended not to change No. 1 and 2 after you start trading.
3. Based on the information of the actual chart, the buy section, sell section, and stop loss point are determined.
In addition, the profit realization method can be determined according to the investment period.
The profit realization method is:
1. How to get cash profit
2. How to increase the coin (token) corresponding to the profit
There are methods 1 and 2 above.
-
In order to create a trading strategy, it is important to display all the information you want on the chart before starting the transaction.
If you do not, and then display lines on the chart after starting the transaction, psychological factors will be added and displayed, so the possibility of not trusting the lines drawn after starting the transaction increases.
To prevent this, it does not matter if you use the indicator added to the HA-MS indicator.
The reason is because it is objective information.
You should increase profits or reduce losses by adjusting the investment ratio while conducting the transaction using this objective information.
-
Have a good time.
Thank you.
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Trade Smart with TradingView’s Volume FootprintTradingView has just introduced an innovative feature on their charts known as the Volume Footprint . This tool represents a significant advancement in chart analysis, offering a detailed view of trading activity and volume at specific price levels. Are you interested in gaining an early advantage by becoming one of the initial traders to master this new tool ?
• I'm thrilled to share with you a fantastic new feature from TradingView : the Volume Footprint. This powerful charting tool gives us a visual representation of trading volume distribution across various price levels for each candle within a specified timeframe. It's a game-changer, offering deeper insights to help us pinpoint areas of high liquidity and significant trading activity.
• The Volume Footprint is available to those with Premium and higher-tier plans. It leverages data from multiple lower timeframes of the current symbol for historical calculations. Initially, it requests 1-second data, and once this is exhausted, it moves to the next higher timeframe. Consequently, as we delve further into history, the requested timeframe increases, which may reduce the accuracy of volume distribution.
• This tool determines whether trades are buy volumes or sell volumes by analyzing the direction of price movement. If the current bar closes higher than it opens, it's a buy volume. Conversely, if it closes lower, it's a sell volume. If the close equals the open, the volume direction follows that of the previous bar.
• One of the standout features of the Volume Footprint is its ability to identify market balance and imbalance. A balanced market indicates an equilibrium between supply and demand, resulting in stable prices. An imbalanced market, however, shows a significant disparity between supply and demand, leading to pronounced price movements.
• The Volume Footprint helps us understand market behavior, such as optimal entry points, potential price movements, and areas where supply and demand are balanced or imbalanced. It's an excellent tool for gauging market sentiment and spotting trading opportunities.
• Additionally, the Volume Footprint allows us to identify failed auctions. These occur when there's an unsuccessful attempt to set a new price, resulting in a return to previous price levels. Recognizing failed auctions can help us anticipate market reversals, validate support and resistance levels, and refine our trading strategies to capitalize on shifting market conditions.
• Another intriguing feature is Delta divergence, which refers to a discrepancy between price movement and the total delta value. Traders often use delta divergence in footprint charts to signal potential reversals or changes in market direction.
• Finally, the Volume Footprint lets us spot excess trades at extreme price levels. According to auction market theory, prices rise until demand dries up and fall until supply is exhausted. This is known as a completed auction. Sometimes, though, an incomplete auction occurs, where the volume of trades at the maximum or minimum price level differs slightly. This may indicate that the trend isn't complete, suggesting that prices might continue moving in the current direction until the auction concludes.
• In conclusion, the Volume Footprint is an invaluable tool that provides deep insights into market dynamics and trading opportunities. It's a fantastic addition to any trader’s toolkit, and I can't wait to explore and utilize this feature in my trading journey. Happy trading!
Prepared by : Arman Shaban
The Source : www.tradingview.com
Bitcoin vs. Ethereum: Deciphering the DistinctionsCryptocurrencies have revolutionized the financial landscape, with Bitcoin and Ethereum emerging as two prominent players shaping the digital economy. Despite sharing the common ground of blockchain technology, each offers distinct features and functionalities, underscoring the need to understand their differences.
Introduction to Bitcoin
Bitcoin, introduced in 2009 by the mysterious Satoshi Nakamoto, heralded the dawn of decentralized digital currencies. Its primary objective was to provide an alternative to traditional fiat currencies through a peer-to-peer electronic cash system. Transactions on the Bitcoin network are verified and recorded on an immutable public ledger, known as the blockchain.
Introduction to Ethereum
In 2015, Vitalik Buterin introduced Ethereum, presenting a paradigm shift beyond mere digital currency. Ethereum serves as an open-source platform for executing smart contracts and decentralized applications (DApps) without intermediaries. At its core is Ether (ETH), the native cryptocurrency powering transactions and fueling the ecosystem.
Core Differences
Purpose: Bitcoin functions primarily as a digital currency, aiming to revolutionize financial transactions. Ethereum, on the other hand, is a versatile platform enabling the execution of smart contracts and DApps, with broader implications for decentralization beyond monetary exchange.
Technology: Bitcoin operates on a Proof-of-Work (PoW) consensus mechanism, requiring significant computational power for transaction validation. Ethereum initially adopted PoW but is transitioning to Proof-of-Stake (PoS) with Ethereum 2.0, offering improved scalability and energy efficiency.
Scalability: Bitcoin processes approximately 7 transactions per second, while Ethereum can handle up to 30. Both face scalability challenges, with Ethereum exploring solutions like sharding to enhance throughput and efficiency.
Supply: Bitcoin has a fixed maximum supply of 21 million coins, creating scarcity akin to digital gold. In contrast, Ethereum does not have a predefined supply limit, potentially allowing for continuous production, albeit with economic implications.
Use Cases: Bitcoin is synonymous with a store of value, often likened to digital gold due to its limited supply and scarcity. Ethereum's versatility enables the creation of innovative applications such as decentralized finance (DeFi), non-fungible tokens (NFTs), decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs), and more, expanding its utility beyond monetary transactions.
Price Dynamics
Bitcoin's market movements often dictate the broader cryptocurrency landscape, impacting the prices of assets like Ethereum. Influencing factors include market sentiment, regulatory developments, and macroeconomic conditions. Ethereum's price dynamics are further influenced by platform upgrades, developer activity, and the burgeoning demand for decentralized applications.
Monthly Bitcoin Chart
Monthly Ethereum Chart
Conclusion
While Bitcoin and Ethereum share the foundation of blockchain technology, their purposes, technologies, and applications diverge significantly. Bitcoin seeks to redefine monetary exchange, while Ethereum aims to revolutionize contractual agreements and decentralized applications. Understanding these distinctions is paramount in navigating the evolving landscape of digital assets and harnessing their transformative potential in the global economy.
Ethereum Dencun Upgrade (1st Q 2024)Hello friends.
Today im going to explain some features of the next big Ethereum Upgrade called "Dencun"
Lets Deep into it.
The crypto world eagerly awaits Ethereum’s groundbreaking Dencun Upgrade, a massive undertaking by Ethereum developers that promises to reshape the course of the Ethereum network. Set to be introduced as a hard fork in the coming years, this upgrade brings a host of transformative changes that pave the way for a more scalable and efficient blockchain ecosystem.
One of the highly anticipated features of the Dencun Upgrade is Proto-Dank Sharding, also known as Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP-4844). This innovative enhancement sets its sights on addressing one of the key challenges faced by Ethereum: scalability. Proto-Dank Sharding introduces a new transaction type that incorporates data “blobs” unlocking additional storage capacity and reducing gas fees, particularly for layer 2 rollups. In simple terms, it can be likened to organizing luggage efficiently for a holiday trip. By optimizing data storage, Proto-Dank Sharding maximizes available space and minimizes unnecessary costs.
It’s important to note that the Dencun Upgrade is not a solitary effort. The term “Dencun” represents a combination of two simultaneous upgrades: “Cancun” at the execution layer and “Deneb” at the consensus layer. While Cancun focuses on executing protocol rules, Deneb ensures block validation. This comprehensive approach aims to maximize system efficiency, offering a guiding light for the future of the blockchain while considering the interests of stakeholders.
The Cancun segment includes five pivotal Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIPs) :
EIP-4844 (Proto-Danksharding) : Sets the stage for the full implementation of Danksharding, enhancing scalability.
EIP-1153 : Lowers the cost of on-chain data storage, optimizing block space.
EIP-4788 : Improves the structure of cross-chain bridges and stake pools.
EIP-5656 : Introduces minor code changes to the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM).
EIP-6780 : Removes SELFDESTRUCT, which is code that could potentially terminate smart contracts.
Key Benefits of Ethereum Cancun
Boosted Scalability : The introduction of Proto-Danksharding will facilitate a higher volume of transactions, processed at a quicker pace, enhancing Layer 2 solutions which operate atop the main blockchain.
Reduced Gas Fees : Through the utilization of data "blobs" and the implementation of EIP-4844, the upgrade aims to significantly cut down the gas fees, a move that will be particularly beneficial for Layer 2 solutions, making transactions more affordable.
Strengthened Security : The network's security infrastructure will be fortified, safeguarding user data and investments, thanks to initiatives like EIP-6780.
Efficient Data Storage : EIP-1153 is set to optimize data storage on the blockchain, fostering more efficient and cost-effective operations, which is a boon for Layer 2 solutions that rely on optimal data management.
Enhanced Cross-Chain Connectivity : The upgrade, through EIP-4788, promises smoother and more secure interactions between different blockchain networks, facilitating better integration with Layer 2 solutions.
Technical Innovations : With minor code modifications introduced through EIP-5656, the upgrade sets the stage for future technical advancements, potentially spurring innovation in Layer 2 solutions.
I hope you enjoy this article and pay attention to ETH in the next coming Bullrun :)
THANK YOU ALL
Refrences :
www.ethereum.org
www.medium.com
How To Use Total Market Cap ✨We can use Total Market Cap to analyse when it's best to go bullish or bearish on the crypto market. A growing market cap can indicate investors' interest and their positive evaluation of the current market state = bullish whereas a stagnant market cap would indicate that investors are taking their money away from the crypto market = bearish.
By analyzing the Total Crypto Market Cap weekly chart, we can see 5 clear waves to the downside, which means we are either in motive wave 1 or in wave A of a zigzag pattern.
For both cases, we are expecting an ABC correction opposite to the recent 5 waves. we have already completed subwave A and finishing now subwave B, expecting subwave C higher.
In a zigzag pattern ( 5-3-5) we have:
Wave A= 5 waves
Wave B = 3 waves
Wave C = 5 waves
Therefore, our mission for the long term is to catch the impulsive waves of wave C after wave B. But for now will be focusing on catching subwave C of wave B.
We will be using this chart as a guide for the other cryptocurrencies charts.
Stay tuned for more Crypto analysis!
Investing in CryptoThere are approximately 22,932 cryptocurrencies in existence.
The image above shows the hundreds of cryptocurrencies on TradingView's crypto coins heat map. Click here to interact with the heat map
With so many cryptocurrencies, how does one determine which, if any, are worth investing in?
In this post, I'll explain how I sorted through thousands of cryptocurrencies to identify a small handful that met my investing criteria. This is post is meant to be educational, but is not meant to be financial advice.
I began by using TradingView's crypto screener , shown below. I filtered out cryptocurrencies with a market cap of less than $100 million. In my opinion, cryptocurrencies with a market cap smaller than $100 million are too volatile and illiquid to safely invest or trade. Assets with a such small market cap can also be prone to price manipulation. The low volume and illiquid conditions also tend to result in poor-quality charting data.
I analyzed the charts of over 200 cryptocurrencies with a market cap of over $100 million. To account for the possibility that a cryptocurrency under the $100 million market cap was growing fast enough to eventually become a candidate, I re-screened all the cryptocurrencies by market cap at a second point in time (6 months later). I also performed both screenings during the current crypto bear market when fewer new cryptocurrencies were coming into existence. I observed that most cryptocurrencies decayed in value relative to the U.S. dollar.
When an asset decays in value relative to the U.S. dollar this generally means that the market believes the asset is becoming worthless. Since the majority of the most highly capitalized cryptocurrencies were decaying in price over time, I assumed that lesser capitalized cryptocurrencies were also decaying in price relative to the U.S. dollar. Therefore, I concluded that most cryptocurrencies are becoming worthless over time.
To objectively determine whether or not an asset is decaying relative to the U.S. dollar one can apply a regression channel to the entire price history of the asset. If the channel is downsloping, then the asset is decaying in value as time passes.
The chart above shows an example of a cryptocurrency that has decayed in value relative to the U.S. dollar. Most cryptocurrencies decay in value relative to the U.S. dollar. (Note: Although the denominator is Tether the chart has been adjusted to USD.)
Although most cryptocurrencies decay in value over time, dozens of cryptocurrencies move up in value relative to the U.S. dollar over time (and have an upsloping regression channel). For these high-performing cryptocurrencies, I then used relative strength analysis to determine the best investing candidates.
For each cryptocurrency that had a market cap of over $100 million and that had an upsloping regression channel relative to the U.S. dollar over its entire existence, I analyzed the cryptocurrency relative to Bitcoin to see if it outperformed. If the cryptocurrency decayed over time relative to Bitcoin (downsloping regression channel), I removed it from my list because I concluded that it would be better to just invest in Bitcoin. Although I excluded crypto that underperformed Bitcoin, I could not reach the conclusion that crypto that outperformed Bitcoin was worth investing in until I first validated the conclusion that Bitcoin itself was worth investing in.
While a quick glance at the price history of Bitcoin, as shown below, may convince many people that Bitcoin is worth investing in, I needed an objective, evidence-based, and mathematical method to determine whether Bitcoin is a wealth-building asset or merely a speculative bubble. Fortunately, chart analysis can help us infer if an asset is a speculative bubble or actually wealth-building over the long term.
In a prior post, I explained that from a conceptual standpoint, a wealth-building asset is one that expands the investor's purchasing power over time. In order to do this, a wealth-building asset generally must move up in price over time faster than the rate at which the money supply expands. In general, only assets that are perpetually scarce or that are increasingly productive can overcome this difficult hurdle to be classified as a wealth-building asset. To learn more about why an asset must outperform the growth rate of the money supply in order to be wealth-building, you can check out my post below.
Therefore, in order to test whether or not Bitcoin is a wealth-building asset over the long term (years and decades), I compared Bitcoin against the money supply. What I found was surprising.
The above chart compares the market cap of Bitcoin to the U.S. money supply (M1).
I found that the market cap of Bitcoin was forming an apparent bull flag to the U.S. money supply (M1) on the yearly chart. Not only is a bull flag apparently forming, but the bull flag structure is apparently a perfect golden ratio.
To learn more about golden ratio bull flag structures and why they can be quite significant, you can check out my post below about advanced bull flag concepts.
I decided to delve deeper. This time I measured Bitcoin against the money supply on a lower timeframe and using a longer lookback period. I found that the total market cap of Bitcoin as a ratio to the money supply was moving in an apparent logistic growth curve . Although it is generally well-known that Bitcoin moves in a logistic growth curve to the U.S. dollar, it is not generally well-known that Bitcoin's market cap is also moving in the same logistic growth pattern relative to the money supply.
The chart above shows the total market cap of Bitcoin moving in an apparent logistic growth curve relative to the money supply. The pink line at the top is the value 1, and it represents a horizontal asymptote (the highest possible value that can be reached). Bitcoin's market cap can only go as high as the total supply of money. As Bitcoin's market cap approaches the total supply of money, further growth becomes increasingly inhibited because there is a decreasing amount of money left that can be converted into Bitcoin so as to push its price up further.
It is thus not possible for the total market cap of Bitcoin to exceed the total supply of money. In other words, when measured in U.S. dollars, the total value of 21 million Bitcoin can only ever be as high as the total global supply of U.S. dollars. Although the money supply tends to increase over time, the total market cap of Bitcoin as a ratio to the money supply can only ever reach 1.
Since the inhibiting factor of the growth of Bitcoin's market cap is the money supply then what this means on a conceptual level is that Bitcoin's logistic growth is actually a mathematical indication that Bitcoin is replacing the money supply. In essence, by forming a logistic growth curve to the U.S. money supply, we can infer that Bitcoin is displacing, if not outright replacing, the U.S. dollar. If you would like more scientific evidence that Bitcoin conforms to a logistic growth function, you can check out this research article .
It is not unusual that Bitcoin's price action appears as a logistic growth curve. Logistic growth curves characterize many types of replacement processes in nature. For example, each time a new variant of COVID-19 emerged, it replaced the previous variant through logistic growth, which can be shown in a chart of the relative prevalence of COVID-19 variants over time.
The chart above shows the "S-curve" or sigmoid pattern that characterizes logistic growth. Variants of COVID-19 vying for hosts to infect is reflected as a logistic growth race among circulating and emerging variants. In many ways, this competition among virus variants is analogous to the competition of cryptocurrencies: Each cryptocurrency competes with existing and emerging cryptocurrencies to form a logistic growth curve relative to the U.S. dollar, thereby challenging its market dominance. A small subset of cryptocurrencies are so competitive that they also form a logistic growth curve relative to Bitcoin, which reflects their attempt to replace even Bitcoin's market dominance.
The final step I took in analyzing cryptocurrency for investing potential was to detect which, if any, cryptocurrencies were moving in logistic growth not only to the U.S. dollar but also to Bitcoin. If one can detect an asset that will move in a logistic growth curve to Bitcoin early on, the extent of wealth that can be built is extraordinary.
Below are a couple of examples of the relative strength analyses I performed.
Bitcoin vs. Bitcoin Cash
The above chart shows a downsloping regression channel, indicating that Bitcoin Cash decays in value relative to Bitcoin over time. Therefore, Bitcoin is a better long-term investment than Bitcoin Cash.
Bitcoin vs. Ethereum
In the chart above, one can see that when compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum produces an upsloping regression channel. Since the Pearson correlation coefficient is quite low and since Ethereum was unable to reach a higher high relative to Bitcoin in the current halving cycle, the relative strength of Ethereum and Bitcoin are indeterminate. In light of this, I decided that investing in both Bitcoin and Ethereum could allow me to diversify and lower the risk of investing in only one of the two.
Aside from Bitcoin and Ethereum, in a follow-up post, I'll reveal which other 3 cryptocurrencies I currently invest in. One of them may be a surprise to many. Feel free to leave a comment below indicating which cryptocurrencies you think should be in the top 5 long-term investing candidates.
In conclusion, the analysis above shows that, to a reasonably high degree of certainty, cryptocurrency (Bitcoin specifically) is challenging the current monetary system in ways that it has not been challenged before. It is my belief that cryptocurrency is the next step in the evolution of human financial markets. It builds the infrastructure for a monetary system that equips humans with more efficient transactions within digital spaces. While the Bitcoin blockchain is far from perfect and is heavily reliant on non-renewable energy consumption, it solves many of the inefficiencies that financial systems have been unable to solve for millennia.
If you enjoyed this post, I would greatly appreciate it if you leave a boost! If you have any questions or would like to share your thoughts, feel free to leave them in the comments below. In a future post, I plan to explain why cryptocurrency's displacement of existing monetary systems is becoming increasingly inevitable due to the proliferation of DeFi protocols.
Important Disclaimer
Nothing in this post should be considered financial advice. Trading and investing always involve risks and one should carefully review all such risks before making a trade or investment decision. Do not buy or sell any security based on anything in this post. Past results do not guarantee future returns. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile. Never borrow money or use margin to invest in cryptocurrency. Cryptocurrency is not backed or insured by any authority and is therefore a high-risk asset class. You can lose all or some of your money in cryptocurrency. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any financial decisions. This post is for educational purposes only.
Driving Forces Behind Cryptocurrencies' VolatilityIn the ever-evolving realm of modern finance, the emergence of cryptocurrencies has catalyzed a seismic shift, captivating the imagination of investors and traders alike. Since the inception of Bitcoin in 2009, the cryptocurrency market has experienced an unprecedented surge, leading to a proliferation of digital assets, each with its own unique characteristics and potential applications.
However, amid the exhilarating highs and gut-wrenching lows, the cryptocurrency market's intrinsic volatility has left many pondering the enigmatic forces that propel its wild fluctuations. This article embarks on a comprehensive exploration of the fundamental drivers that propel the volatile universe of cryptocurrencies, providing an in-depth analysis of the intricate interplay between a myriad of elements that influence prices and sentiment.
From the far-reaching impact of macroeconomic factors and regulatory dynamics to the revolutionary power of technological advancements and the sway of market sentiment, a complex tapestry of influences collectively shapes the turbulent journey of digital currencies. As the global financial ecosystem grapples with the ongoing evolution of this nascent asset class, acquiring an intimate understanding of these pivotal factors becomes a cornerstone for investors, traders, and enthusiasts navigating this dynamic landscape.
Diving into the Cryptocurrency Mosaic
Cryptocurrencies have transcended their origin with Bitcoin to establish a vibrant and diverse ecosystem of digital assets. Each cryptocurrency possesses a distinct set of attributes, use cases, and underlying technologies, intricately weaving into the intricate fabric of the market.
Broadly categorized, cryptocurrencies fall into two primary groups: coins and tokens. Coins like Bitcoin, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash are engineered to facilitate transactions and serve as alternatives to conventional currencies. In contrast, crypto tokens are constructed atop existing blockchain platforms, such as Ethereum, fulfilling functions like governance and ecosystem transactions.
Furthermore, the consensus mechanisms employed by cryptocurrencies contribute to their diversity. The proof-of-work (PoW) mechanism, utilized by Bitcoin and others, relies on mining for transaction validation. Conversely, the proof-of-stake (PoS) mechanism, exemplified by Ethereum and Cosmos, leverages validators to confirm transactions, enhancing energy efficiency and scalability.
Decrypting Cryptocurrency Volatility
Volatility is an intrinsic characteristic of cryptocurrencies, fueled by a confluence of influential factors:
Limited Liquidity: With trading volumes and market capitalization often lower than traditional assets, even modest buy or sell orders can generate substantial price fluctuations.
Speculative Nature: Cryptocurrencies are frequently viewed as speculative instruments, leading to price movements driven by market sentiment, hype, and speculative behavior, rather than fundamental analysis.
Regulatory Ambiguity: As a relatively nascent and lightly regulated market, regulatory developments can trigger abrupt price shifts as investors respond to changes or uncertainties in the legal landscape.
Sentiment Swings: Market sentiment, shaped by events like security breaches or regulatory announcements, can exert considerable influence on cryptocurrency prices.
Manipulation Vulnerability: Due to limited oversight and liquidity in certain markets, cryptocurrencies are susceptible to manipulation by sizable holders, leading to price distortions.
Technological Factors: Technical vulnerabilities or glitches can prompt swift price fluctuations as investors react to perceived risks associated with the underlying technology.
Adoption and Utilization: The practical adoption and use cases of cryptocurrencies significantly influence their value. Currencies with tangible utility and real-world applications tend to garner heightened interest and market support.
Supply and Demand: The fundamental economics of supply and demand guide cryptocurrency prices. Scarce supply coupled with growing demand can propel prices upward.
Macroeconomic Influences: Broader macroeconomic factors, encompassing inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical events, can channel investor attention toward cryptocurrencies as alternative investment vehicles or stores of value.
Influential Figures' Statements: Public endorsements or criticisms from influential figures exert considerable impact on cryptocurrency prices, shaping market perceptions and behavior.
Conclusion
As cryptocurrencies reshape the financial landscape, delving into the driving forces behind their volatility is essential for navigating this dynamic market. From the inception of Bitcoin to the kaleidoscope of digital assets that now flourish, the cryptocurrency market is characterized by its rollercoaster-like price oscillations.
This article has undertaken a comprehensive exploration of the key factors influencing this volatile realm. Regulatory shifts, market sentiment, technological advancements, hacking incidents, and supply-demand dynamics all converge to define cryptocurrency movements. Understanding these multifaceted influences empowers investors, traders, and enthusiasts to navigate the unpredictability of the crypto landscape with poise and informed decision-making.
While cryptocurrencies promise transformation, their journey is marked by rapid evolution and maturation. As the landscape continues to evolve, maintaining vigilance and adaptability remains pivotal. Regardless of your vantage point, comprehending these factors empowers you to seize opportunities and surmount challenges in the captivating realm of digital assets.
Trading Lesson 👨💻#1 - Never buy At the peak high.Not worth it I tell you.
Never buy at the peak high.
Always buy at the peak low.
When ever you see a peak in the day of trading and you had a major rise in price due to things such as rallies or market seasonal up trends, or 🐳 it's moving up and you don't want to miss it. However; you buy in on the rush up-word believing it's safe to assume things will be greater tomorrow, so you wait to see this awesome rally to the top to make it rich.
The day closes and the reopens, with a rise and then sudden fall in the crypto market - all that hype only to be disappointed when you notice somethings off; your funds are 💸floating away in mere moments. So naturally you panic believing that you are in a complete crash - and assume it's the fault of the stock you purchased, but more over it was the fault of the bad call - with bad timing, so you panic sell thinking it will only get worse, and in some cases it does get worse but in others cases that sell you just made would be a mistake in judgement as the price goes back up from where you sold leaving you behind with the lost funds to ponder over.
This is what I call "fools gold"
Never buy at the peak on after a closing day.
reason being you may on the next day after a rally up-word, you notice the price move up higher for like a moment prompting you to buy, thinking that the rally is still going, however; not realizing that was the last call before the fall.
So the best thing to do in these type of situations is to:
_______________________
Don't Buy In
Safer to study your target market before you buy and wait for the closing day, so that it can either adjust the price to where it really is vs where it currently is. if it drops wait till the closing day again until you feel you have the best price to turn a profit. Note - pay attention for market trends it could be going up which is good or falling down which is still good for you because you didn't lose any money, so best to study before you buy on a hype.
_______________________
Hold
Wait until the next closing day to see where it might lead - this will keep your shares you already purchased and if you need to add more funds to regain what you lost when the price is lower than expected, it will likely turn what was a lost to a gain when the price returns to where you originally purchased.
_______________________
Sell
The worse thing you can do is Sell unless you can catch the drop in price before it takes too much profit to recover from, you will likely try again losing more money and again, and again, and again - creating what is known as panic buying and selling, if you had deep pockets it might cause the market to completely drop based off the factor of you panic selling, no need to do so you have a day to find out where the market for your crypto is headed before you sell, so best to work fast or lose more funds wasting time.
Focus and don't risk what you are not willing to lose, and for your own sake if you are a panic seller, never day trade, you'll lose more money that way.
_______________________
Best Tools to use
Notice the market trends on the charts before you buy, was it going up throughout a one month process if so then it's a likelihood it's in a seasonal high, it's sometimes hard to tell if it's moving up or down just by looking at charts, so you will definitely need proper indicators to help identify your next move.
Indicators like:
Volume to price
or
trend activity
Not chart savvy, then find a predictor of your current crypto you purchased.
Look for people on places like trading view who have the tools and or knowledge to tell you the trading trends - note not all of them are accurate - not even some websites that offer predictions for your favorite stock or crypto are accurate either, they are usually 40% accurate 60% inaccurate and 99% bias.
That's just my opinion - however; they can not predict Rallies - Whaling activity - or - the entire stock market fallout/rise - anything can happen so be prepared it can take months if not years to recover or it could take a few weeks if you know what the future may bring.
But remember:
Don't try to buy in at the tip of a peak.
It's guaranteed to drop instantly the next trading day.
Hope this helps.
Happy trading.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC
BINANCE:BTCUSDT
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
CRYPTOCAP:ETH
BINANCE:ETHUSDT
CRYPTOCAP:SHIB
BINANCE:SHIBUSDT
COINBASE:SHIBUSD
#CRYPTO
#ALTCOIN
#EVERYCOIN
#RALLIES-WE-LOVE-THEM
#HELP-WITH-A-RALLY
#NEED-WHALE-SUPPORT
#STOP-THE-DIP
Rising wedgeA rising wedge in an up trend is usually considered a reversal pattern. This pattern is at the end of a bullish wave, by creating close price tops, shows us that the supply has intensified and there is a possibility of a trend change. Of course, nothing is certain and if the buyers are more willing and strong, this pattern may be broken in the direction of the market rise.
A rising wedge in the middle of a downtrend, is considered a corrective move and is known as a continuing pattern. For example, take a look at the above chart of Ethereum on the weekly time frame
How you can make 6 figures a month using prop fundsFirstly you need to be able to acquire one account such as a 100k account. Assuming your target is $110000 you start by risking $500 a trade until you reach $3000. if you take losses you continue risking the same until you're back at the starting point. once you reach $3000 of profit you now up your risk to $1000 until you get to $6000 and then $2000. This should easily allow you to pass phase 1 of the challenge, you then repeat the same for phase 2.
Once you receive your first funded account, you are now going to purchase another challenge and copy trade your funded account (master acc) onto the challenge. Repeating the above and considering you have a strategy with a good win rate, you are now able to make money while passing the challenges without having to trade 2 accounts manually. You continue this process and max your funding with one prop fund, and then move on to a second and so on until you have 7 figures in funding under your belt.
The key is to remain focused and have your psychology and mindset on point. making a mistake on your master account is going to reflect on all accounts. The same goes with profits however. If you have 1 mill in funding and make 1% in a week on one of your 100k accounts, then the other 9 will also make 1% bringing you to a total of 10% ($100000) in one week.
My favourite prop fund atm is properfunded.com
Unlocking the Power of Volume: Combining Volume with TAIn our previous blog posts, we explored the importance of volume analysis in understanding indicators that can be used for volume analysis. Today, we'll delve deeper into how combining volume analysis with technical analysis can provide valuable insights for traders and investors alike. We will do so by laying out a strategy that anyone can use that will utilize volume.
The Significance of Volume in Technical Analysis
We have previously discussed how volume plays a crucial role in technical analysis. It is essential to examine volume patterns alongside price action, as it helps traders determine liquidity and identify potential trading opportunities. When combined with technical indicators, volume offers a more comprehensive view of market activity and can enhance decision-making in trading.
Indicators to Combine with Volume Analysis
Here are some popular technical indicators that traders can use in conjunction with volume analysis:
1. Moving Averages
Moving averages (MAs) are one of the most widely used technical indicators, as they help traders identify trends and potential support and resistance levels. The two most commonly used moving averages are simple moving averages (SMA) and exponential moving averages (EMA). We'll use a short-term EMA (e.g., 9-day EMA) and a long-term EMA (e.g., 21-day EMA) for a strategy later in this post.
2. Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. It ranges from 0 to 100, with readings below 30 indicating oversold conditions and readings above 70 indicating overbought conditions. The RSI can help traders identify potential trend reversals and entry/exit points.
The Strategy That Incorporates Volume
1. Identify Trend Direction
First, apply the 9-day EMA(shown in white) and the 21-day EMA(shown in purple) to your price chart. The trend direction is determined by the relationship between the two moving averages:
Uptrend: The 9-day EMA is above the 21-day EMA
Downtrend: The 9-day EMA is below the 21-day EMA
Sideways: The moving averages are intertwined, with no clear direction
2. Confirm Trend Strength with RSI
Apply the RSI to your chart, and use the 30 and 70 levels as reference points:
For uptrends, look for the RSI to stay above 30 and preferably above 50.
For downtrends, look for the RSI to stay below 70 and preferably below 50.
3. Analyze Trading Volume
Compare the volume levels during the trend to the average volume over a specific period of your choosing using your desired volume indicator (see previous post on volume indicators). If the volume is above average during the trend or is rising, it confirms its strength. Conversely, a decreasing volume may signal a weakening trend or a potential reversal.
4. Entry and Exit Points
Long Entry: In an uptrend, look for the RSI to pull back below 50, and then cross back above it. Confirm the entry with increasing trading volume. This indicates a potential buying opportunity.
Short Entry: In a downtrend, look for the RSI to pull back above 50 and then cross back below it. Confirm the entry with increasing trading volume. This indicates a potential selling opportunity.
Exit Points: Use the moving averages as trailing stop-loss levels. For long positions, exit when the 9-day EMA crosses below the 21-day EMA. For short positions, exit when the 9-day EMA crosses above the 21-day EMA.
Practical Tips for Combining Volume with Technical Analysis
Here are some practical tips for effectively integrating volume analysis with technical indicators:
1. Use Multiple Timeframes
Analyze volume patterns and technical indicators across different timeframes to identify potential trends and reversals more accurately. We always recommend a top-down time frame approach, starting at higher time frames and working down to your desired time frame for entries.
2. Look for Volume Confirmation
When a technical indicator signals a potential trading opportunity, confirm it with volume analysis to ensure the move is supported by strong market activity.
3. Monitor Divergences
Divergences between volume and price action can signal potential trend reversals or continuations. Keep an eye on these discrepancies to make informed trading decisions.
Conclusion:
Combining volume analysis with technical indicators can help traders and investors make more informed decisions about market trends and potential trading opportunities. By understanding the relationship between volume and price action and incorporating this knowledge with technical analysis, traders can unlock powerful insights and enhance their overall trading strategy.
Volume Indicators: Using Indicators to Analyze VolumeIn our last post we discussed how volume plays a crucial role in financial trading, providing insights into the strength of price movements and overall market sentiment. Volume indicators are essential tools for traders, helping them make informed decisions based on market activity. In this blog post, we will dive deep into the world of volume indicators, discussing their importance and exploring the best indicators available for analyzing volume in day trading. We will also provide practical examples of how these indicators can be used to enhance trading strategies.
The Importance of Volume Indicators
Volume indicators can reveal the level of interest in a financial instrument, showing how many shares, contracts, or lots are being bought or sold within a specific time frame . By analyzing volume, traders can better understand the market's momentum and identify potential breakouts, reversals, and areas of support or resistance. Volume indicators can also help traders detect bullish or bearish divergences, where price movements and volume are not aligned, indicating a possible trend reversal.
Top Volume Indicators
a. Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
VWAP is a popular volume indicator that calculates the average price of a financial instrument, weighted by volume. It is often used as a benchmark by institutional traders to gauge the efficiency of their trades. VWAP can help traders identify trends and potential entry and exit points, particularly for intraday trading.
b. Volume-Weighted Moving Average (VWMA)
Like VWAP, VWMA assigns more importance to periods with higher volume by calculating a moving average that incorporates volume data. VWMA can be used to confirm trends, as a rising VWMA in an uptrend or a declining VWMA in a downtrend shows that volume is supporting the price movement.
c. Money Flow Index (MFI)
MFI is an oscillator that measures the inflow and outflow of money into a financial instrument over a specific time frame. It combines both price and volume data, providing insights into buying and selling pressure. MFI can help traders identify overbought or oversold conditions, as well as potential trend reversals.
d. Accumulation and Distribution Indicator
This indicator measures the cumulative flow of money into and out of a financial instrument, helping traders identify accumulation (buying) and distribution (selling) phases. A rising Accumulation and Distribution indicator suggests strong buying pressure, while a falling indicator signals strong selling pressure.
e. Klinger Oscillator
The Klinger Oscillator is a volume-based indicator designed to predict long-term trends by comparing short-term and long-term volume flows. It can help traders confirm price movements and detect potential trend reversals.
f. On-Balance Volume (OBV)
OBV is a simple but effective volume indicator that calculates the cumulative volume, adding the day's volume when the price closes higher and subtracting it when the price closes lower. OBV can help traders identify trends and potential breakouts by comparing price movements with volume data.
Applying Volume Indicators in Trading
When using volume indicators, it is important to remember that they should be used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools and price action analysis. By combining volume indicators with other technical indicators and chart patterns, traders can develop comprehensive strategies for trading breakouts, reversals, and identifying areas of support and resistance.
Conclusion
Understanding volume and incorporating volume indicators into trading strategies is essential for traders looking to make informed decisions in the financial markets. By using a combination of indicators such as VWAP, VWMA, MFI, Accumulation and Distribution, Klinger Oscillator, and OBV, traders can better analyze market activity and develop effective trading strategies.
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Trading Success Through Journaling: Reflect, Learn & GrowHello traders, today we will talk about how journaling can be a really helpful tool for you in your trading journey. Journaling is a simple yet powerful tool that can help you gain insight into your mental and emotional state, identify patterns and triggers, and make more informed decisions. In this post, we'll explore how you can use journaling to improve your trading performance.
1. Reflect on your emotions: After each trade, take a moment to journal about your emotions during and after the trade. This can help you identify patterns in your emotional responses and provide insight into how certain emotions may affect your trading decisions.
2. Identify triggers: By journaling about specific events that preceded a trade, you can identify the triggers that lead to your emotional responses. This can help you take steps to manage your emotions before they affect your trading decisions.
3. Evaluate your decision-making: After each trade, take a moment to journal about the decision-making process you used. This can help you identify any biases or patterns in your decision-making that may be affecting your trading results.
4. Set goals and track progress: Use journaling to set goals for your trading and track your progress over time. This can help you stay motivated and focused on your long-term goals.
5. Increase self-awareness: Journaling can help you become more self-aware of your thoughts, feelings, and behaviors. This can help you identify any negative thought patterns and work to change them, which can lead to improved trading performance.
To make the most of journaling, you should be honest with yourself and write down what you truly feel and think. Journaling is a powerful tool for reflection, learning and making adjustments for the future.
It's important to note that journaling is not a standalone strategy, but rather it's a tool that can be used in conjunction with other analysis and indicators to inform trading decisions. Also, you don't need any specific equipment, just a pen and a notebook, and you can journal at any time.
In conclusion, journaling can be a powerful tool for traders looking to improve their performance and manage stress. By gaining insight into their mental and emotional state, traders can make more informed decisions and improve their overall trading results. Give it a try and see how it can help you in your trading journey.
I would love to hear about your own experiences with journaling in trading. Please feel free to share your thoughts, feedback, and tips in the comments section below. Your input and feedback is valuable to me and to the trading community!
You don't know how to manage your portfolioI had a talk with my mentor earlier today, and we talked about how we each calculate the signal for our allocation towards ETH compared to BTC.
It got me thinking that a lot of people actually aren't aware of why they allocate capital to different assets in the same class!
Case in an upwards trend
When the trend is up and you want to maximize your returns in crypto, with the least amount of risk... What do you do?
Well, you know that alts are higher beta (they move more than BTC), but you don't know when BTC will alts...
In the case for my conservative portfolio I only hold ETH and BTC, but how do I allocate between them?
What I first and foremost do is look at the dominance chart for BTC:
Here we see the dominance of BTC going down a lot, this is while the market is up (between 18th of jan 2021 and 19th of may 2021)
The TPI informed us about the entire trend for the dominance chart. What you do in this scenario is now determine how much ETH you hold relative to BTC in this period (in your conservative portfolio)
Open the ETH/BTC chart (I use binance personally)
In this period we see ETH outperforming BTC a lot!
When the TPI is bullish for the ETH/BTC pair, it means that ETH is likely to outperform BTC, how did that prediction go?
As BTC dominance falls, and we see strength in ETH compared to BTC, we have a higher allocation towards ETH.
But Omar, how do I quantize the amount of ETH compared to BTC?
No one asked, but I will answer still:
The TPI gives values between -1 and 1, I normalize these values between 0-1 for the ETH/BTC pair, where 0 is 0% allocation and 1 is 100% allocation towards ETH:
Equation for normalization:
minValue = 0
maxValue = 1
(TPI - minValue) / (maxValue - minValue) => (TPI - 0) / (1- 0)
Since the TPI had been bearish with a TPI value at -1 for ETH/BTC since the 13th of march, 100% of my conservative portfolio is in BTC!
Case in a downwards trend
The method is the same, but reversed!
When we look to maximize our returns on a short we want to short the asset that is underperforming!
ETH was underperforming BTC by a large portion during the LUNA drama:
This means most of the conservative portfolio was short ETH, rather than BTC
Quite simple, but very effective!
In conclusion
I want you to ask your self, why am I allocating x% of my capital towards this asset (long or short), and is my allocation optimal?
If you can't answer these two questions, then you probably need to look at your system
Numbers don't lie, this method works!
The TPI is truly the holy grail for a swing trader who wants to use statistics and data to maximize their returns and minimize their risk!
Kind regards
Omar
I've linked an idea below from a dear friend of mine (much bigger than on this platform) who has marked out crutial levels for the altcoin market based on what the FED will do, give it a watch!
🟢Support🟢 & 🔴Resistance🔴 in TradingView Land !!!👨🏫Hello, guys🤪; I'm Pejman, and today we will change the regular TradingView to TradingView Disneyland🎡 . I want to tell the story of Snow White and the trader dwarfs.
Once upon a time🌞, in the kingdom👑 of Stocktopia, there was a young princess👰♂️ named Snow White Charts. She was the heir to the realm of Stocktopia. Still, unlike her father, the King of Stocktopia, a successful businessman🧔, Princess needed help understanding the stock market. She often lost money💸.
One day, while walking in the forest🌿🌲, Princess Snow White Charts stumbled upon an old house called Dwarf traders. She became curious and decided to visit this house🏠.
Dwarves lived in this house🏠 whose job was to help the traders. They directed the price of different stocks by creating support and resistance lines or zones, and each dwarf was responsible for one of them.
The Princess did not know anything about these lines. So she decided to stay to learn about these powerful lines.
One of these dwarves, named Doc, looked older and wiser than the other dwarves. The Princess enlisted the help of Doc to learn how these lines worked.
Doc was proficient in various methods of technical analysis and had an exceptional talent for simplifying complex issues😝. So he tried to teach these lines to the Princess👰♂️ in the simplest and best way possible.
If you also want to master technical analysis like Doc before learning support and resistance lines/zones, read the following post to learn what technical analysis is. 🤓👇
Doc showed the following picture to the Princess.
Can you tell what the role of support lines is before reading Doc's explanation❓👇
As you can see in the picture, the candles are placed in a downward trend, and they go down🔴 like playful children🧒🧒 playing on the slide.
Doc explained that support lines are like a bouncy castle🕍 for price. When the candles reach these Lines, they'll push them up just like a trampoline; the price will grow.
Remember that they prevent the price from moving too far down or falling.😅 The candles are safe on the support lines, so Sleepy sleeps peacefully.
Doc believes that when a stock's price hits support lines, it can indicate a potential buying opportunity. Still, when it breaks down🔴 the support line, it can show a possible selling opportunity; but I will discuss this in the following.
Now you may ask, what are resistance lines❓ The exact same question came up for Princess Snow White Charts😁.
First, look at the chart below.👇
Resistance lines are like the roof of a bouncy castle. In an uptrend🟢, when the candles are happy and constantly jumping higher and higher, the resistance lines prevent them from going further.
The resistance line is guarded by Goupy, who pushes the candles down🔴 like a bully, whenever the candles hit the resistance line.
Let's suppose all these price lines & dwarfs want to lead candles in a particular direction.
Now that you are familiar with support and resistance lines, you might have the same question as Princess👰♂️had again. How to recognize and find these lines❓
According to Doc, there are several ways to find these lines:
Past Price Data:
Sir John says: "Price data is like a roadmap, showing you where the market has been and where it might be heading."
Looking at past price data is like checking the tracks of a criminal. It may be seen, but it is simply not correct. You can know how he behaved in the past because he may repeat the same behavior in the future.
So, to better understand the price, you must also know its past. Even Philip Fisher also believes that: "Price data is the lens through which we can see the market's true nature."
Previous Lines:
By finding previous support and resistance lines, it's as if you've found a criminal's 🔫 recorded files.
Price data is the story of the market, and those who ignore it are doomed to repeat their mistakes. You can't predict the future without understanding the past, and the market's past performance is the best indicator of its future performance.
Wow, speak of the devil🤐, I forgot that indicators also have important points to say too.
Indicators:
Maybe price data is like a roadmap🚨 or past lines like a criminal recorded file. But indicators are like GPS.
Indicators are the GPS of the financial markets, and they guide us to our destination and help us avoid getting lost.
Indicators are the financial markets' fingerprints, revealing the underlying patterns and trends.
Doc and I found some indicators helpful in identifying supply(resistance) and demand(support) zones, such as:
Moving Average/Parabolic SAR/Bollinger Bands/Ichimoku Kinko Hyo/Fibonacci/Pivot point
There are many ways to recognize these lines and even indicators that help you find them like an assistant, but you should still try to know and learn them yourself.
For example, Doc says there are additional support and resistance lines. Like the slides in the game, they can be straight or sloping, going up🟢 or down🔴. I'm kidding, but they really have these types 🙂.
In the previous pictures, I showed you only static lines. Now, look at the pictures below because I will show you all the types of these lines with examples.
For example, if the support and resistance lines are like a road🛣 on the ground, they are called static support and resistance lines .
Now, what if this road turns into steep ropes❓ Well, it is known that they are called dynamic support and resistance lines .
For example, if you want to go mountain🗻 climbing, it is as if you are climbing with dynamic support. In general, in an upward🟢 trend, dynamic support lines like a ramp🚧 prevent the price from falling.
Now that we are talking about climbing let's introduce another game🎲. The zipline🤐😄.
The price decreases from the dynamic resistance lines like a zipline in downward🔴 trends. 😄
I must say that theoretically, the price will go down after hitting the dynamic resistance lines and these lines prevent price growth🟢.
Dynamic resistance or support is also called a trend line. Trendlines are helpful in many parts of technical analysis, such as classical patterns.
Just take a look at the below post. You will find that trend lines help us effectively identify these patterns or trade with them. That's how I am! COOL!😎😎.👇
Don't worry and don't rush because, as said: Patience is bitter, but its fruit is sweet.
Soon I will teach all these patterns in future posts, but we have to go step by step together.😎😎😎
But I must add that the price is also very playful😛. The price may cross these lines, be above the resistance or below the support, and escape from them.
"If price can make a credible breakout, this could be a good place to trade and make some sweet dollars," Doc whispered to Princess Snow White Charts.
What is a valid breakout❗️❓
This was the question that arose in the Princess's 👰 mind, and I think it is your question as well.
Imagine that the resistance line is like a prison that confines the candles. A diligent & playful candle needs the support of buyers to escape from this prison. If the buyers support it, it can get out of this prison.
After escaping the breakout candle, if another candle, called the confirmation, escapes from this prison and jumps above the breakout candle, the way will be clear for other prisoners, and they can run. So a valid breakout will happen.
A valid breakout is created with a strong candle called a breakout candle(such as the Marubozu candle); after that, a candle as a confirmation candle will confirm this breakout.
Don't worry about selling below the Support line or buying above the resistance line. If a valid breakout has occurred, the target stock will decrease/rise further, and the trend will not stop or end anytime soon.
Let's walk through an example of a valid breakout with Doc.
As you can see, the price broke this line with a strong candle and made a confirmation candle. As a result, we consider this a valid breakout.
If you have noticed, finally, the price went back to this line to greet the previous line. This movement is called Pullback .
In general, to say that a breakout is valid, there are several conditions:
Preferably, the breakout candle and the confirmation candle are the same color.
The point where the breakout candle closes must be above resistance or below support.
The breakout must have happened with the body of a candle, not with the candle's shadow.
Even the closing point of the confirmation candle should be above the resistance breakout candle or below the support breakout candle.
But I should mention that the trading volume increases when a valid breakout occurs.
Now that you know a valid breakout, we can also check an invalid breakout, so dive down🔴 to the chart below.
As you can see, the price tries to be playful😜😜 and break the support line. But there are no buyers to support the price for this movement, so this breakout will be temporary and short-lived.
The price will soon return below the Support line. The invalid breakouts are sometimes known as bull traps or bear traps which I will explain in future posts.
I advise you to only sometimes look for a straight line for support or resistance.
I use support and resistance lines in my analysis to draw trend lines. But when I want to determine the support and resistance of a currency, I draw them as support and resistance zones.
Using zones makes you no longer involved in each line's small & fake breaks, and you won't make mistakes with each break.
Now that you have learned almost everything about these lines😎😎, it's time to start fishing and apply these tips to real trades.
I have considered all the necessary items for trading with these lines in the chart below. You might understand the reason for trading by looking at the picture before reading the description.
( The First Method )
The picture shows the price below this resistance zone, and they tried to escape several times.
Still, finally, when the trading volume and the number of buyers increased, it could cross its resistance zone with a strong candle(breakout candle), and then the confirmation candle formed.
Now, as traders, we should place our Entry Point(EP) slightly higher than the confirmation candle. And also, be careful;😱 maybe this break is invalid, or it returns below its resistance. So we place our Stop Loss(SL) a little lower than the breakout candle.
Now, look at this chart again. But I am going to teach you another method for trading.
( The Second Method )
You should only sometimes enter into a position at one point.
For example, when the price returns to its resistance to greet(Pullback), it's a good time to divide your money into two parts & re-enter the position.
With this, your average Entry Point will be lower, and the Risk/Reward(RR) ratio will increase.
( I know that the Risk/Reward(RR) is something that some of you are unfamiliar with, so don't worry cause I'm going to talk about it in future posts.)
There is another way to trade with these lines.
(The Third Method)
You've got another way to trade with two Entry Points. You can enter the position when the pullback accrues; the other entry point is a little higher than the highest price before the pullback.
In this method, you will be more confident about the position, but at the same time, the Risk/Reward (RR) is decreased compared to the previously mentioned methods. The Stop Loss is the same as the others.
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Prince Snow White Charts learned all these tricks along with Doc and the other Dwarves.
Excited to try this new knowledge, he immediately returned to Stocktopia😊and applied what he had learned to his trading. To his surprise, his trades became more profitable.
The king was pleased with his daughter's improvement, & these lessons were taught to all the traders in the kingdom👑 of Stocktopia.
From that day, Stocktopia was known as the kingdom with the most successful traders, thanks to the wisdom of Doc and Princess Snow White Charts.😊😊
Stocktopia's traders lived happily ever after, thanks to the protection and guidance provided by the Seven Dwarfs of Support.😇😇
I hope you enjoyed this story and use support and resistance lines/zones in your trading. But never forget that before using any new method, try it several times to master that method.😎😎😎.
Now let's leave the world of stories and return to the real world of traders. Take advantage of the following posts.
In the end, I wish you health and success.
POLYGON: The darkest horse on the crypto hippodromePolygon is Ethereum's first successful L2 solution. Aside from the main product, Polygon blockchain, the project also offers solutions based on the ZK and SNARK algorithms.
One of the main narratives for 2023 is blockchain and ZK-based solutions; we can assume that when zkSync, StarkNet, and other similar projects emerge, Polygon will grow alongside them, because market participants will find that all of these technologies are already implemented and used in Polygon.
Current metrics
Price: $1.09
ATH price: $2.8
M.cap: $9.5b
ATH M.cap: $20.5b
FDMC: $10.8b
Price change in a year: -57%
Maximum price change in a year: -87%
Polygon partnerships deserve special attention:
Meta
Nike
Htc (smartphones production)
Reddit
Robinhood
JPMorgan
DraftKings
Adobe
Liverpool
Starbucks
Adidas
Prada
Stripe
Nothing
NFL
Why is Polygon one the most prospective projects of the future?
While Ethereum solves scalability and gas price reduction issues
Solana is trying to address user churn, liquidity, and network sustainability issues
Near is trying to establish itself in the market, develop marketing strategies, and attract developers
Aptos is emerging as an ecosystem
Sui, Sei, Arbitrum, ZK and STARK are getting ready to go to market
Polygon is fully committed to becoming a mass-adoption solution and collaborating with as many real-world companies as possible. The next bull cycle will be based on mass adoption and engagement, which requires companies with a user base and products that are used by the masses.
Polygon is aggressive, and the average user is much more likely to hear about Polygon than Aptos/Solana/Near. Polygon develops solutions that, like Ethereum, do not require high transaction costs. Polygon has a well-established ecosystem and its own user base. Polygon has a chance to become the most widely used blockchain project.
Share your thoughts about Polygon in a comments section with us and check links below to trade Polygon with our exchange!
Thanks for reading!