How to turn 100 dollars into 1 million in 926 trading days ?Hi guys, I wanted to share with you a strategy that I am using currently on one of my accounts.
The goal is to make this account growing with a target goal of 1 million USD without making any withdrawal.
I would call it "The turtle millionaire strategy" . Some of you probably use it or know it but some of you never imagine this possible.
YES if you are patient and disciplined you can turn 100 dollars into 1 million dollars.
How? By giving you the chance to grow your account slowly but surely.
Imagine that your daily average goal is 1% ? It is clearly something highly reasonable and possible with a $100 account because we actually use a minimum leverage of 0.01 lot which is actually 1K in reality.
An exponential strategy:
Day 1: $100.00 (1%) = $101.00
Day 2: $101.00 (1%) = $102.01
Day 3: $102.01 (1%) = $103.03
Day 4: $103.03 (1%) = $104.06
....
Day 50: $162.83 (1%) = $164.46
....
Day 100: $267.80 (1%) = $270.48
.....
Day 200: $724.36 (1%) = $731.60
.....
Day 300: $1,959.25 (1%) = $1,978.85
.....
Day 400: $5,299.42 (1%) = $5,352.41
.....
Day 500: $14,333.94 (1%) = $14,477,28
.....
Day 600: $38,770.63 (1%) = $39,158.34
.....
Day 700: $104,867.35 (1%) = $105,916.02
.....
Day 800: $283,646.65 (1%) = $286,483.11
.....
Day 926: $993,735.37 (1%) = $1,003,672.73 (MILLION DOLLAR BABY)
Being patient is the most difficult to follow this strategy and I give you below some steps to follow in order to reach that goal:
Step 1: Create a dedicated account for this strategy. It should be different from your main account. You must only use this strategy for this account.
Step 2: Deposit $100 on this account
Step 3: Your daily goal should be 1% of your growing capital. Of course you can do it using a scalping strategy but you can do it also with a few swing trades. At the end when you make your average performance it should be at least 1% daily.
Step 3 bis: Personally I use a swing strategy and identify only 2 to 3 swing opportunity per month. Those swing trades will give you high winning rates with minimum risks. For each trade I can expect hundreds of pips. Don't need to make scalping this way.
Step 4: At the end of the week or the month make a summary of your account performance including floating profit or loss.
Note: If you make withdrawals of your profit it will take more much time to reach the 1 million goal that's why I recommend to use a specific account.
Happy trading !
Eurusd-4
Create your own trading system: entry point # 8We continue to explore different points of entry into the market.
Today I want to show you a complex entry point that arises from the analysis of stochastic cycles.
As you know, the Stochastic indicator shows overbought and oversold zones. But, personally to me, he helps to find important levels of support and resistance.
The essence of the theory of stochastic cycles
The movement of the Stochastic indicator between zones 80 and 20 displays the beginning and end of the wave (impulse, or mini-trend). But, my observation showed that it is necessary to take into account not all the intersections of zones 20 and 80 with the Stochastic indicator.
The secret of the practice of using stochastic cycles
And the secret is simple: you need to take into account only those highs or lows of the price at which the stochastic indicator began its journey from zone 80 to zone 20 (down), or from zone 20 to 80 (up).
That is, we do not know when the growing price movement will end until the stochastic, starting from 20, comes to 80, and decreases back to 20 (the bullish stochastic triangle). Also with a falling motion, it will end when the stochastic crossed the zone 80, dropped to 20, and returned back to 80 (bearish stochastic triangle).
Support and resistance levels
As you can see on the EURUSD chart there are a lot of highs and lows in prices. There are many different methods of applying support and resistance levels.
Personally, I like my method - drawing support and resistance levels according to the highs and lows of the stochastic cycle.
The reversal line is the level of the stochastic maximum or minimum, which, as a rule, occurs at the base of the previous pulse. The logic is simple: if the price was able to absorb the previous movement, then a turn in the opposite direction is likely.
How to trade
There are several regularities for entering a trade in stochastic cycles.
1. Bullish and bearish triangle
We waited for the stochastics from 20 to rise to 80, and to fall to 20, entry into the purchase.
We waited until the stochastic dropped from 80 to 20, and rose to 80, the entrance to sales.
2. Retest level
We buy if the price has returned to the previous top of the stochastic cycle.
We sell if the price has returned to the previous low of the stochastic cycle.
3. Entrance to the rebound from the pivot line
We buy when the price bounces from the reversal line.
We sell when the price bounces from the reversal line.
Indicators:
Stochastic, 15.3.3.
Timeframe: H1
Currency: EURUSD
Personally, I only trade the retest level - this is a more likely signal.
Rules for entry into position:
We buy if:
The Stochastic has formed a bullish triangle;
We are waiting for the price to fall to the previous top of the stochastic cycle, we enter the buy.
We Sell if:
Stochastic shaped bearish triangle;
We are waiting for the price to rise to the previous low of the stochastic cycle, we enter the sell.
Exit position:
You can use a fixed profit, or trailing stop.
(Review) Definition trend and change of trend ( Trend reversal)(Review) Definition trend and change of trend ( Trend reversal)
EX:
Discussion:
Downtrend - Definition
A downtrend comprises a repeating sequence of:
1) A downward extension
2) A swing low
3) An upward pullback
4) A swing high
A downtrend ends when price breaks the swing high which leads to the lowest swing low of the trend
Uptrend - Definition
An uptrend comprises a repeating sequence of:
1) An upward extension
2) A swing high
3) A downward pullback
4) A swing low
An uptrend ends when price breaks the swing low which leads to the highest swing high of the trend
EX: Prior analysis ( Downtrend)
- Countertrend
- Reversal trend:
- Downtrend forming=> Sell
- Continuous downtrend
Please support the setup with your likes, comments and by following on TradingView.
Thanks
Create your own trading system: entry point # 6We continue to study simple market entry points with you.
It is very difficult to find the direction of price movement in the Forex market. That is why the indicators of the triangulation of the moving average look very good in practice. The difference between triangulation MA (TEMA) and simple MA is obvious.
Indicators:
TEMA, 100.
Williams% R, 5, hlc3.
Timeframe: D1
Currency: EURUSD
The essence of the idea: the search for points when the price returns to the indicator TEMA.
The TEMA indicator shows us the priority direction of opening deals. He very well shows the turning points, and the edges of the flat. And we will look for the entrances to the market using the Williams% R indicator.
Rules for entry into position:
We buy if:
The price approached the TEMA indicator from above;
We are waiting for the Williams% R indicator to cross the -80 values from bottom to top, and buy.
We sell if:
The price approached the TEMA indicator from below;
We are waiting for the Williams% R indicator to cross the top-down values of 20, and sell.
Exit position:
The exit from the transaction can be the opposite signal of the intersection of their zones indicator Williams% R. You can use a fixed profit, or trailing stop.
Create your own trading system: entry point # 5We continue to study with you the simple market entry points.
Today I would like to show you a very easy pattern for making money on the movement of the exchange rate - entry after a price rollback.
Indicators:
MACD 4C with a period of 8, 100.
Timeframe: M15
Currency: EURUSD
The essence of the idea: the search for entry points after the impulse, at the end of the price rollback.
This idea is very simple to understand: you need to wait for a strong impulse up or down, then wait until the end of the price rollback, and enter in the direction of the previous impulse.
Rules for entry into position:
We buy if:
MACD 4C was green for more than 9 bars (impulse up);
MACD 4C draws red histograms of more than 6 bars (case 1);
After that we draw a resistance line at closing prices (see line chart).
We enter into purchases on the breakdown of the resistance line (Case 2).
We sell if:
MACD 4C was red for more than 9 bars (impulse down);
MACD 4C draws green histograms greater than 6 bars (case 1);
After this, we draw a support line at closing prices (see line chart);
We enter sales on the breakdown of the support line (Case 2).
Exit position:
The exit from the transaction can be at a fixed profit, or use a trailing stop.
Create your own trading system: entry point #4We continue to look for your entry points into the market.
I bring to your attention an effective pattern of work in the flat. Traders who work in both directions name a swing - traders.
Indicators:
CCI with a period of 100, hlc3, levels 100 and -100.
Timeframe: H4
Currency: EURUSD
The essence of the idea: the search for entry points in the flat, after the breakdown of the trend line.
Once again I remind you: you need to look for deals only after the breakdown of the trend line, otherwise there will be too many unnecessary signals to enter. If the trend line is broken, the trend line may expand, so a flat is likely.
Rules for entry into position:
We buy if:
The price is near the support level;
The CCI indicator shows two touches of the -100 zone (case 1);
We enter the purchase at the intersection of the indicator CCI zone -100 bottom-up.
We sell if:
The price is near the resistance level;
The CCI indicator shows two touches of zone 100 (case 1);
We enter sales at the intersection of the CCI indicator of the zone 100 from top to bottom.
Exit position:
The exit from the transaction can be based on a fixed profit, or on the reverse intersection of the zones with the CCI indicator.
Create your own trading systemA trading system is a set of trading strategies for different phases of the market, or one strategy with a complex way to support transactions.
Trading strategy is a trader action plan.
The structure of the trading system:
1. The choice of a currency pair for work, or several currency pairs.
2. The choice of timeframe for trading, or several.
3. Trading time.
4. Actions to prepare for trade: carrying out technical analysis, viewing the economic calendar and studying important news, viewing the opinions of expert analysts, compiling a trader's journal.
5. Rules for opening positions: the presence of the main signal at the entrance, the search for confirmation signals, an additional signal (if necessary).
6. Rules for the management of capital and risk.
7. Rules of exit from the position: one or more signals to exit.
8. Analysis of transactions: search for errors, deviations from the selected plan, entry in the trader’s journal.
To become a system trader you need to solve a few questions for yourself:
1. What will I earn money on? What financial instrument do I understand: EURUSD or GBPUSD? Will I trade in gold or oil? Will I choose one or more currency pairs?
2. What timeframe will I look at for analysis? If I am a scalper, then M1, M5, M15. If I am a position trader, then D1 and H1. If I am a long-term trader, then - 1M, 1W, D1.
3. What time is convenient for me to work in the foreign exchange market? Will I be sitting in both sessions: American and European, or is it better to trade in the Asian session?
4. What will I look at before trading? What do I need to prepare for trading? Will I watch the news, read the opinions of other traders, view the economic calendar? Will I make a daily trading plan with a forecast of the course of the selected currency pairs? Will I write everything in the trader's journal?
5. What is the main idea (pattern) I trade? Do I have a main input signal? How many signals do I need to enter the market?
6. How much volume do I enter the market? What leverage can I afford? Will I place a stop-loss order? What will I do if my daily trading plan is wrong?
7. What is my signal to exit a position? Will I use partial order closure? Will I trawl my position?
8. Am I a disciplined trader? Do I analyze my mistakes? Do I keep a trader's journal?
To answer all these questions and create your own trading system, you need to try different options, and finally decide what is right for you personally.
In my next training posts I will try to give you the answers to the questions above so that you can find yourself in the Forex market.
Create your own successful trading system!
HULL Moving Average StrategyThis is my strategy based off the Hull Moving Average, created by Alan Hull.
www.fidelity.com
The HMA is extremely fast and accurate in determining price reversals - I exploit this quality and add the ability to select a granular TimeFrame to use for the HMA calculations (ranging from 1m to 1D). The HMA can be painted on any TimeFrame. When the HMA indicates a price reversal, the strategy waits for the current candle to close before entering a trade.
Target profits and losses can easily be set, as well as: Leverage, % to risk per trade, trailing stop entry point, trailing stop offset, Spread, Commission, and more!
The indicator works on any currency pair (excluding metals) and as low as the 5m timeframe.
Elliot Wave Alternation Elliot Wave Alternation
The guideline of alternation states that if wave two of an impulse is a sharp retracement, expect wave four to be a sideways correction, and vice versa. Figure 22 shows the most characteristic breakdowns of impulse waves, both up and down. Sharp corrections never include a new price extreme, i.e., one that lies beyond the orthodox end of the preceding impulse wave. They are almost always zigzag (single, double or triple); occasionally they are double threes that begin with a zigzag. Sideways corrections include flats, triangles, and double and triple corrections. They usually include a new price extreme, i.e., one that lies beyond the orthodox end of the preceding impulse wave.
EURUSD - SUPPLY & DEMAND ZONE ANALYSISHi traders.
Whenever you are looking at a technical level, always ask yourself the following:
- Am I buying at a potential bargain/wholesale/discount price? (supply or demand zones)
- Why is there more likely to be more supply/demand orders at that area? (new traders entering/traders taking profit)
- What are the underlying fundamental/sentiment drivers that should push price in my favour? (interest rates, business cycle, risk on/risk off)
If all 3 are in your favour, take the trade, manage your risk and go for more than you've risked.
Always remember this trade is only 1 trade in the next thousand you're going to take.
Process over outcome!
Assessing your Trading Journey!! Are you moving forward?SELF-DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY
Assess your Trading Journey!!
Whether you are new to trading, or you are a veteran everyone needs to constantly improve and developing themselves and their trading. Would you expect to become a brain surgeon after attending a weekend seminar and reading a few books? So why do so many people expect to become market experts within a short period of time?
Trading is a journey. We must have steps in place( Trading Plan) in order to achieve trading success.How long does it take to become a competent trader? This will all be determined by the individual. Below is a quick guide line:
Years (0-1)
Spend the time and effort in creating a Trading strategy that suits your personality and lifestyle
Educate yourself on basic trading books, podcasts, you tube videos and seminars.
What asset class will i be trading?
Determine whether you will use Fundamental or Technical analysis?
Will i be a discretionary or use a mechanical trading system?
Open a demo account and learn to use the software and execute orders.
Start using a trading journal.
Buy self help books and listen to motivational you tube videos
Towards the end of the year you will know whether trading is for you or not.
Year 2
Fund your trading account with a small amount of cash.
Continue learning by reading trading books, attending seminars, Podcasts, forums, watching you tube videos and listening to motivation videos
Start to understand the importance of psychology in trading
Back test your strategy and gain more confidence in your strategy
Develop a trading plan
Year 3
By this time you should have created a strategy that fits your personality and life-style.
You will be starting to make small gains
Improving your trading psychology
Improving your trading plan
Years 4............
At this stage you should be taking a regular profits from the markets
Continue learning through books and listening to motivational videos
Always looking at ways to improve your trading strategy and yourself
The above is just an example. There are many more steps that you can take in your trading journey and this will be determine by the individual trader :)
Follow your Trading plan, remained disciplined and keep learning !!
Please Follow, Like,Comment & Follow
Thank you for your support :)
This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
Majors, Minors & Exotic Currency Pairs |Ben WrightSELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY
Majors, Minors & Exotic Currency Pairs | BEN WRIGHT
Currency Pairs
a) Popularity
A currency pair is the structure of the currencies, which are traded in the forex market.
According to the latest report of United Nations, there are 180 currencies around the world and
the illustrated currencies are the top 8 traded bills in Forex. The currency pairs are popular as
they are used for the diversification of the as multiple currencies are involved in it. It can also
work as a hedging tool to avoid the risk in the forex, which is generated due to the presence of
several transactions.
b) Groups
There are three types of currency pair groups present, which are major groups, minor groups and
exotic groups.
Major groups
Major currency pairs are those groups, which have US dollar on in its pair. They are also the
most traded currency pair in the FOREX. Some examples of major currency pairs are EUR/USD,
USD/JPY, and GBP/USD etc.
Minor Groups
Minor currency pairs are those, which do not contain the US dollar as the major currency. The
mostly traded minor currencies are UK pound, Euro and Japanese Yen. EUR/GBP, EUR/CHF
and EUR/CAD are some examples of minority groups.
Exotic Group
Exotic currency pairs are those, which have one major currency and one emerging currency.
These pairs are not traded frequently due to the presence of low liquidity in these markets. So me
popular exotic currency pairs are EUR/TRY, USD/SEK and USD/NOK.
c) Volatility
Volatility can be defined as the rapid change in the liability due to the presence of economic
conditions of the country. For example, the GBP/AUD is the highly volatile currency pair as the
economy of UK is a bit unstable after the Brexit. The least volatile currency pair is EUR/GBP as
the after effects of Brexit will take time to reach the International market.
HAPPY TRADING :)
"The best traders have no ego.You have to swallow your pride and get out of the losses" Tom Baldwin
The best Van Tharp's Quote!! Read all his books!SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY
Van Tharp “When you understand what’s involved in winning, as do professional gamblers, you’ll tend to bet more during a winning streak and less during a losing streak. However, the average person does exactly the opposite: he or she bets more after a series of losses and less after a series of wins.”
Over the 18 years of trading the Futures/ Stocks and Currencies market, Van Tharp's books have help me immensely.
I suggest you read his books. Some of them are listed below;
Trade your way to financial freedom
Super Trader
Trading Beyond the Matrix
Safe Strategies for financial markets
Financial freedom through electronic day trading
I have a large collection of trading books. If anyone needs suggestions on great trading books i would be happy to send you a list :)
Scalping with Reversal StrategiesReversal strategies suggest that markets tend to revert, i.e. a negative movement will be followed by a positive movement, and vice versa. To examine whether markets tend to be trend revert or trend succeed (i.e. a positive movement is followed by a positive movement and a negative movement also by a negative one), we need to check historical prices for evidence of such behaviour. Then, we need to examine whether this behaviour is more likely to occur compared to a random selection, such as a coin toss.
To do this, we first need to understand the notion of probability. In general, probability is the possibility of an event occurring, expressed as a percentage of total possible events. For example, the probability of tossing a coin and getting heads is the possibility of that event, i.e. 1 out of the 2 possible outcomes (heads or tails). Thus, the overall probability is ½ or 50%. In a similar setting, the probability of getting the number 12 in the roulette is 1 out of a total of 36 outcomes, hence the probability is 1/36, i.e. about 3%.
An interesting complication of probabilities is that if they are independent, i.e. if the previous outcome does not affect the current outcome, such as in coin tossing, roulette, and the lottery, then we can simply multiply the events to get total probability. For example, the probability of getting two consecutive heads is ½ multiplied by ½ which gives us a total probability of ¼ or 25%. This is useful in understanding how often price movements can be viewed as random or as following a statistical pattern.
To elaborate on this, I have employed EURUSD data to examine whether there is evidence of a reversal activity in the pair. As the table below shows, there is evidence of such behaviour only in the 1-minute chart, where reversals are observed in the data. Otherwise, the percentage of trend reversals appears to be very close to 50%, i.e. being random.
EURUSD 1-minute 30-minute 60-minute 4-hour 1-day
Probability 42.1% 51.0% 50.6% 50.2% 51.5%
Random No Yes Yes Yes Yes
The same holds for the USA500 index as the table below shows, albeit it suggests that reversal strategies can be non-random at the 30-minute interval as well. However, despite their statistical appeal, these strategies are not as successful as expected. As the graph in the start of this post shows, the strategy can be successful during some periods while it can be terribly disastrous in others. For example, while it worked for the 1-minute chart in the EURUSD, at times very successful, reaching gains in excess of 3%, it dropped to just above 1% in the end.
EURUSD 1-minute 30-minute 60-minute 4-hour 1-day
Probability 39.6% 44.9% 48.0% 49.0% 51.1%
Random No No Yes Yes Yes
The USA500 1-minute and 30-minute charts record a similar response: the 30-minute chart, when the probability is closer to 50%, records much worse performance, while the 1-minute chart provides a good start but ends in disappointment.
So what does this tell us? Like all trading strategies, reversal strategies can be successful in some instances and unsuccessful in others. The analytics above suggest that reversal strategies are unsuccessful in longer horizons and hence there appears to be no reason to follow such a strategy. In contrast, 1-minute charts allow for a better implementation of such strategies, as historical data show. The success of the strategy appears to be more pronounced in the EURUSD case, albeit also having its ups and downs. Consequently, in addition to specifying a correct timeframe, traders need to be very careful in drafting their strategy and adjust it quickly to how the market reacts. Remember that no strategy is full-proof and fast adjustment is something which can make or break a trade.
Nektarios Michail, PhD
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
13 tips for tradersI had this on my hard drive, I thought I would wipe the dust of it and write in in a clean manner in a post, helps me think more clearly.
I need, and everyone can benefit from (new intermediate advanced legend even), having all of this in their mind:
1) Advice that trading is 95% psychology ===> Throw it in trash container
Worse advice I have ever seen, or I totally missed something.
Anyway, simple proof that this is all a load of feces: 5% of the population are psycopaths (not the murdering kind) so if this was that important they would all driving roll royce's. Also I am not a psycho (I think) and I do not have much issues with this... I guess not beeing dumb enough to go ALL IN *100 helps.
Also... then, let's just let a bot do the trading.
Making lists like this learning more everyday and always evaluating our own performance and track record, filter what does not work in certain market conditions... This matters 10000000 times more than "muh feeling :'("
2) Look for ideas opposite to yours, especially beginners (less than 1000 hours trading/learning)
Watching what others are doing helps, and when you have an idea looking for views opposite to yours really helps.
Famous billionaires do this alot. Especially they surround themselves with people that view the world differently.
Of course, do not waste time arguing with bagholders, and sadly alot of ideas opposite to yours you might find are trolls drawing arrows pointing up to unrealistic targets, it could even convince you that the "opposition" are clowns and there is no way you could be wrong, so do not fall for that trap. Just because someone is stupid does not mean they are always wrong. Consider bad TA as 50/50.
3) Noobs want a sure thing. Good luck with that one.
4) "It is impossible or super hard to make money you are competing against the best" ==> Trashcan advice...
First, for lighting fast scalping they are using microwaves now... You are not going to win, sure.
But not only is the competition really not that good (maybe I am a little biased here idk), but you do not even have to compete with them. Big money buys, just follow the momentum, ride on their backs.
Forex is full of huge money (central banks, international companies buying a currency) they are not trying to rip traders off by hunting their stops, they actually need to exchange currencies, nothing more.
Beeing arrogant and thinking every one is a dumb ape but you is probably a big plus :)
All that matters are facts, "Is this pattern profitable?" "What is the winrate?" "What is the risk reward I get on average" "How long does the trade last?" "What are the fees?" "What are the odds of a massive selloff?".
5) "We dropped 90%, this HAS to be the bottom. How much further can we drop?"
We can drop another 90%. And another 90%. And another 90%. And so on.
I did not find any statistics but I am pretty sure that looking at ANYTHING that lost 90%, you would find that the vast majority of the time it was not "a huge opportunity" well it was, but not for buyers. Afaik some great traders made and make big money by shorting dead trash before it goes to zero. If a company is dead, how do shortsellers find buyers? Because to sell you need a buyer. Well, all the idiots that skipped math class and think "this is a great opportunity".
Quit trying to fool me, I am insanely bad at maths, how can you drop 90% if you alreayd dropped 90%? How many more times can we drop 90%? * points and laughs with his redneck friends that only have 5 great-grandparents *
x is a real positive number (R, +, .).
y is an integer.
x^1 > 0 since we have said that x is >0 and x^1 = x
Now, consider x^y > 0. If that is the case, x^(y+1) >= 0 since x^(y+1) = x^y * x and the product of 2 positive number is positive. And if the result was 0 then it would mean than 1 of the 2 numbers was 0 (I think I don't need to prove this) so it will be > 0.
There are plenty of stories of money managers that fell for "it CANNOT fall lower" and got destroyed. The internet is full of bagholders that get destroyed all the time with that insane logic. I do not even profit from this... Maybe I should rethink my whole strategy, when I see the sheer amount of bagholders with "buy the dip" mentality I could profit from...Might have been wasting my time this whole time when I could just short bagholder crypto's/stocks. Well maybe not crypto's as they are long sideways (complacency) lmao complacency @ -95% :D
6) "Soooo this means... y can be as high as we want it to, or in other words the number of times we can go down 90% before touching 0 is INFINITE."
I do not know what the "record" is. I know that some companies have started at 10000$ and more and did not disappear even when their price was at 10 cents, that is a drop of 90% 5 times in a row.
There are several examples, but 1 I see alot on social networks (lots of experts were recommanding to buy the dip "opportunity of a lifetime" when it dropped 90%)
Of course it made 5 90% drops in a row looking at bottoms, but if we look at bounces from the tops after it bounced, it is obviously going to be more than 5.
You just... cannot make this up..
And there are people defending it and claming they did the right thing when they "bought cheap" and are thinking of their yacht color etc. I cannot make this up.
7) Use excel. Have a process. This kind of stuff.
Here is what I have for 1 of my strategies, I just wrote it down yesterday, helps me think more clearly and stop thinking about it:
Pre-entry: Check previous occurrences on the chart, do some TA. Note where structures are.
Entry: Entry is on the level or if we're past it a little after previous low.
Target and stop loss: Initial target T1 is next structure, usually 1% for FX. Set stop loss to get a reward:risk of 2.
Trade management: Close half at my target 1, stay until final target as long as the price stays above 0,382 to 0.5 fib.
Here is an example of a winner I would have shorted following that strategy:
Another one:
8) Money is made missing out.
You make money when you miss out.
Let me type this a second time:
YOU
MAKE
MONEY
WHEN
YOU
MISS
OUT
"You missed out" that sentence... wow.
I do not know about others, but when I miss out a move, I like it, I am happy now, I really am. Because I know I am filtering all the bad trades. If even some good ones get caught, then I must be doing a good strict job right?
Let's check the Bitcoin chart real quick. Here are a few moves I missed out:
a- False break
b- Buy the dip
c- Big money is stepping in
- Yes, people really thought a major bull market was starting. Easy to say how foolish that was in hindsight, but back then I was pretty lonely saying that was a bull trap. Even got banned from TV for calling it a bull trap.
9) Do you want to have a life? Or be exceptional at one thing?
Having a life translates too: beeing basic sheeple that tries to mirror the people around him to avoid feeling different, does not have it in him to do whatever he wants but a slave to what others think of him/her, and has a boring depressing life he hates and should hate. Be a sheep or be a winner, your choice.
10) Day trading is bad, you can only make money bla bla bla.
The only reason why daytrading is less profitable than say swing trading is spreads. I do not have the exact numbers here, but a broker analysed the millions of trades his clients took, and the majority of losers... Their losses equaled the fees... You aiming for an intraday 0.3% move and the spread is 0.02%? That is 6.6% of your profit. It can add up really fast. You need a large edge and alot of "margin" as in much more profit than losses to not get hit by fees. I was daytrading a couple of months ago, I filtered so much I had 3 trades a week. And all winners. 3. In a week. "More is better". There is NO WAY that someone making 10+ trades a day is only taking really awesome trades and not giving up alot of his profit to his broker, unless he is trading crypto on Gdax/Bitmex but crypto trading is dead now.
I did it all, and it all works, from scalping for a few seconds to holding for 2-3 months. But you have to spend a little while writing down what you want to do, make sure the fees are small compared to the profit you realistically aim for.
11) Become a specialist.
Find 1 strategy and spend all your time on that.
Or find 1 market... but that one... Nah find 2 markets... What will you do when your market is sideways/dead?
I have 1 single strategy, I am learning about other ones at the moment but I only really have one.
12) If you are new... go for a SIMPLE strategy, do not try to reinvent trading and be greedy.
These are the strategies I am looking at:
- My strategy is picking tops and bottoms where reversals happen (advanced, I would not recommend to most :p)
- I am learning about hidden divergence (trend continuation) (intermediary difficulty)
- I am interesting also in continuation inside bars when there is strong momentum (beginner friendly)
Actually my strategy has to be one of the hardest there is. I use divergence as a filter + additional reason to go against the trend. I have become an amateur-expert at reversals.
I know, this is terrible, every one says not to go for this, but it worked for me till now. I still can use ALOT more experience. Maybe one day I will call myself an expert.
This strategy, if I am correct, is where greedy noobs get slaughtered. It is not easy, it is so dangerous. Sure you look at the chart and think "oh these divergences pop out, I could easilly buy here and sell here".
Or "This was a clear bottom/reversal I could easily buy here". Nope. Sorry. You could not.
What I started with was basic trendlines. I would look for anything bullish and buy when the trendline is touched, then sell when it goes ballistic, if it drops below the line I AM OUT. I was not very excited about making money when I started, but I really really did not want to lose any. I think this is the approach people should have (right?).
Here is an example of a trade I took a year ago before I got bored and switched to another non recommended highly dangerous strategy :D
13) Trading is easy, but it takes time, and all these other qualities you have heard about.
Take something simple: Support and resistance. Pretty basic. Just horizontal lines.
Well, I think I am someone smart, I am a very fast learner, and I do not exagerate when I say I spent THOUSANDS of hours analysing support and resistance. Plus at least several hundred looking at RSI divergence alone. Plus hundreds looking at market life/cycles. Plus hundreds looking at different market conditions. Plus hundreds looking at moving averages. In total I am at 5k in a year.
To become an engineer, you will need 5 years (is this the same in all countries? Can't be much different). You get 200 class days a year, 8 hours a day + 1 for homework (well maybe some people need more idk OR skip all lessons skip homework and rush rush before exams works too I guess) so that's 1800 hours a year or 9000 total. Of course you learn alot of useless stuff, but when you start working you have to learn your new craft anyway.
Would you let an 18 yo surgeon on his year 1 operate on you? Would you expect him to reinvent surgery? Yes actually, but not in the good way :D
Now trading does not require 10 years of studies (hey especially if you full specialize on 1 thing and 1 thing only), but I think you will need a couple thousand years under your belt to really know what you are doing.
If you are lucky and have the qualities of a good trader in you as you start, and go for that 1 simple strategy and nothing else and respect all the rules (easy as you already have all the qualities) you could start making money pretty quick but not too quick (you have all of the qualities = you don't risk too much when you don't know what you are doing), you might get hit when a bull market turns to bear, but you will not get hit hard as you have all the qualities a trader needs. Otherwise, it will take time (or beginner luck), and in both cases before being really good you will need a couple thousands hours under your belt.
So, the best advice you could get: if you do not like this, forget about it. Do not force yourself. The power of greed is not going to turn you into a millionaire even if you really really want to. It will turn you into a hobo thought, for sure.
[DXY] Correlation with other pairsHi guys !
This is an other simple chart to explain the correlation between DXY and other pairs. As you know, the best exemple is with EURUSD. When EURUSD goes up, DXY goes down, and when DXY goes up, EURUSD goes down. This is because in the DXY (Dollar Index), there is more than 50 % EURUSD.
The U.S. Dollar Index is calculated with this formula:
USDX = 50.14348112 × EURUSD ^(-0.576) × USDJPY ^(0.136) × GBPUSD ^(-0.119) × USDCAD ^(0.091) × USDSEK ^(0.042) × USDCHF ^(0.036)
Thanks for your time guys !
Indicator Review : MACDTechnical indicator: The MACD
What does it represent?
The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator is one of the trend indicators. The MACD corresponds to the difference between two exponential moving averages of different periods (the most common are 12 and 26 days)
It is a complementary tool to moving averages that allows you to anticipate sales and purchase signals via the study of the crossover between the MACD curve and the signal line or discrepancies
How to use it?
Two ways to use it:
Study of crossings:
When the MACD line crosses the signal line upward, it is a buy signal. Conversely, when the MACD line crosses the signal line downward, it is a sales signal.
Study of divergences:
Deviations is another type of signal that can be detected using MACD curves. These signals, historically very powerful, make it possible to detect a possible significant reversal of the trend. A divergence is a technical term that describes the price of an asset that follows a trend opposite to that of an indicator.
In conclusion, the MACD it one of the most widely used trends indicators but it isn't self sufficient, you have to pair it with other such as CCI.