WALL STREET (DJI) - IN CRISISBRACE! Anything can happen in the next few days. The DJI is at a critical zone on the weekly. 'Everybody' is waiting for more QE and lowering of interest rates. In other words the FED is likely to blow the bubble even harder.
But there are crises in the bond markets and currency markets that weigh on this market. So fear is not just about stocks in the market itself.
Disclaimer : This is not a recommendation or encouragement to trade securities. Your losses are your own.
D-DJI
REPOCALYPSE NOW!This is serious. Find out what 'REPOCALYPSE' is about. Protect your positions very carefully.
Get real - I don't know when it's happening nor does anybody else.
REPOCALYPSE is not just doom-saying stuff, though it might appear sensationalist. This is reality mates.
Those who keep there heads in the sand and do not take protective actions will be flushed out.
DISCLAIMER: All statements here are over-simplifications of very complex issues, and are speculative opinion. This is not constructed as advice for making decisions about trading in securities. Your losses are your own.
Declaration : This post is consistent with Tradingview's house rules on text-based analyses.
DJI -Wall Street - collapsesI had flagged that the DJI and NASDAQ were in trouble some time ago. I told everybody to 'GET READY'. Some were hypnotised by POTUS's assertions that the American economy is doing "fantastically well". Yes he said so and I have the reference.
The data on ISM that triggered this plunge/correction was not brand new information at all. It's only because the ISM release went viral that there was trouble. Anybody who was anybody who was looking at non-mainstream media would have known that manufacturing and lots of other things were troubled in the US economy. Some haven't even taken note of the $23 Billion in debt as yet.
Others were punching the air about low unemployment figures - which were fake. Yes fake - because they were revised down weeks after the markets had pumped north (and nobody took notice of reality). The true unemployment rates are much lower, and when that goes viral there will be even more trouble.
Just to be clear - contrary to Mr Trump's opinions - the DJI is not the 'economy'. It is sentiment about 'the economy'. Right if you don't here from me again, it's because I've been locked up in an American gulag, for disagreeing with POTUS. LOL!!
Disclaimer : This is not a recommendation to trade securities of any kind. Trading is a high risk activity, with 70-90% of all traders consistently losing money. Your losses are your own. Sue yourself if you lose your money.
DJI - GET READY!What's moving this market north? Like the Fanny Mae fiasco back around 2008, the 'implicit guarantee' is at play. Go read up what that is about. In essence this is about an idea that the FED will bail out big corporations. The top industry analysts can find nothing of real substance in the fundamentals to move the DJI (and S&P) north.
I explore the 4H and 1D time frames for opportunities to short. Make no mistake, nothing I do or say is a prediction. All my analyses are probabilities based. I look carefully at price action and I am not tied by what indicators are telling me.
Disclaimer : This is not a recommendation to trade securities. For every estimate of probability north, there is a residual probability for the south (and vice versa). If you lose your money sue yourself.
Thoughts on the Dow Jones Heading Into the WeekendHope you guys enjoy the video, be sure to leave a like, comment, and follow for future posts!
The Dow Jones was down about 600 points today as President Trump continued his sparring session with China, and increased tariffs yet again. We can see a dangerous M forming on our 1 day time frame and I indicated crucial support levels with the fibonacci as well as the dashed red line. If those levels do not hold, we will see the Dow take a plummet in the next week, and the talk of a recession may become a reality. Looking at our shorter time frame, we can see the Megalodon timer giving us a green. I hope that this is a sign that buyers will hold the support levels for the Dow Jones, and hopefully the US and China can come to an agreement soon, so that we may continue our bullish run in the stock market!
Our most powerful indicator called the bottom on Bitcoin! Check it out here!
How to compare various instruments in one chartIt is good idea to compare instruments to get a deeper insight into potential big moves. In this 3 min tutorial I show how to create four scales on the right of the chart for four instruments.
To add instruments you use the compare button.
Then us a drop down arrow on the instrument at top left to find Pin to scale.
BRACE FOR IMPACT - BIG FLIGHTS TO SAFETYOf course I've been shouting about Gold and Cryptos before. Why? Why?... some people wanna know what's going on. (TURN UP volume on speakers. Microsoft updates caused a problem)
I posted on the big de-dollarisation war that was happening in the background months ago. I was also looking at the 'war index' in Lockheed Martin.
The smart money has already moved these markets. If you've missed, you're too late.
It is a very unstable and uncertain world now. We have wars of various kinds:
1. Trade wars
2. Currency wars.
3. Cyber-wars.
4. And as of Thursday/Friday, America almost went to war with Iran.
The dumb money is now long on the DJI. Yeah it might break out of 27000 but that's what the dumb money is gonna do.
Last week we saw the German Bund market head into negative yield. This means that investors are willing to put their money in for an initial loss on bonds. Yield curves remain inverted in America.
There is trouble ahead.
Watch where the real big boys are heading. Get smart.
Disclaimer: Nothing here is financial (or other advice). DYOR. This screencast is speculative. No liabilities accepted for your losses. In other words sue yourself if you take a position based on this post and lose your money.
THE FOOLS RUSHED WHERE ANGELS FEARED TO TREAD!!Well, well - 'everybody' (except me), is rushing madly bullish on the DJI, as there is now a 99% expectation that the Federal Reserve is gonna make not one but three interest rate cuts over the next 18 months. This post is relevant to risk management and trading psychology .
The hard evidence is that rate cuts in the similar economic circumstances are followed by recessions. Don't believe me. See it for yourself at the Federal Reserve ! For an annotated version see here .
I can find no hard data that leads me to believe that the US Economy with its $22 Trillion exponentially rising debt , is healthy. There is nothing in the fundamental data that would account for the sort of charge north we saw in the last week. The leap north is simply about greed and hope, that the FED will save the markets - which is not their business.
Central Banks in India and Australia have already cut interest rates. For India the markets went south in response, for complex reasons that may not relate to the DJI. The Aussies are indecisive at this point. Now we have Draghi in Europe contemplating rate cuts.
A fresh round of money printing (aka quantitative easing) is likely to happen. Look, all this stuff is like paddling hard in a canoe against a tsunami. The IMF warned us about the approaching financial tsunami. Instead our leaders worsened the situation by protectionist trade measures. This is what people do: when your life is under threat, you panic and protect your own - instead of cooperating. So - nothing surprising. All the protectionism is a signal to me that something big is coming.
Looking ahead, if a collapse happens (and I'm not predicting), I expect Gold, Platinum, and Cryptos to rocket north. For forex, I expect all /JPY pairs to head south. AUD and NZD pairs tend to move south but the correlation is far from perfect.
DISCLAIMER : This educational post is speculative. Opinions expressed here are not intended as 'advice ' even if so construed. DYOR! Your decisions in the markets are your own. If you make decisions based on this post and you lose money, you are totally responsible for your losses.
DJI (Wall Street) - an important decision point.The chart shows either a wedge (broadening descending) or a parallel channel. It is important because the former more times than not is an indication of probable reversal northward. The latter (the channel) creates more probability for the south.
As many will know much of the volatility in the last few days has been related to the US-China trade talks and uncertainties arising.
Mr Trump has threatened (and part implemented) a new wave of tariffs on Friday 10th May 2019. The price action was actually crazy on 10 - 15 min time frames. Price collapsed to around 25500 and suddenly reversed when the Chinese gave some positive word on outcomes. That word was nothing great.
This market is on a knife edge. It's amusing as it is amazing how 'sentiment' about this trade deal (comprised of hope, greed and fear), rules this market.
The possible patterns shown highlight some of the difficulties in trading. What appears to be a channel could become a wedge. The projections are speculative.
Disclaimer : This post makes no recommendation about direction of trading. My personal position is short which is not an encouragement to short this market. Your losses are entirely your own should you make decisions based on this technical picture.
I SAY THANK YOU DONALD! LOOL!Well, well - I have to thank Mr Trump for breaking the news that he's gonna raise tariffs on China about an hour before the open of the markets last night. The DJI and loads of other markets took a dive. I'm short of course, and trailing a 2H ATR trendline. On open of the markets there was a gap down of about 430 points. Never before have I seen anything like this on a Sunday night.
As usual the bulls did their thing, trying to close the gap but were beaten back badly up to this morning. This does not mean they won't come around again for another bludgeoning.
The bulls had of course been drunk over the last 4 weeks. They were pricing in hopes that the Fed would reduce interest rates. Powell delivered a nasty surprise. Then last night hopes that the China trade deal was coming to fruition got a shower of ice cold water. It's strange but not so strange that traders were gagging for the deal to come through. Reality was that for the last 6 weeks reputable sources knew that the deal was in trouble. Hey ho - I'm not here to stop anybody listening to or reading mainstream media.
My speculation is that Mr Trump knows or knew the deal is dead (or near dead) so didn't want that to hit suddenly on Friday (the big day) - as bad news on a Friday would cause catastrophic meltdown (either on Friday or the following Monday). So methinks the gave a heads up to avoid the bubble popping 'too suddenly' - if there is any such thing. Well, for Donald anything is possible! LOL
Is a crash still possible at all?In this screencast I show two charts where crashes could happen. I focus on Wall Street which - affects markets globally including forex markets.
On the weekly time frame US Oil is beginning to struggle at a 61.8% Fib retracement.
Wall Street is possibly struggling at an important structure level. A whole lot depends on China. But dig deeper. See the CSI300 losing steam with some RSI divergence.
So while one bunch of hopefuls are punching north based on news of the China deal coming to fruition, there are distant influences that could come to bear on Wall Street from the Chinese markets.
Then enter the 'inverted yield curve'. fred.stlouisfed.org This is the most reliable indicator of recessions (not necessarily market crashes). I am reliably informed that the inverted yield curve has heralded every economic down turn since the second world war. But life is not so simple. Some say that the yield curve needs to remain inverted for 3 months if it is to be meaningful. Well, I don't know. In any event the Wall Street cycle is overdue its 'economic winter' just based on its own cyclical pattern (which is between 5 to 7 years). We're past year 10 at this point in time. Stock markets head south before recessions are realised.
The Big Fudge! Right - so you wanna make money in these markets. All I can say is that these are dangerous times. This is certainly not ' The Big Short' any longer. I call it the big fudge. Now we're not allowed to say who exactly is doing the big fudge - cuz it'll probably break a whole bunch of laws and policies. But it's not illegal or wrong to point to a big fudge. Like it or lump it. Something corrupt is going on out there. If you don't believe me - find experts who know more on the inside story. Just to be clear - it isn't anything to do with Tradingview.
NO CRASH!Well well, Wall Street (DJI or US30), has defied logic! Whoever said markets are about logic? Not me. This market has surprised me in the way it obeyed 'wedge theory'. It broke out north, out of the wedge - like a bat outta hell! But now it's stalling on the 8H time frame. This has happened before and it was meaningful. I show the price action.
S&P500 upside is limited for now We have rallied a long way since the lows, markets are not linear and the price will have to digest the move.
What will likely drive the markets higher is earning, a contrarian but realistic outcome when you consider that wage growth is outperforming inflation by almost 3%.
This, of course, would likely lead to a price rally while earnings multiples are falling!
Dow Jones dropped More Than 600 Points in Two Days. What's Next?Here is our forecasting report in the video format on Dow Jones Industrial Average on 31 Jan 2018. Please enjoy.
Good trading
NinjaSingapore
31 Jan 2018
DISCLAIMER
Our research materials are provided for information purposes only. They should not be used or considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. The research materials are prepared for general circulation and general information only. They do not take into account the specific investment objectives, investment knowledge and experience and financial situation of any recipient. Investors seeking to buy or sell any securities discussed or recommended in our research materials, should seek independent financial advice relating thereto and make his/her own appraisal of the tax or other financial merits of the investment.
Any opinions expressed are subject to change without prior notice. Our research materials are based on information from various sources believed to be reliable. Although all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that such information is not misleading, we make no guarantee, representation or warranty, expressed or implied as to its accuracy, adequacy or completeness. We do not accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or incidental, special or consequential loss of any kind arising out of the use or reliance on the information in our research materials.