When Continuing Claims for Unemployment Bottoms, S&P500 RalliesThe market is always worrying about various data series and the impact on the stock market. Today, this one was inspired by a Tweet by someone I follow on Twitter that I respect.
The point of this chart is to show you the batting average of "What Happens When The Unemployment Claims Bottoms Out"? Technically, we don't know this is the bottom yet, but you can see here that if the forecast is for the next 6 months (a useful time horizon) then the odds of an up market are not just 50% but up to 75% chance.
See for yourself and note that the market is more than just one statistic, particularly the Unemployment Claims. The market can be impacted by many variables, but certainly people working and not sitting around collecting insurance, would be a good sign for the economy overall.
Either way - my lesson for today is "Don't just take what anyone says for granted." Go research it for yourself here at Tradingview.com
Cheers,
Tim West
May 11, 2017 10:52AM EST
Trading Tools
#EDUCATION #Comparison tool #RRSThe comparison tool is perfect for me to workout confluence and divergences in the markets, Gold sold off after last nights FOMC and Randgold rose this morning after an update this morning. Now the correlation is back where it should be and without this tool I wouldn't be able to work it out!!
Just a post for new traders to read =) Worth a read, don't be lazy lol =D
Disclaimer: I do not benefit from any of these books or from amazon.com
-The Risk of Trading: Mastering the Most Important Element in Financial Speculation (Wiley Trading)
-Global Macro Trading: Profiting in a New World Economy (Bloomberg Financial)
-The Psychology of the Foreign Exchange Market (Wiley Trading)
-Day Trading Forex with S&R Zones - Forex Trading System (Rough editing on this book but its clear concise and straight to the point)
-Hedge Hogs: The Cowboy Traders Behind Wall Street's Largest Hedge Fund Disaster (just a good read on why you should never be a cowboy trader)
-The Tragedy of the European Union: Disintegration or Revival?
-A Three Dimensional Approach To Forex Trading - Anna Coulling
-Day Trading Forex with Price Patterns - Forex Trading System - Laurentiu Damir (another rough edit but clear and concise)
-Trade the Price Action - Forex Trading System - Laurentiu Damir(rough edit but clear / concise)
-Trade What You See: How To Profit from Pattern Recognition (Wiley Trading)
-Fibonacci Trading: How to Master the Time and Price Advantage
These are just some of my choices, but overall I tend to stick to Wiley Finance/Trading Series books and Bloomberg series books.
Also research trading risk management, Bloomberg / Wiley Series both have good reads on it, and on how to properly build / manage your own portfolio.
The site mentioned in the post that has a free course for FX trading is babypips.com/school
Non Charting Tools for Forex TradersI am listing the tools I use daily, during my trading schedule, when I trade the Forex market. I am using general descriptions in this list since I am not endorsing any particular paid service, or website.
Tradingview
A high quality charting platform with all the price charts and many powerful yet intuitive tools. Every single trade I take I chart it here first, marking exact entry, exit and stop loss levels. Some of my potential trades I publish, some I keep to myself. The forex chat is a great “tool” to share views on the market in real time and get other opinions to see if I missed anything.
Execution Platform
I see brokers as a necessary evil and use mine only to execute my trades. I don’t use its charting package, newsfeed, calendar, signals, expert advisors or anything like that. As soon as Tradingview will provide chart trading where we can select a broker of our choosing and execute our trades straight from the charts, this tool can be eliminated.
Economic Calendar
Even if you are a 100% technical trader and don’t take any news into account, at least you would know when major news events are happening (NFP, FOMC rate statement, etc) that could impact your trades, so you might want to stay out of the market. For traders who do take fundamentals into account, it provides you with the previous period and the expectation for the data to be released. It helps to build the picture for how events may move the markets. There are several to be found, find one that suits you.
Premium News Service
This is a feed of headlines that will inform you in real-time on what is happening in the markets. If a pair suddenly moves fifty pips, this news service will tell you why this is happening. The audio feed is the fastest so with urgent news you will not miss out. With un-planned news events this is essential. It’s a paid service and there are several on the market, I am not endorsing any in particular but am using one myself and I am always in the know.
Market Background News Sites
These are websites / financial blogs with markets news, background stories and editorial opinions that differ from the real time premium news services in that the articles are more research based and provide a deeper understanding into fundamental drivers behind the markets and how market players are positioning themselves. I usually read up on them once a day before I start trading. There are several good websites to be found.
Currency Correlation Overview
Pairs don’t move completely independent of each other. Trading highly correlated pairs simultaneously can increase your overall risk or eat your profits. Before entering a potential trade, I crosscheck the currency correlation of that pair with my already open trades (if any) and if its highly correlated (either positively or negatively) to one of them, I do not enter the trade. Since correlation differs per timeframe and changes over time, I use a real time online source.
Position Size Calculator
The difference in pips between entry and stop loss (pips at risk), your equity size and the trade risk you allow as a percentage are what you need to calculate the position size that does not exceed your risk tolerance. You can create a spreadsheet where you calculate this yourself for each trade, you can also find an online position size calculator and some brokers have this feature built into their interface. Regardless how you do it, this will be an essential tool.
Forex Cheat Sheets
I have created cheat sheets with overviews of all candlestick formations, basic and advanced price patterns, key Fibonacci ratios, etc. They help to quickly validate potential trading opportunities. Nowadays I hardly use them anymore, but I still have a hard copy on my desk just in case and they certainly helped me a lot as a beginning trader. I like the feeling that if I need to check a pattern, I have the information easily accessible at my fingertips.
Tutorial: Fib Extension ToolYou can use it for different things. my main use for it is to project targets based on impuls legs.
not always will price follow the AB=CD target. instead it often reverses before reaching point D.
This tool can help you identify alternative targets.
Technically speaking the shown example of usage isn't called a fib extension but a fib expansion.
you can get fib extensions if you put point A' exactly back to A.
You can find the tool in your drawing toolbar by clicking the third icon and selecting "Trend-Based Fib Extension".
When you click on a drawn fib extension a little options tootlbar will appear where you can customize your fib levels.
Commonly used levels for expansions / extensions are: 0.382 - 0.5 - 0.618 - 0.764 - 1 - 1.272 - 1.414 - 1.5 - 1.618 - 2
Keep in mind though, it is statistically proven that Fibonacci extensions work no better at predicting where price is going to turn than any other percentage.
It's more of a self-fulfilling prohecy than anything else.
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Fib Extension ToolYou can use it for different things. my main use for it is to project targets based on impuls legs. not always will an ABCD pattern have the AB=CD 1:1 ratio. CD will often be in a fib ratio to AB like indicated on the chart. using the tool you can find different levels quickly and even set your own custom level values.
You can find it in your drawing toolbar by clicking the third icon and selecting "Trend-Based Fib Extension"