PREDICION FRIDAY - EURUSD wedge breakoutTraders,
First REMEMBER: These predictions are just for the fun. And are not actually trade's i look to take. It is for building my discretion into the markets and note things to keep improving my trading. ENJOY! :)
Daily:
The daily price is very bearish and putting in some desceleration candle's. This usually means the bulls are getting out of their positions which means selling pressure. The price is near the descending trendline which is pretty respected during the previous outside returns. This is also a nice indication. The price also touched the 50% retracement. The 50% retracement is not a fibonacci number but it is very respected in the markets.
The 20 EMA Is also touched with an Doji signal.
240:
The price is creating a nice wedge pattern. The 50% retracement is hit with a rejection candle with a big wick on the upside of the candle which means sellers where active after the bulls where pushing the price up!
The 100 EMA seems is also respected.
Potential entry:
It could be an entry after the wedge pattern is broken to the downside.
Potential targets:
Targets i would've looked to set into the next previous support. (The red line, scroll to the left to see the support)
Potential stoploss:
Stoploss i would've look to set 1 ATR (240 chart) above the high of this potential retracement. This because than i put my SL above all these levels i used for my intial analysis.
Eurusd-4
EURUSD - ex. of WICKOFF ACCUMULATION for DISTRIBUTION 4/10/2019HELLO TRADERS!
EXAMPLE HOW SMARTMONEY ACCUMULATE TO DISTRIBUTE MORE.. AS U CAN NOTICE WICKOFF ACCUMULATION SCHEMATIC WAS IN THIS PLAY..
ALL LIQUIDITY AS ABOVE SO BELOW WAS PICKED UP BY SMART MONEY ON WAY DOWN, NOW SINCE WE START OCTOBER, AND DXY HAS DROPPED, THEY PUSHING PRICE HIGHER TO ACCUMULATE TO DISTRIBUTE MORE...
CHECK OUT LAST EURUSD MARKUPS WITH SM CONCEPTS ATTACHED BELOW... THERE IS STILL A GAP FROM 2017 WHICH WE EXPECTING TO BE FILLED IN NEAR FUTURE..
GOD BLESS U ALL!
20191001 10pm Dollar falls with lower Fed Rate ProbabilityThe dollar peaked and broke down on October 1, 2019 10pm as Fed Fund Futures indicate a jump in probability from 39% to 62%. This was a good signal to go long EUR and buy the pullbacks on an hourly timeframe.
Probabilities of a 150-175 Target Rate on October 30, 2019
09/30/2019 0 0.395517
10/01/2019 0 0.62
10/02/2019 0 0.769655
10/03/2019 0 0.887241
Source: CME FedWatch Tool www.cmegroup.com
EURUSD Potential 5th Wave Short on 5min timeframeAfter a nice bearish move on EURUSD our Elliott Wave Indicator Suite has labelled the Elliott Wave Count and our Probability pullback zones. The wave 4 found resistance in our Red zone, which represents a 75% probability that this Forex pair will go onto to hit our Automated 5th Wave target zone. Included in the indicator suite are also, our special Elliott Wave Oscillator which came close to breaking the rules and if indeed the oscillator breaks the 140% line then the trade is invalid. We also have our Special False Breakout Stochastic which helps identify strong trends in either direction. The when the wave 4 pulls back against that trend and crosses in the opposing over bought/sold zone then the probability it wants to return to strong trend is high.
Watch the video tour of our Elliott Wave Indicator Suite for TradingView >>HERE<<<
EURUSD, DOWN DONE!I use Alligator as a dynamic Support/Resistance.
I use trendline to confirm the medium term of trend.
and its work! :)
when the price running below the Alligator, i will hunting the point to make a Sell transaction, i will open Sell when the price make a new Lower Low.
and its done, price go down :)
Happy Trading All :)
Three Percent Trades: Educational PostThis is an example of how we calculate range movements on a breakout. It comes down to simple math to calculate a measured move.
We simply take the high and subtract it from the low of the range. Then you add the high plus the difference to get your measured move.
If the trade moves in your favor you will want to add to your winners as it trends higher. You should add to your position on future breakouts of consolidation, and on any sign of weakness we sell half our shares to lock in profits and play with house money.
Following this will help protect your hard earned capital and allow you to let your winners run.
EW Analysis: OIL + EURUSD + BTCUSD In Positive Correlation?!Hello traders!
Today we will talk about correlations in different markets!
Correlations are very important to recognize the direction. There are positive and negative correlations, but what we currently see in the FX market (EURUSD), Commodity market (Crude oil) and Cryptocurrency market (BTCUSD) is that they are in tight positive correlation! So, if we respect what market is doing and considering Elliott Wave bullish setups, then we can expect a bullish continuation for the next few weeks soon!
As you can see, Crude oil has clear five waves up and three waves of correction back to very important 50%-61,8% Fibonacci retracement, which means that it's already formed a bullish setup and it may easily continue higher in the upcoming sessions!
EURUSD is still forming the final wave (c) of a correction that can retest 50%-61,8% Fibonacci retracement and 1.1000 support level at the beginning of the next week, from where we can expect to follow Crude oil within an uptrend!
And looking at BTCUSD, just like EURUSD, it can be ready for a decline into wave (c) to a complete a three-wave corrective setback, where 50%-61,% Fibonacci retracement and 10000 level can be tested before an uptrend resumes together with Crude oil and EURUSD.
That being said, there are no tick by tick correlations, but from our experience, they always somehow get caught in the end.
However, there's nothing confirmed yet, but if Crude oil stays above wave (c), and if in the meantime EURUSD and BTCUSD bounced from projected support levels in an impulsive manner, then we can easily confirm a bullish continuation!
Be humble and trade smart!!
Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
EW Analysis: The Connection Between USD and BitcoinHello traders!
Today we will talk about US Dollar and Bitcoin!
We have noticed very interesting patterns and correlation between US Dollar and Bitcoin.
In the first chart we can clearly see bearish setup on US Dollar after that sharp and impulsive decline followed by a three-wave a-b-c expanded flat correction back to ideal 61,8% Fibo. retracement. At the same time, in the sceond chart even EURUSD can be making bullish setup after that strong five-wave rally followed by a three-wave a-b-c decline with a triangle in wave "b" back to ideal 78,6% Fibo. retracement, which indicates a corrective drop!
So, based on USD correlations, seems like USD Index can see some weakness in the upcoming sessions at least towards 97.00 - 96.50 area, while EURUSD may start recovering back to 1.1250 highs or maybe even 1.1300 area!
Well, as you can see in the third chart, when EURUSD turned down into a correction, even BTCUSD made a bigger and in our opinion corrective decline down to 9500 level, ideally for wave C of a big bullish triangle pattern, which can be seen in our previous idea! So, according to correlations with EURUSD, we believe that even BTCUSD can see a bigger recovery soon, ideally back to 61,8% - 78,6% Fibo. retracement and 11200 - 11700 area for wave D!
That being said, while USD Index can be headed lower, watch out for the recovery on EURUSD and BTCUSD in the upcoming week!
Bu humble and trade smart!
Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
Lessons on Support and ResistanceSomething went really wrong last night during the student meetup session.
This was the topic on Support and Resistance I love to cover and teach my students the support line with the clock is the 2nd chance entry for me to engage in a buying opportunity and Magic Candle should appear on the support line when the market break and close below the consolidation that signals a potential bullish flag setup.
So here it goes.
Mirror levels, How it can save you years and thounthends of USD.Today I want to share with 1 one type of key levels and also explain why it's so profitable for you to use it. This knowledge will save you years in trading and thousands of dollars.
For a start lat`s discuss some fundamental rules in trading:
1. We trade probabilities. It means it's impossible to say with 100% accuracy current signal will close with profit or not but it's possible to say that if we open 100 entries we will close 50% ... 60% or 70% entries in profit.
2. You don't need to hunt for 100% accuracy. That's one of the most common mistakes of freshers because if you will learn what is Risk / Reward you will understand how really you can make money in trading. You can be profitable even if you have 30% — 40% of profit deals if you take enough risk/reward.
Example of risk-reward. Just imagine that you have a risk per 1 position $100 and you always set potential profit (Risk/Reward (R/R)) 1 to 4 (in 4 times bigger) $400.
If you will get 3 losses and 1 positive entry you still will be in profit. Calculations: -$100 -$100 -$100 + $400 = +$100. It is only 25% accuracy.
3. You always need to use the same risk per 1 position only in that case your mathematical expectancy will work. I will write more about it in the future posts if this idea will get more than 100 like.
When we trade key levels we get:
- Accurate entries.
- Low predictable risk.
- Potential profit is in many times bigger than a risk.
Mirror level is: Support become Resistant or Resistance become Support .
How you can find a mirror level? Drow key level and wait when the price will break it. Below I will show you how I do it. Key levels better to build on:
- Trend change points
- Many daily candles bounced from one level.
It will be the most powerful levels which accumulate a lot of volumes.
Examples:
EUR/USD:
Gold:
SP 500:
OIL :
BTC/USD:
You can see that this system works on all markets.
P.S. It is only a first part about mirror levels. I will write more about: how it`s better to find levels on a chart, meanig of it and how big players accumulate volume using such type of key points if this post will reach 100 like.
P.P.S. Write in comments about what questions you have about Mirror levels.
How to open accurate entries with key support resistance levelsIn this Education posit I want to share with you how to pic best places on a chart. Where to open entries with potential profit in 5...10 times bigger than a risk.
I recommend to use Historical levels or Breakpoint of the trend:
- Most of the retail traders set stop Losses below or above such key levels.
- Stop Losses of retail traders is a Fuel for Big Players.
- You Have low and predictable risk if you open entry after the false breakout of a key level.
How to find such levels on a chart?
- Price bounced from it and started a new trend.
- An instrument made deep pullback from that point.
What can make entry more accurate?
Price sharply came to such level. Moved 2 or 3 Average daily move.
UK OIL Example. 01 Aug 2019 oil rate drop-down 400 pips. It's more than 2,5 average daily move. after a false breakout price bounced up 300 pips. Risk in that entry was 30 pips. Potential profit in 10 times bigger.
Examples:
1. US 2000 Index
Price bounced from the breaking point 1454,6.
2. UK 100 Index
3. Dax
4. EUR/GBP
5. US OIL www.tradingview.com
If u trade such level u can take in 5...10... bigger than you risk.
P.S. Write your thoughts about this strategy.
P.P.S. After 100 like I will write another educational post about my trading strategy and how you can use it.
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE A major mistake traders make is to assume that in order to be profitable you need to use so many tools and it's in fact the opposite.
Let's start off with basic support resistance. We know the market moves up, down and side ways. But it never moves straight up or down. As it moves up or down it will meet levels of support and resistance. It's important you understand where these levels are on which ever pairs you trade.
SUPPORT - you will meet points of support mainly in a downtrend. As pointed out above, you can see there are more points of support than resistance. So remember support will appear below price, below the candlesticks. see it as the floor of the chart.
RESISTANCE - You will meet points of resistance mainly in an uptrend, support is the 'roof' it will appear above price. Price meets head on with resistance levels.
Previous support/resistance turning into future resistance/support - Previous support can turn into future resistance, this is where price will break through this support in a downtrend and the come back and retest this level ( as shown in the chart above) . This previous support is now resistance. This also applies the other way around.
Support and resistance levels are points within the market where price will pivot. There are also levels in the market where price will gain momentum before continuing a move.
You always want to plot these levels on the higher time frames as the levels on the higher time frames will hold more significance. i.e. support on the daily time frame will hold a lot significance than support on the 1hr time frame.
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