DJI (2H): That mini crash - what does next week hold?Well, there is trouble in the markets for sure. Last week saw a meltdown of about 8% from one peak, on the DJI.
My crystal ball broke a long time ago, and I'm not getting a new one from Ebay. 😂
The video outlines how vigilance on the 2H timeframe paid off for anyone who wanted to short this market.
So - what about next week (beginning Mon 24th Jan)? No predictions, all you get is probability and some of my experience. (Note the disclaimer below)
There is a massive gap between the 2H ATR line and the lowest price point. That in conjunction with the deep dive (much of it being panic), suggests that dip-buyers (unless they've wised up) are gonna plough in.
What those folk are largely unaware of is that Wall Street traders can not only sell but short sell.
What if price gets above the 2H ATR line next week or the following week? It doesn't mean a lot because there is the mother of 4H and 6H trends in the bigger picture. In fact there has already been a major shift in market sentiment on the 1D time frame. That's something to do with the FED, and interest rates etc. But in technical analysis causal factors are not so important.
A grind down further from the current price point is also possible.
My overall estimate is for rebellions. It could be very wild out there next week. That's good for scalping if you know what you're doing.
Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
D-DJI
GETTING READY: Looking back to 2020In this video I look back to early 2020, to see how the 40% collapse in the DJI happened.
Am I preparing for a collapse or correction? Yes I am. Preparing does not mean I am predicting.
What is see looking back is, that a 2 hour ATR trend south had developed. It is the best fit. I had tried 1H trend but that did not fit well enough, where price would stay below he ATR line.
This index has been pumped up on implicit guarantees coming from the FED. We saw a similar scenario in the mortgage markets around 2008.
Readiness is everything. When you're in a trend down, you won't really know for sure because you can't see the whole trend, like we see now looking back to 2020.
This time around, I'm getting ready. The last major correction occurred in Feb 2020. So I am on high alert all now. I'm watching every 2hour switch.
Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
Stock Indexes have peaked. A slow roll-over has begun.In this video:
* Current price action of the dollar coinciding with that of the markets and an understanding that the Fed may raise interest rates soon, all indicate that the broader markets will begin to roll over and turn bearish.
* Cryptos may still have time to complete one more bullish cycle before the markets turns extremely bearish.
Stock Market Review - Underwhelmed - Still Bearish - No ChangeIn this video:
* We must review the stock market indexes and sentiment in order to accurately gauge our crypto space
* Overall, nothing has changed. Still bearish!
UPDATE: Apparently, TradingView is still having video issues. Subscribe to my substack below to view the video there or any of my other social media accounts.
- Stewdamus
DJI Dow Jones Tricky Triangle SetupWell, the Dow has enjoyed repeated bull runs. Something about COVID has me uneasy with any optimism. Understandably the NIKE and European sectors are suffering worse. Although as inflated as the dollar has become, it keeps dodging the "big one." Perhaps it will not affect the market, but for the short term, I have spotted a 4HR Triangle on the Technical.
Expecting a duration of 10 days on this next move.
US Indices Weekly Analysis | November 2, 2021A big week for the stock market! We got nonfarm employment, FOMC statement/interest rate decision, trade balance, nonfarm-payroll and unemployment rate. A lot of potential catalyst hitting the market this week. Defiantly stay sharp and keep a close eye on the market.
DJI LONG Until January 2024? *TrickyTriangle Gannzilla 35741.16 Bermuda Bahama bears run from the drama! Bull Market has picked up more steam a bull breeding pen in Pamplona. Watch out brittle European Bear, the American Bull will not be sitting dinner.
Combined with Gann technicals and weekly triangle pattern, the current, uptrend is on. Macro setup from higher lows on the monthly chart indicates promise for a MAJOR 3 year continuation of the current (11 year bull swing ) on Dow Jones Industrial Average $DJI
WOW. Bull market in full swing 2021.
DJI Dow Jones Bulls Are Out of Testosterone WEEKLY CHART $DJIThere are only so many cows that a bull can stud. The DJI was a stud for 12 years. But this old bull has to be put down. What will the stimulus do to fuel the market? Is it a shallow attempt to keep and old bull trend going?
Weekly analysis using Gann Fan on 581 day rally shows sharp ledge forming. Expecting this shelf to start a new swing. The big swing (recession)
DJI DOW JONES Bulls Have a lot of JUICE ; 40,000 by MAY 2021What people have not learned about the Bulls? They keep on COMING! Ever seen a cow studded by a man bull? Just watch out for the pointy end! But seriously, everyone doubts the dow. Might as well spell the next short "DOWnt" because Bulls are still in control of the weekly chart.
Take Profit May 2021
40,000
US Indices Weekly Analysis | Oct 11, 2021All three major US indices are testing a key support level as we speak. Can price hold these levels and bounce off?
On other note, Chinese Stocks, particularly tech companies, have also seen some strong gains the past two weeks. Does that mean we could be forming a bottom on the Chinese markets? View our analysis now!
StockMarket Update (#33) : Toppish Signals Flashing !!Here's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
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Phil
ARIASWAVE MARKET UPDATE - USD\DOW JONES\BITCOIN\STELLAR XLMAs we head towards the end of the month, we can see the tide turning in the US Dollar.
This is important because the US Dollar is the driving factor when it comes to ALL MARKETS .
AriasWave joins the dots and brings you invaluable insights as to where these markets are heading.
As the US Dollar continues to decline in Wave E, it is very obvious that something BIG is brewing under the hood.
This is very apparent using the AriasWave methodology because of what the pattern suggests lies ahead over the next few years.
Markets will become increasingly volatile from this point on due to underlying economic factors that the world will be facing during this time.
I have linked some previous ideas below to help you get up to speed if you are new to AriasWave.
Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader.
Just remember: I am not a financial advisor, I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd?
DOW JONES - The Complex Nature Of This Wave D Correction...In this video I give you a basic understanding of this Wave D pattern in the DOW JONES.
To fully understand this pattern you need to learn the waves according to AriasWave.
Elliott Wave is an Out-Dated and very Ancient way of observing price action, so please do not confuse AriasWave with that garbage.
We are seeing an expanded Wave D. When I say expanded, it has expanded 4X internally.
This is the type of insight that will allow you to profit on every upswing we are about to see, and not only on this chart*.
One of these corrections will fill the gap mentioned in the previous teaser chart linked below.
We are heading into some turbulence as we make our way into the final waves of this move since March 2020.
Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader.
Just remember: I am not a financial advisor, I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd?
*The number 4 is very important right now and refers to how many opportunities there are left to make profits on swing trades before we top out.
It doesn't matter how you make your money.I'm responding to a few on how to survive and make some gains in wild markets (note the brutal disclaimer at the end).
The DJI has been pretty wild so, I use it as an example. Figures shown here are not my own. I only use the figures to explain why it doesn't matter how you make your profits. HFT's will do similar things, so why can you not?
Well, I show the value of the ATR on the 3 min time frame as a way of making an exploit. I have to say that this is mainly for day traders with a lot of 'bottle'. So in the most recent scenario, I show how 403 points could have been made shorting. I other scenarios there are slight gains and some losses. No trading strategy could ever guarantee 100% gains.
I show a technique for deciding on an entry point (long or short).
Exit points can be managed based on the RSI or trailing down and allowing price movement to stop you out.
Is this about luck? I don't think so. Luck is about rolling dice. This is a calculated logical strategy - so your not throwing money randomly in the market. The use of the ATR, RSI and retracement criteria at the start of the trend change means no die are being rolled here. This methodology is about readiness and positioning.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
StockMarket Update (#29) : Early Signs of ValidationHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users.
Kindly,
Phil
Fee, Fi, Fo - FED!In the vid, I overview interesting moves in the DJI. Tensions are rising.
The latest market burn down doesn't look great for the FED. But.. but.. when you have access to literally and endless supply of money, you can do whatever you like (almost).
The FED has been throwing money into the so-called economy in the hundreds of Billions per week. I'm using economy in a very broad sense.
They're 'tinkering' with stock markets, REPO markets, Bond Markets - you name it, they're in it. Of course in some instances you won't see the 'hand of the FED' because they're using a dozen or so 'tools' as they call them. So you might see the tip of the tool, but not the 'hand of the FED'.
If they FED was not in the DJI at all would it have re-inflated that much. Not many (sensible) people believe that. It's basically free money at near zero interest rates and a generous REPO market. In other words its like going to a casino and the house says, " No problem have as many chips as you want! "
This is crazy stuff. Reality always comes back around to bite.
Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which has a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
DJI (1D): Watch the Heiken Ashi CandlesThis is a short and different take. The DJI could be about to correct - significantly. No promises.
The Heiken Ashi candles are telling us something. Sound traders will listen to their 'voice'.
Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which has a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.