Fibonacci Retracement
EOS : Sunday's analysis leak from premiumLooking back at the EOS here. And if you remember my previous theory about 3 phases of break out strategy, you will realize that current support action for EOS is at the 2nd phases of break out strategy which is retesting the previous resistance that is now become a support. For now, I will looking for a possible long opportunity which will produce a really nice risk to reward ratio on this potential positions.
Once we see a clear rejection of this support trend line, I will open a long position for it and use the fibonacci levels as target areas.
For more details analysis, watch the video on our youtube One Point Trading
4 hours chart perspective.Hello fellas, It has been a slow day lately. But, I am hoping that you are doing great! come and take a look at our bitcoin's update on this saturday.
Currently the price is moving in a consolidation phase after a drop. I really expect the price to break out of the white resistance trend line and test the 38.2 fib retracement level. My hypothesis is the price will forms an inverse head and shoulder first before confirming breaking out to test the previous major support that is now become resistance as well.
At this kind of condition, I really think that there will be a very difficult time for bitcoin to drop more. Because the golden pocket is moving align with the exact previous support that is now become a resistance. watch for the confirmation and let's buy the dip ONLY when the price has shown a broken out structure.
Faaalling Bitcoin? Cup and Handle + Volume AnalysisThis is a daily chart for BTCUSD on Bitstamp.
The most obvious thing I want to highlight is the battle at the 0.382 Fib level.
It is very very common for an asset to have a few checks and tests off of 0.382.
And BTC is no exception.
For the past few months, we've witnessed a battle between Bulls V Bears at 0.382.
Now, bull and bear volume has been declining. Who will take over?
It seems like the technical bearish pattern Cup and Handle has surfaced.
The Cup and Handle target is projected downward,
equal to the distance between the neckline and the highest point of the Cup and Handle.
This projection takes us right around the 0.618 and 0.786 levels.
These levels are very common to show reversals .
And around this level, the price is around $6K.
Funny, this is around double the last bottom ($3.1K).
Why am I bringing this up? Remember, if you consider Bitcoin
as a commodity, then you must remember that a commodity's price will gravitate to its cost of production over time .
With difficulty increasing, we know that CoP will increase over time, and that BTC will have higher bottoms , at least for the short to medium term.
So, it makes sense for BTC to follow this Cup and Handle projection.
But remember, the market can do any damn thing it wants; we'll just have to wait and see ;)
Next Stop $9300?Hello Fellas, finally we come here with an update on the number one largest cryptocurrency in this universe which is BITCOIN! If you've seen my video analysis breakdown on youtube about btc, you will realize that finally btc has got a confirmation of breaking down the yellow area. what's next after this?
Like what I've always said, there are a lot of arguments to draw a support and resistance trend line for bitcoin, that's why a lot of bias has occured lately. I can't blame and judge the people who has made an analysis and serve it with exact long or short. Right or wrong, the bias in this market is always be subjective, there won't be 100% right or wrong. But, with this break down of yellow level, I believe most of good traders will agree that the bearish pressure is getting higher at this rate.
I see a minor support level which is the 78.6 fib level region. This area also known as the flavor of the year region because in this 2019, a lot of instrument has bounced right after the price hitting this level. Currently, the price of bitcoin is trending slightly above this support level and once we see a break down confirmation of this minor support, I believe the short entry to target the white region as a huge support is likely to happen.
Bitcoin - There's Levels to This! Fibonacci & Cluster AnalysisThis is a 1-hour chart of BTCUSD on Bitstamp.
From the high this past July to the current price, it is clear that price is pivoting back and forth between key levels.
Those key levels are:
- 0.382
- 0.5 (not a Fib level but still a useful level of support/resistance)
- 0.618
- 0.786
- 0.886
From the Fib off of the high around $13.9K to the low around $9K, we see clustering around the following levels:
- 0.382
- 0.618
From the Fib off of the low around $9K to the high around $12K, we see clustering around the following levels:
- 0.786
- 0.886
From the Fib off of the high around $12K to the low around $9.3K, we see clustering around the following levels:
- 0.5
- 0.382
I think it's paramount to study and trade off of levels.
Use levels along with price action, market structure, volume, and location.
Otherwise, if you just rely on indicators, you are simply guessing where price could go. Indicators tell you about the PAST.
It's time to get smarter with our trades.
Gnosis (GNOUSD): Coiling Volume.This is a daily chart of GNOUSD on Kraken.
Looks like volume is coiling between an uptrend (green) line and a downtrend (red) line.
Don't be surprised if you see a BIG move at the end of this coiling.
Looking at price, based off of the Fib drawn from the high around $26 and the low around $13,
we see some clear resistance at 0.382, a common area of resistance.
If price can clearly break this resistance along with bullish market structure (i.e double bottom w. breakout),
and volume looks bullish, it's a good call to buy some.
Until then, pay attention.
Ethereum (ETHUSD) Resistance - Expect at $240This is a daily chart, of ETHUSD on Kraken.
We see a relatively bullish uptrend as of late, but I expect resistance to be hit around the $240 level.
Why? A few reasons.
Firstly, we can see a cluster of historical resistance and support around those levels.
Makes sense for price to be tested there again.
Secondly, the $240 level is right around the 0.382 retracement, if we draw a Fib from the high pivot around $364 to the low pivot around $165.
0.382 is a frequent area of resistance.
Do you have different potential areas of resistance, based off of different analysis, i.e Gann, etc?
Anyway, let's keep our eyes peeled.
The Key Fib Levels of 0.618 and 0.786 + Volume ProfileHere's a chart that nicely illustrates how the 0.618 and 0.786 levels are frequently used as reversal points by the market.
Price is ping-ponging back and forth between these key levels, and we can also see an almost full Volume Profile (parabolic in shape).
The shape of this VP tells us that all the prices within this given range have been discovered, with the middle areas being the places where the most buying and selling has occurred.
This is a sign of a normal and healthy range.
So, we have the Fib levels working in unison with Volume Profile to paint a picture of a ranging market.
No Longer Random: Here's Why I Believe in Fib Ratios & HarmonicsI am going through a book on Harmonics and Fibonacci ratios (The Harmonic Trader by Scott Carney), and I'm seeing for myself how these ratios can be used as key areas of reversal.
I used to believe that day-to-day price action was random, but after looking at several charts for myself, I now reject my old belief and concede that price action is greatly tied to key Fibonacci levels and conforms decently to harmonic patterns.
The key levels I highlight here are
- 0.382
- 1.618
In the first leg, we draw our Fib off of the pivot around the $51 level to the pivot high around the $70 level. Here, we can see a reversal off the 0.382 level almost 100% cleanly.
In the second leg, we draw our Fib off that same pivot high around the $70 level to the pivot low around the $63 level. Here, we see a reversal off of the 1.618 extension level, another key reversal level.
In the third leg, we draw our Fib off that same pivot low around the $63 level to the pivot high around the $76 level. Here, we see a test of the 0.382 level, again.
But wait, there's more.
We can also draw an AB=CD harmonic using the following levels.
- A: Pivot low around $56
- B: Pivot high around $70
- C: Pivot low around $63
- D: Pivot high around $76
The AB leg is roughly the same length as the CD leg.
As you can see, AB=CD reversal also happens to be in that same 1.618 area.
All of this works together in unison.
Amidst all of these reversals off these levels, here's my Golden Rule : Use market structure as confirmation of these reversals. Look for 'M's (double tops) and 'W's (double bottoms), as well as bullish/bearish candles when appropriate, to confirm the direction of the reversal. Don't blindly trade solely off of levels.
I didn't cover them here, but I also love seeing reversals off of 0.618 and/or 0.786 levels. Those occur very frequently, too. Just gotta train your eyes.
Roles of confluence zonesIt has been a very interesting move from bitcoin, after a drop to touched the $10095 region, the price was immediately moves back to claim again the support around $10300 region to produce a long shadow on daily candle. This action could be a good representation of the bulls making their best effort to defend the $10000 region as a huge psychological support.
And looking at the chart that I've shared, the green dotted line is the resistance trend line if I want to exclude the bull trap region on previous action (body to body connecting method). And the second thing is the white region, those 2 white regions are the confluence zone between the fibonacci retracement and the fibonacci extention which I believe will act as a huge resistance for swingers. The first resistance zone is around the $10750 - $10800 region which is moving align with the green dotted line as resistance trend line. The second resistance zone is the confluence zone between golden ratio and the 1.1 fib extention.
My bias here is remain the same as before with a push to the down side for the big picture. but, I see a possible push to the first resistance zone with a bull trap region producing until the 2nd resistance zone if the $10300 region can defend the current price from further drop.
Ethereum : Equilibrium on market and dominance on bitcoinHello fellas, Finally we get some moves on BTC and once again our analysis has met the precision here with a drop. I've warned you about the bull trap region and possible drop. At the time I made this post, the bitcoin dominance is standing at around 69.4% which is extremely high and not ideal for me. So, I believe in the near future, the dominance will throw over from current level and we will see a drop on bitcoin too. The biggest question is, what could happen on altcoin market? will it follow the bitcoin's drop? or will it moves against bitcoin?
Personally, I really think that current price of altcoin is pretty low and most of them has already touched the historical low. I really can't imagine if the price of that altcoin will drop from current level, it will be such a hell. I use only the logical think to represent my view on current market. Just imagine if the dominance of bitcoin decrease, this will mean there will be a money outflow from bitcoin to keep the equilibrium play in this major market and if there is a huge outflow from bitcoin investment, I do believe the money from big investors which is known as whales in crypto industry will fill in the altcoins space to help bitcoin decrease its dominance. This phenomenon will cause a negative correlation between bitcoin and the altcoin.
I choose to pick ETH as my weapon on this possible bullish scenario on alts because Ethereum is the 2nd largest crypto in this universe just under bitcoin in its rank based on market volume. I do believe in its project too.
And from the technical side, it is moving align too with my above statement. currently the price is playing in the break out cycle both on diagonal and horizontal levels and based on the RSI and MACD, I see the price is gaining strength with its bullish divergence on daily based. I need to see 1 more drop toward the white region and if this level can hold on the price, I will open a long position from there.
This will be a beautiful trade if I have all the confirmation is being met and you will feel how satisfied is with this profit.
Bitcoin : key levels and significant resistance trend line.Hello fellas, Happy monday and have a good weeks ahead. a new week, new passion and I hope a new extra profit for us! let's talk about the key levels for bitcoin which will cover the support , resistance and the correlation with the fibonacci levels.
As you can see, that the weekly candle is about to close in less than 2 hours when I made this post and the newest weekly candle close isn't significant at all for me. currently the weekly candle is forming an unknown pattern making it very random and neutral. That's why, I am not trying to explain my bias in this post. I just want to share about the analysis of price action and key levels that I've found interesting
If you see my chart, I've shared 2 colored region which the grey region represent the key support and the blue region represent the key resistances. Each of this key levels here is moving align with the fibonacci levels. and I want you to highlight the period after November 5th, 2018.
First action is at May 13th, 2019 the price has already broken up of the resistance zone and on June 3th 2019 the resistance zone retested and produced a bounce before another break out.
Second significant action is at June 24th, 2019 candle. A really nasty wick has occured after the price tried to breaks the 50% fibonacci retracement and ended up getting rejected. After that the price was trying to break out of this 50% fibonacci levels again and always got a rejection toward the upside and it formed a shooting star candle. and for me, this action is very significant and has proven this region as a heavy region.
Another highlighted thing that I want to share is the green line. after a break out at April 2019 (yellow sign) I haven't seen any retest toward this previous resistance that is now become support as well (remember my 3 phase break out strategy). Ideally, before the end of the year, I really wish that bitcoin will test this green line again as support.
Thank you.
Bull Trap : Characteristics when the price is close to the APEXHello there my fellas, welcome back to my Sunday update about bitcoin!
Well well, it has been a very interesting play for bitcoin for now. The condition is this, The price is moving very close to the upper line of the huge descending triangle (green line) and of course if we look at lower time frame, it looks like the price is going to break this resistance trend line. I am thinking of it more like a possible bull trap moves if it breaks the green resistance trend line on lower time frame and I believe it will only produces a long wick to the upside.
Yes, maybe it is a very random statement for most of you because we have seen a strong volume and strong dynamic support that has defended the price really good. But, let's think like we are the whales who want to open a short entry because we see a huge descending triangle in play and the price in higher time frame view is losing a lot of strength! As a whales, I will definitely try to 'kill' the shorter in lower period of trading window. Why? because I want to get a short entry at higher rate so my risk to reward ratio will be better.
The second reason is because the price is moving very close to the APEX of huge descending triangle, I am very sure there will be a lot of faking out moves to represent the war between the bulls and the bears!
I believe the price will touch again the $10500 region as it is the golden pocket region or we can considering the area between the $10650 - $10700 as the last region for the long wick to the upside because it locates right at the 78.6 fib level and the previous swing high.
Thank you and the daily view will be shared on update section.
Dynamic Resistance and Phase 2 of break out strategy.Hello fellas, Do you remember when I said that is a probability for EOS to touch the previous support that is now become a resistance as a possible action for phase 2 break out strategy? Yes, I believe that scenario is going to happen before a major drop and still I am expecting a rejection at retested region for phase 2 confirmation.
But, as a day trader that is not very wise to just wait the price at the resistance to enter the big short when we see a possible spike toward the upside as the confirmation of wave 5. That is why I am interested in entering long position for this alts!
The reason is :
1. The dynamic resistance on 2 hours chart is holding the price really good.
2. Based on elliot wave count, there is 1 more possible wave up
3. The momentum of bitcoin which will spike higher. It will affect the price on alts with USD pair and will have a positive correlation.
With sacrificing not more than 4% and a potential return of more than 9%, I think this set up is pretty good.
I divide 3 take profit region:
1. at the tiny golden pocket which I represent with yellow region
2. Previous swing high
3. Slightly under the 2.618 fib extention levels which has a confluence pattern with previous major support that is now become resistance to be tested.
Thank you
EOS : Death cross and phase 2 of break out strategyHello fellas, Let's discuss this beautiful EOS. Let's get to the point.
I use bitfinex exchange to analyze current moves. From the chart that I've shared, there is a white support trend line that has already held the price since December 7th, 2019 and then it has broken out since August 14th, 2019. And since this break out, the price has never retest again the white trend line as confirmed resistance. I believe the last 11 days rally is a part of phase 2 break out strategy which will end up at the white trend line as confirmed resistance. In other side of fibonacci view, we can see the golden pocket zone is moving align with this previous support trend line. and when the price touch this golden pocket zone, I will be very interested to enter short position for EOS. My targeted area for take profit will be on previous swing low which is around $ 3.2 will produce a good rr. The risk to reward is pretty affordable with sacrificing 2% loss to catch the significant 23% profit.
Thank you
The Precision, 5th truncated wave and Next possible stopHello all, It has been a very volatile day in the market, A huge moves has occured in today's market and I saw a lot of drama occur. But, once again our yesterday's scenario is going really well with 5th truncated wave at the upper line of the triangle.
Back to the 4 hours chart which is becoming the best benchmark for swing traders. in this specific period, you can see the yellow trend line which become the broken resistance previously and until now, I haven't seen any proper retest toward this resistance again that is now become support. Usually, after a major trend occur to the upside, we will try to find a support for possible place to catch the reversal. I use the fibonacci levels to find supports and in this case, I really don't think that the golden pocket on fibonacci retracement can hold the price considering the fact that bitcoin is moving inside a huge descending triangle.
In my opinion, The price should touch again the major support on around $9400-$9000 region where this horizontal support will find an alignment with the yellow line which now become a support trend line. and if this breaks, you will see a very very nasty drop from bitcoin.
Right now, I want to stay idle and watch the wild volatility that occurs in the market.
Elliot wave perspective on BTCGood afternoon all of my fellas, How are you doing? did you catch the last awesome bulls? I hope you are doing so. Let's get to the point of today's bitcoin analysis!
In this podcast, I will cover the daily movement, intra day and scalp opportunity on bitcoin. Based on this chart, I show you 2 support and upper line movement the green dotted one and the green line. The different between this 2 line is based on how I connect the price. the green line I use the wick to wick connecting method which doesn't exclude the bear trap and bull trap region. the green dotted line, I use the body to body connecting method which exclude the bull trap and bear trap region. Based on those 2 line, It is clear that bitcoin still has the room to grow to the upside of the upper line. And based on my opinion, it can be at the golden pocket region around $11100 region which in fact has a confluence with the upper line of the triangle.
And for smaller time frame view, I will give you an explanation on update section.
Room to grow, support and resistance for bitcoinFor all of you who has opened a long position since my last signal should be in an amazing profit by now. That's why congratulation for all of you my baby. here we come with another view on bitcoin based on daily chart.
First, the last volatility is just amazing and if you have seen my previous analysis about bitcoin, you should have opened long position since $9500 region. Right now, the price is trending inside the huge descending triangle and I clearly see the potential of the price to fill the empty room toward the upper line of the triangle. but, looking at the size of current daily chart, it has a huge possibility for bitcoin to have a spike toward the golden pocket zone or even at the 78.6% fib retracement region before another drop to the downside.
Looking at the MACD indicator right now, the histogram has a significant ticking up to the upside and to the positive side. if this condition can hold until the daily candle close, I firmly believe that the price will fill the empty room toward the upper line of the triangle.
Currently the price has already claimed back the dynamic support on daily chart and this is a pretty good sign for me.
Thank you I will keep on updating about bitcoin's current moves.
Next waves must be around $1600 Hello all, looking at the analysis for XAU that is very interesting. I bet the $1600 as the next target for XAU and if we look at the blue line which has crossed up the white dynamic line, this is clearly a good sign for trend continuation, I hope to see the price retrace first to complete the 4th wave before challenging the golden pocket zone.
Thank you
GBPNZD 50% Fibonacci Retracement of Pin BarEntry 50% Fibonacci Retracement of Pin Bar (Price Level 1.86555)
Exit at Key Horizontal Support Resistance Level 1.84292
Another idea is to enter at 38.2% Fibonacci Level and Horizontal Key Level (1.86323) for confluence.
GBPSGD Fibonacci Trade Entry Level and Stop Loss LevelGBPSGD | Enter between 0.618 and 0.786 of the Pin Bar for Fibonacci Level Trade Idea. Stop Loss at the 1.618 Level.
EUR/USD UPTRENDING !!*-BROKE ASCENDING TRENDLINE
*-DOUBLE BOTTOM FORMATION SIGNALING A TREND CHANGE
*-PRICE IS ABOUT TO CREATE A NEW DESCENDING TRENDLINE
*-I AM EXPECTING A FURTHER MORE SMALL PUSH TO THE DOWNSIDE TOUCHING THE SUPPORT AND FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT
*-PRICE MIGHT ALSO CORRELATE WITH 50 EMA
*-WAITING TO SEE SOME PRICE ACTION/CANDLESTICK PATTERNS ON MY POCKET BEFORE ENTERING A LONG TRADE
*-BE CAREFULL OF NFP THIS FRIDAY
*-ITS BETTER TO CLOSE ALL OPEN TRADES BEFORE NFP
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