Diversified Futures Trading for Optimal Risk and RewardFirst of all, this idea/strategy, came to me while I was/am trading futures on Binance and practicing it made me realize that I have realized more profit than usual. It also helped me manage the risk/reward ratio.
In order to explain the strategy, remember that the whole idea of this strategy is to minimize the risk and maximize reward while trading futures and to explain how diversification helps the overall PNL.
I'm going to start with giving an example, and how I apply it in my trades, in order for it to be clearer.
Let's dive in.
Assume you have 5000 USDT that you are willing to invest in futures. Instead of investing it all on one asset (coin), diversify like following:
1000 USDT on A/usdt.p (with A being an asset) with 20x leverage
1000 USDT on B/usdt.p with 20x leverage
1000 USDT on C/usdt.p with 20x leverage
1000 USDT on D/usdt.p with 20x leverage
1000 USDT not invested on anything, just so you have margin ratio.
Depending on whether you trade cross/isolated, this strategy changes a bit but let's assume you trade on cross. So you have invested in 4 different assets, each of them by 1000usdt x 20 leverage.
Before you decide on which assets you are going to invest, do your own research and have an existing strategy or analysis, which you have confidence into.
Personally, I recommend investing in 4 different assets which have: 1. Different chart patterns, 2. Different categories and 3. Different wave counts. This is important for the following strategy. Remember to have demand/supply, MAs and Oscillators included in your analysis. Set your TP's and your Stop losses as you would do normally. Of course, your TP's POSITIVE PNL (ROI%) should be higher than your Stop losses NEGATIVE PNL (ROI%).
After you have analyzed, made your research and have decided on the assets, LONG/SHORT them and carefully track the progress.
The whole purpose of the strategy is that the assets won't pump/dump on the same time and to use this to your advantage.
Let's assume that you have POSITIVE PNL (ROI%) on only A/usdt.p and C/usdt.p while B/usdt.p and D/usdt.p are giving NEGATIVE PNL (ROI%). For example A and C are 50% up and B and D are 50% down. In that case, you PARTIALLY (25%-50%) = X, close the assets with POSITIVE PNL and you ADD more on your C and D positions. Wait to see how the market reacts and:
1. If the market continues to go in the same trend, your A and C will hit your TP's (yes on a lower profit than initially indented) and your B and D assets will hit your your SL's (yes on a higher loss than initially indented) but since TP ROI > SL ROI that means that you have achieved more profit than losses while minimizing risk. OR
2. If the markets starts to shift in the different trend, your A and C will start shifting towards your Entry position or maybe even hit your SL's (but now on a lower quantity) while B and D will start rising going above Entry position or maybe even hit your TP's (but now on a higher quantity), which means your losses on A and C will be X lower while your winnings on B and D will be X higher.
You continue to manipulate A, B, C and D like this, until you either:
1. Hit ALL TP's with much higher profit indented (since you added quantity when your assets were lower) or
2. Hit ALL SL's with much lower losses indented (since you closed X amount of position when you were higher and added when it was lower than the entry price).
Remember that you still have have 1000 USDT to keep the margin ratio healthy and in extreme cases (when more than 2 assets are on negative ROI%) to add quantity to the assets with negative ROI% (under the entry price) and higher than SL.
This will also make it so you have LOWER overall entry price on the NEGATIVE ROI%.
This idea/strategy has some requirements and assumptions:
1. That you understand well the asset analysis, such as support/resistances, indicators, chart patterns and others.
2. You understand how the binance futures basically work.
3. You are COMMITED and have plenty of time to OBSERVE the assets and INTERVENE if necessary.
4. You understand risk/reward management.
5. You have read and understood binances terms and agreements.
This strategy doesn't require (but prefers) that all the assets have POSITIVE ROI% and a NEGATIVE ROI% on all assets is not a dissolution (but not preferred).
If I were to put all this in a formula, it would be as follows:
### Variables:
- \(P\): Total capital available for trading (e.g., 5000 USDT)
- \(N\): Number of assets to invest in (e.g., 4)
- \(L\): Leverage (e.g., 20x)
- \(A_i\): Amount invested in asset \(i\) (e.g., 1000 USDT)
- \(TP_i\): Take Profit level for asset \(i\)
- \(SL_i\): Stop Loss level for asset \(i\)
- \(PNL_i\): Profit and Loss for asset \(i\)
- \(X_i\): Percentage of position to close on positive PNL (e.g., 25% or 50%)
- \(R\): Reserved capital for margin ratio maintenance (e.g., 1000 USDT)
- \(T\): Total invested capital \(T = P - R\)
### Initial Investment Formula:
1. **Allocate capital to each asset:**
\
2. **Leverage Calculation:**
\
### Active Management Formulas:
3. **Partial Closing of Positions:**
When \(PNL_i > 0\):
\
4. **Reallocate to Negative PNL Positions:**
\
5. **Adjust Position Quantities:**
- For positive PNL positions (A and C in the example):
\
- For negative PNL positions (B and D in the example):
\
### Scenario Outcome:
6. **Evaluate Positions:**
- If the market trend continues:
- Calculate overall profit based on adjusted positions hitting TP and SL levels.
\
\]
- If the market reverses:
- Calculate overall profit based on reversed trend.
\
\]
### Margin Management:
7. **Ensure Reserved Capital:**
Always keep \(R\) amount as reserved capital to maintain a healthy margin ratio.
\
### Summary Formula:
\ + \text{Remaining Capital}
\]
### Practical Example:
1. Initial investment in each asset \(A_i\):
\
2. Effective investment with leverage:
\
3. Partial close for positive PNL assets (A and C):
\
4. New allocation for negative PNL assets (B and D):
\
5. Adjusted positions:
\
\
6. Evaluate Total PNL based on market scenarios.
Last but not least, this is NOT a financial advice and ALWAYS do your own research before making financial decisions.
Fundamental Analysis
Options Blueprint Series: Pre and Post OPEC+ WTI Options PlaysIntroduction
The world of crude oil trading is significantly influenced by the decisions made by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+. These meetings, which often dictate production levels, can lead to substantial market volatility. Traders and investors closely monitor these events, not only for their immediate impact on oil prices but also for the broader economic implications.
In this article, we explore two sophisticated options strategies designed to capitalize on the volatility surrounding OPEC+ meetings, specifically focusing on WTI Crude Oil Futures Options. We will delve into the double calendar spread, a strategy to exploit the expected rise in implied volatility (IV) before the meeting, and the transition to a long iron condor, which aims to profit from potential post-meeting volatility adjustments.
Understanding the Market Dynamics
OPEC+ meetings are pivotal events in the global oil market, with decisions that can significantly influence crude oil prices. These meetings typically revolve around discussions on production quotas, which directly affect the supply side of the oil market. The anticipation and outcomes of these meetings create a fertile ground for volatility, especially in the days leading up to and immediately following the announcements.
Implied Volatility (IV) Dynamics
Pre-Meeting Volatility: In the days leading up to an OPEC+ meeting, implied volatility (IV) often rises. This increase is driven by market uncertainty and the potential for significant price moves based on the meeting's outcome. Traders buy options to hedge against or speculate on the potential price movements, thereby increasing the demand for options and pushing up IV.
Post-Meeting Volatility: After the meeting, IV can either spike or drop sharply, depending on whether the outcome aligns with market expectations. An unexpected decision can cause a significant IV spike due to the new uncertainty introduced, while a decision in line with expectations can lead to a sharp drop as the uncertainty dissipates.
Strategy 1: Double Calendar Spread
The double calendar spread is a sophisticated options strategy that can potentially take advantage of rising implied volatility (IV) leading up to significant market events, such as the OPEC+ meeting. This strategy involves establishing positions in options with different expiration dates but the same strike price, allowing traders to profit from the increase in IV while managing risk effectively.
Structure
Long Legs: Buy longer-term call and put options.
Short Legs: Sell shorter-term call and put options.
The strategy typically involves setting up two calendar spreads at different strike prices (one higher and one lower), thus the term "double calendar."
Rationale
The rationale behind this strategy is that the longer-term options will experience a greater increase in IV as the event approaches, inflating their premiums more than the shorter-term options. As the short-term options expire, traders can realize a profit from the difference in premiums, assuming IV rises as expected.
Strategy 2: Transition to Long Iron Condor
As the OPEC+ meeting date approaches and the double calendar spread positions reach their peak profitability due to the elevated implied volatility (IV), it becomes strategic to transition into a long iron condor. This shift aims to capitalize on potential volatility changes and capture profits from the expected IV drop.
Structure
Closing the Double Calendar: Close the short-term call and put options from the double calendar spread.
Setting Up the Long Iron Condor: Sell new OTM call and put options with the same expiration date as the long legs of the double calendar spread.
The result is a position where the trader holds long options closer to the money and short options further out, creating a long condor structure.
Rationale
The rationale for transitioning to a long iron condor is to capture profits from a potential decrease in IV after the OPEC+ meeting.
Practical Example
To illustrate the application of the double calendar spread and the transition to a long iron condor, let's walk through a detailed example using hypothetical WTI Crude Oil Futures prices.
Double Calendar Spread Setup
1. Initial Conditions:
Current price of WTI Crude Oil Futures: $77.72 per barrel.
Date: One week before the OPEC+ meeting.
2. Long Legs:
Buy a call option with a strike price of $81, expiring on Jun-7 2024 @ 0.32.
Buy a put option with a strike price of $74, expiring on Jun-7 2024 @ 0.38.
3. Short Legs:
Sell a call option with a strike price of $81, expiring on May-31 2024 @ 0.05.
Sell a put option with a strike price of $74, expiring on May-31 2024 @ 0.09.
Note: We are using the CME Group Options Calculator in order to generate fair value prices and Greeks for any options on futures contracts.
Transition to Long Iron Condor
1. Closing the Double Calendar:
Close the short-term call and put options just before they expire @ 0.01 (assuming they are OTM on Friday May-31, before the market closes for the weekend).
2. Setting Up the Iron Condor:
Sell a call option with a strike price of $82, expiring on Jun-7 2024 @ 0.13.
Sell a put option with a strike price of $73, expiring on Jun-7 2024 @ 0.18.
0.11 and 0.17 are estimated values assuming WTI Crude Oil Futures remains fairly centered around 77.50 and that IV has risen into the OPEC+ meeting weekend.
Transitioning from the Double Calendar to the Long Iron Condor would be done on Friday May-31.
3. Resulting Position:
You now hold a long call at $81, a long put at $74, a short call at $82, and a short put at $73, forming a long iron condor.
The risk of the trade has been reduced by half (assuming the real fills coincide with the estimated values above) from 0.56 to 0.27 = $270 with a potential for reward of up to 0.73 (1 – 0.27) = $730.
This practical example demonstrates how to effectively implement and transition between the double calendar spread and the long iron condor to navigate the volatility surrounding an OPEC+ meeting.
Importance of Risk Management
Effective risk management is crucial when implementing options strategies, particularly around significant market events like the OPEC+ meeting. The volatility and potential for sharp market moves require traders to have robust risk management practices to protect their capital and ensure long-term success.
Avoiding Undefined Risk Exposure
Undefined risk exposure occurs when traders have no clear limit on their potential losses. This can happen with certain options strategies that involve selling naked options. To avoid this, traders should always define their risk by using strategies that have built-in risk limits, such as spreads and condors.
Precise Entries and Exits
Making precise entries and exits is critical in options trading. This involves:
Entering trades at optimal times to maximize potential profits.
Exiting trades at predetermined levels to lock in gains or limit losses.
Adjusting trades based on market conditions and new information.
Additional Risk Management Practices
Diversification: Spread risk across different assets and strategies.
Position Sizing: Allocate only a small percentage of capital to each trade to avoid significant losses from a single position.
Continuous Monitoring: Regularly review and adjust positions as market conditions evolve.
By adhering to these risk management principles, traders can navigate the complexities of the options market and mitigate the risks associated with volatile events like OPEC+ meetings.
Conclusion
Navigating the volatility surrounding significant market events like the OPEC+ meeting requires strategic planning and effective risk management. By implementing the double calendar spread before the meeting, traders can capitalize on the anticipated rise in implied volatility (IV). Transitioning to a long iron condor after the meeting allows traders to benefit from potential post-meeting volatility adjustments or price stabilization.
These strategies, when executed correctly, offer a structured approach to managing market uncertainties and capturing profits from both pre- and post-event volatility. The key lies in precise timing, appropriate strike selection, and diligent risk management practices to protect against adverse market movements.
By understanding and applying these sophisticated options strategies, traders can enhance their ability to navigate the complexities of the crude oil market and leverage the opportunities presented by OPEC+ meetings.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
AIRDROP TYPESCryptocurrency airdrops are a clever marketing tactic where projects give away tokens or coins for free, with the aim of generating buzz and spreading the word about their product. In most cases, the primary goal of an airdrop is to create awareness and attract attention, rather than generating revenue. As the airdrop makes headlines in the media and gets featured on influential analytical platforms, users become more familiar with the startup and may even decide to invest in their coins if they're interested.
There are different types of airdrops that have different purposes, conditions and mechanisms:
🎈 REGULAR AIRDROP
These are the simplest and most common type of airdrop, where a project gives away its tokens or coins without any strings attached. In most cases, all you need to do is sign up for the project and confirm your email address to receive your free tokens.
Unlike other types of airdrops, regular airdrops require minimal effort and no purchase or time-consuming tasks. It's like getting free money, without having to lift a finger! And the best part? You can earn even more by sharing the news with your friends and family on social media.
Regular airdrops are often used by new projects that are just starting out, with coins that have a few zeros after the decimal point. The main goal is to create buzz and generate interest in the project, which can lead to a significant increase in the price of the coin once it's listed on exchanges.
🎈 BOUNTY AIRDROP
The Bounty Airdrop is a unique and innovative way for projects to engage with their community and reward their most enthusiastic supporters. Unlike traditional airdrops, where users simply receive tokens or coins for free, the Bounty Airdrop requires users to complete specific tasks in order to earn their rewards. These tasks can include writing an article, creating a video, translating content, testing or reviewing a product, or even participating in social media campaigns.
By completing these tasks, users are not only earning rewards, but also contributing to the growth and success of the project. This approach not only incentivizes users to take action, but also fosters a sense of ownership and loyalty among the community.
The Bounty Airdrop offers higher rewards compared to traditional airdrops, making it an attractive option for users who are willing to put in a little more effort. However, it also requires a higher level of engagement and commitment from the user. For those who are willing to take on the challenge, the rewards can be substantial and provide a significant boost to their crypto portfolios.
Overall, the Bounty Airdrop is a win-win for both the project and the user. It provides a unique opportunity for users to earn rewards while also contributing to the growth and success of the project, and offers a higher level of engagement and satisfaction compared to traditional airdrops.
🎈 LIMITED AIRDROP
A limited airdrop is a unique token distribution strategy where a project allocates its tokens or coins to a specific group of individuals, often consisting of early investors, holders of a particular cryptocurrency, participants in a hardfork or lottery. This type of airdrop is commonly employed by already established startups as a marketing tool to promote their brand and incentivize users to buy their coins.
In a limited airdrop, the project typically distributes its tokens or coins to the selected group of individuals, often with the condition that they must hold or buy a certain amount of the project's coins beforehand. This creates a sense of urgency and exclusivity among participants, as they are only eligible to receive the airdrop if they meet the specific requirements.
The primary objective of a limited airdrop is to create buzz and drive adoption for the project's coins. By offering exclusive rewards to early adopters and loyal supporters, the project can incentivize users to buy and hold their coins, rather than simply selling them off immediately.
However, the success of a limited airdrop ultimately depends on the timing and execution of the project's sales strategy. Once the airdrop is completed, the project typically begins mass sales among those who purchased coins solely for the rewards. This means that the task at hand is to sell the coins quickly and efficiently, ideally before the market becomes saturated with sellers.
By carefully planning and executing their sales strategy, projects can maximize their returns and create a sustainable market for their coins. For investors, limited airdrops can be an attractive opportunity to get in on the ground floor of a promising new project and potentially earn significant returns.
🎈 AUDIENCE AIRDROP
In an Audience Airdrop, a project distributes its tokens or coins to individuals who have amassed a certain number of followers, likes, comments, or views on their social media channels, blogs, or online forums. This targeted approach allows projects to focus on their most dedicated and active supporters, who have been instrumental in spreading the word about their initiative.
By offering tokens or coins to these loyal enthusiasts, projects can foster a sense of community and loyalty among their audience. This strategy is particularly effective for projects that are looking to build a loyal following and encourage word-of-mouth marketing. In essence, an Audience Airdrop is a form of token-based loyalty program that rewards users for their ongoing support and participation.
The benefits of an Audience Airdrop are multifaceted. For one, it provides a unique opportunity for users to get involved with the project and feel valued for their contributions. Secondly, it helps to build a strong and dedicated community around the project, which can lead to increased visibility and credibility. Lastly, it can also help to incentivize users to continue promoting the project and sharing its content with others. Overall, an Audience Airdrop is a clever and effective way for projects to reward their most loyal fans and encourage continued support and advocacy.
🎈 HARDFORK-BASED AIRDROP
What happens when an airdrop is coupled with a hardfork, a significant event that splits the blockchain into two distinct branches? This fusion of concepts gives rise to a unique phenomenon known as a hardfork-based airdrop.
A hardfork is a major update to the blockchain protocol that renders the existing blockchain incompatible with the new version. As a result, the blockchain is split into two branches, each maintaining its own unique set of transactions and assets. This dichotomy creates an opportunity for projects to distribute their tokens or coins to users who held a certain cryptocurrency on their wallets at the time of the hardfork.
The benefits of a hardfork-based airdrop are multifaceted. For users, it provides an opportunity to acquire new tokens or coins without investing in initial coin offerings or token sales. This democratizes access to blockchain assets, allowing more individuals to participate in the ecosystem. Furthermore, it incentivizes users to hold onto their cryptocurrencies, fostering loyalty and encouraging long-term investment in the project.
For projects, a hardfork-based airdrop offers a unique marketing strategy to promote their token or coin. By distributing assets to users who hold a specific cryptocurrency, projects can generate buzz and attract new followers. This approach also helps to establish a strong community foundation, as users are more likely to support and advocate for projects that reward their loyalty.
🎈 PARTNERSHIP AIRDROP
The partnership airdrop is a revolutionary concept that empowers token holders to benefit from joint ventures between projects. This innovative approach allows token holders to receive tokens from both participating projects, fostering a sense of unity and shared value. For instance, when two projects merge, their token holders can now seamlessly receive tokens from both entities, creating a more comprehensive ecosystem.
Another example of the partnership airdrop in action is when a new startup is launched on the Ethereum blockchain. As a token of appreciation for the support and trust of Ethereum holders, they are rewarded with tokens from the new startup in a predetermined proportion. This collaborative approach not only strengthens the bond between projects but also provides a unique opportunity for token holders to diversify their portfolios and benefit from the growth potential of the merged or new projects.
By facilitating seamless token distribution through partnerships, the partnership airdrop has the potential to reshape the way we think about tokenomics and project collaborations. As more projects come together to create innovative solutions, the partnership airdrop will undoubtedly play a vital role in shaping the future of the cryptocurrency landscape.
🎈 AIRDROP FOR NFT HOLDER
This airdrop mechanism that benefits holders of specific NFT assets, providing them with free tokens. This promotion strategy is designed to incentivize ownership and drive engagement with a particular NFT collection. By distributing tokens to holders of certain NFT cards or assets, creators can increase visibility and attract new enthusiasts to their digital art project.
Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment
From Beginner to Pro - The Evolution of a Trader
Hey traders,
In this educational article, we will discuss 3 stages of the evolution of a trader .
Stage 1 - Unprofitable trader 😞
The unprofitable trader has very typical characteristics:
-total absence of trading skills
Most of the time, people open a live account simply after completing some beginners course like on babypips website.
Being sure that the obtained knowledge are completely enough to start trading, they quickly face the tough reality.
-no trading plan
Having just basic knowledge, of course, they do not have a trading plan. Why the hell to have it if everything is so simple?!
All their actions on the market is just gambling. They open the positions randomly most of the time, simply relying on intuition.
-poor risk management
In 99% percent of the time, the unprofitable trader does not even think about risk management. The position sizing, stop placement and target selection are completely neglected.
Trading performance of the unprofitable traders is characterized by small wins and substantial losses and negatively trending equity.
Stage 2 - Boom and bust trader 😶
Usually, traders reach boom and bust stage after 1-2 years of unprofitable trading. At some moment, winning trades start to compensate losing trades, brining non-trending equity.
Such traders have very common traits:
-not polished trading plan
Being unprofitable for so long, traders start to realize the significance of a trading plan.
Sticking to the set of rules, they notice positive changes in their trading performance.
However, trading plan requires to be polished and modified. It takes many years for a trader to identify all its drawbacks before it starts bringing net profits.
-lack of confidence
When one starts following a trading system, confidence plays a substantial role.
The fact is that even the best trading strategy in the world occasionally produces negative results. In order to not give up and keep following such a system, one needs to build trust in that.
The confidence that after a series of losing trades, the strategy will manage to recover.
Such a trust can be built after many years of trading that strategy.
Stage 3 - Profitable trader ☺️
That is the final destination.
After many years of a struggling trading, one finally sees positively-trending equity. Winning trades start to outperform losing ones, leading to consistent account growth.
Profitable trader is characterized by iron discipline, confidence and consistency.
He knows what he is trading, when and why. His trading plan is polished, he fully controls his emotions.
He never stops learning and constantly develops his strategy.
Knowing the 3 stages of the evolution of a trader, one can easily identify at what stage he currently is. That will help to identify the things to be focused on to move to the next stage.
At what stages are you at the moment?
STOP asking this dangerous two word questionWhat if?
This simple two word question is a psychological trap that traders often encounter.
And it does nothing more than undermine their decision-making process and overall trading performance.
This question will open a box of doubts, hypotheticals, and second-guessing.
This can paralyze action, distort risk assessment, and divert focus from the present to an endless maze of unrealized possibilities.
Let’s look into the psychological effects and what you can do to stop it from creeping in.
Psychological Impact
#1: Doubt and Hesitation
Constantly questioning “What if?” introduces doubt into the decision-making process.
For traders, you need to make decisions quickly and with confidence.
If you have any hesitation when you take a trade, it can lead to missed opportunities or entering positions at less than optimal prices.
#2: Fear of Missing Out (FOMO)
“What if this stock skyrockets after I sell?”
“What if this stock isn’t ideal?”
What if this trade hits my stop loss?”
This type of questioning can lead to either:
~ Holding positions too long.
~ Not holding positions long enough.
~ Not taking the trade.
~ Or missing great opportunities that come your way.
#3: Overtrading
Conversely, the fear of missing out can also lead to overtrading.
“What if this is the next big opportunity?”
Regardless on whether the trade lined up or not.
You might be compelled to jump into trades without proper analysis or strategy.
This will increase your trades, costs and your exposure to risk.
#4: Regret and Rumination
Traders who focus on “What if?” scenarios may dwell on past decisions, and this could lead to regret and rumination.
This backward-looking perspective can hinder the ability to learn from mistakes and make more informed decisions in the future.
So let’s try prevent the WHAT IF? Scenario.
Don’t you think?
Managing “What If?” in Trading
#1: Develop a Trading Plan
Make sure you have a clear, well-thought-out trading plan.
This will help you to minimise second-guessing.
If you have pre-defined entry, exit, and risk management rules in advance, you’ll be able to reduce the temptation to ask “What if?” and instead focus on executing your strategy.
#2: Embrace Risk Management
When you understand and accept the inherent risks of trading can alleviate the stress of “What if?” questions.
Effective risk management will help ensure you to prepare for all types of outcomes.
And you’ll handle your losses without deviating from your strategy.
#3: Stay Present
You need to be in the NOW moment.
This way you’ll be able to avoid the trap of hypotheticals.
Ask the questions:
Has my trading system aligned?
What is my daily and weekly bias?
#4: Accept Uncertainty
Recognise that market conditions are inherently unpredictable as I’ve mentioned many times.
The only thing you should have your mind set to are the probabilities and possibilities of trades lining up.
No outcomes can be foreseen or controlled.
All you can do is follow your strategy accordingly and forget about the prompt “WHAT IF?”.
Final words:
I think I have covered all the ways you need to stop worrying about the unknown.
You need to stop asking “WHAT IF?”. And start saying “NOW DO”.
Let’s sum up why we would ask the hypothetical question when we trade:
#1: Doubt and Hesitation
#2: Fear of Missing Out (FOMO)
#3: Overtrading
#4: Regret and Rumination
Managing “What If?” in Trading
#1: Develop a Trading Plan
#2: Embrace Risk Management
#3: Stay Present
#4: Accept Uncertainty
Mastering the Trader Skillset: Building a Strong PyramidIn the dynamic world of trading, success hinges on a robust skillset. Imagine this skillset as a pyramid, with each level representing a crucial component that traders must master to achieve consistent profitability. At the base, we have Technical Analysis, followed by Risk Management in the middle, and Discipline and Patience at the top. Additionally, Automation plays a pivotal role, integrating seamlessly across the entire structure. Let's delve into each of these elements and understand how they contribute to a trader's success.
The Base: Technical Analysis
The foundation of the trader's pyramid is Technical Analysis. This involves studying price charts, patterns, and various indicators to make informed trading decisions. Mastering technical analysis is crucial because it:
1. Identifies Trends and Patterns: Recognizing market trends and chart patterns allows traders to predict future price movements, making it easier to enter and exit trades at optimal times.
2. Utilizes Indicators: Tools like moving averages, RSI (Relative Strength Index), MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), and Bollinger Bands provide insights into market momentum, volatility, and potential reversals.
3. Supports Strategy Development: Technical analysis forms the basis for creating and refining trading strategies, whether they are short-term or long-term.
The Middle: Risk Management
Sitting at the middle of the pyramid is Risk Management, a critical component that ensures long-term survival in the market. Effective risk management includes:
1. Position Sizin: Determining the appropriate size for each trade to limit exposure and avoid catastrophic losses.
2. Stop-Loss Orders: Implementing stop-loss orders to automatically close losing positions before they can significantly impact the trading account.
3. Diversification: Spreading investments across different assets or markets to reduce risk.
By prioritizing risk management, traders can protect their capital and remain in the game, even during periods of market volatility.
The Peak: Discipline and Patience
At the pinnacle of the pyramid are Discipline and Patience, the traits that distinguish successful traders from the rest. These qualities are essential for:
1. Adhering to Strategies: Sticking to predetermined trading plans and strategies, even in the face of emotional challenges and market noise.
2. Avoiding Overtrading: Exercising restraint to prevent impulsive decisions and overtrading, which can erode profits and increase risk.
3. Waiting for the Right Opportunities: Having the patience to wait for high-probability setups, rather than forcing trades.
Discipline and patience ensure that traders remain consistent and rational, avoiding the pitfalls of emotional trading.
The Integrative Element: Automation
Automation in trading acts as an integrative element that enhances every level of the pyramid. It involves using algorithms and trading bots to execute trades based on predefined criteria. Automation benefits traders by:
1. Eliminating Emotional Bias: Automated systems follow strategies without being influenced by fear or greed, ensuring objective decision-making.
2. Enhancing Efficiency: Automation can analyze vast amounts of data quickly and execute trades with precision, improving overall trading efficiency.
3. Consistence: Automated strategies maintain consistency in trading, sticking to the plan without deviation.
By incorporating automation, traders can optimize their technical analysis, streamline risk management, and uphold discipline and patience.
The trader skillset pyramid provides a comprehensive framework for achieving trading success. Technical Analysis forms the sturdy base, enabling traders to understand market behavior and develop strategies. Risk Management, positioned in the middle, safeguards their capital and ensures longevity. Discipline and Patience, at the top, are the hallmarks of professional trading, allowing traders to execute their plans effectively. Automation, interwoven throughout, enhances each component, providing a modern edge in the fast-paced trading environment.
By mastering each level of this pyramid, traders can build a resilient and profitable trading career, equipped to navigate the complexities of financial markets with confidence.
Analysis of Currency Correlations in Forex TradingAnalysis of Currency Correlations in Forex Trading
Navigating the complex landscape of forex trading requires a nuanced understanding of currency correlations. This article discusses the various aspects of the concept, from its definition to practical applications in the world of forex trading.
Understanding Forex Currency Correlation
Acknowledging the correlation concept may help traders get a better understanding of forex market conditions and aid in the planning of their trades.
Currency correlations refer to the statistical relationship between different currency pairs, revealing how they tend to move in relation to each other. This concept is grounded in the idea that the values of currencies can be influenced by common factors such as economic indicators, interest rates, and market sentiment.
Historical and Dynamic Correlations
Observing the historical and dynamic relation between forex pairs that correlate provides a nuanced perspective on the evolving nature of market relationships. Historical price data shows the patterns and trends over time, offering insights into how pairs have moved in relation to each other in various market conditions. On the other hand, dynamic correlations acknowledge the ever-changing nature of financial markets.
Influencing Factors
Economic indicators of a country, such as inflation rates and employment figures, serve as fundamental drivers influencing the strength or weakness of its currency. Also central to the landscape are interest rates, with decisions made by central banks impacting currency values significantly. Market sentiment also contributes to the ebb and flow of currency interrelations.
Interpreting Currency Correlations
The relationship between currency pairs can vary in terms of intensity and duration. Let’s explore how traders measure correlations and which aspects they need to consider.
Identifying Strong and Weak Relationships
The correlation coefficient is the technical indicator that quantifies the degree to which two currency pairs move in relation to each other. A reading close to +1 indicates a strong positive correlation, while a coefficient near -1 signifies a strong negative correlation. An indicator reading near 0 suggests a weak or non-existent correlation.
Correlation Between Forex Pairs May Change Over Time
Major economic shifts and events can alter the relationships between currency pairs. The usual negative correlation can transform into a positive one, showcasing how economic turbulence can reshape established relationships. For example, AUD/USD and GBP/USD pairs have a strong positive correlation on the daily chart, which becomes neutral on the weekly timeframe. If we consider a monthly period, the correlation will become positive again.
Correlations can manifest differently over various timeframes. Short-term correlations may be influenced by daily economic releases or unexpected events, while long-term correlations may be shaped by broader economic trends, including adjustments in a country's interest rates, alterations in monetary policies, or a combination of economic and political events. Short-term correlations may guide intraday or swing trading, while long-term correlations can influence position trading and investment decisions. The suitability of timeframes is closely tied to the chosen forex correlation strategies.
Tools and Resources for Currency Correlations Analysis
In addition to the correlation coefficient, there may be custom indicators to calculate and display currency correlations. These indicators can be programmed to suit your specific needs and preferences. Charting platforms equipped with customisation features also enable the simultaneous visualisation of multiple pairs, aiding in the identification of patterns and trends. Forex correlation matrices, available on various trading platforms, offer a comprehensive overview of the interdependencies of currency pairs.
Types of Currency Pair Correlation
The relative movements of forex pairs can be discussed from two different perspectives. Below, we delve into that matter, offering some practical examples.
Currency Correlations
While analysing the interrelationship between currency pairs, traders distinguish between three types of correlation.
Positive: EUR/USD and GBP/USD
A positive relationship is when two currency pairs move in the same direction. Over a specific period, when the EUR/USD experiences an upward movement, the GBP/USD also tends to rise correspondingly.
Negative: GBP/USD and USD/JPY
Negative correlations indicate movement in opposite directions. For example, when the USD/JPY experiences an upward trend, the GBP/USD tends to exhibit a downward movement, and vice versa.
Neutral: EUR/GBP and AUD/CAD
This is the case when there is no systematic relation between the exchange rates of the two currencies. The chart below shows that the price movements of EUR/GBP and AUD/CAD currency pairs do not exhibit a consistent pattern of moving in the same or opposite directions.
Curious about how other pairs move in relation to each other? Visit FXOpen and try out TickTrader’s free charting tools.
Intermarket Correlations
In addition to currency pairs, intermarket correlations explore the interconnected relationships between various financial assets. For instance, the relative price movements between currency pairs and commodities or equity markets can influence forex trading strategies. Traders always consider these broader market dynamics to make informed trading decisions.
Risk Management
By identifying pairs with negative correlations, traders can potentially offset losses in one position with gains in another through a good hedging strategy. Positive patterns, on the other hand, can help confirm trends and reinforce trading strategies. Incorporating correlations into risk management strategies may help traders assess the overall risk exposure of their portfolios more accurately.
Challenges and Limitations
One challenge lies in the dynamic nature of correlations, which can shift unpredictably in response to economic events or changing market sentiment. Over-reliance on historical data poses a risk, as past patterns may not necessarily repeat in the future. Additionally, currency pairs are influenced by various global markets, while liquidity issues in certain currency pairs may affect the reliability of the patterns identified, particularly in times of heightened market volatility.
Takeaway
Understanding currency correlations is one of the key components in designing forex strategies. While their analysis offers valuable insights, a broader approach that considers various other market factors is essential for effective performance in forex trading. Ready to try your forex strategies? You can open an FXOpen account today!
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Implementing SEASONAL TENDENCIESHi guys,
In this video I go through what are "seasonal tendencies", and how you can implement it into your analysis and strategy(ies).
Seasonal tendencies in the context of financial markets are basically what the particular market or asset has historically done throughout the years in terms of bullish or bearish movement. For example, in April-May the US Dollar is usually bearish, and from May-June it is usually bullish. This is useful information because it can add confluence to your bias/analysis. However, you do not want to solely use this information as a reason to get into a trade. The data is based on the past, and is not indicative to the present/future and also does not represent how much a market or asset can move because the data is only measured relative to what it has previously done. The best approach is to use this as an additional thumbs up if it coincides with your analysis, and if it does, then it allows you to be a bit more cautious or risk averse.
A simple analogy is the weather. If you were planning a holiday to Thailand for a sunny getaway, the best times would be from March to July. Most likely you are not going to book a holiday in November during the monsoon season, unless you actually wanted it to rain every day. However, some years have had very little to no rain during the monsoon season. That being said, you would most likely choose to go during a time that seasonally has hot and sunny weather. This is how you can use seasonal tendencies to add an additional layer to your analysis.
I hope that was insightful and gave you some ideas to test if you've never heard of seasonal tendencies. You can implement this both as a technical or fundamental analyst (or both).
Til next time, happy trading.
- R2F
Don't Get FOMO'd Out: Why Crypto News is a Lagging Indicator The fast-paced world of cryptocurrency can be exhilarating, but also overflowing with noise. News outlets scream about the latest price surges, social media influencers tout their favorite coins, and every tweet feels like a market-moving event. But how do you separate genuine signals from the constant background buzz?
The truth is, a lot of crypto news acts like a lagging indicator, meaning it reflects what's already happened in the market rather than predicting the future. Here's why you shouldn't base your investment decisions solely on headlines:
Looking Back, Not Forward:
Imagine waking up to a newsflash: "Bitcoin Soars 20%!" While exciting, this news tells you what already happened, not what will happen next. The price increase could be due to various factors, some of which might not be sustainable.
The FOMO Trap (Fear Of Missing Out):
Attention-grabbing headlines can trigger emotional responses, leading to impulsive investment decisions. You might rush to buy a coin that's spiking based on the news, only to see the price fall shortly after.
Case in Point: The Elon Musk Effect
Elon Musk's tweets have a well-documented history of influencing cryptocurrency prices. When he tweets positively about Dogecoin (DOGE), for example, the price often surges. However, this is often a short-lived effect, and the price can quickly retreat after the initial hype. The news reports the surge, but it doesn't necessarily predict its longevity.
How to Spot the Real Story:
So, how do you stay informed without getting caught up in the noise? Here are some tips:
Focus on Technical Analysis: Technical analysis (TA) uses historical price and volume data to identify trends, potential turning points, and areas of support and resistance. While not a crystal ball, TA can provide valuable insights into the market's underlying health.
Read Beyond the Headlines: Don't just skim headlines. Dig deeper into the news to understand the context and reasoning behind price movements.
Follow Reputable Sources: Seek out information from established financial news outlets or research firms with a proven track record in cryptocurrency analysis.
Do Your Own Research (DYOR): Never blindly follow financial advice, even from seemingly credible sources. Develop your understanding of the cryptocurrency space, research projects you're interested in, and make informed decisions based on your risk tolerance and investment goals.
Remember:
News can be a great way to stay informed about the crypto market, but don't let it dictate your investment decisions.
Combine news updates with technical analysis and fundamental research for a more comprehensive understanding.
Focus on the long-term potential of the technology and specific projects rather than short-term price fluctuations.
By adopting a more critical approach to crypto news, you can avoid the FOMO trap and make informed investment decisions based on a deeper understanding of the market.
Explaining Dow Theory - Does it Deliver Results?
Dow theory stands out as one of the most revered theories in the history of financial markets. Whether you're engaged in intraday trading, short-term trading, or long-term investment, understanding this theory is bound to help you formulate diverse strategies.
Originally crafted by Charles Dow in the late 1800s, Dow Theory, also known as Dow Jones Theory, has stood the test of time. Charles Dow, the founder of the Dow-Jones financial news service WSJ (Wall Street Journal) and Dow Jones and Company, developed this trading strategy.
Even after a century, Dow theory remains influential and is considered one of the most sophisticated studies in technical analysis.
I trust this will be beneficial to anyone involved in trading or investing in financial markets.
What is the essence of Dow Theory?
In an article published in the Wall Street Journal on January 31, 1901, Charles H. Dow likened the stock market to the ebb and flow of ocean tides.
He stated, "A person observing the rising tide and wishing to determine the precise moment of high tide places a stick in the sand at the points reached by the incoming waves until the stick reaches a position where the waves no longer reach it and eventually recede enough to indicate that the tide has turned." This approach proves effective in monitoring and predicting the rising tide of the stock market.
Dow believed that analyzing the current state of the stock market could offer insights into the current state of the economy.
Indeed, the stock market can serve as a valuable gauge for understanding the underlying reasons behind upward and downward trends in both the economy and individual stocks.
How Does the Dow Theory Operate?
The Dow Theory operates based on several principles, which include the following:
1. The Averages Account for Everything:
Market prices incorporate all known or unknown factors that may impact supply and demand. It is believed that the market reflects all available information, including information not yet public. This encompasses various events such as natural disasters like droughts, cyclones, floods, or earthquakes.
Major geopolitical occurrences, trade conflicts, domestic policies, elections, GDP growth, fluctuations in interest rates, and earnings forecasts or anticipations are all already factored into market prices. While unforeseen events may arise, they typically influence short-term trends while leaving the primary trend intact.
2.The Market Exhibits Three Trends:
a)The primary trend:
This trend can extend from one year to several years and represents the dominant movement of the market. It is commonly known as either a bull or bear market. The bullish primary uptrend sees higher highs followed by higher lows, while the bearish primary downtrend witnesses lower highs and lows.
The challenge lies in predicting when and where these primary trends will conclude. The goal of Dow Theory is to leverage known information rather than making speculative guesses about the unknown. By adhering to Dow Theory guidelines, one can identify and align with the primary trend.
b)The intermediate trend or secondary trend:
This trend typically lasts from 3 weeks to several months and is characterized by reactionary movements. In a bull market, these movements are viewed as corrections, whereas in a bear market, they are seen as rally attempts.
For instance, during a primary uptrend, a stock may retrace from its high to establish a low (known as an intermediate trend or correction). Conversely, in a primary downtrend, a stock might experience a temporary rebound after a prolonged decline (known as bear market rallies).
c)The minor trend or daily fluctuations:
This trend, lasting from several days to a few hours, is the least reliable and is often disregarded according to Dow Theory. Long-term investors should perceive daily fluctuations as part of the corrective process within intermediate trends or bear market rallies.
These fluctuations represent the noise in the market and can be susceptible to manipulation. While daily price action is important, its significance lies in the context of the broader market structure.
Analyzing daily price movements over several days or weeks can provide valuable insights when viewed alongside the larger market picture. While individual pieces of the structure may seem insignificant, they are integral to completing the overall picture.
3.Major Trends Comprise Three Phases:
Dow focused extensively on major trends, identifying three distinct phases within them: Accumulation, Public participation, and Distribution.
These phases occur cyclically and repeat over time.
a) Accumulation Phase:
This phase occurs when the market is in a bearish trend, characterized by negative sentiments and a lack of hope for an upcoming uptrend. For instance, we witnessed steep declines in mid-cap stocks in the Indian share market, with new lows being made frequently.
While many investors anticipate this trend to persist indefinitely, this is actually when significant investors, such as large fund houses and institutional investors, begin gradually accumulating these stocks.
This period is known as "smart money" investing for the long term. Despite ongoing selling pressure in the market, buyers are readily found.
b) Public Participation Phase:
During this phase, the market has already absorbed the negativity, with "smart money" investing. This marks the second stage of a primary bull market and typically sees the most significant rise in prices.
At this point, the majority of the public (retail investors) also considers joining in as prices rapidly increase. However, many are left behind due to the speed of the rallies and the upward trend in averages.
Traders and investors may experience regret for not participating in the rally. This phase follows improved business conditions and increased stock valuations.
c) Distribution Phase:
The third stage represents excess, eventually transitioning into the distribution phase. In this final stage, the public (retail investors) becomes fully engaged in the market, captivated by the bull market rally.
Some investors who previously felt left out may still seek opportunities to join the rally based on valuations.
However, this is when "smart money" begins to sell off shares at every high point. Meanwhile, the public attempts to buy at these levels, absorbing the selling volumes from large investors.
In the distribution phase, whenever prices attempt to rise, "smart money" unloads their holdings.
This marks the onset of a bear market, where sentiments turn negative, bankruptcy filings increase, and economic growth shifts.
During a bear market, frustration levels rise among retail investors as hope dwindles.
4.Confirmation Between Averages is Essential:
Dow used to say that unless both Industrial and Rail(transportation) Averages exceed a previous peak, there is no confirmation or continuation of a bull market.
Both the averages did not have to move simultaneously, but the quicker one followed another – the stronger the confirmation.
To put it differently, observe the image above, as you can see both the averages are in bull market, trending upward from Point A to C.
5.Confirmation of Trends Through Volume:
Volume serves as a metric indicating the amount of shares traded within a specific timeframe, aiding in trend and pattern analysis.
According to Dow theory, a stock's uptrend should be supported by high volume and exhibit low volume during corrections.
While volume data alone may not be comprehensive, integrating it with resistance and support levels can provide a more comprehensive understanding.
6.Trend Persistence Until Clear Reversal Signals:
Similar to Newton's first law of motion, which states that an object will remain at rest or in uniform motion unless acted upon by an external force, market trends are expected to persist until a significant external force, such as changes in business conditions, prompts a reversal.
Signs of trend reversals become apparent when impending changes in trend direction are observed.
7.Signal Recognition and Trend Identification:
A significant challenge in implementing the Dow theory is accurately identifying trend reversals. Adhering to the Dow theory requires not only assessing the overall market direction but also recognizing definitive signals of trend reversals.
A key technique employed in identifying trend reversals within the Dow theory is analyzing peaks and troughs, or highs and lows. Peaks represent the highest points in a market movement, while troughs signify the lowest points.
According to the Dow theory, markets do not move in a linear fashion but rather oscillate between highs (peaks) and lows (troughs), with overall market movements trending in a particular direction.
An upward trend in Dow theory consists of a series of progressively higher peaks and troughs, while a downward trend is characterized by progressively lower peaks and troughs.
8.Market Manipulation:
Charles Dow believed that manipulation of the primary trend was improbable, while short-term trading, including intraday movements and secondary movements, could be susceptible to manipulation.
Short-term movements, ranging from hours to weeks, may be influenced by factors such as large institutions, speculators, breaking news, or rumors, potentially leading to manipulation.
While individual securities may be manipulated, such as artificially driving up prices before reverting to the primary trend, manipulating the entire market is highly unlikely due to its vast size.
Why Dow Theory Is Not Foolproof:
Dow Theory is not a fail-safe method for outperforming the market, as it is not without its flaws. Critics argue that it lacks the depth and precision of a formal theory.
Conclusion:
Understanding the Dow Theory enables traders to identify hidden trends that may elude more seasoned investors, empowering them to make informed decisions about their positions.
The Dow theory aims to pinpoint the primary trend and capitalize on significant movements. Given the market's susceptibility to emotion and tendency for overreaction, the goal is to focus on identifying and following the prevailing trend.
How CPI News Impacts Gold PricesGold prices are affected by Treasury yields and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. High inflation typically leads to higher Treasury yields due to low unemployment and an overheating economy, which can decrease gold's appeal due to rising unemployment, making gold more attractive as a safe investment. Thus, gold tends to decline with high Treasury yields in inflationary times and increase when Treasury yields fall during deflationary periods.
Gold in PPI news Gold prices are influenced by Treasury yields and economic data from the Producer Price Index (PPI). When inflation rises, Treasury yields tend to increase, often driven by higher employment rates and an overheating economy, which can push gold prices down. Conversely, when deflationary trends appear, Treasury yields typically fall, often due to higher unemployment rates, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Three Factors Keeping Oil Prices in CheckAT A GLANCE:
Despite ongoing geopolitical conflict, oil prices and volatility are relatively low
A rise in U.S. crude production and weak demand in China are helping oil inventories maintain average levels
Considering many factors like the Russia-Ukraine war, OPEC+ cutting production by 3.6 million barrels per day and conflict in the Middle East, many traders might be surprised to find out that oil prices are only around $82 per barrel and that implied volatility on crude options are trading at relatively low levels below 40%.
Inventories Remain at Average Levels
So why are crude oil prices not higher and more volatile? Part of the answer lies in inventories. Crude and product inventories are right around their seasonally adjusted averages for the past five years. This suggests that at least some cushion exists in the event of a supply disruption.
Given that oil production is about 3.5% lower globally than it would have been without OPEC+ production cuts, how is it possible that oil inventories are still at average levels? There are two reasons. First, a boom in U.S. production has replaced about one third of what OPEC cut.
The second reason is weak demand. China buys about 10 million barrels per day in the international markets, and its economy has been growing much more slowly than it was a few years ago. Slow growth in China often hits oil prices with a lag of about 12 months and may be among the factors preventing a further rise in global crude prices.
Higher Prices Expected?
That said, traders are displaying some signs of nervousness. The skew on CME Group’s WTI CVOL index is quite positive at the moment, suggesting that some traders are buying out of the money call options to protect themselves from the possibility of much higher prices.
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group
*CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
STOP Overtrading with these easy stepsDo you ever get caught in the whirlwind of overtrading?
You’re taking a ton of trades because you’re bored, to make up for losses, for the sake of trading and to maybe feel productive.
It’s like Netflix really. You’re watching your favorite TV series; before you know it, you’ve devoured the whole season in one sitting.
Time lost and you get deep withdrawal symptoms.
Well, you need to seriously stop overtrading.
It’s one of the BAD habits that you can find yourself repeating.
And over time, it will lead to a ton of losses, a blown account and you looking for the “next” best thing.
Let’s get into it.
Recognize when you’re overtrading and then simply – STOP!
TO put it blunt.
Overtrading refers to the excessive buying and selling of financial markets that are often driven by emotional decision-making rather than a strategic approach. This leads to low returns and increased risk.
First off, it’s crucial to recognize when you’re overtrading.
There are a couple of times when you could find yourself overtrading:
Chasing losses
This is where you try to recover from a losing streak by getting into more lower probability trades.
The gamblers overconfidence
The opposite can happen.
You might feel invincible and the king of the trading world, after a series of successful trades.
And this could get you to take on more trades, without proper analysis.
And it could lead to you losing all your wins for the day.
Market FOMO (Fear of Missing Out)
You might see a NEWS event come out.
Your buddy might have taken an enticing trade.
Or you just feel there is more profits you believe you can take off the table.
And so, you jumping into more trades due to the fear of missing a profit opportunity.
Boredom Fever
Your trader and time is passing and, you are getting bored.
In fact, you’re probably feeling unproductive just seeing on your hands.
And so you get into other positions to pass time or for the excitement.
And you disregard, your sound market analysis.
Attempting to meet unrealistic profit goals
Most traders have a maximum loss per day, before they stop trading.
The dangerous players try to have a minimum goal of a % win they want to achieve per day.
This is dangerous. And this can lead to overtrading and more loss taking.
Peer pressure
Like I said, you might hear from a buddy who’s taking trades.
You might hear from some economist or analyst who’s diving in.
And you’ll feel peer pressure if they get you to the point to follow them.
You have your own strategy, system and risk management analysis. You don’t need anything else!
Got it?
Top of Form So what do you do when you feel the sense of overtrading?
Here are some ideas.
How to stop overtrading with easy steps
Take a break
It’s like stepping away from a heated argument to cool off. It helps clear your head.
Pick your best times and days to trade
Not all hours are created equal.
Know the market rhythms and dance to the beat that suits you best.
Keep to your plan only
Your trading plan is your roadmap.
If your plan is to follow a mentor – so be it.
If your plan is to follow your own strategy – Go for it.
If your plan is to intraday trade, day trade, position trade or core trade – Just follow it.
Don’t venture off into uncharted territory.
Quality over quantity
Focus on making a few high-quality trades rather than a bunch of haphazard ones.
Think of it as choosing a super healthy meal over a fast-food binge.
Engage in other activities
Go enjoy other aspects of life. Trading isn’t EVERYTHING.
Go for a walk.
Play with your dog or cat.
Do other business.
Distract yourself with hobbies or exercise when you feel the urge to overtrade.
You’ll thank yourself for not taking any unnecessary trades.
Because you won’t set that dangerous precedent, which can continue at a later stage.
Final words:
Overtrading is doing exactly that. Taking too many trades without following your sound principles, strategy and analyses.
This can lead to taking low probability trades, increasing your losses and destroying your mechanical mindset and trading strategy.
Let’s sum up WHAT causes you to over trade.
Chasing losses:
The gamblers overconfidence:
Market FOMO (Fear of Missing Out)
Boredom fever
Attempting to meet unrealistic profit goals
Peer pressure
And we covered ways to STOP overtrading by things like:
Take a break
Pick your best times and days to trade
Keep to your plan only
Quality over quantity
Engage in other activities
Now you know what to do to STOP OVERTRADING.
Go and don’t do it!
WHAT ARE REAL WORLD ASSETS (RWA)?Just 3-5 years ago, the concept of "real assets" was clear-cut - physical items that could be owned such as stocks, gold, and currency. On the other hand, "derivatives" referred to intangible assets like swaps, options, and CFDs that allowed for profit-making. However, the emergence of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology has completely transformed this landscape. Not long ago, cryptocurrencies were seen as a separate entity, often labeled as a risky and unsecured financial scheme. But today, they are being recognized as valuable commodities and even as securities. What's even more fascinating is the rise of a new category - Real World Assets.
💡 Real World Assets are a unique category of financial instruments that are based on blockchain technology.
💹 Real World Assets is a market where real world assets are tokenized on the blockchain. These tokenized assets, which we refer to as real assets, are essentially moving traditional assets into decentralized financial applications. The goal is to leverage technology to potentially lower fees and management costs associated with these assets.
📍 REAL WORLD ASSETS EXAMPLES:
➡️ Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency that are centralized and backed by real assets. For instance, Tether's USDT is backed by stocks, government bonds, and fiat currencies, and undergoes some level of auditing. This process is known as tokenization, where the value of the collateral is denominated in stablecoins equivalent to fiat money. The pegging ratio is 1:1, meaning that the value of the stablecoin is directly tied to the value of the underlying assets. Any fluctuations in the value of the assets are balanced out by adding more collateral to maintain the stability of the stablecoin.
🔴 One major drawback of this model lies in the vulnerability to fluctuations in exchange rates of the real asset. In the event that stocks experience significant drawdowns of 20-30%, it is essential for the collateral to be able to mitigate this risk. Furthermore, as the stock value increases, Tether continues to issue additional USDT. Traders are already familiar with the challenges of decoupling stablecoins from their corresponding assets, particularly in the case of centralized stablecoins as opposed to algorithmic ones.
➡️ Private lending, specifically in the form of decentralized lending, has seen a significant player emerge in the form of DAO MakerDAO, the issuer of the DAI stablecoin. In a major move, this startup secured a hefty $100 million credit line with a US bank in mid-2022, backed by real assets as collateral. The startup was able to profit from this arrangement with an impressive 3% annual return. It is noteworthy that regulators did not pay attention to this deal.
➡️ Government bonds are a popular choice for investors seeking stability. Some companies have taken this a step further by issuing stablecoins that are backed by government securities. For example, Ondo Finance offers the USDY stablecoin, while Mountain Protocol offers USDM, which is based on Ethereum. These startups manage stablecoins backed by U.S. Treasury bonds, considered one of the most reliable instruments in the market. Investors can also earn passive income of 5% on top of the stability these investments offer.
➡️ Tokenized securities are on the rise, although the market has not yet reached its full potential. Bitfinex exchange is at the forefront of this trend, with their subsidiary launching the first tokenized bonds in October 2023. These bonds offer investors a tempting yield of 10% and a three-year maturity period. In essence, these tokenized securities work much like traditional bonds, where investors trade tokens for a share of the security and receive passive income in return.
🔴 Investors should be intrigued by the inquiry into how the issuer plans to allocate the funds raised and where the profit is being generated from. This question remains unanswered, as the tokenization process is still evolving. By 2024, HSBC, the British bank, is gearing up to introduce a service for managing tokenized bonds. In October 2023, JPMorgan and Barclays, along with investment firm BlackRock, unveiled a platform for transforming shares into digital assets called the Tokenized Collateral Network.
➡️ Green tokens are an emerging trend in the world of digital assets, with artificial intelligence specifically identifying them as a key player in the future. An interesting fact is that KlimaDAO, a startup backed by billionaire Mark Cuban, ultimately did not succeed in its mission to raise funds to incentivize companies to reduce their emissions. Despite this setback, the concept of green investments and tokens is likely to become a prominent tool in the future. This new form of investment may revolutionize the way companies approach sustainability and incentivize environmentally conscious behaviors. Stay tuned for more developments in the world of green tokens.
➡️ Paxos, a startup in the cryptocurrency industry, has made a connection to precious metals through the creation of gold tokens. Pax Gold has successfully replicated the value of physical gold, allowing investors to easily participate in the gold market without the need to purchase actual bullion or deal with brokers and confusing financial instruments like CFDs and swap fees. By purchasing PAXG cryptocurrency, investors can securely store it in a cold wallet, minimizing the risks associated with exchange bankruptcies or broker insolvencies.
➡️ In January 2023, the real estate startup MarketDAO facilitated a $7 million loan in cryptocurrency DAI to a French conglomerate. The loan was backed by mortgage bonds worth $40 million in US dollars. While this practice is still inconsistent, it marks the beginning of a promising trend in the real estate industry.
➡️ Paintings, sculptures, and other works of art, as well as collectibles, have long been valued for their beauty and uniqueness. The original concept behind NFTs was to revolutionize ownership by tying it to the blockchain, thereby ensuring copyright protection. In 2021-2022, we witnessed the initial steps towards digitizing and transferring paintings onto the blockchain. The future of this trend remains uncertain, but the concept has proven to be functional and shows promise for the art world.
🔴 The prospects for Real World Assets are significant and promising. However, accurately assessing these prospects is currently difficult as the tool is still in development and has not yet found its niche. Several factors are necessary for its success.
1️⃣ Firstly, there needs to be greater user engagement in cryptocurrency and digital technologies. Despite the widespread availability of the internet, not everyone has sufficient knowledge about these topics, let alone blockchain technology.
2️⃣ Secondly, there needs to be real interest and potential benefits from the tool. This can manifest in various ways, such as generating profit or simplifying certain actions. For example, the tool could speed up data transfers, protect copyrights, and make it more accessible for everyday users. Users must see the usefulness of the tool for it to be successful.
📍 CONCLUSION
Currently, the reality is that the global market is valued at hundreds of trillions of dollars, a figure that the cryptocurrency market cannot compete with. For instance, as of 2020 estimates, the worldwide real estate market is valued at approximately $326 trillion in US dollars. According to RWA.xyz, the funds locked in blockchain technology total $4.5 billion, with just over $500 million in loans issued. However, the revolution of Real World Assets technology is on the horizon. In the next 1-2 years, this tool will begin gaining traction among the masses, similar to the rise of artificial intelligence in 2023. It is predicted that in 5 years, RWA technology will reach its peak of popularity.
Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment
How to Start Forex Trading. Step-by-Step Learning Plan
Hey traders,
If you are wondering how to start Forex trading, or you just started to trade, I suggest a 12 weeks intensive learning plan.
Each week will be dedicated to a specific topic. Starting from the basics you will gradually mature and by the end of the intensive you will have a complete trading strategy.
✔️Week 1 - Practice market trend identification
Learn to identify the direction of the trend. Master the recognition of a bullish trend, bearish trend and sideways market.
✔️Week 2 - Practice support and resistance.
Learn to identify key levels. Master support & resistance recognition.
✔️Week 3 - Learn candlestick patterns.
Study classic candlestick formations and practice their recognition.
✔️Week 4 - Learn price action patterns.
Study classic price action patterns: trend-following patterns, reversal patterns and consolidation pattern and learn to recognize them.
By the end of the first month, you will mature the basics of candlestick chart analysis.
✔️Week 5 - Practice supply and demand zones.
Learn to identify supply and demand zones. Learn to combine candlestick analysis with support and resistance to identify the potential reversal zones.
✔️Week 6 - Practice multiple time frame analysis.
Master top-down analysis. Learn to apply all the techniques studied previously on multiple time frames.
✔️Week 7 - Learn different entry strategies.
With all the knowledge being obtained, you can practice different entry techniques. You can try trading candlesticks patterns or price action patterns, or simply key levels. Search what works for you.
✔️Week 8 - Learn risk management.
Of course, entry strategies are not enough for profitable trading. Learn how to set stop loss and how to manage your risks properly.
By the end of the second month, you will have a foundation for a strategy building.
✔️Week 9 - Practice trade management.
Knowing how to enter the trade and how to manage the risks, the next step is to learn how to manage the active position (stop loss trailing, position protection, manual closing, etc.)
✔️Week 10 - Create a trading plan.
Combine all the knowledge that you gained in a structured trading plan.
✔️Week 11 - Follow the strategy.
Be disciplined and follow your rules. Test them and learn to be consistent.
✔️Week 12 - Review your plan.
Following your strategy, you will inevitably find its flaws. Learn to constantly improve it.
By the end of the third month, you will have a complete rule-based trading strategy. Of course, that won't be a perfect strategy, but you will have broad knowledge in technical analysis.
The next 3 months alone should be sacrificed on polishing and improvement of your trading plan.
Try this intensive, traders. I strongly believe that you will see a dramatic improvement in your trading upon its completion.
IS IT A GOOD TIME TO BUY STOCKS? In order to assess whether it is a good time to increase exposure to riskier assets such as equities, institutional traders often use correlation tools and inter-market analysis.
Depending on the macro environment (uncertainties, market drivers, monetary narratives), traders periodically assess their exposure between offensive and defensive values (Risk-on vs Risk-off).
One of the easiest way to assess investors' trading stance and appetite for risk is to look at what is happening on other asset classes such as Bonds and currencies.
For instance, on this example you can find the US 10 year yield (bond) on the right, the US Dollar index in the middle (currency) and the S&P500 (stocks) on the right.
It is easy to notice the mechanism in place here : When the currency becomes weaker while the cash goes back into bonds (bear in mind that when bond yields drop means bond markets goes up), it usually sparks a bullish trend in the stock markets.
This is exactly what we are seeing here. Bond yields have started to drop on the 1st of May, alongside the Dollar index, which sparked a sharp rebound on the S&P500 at the same time.
Of course, sometime these three asset classes aren't correlated that much, which means there is no clear trading signal and that uncertainty lingers in the markets.
But when a drop occurs in both bond yields and the currency of a specific economic zone, this is seen as the best setup to buy stocks for traders.
This is explained by the fact that when the currency drops, large exporting groups are able to sell more internationally, boosting their exports.
Meanwhile, a drop in bond yields means investors are willing to put more cash into the market.
If you're willing to know whether it is a good time to increase your exposure to equity markets, maybe you should pay attention to what's happening in those key other assets.
Pierre Veyret, Technical Analyst at ActivTrades.
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has no been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such is to be considered to be a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
4 Golden Trading Lessons: Your Roadmap to SuccessAre your ready to elevate your trading game?
You’ll need these 4 golden tickets to have a chance.
You might have two or three of them, but it’s important to make sure so that you’re set for the rest of your trading career.
Have a read and let’s refine your trading skills.
Lesson 1: Follow a Proven Strategy and Never Deviate
Ever heard me say, “A rolling stone gathers no moss”?
That’s your trading strategy in a nutshell!
The key to success isn’t just having a strategy; it’s about taking every high probability trader, weathering through all environments and sticking to it.
Why?
Consistency is king.
Markets move up (You profit)
Markets move sideways (You lose)
Markets move down (You profit).
So you might as well enjoy the full journey and trading process you’re your one and only strategy.
So, stay the course!
Lesson 2: Only Risk What You Can Afford to Lose
Here’s a tough love moment:
Can you afford to lose what you’re risking?
Can you take the money – cut it up – throw it to the ground and you’ll be fine?
GOOD! Then you know that emotions and emergency life savings is NOT going to make the cut (no pun intended).
If you are feeling highly attached to the money, step back.
By only risking what you can afford, you keep emotions in check – win or lose.
It’s not about fear; it’s about smart, sustainable trading.
Remember, it’s a game of patience and discipline.
Lesson 3: Adhere to Strict Money Management Rules
This is your financial seatbelt.
What are your rules?
Here are some:
Risk MAX 2% per trade
Know where to place your stop loss and never move it when you’re losing
Halt trading when the drawdown is over 20% down
Never expose more than 20% of your overall portfolio
Always have a plan to deposit more money to grow more money
Lesson 4: Have a ‘Worst-Case-Scenario’ Plan
What’s your plan when the market throws a curveball?
Having a worst-case scenario plan isn’t pessimism; it’s smart trading.
You know you’re going to be in drawdown around 4 months a year.
You know there are consecutive losses to come with any trading strategy.
You know the market environments are not always to your favour.
So you need that umbrella to know when to halt trading.
Whether it’s diversifying, hedging, risking less or having a cash reserve, be ready for when the market isn’t your friend.
This isn’t about fear; it’s about being prepared.
FINAL WORDS:
These 4 Golden Trading Lessons are more than tips; they’re the pillars of successful trading.
It’s about building a trading practice that’s not just profitable, but sustainable and resilient.
Here are your 4 golden trading lessons.
Lesson 1: Follow a Proven Strategy and Never Deviate
Lesson 2: Only Risk What You Can Afford to Lose
Lesson 3: Adhere to Strict Money Management Rules
Lesson 4: Have a ‘Worst-Case-Scenario’ Plan
“DRAGON” PATTERN IN TRADINGAs we dive into studying price action, we can't help but be intrigued by the interesting names given to various patterns. Names like "Two Rivers" and "Shooting Star" not only sound captivating but also accurately describe the patterns they represent. In this post, we'll introduce you to another powerful pattern known as the Dragon. This pattern, belonging to the reversal patterns, is not only commonly found in the Forex market but is also highly effective.
💡 HOW THE DRAGON PATTERN IS FORMED?
The pattern has known points, without which the formation is not possible:
HEAD
LEFT FOOT
RIGHT FOOT
HUMP
TAIL
Each of the points, should be placed in the specified place, without distortions and various force majeure.
The Dragon pattern is a reversal pattern in the forex market.
In order to successfully trade the Dragon formation, it is crucial to have a clear understanding of the important data associated with it.
📍 Firstly, in a downtrend, you must identify the last local lower high, which will serve as the head of the Dragon pattern. Subsequently, the market will continue to decline and reach a specific level that it cannot surpass, marking the left foot of the formation.
📍 The Dragon's Hump is then formed through a corrective movement from point 1 to point 2. It is essential that this correction does not exceed 38.2% to 50%. Following this correction, the market should attempt to retest the previous lows, ideally failing to do so. This failure indicates a potential shift in momentum, allowing for a buying opportunity.
📍 Drawing a trendline from the head to the hump serves as a signal line. Once this trendline is broken, the Dragon pattern is confirmed, signaling a long position entry.
📍 Setting a Stop Loss below the dragon's feet helps to manage risk, while the first target is set at the level of the hump and the second target at the head. Take Profit levels can be set at these targets to maximize profitability.
Another possible scenario is when the bears successfully bring the market below the initial support level. Personally, I find this detail somewhat undermining to the pattern. In such a situation, it can be interpreted as follows: if the bears succeed in pushing the market to new lows, it indicates that they may not be as weak as they seemed at first, which encourages caution in buying. However, if the price returns above the last local low and creates a false breakout with a bullish divergence, it can be considered a strong signal.
The bullish reversal pattern Dragon has its counterpart in the bearish reversal pattern known as the Inverted Dragon. Just like its bullish counterpart, the Inverted Dragon follows similar patterns and characteristics, so there is no need to describe it separately. As mentioned earlier, these patterns are named for their resemblance to real-life examples, and I have included a chart overlay in the screenshot below for reference.
It is essential to have a strategy and a set of rules when considering any reversal combination in forex market. As many books suggest, patterns often form at the bottom of the market. Although the market bottom may shift quickly, it is important to stay disciplined and adhere to the rules.
The concept of identifying the market bottom involves recognizing key levels where the market has previously rebounded. If a price has bounced off a certain level in the past, there is a higher probability of it happening again in the future. Therefore, it is crucial to look for potential patterns, such as the Dragon pattern, when the price nears a support level (for bullish patterns) or a resistance level (for bearish patterns).
📒 TO AVOID MISIDENTIFYING PATTERNS, IT CAN BE HELPFUL TO FOLLOW THESE GUIDELINES:
1️⃣ Start by identifying the current trend movement. In a downtrend, look for a dragon pattern, while in an uptrend, look for an inverted dragon pattern.
2️⃣ Remember that price reversals are more likely to occur at important levels. Without a significant level, there may not be a reversal.
3️⃣ Pay attention to the hump of the dragon pattern, ensuring it does not exceed 38.2% to 50% of the distance from the head to the left foot.
4️⃣ Consider the length of the right foot, which should be 5-10% of the distance from the left foot. Ideally, the right foot should be higher, but it can also be lower.
5️⃣ If there is a trendline breakout, take your time before opening a trade. Assess the potential gain and compare it to the expected loss. If everything checks out, go ahead and take the trade.
📊 USING THE DRAGON PATTERN IN TRADING
As you can see, identifying the pattern is not difficult at all. Remember the key rules:
The hump should be between 38.2% and 50% of the head, indicating left foot movement.
The right leg should be aligned as closely as possible with the left foot.
Most importantly, pay attention to the pattern at significant levels.
The appearance of a pattern does not guarantee that the trend will reverse, but it is considered a strong signal. It is important to make sure that the pattern is formed on a sufficient amount of data. Take into account other factors such as fundamental analysis and the market context.
✅ BOTTOM LINE
The Dragon pattern is widely recognized as a strong indicator of a trend reversal, making it a valuable tool for traders looking to capitalize on market movements. While it can be a helpful guide for entering trades in line with the anticipated trend, it is important to remember that no technical indicator is foolproof and a pragmatic approach is always advised. In addition to the suggested rules, it is essential to incorporate your own money management strategies to ensure profitable implementation of the Dragon pattern. Your feedback and any further perspectives are welcomed. Thank you for your time and input.
Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment
Let’s Compare INVESTING, TRADING and GAMBLING
Hey traders,
In this post, we will compare investing, trading and gambling .
📈 Investing
Investing is the act of putting money in a financial market with the expectations of a long-term positive return.
The investing decisions are usually made using fundamental analysis.
The main goal of an investor is to predict the long-term market trends and benefit on them.
Professional investing also involves assets allocation and diversification aimed to hedge potential risks.
💱 Trading
Trading is the process of selling and buying financial instruments expecting a short-term (occasionally, mid-term) profit.
The trading decisions are usually based on technical and fundamentals analysis.
The goal of a trader is to predict local price fluctuations and catch them.
Professional trading implies strict, rule-based actions following a trading plan.
🎰 Gambling
Gambling is the act of betting on a specific event with the expectations of winning some value.
Being completely luck-based, gambling usually involves get rich quick schemes and pursuit of easy money.
What differs professional trading and investing from gambling is the fact that professional trading / investing involves objective analysis and strict planning, while gambling remains purely intuition based.
Unfortunately, most of the market participants pretend that they trade and invest professionally while acting as gamblers in fact.
Remember that long-term, consistent profits can be achieved only with the plan. Your intuition may bring some short-term profits, but in a long-run it will most likely lead you to a bankruptcy.
Stock Market Secrets You Need to KnowUnderstanding the Interplay Between S&P 500, Core CPI, and the Non-Manufacturing Index
The world of finance is a complex web of interconnected factors, where seemingly disparate indices can influence one another in unexpected ways. Among these, the S&P 500 , Core CPI ( Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index ), and the Non-Manufacturing Index stand out as key indicators of economic health. Understanding their relationship is crucial for investors, economists, and policymakers alike.
The S&P 500 , often referred to simply as "the S&P," is a stock market index that measures the performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is widely regarded as one of the best indicators of the overall health of the U.S . stock market and, by extension, the broader economy. When the S&P 500 rises, it generally indicates investor confidence and economic growth.
On the other hand, Core CPI tracks changes in the prices of goods and services consumed by households, excluding food and energy prices, which tend to be more volatile. As a measure of inflation, Core PCI provides insights into consumers' purchasing power and the overall cost of living. Central banks, such as the Federal Reserve, closely monitor inflation trends to inform their monetary policy decisions.
The Non-Manufacturing Index, also known as the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index , gauges the economic activity in the services sector, which encompasses industries such as retail, healthcare, finance, and transportation. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 suggests contraction. As services dominate modern economies, the Non-Manufacturing Index is a crucial barometer of economic health and consumer sentiment.
So, how do these indices relate to each other?
Firstly, the S&P 500 and the Non-Manufacturing Index often move in tandem. As the services sector accounts for a significant portion of the U.S. economy, positive data from the Non-Manufacturing Index tends to boost investor confidence, leading to higher stock prices reflected in the S&P 500. Conversely, a decline in the Non-Manufacturing Index may signal economic weakness, potentially causing the S&P 500 to fall.
Secondly, Core CPI plays a vital role in shaping monetary policy decisions. Central banks use inflation data to adjust interest rates and implement other monetary tools to stabilize the economy. A higher Core CPI could prompt the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy by raising interest rates to curb inflation, which could potentially dampen stock market returns represented by the S&P 500.
In summary, the relationship between the S&P 500, Core CPI, and the Non-Manufacturing Index underscores the interdependence of financial markets , consumer behavior , and economic activity . Investors and policymakers must carefully analyze these indices in concert to gain a comprehensive understanding of the prevailing economic conditions and make informed decisions.
The "Up Only" MentalityThe Allure of Upward Trends:
Humans are naturally drawn to positive trends and progress. We find satisfaction in seeing things improve, whether it's personal growth, technological advancements, or the value of our investments.
This inherent bias towards upward trends has been amplified in recent times by:
The widespread availability of information showcasing constant innovation and economic growth.
The rise of social media, where success stories and positive experiences are often overrepresented.
The Discomfort of Downturns:
When faced with downturns, corrections, or periods of stagnation, we can experience:
Psychological discomfort: The dissonance between the expected upward trajectory and the reality of a decline can be unsettling.
Fear of loss: Potential financial losses or a missed opportunity to capitalize on further gains can trigger anxiety.
Loss of control: The feeling of not being able to predict or influence the market's direction can be frustrating.
The "Up Only" Mentality:
The combination of these factors can contribute to an "up only" mentality, where anything less than constant growth is perceived as negative. This mindset can manifest in various ways:
Unrealistic expectations: Expecting consistent, uninterrupted upward trends in investments, careers, or even personal lives.
Impatience: A growing sense of frustration when progress feels slow or when setbacks occur.
Disillusionment: A tendency to view downturns as failures or signs of an impending collapse.
Important Considerations:
Market Cycles are Inevitable: All markets, including financial markets, experience natural cycles of growth and decline. Downturns are a normal part of the economic and investment landscape.
Long-Term Perspective: Focusing solely on short-term price fluctuations can lead to emotional investment decisions and missed opportunities.
Psychological Biases: Understanding our inherent bias towards positive trends can help us make more rational decisions during periods of market volatility.
Conclusion:
Our tendency to favor upward trends and feel discomfort during downturns is a natural human response. However, recognizing this bias and adopting a long-term perspective are crucial for navigating the inevitable cycles of growth and decline within markets and various aspects of life.