There is no bottom in the stock without a bottom in the bond
My Dashboard on Tradingview
www.tradingview.com
where I am monitoring the entire bond market in the world with my magma indicator, country by country.
When investing for the long term I first look the bond market before leaping in the stocks.
There are few simple and important rules to follow in this market.
1. Higher Bond yields = Lower Bond Prices = Bottom in the bond market is more bottom
2. Short-mid term bond yields is closing to long-term yields (example 2-Years yield = 10-Years yield) = This means flattening = not good for long-term investment, stay alerting for your paper profits.
3. Short-mid term bond yields is greater than long-term yields (example 2-Years yield is greater than 10-Years yield) = This means inversion = not good, imminent fear of recession (remember: stock market does not perform well during recessions)
4. Short-mid-term bond yields is less than long-term yields (example 2-Years yield is less than 10-Years yield and going lower) = That's fine, economics sounds good for long-term investments
What I see now: United States, Canada, Brazil are countries with the most prolongated inversion areas (highlighted with red circles in the figure above).
5. More prolongated inversion = not good, even more.
Flattening areas (yellow circles) have to be carefully monitored.
Few examples currently are showing good news (green circles) : Japan long-term and mid-term yield curves are fine and in the good direction. Same as in Australia.
Trading Tools
What is margin trading & How does it work?
Margin trading is when you pay only a certain percentage, or margin, of your investment cost, while borrowing the rest of the money you need from your broker.
Margin trading allows you to profit from the price fluctuations of assets that otherwise you wouldn’t be able to afford. Note that trading on margin can improve gains, but increases the risk and size of any potential losses.
But what is the margin in trading? There are two types of margins traders should be aware of. The money you need to open a position is your required margin. It’s defined by the amount of leverage you are using, which is represented in a leverage ratio.
There are also limits on keeping a margin trade running, which is based on your overall maintenance margin – the amount that needs to be covered by equity (overall account value).
Brokers require you to cover your margin by equity to mitigate risk. If you don’t have enough money to cover potential losses, you may be put on a margin call, where brokers would ask you to top up your account or close your loss-making trades. If your trading position continues to worsen you will face a margin closeout.
Hey traders, let me know what subject do you want to dive in in the next post?
BIGGEST TRADING MISTAKES YOU MUST KNOW
While some trading mistakes are unavoidable, it is important that you don’t make a habit of them and learn from both successful and unsuccessful positions. With that in mind, these are the 10 most common trading mistakes.
1 - Not researching the markets properly
Some traders will open or close a position on a gut feeling, or because they have heard a tip.
It is important to back these feelings or tips up with evidence and market research before committing to opening or closing a position.
2 - Trading without a plan
3 - Over-reliance on indicators
4 - Failing to cut losses
The temptation to let losing trades run in the hope that the market turns can be a grave error, and failing to cut losses can wipe out any profits a trader may have made elsewhere.
5 - Overexposing a position
6 - Overdiversifying a portfolio too quickly
While diversifying a trading portfolio can act as a hedge in case one asset’s value declines, it can be unwise to open too many positions in a short amount of time.
7 - Not understanding leverage
8 - Not understanding the risk-reward ratio
The risk-to-reward ratio is something every trader should take into consideration, as it helps them decide whether the end profit is worth the possible risk of losing capital.
9 - Overconfidence after a profit
10 - Letting emotions impair decision-making
Emotional trading is not smart trading. Emotions, such as excitement after a good day or despair after a bad day, could cloud decision-making and lead traders to deviate from their plan.
Every trader makes mistakes, and the examples covered in this article don’t need to be the end of your trading. However, they should be taken as opportunities to learn what works and what doesn’t work for you.
The path to becoming a good trader
When a beginner learns to trade, they progress through stages as they develop their mindset.
The most commonly used learning model for trading is an adaptation of the 3 stages of competence model.
1. Unprofitable trader
This is the first stage that a trader goes through and they do not know that they have a lack of knowledge. In this stage, beginner traders will take their first few steps by downloading a platform, opening an account and begin to place trades.
However, they are influenced by emotion – usually lured by the thought of making a great deal of money in a short period of time.
Either one of two things are likely to happen for traders in this stage:
The trades turns against the trader immediately. They simply lack the experience to deal with the market environment.
New traders take large risks without a basic knowledge of risk management and they wipe out all previous profits and more.
2. Boom and bust trader
Boom and bust traders will realise that successful trading comes down to the psychology of the trader and their approach to the markets.
A basic understanding that you will never be able to predict what will happen in the markets, starts to form. You begin to realise that making money is based on a series of trades that incorporate winners and losers, and that it takes discipline to stick to a system, cut losses short and let profits run.
A trader in this stage will begin to enter and exit the markets whenever their system tells them to, without judgement and despite the emotion they are feeling.
3. Profitable trader
A trader is said to have reached the stage of unconscious competence once they have traded with so much practice that they are able to trade in an almost automatic mindset.
A disciplined approach requires very little effort and has become second nature.
At what stage are you at the moment?
JS-Masterclass: Sell Alerts / RulesJS-Masterclass #10: Sell Alerts / Sell Rules
In recent tutorials, we have covered different techniques and ways to identify low-risk entry points. We have talked about the perfect buy points and several entry patterns.
In this tutorial, we will discuss general rules for selling once we have entered a trade. Also, we will present a comprehensive list of warning signals which suggest to close a trade long before hitting the Stop-Loss.
1. Selling into strength
By far the best option for a swing-trader is to sell into strength. You will feel like a hero once you have mastered this technique!
Here are some guidelines for that:
a) Sell if you have achieved a gain which is a multiple of your risk. The minimum gain before selling into strength should be 2x the risk. Consider selling half and moving stop on remaining position to breakeven.
b) If your profit is more than your average gain and a multiple of your risk (generally 2-3x) consider trailing a stop or selling half and moving your stop up. You could also “backstop” your average gain or an amount you want to lock in.
c) The stock is extended and opens up on a gap; consider selling at least half or trail a tight stop.
2. Selling into weakness
a) The price hits pre-determined stop-loss – OUT… NO QUESTIONS! You will have to stick to this discipline before you will become a successful trader.
b) The stock closes below 20-day moving average, below your purchase price soon after a breakout from volatility contraction pattern; reduce shares when you have 3-4 days of lower lows without supportive action on day 3-4. This increases the odds of a failure.
c) Heavy selling with full retracement soon after low volume breakout. This is a bad signal – get out of the trade.
d) Key reversal on heavy volume when stock is extended – sell at least half.
3. Sell Alerts
Stocks will flash warning signals long before a big decline. Here are some to watch for:
a) Accelerated rate of advance (parabolic “blow-off” price action)
b) After extended move stock moves up 25-50% in 1-3 weeks (12 of 15 days up over 3 weeks)
c) Largest up day since beginning of move (look for reversal or churning over the next 1-4 trading days). This could mean that the stock is in its final leg up and almost exhausted.
d) Largest daily price spread since advance started
e) Largest weekly price spread since beginning of advance
f) Exhaustion gaps (after stock is extended – usually 2nd or 3rd gap )
g) New high on low volume which sometimes indicates the beginning of a phase 3
h) Heavy volume with little price progress (stalling action)
i) Drop below the 50-day moving average line on the heaviest daily volume since beginning of move
j) Largest one-day decline since beginning of move
k) Largest weekly decline on huge volume
l) Downwards action on large volume
Perfect Buy Points: The Power PlayJS-Masterclass #9:
Perfect Buy Points – The Power Play
In the recent tutorials we have some patterns leading to a Perfect Buy Point (Volatility Contraction Patterns, IPO’s – The Primary base).
In this tutorial we will cover the so called Power-Play.
Characteristics of a Power-Play:
1. An explosive price move on huge volume; the stock
shoots up 100% or more in less than 8 weeks.
2. The rapid price run-up could be induced by a major news
development such as an FDA drug approval, litigation
resolution, a new product or service announcement or
even an earnings report, or on no news at all.
3. The stock price then moves sideways in a relatively tight
range not correcting more than 20% over a period of 3-
6 weeks (some emerge after only 10 or 12 days).
Here are some examples:
Be that traderA structure is necessary to actively improve all the skills required to master trading.
Start by rating yourself on a scale of 1 to 100 for all these skills to come up with "stats" as you would have in a videogame.
Next step is to take the same approach as you would to level up in a said video game. Focus on the grind and to complete a couple of "levels" per day. You will see that with this concept in mind you will attain higher stats that you would want for your "perfect build".
Cheers to many pips.
How to Blow Your Account | Step-By-Step Guide 💰 to 🪙
Hey traders,
In this article, we will discuss the set of actions, habits and beliefs that will blow your account.
1. Trades are based on emotional decisions
Behind each trading position must be a reason.
The entry reason of a professional trader is based on a very strict and objective conditions, while an unprofitable trader follows emotions and intuition.
2. Stop loss placement is for losers
A lot of traders consistently neglect placing a stop loss. Remember, just one single trade without that may blow your entire account.
3. Set unrealistic goals
There is a common misconception concerning trading: that the equity size is not proportional to potential gains. Such a reasoning leads to various false conclusions.
One who is trading with 100$ account and expecting to buy lambo, will inevitably blow the account.
4. No time for trade journaling
Why to even bother yourself with trade journaling?! It is just waste of time.
Remember, that trading journal is one of that best tools for learning. Constantly assessing your past decisions, you identify the flaws of your strategy and fix that, increasing your future gains.
5. Trading plan is for fools
I know a lot of traders who trade without a plan.
Remember, that the trading plan is your roadmap. Without that, it is impossible to become a consistently profitable trader.
6. Blindly following other's view
While you are learning how to trade, your task is to learn the reasoning behind the trades of the pro's in the industry. Following them without reflections, you are not learning and, moreover, you are becoming dependent. Losing, you put the responsibility on their shoulders instead of yours.
Such an approach will lead you to failure.
Learn to become responsible in your trading decisions and execute your own analysis before you follow any other trader.
7. Who needs economic data
As we discussed many times, fundamentals are the driver of the market. Neglecting the trends and global situation, not studying the news, you will unavoidably be fooled by the market.
8. Indicators are the magic pill
I know a lot of traders, who spend thousands of dollars looking for a magic indicator - the instrument that will make tons of money.
The fact is that indicators are just a tool in your toolbox. Its goal is to provide some minor additional clues to your analysis.
Overestimating the importance of indicators, you will most likely blow your account.
9. Not investing in education
Many traders are spending their money not on education but on fancy tools, signal services, robots and indicators.
However, the fact is that only knowledge gives freedom, only skills can make you independent.
10. Back testing is pointless
Trying different strategies, many traders intentionally skip the back testing part.
Remember, that back testing is the most proven way to verify the efficiency of a strategy, allowing you to save time and money simultaneously.
11. Paper trading does not make any sense
Same thing with paper trading. For some reason, the majority of the traders skip demo trading, quickly opening a real account.
However, the fact is that demo trading is the best, risk-free tool for learning how the market works.
Unfortunately, these 11 fallacies and misconceptions are very common. Analyze your trading and make sure that you are not making these classic mistakes.
What would you add in that list?
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
My trading setupWas recently speaking with a newbie trader and he was showing me his setup. Highlighting his specialized keyboard and mouse, together with a 49 inch widescreen monitor, and some fancy CPU. All up it cost him more than $5,000.
This led me to think, is a hi-tech premium setup necessary for successful (Profitable) trading? Should you prioritize funds towards a trading setup or into your trading account?
My trading analysis process:
1) identifying broad-based trends based on fundamental analysis
2) aligning the fundamental bias with the technical setup
3) calculation of risk management
This is why I have my trading setup like this, which I've found to be the most effective for me:
- Vertical screen on the side to read long-form news and articles.
- Horizon screen at eye level for my trading platform.
- Laptop screen used to write up my analysis
How do you have your trading setup?
Share a picture in the comments
Special Entry Patterns - IPO'sJS-TechTrading Masterclass : Special Entry Patterns - IPO's
In a previous tutorial, I have explained the general characteristics of a perfect buy point. In this tutorial, we will look at IPO's (Initial Public Offerings) and discuss how to identify primary bases.
IPO's coming out of primary bases can make huge price moves - let's discuss how to find the next monster mover, similar to what stocks like Amazon could achieve after their Initial Public Offering phase.
Perfect Entry Points – IPO’s – The Primary Base
When it comes to investing in IPO stocks, new issues don't play by the usual rules.
Companies making initial public offerings draw a lot of investor attention. That often results in unusual and brand-new chart patterns. Volatility can rise as investors size up demand for the new stock. Yet there are opportunities in these cases, if you can spot the correct characteristics amid the price-and-volume action.
The framework of a good IPO base is simple. The decline from peak to low usually doesn't top 20%, but the most volatile markets have produced declines of up to 50%. The length is often less than five weeks and can be as short as seven days. These two factors alone make IPO bases wayward cousins compared with proper bases, such as the cup with handle and flat base, which need at least five to seven weeks of work.
In an IPO base, the pattern typically starts within 25 days of the stock's first day of trading. Know the important similarities with regular bases. For example, the buy point is drawn by taking the prior high and adding 10 cents. The price gain on the breakout should be strong.
There are ways to evaluate these blind spots, however. Important factors include seeing a shallow correction within the base during normal market conditions, a large increase in price and a close near session highs on the breakout day, and heavy volume on the breakout day and week.
Also, the stock should generally form the base above its IPO price.
Example - ServiceNow (NOW)
The business software company, went public in June 2012, at 18 a share and has built its primary base during the period from the initial offering to April 2013 when the stock developed its first perfect buy point.
How To Get What You Want Out of Your TradingHello traders,
All the below are based on my preferences, I don't give any financial recommendations and I have nothing to sell you with this article.
I'm sharing content because I see a lot of traders being/becoming broke and I don't want you to be one of them.
The today’s lessons coming from my experience is me sharing how I got what I wanted out of life
Whether, it’s a 6 packs, money, success etc…
I) Is writing down your goals even useful?
A keystone habit that served me very well in retrospect, when there is something that I want that I do not have, so I have a desire which means I’ve made a contract with myself to be unhappy until I get what I want.
So there is this thing external that I wanted - think of 6 packs, money, success, ...
Writing down goals means nothing and I know it’s contrary to common belief or practice - which states people writing down their goals are more likely to succeed.
Sure having a direction is more likely to achieve them than not having a direction right
I don’t disagree with that.
Here is an interesting statement that may hit you: winners and losers have the same goals
Successful traders and unsuccessful traders have the same goal namely increasing how much money they’re making.
Then, having goals cannot be the main driver of success
We have to dive deeper to understand what are the behaviours making our goals being achieved.
II) Mimic the behaviours of very successful traders
We all already know the activities that are going to generate the result we want.
- Maybe, it’s not trading what you want to trade but trading what’s moving
Yes, I’m thinking of crypto traders scalping ranges while recent events brought an insane intraday volatility with futures, commodities and even FX pairs
- Maybe, it’s trading with a demo account, tiny baby trades for months, and scaling up progressively the position size.
Self-mastery is a skill that MUST be acquired - going outside of your lane too quick INEVITABLY results in a catastrophe
- Maybe, it’s not trading from our phone but from our computer only....
We tend to miss some obvious data on the charts, screeners when trading from a small screen
- Maybe, it’s also not trading when we’re tired or sick or frustrated
Trading is hard - trading without a body/mind in a decent shape is...... not smart....
I bet every reader knows how to lose fat right? Burning more calories than we eat...
Even fat people know that
....
They know what kind of activities they should do to lose fat but they don’t do it.
The same goes with unsuccessful traders.
The vast majority of traders know what to do to become successful but don’t want to do it because it’s too time-consuming and boring right?
A new trader, looking to get rich quickly will be poor quickly
III) A simple hack
I’m often asking myself the question, what would a person who does this type of thing do in this instance?
Your identity is a weighted voting system where you can votes based on your activities and what type of person you want to become.
What Paul Tudor Jones or Jesse Livermore or Ed Seykota did to be successful?
A simple google search gave me a list of common behaviours/habits shared from the most successful traders.
Instead of writing a 50 points checklist of all the activities I need to do to achieve my goals, I wrote down a list of behaviours commonly shared between extremely successful traders and investors.
If you’re a millionaire, ask yourself, what would a billionaire do?
If you’re not a millionaire yet, ask yourself what would a millionaire do?
Another great question to ask ourselves: what would someone 10 times smarter than me would do in that situation?
It’s a different way of saying, what would someone 10 times richer than me would do
Word it in whatever way resonates with you.
I wrote those questions on a post-it and sticked it on my wall above my computer - it’s a constant reminder for me to reflect and think before I take a trade.
And that type of person, when you’re asking yourself the question “what would that person do in that situation?” is who you will eventually become as you continue to cast votes that reinforce the stories that we tell ourselves about who we are.
Those are the things that create long-lasting changes
.
This hack isn’t about telling ourselves affirmations such as:
- I’m a successful trader
- I’m rich
- I’m a high value man/woman
Just saying them doesn’t make them true
.
What makes them becoming true is creating some level of evidence through behaviours/actions for an extended period of time.
It all starts with activity, with doing.
And for a new trader, doing is….taking as many trades as possible while testing as many strategies as possible, one by one, until one sticks with his/her risk appetite, capital, lifestyle etc… + accumulating a tons of small activities or habits leading to success.
I’ll write next Monday an education post listing the behaviours I “copy/pasted” for years until they became a part of “ME” and how they fast-tracked my way to multiply my net worth.
I'll keep bringing a few articles like this every week because it helps me clarifying my thoughts AND giving back to the community makes me feel good about myself somehow :)
Thank you for reading
Dave
How To (NOT) Fail As A Trader? (Part 2)Hello traders,
All the below are based on my preferences, I don't give any financial recommendations and I have nothing to sell you with this article.
I'm sharing content because I see a lot of traders being/becoming broke and I don't want you to be one of them.
Today, I want to share the second part of the frameworks I’ve used across the past 10 years.
I’ve learned them from the legend himself Charlie Munger, cofounder of Berkshire Hathaway, what NOT TO DO to stay far away from being unsuccessful and poor.
You'll find the first part shared yesterday below
I) Overspend your income
Once I got to a certain level of net worth, I still didn’t spend a lot.
Actually, I never overspent my trading income, I just keep stockpiling as much as possible
I don’t buy fancy things, I don’t get a table when I go to the nightclub
.
I barely spend 3% of what I earn every month - makes me feel so free because it’s more money that I’d ever need.
And …. That’s how wealth is accumulated.
I don’t even live frugally… I go to the restaurant every day….. I buy stuff that I need and I like….
But … if you want to fail, definitively overspend your income.
II) Learn only from your own mistakes
To fail, don’t learn from the mistakes of others, don’t learn from the success of other people.
There are tons of free ressources to learn the basics of psychology, trading, self-mastery
.
There are also a few very reliable and trustworthy traders selling courses and sharing how they became successful.
Sharing their trading method, their insights, etc...
Knowing how to identify them, and listening to them is key.
To stay poor, don’t learn from other successful traders.
III) Quit Early
If you want to fail and be miserable, you definitively want to quit soon, quit early.
Because, no matter of who you are, you’re going to fail many times.
Remember that my win-rate is between 50/60% :)
Half of my trades are necessary failures for me to deserve the winners.
If you quit trading too early, that’s a guarantee you’d be miserable for a long-time.
Don’t put yourself in a situation where you blown up your trading capital and can’t trade anymore...forcing you to quit…
Stay in the game, with tiny baby trades and take many of them for a VERY EXTENDED period of time…
That’s the ONLY WAY to learn overtime
IV) Negative Visualisation
Take something very negative, and imagine it happening a thousand times in a row.
How would you feel at the 1000th time it happens?
Exactly…you’d feel nothing
If you feel that way after the 1000th time… then you might as well feel that way after the 1st time…
This mindset framework has been so POWERFUL for me.
That’s exactly why you MUST trade a lot and have a lot of losers in your “skeleton closet”
Being insensitive to losses is a skill that can be acquired only after hundreds/thousands of failed trades
.
And trust me, I have hundreds of those losers every month…
They’re not affecting me anymore… they’re a necessary “evil”
V) Expect only the best outcome
If you want to fail at trading, definitively follow traders only posting the winning outcomes/trades.
Definitively never think of setting a stop-loss, or an hard-exit
.
Definitively don’t think about your RISK
VI) Expect the worst
Bouncing back from the previous point, sharing how I approach trading.
If you’re a beginner in your trading journey, expect every day that you’re going to lose some of your money.
And that is going to be your base reality
If I happen to make gains, be profitable then…. That’s just a bonus…. That’s serendipitous … it’s just a happy coincidence.
But I expect that at every trading session I’m going to lose.
This mindset framework has been extremely beneficial for me.
If I come trading with that mindset, then I’m not surprised nor affected when I’m losing some capital and I feel that way because it’s in alignments with the expectations I have in my mind.
Thank you for reading
I'll keep bringing a few articles like this every week because it helps me clarifying my thoughts AND giving back to the community makes me feel good about myself somehow :)
Dave
JS-Masterclass #7: Trade AnalysisJS-Masterclass #7: Confirmations & Violations
In previous tutorials, we have covered the stock selection process and the identification of low risk, high probability entry point following constructive consolidation patterns.
Now that we are in the trade, the question comes up what to look for. What makes the price action healthy so that you rather stay in the trade and what are the alarm signals to look for?
The Founder of the Berger Funds and Stock Market Legend Bill Berger said:
“I buy tennis balls and sell eggs.”
What does that mean?
‘Tennis-Balls’ are characterized as follows: after a breakout under high volume out of a constructive consolidation pattern, most stock will pull back after a couple of days. This pullback for ‘Tennis-Balls’ normally happens under low volume and is followed by a strong price increase under heavy volume. Just like a tennis ball immediately pooping back after a drop to the ground.
‘Eggs’ are characterized as follows: The above mentioned pullback after a breakout happens under high volume and the stock is not able to recover from this pullback. Just like an egg which drops down to the ground.
What you do want to see after you have entered a trade:
• The trade is immediately profitable
• Good volume characteristics (high volume on up-days and low volume on down days)
• High volume rallies – low volume pullbacks
• Follow through buying (2-3 days or more) – institutional vs. retail
• More up days than down days
• More good closes than bad closes
• Look for ‘Tennis Ball Action’ after a ‘Natural Reaction’. A ‘Natural Reaction’ can be considered as a pullback under low volume following a breakout.
What you do not want to see after you have entered a trade:
• Squat directly after breakout
• Low volume out of a base - high volume back in
• 3 or 4 lower lows w/o supportive action
• More down days than up days
• More bad closes than good closes
• A close below the 20d MA on high volume
• A close below the 50d MA on high volume
• Full retracement of a good size gain
• Wide and volatile price action
• Outside day: high is higher than high of the previous day but closes below the low if the previous day. This happens on higher volume versus the previous day
How To (NOT) Fail As A Trader? (Part 1)Hello traders,
All the below are based on my preferences, I don't give any financial recommendations and I have nothing to sell you with this article.
I'm sharing content because I see a lot of traders being/becoming broke and I don't want you to be one of them.
Today, I want to share some thinking frameworks I’ve used across the past 10 years.
I’ve learned them from the legend himself Charlie Munger, cofounder of Berkshire Hathaway, what NOT TO DO to stay far away from being unsuccessful and poor.
I) Don’t ingest chemicals
Don’t ingest chemicals to alert your state
If I wanted to be really poor or unsuccessful in life, what would I do?
Well, I’d definitively get addicted to chemicals.
Sounds so logical and obvious right?
Though, many of us use them on regular basis to alter their mood because they can’t cope with how hard trading can be sometimes.
I can’t think of anyone who ever told me “oh man, now my life is so much better since I’m on drugs and I drink”
It’s not a judgment in any way; that’s what Charlie Munger says about successful people - they don’t ingest chemicals.
II) Envy
Every single year, I outperform my previous year YoY% PnL return and have grown my net worth.
Though, I always find many guys over performing me in trading every single year.
And for me, that hit me because I’m so innately competitive… that I suffer from comparison all the time.
I even got to the weirdest point thinking “I feel the more money I make, the poorer I feel”
Yes you read that right… and I know many of extremely successful traders feel that way.
And it’s totally true because what ends up happening is our measuring stick changes.
III) Measuring Stick
I remember when I was very young, my measuring stick was a MacDonald’s meal.
It was just, how many McDonald’s meals this amount of money equates to.
When I got to a 6 figures net worth, that was probably the wealthiest I have ever felt because I had proportional to what my measuring stick was at that time…100K euros was so many McDonald’s meals, so many of those units.
Now, my measuring stick or unit is bigger is monetary value (and significance).
That stick changes....
Someone is always doing better.
I think it’s so much more about not thinking about them because the way they roll the dice and play the game has no effects on us - it’s only an imaginary way to make ourselves suffer.
If you want to suffer, be envious of people.
IV) Resent people
Another way to feel miserable is to resent people.
- Do you resent some guys for your trading failures?
- Do you blame the FED? Do you blame Blackrock?
- Do you blame the whales for YOU to not performing with trading the way you should?
Charlie Munger wrote that every time he feels the need to resent people, he’d write their name on a piece of paper and put that paper in a drawer, and periodically open it up and realise how life had dealt with those people without him having to do anything.
It’s one of those long-term mindedness that like most people live in karmic balance.
Simply, people who do bad things, eventually that catches up to them and life is becoming worse for them.
And someone doing bad things is already dealing with the suffering of being who they are.
Why am I saying this?
All your corrupt politicians, bankers, hedge funds, market makers, brokers… at some point, the karma (or the SEC :p) will make their life miserable or at least very problematic.
Again, repeating myself, don’t resent other people for your losses because this will make you feel really miserable.
V) Be unreliable
To feel miserable, say you’re going to do something and don’t do it.
Say you’re going to be somewhere and be late.
Be flaky, make tons of mistakes and don’t learn from them.
That’s why I’m a big believer of having a trading buddy because it forces me to be reliable towards myself and him.
For me, that’s my father.
We both show up on time, trading from the same room, we both trades and discuss in real-time of setups we identified.
If you’re reliable, it’s very difficult to be unsuccessful.
Even if the previous days, you lost money, keep showing up.
If you don’t feel like trading because your emotions are not in check… trade with your demo account or with smaller position sizes until you’ll bring your self-confidence back up.
My win-rate is maybe around 50/60% - which means half of the trades I take…. fail…
Though it was a tough pill to swallow, I worked on making at least 3 times more on average with my winners compared to my losers.
Meaning for every 1 dollar per trade with a negative PnL, I earn 3 dollars per trade with a positive PnL.
I’ll post the Part II of this article tomorrow .
Thank you for reading
I'll keep bringing a few articles like this every week because it helps me clarifying my thoughts AND giving back to the community makes me feel good about myself somehow :)
Dave
Moving drawing toolsTiny video to show one of the most recent (2022/09) news regarding the Tradingview design: the possibility to move all the graphic elements we have added with a mathematical operation. I find this function useful especially following stock splits, but it is also very useful during very aggressive trends to move selected items that would overlap the bars.
Link to TV blog:
www.tradingview.com
The 3 TYPES OF CHART YOU MUST KNOW | Trading Basics
Hey traders,
In this educational video, we will discuss 3 different chart types:
range bar chart,
line chart
candlestick chart.
I will explain to you the difference between them and will teach you why they are important.
❤️Please, support this video with like and comment!❤️
The reason you are not successful...Hello traders,
All the below are based on my preferences, I don't give any financial recommendations and I have nothing to sell you with this article.
I'm sharing content because I see a lot of traders being/becoming broke and I don't want you to be one of them.
Yesterday, I posted an article about how to NOT overtrade when you're emotions are running high:
Now, I'd like to flip the other side of that coin showing how "overtrading" can be beneficial for beginners to achieve their desired outcome. 🧵
I - Alex Hormozi
I discovered this OUTCOME equation thanks to Alex Hormozi on Youtube.
He helped me defining clearly with words how to get to the outcome I want.
Props to him for being such a wonderful business/sales/marketing/thinker.
II - The OUTCOME equation
The equation is defined as: VOLUME x SKILL x TIME = OUTCOME
VOLUME = number of repetitions
SKILL = quality of each repetition
TIME = total duration of practicing those repetitions
Based in foundational principales
The more we do.... the better we get
The better we get.... the more we do
The longer we do it....the better we get
The better we get....the longer we do it
The longer we do it...the more what we did compounds on itself (profit, reducing losses, etc)
In this way, each of the three feed the others, but it all starts with doing .
It's a virtuous wonderful cycle: imgur.com
It works for any skill you want to acquire but let's focus on trading for now.
After years of trading, any of my trade has a higher quality than my trades from my early days.
Why?
Because I spent an enormous amount of time trading intraday first with a demo account, and then with a live account trading with micro-lots/micro-pips.
Once I got profitable CONSISTENTLY for a few weeks, I allowed myself to increase my lot size slightly.
I repeated this cycle made of mini weekly cycles for more than 5 years until I'll reach a capital allowing me to trade the indices futures.
III - Why 97% of traders fail at trading
The majority of traders lose due to a lack of experience which can only come with taking a lot of trades during an extended period of time.
There is no other way....
Forget about getting rich quickly, forget about your 100% automated bots - if such wonders existed, no one in their right mind would sell them and they'd invest everything they and their family own in those magical cashflow generating machines instead...
New traders think only a few weeks of practicing is required to learn about themselves and about the markets.
Your favorite influencers won't tell you this: trading is very hard, most lose all their money, lose their family, lose their home, lose themselves in the process.
The only hedge you have is your WORK.... you can't cheat the GAME.... you have to take a lot of trades for an extended period of time.....
And then, at some point, you'll be able to capture more opportunity per trade, to lose less whenever your Stop Loss is hit, to not get frustrated when the price is leaving without you
All those skills cannot be acquired in weeks ....
One cannot develop character traits required to be a good trader in a short timeframe - talking about patience, discipline and motivated.
Motivated too because it's hard to keep one's dopamine level high after some consecutive days of losing
Don't cheat the game, it's impossible
If you're not profitable yet, forget about leverage please please please please.
How many times do you have to get margin called to understand that leverage wasn't invented for you to make money but to depart from it faster.
IV - True Effort
When learning a new skill at the beginning, everyone sucks.
I certainly sucked at it and you will too.
THAT IS FINE, THIS IS OKAY, THERE IS NOTHING WRONG
How could you not expect to suck at a skill you don't know yet.
What I'm saying is unpleasant because everyone wants to get rich quick (me included)
My only guarantee to YOU guys is that if you can afford to follow this process with a decent trading strategy and stay consistent, your gains are going to be tiny at the beginning and then PARABOLIC after some time.
As the desired OUTCOME is to become richer and/or live off your trading again, this is the ONLY way
It's IMPOSSIBLE to suck at trading after taking thousands and thousands of trades.
As it's impossible to suck at anything after months and months of constant practice and effort.
And you can learn with a DEMO account (risk-free) or with betting pennies per every trade using CFDs or other similar product.
If you want to learn how to play piano, if you follow some tutorials on Youtube every day and practice 2-3 hours a day for years, I guarantee you that you'll have an excellent playing level.
Stop being lazy, stop cheating the game, stop searching for the way to get rich quick.
Accept the magic pill doesn't exist BUT another way that no one is doing will allow you be DIRECTIONALLY RIGHT and eventually reaching your desired OUTCOME.
Conclusion
I wanted to post this content because this outcome equation is dear to my heart and changed my life for the better
I'm literally kicking ass because I outworked everyone I know
And now that I'm more skilled than them, I can put off my foot from the accelerator working less than them, making more $$ than them
Thank you for reading by dear followers
PS
To all those in the comments about to tell me they have a magical bot printing $$ for them and their community, I invite you to show me your track records and bank account statements and any proof I could believe you didn't use photoshop on to sugarcoat what the reality is...
The 12 Days of Effective Trading Learning
Hey traders,
In this article, we gathered for you 1 2-days intensive trading learning marathon.
We hope that it will help.
1 Day:
Practice placing support and resistance lines.
2 Day:
Perfect placing trend lines.
3 Day:
Study candlestick patterns.
4 Day:
Review chart patterns.
5 Day:
Practice placing fibonacci retracements.
6 Day:
Learn about moving average.
7 Day:
Master market structure.
8 Day:
Watch videos on momentum oscillators.
9 Day:
Learn about divergence.
10 Day:
Study risk managment.
11 Day:
Review fundamental literature.
12 Day:
Create a trading plan.
Let us know if such a marathon helped you in your journey.
PSYCHOLOGY OF A TRADER | TRADING BASICS
Market psychology is the idea that the movements of a market reflect (or are influenced by) the emotional state of its participants. It is one of the main topics of behavioral economics - an interdisciplinary field that investigates the various factors that precede economic decisions.
Many believe that emotions are the main driving force behind the shifts of financial markets. And that the overall fluctuating investor sentiment is what creates the so-called psychological market cycles.
So, the sentiment is made up of the individual views and feelings of all traders and investors within a financial market. Another way to look at it is as an average of the overall feeling of the market participants.
But, just as with any group, no single opinion is completely dominant. Based on market psychology theories, an asset's price tends to change constantly in response to the overall market sentiment - which is also dynamic. Otherwise, it would be much harder to make a successful trade.
In practice, when the market goes up, it is likely due to an improving attitude and confidence among the traders. A positive market sentiment causes demand to increase and supply to decrease. In turn, the increased demand may cause an even stronger attitude. Similarly, a strong downtrend tends to create a negative sentiment that reduces demand and increases the available supply.
Pine Editor Shortcuts Hotkeys (All Hidden Included)For Those who have not explored, Here is the list of All the shortcut keys available.
Very useful for Macros
'show settings menu' - "CONTROL - ," "command - ,
'go to next error' - "ALT - e" "F4"
'go to previous error' - "ALT - SHIFT - e" "SHIFT - F4"
'select all' - "CONTROL - a" "command - a"
'center selection' - "CONTROL - l"
'go to line' - "CONTROL - l" "command - l"
'fold' - "ALT - l |or| CONTROL - F1"
'unfold' - "ALT - SHIFT - l |or| CONTROL - SHIFT - F1"
'toggle fold widget' - "F2" "F2"
'toggle parent fold widget' - "ALT - F2" "ALT - F2"
'fold all' - "CONTROL - command - option-0"
'fold other' - "ALT - 0" "command - option-0"
'unfold all' - "ALT - SHIFT - 0" "command-option-SHIFT - 0"
'find next' - "CONTROL - k" "command - g"
'find previous' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - k" "command-SHIFT - g"
'selector find next' - "ALT - k" "CONTROL - g"
'selector find previous' - "ALT - SHIFT - k" "CONTROL - SHIFT - g"
'find' - "CONTROL - F" "command - f"
'overwrite' - "insert"
'select to start' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - home"
'go to start' - "CONTROL - home" "command - home |or| command-UP"
'select UP' - "SHIFT - UP" "SHIFT - UP |or| CONTROL - SHIFT - p"
'go lineup' - "UP" "UP |or| CONTROL - p"
'select to end' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - end"
'go to end' - "CONTROL - end" "command - end |or| command-DOWN"
'select DOWN' - "SHIFT - DOWN" "SHIFT - DOWN |or| CONTROL - SHIFT - n"
'go line DOWN' - "DOWN" "DOWN |or| CONTROL - n"
'select word LEFT' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - LEFT" "option-SHIFT - LEFT"
'go to word LEFT' - "CONTROL - LEFT" "option - LEFT"
'select to line start' - "ALT - SHIFT - LEFT"
'go to line start' - "ALT - LEFT |or| home"
'select LEFT' - "SHIFT - LEFT" "SHIFT - LEFT |or| CONTROL - SHIFT - b"
'go to LEFT' - "LEFT" "LEFT |or| CONTROL - b"
'select word RIGHT' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - RIGHT" "option-SHIFT - RIGHT"
'go to word RIGHT' - "CONTROL - RIGHT" "option - RIGHT"
'select to line end' - "ALT - SHIFT - RIGHT"
'go to line end' - "ALT - RIGHT |or| end"
'select RIGHT' - "SHIFT - RIGHT" "SHIFT - RIGHT"
'go to RIGHT' - "RIGHT" "RIGHT |or| CONTROL - F"
'select page DOWN' - "SHIFT - pagedown"
'page DOWN' - "option - pagedown"
'go to page DOWN' - "pagedown" "pagedown |or| CONTROL - v"
'select page UP' - "SHIFT - pageup"
'page UP' - "option - pageup"
'go to page UP' - "pageup"
'scroll UP' - "CONTROL - UP"
'scroll DOWN' - "CONTROL - DOWN"
'select line start' - "SHIFT - home"
'select line end' - "SHIFT - end"
'toggle recording' - "CONTROL - ALT - e" "command-option-e"
'replay macro' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - e" "command-SHIFT - e"
'jump to matching' - "CONTROL - p" "CONTROL - p"
'select to matching' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - p" "CONTROL - SHIFT - p"
'expand to matching' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - m" "CONTROL - SHIFT - m"
'remove line' - "CONTROL - d" "command-d"
'duplicate selection' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - d" "command-SHIFT - d"
'sort lines' - "CONTROL - ALT - s" "command-ALT - s"
'toggle comment' - "CONTROL - /" "command-/"
'toggle block comment' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - /" "command-SHIFT - /"
'modify number UP' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - UP" "ALT - SHIFT - UP"
'modify number DOWN' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - DOWN" "ALT - SHIFT - DOWN"
'replace' - "CONTROL - h" "command-option-f"
'undo' - "CONTROL - z" "command-z"
'redo' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - z |or| CONTROL - y"
'copy lines UP' - "ALT - SHIFT - UP" "command-option-UP"
'move lines UP' - "ALT - UP" "option - UP"
'copy lines DOWN' - "ALT - SHIFT - DOWN" "command-option-DOWN"
'move lines DOWN' - "ALT - DOWN" "option-DOWN"
'del' - "delete" "delete |or| CONTROL - d |or| SHIFT - delete"
'backspace' - "SHIFT - backspace |or| backspace"
'cut or delete' - "SHIFT - delete"
'remove to line start' - "ALT - backspace" "command-backspace"
'remove to line end' - "ALT - delete" "CONTROL - k |or| command-delete"
'remove to line start hard' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - backspace"
'remove to line end hard' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - delete"
'remove word LEFT' - "CONTROL - backspace"
'remove word RIGHT' - "CONTROL - delete" "ALT - delete"
'outdent' - "SHIFT - tab" "SHIFT - tab"
'indent' - "tab" "tab"
'block outdent' - "CONTROL - [" "CONTROL - ["
'block indent' - "CONTROL - ]" "CONTROL - ]"
'split line' - "CONTROL - o"
'transpose letters' - "ALT - SHIFT - x" "CONTROL - t"
'to uppercase' - "CONTROL - u" "CONTROL - u"
'to lowercase' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - u" "CONTROL - SHIFT - u"
'expand to line' - "CONTROL - SHIFT - l" "command-SHIFT - l"
My layout of correlations
I always monitor correlations before doing day trading or swing trading on more assets, at the same time.
Correlation is a measure that defines how different assets move in relation to one another. The more the correlation coefficient is, the more they are aligned closely.
My layout of correlations here.
US Dollar and SP500 as references at first row of each table. My list of tickets consists of several subsets: Indices, Commodities , Financials and Currencies.
My Layout is 1x5
Correlation Frame 1x1 --> Daily perspective (timeframe 4h, lenght for calculation of correlation = 6)
Correlation Frame 1x2 --> Weekly perspective (timeframe 4h, lenght for calculation of correlation = 30)
Correlation Frame 1x3 --> Monthly perspective (timeframe 1D, lenght for calculation of correlation = 20)
Correlation Frame 1x4 --> 2-Monthly perspective (timeframe 1D, lenght for calculation of correlation =40)
Correlation Frame 1x5 --> 3-Monthly perspective (timeframe 1D, lenght for calculation of correlation = 60)
You can find this indicator in Tradingview, Tab indicator & strategies , by typing gCorrelations
How to journal your trades?Hello traders,
There are TONS of journaling tools out there.
But 99% of them are missing this one feature that is CRITICAL to your success.
Here's how to journal your trades the RIGHT way: 🧵
Most journals go over statistics of your trading day
# of trades
P/L
Risk/Reward Ratio
These are important to measure, however...
There are a few elements that aren't shown in most journals
They are:
-Emotional Mistakes
-Strategy Iterations
Emotional Mistakes
Emotional mistakes are KEY to becoming a successful trader
It's typically the #1 reason traders fail
They don't have the discipline to follow their strategy
Some emotional mistakes are...
Taking too much size
Not getting out at stop
Felt greedy and didn't take profit
These are just a few of the examples that you've probably felt throughout your trading career
It is so important that you track these emotional mistakes... so you can fix them for the future
Strategy Iterations
You should be measuring what is and isn't working with your strategy
This will allow you to tweak your strategy to improve it
Seeing your P/L or the # of trades you took doesn't help you.
Seeing how you can increase your win rate or risk/reward WILL help you.
The whole point of journaling is to learn from your past trading and improve it.
If you aren't focusing on the real inputs that are costing you money...
then there's no point in journaling at all.
All the BEST
Daveatt
Big Bank Imbalance Strategy (Go With The Flow) Example on 1 hour EurChf Chart for Friday ( sell trade, but can do on buy trade too)… its Friday: Don't be greedy).
Note the following:
1) Big Banks selling (note large 1 hour candlesticks- on charts)- only people that can do that are big banks and/or institutions (not retail traders).
2) Two areas of sell imbalance (they must be filled with buy either today or in the near future). In all probable's, I would side with today and big banks are just selling to buy back later today - because the big banks do not want many imbalances when Forex is closed (and/or the weekend)
3) Look for a higher bullish LOW and higher CLOSE candlestick for your reason to enter into a long and/or setting up buy trade soon.
4) After the #3 above has happen (wait patiently)- why? because that candle happened at 3:00 a.m. and/or after Tokyo closed and before NY session opened.
London session does three more hours of accumulation 1 hour candles (see large bottom & top wicks- both buying and selling pressure)- so all big banks and institutions are happy with the current price at this moment.
5) When NY session opens, what happens? Big banks and institutions are buying (large candles)- your sign to by was actually the 1hour sell candlestick (red) before the large blue candlestick happened. Why? because the big banks and/or institutions are trying to tell you to sell, but you being smart did not fall for that one, right? You said above price action are two areas of sell imbalance that I except to be fill today, so I will plan to buy when that pa reverses and goes north and/or blue above that last red candlestick.
*On Chart related to its Friday & both scalpers and/or day traders should not be holding over the weekend. Why? because Forex is closed and when Forex starts back up- their could be small or large GAPS which take you out, which you have zero control over. Trading is 100% on you, your decisions only- control as much as you can- do not give your broker and/or big banks or institutions any more control then they already have in the Forex world.
If you are scalping and/or day trading these Big Bank imbalance strategy should be 1:1 or: 1:2 risk reward maximum. You can trade this of course buy or sell on pairs. You need to always use risk management. This trade would have seen you doing a 1:1 RR with 17 pip stop vs 17 pip target. Trading is not about pips that you make, but the risk that you take= PER TRADE.