Some tipsSome of the way I use 382's ( and other things ); Some of the problems with shorting highs and how I handle it.
Eurusd-4
The truth Your I.B. doesn't care about you.. (exposing C.O.I.)The times have changed for the retail trader, and in essence scalping and day, trading has, in essence, become a complete waste of time for the average person looking to make even a small gain in the FX market. In the last 6 years, day trading and scalping have become worthless strategies, only done by those who are ignorant to the situation behind the scenes that makes of a huge negative feedback loop full of conflicts of interest with one goal; to take the retail trades money. As swing traders, we are the only type of trader that is left. We let the market tell us what to do, not the other way around. It is obvious that a market that is stuck in a range, is impossible to trade for a profit. The biggest mistake one can make, is only trading one asset class, and only 1 timeframe. This is the most obvious mistake that most new traders make. Learning to trade the timeframes that are significant to volatility in the market and by diversifying to multiple asset classes.
Volatility is a traders lifeblood of a trader. Since 09', volatility has been absolutely crushed. Without volatility , there is no risk and opportunity (sides of the same coin). This means returns peter to 0. The question is, why has volatility been crushed? There are a few reasons: quantitative easing, the advancement of algos, and expanded participation.
The monetary policy introduced by the FED after the 08' recession was quantitative easing QE ). Essentially, QE means that central banks increase the supply of money by buying government bonds and other securities. What does this mean? It means a guaranteed buyer of bonds, which suppresses yields permanently, feeding over into other asset classes since the market begins to look for other opportunities (chasing yields) which ironically only suppresses yields further.
Technology: Volatility has been suppressed by the advancement of algos and automated trading stations. An increase in algos over the last 8 years has dramatically increased the number of market participants. How does this affect volatility? It's simple: more willing buyers and sellers mean that the equilibrium in price is considerably more stable, thus decreasing the natural fluctuation in the price of an asset at every single price.
Dec 08
Comment: Now how exactly is the market rigged against the retail trades? I'll explain every dynamic. I'm going to assume you understand what a CFD is and how a margin call is determined through an over-leveraged exposure to the market with your accounts equity (google these if you are new).
Now how exactly is the market rigged against the retail trades? I'll explain every dynamic. I'm going to assume you understand what a CFD is and how a margin call is determined through an over-leveraged exposure to the market with your accounts equity (google these if you are new).
Let's think about the problem that an international broker has as a business. Keep in mind, over 90% of their clients losing all of their deposited funds within 3-4 months, how does this business even grow? If you own the brokerage company, you have to spend a significant amount of money (between 30-50%), towards customer acquisition. This is the only way you can stay at the same level. Now, this is where conflicts of interest begin. What do you think happens when a broker has access (backend) to 90% of let's say 10,000 traders who always are losing money? You take the opposite side of their trade. Why? You would have a 90% win ratio. With an average balance of a few thousand dollars, most retail traders tend to blow up in just a few days when trading over 100x.
The way that the brokerage industry works, is that it is built around major conflicts of interest. This creates a scenario because all players are aware and build the infrastructure for their benefit not yours. A retail trader has one simple objective, to make money through profitable trades in the market. Wallstreet's intentions are to take retail traders money.
There are 4 main conflicts of interest I will discuss.
Spread. What is spread? The spread comes from the guaranteed purchase or repurchase (short) of an asset, through a profit in the difference of market value and the price. The cost of guaranteed liquidity is through the broker being offered a price that they can make a profit on. If a broker has two clients, the client a is relieved of their position at $1, and client b is then sold that position at $2, making a profit of 1$ by providing the liquidity. This is called "taking a turn".
Commission: A percentage of a trades price to enter in and out.
The two most obvious conflicts of interest here is that the amount of volume is dependent on the amount of profit for the brokerage. Brokers want the retail trader to trade in the biggest position possible as much as possible. Now the answer to the question as to why a brokerage would lend you 100x to trade with becomes obvious; they get paid.
The next two are not so obvious.
Over the counter contracts are unregulated. When a losing contract is provided liquidity from the broker to a losing retail trader, taking the other-side of this contract is called "OTC Gain".
"Financing Turn" is the money made from the percent difference between borrowing from creditors (banks, investors) to finance leveraged grading and the percent charged to clients. IN essence, this is the ability to charge 100X of commission for an account with X dollars.
Who finances a brokers ability to lend money, comes from an investment bank. Through collateralized debt, a revolving credit facility can be formed and thus farmed for credit from retail traders. The only reason this makes sense is through the deposited funds from retail traders themselves. These funds are again collateralized and used by the investment bank. IN essence, retail trades deposit money, which sponsors the broker to be lent money by their investment bank at a % higher. Retail traders essentially finance their own financial demise. With over 90% of traders losing money, a brokerage is incentivized to borrow as much money as possible to profit from the financing turn of their clients. This is where the introducing broker (IB) comes into play.
A brokerages revenues come from the addition of spread, commission, financing turn, and the OTC gain.
Retail brokers are incentives to create a narrative that increases you changes of losing money. They are heavily invested to make retail traders believe in scalping and high volume trading strategies, so that you can get rich quick.
Let's break down the chart.
-Investment Bank: Provides credit and clearing to the brokers. Order-flow is created here.
-Broker: Providing access to platform and software, access to credit, and fulfilling liquidity (that you wouldn't get as a retail trader anywhere else). This means that a retail traders has to use a broker; necessary evil .
-Educator (introducing broker): Educators are paid by a broker commission on every trade you take. They will glamorize the lifestyle of quick and easy money, becoming a millionaire from a $600 account. Providing a simple strategy using 4 indicators, with a simple buy and sell execution plan around it.
-Retail Trader: Dumb money. They believe everything that their educator and broker tell them. They pay spread and commission, and provide the demand for financing/leverage, losing trades, and for a false narrative.
-Smart Money: Believe none of the participants in the entire market who have conflict of interest.
Who are the biggest clients of exchanges? Investment banks.
Smart Money (professional traders)
-understand how the market works
-understand that conflicts of interest exists
-avoid trading in the way that anyone with conflicts of interest want them to trade
do everything in the opposite way to the how retail traders do things.
Dumb Money (retail traders)
-believe everything they are told and rely on the infrastructure provided to them by market participants with conflicts of interest.
-believe the infrastructure has been built and designed to benefit THEM.
-they do everything in the opposite way to professional traders.
Smart money requires dumb money to exist. Smart money predicts the future (whisper numbers). Dumb money reactions to the present and wealth is thus transferred. The biggest payers of feeds to exchanges are investment banks, hedge funds and pension funds.
TRADING TIME FRAMES COVERED!Hi all,
I know i am abit late with the video feature but better late than neverrrr!
In this video i have covered the key trading time frames and the things you should be looking out for.
What would you like me to cover? leave your comments below and i will get back to everyone! :)
EURUSD - D Dears,
please, follow our instructions as mention on the chart.
Good luck and take care.
thank you.
EURUSD 1H INSIDE CANDLE METHOD BREAKOUTINSIDE CANDLE STRATEGY
What is an Inside Candle
1. Previous candle engulfs next candle.
2. 2nd candle high is lower that 1st candle.
3. 2nd candle low is higher than 1st candle.
INSIDE CANDLE METHOD
1. Incoming Trend
2. Inside Candle – Opposite Color
3. Enter Break of Engulfing Larger Candle
Inside Candle method is a great short term consolidation indicator.
If your trade plan contains breakouts and consolidation then this method is for you.
This is a great way to find smaller consolidations quicker which will give you more trades on whatever time frame you want to look.
On a daily chart it may take weeks for a consolidation pattern to form.
Inside candle represents a pause, consolidation or compression in the market after a big move.
Often you will also see reduced volume on the inside candle.
Inside Candle method is a pause or a reversal of the trend . So it is more effective if there is an incoming trend.
Enter a break of the larger engulfing candle in the direction of the break.
Enter with a Stop Order a few pips above or below breakout level.
Which trades you take is a matter of preference.
Some like reversal trades or trend following trades.
Scalping in doesn't matter what direction you may go.
Trend following you will want to see this in context of a larger trend.
Take all the trade setups and just shut down the ones that don't preform.
Trade Management: Enter 2 trades
Stop Loss is 1.5 x ATR for both trades
First Take Profit is 1 x ATR for 1st trade
2nd trade there is no take profit.
When 1st TP is hit move 2nd trades SL to breakeven.
Let profit run on 2nd trade by following/trailing SL.
If a candle closes back inside the larger engulfing candle close down trade.
Watch for a setup for the next breakout.
EU : Shadow support and potential level to watchHello fellas, Here it is the short term view of current movement of EURUSD and today's potential movement for EURUSD .
Today, we can expect the price to test this 2 regions which are the yellow support trend line and the blue region as a shadown support which have the confluence with the previous yellow line.
Yellow line is simply the support trend line that has held the price since November 29th, 2019 and breaking down of this yellow line will lead the price to further fall around the white support trend line as the S1.
Look at my long term bias on my previous analysis in related idea
EU levels to watch this weekHere it is I present to all of you about the EU chart and potential levels to be tested in this week. I want to give several highlighted things in this chart.
First, Looking at the green resistance trend line, this is the resistance trend line which has driven the price since september 2018. This is however become the massive trend line and on daily chart, this resistance trend line is having an alignment with the 200 MA. So, currently the price has now showing the rejection toward this resistance trend line and this action is just showing us that the price still respect current resistance area.
Second, Looking at the price actually has formed the higher low structure and looks like the higher high structure will be formed in the near future. This is a pretty good pattern combination for now. After the price breaks out of the green zone, we'll see a rally toward the upside and long position for swing could be activated.
This weeks we will see a little retracement toward the 1st support zone or maximum to the 2nd support zone. But, my main bias is still testing the green resistance trend line.
ATR MONEY MANAGEMENT FOR GBPAUD & EURUSD 4H & 1DUsing a set amount for SL and TP for different pairs and time frames is not effective money management.
Using the ATR for a specific pair and time frame lets you custom yur SL & TP for what that pair actually moves.
ATR 1D takes the last 14 candles and adds up then up together and then divides that figure by 14.
Now you have an average of how much that pair moves in a day.
GBPAUD 1D ATR moves 133 pips
GBPAUD 4H ATR moves 47 pips
EURUSD 1D ATR moves 42 pips
EURUSD 4H ATR moves 15,6 pips
This helps me determine a more accurate setting for my SL and TP for the pair I am trading and the time frame I am using.
EURUSD 1D AWESOME OSCILLATOR (AO) STRATEGYLong Trade
AO below Zero Line
AO creates a Low
AO then creates a Higher Low
ENTER after AO bar closes Green
Short Trade
AO above Zero Line
AO creates High
AO then creates a Lower High
ENTER after AO bar closes Red
Stop Loss is 1.5 x ATR
Take Profit is 1 x ATR
1 - Trade Management
2 - Enter two trades.
3 - SL for both trades will be 1.5 x ATR.
4 - 1st trade TP will be 1 x ATR.
5 - No TP on 2nd trade – letting profit run and adjusting SL to follow price.
6 - When 1st trade TP hit – move 2nd trade SL to breakeven.
7 - Adjust the 2nd trade SL to follow price.
EURUSD LONG - TradingView to MT4 BotSide: Long
Risk: 10%
SL: 60 pips
Noice start this week!
SEND SIGNALS FROM TRADINGVIEW TO MT4
www.tradingviewtomt4.com
POSSIBLE COMMANDS
Open Orders
buy_SYMBOL_SLinPoints_Risk%
sell_SYMBOL_SLinPoints_Risk%
buy_SYMBOL_SLinPrice_Risk%
(can be used for dynamic values)
sell_SYMBOL_SLinPrice_Risk%
(can be used for dynamic values)
buy_EURUSDi_150_0.05 = opens a buy order on EURUSD with an SL 150 points away with 5% risk if SL triggers
sell_EURUSDi_1.10200_0.03 = opens a sell order on EURUSD with an SL at 1.10200 with 3% risk if SL triggers
Close Orders
close_SYMBOL_%toClose_none
close_SYMBOL_%toClose_break
close_SYMBOL_%toClose_(price)
(can be used for dynamic values)
close_EURUSD_50_none = closes 50% of an open order and SL stays the same
close_EURUSD_0_break = closes 0% of an open order and SL moves to breakeven if trade is in profit
close_EURUSD_25_1.10200 = closes 25% of an open order and SL moves to price that is stated
Update Orders
update_SYMBOL_SL1_SL2
(can be used for dynamic values)
The logic of this command differs slightly and serves as a trailing stop between two dynamic values if your indicator provides that.
For example, if current trade is a BUY, after sending this command, it will move Stop Loss to SL1, if it’s a SELL, it will move Stop Loss to SL2.
update_EURUSDcn_1.10300_1.10100 = If we are in a BUY, Stop Loss would be updated to 1.10300. If we were in a SELL, Stop Loss would be updated to 1.10100.
If you used dynamic values in trading view, the command would essentially look like this: update_EURUSDcn_{{plot_3}}_{{plot_4}}
SEND ALERTS FROM TRADINGVIEW TO MT4
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WHY RISK MANAGEMENT?
Trading can be very lucrative, we all know that, hence; why we became traders in the first place. Whether you found an awesome indicator script on TradingView, an Expert Advisor on MT4, or whatever other strategy that got you excited about trading in the first place; you will lose no matter how perfect a strategy works.
I started trading with a strategy that had over 60% win rate and still lost half of my account. You may think I’m an idiot. I just didn’t understand it’s more important to know how much you can lose rather than how much you can make. So from now on, forget about gains. If your strategy’s win rate is above 50%, focusing on how much you can lose will always be more important. The gains will come on their own after that.
Risk management is simple and only involves basic math. So let’s start with that: To understand the calculator in it’s entirety, you must know how to calculate profit from a winning position. We’ll use a FOREX example.
Let’s say bought 1.00 Lot of EURUSD at 1.00100, a couple hours or minutes later, you closed it at 1.00200. First you subtract Close Price from Entry Price to get the amount of points you gained:
1.00200 - 1.00100 = 0.00100
100 points gain or 10 pips
To calculate dollar profit you multiply by Lot Size and multiply again by 100,000.
0.00100 * 1.00 * 100,000 = $100
Gain * Lot Size * 100,000 = $
Great, so you made $100! If your balance was $1,000, you just made 10% return, amazing! But.. what if the trade had gone wrong? How do you even calculate how much you might lose? Well first, you have to choose a Stop Loss, this varies depending on your strategy. One of my 30m strategies has a Stop Loss between 150-200 points, while a 4hr strategy might have a Stop Loss between 600-650 points.
Let’s say you’ve made up your mind and you’re going to choose a Stop Loss at 150 points, which means if price is at 1.00150, your stop loss would end up at 1.00000 on a Buy Trade. The key thing first is deciding what % of your balance you’re willing to risk. If I have $1000, you might be okay with losing 5%, which is $50. Now you use the formula above:
Gain * Lot Size * 100,000 = $
In this case, we would substitute Gain with Stop Loss value instead.
Stop Loss * Lot Size * 100,000 = $
150 * Lot Size * 100,000 = $50
As you can see, we have to solve for Lot Size because we don’t know exactly how much to trade yet if our trade hits our Stop Loss, we’ll only lose $50. I won’t go into the algebra, so here is the final formula:
Lot Size = 1 / (SL in Points / (Capital x Risk%))
Lot Size = 1 / (150 / ($1000 * 5%)) = 0.33
Trading 0.33 lot size with a hard Stop Loss of 150, we’ll only lose $50 or 5% of our balance.
That’s basic risk management, and it’ll save you headaches from losing money on your trades. Don’t worry about doing the math yourself though, use our bot that auto-calculates your position based on your risk. Happy trading!
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EURUSD: FORWARDTESTING Supply and DemandThis trade is for my own personal record. Idea obtained from forexmentor:
www.forexmentoronline.com
Theory is that after 4-10 days, when price revisits a a loosing retail trader's position, they would be inclinded to close the trade. creating some liquidity for institutions. Just going to monitor the white area and see what happens.
EW Analysis: Bullish Emerging Markets May Push EURUSD HigherHello traders!
Today we will talk about emerging markets(EEM) and EURUSD.
As you can see in the first chart, there's a positive correlation between emerging markets and EURUSD. Of course, there are no tick by tick correlations, but the current wave structure it's telling us that we may see a bigger recovery in the upcoming days/weeks.
Emerging markets can be trading in a three-wave (A)-(B)-(C) recovery up to 61,8% Fibonacci retracement and 46 area, especially after that break out of the corrective channel, so in our opinion EEM may easily stay in the bullish trend.
At the same time we can see strong and impulsive recovery on EURUSD, which is telling us that the temporary bottom can be in place and a bigger three-wave (A)-(B)-(C) correction can be underway up to 1.15 - 1.18 area, mainly because of break out of the wedge pattern (ending diagonal).
Notice that these are daily charts and they may take some time to completely unfold, so don't get confused on the smaller time frame charts. We just want to give you an idea, where the markets can be headed long/mid-term.
Be humble and trade smart!
If you like our analysis, then please give us a like and share it!
Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
EURUSD shortCurrently price is consolidating my zone and in the one hour price has formed a double top.
How I will be entering:
-Upon the next successful bearish candle I will enter on the close
DXY, GBPUSD, EURUSD, GOLD LONG TERM OUTLOOKHi Guys
Thanks to everyone who recently followed me on here
This is my longer term outlook and what I'm seeing at the moment and believe is a good time to position in longer term trades and bias
EURUSD longEURUSD seems to setting up for a long move in the next few days.
- Price has been in a nice uptrend since 2nd october, and is just retesting the previous higher high.
- Price is also using the 50ema in the 1 hour as a dynamic support.
How I will enter:
I will be waiting for price to push a little bit lower and form wicked candles.
USDCAD is also approaching one of my resistance zones, if rejected price could potentially fall back down to the 1.32 - 1.18 region which will confirm this trade.
