AW Dow Jones Analysis - Final Move Before Crash In Progress...In my previous video I highlighted exactly what I thought was going to happen and thus far it has materialized.
The level of detail in that video goes to show how precise AriasWave can be when used correctly.
This kind of analysis cannot be found anywhere and if you think that's funny you should see the bigger picture.
Slowly but surely, I am formulating a view that will more accurately be able to predict the next moves in the market for years to come.
My two favorite charts to understand this process are the Dow Jones and Bitcoin.
With the guide of the 10-year bond yields analysis it serves and the indicator for when the Fed will tighten versus stimulate.
With the help of the US Dollar and Euro analysis I can also make the prediction that a fairly decent bull market awaits us in the years to come.
I have linked some related ideas down below.
Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader.
If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd?
Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
***AriasWave is not the same as Elliott Wave so your counts may differ to mine if you happen to use it.***
D-DJI
AW Dow Jones Analysis - Live Proprietry Analysis Just For You...Let's make sense of this chart right now, that's it no more playing.
My wave analysis skills are sharper than ever, and we are even making profits when I am wrong.
But I am quick to identify and rectify my analysis and the reasoning follows right behind it.
If it don't see it then it can't be made into an idea, but I am showing signs of improvement.
That's to say that I created the wave methodology I use to analyze and trade which is AriasWave.
Please understand that even though I may appear to seem 100% convinced, I am not being funny I am forming conviction which is what is needed to pull the trigger on trades.
I always push myself to do better every day because this to me is a form of art, and art in all it's beauty is never perfect.
However, the underlying methodology is, and I continually attempt to use to make the most accurate predictions you will see anywhere.
That is how I know I will succeed moving forward.
Best of all you can learn it too!
Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader.
If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd?
Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
***AriasWave is not the same as Elliott Wave so your counts may differ to mine if you happen to use it.***
AW Dow Jones Analysis - Next Bull Market Closer Than You Think..In this video I do some live analysis as I change the labels for Wave D and explain how we are on the cusp of the next bull market.
Now we are beginning to see a raft of confluence across several markets that indicate that there is not long to go before that happens.
When I see similar things (Not the same) across several charts that start to align it become easier for me to prefer one view over another.
My main goal here is to not miss the beginning of the bull market in Cryptos and have fun in the process of doing the analysis on the other markets.
Refining my ideas takes time as I whittle down the possibilities using the methodology I created.
My analysis gives you extremely unique insights into the markets.
Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader.
If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd?
Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
***AriasWave is not the same as Elliott Wave so your counts may differ to mine if you happen to use it.***
AW Dow Jones Analysis - A Snapshot of the Things to Come...In this video I give you a quick rundown of what I believe is happening overall in the Dow Jones.
Down below I have linked the video that explains the bigger picture since the Great Depression and what I expect to happen in the future.
At current levels we are getting ready to move higher to complete this smaller Wave D.
After this Wave D is over the larger pattern suggests that we will begin to see a series of booms and busts which should send Crypto's to the stratosphere.
I am slowly bringing all my analysis together in an attempt to understand the length of time remaining until the next real bull market begins.
Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader.
If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd?
Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
***AriasWave is not the same as Elliott Wave so your counts may differ to mine if you happen to use it.***
Meta and Tesla Priced richly again, dow ignored, fear lowForward growth seems to be priced back into these hot high volume in the news stocks. Both Tesla and Facebook/meta have almost doubled in the last month.
Dividend dow is not shunned and ignored as hot stocks are back in style.
Fear in vix and junk bonds is low.
Market Update 11/12/23 With Time Stamps0:00 DXY
2:30 APPL
3:36 NASDAQ
5:10 BTCUSD
8:15 DIA DJI
9:05 What I want to see with the DXY
10:35 What I want to see with the VIX
13:00 HSI Hang Seng Index
15:15 GOLD XAU
16:36 MARA
18:40 NVDA
19:12 DKNG
19:34 PYPL
19:52 Closing/Good bye
Just an update from yesterday. Most things seem to be going as expected during this new year.
I still expect the DXY to drop to 98.3 or 99.6 before trying to make a good move upwards and possibly bringing the market down, but I am still looking for a potential reversal at 12.324. We are currently under this target and that is why I say reversal. In my mind and at the moment, the odds of the DXY continuing further down are 70/30.
Will the dollar continue to plummet in 2023? Plus, a look at...Traders,
Happy New Year! It's been a terrible year for crypto, the markets, and the global macroeconomic environment. But the good news is that I believe we have left most of the negative declines behind us ...at least for a bit.
So, in this video, I'm going to look at what I see in 2023 for the U.S. dollar, the housing market, Bitcoin dominance, the stock markets (DJI, SPY, Nasdaq), and more.
Stew
Market Update - BTC, ETH, DXY, DJI, NDX, SPXQuick market update of weekend price action primarily focusing on BTC.
The expectation is that bearish deviations are starting to show up on the 4hr
a smaller retracement is expected. Still general bullishness in the market,
however, we have outlined some levels to focus on primarily 17.1k and 17.45k
Keep an eye on the DXY and expect some inverse correlation as usual
Market Update 11/30/22 Timestamps BelowReal support for Vix is below at 19.8 and 19.4 with the strong trend line at 17.6. Though Powell did have bullish comments today, the price movement of the VIX supported the likelihood of a market move upwards more so than a market move down.
Time Stamps:
VIX 0:00
APPL 11:00
NASDAQ 14:39
DXY 15:40
BTC 16:50
SPY & DJI 18:22
S&P 500 Price Action & Economic Data An overview of the market technical analysis from the major indices on the first day of the week prior to major economic data, the NFP. What will impact the market movement this week? We will be looking closely at the commodity market, bond yields, US Dollar and the Gold markets. We also touch on AMD stocks as our watchlist for this week.
ROARING 20's. WHY ANOTHER BULL MARKET is upon us.Market shocks and drawdowns are designed to shake you out.
Charts are pointing to continual asset inflation this decade.
#DOWJONES to $64,000 was a general target I had in mind a few years ago.
NOW we have confirmation this could indeed play out over the coming 5-7 years
#FTSE100 to break 10,000 and indeed we have a target of over 12,000
#DAX to $25,000
again seemingly absurd numbers
but not so absurd in a historical context.
Is the Blow-Off Top Beginning?My apologies for forgetting to start my TradingView stream guys. I'll get my act together and promise to catch you in the next video.
DJI and Bonds: Get your popcorn ready. In this short video I focus on the UK and US 10 year bond markets in comparison to the DJI.
All these markets are linked up in the background - at the speed of light.
There are no predictions here - only probabilities and speculation.
High volatility is expected at the opening of the markets tonight, 16th Oct 2022.
Some are predicting a 'Black Monday' type event next week, which doesn't have to happen on a Monday. I take no sides. I'm only protecting my losses in short positions and happy to let winners run.
Stay safe, wash your hands, protect your positions, don't burn your accounts. 😁😂
Disclaimer : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on speculative opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
Trendmaster Market Update - Monday October 3rd -Welcome to Monday October 3rd
The Q3 close last Friday showed a complete route in the general markets as the quarterly close saw the DOW, NQ, and SP down 16%, 17%, and 20% from their summer rally highs. The Dollar Currency Index is still fully parabolic from it’s double bottom from May 2021. The collapsing value of the Swiss Bank Credit Suisse has brought to problems in Deutsche Bank and several other institutions across the European continent. That being said everyone is bearish and expecting more downside and historically Q4 is the strongest quarter.
*Breaking* - hastily announced emergency FED meeting (US) has been called for today at 17.30 UTC
-Markets
Both the Nasdaq and the SP500 are at critical support. The Nasdaq closed the quarterly under 11k signaling the lowest close in 2 years however still holding above it’s 9.7k pre covid dump high. A gain of 11.5k is the only thing that matters to the upside -
The SP500 also closed the Quarter under 3.6k another 2 year low with only the pre covid dump high at 3.4k to offer any levels of importance to the downside. -
The VIX is still hovering around the low 30s and at a potential failure point. A loss of 29.5 and the major support there could see some bullish relief as markets have been generally crushed and fear and panic are reaching 2008 levels. Anything above 35 and the bearish markets should accelerate to the downside. -
-Crypto
BTC is still hovering near its main resistance as 20k which is the September, July, and Q3 open. This is the main area to break out from which upon its gain should see a test of 21.2k at the least. To the downside 18.6k has remained an important swing in price action and between that and 18.4k there any major losses or level there should flush the price back into the 17k zone. -
ETH although retracing more than BTC following the highs from the summer rally, ETH continues to hold above the June/July range high at 1.27k. Any loss of level around 1.22k should see a retest of the previous range levels at the low 1100s. To the upside a regain of the floor of 1.4k could see ETH rally to its September open levels of 1.55k. -
BTC1! - BTC trading on the CME is opened up monday with a slight gap just above 19.2k at that is the Daily, Weekly, Monthly, and Quarterly open. The CME Report showed nothing significant other than Exchanges/Brokers being extremely short as of last Tuesday. Asset Managers/Institutions are still completely out of position on their longs that were added in November ‘21, and April, August of this year are severely under water. CME traders want the regain of 20.4k to test up into the 22k zone. There is also a very old CME gap from 17.6k to 17k which is still untouched from the 2020 runup. Any fill of that gap would be critical in the overall price and a buy back or continued loss of that zone would dictate BTC’s direction for the coming quarter. -
Spotlight
NFLX - Netflix has been playing out a beautiful 17%+ range for the past 6 weeks with major support at 215 and resistance at 250. Buying higher lows from the support and Selling lower highs from the resistance is still viable until proven otherwise. A loss of the 215 low should see a retest of it’s June monthly open at 198 while conversely a breakout of 250 could see the gigantic gap between 252 and 330 finally filled. A breakout however, is only likely in a general market rally. -
Financial Events
The emergency FED meeting today at 17.30 UTC is of critical importance to the markets as the financial system is showing signs of cracking. The only item listed under Matters to be Considered is “Review and determination by the Board of Governors of the advance and discount rates to be charged by the Federal Reserve Banks.
Other important items this week:
Wednesday Oct 5th - Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday Oct 6th - Initial Jobless Claims
Friday Oct 7th - Unemployment Rate - Forecast 3.7%
Chart to Watch
The DXY Dollar Currency Index is generally the canary for market Bullishness or Bearishness as it has an inverse relationship with the general markets. The fact that we are at the midpoint of the “Dot Com Bubble” high structure is a frightening wake up call. It has continued its fully parabolic move since the double bottom back in May 2021 and shows no signs of slowing. The important swing low at 111.3 needs to be broken and retested bearishly which would signal a general correction in the DXY and see much needed relief flood into the markets. It has currently only tested structure at 111.6 in the past few days of retracement and looks primed to send off to new highs. The eventual parabolic break of the DXY will be a catalyst for a significant bear market rally. -
Market Update 9/13/2022: What You Need to KnowJust watch the video. That's Why I make them: To not type. I'm not time stamping this one because is meant to be watched in order. If you want to know what to look for, you only need to spend at most 4-6 minutes watching.
Take care and good luck on your trades.
I stream every week day from 9:15 to market close.
Market Update: Major Indicies,Appl&BtcSkip to 1:00 to get into the action.
As usual, I don't want to type a lot. Its hard to type what I say in 20 minutes, especially when I talk fast in that time.
Pretty much looking for where Apple starts along with there the SPY starts. Before watching the video, as a new viewer, it is important to know that I heavily weigh Apple as the main indicator of market direction in my analysis. If you stick around or join the streams, you will see why.
For the indices (assuming we start bullish), the NDQ still seems to have the most possible promise tomorrow followed by the S&P and then DJI. I explain this in the video.
Another big indicator for possible movement will be the VIX. Long story short (explained in video) we are at an strong area that I think will most likely start under and send the market up. But there's no reason to really worry about it, because the position is supposed to taken/considered depending on where it starts and obviously it hasn't started yet. (Starts at 3:10AM EST)
Per usual, I have the Last Idea linked below as well as both of my BTC Pitchforks from January. Check them out if you like, it makes it 10x easier to figure out the macro situation on BTC and where the ranges are.
Take care, have a good night/morning. I will see you all tomorrow at 09:15 AM EST.
DJI, SPY, NDQ, BTC, NVDA, SPXS, VIX17 minute video. A lot of information packed in here.
I don't like typing things out when I have 20 things to say, so I'm not really going to do that.
TLDW; Things look bad.
If this video was useful to you, boost the idea so that more people find these the ideas and join the the streams everyday at 9:15 EST: 15 minutes before the market opens.
BTC Comprehensive UpdateYes, this is a 20 minute video. But I speak quickly. This Idea is meant to be watched as a video. If you do not watch the video and only read below, you will not get much from this idea or may get the wrong idea.
Overall I have been short (Not in market) since the reversal in the stock market on April 5th and 6th. I go over all this in the video and I talk fast. So there is a lot of information to see.
I don't want to put investment strategy short, because I don't really want to say that where the price currently is, is a good spot to short. It seems odd to too heavily before any non crypto markets are open, but after they closed for the weekend. Considering the market was pretty obviously bear on Thursday and Friday.
Possible targets if we drop below 28k and have some bad price action are then to around 26.9k and most likely between 22.35k and 23.3k.
For me to feel bullish on BTC I would have to see several things. It is too complicated to explain without showing the chart, but I mention it in the video.
It is worth the watch. I reference the most important things that I look at to determine bitcoin price movement.
Based on the Schiff pitchfork, It looks like the lack of movement in BTC is actually distribution and that we have failed to hold the key channel (Jun 1st). We also had a hard rejection of the top of the current channel on Jun 6th.
If you have any questions feel free to leave them below.
Showcase: Trading the e-mini Dow Jones (YM) 22-06-201. Did a long trade (paper trading) on e-mini Dow Jones.
2. Reason for the long trade:
a) Price do a higher lower; a UT bar appears but the next bar overtake the UT.
b) Volume is supporting the upward move.
c) Strong support level at 29910 range.
3. Trade entered with SL @ 50pts and TP @ 75pts; as price move upwards with unrealised profit, the SL is revised upwards to minimise the losses and eventually lock-in the profit.
4. Price eventually do a pullback after breaking the recent Resistance (29966 range); our SL got hit and we exited with a realised profit of 24pts.
5. Price may move upwards from hereon; it is OK to exit with a small profit rather than be ambitious.
Is the Market is a Ponzi? The Printing of Money and Growth8-minute video where I gloss over the big picture stuff relating to the Markets and as they relate to the M2 (WM2NS) Money Stock.
This is a High Time Frame analysis of the Market charts like the Dow and SP500 vs the Printing of Money and the increase in Money Supply.
Basically, the entire market exists as a function of printing money, organic growth hasn't been around for decades and our current highs
are almost entirely because of the increase in Money Supply. The scariest one is the Covid dump and how even though the global economies
were in many ways shut down, the market experienced a massive Bull Market.
The fact is, that in relation to the Money Supply the Dow, SP500, Bitcoin, everything is pumped by printing money
05/16/2022 Pre Market ThoughtsMacro: Bearish
Micro: High Bullish Potential
I am more bullish than bearish currently.
I would like to see a start in APPL above 148.75. I think that can take us to 162 at the top. I think if Appl breaks though, we could see others like Carvana and Bill go up 30% to their respective supports.
I outline more of the specifics in the video.
I hope you all are doing well.