Measuring that Pullback Against Main Trend during the DayQuick tutorial video explaining how I measure the pullbacks during the day to understand normal behaviour of a trend when daytrading. This example was NQ Nasdaq on the 3 minute timeframe
Using Stochastic and Fibonacci Retracement to understand these pullbacks.
The Support and Resistance zones I mention are drawn on the 60minute timeframe. You can learn how I produce these sticky zones by watching the recording of my recent livestreaming education event here on TradingView >>RIGHT HERE<<
Fibonacci Retracement
The Trend is Your Friend: Basic Elliott Waves ExplainedIn this post, I'll be providing an in-depth explanation on Elliott Waves, specifically Impulse Waves and Corrective Waves.
I personally use Elliott Waves a lot, and as it seems like the majority of my followers are beginner traders unfamiliar with the concept of waves, I decided to do an educational post on it.
The concept of Elliott Wave Counts are extremely technical and advanced, so in this post, I'll only be going over the two most common waves: The Impulse and Corrective Waves
Elliott Waves Background Information
The Elliott Wave Theory was named after Ralph Nelson Elliott, who concluded that the movement of assets could be predicted by observing and identifying a repetitive pattern of waves. He was able to identify specific characteristics of wave patterns, making detailed predictions based on the patterns.
Very simply put, the direction of a trend unfolds in 5 waves (impulse waves) and any correction against the trend takes place in 3 waves (corrective waves). The 5 impulse waves are labelled ‘12345’, and the corrective waves are labelled ‘abc’.
*A bear market would show a downward trend, indicating that we’d see five waves down, and three waves up.
Smaller patterns can be identified within bigger patterns. As demonstrated in the diagram above, we can see that the impulse and corrective waves in green, are combined to form a larger wave in black, which is also part of a larger wave in red.
In technical terms, this is the classification of wave degrees. On Tradingview, the smallest to largest, the degree goes as follows: Miniscule, Submicro, Micro, Subminuette, Minuette, Minute, Minor, Intermediate, Primary, Cycle, Supercycle, Grand Supercycle, Submillennium, Millennium, Supermillennium.
The idea of using smaller patterns fit into bigger patterns, can be coupled with the Fibonacci relationship of the waves, offering insight on optimal levels of trade opportunities, and calculations of risk reward ratios (RRR).
What are Fibonacci levels?
Simply put, Fibonacci levels are a series of numbers discovered by Leonardo Fibonacci, in which a golden ratio (1.681) is derived by dividing a Fibonacci number with another previous Fibonacci number.
The Golden Ratio derived through the Fibonacci can be found in predictable patterns in nature from atoms to huge stars in the sky, as nature uses this ratio to maintain balance. Such ratios are very commonly found in the financial markets as well.
Elliott Impulse Waves (12345)
The Elliott Impulse Wave, which unfolds in 5 waves, has a few guidelines in terms of the rules that must be kept, and references to the Fibonacci ratio.
- An Impulse Wave can be subdivided into 5 waves (For instance, the black wave in the diagram is subdivided into smaller green waves)
- Wave 1, 3, and 5 are impulsive.
- Wave 2 cannot retrace more than the beginning of wave 1
- Wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave of the three impulse waves
- Wave 4 cannot retrace below the peak of wave 1
- Wave 5 needs to end with a momentum divergence
- In terms of Fibonacci ratios, there is not set answer, but there are some references we need to keep in mind:
- Wave 2 is 0.5, 0.618, 0.764, 0.854 of Wave 1
- Wave 3 is 1.618, 2, 2.618, or 3.236 of Wave 1-2
- Wave 4 is 0.146, 0.236, or 0.382 of Wave 3, but no more than 0.5
- Wave 5 can be the inverse 1.23611.618 retracement of wave 4, or 0.618 of wave 1-3, or equal to wave 1.
Elliott Corrective Waves (ABC)
When referring to corrective waves, this can include the use of other wave counts. In this post, we’ll be specifically looking at a corrective count also known as the Zigzag.
- A Zigzag is a corrective 3 waves structure that is counted as ABC
- Subdivision of Wave A and C comes in 5 waves
- A Zigzag is a 5-3-5 structure (In the diagram above, we can see the black Zigzag waves, which consist of a 5-3-5 wave count in green)
- Wave B is 0.5, 0.618. 0.764, or 0.854 of wave A
- Wave C is 0.618, 1, or 1.236 of wave A
- If wave C is 1.618 of wave A, it can either be a 3 or 5 waves count.
Application
We can take a look at Bitcoin’s weekly chart as an example of how Elliott Waves work. While I haven’t included the specific counts for simplicity sake, it provides a good idea of how the market moves.
Overall, we can clearly see that the trend is bullish. However, prices don’t always shoot straight up without stopping. It breaks out, corrects slightly, and breaks out again. The repetition of impulse waves, and smaller corrective waves, is what completes the uptrend.
This is why ‘buying the dip’ is a smart move during a bull market. Corrections are inevitable even in the most bullish market, and taking into consideration the fact that the trend is your friend, such corrections would merely be a buying opportunity.
Almost all assets take one step back for two steps forward. This is how the market works according to the Elliott Wave Theory.
Limitations
Elliott Waves have a critical weakness: it’s extremely subjective. Even while looking at the same chart, traders can count different waves, as it’s difficult to pinpoint the beginning or end of a wave. As with many other tools in predicting the market, it seems that the most common case is that traders are almost 100% accurate, or completely wrong.
As such, I personally like to use this tool merely as a reference in weighing out probable scenarios, rather than solely relying on my rather subjective wave count.
Final Remarks
I tried to dissect the basics of the Elliott Wave theory in this post. The concept itself is extremely advanced, and the explanation I provided above is merely the tip of the iceberg. Understanding Elliott Waves, while it’s not a silver bullet in trading, can help traders understand the overall trend, identify probable scenarios, and calculate optimal risk reward ratios based on wave targets.
If you like this analysis, please make sure to like the post, and follow for more quality content!
I would also appreciate it if you could leave a comment below with some original insight.
Fibonacci lesson Updated 2020Hi Traders, here is the full Video Updated Fibonacci Tool Lesson
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Conditions -
1.Wait for confirmation Before Entry ( @ 61.8 or 38.2 ) ** Whichever is lined better with Structure** .
2.Use Market Environment + Market Structure for entry.
3. Trade always using correct risk management!
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Use a demo account to back-test This lesson!
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Predicting, Planning Trading Fibonacci Confluence PatternsTraders, In this educational video, we see an example of predicting a Fibonacci confluence pattern (stepper M pattern ), planning our trades around it with entry and profit targets with high accuracy.
This is indicator free analysis and I have used only standard fibonacci tool and a trend-line. Hope you will enjoy this and find this useful. Hit the like button and subscribe if you found this useful.
Thanks
-Vik
Trendlines, Volume and FibonacciTrendlines are the simplest chart pattern you can find, but they are some of the most widely used, and for good reason.
They highlight a price trend going up, down, or sideways. Which therefore will be used for further analysis and other chart patterns, but what many people don't know are the specifics of trendlines. Firstly, widely-touched trendlines (about a month apart) perform much better than closely-touched trendlines. Trendlines with more touches also perform better than those with fewer. Furthermore, the longer the trendline the better the performance. However, steeper trendlines don't cut - performance usually lacks when trendlines get steeper.
The Gold monthly chart shows a downward channel highlighted by blue trendlines. This channel isn't the best since the breakout doesn't kick in for a couple of years, however, it would have been great for a few swing trades.
Highlighted by the blue notes are regions of high volume at valleys and peaks. Heavy volume at peaks and volumes are good indicators of support and resistance. Represented by the white horizontal lines. However, one important thing to note is that horizontal consolidation regions provide better support and resistance then peaks and valleys.
The HCR is presented by the yellow note and the highest blue note in the chart.
Also shown is the Fibonacci retracement. The Fibonacci retracements of 38%,50%, and 62% are good regions for support and resistance. A stop placement at 67% protects trades 66% of the time.
Bharat Forge - Perfect Example of .618 Bullish Retracement .618 Fibonacci Retracement
Most Popular Retracement
Important retracement for a stock that is selling off after completing a good Rally.
#BharatForge is a perfect example of .618 Bullish Retracement and its amazing to see how prices rallied after hitting .618 retracement
Trade Consideration ( Refer Chart )
Point #1 : A good rally
Point #2 : A sharp Sell-off
Point #3 : Exhaustion Candle with huge volume at .618 Retracement Support ( First Clue from Pure Price Action )
Point #4 : Hammer/Key Reversal Candle with huge volume at .618 Retracement Support ( Second Clue from Pure Price Action )
Point #5 : Huge Volume at two important Reversal Candles ( Exhaustion followed by Reversal )
Assignment for Learners: Identify .618 Retracement on daily chart and post in the comment section
If you have Any Questions, please feel free to ask in the comment section below
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Fibonacci WavesAn idea regarding Fibonacci
I believe the price within the arcs of the fibonacci circle move in waves
With 1.618 being a bearish wave in this case, with a bullish transition to another ring.
There seems to be a clear relationship between 1.618 and .618 its probably simple for someone more knowledgeable in this field which I am still learning.
Explains on chart.
If anyone knows more about this comment please.
How To Day Trade Consolidations Profitably With #FibonacciTraders, Several fellow day traders have been asking to show how they can day trade using fibonacci based analysis which I use for swing trading. The fibonacci based analysis is applicable to all chart time frames and on all instruments in all markets. It even works on tick charts. In this educational video I present how we could have made 130 pips easily with day trading GBPUSD using fibonacci based analysis. Support and motivate me by hitting the like button, subscribing to my channel and sharing this analysis with other traders. Comment below and let me know what you think of this analysis and what is yours? I welcome all comments, feedback, ideas and sharing of knowledge.
Have a great trading week!
What Path For SPX?
With the entire world a bit shaken by everything in it including the S&P 500 Index now would be a good time to see how the market has previously turned the corner after being clipped by a “Black Swan”.
I’ll start with the monthly chart which will update monthly, weekly, daily, etc. Technical Indicators I enjoy using include moving averages, Williams Alligator, Gaussian Channels and occasionally the VSRS. I might also use ADX and RSI, occasionally.
This chart includes a reversed Fibonacci Retracement Scale along with both Elliott Impulse and Correction Waves retracements of the SPX going back to August of 1982 to help us keep a calm and level mind going forward.
If you take notice you will see the market is still well above the blue 100 EMA however you can observe the market has been below it several times in the history of the SPX as well as the red 200 EMA.
You might also recognize the Elliot characteristics in the Elliott Impulse Wave from Aug 2009 up to the past ATH of 3393. Notice point 2 does not drop below point 0 at (c), that leg 3 is the longest, that leg 1 and 5 closely match in length and that it is also the start of the Elliott Correction Phase.
Is there anything that could substantiate that? There is. The Elliot Correction Phase has undeniably begun. The low for March was a measly 162 points above being a full 50% Fib Retracement. That same low also dove below the last Elliott Impulse Wave 5.
The refreshing thing I think is the Elliott Correction Wave is a simple path to follow.
Hope to see all of you as we progress forward.
Remember. This is not trading advice. Please engage the like button and add your comments below, Follow me if you wish, share it if you want.
Ethereum - How we conduct Technical analysisTechnically I refer specifically to ETH in this post but this analysis should help guide analysis on other securities, crypto or otherwise. I hope the chart is self explanatory and if not please ask. We are basically looking for bullish divergences which I have highlighted using angled lines and also utilizing the Fibonacci tool. Please look up videos on youtube if you don't know how to use it. However I have provided arrow tipped lines showing how it can be used to predict retracement as well as extension levels. In placing the 0 and 100 points *beginning and end of Fibonacci spread) we basically need to look for and identify our impulse wave, a clear movement in any direction, up or down. Lastly never forget to utilize volume, we can see from the horizontal bars towards the right of the screen that the path of least resistance is up. Thanks for reading and I hope this helps.
#CADCHF Fibonacci Analysis Tutorial & OpportunityTraders, in this short analysis, I show how to draw Fibonacci ratios to predict market movements and plan trades. We also look at how we plan to execute these trades for best R:R.
Hit the like button if enjoyed this analysis and found it useful. Thanks!