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D-DJI

PURE ADDICTION! To be exploited. Yep - the algos play out the addicitons of their masters to cheap money: low interest rates, REPO pumping, and the implicit guarantee from the FED. But an itty bitty virus that disrespects world leaders, has everybody flummoxed and reaching for safe havens. In this screencast I show a bit of algo action and some smaller time frame trends which can last for over a day - quite lucrative. I've adapted to the vacillations of the market as I can't see the sense in waiting ages for decent profits when there is loads of lovely volatility within trend envelopes to exploit in lower time frames. If I can exploit a move of 100 - 200 points in a day or two I think that's fair enough. The greed and hope in these markets have created lovely opportunities - which can be exploited with the right level of discipline.
FOREXCOM:US30Short
by Captain_Walker
DJI - Wall Street - melt up or melt down coming - your choice. Central banks around the world are coordinating in a last stand to prevent global meltdown. So - they're about to decide massive liquidity injections into 'their economies'. China, the USA, Singapore are already on board. Expect Germany to follow cuz the German economy is on the brink of a recession. What this could mean is a number of things: 1. The punters love it - and blow the markets north like nobody's business. 2. The punters reject it - and bail out with cash in hand which they'll pump into Gold (a better investment at this time). 3. Or - heavy volatility in coming days in a massive bear-bull fight, before the markets make a final decision. All of this stuff has been triggered by an itty bitty virus that disrespects everybody. The world is now waking up to how central China is to global supply chains of commodities, manufactured parts, goods and services. No predictions from me - as I have no working crystal ball. Disclaimers & Declarations : This is not financial advice or encouragement to trade in securities. If you act on anything said here and lose your money, kindly sue yourself!
FOREXCOM:US30
by Captain_Walker
NASDAQ: Man and Money v Virus - round 2Man and Money won round one over the virus, propping up markets world wide for short time. The skirmish was one by flooding the markets with cheap money and other means of boosting sentiment. But shortly after round one, the markets began to burn down. A great jobs report in the USA was ignored. A minor 10 min blip north then the markets went south after that. The NASDAQ is certainly the one to watch along with DJI and other 'tech-heaving' indices. Today (Saturday), weekend Wall Street (DJI) has continued it's travel south, losing approximately 100 pts. Disclaimers: this is not financial advice or encouragement to make any particular decision. If you lose your money sue yourself.
NASDAQ:NDAQShort
by Captain_Walker
MAN AND MONEY vs VIRUS! WHO WILL WIN?The picture of the 2019-nCOV is rapidly evolving. Globally there have been >14,000 cases and >305 deaths. The trajectory of spread of this virus has exceeded SARS (2003). In under 20 days there are 14,544 cases. There were less than 20 cases in the same period for SARS. SARS plateaued off at 8,500 cases after 100 days then fell off. What we're seeing in hard evidence is that nCOV is going rapidly exponential - almost doubling in 20 days what SARS reached in 100 days. 8 countries have effectively quarantined China in various ways. AND NOW - China has told everybody to calm down, that it will maintain financial stability and pump their market with USD$173 Billion from Monday 3rd February 2020. The FED and Australia are considering similar moves. The global economic disruption in what was a 'risk-off' situation, is gonna be serious and probably last well over a year. This doesn't mean that the markets will tank over the next year. It means expect bearish pressure. Think also about an 'endpoint'. How will anybody know when it is safe to open borders, trade and travel in China? If the VIX gets above 53 there is serious trouble! Declarations & Disclaimers: For the avoidance of doubt, this post is only about potential impact of a virus in financial contexts. I take no comfort at all in people suffering and dying. Whilst I am sorry about the human consequences, I deal with the markets as an instrument - like any other. It is not illegal or immoral to exploit the movement of any market for any cause. As usual this is not trading advice. If you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
SP:SPXEducation
by Captain_Walker
WATCH OUT - POTENTIAL BLACK SWAN EVENT - VIRUS ATTACKA 'black swan' event is something out of the blue - that creates systemic risk. The 2019-nCOV (virus) is potentially one such thing. The markets have not been prepared for this - at all. Could it be the pinprick that pops the 'tech bubble' that influences markets globally? The shock waves of this itty bitty virus are totally unexpected. I go into some price action in the last few days, on the DJI and explain some of the dangerous features of nCOV. China has basically been quarantined by the international community. This is certainly not good news. It's an unofficial quarantine. Lots of nations have limited contact or isolated China in various ways. The virus is one of the most spreadable in history of all viruses but with a low lethality. That means millions of people could be infected but only about 2% killed by it. And that means the death toll could be serious over weeks, months or years. There is no treatment at this time and no vaccine. Even if a vaccine is developed, vaccinated the whole world is not a workable option. In addition the wide spread of the virus means that it can mutate - rendering any vaccine developed, as ineffective. The next big question is when will this quarantine on China be lifted. It could take months, or probably years - depending on what the nCOV virus does next. There is chatter in the blogosphere that the FED will come to rescue the markets from the virus.. like pfffft! The FED has a lesson coming to them. Disclaimer : This screencast is not intended to advise on taking a position in the markets or making transactions. If you lose your money in the markets, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30Short
by Captain_Walker
2
VIRUS CAUSES WALL STREET TO SHUDDERNews of one person in the USA being struck my a Chinese coronavirus, cause the markets to retreat on a northward charge. Only some 200+ points. Not much but it is significant. The DJI is highly overpriced at the moment for a whole load of reasons, and it's very twitchy. The fact that the markets reacted to this story at all shows the twitchiness. It's just one case. But usually insiders know before the mainstream media what's going on. News is that moves markets, cuz it's about sentiment more than fundamental value. Many things have shaken the market in recent months. People have been watching closely and nervously - guessing what will prick the bubble to cause a pop. Stay tuned. Anything that rocks this market is worth watching for those who need to get out, or short. This is not advice to short this market. If you lose your money kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30
by Captain_Walker
29000 COULD BE THE MOST IMPORTANT NUMBER IN THE WORLD!Get ready! There are only two directions for price; UP or DOWN. In this screencast I show why the zone around 29000 could be the most important. See the broadening wedge. Price could go either way. If you believe that the FED and Mr Trump is gonna save the world, go long at 29000. If you believe a crash is coming take a short. If you believe 29 is a prime number of importance - act on it. :) Friday is not a good day for a crash. So if one has to happen it's better on a Monday. Hmmmm.. crash? What am I talking about!? Some may have heard about that a plane was brought down allegedly by Iranian missiles. This is in the news. American forces tracked a missile from Iran exploding near the location of the plane. An explosion was seen by the military. Remnants of a missile identified as Russian Tor M1 photographed near the crash site. Mysteriously, the supposed missile disappeared and then we're told it was never there. Obviously - it was photoshopped in - innit! I believe anything I'm told - right? Boeing shares rose on news that it was probably a missile that brought down the plane. Nothing surprising there. Anyways, Friday is not a good day for confirming that it was a missile (and I'm not saying it was). Monday - watch out. Disclaimers & Declarations: I've reported only information that is well in the public domain. I do not have any information other than reported facts. I have no way of knowing what reported facts in the media are the whole truth. I have made no political statements. References to Iran are part of what is in the public domain. I express no opinions other than what these matters mean for the markets. As usual this is not a recommendation to trade securities. If you lose our money, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30
by Captain_Walker
TOP 5. SPX: 2019 wrap-up and longer term analysis. 04.01.2020Long-term update with the outlook on my 5 favorite trading instruments. This is a video dedicated only to the US stock market, based on the analysis of SPX instrument. The rest of Four instruments to be analysed in a separate video. If you like what you see, please fell free to hit the Like bottom and share your view in the comments. Disclaimer: By viewing this video you fully accept and agree that it offers general advice only and that trading the financial markets is a high risk activity and that you understand that past performance does not indicate future performance and that the value of investments and income from them may go up as well as down, and are not guaranteed.
SP:SPX
by captain_smollett
WHEN MARKETS GO WILD! The DJI, S&P500, Australia200 and the DAX all went wild today. No predictions in here. This is just the big picture of the daily time frame. I have to say that I am totally surprised by the DJI pump north. This markets is highly overvalued something like 17-19 times that of fair value for stocks comprising it. I won't go on much longer about that, we've seen markets go wild before e.g. dotcom bubble. Theory of curves and rising wedges failed here. These things do no rule markets. The FED has given the implicit guarantee, and the big boys took the markets well north. There's QE4 and soon QE5 coming up. So north is now the greater probability. I'm out because this is a highly unstable situation. Oh - but it's not QE because the FED says so - riggggghhtt! LOL. The POP is coming - and everybody wants to know when. Look, it's like bad weather. You can see the storm clouds gathering but you just don't know when the heavens will open on you with a downpour.
FOREXCOM:US30
by Captain_Walker
REVIEW: DJI (Wall Street), DAX and nuclear options. I've looked into the DJI and the DAX because they are connected. I also considered events affecting the Hong Kong index. In the text below, I consider China's 'nuclear option'. Overall I'd say the probability is greater for the south on these indices (from this point in time). But caution - because there is a residual probability for the north and I can't know how far south the markets may go if the markets are with me. These are very troubled times. 1. The markets are overbought because of QE4.0, lowering of interest rates and high hopes about a China 'Phase one' trade deal. 2. But there is trouble in the Hong Kong Stock market. 3. POTUS signed the Hong Kong Democracy Act which could cause the Chinese to retaliate in some way (nobody knows how). The 15th of December 2019 is an important date on which $160 Billion of tariffs on imports to the USA, get lumped on China or they are withdrawn. If the tariffs are withdrawn, expect markets to head to the moon (stupidly). If the tariffs are applied, expect a correction of some sort. Bond troubles In other trouble China has begun the so called nuclear option of selling off US Treasuries. Note that Treasuries are bonds, which means that money is owed to China by America i.e. they represent a debt owed by the US. Why would China sell off US Treasuries - which are debts owed to China? Perhaps because China expects the US Dollar to be worth less in times to come. It's like this - if I lend you money fixed in USD value, and then you decide to devalue your US dollar by various means, it means I'm getting back less value. For an exploration of Bonds go here . China holds about $1.2 Trillion of US debt. A sell off of US Treasuries is said to destabilise financial markets. How - is a separate complex story. The point is that China's retaliation on the Hong Kong Act could be this 'nuclear option'. The point of all this is that there are complex issues affecting the markets. Disclaimer: Nothing shared here is investment advice or encouragement to trade in securities. If you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30Education
by Captain_Walker
1
TOP 5. SPX special edition from 24.11.2019Weekly update with the outlook on one of my 5 favorite trading instruments. This is a special edition dedicated only to the SPX, based on the analysis of ES1, NQ1 and DJI instruments. If you like what you see, please fell free to hit the Like bottom and leave your comments. Disclaimer: By viewing this video you fully accept and agree that it offers general advice only and that trading the financial markets is a high risk activity and that you understand that past performance does not indicate future performance and that the value of investments and income from them may go up as well as down, and are not guaranteed.
COMEX:GC1!
by captain_smollett
GET READY: DJI correction possibly on 4H time frame.In this screencast I explore the importance of the 4H ATR trend line in association with SqM switches. This is about taking early notice of areas where stuff may happen. The future hasn't been written as yet, and I don't do predictions. What I see is the chance of a 4H trend weakening, based on the historical a patterns of the DJI. If the 4H ATR flattens further then there is increasing probability for the south. But what does that mean? Well, it doesn't mean that the whole market will crash. It means that a correction may be coming up. Note that for any probability estimate in one direction there is a residual probability in the opposite direction. Disclaimers : This is not encouragement to trade in securities. If you take positions in this market your risks and losses are you own. In simple terms sue yourself if you lose money. Approximately 70% of retail traders consistently lose money in trading.
FOREXCOM:US30
by Captain_Walker