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TOP 5. SPX: 2019 wrap-up and longer term analysis. 04.01.2020Long-term update with the outlook on my 5 favorite trading instruments. This is a video dedicated only to the US stock market, based on the analysis of SPX instrument. The rest of Four instruments to be analysed in a separate video. If you like what you see, please fell free to hit the Like bottom and share your view in the comments. Disclaimer: By viewing this video you fully accept and agree that it offers general advice only and that trading the financial markets is a high risk activity and that you understand that past performance does not indicate future performance and that the value of investments and income from them may go up as well as down, and are not guaranteed.
SP:SPX
by captain_smollett
WHEN MARKETS GO WILD! The DJI, S&P500, Australia200 and the DAX all went wild today. No predictions in here. This is just the big picture of the daily time frame. I have to say that I am totally surprised by the DJI pump north. This markets is highly overvalued something like 17-19 times that of fair value for stocks comprising it. I won't go on much longer about that, we've seen markets go wild before e.g. dotcom bubble. Theory of curves and rising wedges failed here. These things do no rule markets. The FED has given the implicit guarantee, and the big boys took the markets well north. There's QE4 and soon QE5 coming up. So north is now the greater probability. I'm out because this is a highly unstable situation. Oh - but it's not QE because the FED says so - riggggghhtt! LOL. The POP is coming - and everybody wants to know when. Look, it's like bad weather. You can see the storm clouds gathering but you just don't know when the heavens will open on you with a downpour.
FOREXCOM:US30
by Captain_Walker
REVIEW: DJI (Wall Street), DAX and nuclear options. I've looked into the DJI and the DAX because they are connected. I also considered events affecting the Hong Kong index. In the text below, I consider China's 'nuclear option'. Overall I'd say the probability is greater for the south on these indices (from this point in time). But caution - because there is a residual probability for the north and I can't know how far south the markets may go if the markets are with me. These are very troubled times. 1. The markets are overbought because of QE4.0, lowering of interest rates and high hopes about a China 'Phase one' trade deal. 2. But there is trouble in the Hong Kong Stock market. 3. POTUS signed the Hong Kong Democracy Act which could cause the Chinese to retaliate in some way (nobody knows how). The 15th of December 2019 is an important date on which $160 Billion of tariffs on imports to the USA, get lumped on China or they are withdrawn. If the tariffs are withdrawn, expect markets to head to the moon (stupidly). If the tariffs are applied, expect a correction of some sort. Bond troubles In other trouble China has begun the so called nuclear option of selling off US Treasuries. Note that Treasuries are bonds, which means that money is owed to China by America i.e. they represent a debt owed by the US. Why would China sell off US Treasuries - which are debts owed to China? Perhaps because China expects the US Dollar to be worth less in times to come. It's like this - if I lend you money fixed in USD value, and then you decide to devalue your US dollar by various means, it means I'm getting back less value. For an exploration of Bonds go here . China holds about $1.2 Trillion of US debt. A sell off of US Treasuries is said to destabilise financial markets. How - is a separate complex story. The point is that China's retaliation on the Hong Kong Act could be this 'nuclear option'. The point of all this is that there are complex issues affecting the markets. Disclaimer: Nothing shared here is investment advice or encouragement to trade in securities. If you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30Education
by Captain_Walker
1
TOP 5. SPX special edition from 24.11.2019Weekly update with the outlook on one of my 5 favorite trading instruments. This is a special edition dedicated only to the SPX, based on the analysis of ES1, NQ1 and DJI instruments. If you like what you see, please fell free to hit the Like bottom and leave your comments. Disclaimer: By viewing this video you fully accept and agree that it offers general advice only and that trading the financial markets is a high risk activity and that you understand that past performance does not indicate future performance and that the value of investments and income from them may go up as well as down, and are not guaranteed.
COMEX:GC1!
by captain_smollett
GET READY: DJI correction possibly on 4H time frame.In this screencast I explore the importance of the 4H ATR trend line in association with SqM switches. This is about taking early notice of areas where stuff may happen. The future hasn't been written as yet, and I don't do predictions. What I see is the chance of a 4H trend weakening, based on the historical a patterns of the DJI. If the 4H ATR flattens further then there is increasing probability for the south. But what does that mean? Well, it doesn't mean that the whole market will crash. It means that a correction may be coming up. Note that for any probability estimate in one direction there is a residual probability in the opposite direction. Disclaimers : This is not encouragement to trade in securities. If you take positions in this market your risks and losses are you own. In simple terms sue yourself if you lose money. Approximately 70% of retail traders consistently lose money in trading.
FOREXCOM:US30
by Captain_Walker
WALL STREET (DJI) - IN CRISISBRACE! Anything can happen in the next few days. The DJI is at a critical zone on the weekly. 'Everybody' is waiting for more QE and lowering of interest rates. In other words the FED is likely to blow the bubble even harder. But there are crises in the bond markets and currency markets that weigh on this market. So fear is not just about stocks in the market itself. Disclaimer : This is not a recommendation or encouragement to trade securities. Your losses are your own.
FOREXCOM:US30
by Captain_Walker
2
REPOCALYPSE NOW!This is serious. Find out what 'REPOCALYPSE' is about. Protect your positions very carefully. Get real - I don't know when it's happening nor does anybody else. REPOCALYPSE is not just doom-saying stuff, though it might appear sensationalist. This is reality mates. Those who keep there heads in the sand and do not take protective actions will be flushed out. DISCLAIMER: All statements here are over-simplifications of very complex issues, and are speculative opinion. This is not constructed as advice for making decisions about trading in securities. Your losses are your own. Declaration : This post is consistent with Tradingview's house rules on text-based analyses.
FOREXCOM:US30Education
by Captain_Walker
DJI -Wall Street - collapsesI had flagged that the DJI and NASDAQ were in trouble some time ago. I told everybody to 'GET READY'. Some were hypnotised by POTUS's assertions that the American economy is doing "fantastically well". Yes he said so and I have the reference. The data on ISM that triggered this plunge/correction was not brand new information at all. It's only because the ISM release went viral that there was trouble. Anybody who was anybody who was looking at non-mainstream media would have known that manufacturing and lots of other things were troubled in the US economy. Some haven't even taken note of the $23 Billion in debt as yet. Others were punching the air about low unemployment figures - which were fake. Yes fake - because they were revised down weeks after the markets had pumped north (and nobody took notice of reality). The true unemployment rates are much lower, and when that goes viral there will be even more trouble. Just to be clear - contrary to Mr Trump's opinions - the DJI is not the 'economy'. It is sentiment about 'the economy'. Right if you don't here from me again, it's because I've been locked up in an American gulag, for disagreeing with POTUS. LOL!! Disclaimer : This is not a recommendation to trade securities of any kind. Trading is a high risk activity, with 70-90% of all traders consistently losing money. Your losses are your own. Sue yourself if you lose your money.
FOREXCOM:US30Short
by Captain_Walker
DJI - GET READY!What's moving this market north? Like the Fanny Mae fiasco back around 2008, the 'implicit guarantee' is at play. Go read up what that is about. In essence this is about an idea that the FED will bail out big corporations. The top industry analysts can find nothing of real substance in the fundamentals to move the DJI (and S&P) north. I explore the 4H and 1D time frames for opportunities to short. Make no mistake, nothing I do or say is a prediction. All my analyses are probabilities based. I look carefully at price action and I am not tied by what indicators are telling me. Disclaimer : This is not a recommendation to trade securities. For every estimate of probability north, there is a residual probability for the south (and vice versa). If you lose your money sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30Short
by Captain_Walker
Thoughts on the Dow Jones Heading Into the WeekendHope you guys enjoy the video, be sure to leave a like, comment, and follow for future posts! The Dow Jones was down about 600 points today as President Trump continued his sparring session with China, and increased tariffs yet again. We can see a dangerous M forming on our 1 day time frame and I indicated crucial support levels with the fibonacci as well as the dashed red line. If those levels do not hold, we will see the Dow take a plummet in the next week, and the talk of a recession may become a reality. Looking at our shorter time frame, we can see the Megalodon timer giving us a green. I hope that this is a sign that buyers will hold the support levels for the Dow Jones, and hopefully the US and China can come to an agreement soon, so that we may continue our bullish run in the stock market! Our most powerful indicator called the bottom on Bitcoin! Check it out here!
TVC:DJIShort
by RandallGurule
BRACE FOR IMPACT - BIG FLIGHTS TO SAFETYOf course I've been shouting about Gold and Cryptos before. Why? Why?... some people wanna know what's going on. (TURN UP volume on speakers. Microsoft updates caused a problem) I posted on the big de-dollarisation war that was happening in the background months ago. I was also looking at the 'war index' in Lockheed Martin. The smart money has already moved these markets. If you've missed, you're too late. It is a very unstable and uncertain world now. We have wars of various kinds: 1. Trade wars 2. Currency wars. 3. Cyber-wars. 4. And as of Thursday/Friday, America almost went to war with Iran. The dumb money is now long on the DJI. Yeah it might break out of 27000 but that's what the dumb money is gonna do. Last week we saw the German Bund market head into negative yield. This means that investors are willing to put their money in for an initial loss on bonds. Yield curves remain inverted in America. There is trouble ahead. Watch where the real big boys are heading. Get smart. Disclaimer: Nothing here is financial (or other advice). DYOR. This screencast is speculative. No liabilities accepted for your losses. In other words sue yourself if you take a position based on this post and lose your money.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Captain_Walker
1
THE FOOLS RUSHED WHERE ANGELS FEARED TO TREAD!!Well, well - 'everybody' (except me), is rushing madly bullish on the DJI, as there is now a 99% expectation that the Federal Reserve is gonna make not one but three interest rate cuts over the next 18 months. This post is relevant to risk management and trading psychology . The hard evidence is that rate cuts in the similar economic circumstances are followed by recessions. Don't believe me. See it for yourself at the Federal Reserve ! For an annotated version see here . I can find no hard data that leads me to believe that the US Economy with its $22 Trillion exponentially rising debt , is healthy. There is nothing in the fundamental data that would account for the sort of charge north we saw in the last week. The leap north is simply about greed and hope, that the FED will save the markets - which is not their business. Central Banks in India and Australia have already cut interest rates. For India the markets went south in response, for complex reasons that may not relate to the DJI. The Aussies are indecisive at this point. Now we have Draghi in Europe contemplating rate cuts. A fresh round of money printing (aka quantitative easing) is likely to happen. Look, all this stuff is like paddling hard in a canoe against a tsunami. The IMF warned us about the approaching financial tsunami. Instead our leaders worsened the situation by protectionist trade measures. This is what people do: when your life is under threat, you panic and protect your own - instead of cooperating. So - nothing surprising. All the protectionism is a signal to me that something big is coming. Looking ahead, if a collapse happens (and I'm not predicting), I expect Gold, Platinum, and Cryptos to rocket north. For forex, I expect all /JPY pairs to head south. AUD and NZD pairs tend to move south but the correlation is far from perfect. DISCLAIMER : This educational post is speculative. Opinions expressed here are not intended as 'advice ' even if so construed. DYOR! Your decisions in the markets are your own. If you make decisions based on this post and you lose money, you are totally responsible for your losses.
OANDA:US30USDEducation
by Captain_Walker
DJI (Wall Street) - an important decision point.The chart shows either a wedge (broadening descending) or a parallel channel. It is important because the former more times than not is an indication of probable reversal northward. The latter (the channel) creates more probability for the south. As many will know much of the volatility in the last few days has been related to the US-China trade talks and uncertainties arising. Mr Trump has threatened (and part implemented) a new wave of tariffs on Friday 10th May 2019. The price action was actually crazy on 10 - 15 min time frames. Price collapsed to around 25500 and suddenly reversed when the Chinese gave some positive word on outcomes. That word was nothing great. This market is on a knife edge. It's amusing as it is amazing how 'sentiment' about this trade deal (comprised of hope, greed and fear), rules this market. The possible patterns shown highlight some of the difficulties in trading. What appears to be a channel could become a wedge. The projections are speculative. Disclaimer : This post makes no recommendation about direction of trading. My personal position is short which is not an encouragement to short this market. Your losses are entirely your own should you make decisions based on this technical picture.
FOREXCOM:US30Short
by Captain_Walker
I SAY THANK YOU DONALD! LOOL!Well, well - I have to thank Mr Trump for breaking the news that he's gonna raise tariffs on China about an hour before the open of the markets last night. The DJI and loads of other markets took a dive. I'm short of course, and trailing a 2H ATR trendline. On open of the markets there was a gap down of about 430 points. Never before have I seen anything like this on a Sunday night. As usual the bulls did their thing, trying to close the gap but were beaten back badly up to this morning. This does not mean they won't come around again for another bludgeoning. The bulls had of course been drunk over the last 4 weeks. They were pricing in hopes that the Fed would reduce interest rates. Powell delivered a nasty surprise. Then last night hopes that the China trade deal was coming to fruition got a shower of ice cold water. It's strange but not so strange that traders were gagging for the deal to come through. Reality was that for the last 6 weeks reputable sources knew that the deal was in trouble. Hey ho - I'm not here to stop anybody listening to or reading mainstream media. My speculation is that Mr Trump knows or knew the deal is dead (or near dead) so didn't want that to hit suddenly on Friday (the big day) - as bad news on a Friday would cause catastrophic meltdown (either on Friday or the following Monday). So methinks the gave a heads up to avoid the bubble popping 'too suddenly' - if there is any such thing. Well, for Donald anything is possible! LOL
FOREXCOM:US30Short
by Captain_Walker