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Fundamental Analysis

Learn What is FOREX Market. Trading Volumes & Market Participant Forex - foreign exchange market, is a location where international currencies are bought and sold by economic participants at various exchange rates. Forex market is the biggest market in the world, reaching on average 6 trillion dollars trading volumes daily. Forex market is a vital element for a global economy because it provides capital exchanges between the countries. The main market participants of forex market are central banks, commercial banks, commercial companies, hedge funds and investors. 🕰In order to grasp how big is that market, take a look what is happening on that just in 60 seconds: 📎Total transactions value reaches 3.52 billion US dollars. 📎 1.15 billion dollars of spot transactions. 📎 1.65 billion dollar of exchange swaps. 📎 Total transactions value involving USD reaches 3 billion US dollars. 📎 Total transactions value involving EURO reaches 1.1 billion US dollars. 📎 Just one single EUR/USD pair accumulates 812 million US dollars transactions value. It is hard to imagine how such big amounts are rolling with such a frequency and how insignificant are the orders of individual traders.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
1
Bitcoin REALISM I am definitely not going to win any popularity competitions with my comments and thoughts. But that's not the point when it comes to making money. The main issue for me still in Crypto Land is the lack of realism. The image on the front cover was from a google search of "realism" I guess the confused face made my day. This is exactly how you need to be looking when you read these points below. I have explained the logic of every major move over the last couple of years and this guys - is no different. So let's start by exploring the reality of market cap for one. When you buy a stock you have a number of stocks in circulation times that by the price and you can get a market cap. Of course, unlike most companies on the exchange Bitcoin CANNOT just issue new stock. We have to remember some Bitcoin are gone and lost forever so this number will likely end up around 20million and not the full 21m. The current Market cap is roughly 19,806,000 x $42,897. Let's call it a little over 820 Billion. At the ATH of $69,000 we saw $1.302 Trillion. Lets look at what is needed and an angle of attack if Bitcoin was to hit $500k by Jan 25, 26, 27, 28 or 2029. This is only one aspect of the story. Prior to the ETF launch people were saying silly things like "Trillions coming in, $100k imminent" Blackrock's largest ETF is roughly $354 Billion. This is the SP500 fund founded back in 2001. So 23 years old roughly now. Here's the actual chart. What does this mean? Well, let's say Blackrock decided to close their biggest ETF and throw it all into Bitcoin. That level would still not take us back to the current ATH. Bullish, Bullish, Bullish - we are still $25,000+ under the current ATH. So what about other ETF's? Obviously the market is bigger than just Blackrock. Let's look at this aspect too. Look at the end of 2021 as the ETF market collectively was at it's high. We are talking about $10Trillion in 8,552 ETF's. I've posted several times about the current COT landscape. Clearly social media Bitcoin is buzzing and everyone is about to become rich, it's different this time and so on. Well, COT says otherwise. Back at the top when everyone was calling for $135,000 I said the reason for the drop would be liquidity. So why is this different? I said there were two likely scenario's on the table as we moved down. The first was we were in an early stage accumulation, we needed to go up to 32k and back down to the low 20's. This would allow us to travel much higher and sustain such a large move. The second option was bearish. Well, I guess the second move played out. The momentum is still clearly not with us - we are still FWB:25K + under the current ATH - not what one would or should expect after 12 Bitcoin specific ETF's obtaining approval & launching. Look at the momentum People seem to fall into the echo chamber and all logic leaves the building. I have been at this game a long, long time. Seen it all before and I am sure I will see it again. This does not mean I am Bearish or anti Bitcoin - not for one second. I am one of the lucky ones in at the right time, sold a lot on the way up and happy with the current holdings. All I am trying to emphasis here - is don't get sucked into the void which is not supported by ANY sound logic. I recently watched a couple of video's with Warren Buffet, another with Jim Rickards. They both explained something very interesting in a very clear way. Although Anti Bitcoin - what they said made a lot of sense. The same lesson kinda applies to things like gold. When you buy an asset, the asset can produce for you. So assume you buy a house - you get rental income each month and with the price of the property going up over time you make gains there. Buy a business same thing - Buffet explained this using a farm as the example. Sell grains, cows or whatever you farm. Over time you still hold the asset. This isn't true for the likes of diamonds, gold or Bitcoin. Hence it fits into the greater fool theory. If I sell you my last bitcoin I picked up for less than $200. You buy it all today at $42,850. You have to find someone else willing to pay you more than the $42,850 in the future. For me, this is the main reason I don't personally care up or down or sideways here. But many in the echo chamber do. The average price across the breakeven addresses are around $37k - this is Breakeven not profit. So imagine majority of the retail crowd with an average entry after DCA'in at $37k. These are all things to keep in mind when your playing shorter term moves. ETF's are structured in such a way long term growth can be expected, volatility get's somewhat reduced. You noticed what's happened on the weekends since the launch? So whilst I expect it to go up in the long run. We need a healthy pullback as to be expected. This gives more time for real accumulation to happen - but this will also put some stress on that average (BE) level of $37k. Just keep this in mind and one more thing if you want to comment on "oh your wrong - up only" give some logic to support it or I won't bother responding. This move will take time. For me, nothing has changed since 2022. We are not ready for new highs - YET... Anyway enjoyed or not I thought it was worth another educational post. Stay safe! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
74
THREE DRIVES PATTERNThree Drives Pattern is a price pattern that consists of three consecutive changes in the market. The first and third are strong moves in one direction, while the second is weaker and in the opposite direction. The pattern can be used in trading to determine direction and predict optimal entry-exit points. Below we take a closer look at what this tool is, how it is formed and how to trade it correctly. What is the Three Drive Pattern? • Three Drives Pattern in trading is a reversal pattern formed from three consecutive price movements in the market: • First is an up or down swing that creates a trend; • The second is a correction of the trend, which is usually about 50% - 61.8% of the first impulse leg; • Third resumption of the trend, which is usually in the opposite direction of the correction. In the case of a bullish trend, the Three Drive Pattern often indicates that the trend is about to end. This is the case because a second downward movement indicates high selling pressure on the market. If the second momentum is strong enough, it can lead to a reversal in the trend. In a bearish trend, the Three Drives Pattern often indicates that a bearish trend may end in a reversal. This is because the second upward movement indicates the following: buyers are starting to put pressure on the market. If the second momentum is strong enough, a trend-reversal scenario is possible. The harmonic reversal pattern requires a competent approach on the part of the trader. It is important to use it in combination with other technical indicators, not to trade against the trend, and not to enter the market before the completion of the pattern. This means that the second movement is completed, and the market returns to the previous version in the direction of the first movement. The Three Drive Pattern is a useful tool that can be used in trading to determine the direction of the trend and forecast the optimal entry and exit points. How the Three Drives Pattern is Formed? Bullish Pattern The bullish pattern of three movements consists of three consecutive downward impulses. It is formed when market makers place shorts and is formed as follows: • A strong downward movement, which is usually the beginning of a trend. • An upward correction in the form of a weaker impulse. Indicates attempts to stop the downtrend by market participants. • A strong downward movement that exceeds the level of the first move. Ratios of impulse legs: First is 1.13 or 1.27; Second is 0,786; Third is 1,618. In the case of a bullish pattern, it is worth considering selling after the completion of the third movement. Additional signals could be a change in indicators, a decrease in trading volume, a break of support, or a resistance level. As in the case discussed above, it is not recommended to use such a tool on its own, trade against the trend, or act early. As you can see above, the market started the trend with the first downward impulse. Then it experienced an upward correction and resumed the trend with the third downward impulse. We always place a stop loss to protect against losses. After opening a position, wait for a pullback towards the first impulse to close the trade or add another position to it. Take into account that the price may be at the right point, but the pattern still may not work. Bearish Pattern A bearish pattern of three movements is a price pattern formed from three impulses showing growth. It is used by traders to find the best point to open a position against the market changes. • A strong upward movement, which is usually the beginning of a bearish trend. • A downward correction and a small market reversal that does not reach the level of the first impulse. This may be preceded by the fact that sellers show resistance and try to stop the trend. • A powerful upward movement that exceeds the level of the first impulse. This indicates that the trend is continuing and that the end of the trend is not imminent. Impulse legs have the following level: First move is 1.13 or 1.27; Second move is 0,786; Third move is 1,618. The ratios mentioned are not strict. The pattern is more reliable if it is accompanied by other signals, such as: A change in trend direction indicators; an increase in trading volume; divergence with an oscillator; the presence of support below or resistance above. Always use the tool in combination with other technical indicators to get an accurate prediction. Also, do not trade against the trend. As you can see on the chart, the market started a bearish trend from the first impulse upwards. After it experienced a downward correction, it did not reach the minimum or level of the first impulse. Finally, the market resumed the trend with the third upward impulse. How To Trade Using The Three Drives Pattern? 1. Find three consecutive movements on the chart that meet the criteria of the pattern. 2. Do not enter the market until the pattern is complete. 3. Make an entry at the initial point of the third move after it reaches the fibonichci extension level of 127.2% - 161.8%. 4. Place a stop above the 161.8% expansion level to protect losses in case the pattern doesn't work and goes lower or higher. 5. Close the trade when the market reaches the target profit at the 50% - 61.8% retracement of the whole pattern or you can at the level of the start of the first impulse. As you can see in the chart below, the market started bullish - the first impulse. Then there was a correction, which did not reach the level of the first impulse. Finally, the market resumed the trend and finished with the third impulse, in which the price went down and completed the pattern. Note that the price was at a strong co-contraction level. You can draw a trend line from above. The last element that hinted at a change of trend was the divergence. Use other technical indicators. The three-move pattern is a valuable tool, but it is not an accurate one. Using other tools, such as trend direction and volume indicators, can help improve the accuracy of your forecasts. Do not trade against the trend. A three-move pattern can be more reliable if it is used to confirm a trend. Be prepared for the pattern not to work like any other technical pattern. Bottom line The Three Drive Pattern is a reversal pattern. It can be used to determine the trend direction, as well as to predict potential entry and exit points. The optimal place to open a position is the level of the first impulse, and the exit point is reaching the target profit calculated using the Fibonacci ratio. Trading against the trend is riskier than trading in the direction of original market movement. This is because the price can continue to move in a given direction even if you see a reversal signal. This is why you need to proceed with caution and use other tools to back you up. Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment
Education
by Lingrid
12
EXPLAINED: Odd Lot Offer EasilyWHAT IS AN ODD LOT OFFER? An odd-lot offer is a financial transaction. It is where a company offers to buy back small quantities of its shares from shareholders who hold fewer shares than the typical trading unit. Usually it’s under 100 shares. In the context of stock markets, an “odd lot” refers to a number of shares that is less than the standard trading lot. Here are the key points about an odd-lot offer: Target Audience: Aimed at shareholders who own fewer shares than the standard trading unit (commonly 100 shares). Purpose: Typically initiated by a company to reduce the number of small shareholders and simplify its shareholder structure. Offer Terms: The company specifies an offer price at which it is willing to buy back the odd lots of shares. This price may be at a premium to the current market price. Voluntary Participation: Shareholders are not obligated to participate; it’s a voluntary decision on their part. Cost Reduction: Companies may implement odd-lot offers to reduce administrative costs associated with managing a large number of small shareholders. Shareholder Choice: Odd-lot shareholders can decide whether to sell their shares to the company at the offered price or to retain their shares. Tax Implications: Companies may structure odd-lot offers in a way that has specific tax implications for shareholders. It’s common for the offer to be treated as a return of capital rather than a dividend. Approval Process: In many cases, such offers require approval from the company’s shareholders, often obtained at a general meeting. Let’s use an example with City Lodge in 2023. 1. What’s Going On: As of October 16, 2023, there were a bunch of small-scale shareholders in City Lodge, each holding fewer than 100 shares. These investrs are referred to as “Odd-lot Holders,” which make up 58.22% of all City Lodge shareholders. However, when you look at the total shares they own, it’s just a tiny 0.06% of the market. Now, managing these tiny portions costs a lot, creating a headache for everyone. 2. The solution To solve this issue, at City Lodge’s board of directors are suggesting an Odd-lot Offer. This means they want to buy back the small amounts of shares from these Odd-lot Holders, making life simpler for everyone involved. 3. So what do these Odd-lot holders get? If you’re one of these Odd-lot Holders, you get a chance to cash at a price that’s 5% more than the average value of City Lodge shares over the past 30 days. It’s like a special deal, and you won’t have to pay any fees to make the transaction. 4. How it works To make this happen, City Lodge needs approval from its shareholders. They discussed it at the Annual General Meeting on November 23, 2023. If the plan gets a green light, Odd-lot Holders can decide to sell their shares at the offered price or keep them. 5. The tax story They considered the Odd-lot Offer isn’t a dividend but more like a return of capital. This decision has some tax implications, so they suggest you chat with your tax expert for the details. City Lodge wants to simplify its shareholder list, and if you’re an Odd-lot Holder, you have a choice to make – take the deal or keep riding the City Lodge wave. Does that help and did it help you?
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
2
What is OrderBlock ⁉️‼️ Order Blocks are candles where Market Makers (Banks) have placed their positions, generally, the market returns to those candles and they are never violated. There're 2 types of Order Blocks: 1. The Bullish Order Block is the last bearish candle before the bullish movement, that Break The Market Structure Higher. Represents a high possibility of holding the price, when the price returns to it. 2. The Bearish Order Block is the last bullish candle before the bearish movement, that Break The Market Structure Lower. Represents a high possibility of holding the price, when the price returns to it.
Education
by Snick3rSD
2
CHOCH vs BOS ‼️WHAT IS BOS ? BOS - break of strucuture. I will use market structure bullish or bearish to understand if the institutions are buying or selling a financial asset. To spot a bullish / bearish market structure we should see a higher highs and higher lows and viceversa, to spot the continuation of the bullish market structure we should see bullish price action above the last old high in the structure this is the BOS. BOS for me is a confirmation that price will go higher after the retracement and we are still in a bullish move WHAT IS CHOCH? CHOCH - change of character. Also known as reversal, when the price fails to make a new higher high or lower low, then the price broke the structure and continue in other direction.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Snick3rSD
What is Confluence❓✅ Confluence refers to any circumstance where you see multiple trade signals lining up on your charts and telling you to take a trade. Usually these are technical indicators, though sometimes they may be price patterns. It all depends on what you use to plan your trades. A lot of traders fill their charts with dozens of indicators for this reason. They want to find confluence — but oftentimes the result is conflicting signals. This can cause a lapse of confidence and a great deal of confusion. Some traders add more and more signals the less confident they get, and continue to make the problem worse for themselves. ✅ Confluence is very important to increase the chances of winning trades, a trader needs to have at least two factors of confluence to open a trade. When the confluence exists, the trader becomes more confident on his negotiations. ✅ The Factors Of Confluence Are: Higher Time Frame Analysis; Trade during London Open; Trade during New York Open; Refine Higher Time Frame key levels in Lower Time Frame entries; Combine setups; Trade during High Impact News Events. ✅ Refine HTF key levels in LTF entries or setups for confirmation that the HTF analysis will hold the price. HTF Key Levels Are: HTF Order Blocks; HTF Liquidity Pools; HTF Market Structure.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Snick3rSD
Market Structure Identification ✅Hello traders! I want to share with you some educational content. ✅ MARKET STRUCTURE . Today we will talk about market structure in the financial markets, market structure is basically the understading where the institutional traders/investors are positioned are they short or long on certain financial asset, it is very important to be positioned your trading opportunities with the trend as the saying says trend is your friend follow the trend when you are taking trades that are alligned with the strucutre you have a better probability of them closing in profit. ✅ Types of Market Structure Bearish Market Structure - institutions are positioned LONG, look only to enter long/buy trades, we are spotingt the bullish market strucutre if price is making higher highs (hh) and higher lows (hl) Bullish Market Structure - institutions are positioned SHORT, look only to enter short/sell trades, we are spoting the bearish market strucutre when price is making lower highs (lh) and lower lows (ll) Range Market Structure - the volumes on short/long trades are equall instiutions dont have a clear direction we are spoting this strucutre if we see price making equal highs and equal lows and is accumulating . I hope I was clear enough so you can understand this very important trading concept, remember its not in the number its in the quality of the trades and to have a better quality try to allign every trading idea with the actual structure
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Snick3rSD
🔜RULE FOLLOWING CHALLENGE, join to improve your trading 💪Did you know that most beginner traders can't follow their rules for 7 days in a row? Unfortunately, they start overtrading or changing the rules of the system, entering random trades, overrisk, etc. I've been there many many times myself, but then slowly started focusing on this part and made my first 7, then 10 days of rules following, broke with another tilt, started again, reached 17, 30 days, and failed again. Each time it became better and better, and now I'm on my way to 50 days of rule-following. I developed a routine and system that allows me to keep doing it, day after day. It includes mental technics, as well as simple EAs for Metatrader to help with over-risking and overtrading issues. If you want to step out of your comfort zone and improve your trading, join this 7-day rule-following challenge by leaving a comment below. It will be hosted here on TradingView, probably using the Stream feature, but I'll let you know later when we will gather up.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Yelli_trades
3
5 Steps Smart Money Concept Model5 STEPS SMART MONEY CONCEPT MODEL Break of Structure (BOS): Definition: A Break of Structure occurs when the market provides the initial indication that the price is likely to reverse. For example, a new lower low and lower high signal a disrupted market structure, indicating a forthcoming reversal to the downside. Trading Approach: Traders typically align their trades with the Higher Time Frame (HTF) BOS, especially when the price closes above/below a swing high/low. Change in Character (CHOCH): Definition: A CHOCH represents an initial shift that can signal a short- or long-term price reversal. It is considered a reversal pattern, utilized by SMC traders on higher time frames for market direction and on lower time frames for trade opportunities. Implementation: SMC traders use CHOCHs on various time frames to gauge market direction and identify intraday reversals or reactions to Points of Interest (POIs). Fair Value Gap (FVG): Definition: Fair Value Gaps highlight market inefficiencies or imbalances, where buying and selling are not equal. These gaps become magnets for price, resolving the inefficiency as resting orders are filled. Utilization: Traders use FVG information to target these gaps, identifying potential entry points for long or short positions. Fair Value Gaps are considered valuable Points of Interest (POIs) in price action trading.
Education
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Interest Rates Trading and Hedging Through a New LensIntroduction In the dynamic world of financial markets, Micro 10-Year Yield Futures stand out as a pivotal tool for traders and investors. These futures offer unique opportunities to navigate the complexities of interest rates, particularly in an environment influenced by key economic indicators. This article delves into how traders can leverage both fundamental economic data and a novel technical analysis approach to optimize their strategies in trading and hedging with these futures. Fundamental Analysis Approach Understanding CPI, PPI, and Unemployment Rate: Consumer Price Index (CPI): This indicator measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services. It's a critical gauge of inflation, directly impacting interest rates and, consequently, the yields on Treasury securities. Producer Price Index (PPI): PPI tracks the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation when producers pass on higher costs to consumers. Unemployment Rate: This key metric reflects the number of unemployed workers as a percentage of the labor force. It’s vital for assessing the health of the economy, influencing monetary policy and interest rates. These indicators, notably their changes, provide crucial insights for active trading, particularly in hedging strategies with Micro 10-Year Yield Futures. For instance, a higher-than-expected CPI or PPI might signal rising inflation, prompting traders to anticipate rate hikes and adjust their positions accordingly. How to incorporate Fundamental Analysis into the trade decision process? When making trading decisions for Micro 10-Year Yield Futures, it's crucial to understand the impact of economic reports on interest rates: Buying (Long) Position Rationale: When CPI, PPI, and Employment Rate (opposite of unemployment) are all increasing (indicated by green color on the chart), it typically suggests an expanding economy and potential inflationary pressures. In such scenarios, interest rates are likely to rise to manage inflation. Hence, buying 10-Year Yield Futures could become a strategic move, anticipating a potential uptick in yields. Selling Existing Long Positions: A decrease in any of these indicators (CPI, PPI, Employment Rate) signals a potential slowdown or less aggressive inflationary pressure. Traders holding long positions might consider selling to lock in profits or prevent losses, anticipating a potential drop in yields. Selling (Short) Position Rationale: If these reports show a decreasing trend (indicated by red color on the chart), it suggests economic contraction or reduced inflationary pressure. Lower interest rates are often introduced to stimulate economic growth in such conditions. Shorting 10-Year Yield Futures could be advantageous as it would benefit from a potential fall in yields. Buying Existing Short Positions: An increase in any of these indicators (CPI, PPI, Employment Rate) signals a potential expanding economy and potential inflationary pressures. Traders holding short positions might consider buying to lock in profits or prevent losses, anticipating a potential rise in yields. Rationale Behind the Rules: These rules are based on the traditional economic relationship between inflation, economic activity, and interest rates. Rising inflation or strong economic growth (indicated by higher CPI, PPI, and Employment Rates) often leads to higher interest rates to prevent the economy from overheating. Conversely, decreasing indicators suggest an economy that might need stimulation, often leading to lower interest rates. By aligning trading strategies with these fundamental economic principles, traders can make more informed decisions, leveraging economic trends to speculate or hedge effectively. Technical Analysis Approach Yield Extremes and Curve Analysis: This approach involves charting and combining the 2-Year and 30-Year yield futures contracts in one chart. Analyzing the relationship between these yields provides insights similar to traditional yield curve analysis in a much more accessible format. Key Indicator: A crossover between the 2-Year and 30-Year rates signifies a substantial shift in market sentiment and economic outlook. How to Incorporate Technical Analysis into the Trade Decision Process? As said, the crossover of yield rates between the 2-year and the 30-year yields is a pivotal event, suggesting significant changes in the yield curve. Here's how to interpret and act on these occurrences: Identifying the Crossover Event: A crossover event occurs when the 2-year yield rate overtakes the 30-year rate, or vice versa. This event is indicative of a significant change in the interest rate environment, reflecting shifts in economic expectations and monetary policy. Trading Strategy Based on Micro 10-Year Prior Price Action: When the crossover occurs, the immediate strategy depends on the recent trend in the Micro 10-Year Yield Futures prices. If the Micro 10-Year Yield was trending upwards prior to the crossover, it suggests bullish sentiment in the shorter term. In this scenario, traders could consider taking a short position, anticipating a potential reversal or bearish shift in the market. Conversely, if the Micro 10-Year Yield was trending downwards, indicating bearish sentiment, traders could consider a long position post-crossover, capitalizing on the potential for a bullish reversal or recovery in prices. Rationale Behind the Trade Rules: The crossover event between the 2-Year and 30-Year yields represents a pivotal shift in market dynamics, often reflecting changes in economic policy, inflation expectations, or investor sentiment. Prior price action in the Micro 10-Year Yield Futures provides a context for these shifts, indicating the market's prevailing trend and sentiment. By aligning trading actions with both the yield curve dynamics (crossover event) and the recent trend of the Micro 10-Year Futures, traders can make informed decisions, leveraging the market's anticipated reaction to these significant economic indicators. Market Outlook and Trade Plan Keeping in mind the below tick and (Average True Range) ATR values, based on our analysis, we could express our market views through the following hypothetical set-ups: Trade Plan for the Fundamental Analysis Approach: ENTRY: Wait for the next CPI, PPI and Employment Rate reports and consider executing a trade if all 3 reports are either positive (long) or negative (short). STOP LOSS: Located 1 Monthly ATR away from the entry price Trade Plan for the Technical Analysis Approach: ENTRY: The crossover may confirm itself at the end of the day. Wait for such confirmation and consider executing a short trade once confirmed. STOP LOSS: Located 1 Monthly ATR away from the entry price Tick Value: 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Monthly ATR: The average volatility is measured as 0.509 at the time of this report Trade Example: If the 2-Year yield rises above the 30-Year yield amid rising CPI, consider a short position anticipating rate hikes. Reward-to-Risk Ratio: Calculate this ratio to ensure a balanced approach to potential gains versus losses. Risk Management in Futures Trading Effective risk management is paramount. Utilize stop-loss orders and consider hedging techniques to mitigate potential losses. Understand the significance of economic reports and yield curve shifts in making informed decisions. Conclusion Micro 10-Year Yield Futures offer a versatile platform for interest rate trading and hedging. By combining monthly economic updates with a unique yield curve analysis approach, traders can navigate these markets with greater confidence and strategic foresight. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!Education
by traddictiv
2024 US Recession | Key Factors2000 DOT-COM CRISIS The dot-com crisis, also known as the "dot-com bubble" or "dot-com crash," was a period of economic turbulence that affected the technology and telecommunications sectors in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Here are some key points: Euphoria Phase: In the 1990s, there was a boom in the technology and dot-com industry fueled by irrational investor euphoria. Many companies secured significant funding, even if they had weak or nonexistent business models. Excessive Valuations: Valuations of technology companies skyrocketed, often based on exaggerated growth projections and unrealistic expectations. This led to rampant speculation in financial markets. Bubble and Collapse: In 2000, the dot-com bubble began to burst. Many investors realized that numerous technology companies were unable to generate profits in the short term. This triggered a massive sell-off of stocks and a collapse in tech stock prices. Economic Impacts: The crisis had widespread economic impacts, with the loss of value in many technology stocks and the bankruptcy of numerous companies. Investors suffered heavy losses, and this had repercussions on the entire stock market. Economic Lessons: The dot-com crisis led to a reassessment of investment practices and taught lessons about the importance of carefully analyzing companies' fundamentals and avoiding investments based solely on speculative expectations. Following this crisis, the technology sector experienced a correction but also contributed to shaping the industry in a more sustainable way. Many companies that survived the crisis implemented more realistic and sustainable strategies, contributing to the subsequent growth and development of the technology sector. 2007-2008 FINANCIAL CRISIS The 2007-2008 financial crisis was a widespread event that had a significant impact on the global economy. Here are some key points: Origins in the Subprime Mortgage Crisis: The crisis originated in the U.S. real estate sector, particularly in subprime mortgages (high-risk). An increase in mortgage defaults led to severe losses for financial institutions holding securities tied to these loans. Spread of Financial Problems: Losses in the mortgage sector spread globally, involving international financial institutions. Lack of transparency in complex financial products contributed to the crisis's diffusion. Bank Failures and Government Bailouts: Several major financial institutions either failed or were on the brink of failure. Government interventions, including bailouts and nationalizations, were necessary to prevent the collapse of the financial system. Stock Market Crashes: Global stock markets experienced significant crashes. Investors lost confidence in financial institutions, leading to a flight from risk and an economic contraction. Impact on the Real Economy: The financial crisis directly impacted the real economy. The ensuing global recession resulted in the loss of millions of jobs, decreased industrial production, and a contraction in consumer spending. Financial Sector Reforms: The crisis prompted a reevaluation of financial regulations. In response, many nations implemented reforms to enhance financial oversight and mitigate systemic risks. Lessons Learned: The financial crisis underscored the need for more effective risk management, increased transparency in financial markets, and better monitoring of financial institutions. The 2007-2008 financial crisis had a lasting impact on the approach to economic and financial policies, leading to greater awareness of systemic risks and the adoption of measures to prevent future crises. 2019 PRE COVID In 2019, I closely observed a significant event in the financial markets: the inversion of the yield curve, with 3-month yields surpassing those at 2, 5, and 10 years. This phenomenon, known as an inverted yield curve, is generally considered an advanced signal of a potential economic recession and has often been linked to various financial crises in the past. The inversion of the yield curve occurred when short-term government bond yields, such as those at 3 months, exceeded those at long-term, like 2, 5, and 10 years. This situation raised concerns among investors and analysts, as historically, similar inversions have been followed by periods of economic contraction. Subsequently, in 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic occurred, originating in late 2019 in the city of Wuhan, Hubei province, China. The virus was identified as a new strain of coronavirus, known as SARS-CoV-2. The global spread of the virus was rapid throughout 2020, causing a worldwide pandemic. Countries worldwide implemented lockdown and social distancing measures to contain the virus's spread. The economic impact of the pandemic was significant globally, with sectors such as tourism, aviation, and hospitality particularly affected, leading to business closures and job losses. Efforts to develop a vaccine for COVID-19 were intense, and in 2020, several vaccines were approved, contributing to efforts to contain the virus's spread. In 2021, the Delta variant of the virus emerged as a highly transmissible variant, leading to new increases in cases in many regions worldwide. Subsequent variants continued to impact pandemic management. Government and health authorities' responses varied from country to country, with measures ranging from lockdowns and mass vaccinations to specific crisis management strategies. The pandemic highlighted the need for international cooperation, robust healthcare systems, and global preparedness to address future pandemics. In summary, the observation of the yield curve inversion in 2019 served as a predictive element, suggesting imminent economic challenges, and the subsequent pandemic confirmed the complexity and interconnectedness of factors influencing global economic health. 2024 Outlook The outlook for 2024 presents significant economic challenges, outlined by a series of critical indicators. At the core of these dynamics are the interest rates, which have reached exceptionally high levels, fueling an atmosphere of uncertainty and impacting access to credit and spending by businesses and consumers. One of the primary concerns is the inversion of the yield curve, manifested between July and September 2022. This phenomenon, often associated with periods of economic recession, has heightened alarm about the stability of the economic environment. The upward break of the 3-month curve compared to the 2, 5, 10, and 30-year curves has raised questions about the future trajectory of the economy. Simultaneously, housing prices in the United States have reached historic highs, raising concerns about a potential real estate bubble. This situation prompts questions about the sustainability of the real estate market and the risks associated with a potential collapse in housing prices. Geopolitical instability further contributes to the complexity of the economic landscape. With ongoing conflicts in Russia, the Red Sea, Palestine, and escalating tensions in Taiwan, investors are compelled to assess the potential impact of these events on global economic stability. The S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Composite Index, showing an upward trend since December 2021, suggests an increase in financial difficulties among consumers. Similarly, the charge-off rate on credit card loans for all commercial banks, increasing since the first quarter of 2022, reflects growing financial pressure on consumers and the banking sector. In this context, it is essential to adopt a prudent approach based on a detailed analysis of economic and financial data. The ability to adapt to changing market conditions becomes crucial for individuals, businesses, and financial institutions. Continuous monitoring of the evolution of economic and geopolitical indicators will be decisive in understanding and addressing the challenges that 2024 may bring.
TVC:US03MYEducation
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Traders Don’t Fail – They QuitIt’s been a very tough year for swing traders. Go long the market drops. Go short the market rallies. Don’t do anything and you save from the burn. But in the bigger scheme of things, it looks like we are in an accumulation phase. The accumulation phase is a period in which smart money (informed and experienced traders or institutional investors) is believed to be accumulating a particular asset while it is still relatively undervalued. This phase occurs before a notable uptrend or bullish move in the market. Key characteristics of the accumulation phase include: Sideways Movement: Prices move within a trading range, often forming a base or a consolidation pattern. The range represents a period of equilibrium between buying and selling forces. You can see the JSE ALSI has been in a tight range this entire year. Decreasing Volume: Volume tends to decline during the accumulation phase, indicating a decrease in overall market activity. Lower volume signals that the asset is not attracting significant attention from the broader market. There have not been huge orders on the JSE ALSI like other years. It could be because there are LESS investors buying shares and more going into derivatives and margin trading. Or because they are worried about the state of the economy with load shedding, foreign direct investments pulling out, the country being rated down or people fleeing the country. Smart Money Accumulation: Informed traders or institutional investors quietly accumulate the asset during this phase. Their accumulation is not typically evident in the overall market activity due to the relatively low volume. Now with December, we could see investors piling into trades from their bonuses, offsetting taxes, preparing for the next year or with optimism with the festive season. Transition to Markup Phase: After a sufficient accumulation, there is an expectation that the asset’s price will break out of the trading range. This breakout marks the end of the accumulation phase and the beginning of the markup phase, characterized by a sustained uptrend. So, my hopes and bets are UP. I think once we break out above the range, we could see the JSE ALSI rally a good 10 -20%. But geez, we need strong catalysts to kick in. Even if it’s international markets helping us run up with Dual LIsted companies or America’s leading influence. What are your thoughts? You think we’ll get our long waited for rally? Traders and investors who stay in the game will reap the rewards. Patience is a trader's virtue. Impatience is the reason why traders quit. They don’t FAIL – THEY QUIT.
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
WHAT IS NONFARM PAYROLLS?Let's talk about trading on Nonfarm payrolls news. What is this news, why traders always expect it, when it comes out, where to look for it and most importantly why the market fluctuates like crazy when NonFarm Payrolls are released? What is Nonfarm Payrolls? Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is the number of new jobs in nonfarm sectors of the economy over the past month. The released figures show the dynamics of changes (increase, decrease) relative to the previous period. This statistic covers about 500 sectors of the economy: construction, trade, business services, transportation, logistics, financial sector, health care, tourism and so on. The calculations do not take into account workers in the agricultural sector, non-profit organizations and self-employed citizens. A change in the NFP value of 100-200 thousand jobs will lead to strong volatility in prices of world currencies in pairs with the U.S. dollar, gold and stock markets. When Is This Data Released? NFP is calculated and published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), releasing preliminary data on the first Friday of each month. Given the significance and impact of the event on the global economy, a repost of these statistics can be seen on any economic calendar, the primary source is on the BLS website. You can also view upcoming economic events on the popular Forex Factory service. The time of news release depends on the U.S. Bureau of Statistics. A trader should check the exact time and date of release every time, as it depends on the readiness of calculations of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Any calendar indicates the format of data in the form of three figures: previous, actual value and forecast. How Does The Market React? Traders evaluate the released data by several criteria: • Matching with the forecast or with the previous value. With such figures, a spike in volatility can take place without a strong and directional short-term movement; • Strong changes cause global shifts such as reversals or strengthening of long-term trends, changes in historical volatility values. Job growth is a leading indicator of growth in the U.S. economy. New hands in an office or manufacturing facility is the last stage of preliminary work done by a company to expand its business. By this time, it has: 1. Attracted investment 2. Expanded production capacity or sales departments for already purchased products 3. Growing employment leads to US GDP growth, low nonfarm payrolls data is a sign of a coming crisis This is clearly seen in the graph of all employees, built on the dynamics of changes in NFP since the beginning of the calculation, where the areas of global economic crises are marked. Why Does The Market "Fly" On Nonfarm Payrolls ? Significant price changes occurring in the Forex market when macroeconomic indicators are released are due to the lack of support for prices by market makers. During the release of important news, there is no need to support market liquidity, as the attention and funds of large players are attracted. As it was said above - the value of the indicator is a signal for revision of long-term trends, so huge amounts of funds are put in motion. The absence of a market-maker leads: • Spread widening (distance between buying and selling prices); • Low volumes of nearby orders in the stack. Therefore, the inputs of large players literally "collect the stack" at the moment of dismantling orders at all price levels, the same applies to the exit from positions. The market moves by 50-150 points, which is an acceptable error for long-term positions, but it is killer for stops, which limit losses of intraday traders. Roughly speaking, the market "flies" during the NFP release because it is relatively easy to move the price at this time. And not because all traders of the world are panic selling/buying currencies. What Should You Do If Nonfarm Payrolls Are On The Calendar Today? There's only one 100% profitable way to trade the nonfarm payrolls! So how do we trade them? YOU DON'T. Yeah, that's right. If you see the NFP coming out today, then: - When trading intraday, close all positions half an hour before the news comes out - When trading long term, remember that the average price movement is 50-60 pips and the maximum is 150-200 pips. This should be taken into account, it is possible to change the stop loss - Remember that after an average of 6 hours the price often returns to the same level as before the news An interesting point: if you study many strategies, you will see that on bigger timeframes (H4, D1), news carrying changes can serve as a trigger. The market plays back the data in a "second wave", after the volatility calms down, market makers will start accumulating positions on the flat movement. The tactic is called "step" at the end of fluctuations in a narrow channel there is a strong impulse and directional trend, actively shifting the markets to new price levels. Conclusion Let's summarize the rules of 100% profitable strategy of trading on Nonfarm Payrolls. Half an hour to an hour before a major news release, simply clsoe all positions. Even if there is a small loss, it is probably better to close them. Two hours after the Nonfarm Payrolls release you can trade again in a normal mode. But since it is already Friday and evening, there is no sense to trade. So, an hour or half an hour before the nonfarm close all positions and go to rest.
Education
by Lingrid
1
HOW TO TRADE THE EURJPYToday we will talk about how to trade EURJPY; one of the most volatile, but also the most popular cross-currency pairs on the forex market. Quite a large percentage of profitable traders include it in their trading arsenal. We will tell you about the differences of this pair, which is sometimes called "the beast". THE ECONOMIES OF JAPAN AND THE EUROZONE Japan has the 3rd largest GDP, behind only China and the USA. The country is a producer and exporter of automobiles and high technology and is therefore very sensitive to energy prices. The central bank, the Bank of Japan, is a publicly traded company with 45% of shares owned by private and institutional shareholders. Interest rates are interspersed between negative and very low, ranging from -0.1% to 0.1%, which makes borrowing in yen extremely popular. The government has traditionally struggled with a high yen and low inflation rates to make Japanese exports more competitive. Earlier it was achieved through so-called currency interventions, and many traders had an opportunity to earn good money by anticipating the moment of the next sales by the Japanese Central Bank, but today the increase in inflation is achieved through stimulus programs - purchases of long-term government bonds and other financial assets by the Central Bank. The Euro is the official currency of the Eurozone, which consists of 27 EU member. Between them, these 27 countries of the Union form a single market with an economy that accounts for 14% of the world's output in 2021, making it the third largest economy in terms of nominal GDP, the largest exporter and the largest importer of goods and services. The main governing bank, the European Central Bank, regulates the monetary policy of the eurozone's constituent countries, maintaining overall price stability. In the long term, the ECB's policy pursues similar goals to the Bank of Japan of growing the economy through stimulus programs. GLOBAL TREND There has been an uptrend since the beginning of 2020. This is when the Eurozone consumer price index went into negative territory (from 0.3% at the beginning of 2020 to -0.3% by the end of 2020), due to the aftermath of the pandemic. No significant recovery has followed since then, and the situation was only exacerbated by the escalation of Eurosceptic sentiment in certain countries of the Union, which ultimately led to Brexit. At a greater distance EURUSD shows that this was not always the case, and the strongest uptrend in the post-crisis 2012 is proof of that, followed by a decline. And if we consider EURJPY, we should assume that the uptrend will continue in the coming time, which means that when trading on daily charts, the advantage remains for the upward signals. Of course, the situation may change, but based on the currently available data and the dynamics of recent years, the global trend indicates an upward trend. EURJPY VOLATILITY The average daily volatility of EURJPY is approximately 88 pips. The most volatile days are Wednesday and Thursday. The highest intraday volatility is observed at the American session and at the European and Pacific sessions. But it should be noted that there is no such a strong dependence on the sessions as for EUR and GBP, and therefore activity can be expected at any time of the day. CORRELATIONS The most stable correlation is observed with USDJPY on the 4-hour charts. Therefore, if you have detected some signal on this pair that has not yet played out on EURJPY, it may be worth getting ready to enter a position. USDJPY is well correlated with the Japanese stock market, namely the Nikkei 225 index. And accordingly, EURJPY will have similar correlations with the Nikkei 225 due to its close correlation with USDJPY, which is observed below: ECONOMIC CALENDAR When working with the economic calendar, it is important to follow the news related to the European currency and Japan, as well as the US dollar, paying attention to the most volatile ones, which are marked with three red bars. Speaking about the news background, it will also be important to note that cross pairs, such as EURJPY or GBPJPY, react more smoothly to USD news, as they are less popular among traders and investors who prefer to take risks during such hours on EURUSD or, say, USDCAD trading. There are noticeably fewer spikes. TRADING EURJPY The pair is universal and is perfect for both scalpers and trend traders both on higher timeframes and lower timeframes. But reasoning from the point of view of practical popularity, let's say that intraday trading certainly prevails over trading on daily charts. Strong trends are perfectly visible on daily charts, which opens up acceptable conditions for long-term trading. On 4 hourly and even 1 hourly timeframes you can easily observe steady trends with pullbacks. In addition, due to the relatively higher volatility of the pair compared to the same EURUSD, and with exactly the same characteristic sharp movements, EURJPY trends are more clean and prolonged. It is worth considering that for this pair you may also need to increase the stop loss because of the spikes, where on low timeframes it is simply necessary to put it farther away, otherwise there are risks that they will be knocked out. Breakout strategies also work well on the same strategies of consolidation exit, allowing to take good profits. Boxes (consolidations) are visible to the naked eye, but even here it is worth setting the indicators properly so that they take into account these candle wicks. TO SUMMARIZE • The EURJPY pair trades perfectly and universally both intraday and on daily timeframes. • It is worth taking into account spikes and tails, which can easily knock out your stop loss. And therefore, calculate the stop loss with the appropriate correction for higher volatility. • The same candlestick wicks can be used for your benefit by opening opposite small-target positions after long wicks. • Breakout strategies work well, in particular, bull flag and bear flag patterns. • More clearly defined trends than classic pairs such as EURUSD. • There are correlations with USDJPY, as well as the Nikkei 225 stock market.
Education
by DeGRAM
1
DXY - US Dollar Index. Everything You Need to Know Hey traders, I share my analysis, signals and forecasts on Dollar Index occasionally. Quite often I receive questions from you asking me to explain what exactly that index means and why it is so important. Dollar Index (DXY) is a measure of the value of the United States Dollar against a weighted basket of major currencies. This basket consists of 6 following currencies: 🇪🇺Euro (EUR) - 57.6% share 🇯🇵Japanese yen (JPY) - 13.6% share 🇬🇧Pound sterling (GBP) - 11.9% share 🇨🇦Canadian dollar (CAD) - 9.1% share 🇸🇪Swedish krona (SEK) - 4.2% share 🇨🇭Swiss franc (CHF) - 3.6% share The selection of the following basket of currencies and their weight is determined by the significance of a trading partnership between the countries. The index value is calculated with the formula: USDX = 50.14348112 × EURUSD ^ -0.576 × USDJPY ^ 0.136 × GBPUSD ^ -0.119 × USDCAD ^ 0.091 × USDSEK ^ 0.042 × USDCHF ^ 0.036 Take a look at a correlation coefficient between Dollar Index and EURUSD, most of the time it is close to -1. It implies a perfect negative relationship between two instruments. While a correlation between Dollar Index and USDCHF is not that tight due to limited value of Swiss Franc in a calculation of the index. The index was launched in 1973 and had an initial value of 100. When the U.S.D is gaining strength against the above-mentioned currencies, the index is growing, while its weakness against them leads to a decline of the index value. To conclude, the Dollar Index reflects a fair value of the Dollar and its dominance in global markets. Its analysis may help to make more accurate predictions of the future direction of the dollar related instruments. Do you analyze DXY?
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
1
🐱‍🐉 The Magnificent, One and Only Million Million OpportunityAs we approach the end of 2023, we are just a short time away from the 1st anniversary of the AI research company ChatGPT's chatbot being launched on November 30, 2022. This publication, although dedicated to a single company - Microsoft Corporation - is educational in nature, and is a representation of a letter to shareholders - 2023 by Satya Nadella, Chairman and CEO of Microsoft Corporation NASDAQ:MSFT - the second company in the world after Apple in terms of market capitalization. I hope that each of you will be able to master it, look back, and realize what a rapidly changing world we all live in now. Enjoy! October 16, 2023 Dear shareholders, colleagues, customers, and partners: We are living through a time of historic challenge and opportunity. As I write this, the world faces ongoing economic, social, and geopolitical volatility. At the same time, we have entered a new age of AI that will fundamentally transform productivity for every individual, organization, and industry on earth, and help us address some of our most pressing challenges. This next generation of AI will reshape every software category and every business, including our own. Forty-eight years after its founding, Microsoft remains a consequential company because time and time again—from PC/Server, to Web/Internet, to Cloud/Mobile—we have adapted to technological paradigm shifts. Today, we are doing so once again, as we lead this new era. Amid this transformation, our mission to empower every person and every organization on the planet to achieve more remains constant. As a company, we believe we can be the democratizing force for this new generation of technology and the opportunity it will help unlock for every country, community, and individual, while mitigating its risks. Here are just a few examples of how we are already doing this: • Leading electronic health records vendor Epic is addressing some of the biggest challenges facing the healthcare industry today—including physician burnout—by deploying a wide range of copilot solutions built on Azure OpenAI Service and Dragon Ambient eXperience Copilot. • Mercado Libre is reducing the time its developers spend writing code by more than 50 percent with GitHub Copilot, as the company works to democratize e-commerce across Latin America. •Mercedes-Benz is making its in-car voice assistant more intuitive for hundreds of thousands of drivers using ChatGPT via the Azure OpenAI Service. • Lumen Technologies is helping its employees be more productive, enabling them to focus on higher value-added activities, by deploying Microsoft 365 Copilot. • Nonprofit The Contingent is matching foster families with children in need using Dynamics 365, Power BI, and Azure, with an eye on using AI to amplify its work across the US. • And, Taiwan’s Ministry of Education has built an online platform to help elementary and high school students learn English using Azure AI. To build on this progress, we remain convicted on three things: First, we will maintain our lead as the top commercial cloud while innovating in consumer categories, from gaming to professional social networks. Second, because we know that maximum enterprise value gets created during platform shifts like this one, we will invest to accelerate our lead in AI by infusing this technology across every layer of the tech stack. And, finally, we will continue to drive operating leverage, aligning our cost structure with our revenue growth. As we make progress on these priorities, we delivered strong results in fiscal year 2023, including a record $211 billion in revenue and over $88 billion in operating income. A NEW ERA OF AI There are two breakthroughs coming together to define this new era of AI. • The first is the most universal interface: natural language. The long arc of computing has, in many ways, been shaped by the pursuit of increasingly intuitive human-computer interfaces—keyboards, mice, touch screens. We believe we have now arrived at the next big step forward—natural language—and will quickly go beyond, to see, hear, interpret, and make sense of our intent and the world around us. • The second is the emergence of a powerful new reasoning engine. For years, we’ve digitized daily life, places, and things and organized them into databases. But in a world rich with data, what has been most scarce is our ability to reason over it. This generation of AI helps us interact with data in powerful new ways—from completing or summarizing text, to detecting anomalies and recognizing images—to help us identify patterns and surface insights faster than ever. Together, these two breakthroughs will unlock massive new opportunity. And, in fact, just last month we announced our vision for Copilot, an everyday AI companion. We are building Copilot into all our most used products and experiences and allowing people to summon its power as a standalone app as well. Just like you boot up an OS to access applications or use a browser to visit websites today, our belief is that you will invoke a Copilot to do all those activities and more: to shop, to code, to analyze, to learn, to create. As a company, any time we approach a transition like this, we do so responsibly. We believe AI should be as empowering across communities as it is powerful, and we’re committed to ensuring it is responsibly built and designed, with safety in mind from the outset. OUR OPPORTUNITY Every customer solution area and every layer of our tech stack will be reimagined for the AI era. And that’s exactly what we’ve already begun to do: Infrastructure Four years ago, we first invested in our AI supercomputer, with a goal of building the best cloud for training and inference. Today, it’s being used by our partner OpenAI to power its best-in-class foundation models and services, including one of the fastest-growing consumer apps ever—ChatGPT. NVIDIA, as well as leading AI startups like Adept and Inflection, is also using our infrastructure to build its own breakthrough models. More broadly, organizations continue to choose our ubiquitous computing fabric—from cloud to edge—to run their mission-critical applications. We continued to see more cloud migrations to Azure this past fiscal year, as it remains early when it comes to the long-term cloud opportunity. And we also continue to lead in hybrid computing with Azure Arc, which now has 18,000 customers. Data and AI Every AI app starts with data, and having a comprehensive data and analytics platform is more important than ever. Our Intelligent Data Platform brings together operational databases, analytics, and governance so organizations can spend more time creating value and less time integrating their data estate. We also introduced Microsoft Fabric this year, which unifies compute, storage, and governance with a disruptive business model. With Azure AI, we are making foundation models available as platforms to our customers. We offer the best selection of industry-leading frontier and open models. In January, we made the Azure OpenAI Service broadly available, bringing together advanced models, including ChatGPT and GPT-4, with the enterprise capabilities of Azure. More than 11,000 organizations across industries are already using it for advanced scenarios like content and code generation. Meta chose us this summer as its preferred cloud to commercialize its Llama family of models. And, with Azure AI Studio, we provide a full lifecycle toolchain customers can use to ground these models on their own data, create prompt workflows, and help ensure they are deployed and used safely. Digital and app innovation GitHub Copilot is fundamentally transforming developer productivity, helping developers complete coding tasks 55 percent faster. More than 27,000 organizations have chosen GitHub Copilot for Business, and to date more than 1 million people have used GitHub Copilot to code faster. We also announced our vision for the future of software development with GitHub Copilot X, which will bring the power of AI throughout the entire software development lifecycle. All up, GitHub surpassed $1 billion in annual recurring revenue for the first time this fiscal year. We’re also applying AI across our low-code/no-code toolchain to help domain experts across an organization automate workflows, create apps and webpages, build virtual agents, or analyze data, using just natural language with copilots in Power Platform. More than 63,000 organizations have used AI-powered capabilities in Power Platform to date. Business applications We are bringing the next generation of AI to employees across every job function and every line of business with Dynamics 365 Copilot, which works across CRM and ERP systems to reduce burdensome tasks like manual data entry, content generation, and notetaking. In fact, our own support agents are using Copilot in Dynamics 365 Customer Service to resolve more cases faster and without having to call on peers to help. With our Supply Chain Platform, we’re helping customers apply AI to predict and mitigate disruptions. And, with our new Microsoft Sales Copilot, sellers can infuse their customer interactions with data from CRM systems—including both Salesforce and Dynamics—to close more deals. All up, Dynamics surpassed $5 billion in revenue over the past fiscal year, with our customer experience, service, and finance and supply chain businesses each surpassing $1 billion in annual sales. Industry Across industries, we are rapidly becoming the partner of choice for any organization looking to generate real value from AI. In healthcare, for example, we introduced the world’s first fully automated clinical documentation application, DAX Copilot. The application helps physicians reduce documentation time by half, freeing them to spend more time face to face with patients. And Epic will integrate it directly into its electronic health records system. And, in retail, we introduced new tools to help companies manage their day-to-day operations and digitize their physical stores. Modern work We are rapidly evolving Microsoft 365 into an AI-first platform that enables every individual to amplify their creativity and productivity, with both our established applications like Office and Teams, as well as new apps like Designer, Stream, and Loop. Microsoft 365 is designed for today’s digitally connected, distributed workforce. This year, we also introduced a new pillar of customer value with Microsoft 365 Copilot, which combines next-generation AI with business data in the Microsoft Graph and Microsoft 365 applications to help people be more productive and unleash their creativity at work. Just last month, I was excited to announce that we will make Microsoft 365 Copilot generally available to our commercial customers later this year. We continue to build momentum in Microsoft Teams across collaboration, chat, meetings, and calls. We introduced a new version of Teams that delivers up to two times faster performance, while using 50 percent less memory. We also introduced Teams Premium to meet enterprise demand for AI-powered features like intelligent meeting recaps. All up, Teams usage surpassed 300 million monthly active users this year. With Microsoft Viva, we have created a new category for employee experience. Copilot in Viva offers leaders a new way to build high-performance teams by prioritizing both productivity and employee engagement. This year, Viva surpassed 35 million monthly active users. Security As the rate and pace of cyberthreats continue to accelerate, security is a top priority for every organization. Our comprehensive, AI-powered solutions give defenders the advantage. With Security Copilot, we’re combining large language models with a domain-specific model informed by our threat intelligence and 65 trillion daily security signals, to transform every aspect of security operations center productivity. All up, more than 1 million organizations now count on our comprehensive, AI-powered solutions to protect their digital estates, and our security business surpassed $20 billion in annual revenue, as we help protect customers across clouds and endpoint platforms. Search, advertising, and news We are reshaping daily search and web habits with our new Bing and Microsoft Edge browser, which brings together search, browsing, chat, and AI into one unified experience to deliver better search, more complete answers, a new chat experience, and the ability to generate content. We think of these tools as an AI copilot for the web. We are also bringing these breakthrough capabilities to businesses, with Bing Chat Enterprise, which offers commercial data protection, providing an easy on-ramp for any organization looking to get the benefit of next-generation AI today. Although it’s early in our journey, Bing users engaged in more than 1 billion chats and created more than 750 million images over the past year as they apply these new tools to get things done. And Edge has taken share for nine consecutive quarters. More broadly, we continue to expand our opportunity in advertising. This year, Netflix chose us as its exclusive technology and sales partner for its first ad-supported subscription offering, a validation of the differentiated value we provide to any publisher looking for a flexible partner to build and innovate with them. LinkedIn The excitement around AI is creating new opportunities across every function—from marketing, sales, service, and finance, to software development and security. And LinkedIn is increasingly where people are going to learn, discuss, and uplevel their skills. We are using AI to help our members and customers connect to opportunities and tap into the experiences of experts on the platform. In fact, our AI-powered articles are already the fastest-growing traffic driver to the network. All up, LinkedIn’s revenue surpassed $15 billion for the first time this fiscal year, a testament to how mission critical the platform has become to help more than 950 million members connect, learn, sell, and get hired. Gaming In gaming, we are rapidly executing on our ambition to be the first choice for people to play great games whenever, wherever, and however they want. With Xbox Game Pass, we are redefining how games are distributed, played, and viewed. Content is the flywheel behind the service’s growth, and our pipeline has never been stronger. It was especially energizing to release Starfield this fall to broad acclaim, with more than 10 million players in the first month post-launch alone. Earlier this month, we were thrilled to close our acquisition of Activision Blizzard, and we look forward to sharing more in the coming months about how, together , we will bring the joy of gaming to more people around the world. Devices and creativity Finally, we’re turning Windows into a powerful new AI canvas with Copilot, which rolled out as part of a Windows 11 update last month. It uniquely incorporates the context and intelligence of the web, your work data, and what you are doing in the moment on your PC to provide better assistance, while keeping your privacy and security at the forefront. Overall, the number of devices running Windows 11 more than doubled in the past year. And we are also transforming how Windows is experienced and managed with Azure Virtual Desktop and Windows 365, which together surpassed $1 billion in annual revenue for the first time. OUR RESPONSIBILITY As we pursue our opportunity, we are also working to ensure technology helps us solve problems—not create new ones. To do this, we focus on four enduring commitments that are central to our mission and that take on even greater importance in this new era. For us, these commitments are more than just words. They’re a guide to help us make decisions across everything we do—as we design and develop products, shape business processes and policies, help our customers thrive, build partnerships, and more —always asking ourselves critical questions to ensure our actions are aligned with them. How can we expand opportunity? First, we believe access to economic growth and opportunity should reach every person, organization, community, and country. And although AI can serve as a catalyst for opportunity and growth, we must first ensure everyone has access to the technologies, data, and skills they need to benefit. To achieve this, we are focused on getting technology into the hands of nonprofits, social entrepreneurs, and other civil society organizations to help them digitally transform, so they can help address some of society’s biggest challenges. This year, we provided nonprofits with over $3.8 billion in discounted and donated technology. Nearly 325,000 nonprofits used our cloud. And to help them tap the potential of AI, we’re building new AI capabilities for fundraising, marketing, and program delivery. AI will displace some jobs, but it will also create new ones. That’s why we aim to train and certify 10 million people by 2025 with the skills for jobs and livelihoods in an increasingly digital economy. Since July 2020, we’ve helped 8.5 million people, including 2.7 million this year. We’ve also focused on skilling women and underrepresented communities in cybersecurity, working across 28 countries and with nearly 400 US community colleges to scale our efforts. Finally, to help people learn more about AI, we launched the first online Professional Certificate on Generative AI in partnership with LinkedIn Learning, created AI tools for educators, and held our first AI Community Learning event in the US. These events will be replicated around the world and localized in 10 languages over the next year. We also partnered to launch a Generative AI Skills Grant Challenge to explore how nonprofit, social enterprise, and research or academic institutions can empower the workforce to use this new generation of AI. How can we earn trust? To create positive impact with technology, people need to be able to trust the technologies they use and the companies behind them. For us, earning trust spans the responsible use of AI, protecting privacy, and advancing digital safety and cybersecurity. Our commitment to responsible AI is not new. Since 2017, we’ve worked to develop our responsible AI practice, recognizing that trust is never given but earned through action. We have translated our AI principles into a core set of implementation processes, as well as tools, training, and practices to support compliance. But internal programs aren’t enough. We also enable our customers and partners to develop and deploy AI safely, including through our AI customer commitments and services like Azure AI Studio, with its content safety tooling and access to our Responsible AI dashboard. Building AI responsibly requires that we work with other industry leaders, civil society, and governments to advocate for AI regulations and governance globally. This year, we released our Governing AI Blueprint, which outlines concrete legal and policy recommendations for AI guardrails. We are signatories to the eight voluntary commitments developed with the US White House, and proud of the six additional commitments we’ve made to further strengthen and operationalize the principles of safety, security, and trust. The era of AI heightens the importance of cybersecurity, and we deepened our work across the private and public sectors to improve cyber-resilience. We’ve continued to support Ukraine in defending critical infrastructure, detecting and disrupting cyberattacks and cyberinfluence operations, and providing intelligence related to these attacks. Our Microsoft Threat Analysis Center team produced more than 500 intelligence reports to help keep customers and the public informed. And we published our third annual Microsoft Digital Defense Report, sharing our learnings and security recommendations. We also remain committed to creating safe experiences online and protecting customers from illegal and harmful content and conduct, while respecting human rights. We supported the Christchurch Call Initiative on Algorithmic Outcomes to address terrorist and violent and extremist content online. And through the World Economic Forum’s Global Coalition for Digital Safety, we co-led the development of new global principles for digital safety. Protecting customers’ privacy and giving them control of their data is more important than ever. We’ve begun our phased rollout of the EU Data Boundary, supporting our commercial and public sector customers’ need for data sovereignty. And each month, more than 3 million people exercise their data protection rights through our privacy dashboard, making meaningful choices about how their data is used. How can we protect fundamental rights? In an increasingly digital world, we have a responsibility to promote and protect people’s fundamental rights and address the challenges technology creates. For us, this means upholding responsible business practices, expanding connectivity and accessibility, advancing fair and inclusive societies, and empowering communities. In 2023, we worked diligently to anticipate harmful uses of our technology and put guardrails on the use of technologies that are consequential to people’s lives or legal status, create risk of harm, or threaten human rights. We will continue to assess the impact of our technologies, engage our stakeholders, and model and adopt responsible practices and respect for human rights—including across our global supply chain. Today, our lives are more connected than ever. Access to education, employment, healthcare, and other critical services is increasingly dependent on technology. That’s why we’ve expanded our commitment to bring access to affordable high-speed internet to a quarter of a billion people around the world, including 100 million people in Africa, by the end of 2025. Since 2017, we’ve helped bring internet access to 63 million people, a key first step to ensuring communities will have access to AI and other digital technologies. This year, we also continued working toward our five-year commitment to bridge the disability divide with a focus on helping close the accessibility knowledge gap. Seven hundred and fifty-thousand learners enriched their understanding of disability and accessibility in partnership with LinkedIn Learning, Teach Access, and the Microsoft disability community. In addition, we’re stepping up efforts to combat online disinformation through new media content provenance technologies—enabling users to verify if an image or video was generated by AI. We continued our efforts to promote racial equity across Microsoft, our ecosystem, and our communities, including our work to advance justice reform through data-driven insights. And we provided support in response to eight humanitarian disasters, including committing $540 million of support to those who have been impacted by the War in Ukraine. Finally, recognizing AI’s potential to advance human rights and humanitarian action, we worked on several AI for Humanitarian Action projects. Together with our partners, we’re building the capabilities to identify at-risk communities, estimate seasonal hunger, predict malnutrition, and assist in disease identification. How can we advance sustainability? Climate change is the defining issue of our generation, and addressing it requires swift, collective action and technological innovation. We are committed to meeting our own goals while enabling others to do the same. That means taking responsibility for our operational footprint and accelerating progress through technology. We continue to see extreme weather impacting communities globally. To meet the urgent need, this must be a decade of innovation and decisive action—for Microsoft, our customers, and the world. In our latest Environmental Sustainability Report, we shared our progress toward our 2030 sustainability targets across carbon, water, waste, and ecosystems. In 2022, our overall carbon emissions declined by 0.5 percent while our business grew. Addressing scope 3 emissions, which account for the vast majority of our emissions, is arguably our ultimate challenge—one we’ll continue to tackle through our supply chain, policy advances, and industry-wide knowledge-sharing. We’ve provided just under 1 million people with access to clean water and sanitation, one of five pillars on our path to becoming water positive. And in our pursuit to be zero waste, we achieved a reuse and recycle rate of 82 percent for all our cloud hardware and diverted over 12,000 metric tons of solid operational waste from landfills and incinerators. We also continue to take responsibility for the impacts of our direct operations on Earth’s ecosystems. We’ve contracted to protect 17,268 acres of land, over 50 percent more than the land we use to operate. Of that, 12,270 acres—the equivalent of approximately 7,000 soccer fields—were designated as permanently protected. Technology is a powerful lever to help us avoid the most severe impacts of climate change. That’s why we’re accelerating our investment in more efficient datacenters, clean energy, enhancements to the Microsoft Cloud for Sustainability and Planetary Computer, and green software practices. To date, through our Climate Innovation Fund, we’ve allocated more than $700 million to a global portfolio of 50+ investments spanning sustainable solutions in energy, industrial, and natural systems. Finally, we believe AI can be a powerful accelerant in addressing the climate crisis. We expanded our AI for Good Lab in Egypt and Kenya to improve climate resilience for the continent. And, together with our partners, we launched Global Renewables Watch, a first-of-its-kind living atlas that aims to map and measure utility-scale solar and wind installations, allowing users to evaluate progress toward a clean energy transition. Although this new era promises great opportunity, it demands even greater responsibility from companies like ours. As we pursue our four commitments, we focus on transparency—providing clear reporting on how we run our business and how we work with customers and partners. Our annual Impact Summary shares more about our progress and learnings this year, and our Reports Hub provides detailed reports on our environmental data, political activities, workforce demographics, human rights work, and more. OUR CULTURE There’s never been a more important time to live our culture. The way we work and the speed at which we work are changing. In an economy where yesterday’s exceptional is today’s expected, all of us at Microsoft will need to embrace a growth mindset and, more importantly, confront our fixed mindsets as our culture evolves. It will take everyday courage to reformulate what innovation, business models, and sales motions look like in this new era. As a high-performance organization, we aspire to help our employees maximize their economic opportunity, while simultaneously helping them learn and grow professionally and connect their own passion and purpose with their everyday work and the company’s mission. To be successful, we need to be grounded in what our customers and the world need. We need to innovate and collaborate as One Microsoft. And we need to actively seek diversity and embrace inclusion to best serve our customers and create a culture where everyone can do their best work. To empower the world, we need to represent the world. To that end, we remain focused on increasing representation and strengthening our culture of inclusion. Even as we navigated challenges this year, our company continued to be the most globally diverse it’s ever been. Giving also remains core to our culture. This year, more than 105,000 employees gave $242 million (including company match) to over 35,000 nonprofits in 116 countries. And our employees volunteered over 930,000 hours to causes they care about. I am deeply grateful to our employees for their commitment to the company and their communities, and how they are living our mission and culture every day in a changing company and world. ** In closing, this is Microsoft’s moment. We have an incredible opportunity to use this new era of AI to deliver meaningful benefits for every person and every organization on the planet. On New Year’s Day, I saw a tweet from Andrej Karpathy, Tesla’s former director of AI who now works at OpenAI, about how GitHub Copilot was writing about 80 percent of his code, with 80 percent accuracy. Two days later, I saw a stunning example of work we’ve done with the government of India’s Ministry of Electronics and IT, which is applying an AI model so farmers in rural areas can interact with government resources in their native languages. Think about that: A foundation model that was developed on the West Coast of the United States is already transforming the lives of both elite developers and rural farmers on the other side of the globe. We’ve not seen this speed of diffusion and breadth of impact in the tech industry before. As a company, this is our moment to show up and responsibly build solutions that drive economic growth and benefit every community, country, industry, and person. If we do it well, the world will do well, and Microsoft will do well too. I’ve never been more confident that we will deliver on this promise together in the days, months, and years to come. Satya Nadella Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Thanks for reading. I hope the publication was useful and interesting for you. @Pandorra 😎
NASDAQ:MSFTEducation
by PandorraResearch
Advanced Forex Trading Strategy M15The trading strategy under examination is tailored for the M15 timeframe in the forex market, focusing on identifying supply and demand zones to make well-informed trading decisions. Let's delve into the key steps to successfully implement this strategy. Step 1: M15 Chart Analysis Position yourself on an M15 timeframe chart to gain a more detailed view of the market. This shorter time frame allows for capturing swift movements and identifying potential trading opportunities. Step 2: Identification of Supply and Demand Zones Utilize technical analysis tools such as supports, resistances, and volume indicators to clearly pinpoint supply and demand zones. Demand areas represent points where price is expected to rise, while supply zones indicate potential downward reversal points. Step 3: Confirmation of Demand Zone Breakout Wait for the breakout of a demand zone, accompanied by a bounce. This confirms the strength of the movement and suggests a potential change in the price direction. Step 4: Waiting for Price Bounce Above the Broken Zone After the demand zone breakout, observe price behavior and wait for it to return above the same zone. This confirms the effectiveness of the breakout and suggests a potential entry opportunity. Step 5: Identification of Supply Zone Once the price has surpassed the demand zone, identify a possible supply zone. This is the level where price is expected to encounter resistance. Step 6: Market Entry and Goal Planning Enter the market when the price reaches the identified supply zone, aiming to capture the downward movement. Set the target corresponding to the minimum that led to the last uptrend, intending to capitalize on the potential downward movement. Conclusions: This advanced forex trading strategy on the M15 timeframe is based on analyzing supply and demand dynamics. Always remember to manage risk carefully and adapt the strategy to evolving market conditions.
Education
by EdgeTradingJourney
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