5 Natural Reactions To Failure In Trading5 natural reactions to failure in trading
It could be very useful to understand your natural behavior when you are faced to failure in trading. All of us are facing losses, sometimes these losses can be huge when come a krach or a bad choices.
The situation in itself will not determine the reaction of the trader. It is his personality, his history facing which will determine it.
1. Anger
Being anger is a natural feeling. It is the direct consequence of a loss. But you are not anger about the loss itself but about the causes which led to this loss.
In fact, before taking this position, you knew that it was not a good idea or even a good timing maybe because:
- The lot size was too big
- There was a big data released 1 hour later
- You moved the stop loss
- You bought too high
- You sold too low
- ...
You knew it but you made it ! Why ? Not enough patience ? not enough discipline ? You need to analyse it and correct this behavior.
The anger must give you the opportunity to learn about the cause of it. Most of traders are not able to coldly analyse the causes, It not that easy. It's a fight against oneself.
Don't be wrong. Losing a trade in trading is inevitable. It is the way of losing that is avoidable. Risking all its capital on one trade and get angry against everybody around you while it is you who accumulated mistakes, is this really honest?
You are the only responsible for your loss and you must learn from it. You must learn to lose and you must learn to lose well.
2. Runnning out on his responsabilies
When you lose a trade, the good behavior is to analyse the reason of the fail. Why did this trade go wrong ?
Some of you may be very passive on a fail. Ok I lost this one but the next one will be in success, then the next one is a fail and the next one too and the next too etc etc.
Maybe your strategy is not good. You should question yourself after each losing trade.
3. Guilt feeling
This feeling is human and totally normal !
You blame yourself when you give in to your impulsiveness, when your reasoning is wrong or when your behavior has pushed you to failure.
You had the choice to act another way. You had the choice not taking this trade or managing it another way. You know it and it is a good thing.
Now assume it ! Yes you made a mistake but how will you act to change the behavior which led to all this ? This is the most important point.
Be responsible of your choices and be responsible of your acts but don't keep blame yourself constantly. Try to improve yourself everytime, everyday.
4. Sadness
Don't let sadness affect you ! Sadness is a sign of weakness. Weakness is the synonyme of KO. It is really dificult to get up back from this feeling. Sometime it lead to depression. This is the case when a trader loses everything after a krach or bad choices. Many of you could have experienced this already. If you are in this situation, ask for help.
Sometimes it could be an humiliating situation. Be strong !
You can ask for advice if necessary. It is important for you to get out of this situation.
5. Giving up
Trading is not that easy because psychology is an important part of sucess. Being a successful trader means that you handle 3 key elements :
- Strategy (You improve it everyday)
- Discipline (You apply a strict money management, you follow it no matter what happens)
- Psychology (You are psychologically strong, you handle your emotions)
Some people cannot assume all of this. If you tried but you failed, maybe it is not for you. Some people are not able to be good in trading. Accept it, give up and move on.
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All these natural reactions to failure can be overcome by taking a step back on the event. Put into perspective, bring nuance, change its point of view; the acceptance of failure requires a real effort whic is essential in trading
Ethereum (Cryptocurrency)
The Escalade Of Failure In TradingThe escalade of failure in trading ! : 5 reasons why most of traders lose their money !
Reason 1 / Step 1 : The "I DON'T ACCEPT LOSING" syndrom
Reason 2 / Step 2 : The "I MOVE MY STOP LOSS" temptation
Reason 3 / Step 3 : The "AVERAGE DOWN" disease
Reason 4 / Step 4 : The "RISK EVERYTHING" game
Reason 5 / Step 5 : The "I SWEAR IT WILL NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN" lie to yourself
Let me tell you the story of JOE the gambler :
Joe creates an account with $1,000 with a broker offering a x500 leverage. Virtually, Joe could invest almost $500,000 on the market ! Amazing !
Joe thinks that he is a reasonable investor and start investing with 0.05 lot.
He has $1,000 on his account. He has a very good investment strategy which has worked very well for 1 month on demo account.
Joe's projections gives $250 profit in one month.
It is time now to pass on real account. Joe has read many articles about money management and joe wants to risk only 3% of its capital on each trade.
Joe's strategy is to take trades only if a combination of several indicators give the same signal. Joe always use stop loss and take profit. The plan is the plan no matter what ! Right ?!
Joe bought 0.05 lot on EURUSD at 1.2200 with a SL at 1.2150. He thinks that the price will increase from 100 pips at least in the next hours to reach 1.23.
Reason 1 / Step 1 : The "I DON'T ACCEPT LOSING" syndrom
Problem, the price falls from 40 pips. Joe starts panicking.
Reason 2 / Step 2 : The "I MOVE MY STOP LOSS" temptation
Joe decides to move the SL from 50 to 100 pips at 1.21.
Reason 3 / Step 3 : The "AVERAGE DOWN" disease
Problem, the market decides to go down again and the position shows a 80 pips floating loss. Joe decides to move the SL from 100 pips to 150 pips at 1.2050 and take a new position of 0.05 lot on EURUSD at 1.2120 with a SL at 1.2050.
Problem, the market continues its fall and the price displays 1.2070. Joe thinks OK. I move my SL from 1.2050 to 1.1950. It gives more margin to let breathe the market and Joe takes a third position of 0.05 lot at 1.2050 with a SL at 1.1950.
The average price is now 1.2123.
Problem, the next days the market starts a range between 1.20 and 1.21 and Joe wants absolutely to leave the overall position in profit. Pride !
Joe loses patience and decides to take a new postion of 0.1 lot on EURUSD at 1.2070.
The average price is now 1.2102.
Joe is stressed and tired of this situation and decides to put an overall TP at 1.2120. The probability to hit the TP is high.
Finally the market goes up and hit the TP during the night and when Joe wakes up the the price on EURUSD is 1.2200.
Oh my GOSH !
Joe is frustrated ! Why did I change my TP ? I missed a lot of profit on this movement !!!
Joe decides to take a new trade on EURUSD at 1.2200 without SL this time because this time is the right one !!! Pride !!!
Problem, the market falls from 25 pips at 1.2175. Joe is convinced that he is right so he takes a new BUY pending position at 1.2150.
And now the market makes a huge falls from 1.2175 to 1.2050 during the day.
Joe has now 2 positions of 0.05 lot size. At this moment, Joe decided reasonably to close all positions with losses at 1.2050.
Joe lost 275 pips on these 2 hasardous trades.
The Escalade Of Failure In TradingThe escalade of failure in trading ! : 5 reasons why most of traders lose their money !
Reason 1 / Step 1 : The "I DON'T ACCEPT LOSING" syndrom
Reason 2 / Step 2 : The "I MOVE MY STOP LOSS" temptation
Reason 3 / Step 3 : The "AVERAGE DOWN" disease
Reason 4 / Step 4 : The "RISK EVERYTHING" game
Reason 5 / Step 5 : The "I SWEAR IT WILL NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN" lie to yourself
Let me tell you the story of JOE the gambler :
Joe creates an account with $1,000 with a broker offering a x500 leverage. Virtually, Joe could invest almost $500,000 on the market ! Amazing !
Joe thinks that he is a reasonable investor and start investing with 0.05 lot.
Joe creates an account with $1,000 with a broker offering a x500 leverage. Virtually Joe could invest almost $500,000 on the market ! Amazing !
So Joe has $1,000 on his account. He has a very good investment strategy which has worked very well for 1 month on demo account.
Joe's projections gives $250 profit in one month.
It is time now to pass on real account. Joe has read many articles about money management and joe wants to risk only 3% of its capital on each trade.
Joe's strategy is to take trades only if a combination of several indicators give the same signal. Joe always use stop loss and take profit. The plan is the plan no matter what ! Right ?!
Joe bought 0.05 lot on EURUSD at 1.2200 with a SL at 1.2150. He thinks that the price will increase from 100 pips at least in the next hours to reach 1.23.
Reason 1 / Step 1 : The "I DON'T ACCEPT LOSING" syndrom
Problem, the price falls from 40 pips. Joe starts panicking.
Reason 2 / Step 2 : The "I MOVE MY STOP LOSS" temptation
Joe decides to move the SL from 50 to 100 pips at 1.21.
Reason 3 / Step 3 : The "AVERAGE DOWN" disease
Problem, the market decides to go down again and the position shows a 80 pips floating loss. Joe decides to move the SL from 100 pips to 150 pips at 1.2050 and take a new position of 0.05 lot on EURUSD at 1.2120 with a SL at 1.2050.
Problem, the market continues its fall and the price displays 1.2070. Joe thinks OK. I move my SL from 1.2050 to 1.1950. It gives more margin to let breathe the market and Joe takes a third position of 0.05 lot at 1.2050 with a SL at 1.1950.
The average price is now 1.2123.
Problem, the next days the market starts a range between 1.20 and 1.21 and Joe wants absolutely to leave the overall position in profit. Pride !
Joe loses patience and decides to take a new postion of 0.1 lot on EURUSD at 1.2070.
The average price is now 1.2102.
Joe is stressed and tired of this situation and decides to put an overall TP at 1.2120. The probability to hit the TP is high.
Finally the market goes up and hit the TP during the night and when Joe wakes up the the price on EURUSD is 1.2200.
Oh my GOSH !
Joe is frustrated ! Why did I change my TP ? I missed a lot of profit on this movement !!!
Joe decides to take a new trade on EURUSD at 1.2200 without SL this time because this time is the right one !!! Pride !!!
Problem, the market falls from 25 pips at 1.2175. Joe is convinced that he is right so he takes a new BUY pending position at 1.2150.
And now the market makes a huge falls from 1.2175 to 1.2050 during the day.
Joe has now 2 positions of 0.05 lot size. At this moment, Joe decided reasonably to close all positions with losses at 1.2050.
Joe lost 275 pips on these 2 hasardous trades.
The Power of Stop Loss and Risk/Reward in tradingKeep this in mind. Only one trade without stop loss can burn your capital.
A stop loss is an indispensable tool allowing you to limit your losses. It is also a level from which you feel that your scenario will not happen anymore. It is mandatory on every position if you want to keep your money safe.
See it like an insurance policy. In case the trade is going wrong, you can be sure that a large part of your capital will be safe. You just need to know how to place your stop.
It also allows you to sleep peacefully because a stop loss deletes the stress and allows you doing activities other than trading. You don’t need to monitor your trade every 10 minutes. The less you monitor your trade the less you risk to make mistakes.
Some people will say that stop loss decreases the winning ratio. Many traders argue to get 90% to 100% of winning trades. Hmmm why not but do they use stop loss? If yes what is their risk/reward ratio?
How to place and manage your stop loss?
Place your stop loss according to the market price level. It must be placed above or below a key level such as a support, a resistance or a higher/lower.
Don't place your stop loss on a support, resistance or higher/lower. It is there that you should place your entry point!
Respect the Risk/Reward ratio. A RR of 2 or more is a key of success in trading. I give you more details below.
Take into account the volatility of the asset. The more volatile an asset is, the greater is the risk of seeing your stop loss hit on a volatility movement. On a volatile asset, you need to further your stop loss level. This element must be taken into account especially if you carry out long term trades, on daily, weekly or monthly timeframes.
Never move your stop if the the trade goes wrong! The only context allowing you moving your stop is if the market goes right in order to secure your profit. In this case you can move your stop to the breakeven point (Entry) or more to ensure some profit.
The Risk/Reward ratio, the secret of success
What is the Risk/Reward ratio or RR ?
The RR ratio is the difference between the potential loss and the potential profit of your trade. You simply divide the pips number you expect to win by the pips number you expect to lose.
Assume that you place an order with a TP at 50 pips and a SL at 100 pips then your RR ratio will be 0.5 which means that you will need to win 2 trades to recover the loss of 1 trade.
Now assume that you place an order with a TP of 100 pips and a SL of 50 pips then your RR will be 2 which means that you will need to win only 1 trade to recover the loss of 2 trades.
Never take a trade if your risk/reward ratio is below 1.
A RR of 2 and more is one of the key to become successful in trading on a long run. Imagine the insane performance it would be, if every trade you make had a RR of 2 with 70% of winning trades!
Hope these little tricks will help you improve your trading.
Model of Economic BubblesA replicated model of " Economic Bubbles " by Jean-Paul Rodrigue which I overlaid onto the BTCUSD -13.83% chart.
Terrifying resemblance considering this this model was created in 2008.
What stage do you believe we are in?
I do not believe this is the end of crypto.
However, I do advise everyone to keep an open mind, and to trade carefully.
I wish you all the best of luck.
Source:
upload.wikimedia.org
My understanding of the market cyclesThe idea is purely for educational purposes and SHOULD NOT be considered as trading advice.
Based on my understanding of the market cycles I have tried to summarize how the money flows into the crypto market using Bitcoin USD and Large Cap Index/ BTC price as reference.
The large cap index consists of XRP, ETH, LTC, ETC, NEM, XMR - basically large caps which are consistently in the top 15 since 2016 and covers more than 50% of the altcoin market. There are several reasons why newer alts(like BCH, Cardano, Neo) are not considered for the analysis, lack for sufficient historical data being the primary reason.
Moreover, I have seen the market to move in tandem i.e. all altcoins go up and down togeather so the index is sufficient to study the market cycles.
I hope you like the idea. Please share and follow incase you find it useful.
I am also curious about why
How to Trade Bullish Flag Patterns - ETHUSDThe flag pattern is fairly simple with just three components.
1. The flagpole
2.The flag
A strong up trend
Ideally, we want to see a retracement of 38.2% or less for trend continuation.
To trade the flag, you can time an entry at the lower end of the price channel or wait for a break up above the upper channel. Look to take profits by projecting the length of the flag pole at the bottom of the flag.
Stop loss is to be placed below the flag channel.
Anyone interested to know more about forex, cryptocurrencies or crypto mining feel free to drop me a message here.
Pending Orders & Important ZonesI would like to show you a good example explaining why we should use pending orders for entry the markets above/below important zones. Several days ago I wrote about possible trading opportunity for Ethereum Classic. You can find this post in related ideas. I wrote that the price bounced from the resistance zone which was formed by SMA100, the downtrend line and 11.00 resistance level. We got a new swing high as an important level for placing pending orders for buy. And now we can see that this idea was right. Buy orders allowed us to entry this market on time. You could miss this trading opportunity just trying to get the better level for entry and more solid signals for buying. The price reversed and moved upward very quickly. The 1st profit target was reached and we made some profit. If you can't monitor the markets 24/7, using pending orders and important zones is a good way out for catching price movements on time. How to do it correctly? If we have bearish markets like in this example, we should place buy orders above the local swing highs, downtrend lines, resistance levels. If we have bullish markets, we should place pending orders for sell below the local swing lows, uptrend lines, support levels. When the price breaks such zones, we should expect for strong price movements in the direction of breakouts. It's good strategy for entry and you can use it on any markets and time frames. Just don't forget about proper money management and you will be in profit in long run.
Is it always a good time to buy ICOs?For an ICO to give you a positive ROI, history shows that an average time frame of 6-9 months is needed before the market starts to move into markup phase.
This time frame is shortened as the bull market gets closer to the end, as time frames compress, and price action accelerates. Furthermore, towards the end of the bull market, the returns in % become much lesser.
The best time to buy an ICO is when:
1) BTC price is cheap
2) We still have a foreseeable bull market ahead
However, as the bull market comes to an end, the risk of btc price decreasing, and having the altcoin be slow to market, multiplies the risk (of buying an ICO) exponentially.
With this potentially being the last leg up for BTC and consequently for alts, please thread with caution.
This Is The EndFew people realize it, but the cryptocurrency markets have already topped.
Bitcoin is currently bouncing back to the $4,500 area, at which point big money bottom accumulators, who were taken by surprise by the recent aggressive dumps, will proceed to exit their positions by selling Bitcoin as well as other cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum.
This will create a blatantly visible double top on the daily and weekly. Bitcoin's price will then proceed to decline by around 80% over the next year or so, powered by profit-taking, miner dumps, government crackdowns, exchange closures, and panic selling by hundreds of thousands of schmucks who bought in at the top of the bubble. My target is $999 or lower by the end of next year.
I've been in bitcoin since 2012. It's been an incredible ride. But at this point, there's nothing powering price anymore beyond the expectation of higher prices by junk/dumb money speculators. This fundamentally defines the top of a speculative bubble.
This is the exact same market sentiment that was around during the 2013 run-up from $100 to $1200 and subsequent bubble pop. It was simply impossible for many market players to imagine that Bitcoin prices would plummet. This is a severe psychological limitation that's especially pronounced in the cryptocurrency markets.
Greed is rampant and big money is out to profit as much as possible on the backs of the endless new, dumb money coming in. Just a couple of weeks ago, a Russian grandmother ("babushka"), a distant relative, called my people looking to invest her life savings into digital currencies. She has no information about bitcoin beyond the fact that she'd heard prices were going up and that it was an easy way to make more fiat.
C-list US celebrities are also jumping on the bandwagon. Floyd Mayweather, Paris Hilton, and Kevin Hart are just a few of the folks who recently sought to promote worthless ICOs and cryptocurrencies to their social media followers.
Ray Dalio, head of Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund with $150B AUM, recently expressed his thoughts on Bitcoin. Knowing Dalio, I know for a fact that he'd never talk publicly about anything without having done incredibly thorough research and dampened his psychological biases by speaking with the most talented people in the space. Dalio said bitcoin is a massive speculative bubble. I tend to agree.
It's hard to imagine Bitcoin prices plummeting if you've been in the space for a while. You've drunk the Kool-Aid. You're part of a community that believes one thing and it'd be wrong to believe otherwise.
My friends, I urge you - take a step back. Look at the facts. Look at the charts. Listen to the people who have decades of financial market experience and who've been through dozens of hype cycles. They've lived it - they know what they're talking about.
Bitcoin won't die. Its price will simply decline by around 80%, as will the prices of the majority of altcoins. Until the next hype cycle.
How to Make Money in Crypto MarketsIf you read this post, it means that probably you are interesting in making money in the crypto markets. You want to trade cryptocurriences and multiply your investments. But do you really think that it's easy? The cryptomarkets open for everyone great opportunities, but you must have some skill for conversion these opportunities into real money. If you think that everyone can make stable profit just buying coins and holding them for long term, I should tell you that you are wrong. You can face with troubles which can beat you and your deposit. And what should you do for avoiding such cases? The answer is very simple - you must know how to trade and manage your money properly. You must have knowledge, trading strategies and an accurate trading plan for making money in long term. You must have discipline for following your trading plan day by day. Only in such way you can expect safe and profitable trading. But I see a great number of novice traders who know nothing about proper trading. They make all possible mistakes. Buying on tops and selling on bottoms it can give you some fun and a lot of emotions. But if you want to make money you must trade in other way. I advice all novice traders think about their trading. Ask yourself, are you ready for real trading? Do you have everything for proper trading or not? Do you have understanding how the markets move? Do you know when you have to buy and when to sell? Do you know how to manage your money properly? If you don't have answers for these questions, you should stop your trading on real money. You have to start learning the theory and start working under your trading plan. You must note that without these components of successful trading you can't make stable money in long term. I advice you to start trading in the crypto markets in right way from the very beginning. While you learning and searching for suitable strategies, you can use trading bots or trading signals as a variant of trading. It will allow you trade in the crypto markets safely and gain experience. I wish you good luck!
DGBBTC-Psychological Stages of a Bubble MarketPsychological Stages of a Bubble Market
1. Stealth Phase
2. Awareness Phase
3. Mania Phase
4. Blow off Phase
POLONIEX:BTCUSDT BITSTAMP:BTCUSD BITFINEX:ETHUSD POLONIEX:ETHUSDT KORBIT:ETHKRW KORBIT:BTCKRW
POLONIEX:DGBBTC POLONIEX:ETCUSDT BITFINEX:ETCUSD
ETHEREUM / D1 : Sinewave & Elliot suggests TP but still bullishCombined Elliott wave analysis and cycle analysis through PRO Sinewave (beta) both tend to confirm a TP area nearby the current prices which would mean the end of subwave 3 of our supposed last impulse (V) that is our extended wave. Which means that we may still have a final 5th wave to complete on the subcount in order to finish this cycle. Anyhow bulls must get out at that point and wait for retracement to eventually jump in again for the final wave 5 call.
Hope this idea will inspire some of you ! I'm pretty new to TradingView so I'ld appreciate any like/comment/follow if you feel like it deserve it ;)
The best way to trade the most trade Cryptocurrency pair ETHBTCETHBTC is like the most traded currency pair, comparable with EURUSD.
Currently the trend is strongly in favor of Ethereum it moved from as little as 0.01 ETHBTC to now 0.1 ETHBTC, which is an increase of price of more then 10 times or 1000%
Best way to trade ETHBTC is holding all your money in Ethereum and whenever you see price drop to a retracement then you buy it, and when price breaks two resistance you sell it.
Example
When you start at 0.1 ETHBTC
Buy at 0.095 ETHBTC and sell at 0.105 ETHBTC
When you start at 0.11 ETHBTC
Buy at 0.105 ETHBTC and sell at 0.115 ETHBTC
Like this you are able to profit from both:
1. LONGTERM TREND of Ethereum
2. Dips from price drops and correction
Result:
You get a result that outperforms both underlying markets.
ETHEUR: Long term view, chart of all chartsThis is how the Ethereum chart looks, plotted against the Euro using Kraken data. It has been the most reliable instrument to perform analysis on this pair, together with $ETHBTC from the Poloniex feed. Currently, we are tracing a daily, weekly and monthly uptrend. Periodically, smaller timeframes might be in a consolidation or retracement phase, to then rejoin the big picture trend in the monthly.
Right now, we can anticipate higher prices all month, courtesy of the daily and weekly signals depicted in yellow and turquoise. This weekend is loaded with fundamental events that can further boost this rally, so I think it is logical to see $ETHEUR hit the daily and weekly top target zones in time or even earlier than expected.
After the time expires for these signals, we could commence a consolidation phase, which can take a myriad of shapes, and isn't predictable yet, other than on a time duration basis. Normally, the market will absorb supply from profit taking, which takes a proportional amount of time to the rally itself, so it is logical to observe what Tim West has noted in his 'Time at Mode' proprietary method. So far, this methodology has served me well, and I would be glad to share the benefits of it with people interested in trading these powerful trends. Tim is working on new material currently, you can pm me or him to learn more about it.
Now, on to the trading reccomendation aspect, if you're long, consider average volatility to determine your position sizing. During a trend, it is reccomended to gain exposure, and while consolidating, trimming it back down, or outright taking profits. Don't risk more than a 10% drawdown on a worst case scenario basis if trading long term, it will be hard to recover otherwise.
Keep your coins safe in hardware wallets like the Trezor or Ledger nano, and make sure you do your due diligence when it comes to cybersecurity, and exposure to centralized exchange risk and margin trading.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.