Forex Portfolio Selection Using Currency Strength Index (CSI)Hello Traders,
Today, I’ll share my portfolio selection approach in forex trading. This method helps identify the best forex pairs to trade based on their relative strength.
The simplest and most effective strategy is to use the Currency Strength Index (CSI), combining the H4, Daily (D1), and Weekly (W1) cumulative strength. By analyzing this data, we can identify the strongest and weakest currencies at any given time.
Once we have this information, the next step is to pair the strongest currencies with the weakest. Here are today’s portfolio selections:
BUY Pairs: GBPUSD, GBPCAD, GBPNZD
SELL Pairs: USDJPY, CADJPY, NZDJPY, USDCHF, CADCHF, NZDCHF
The key benefits of this portfolio selection process are:
A focused view on the most profitable currency pairs
An objective approach to trading decisions
Clear direction on which way to trade (buy or sell)
Like, comment by letting me know what you think and follow me for more trading education.
Happy trading!
Trading Tools
What is Reward to Risk Ratio | Forex Trading Basics
Planning your every Forex trade, you should know in advance the profit that you are aiming to make and the maximum amount of money you are willing to lose.
In this educational article, we will discuss risk reward ratio - the tool that is used to compare your potentials losses and profits in Forex trading.
What is Reward to Risk Ratio
Let's start with an example. Imagine you see a good buying opportunity on EURUSD. You quickly identify a safe entry point, your take profit level and stop loss.
From that trade you are aiming to make 100 pips with a maximum allowable loss of 50 pips.
To calculate a reward to risk ratio for this trade, you simply should divide a potential gain by a potential loss:
R/R ratio = 100 / 50 = 2
In that particular example, reward to risk ratio equals 2 meaning that potential gain outperform a potential loss by 2.
Let's take another example.
This time, you decide to short USDJPY.
From a desirable entry point, you can get 75 pips rerward with a potential loss of 150 pips.
R/R ratio = 75 / 150 = 0.5
Reward to risk ratio for this trade is 75 divided by 150 or 0.5.
Such a ratio means that potential loss outperform a potential gain by 2.
Positive and Negative Reward to Risk Ratio
Risk to reward ratio can be positive or negative.
If the ratio is bigger than 1 it is considered to be positive meaning that a potential gain outperforms a potential loss.
R/R ratio > 1
If the ratio is less than 1 , it is called negative so that potential loss is bigger than potential risk.
R/R ratio < 1
On the left chart above, the reward for the trade is bigger than a risk.
Such a trade has positive reward to risk ratio.
On the right chart, the risk is bigger than a reward.
This trade has negative reward to risk ratio.
Why?
Knowing the average risk to reward ratio for your trades, you can objectively calculate the required win rate for keeping a positive trading performance.
With R/R ratio = 0.5
2 winning trades recover 1 losing trade.
You need at least 70% win rate to cover losses of your trading.
With R/R ratio = 1
1 winning trade, recover 1 losing trade.
You require at least 50% win rate to compensate your losses.
With R/R ratio = 2
1 winning trade recovers 2 losing trades.
You will need at least 35% win rate to cover losses of your trading.
In the example above, the trading setups have 0.5 reward to risk ratio. In such a case, 2 winning trades will be needed to win the money back for 1 losing trade.
Forex trading involves extremely high risk. Risk to reward ratio is a number one risk management tool for limiting your risks. Calculating that and knowing your win rate, you can objectively decide whether a trade that you are planning to take is worth taking.
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Coping Strategies for Dealing with Losing TradesIn trading, one of the greatest challenges isn't just the technical analysis, financial expertise, or market knowledge—it's psychology. Loss aversion, a well-known concept in behavioral economics, can distort decision-making and lead to poor trading outcomes. This psychological bias, where the pain of losses or being wrong weighs more heavily than the joy of equivalent gains, can lead traders to hold onto losing trades longer than necessary, refuse to cut losses or execute damage control, or even double down in an attempt to recover.
1️⃣ Understanding Loss Aversion as a Bias
The first step to overcoming loss aversion is recognizing it as a psychological bias. Loss aversion is the tendency to fear losses more than we value equivalent gains. Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky’s prospect theory demonstrated this powerful force, where losses impact our emotional state more than potential rewards. For traders, this means the agony of a $100 loss feels much worse than the thrill of a $100 gain.
I always remind myself that this bias isn't about market logic—it's about human emotion. Knowing that loss aversion clouds judgment helps me avoid irrational decisions, such as holding onto a bad trade with the hope of recovery. It’s not about ignoring the emotional side of trading but recognizing it as part of the process.
2️⃣ Set Pre-Defined Risk Limits
One of the most effective ways to handle loss aversion is through setting pre-defined risk limits. Before entering any trade, I always determine the maximum amount I’m willing to sustain in drawdown. By setting these boundaries in advance, it ensures that I don’t make emotional decisions once I’m in the heat of a trade.
Knowing the exact risk exposure before entering a position helps balance rational decision-making and prevents the emotional spiral of “hoping” the market will turn.
3️⃣ Reframe Losses as Learning Experiences
Reframing is a mental strategy that can turn loss aversion into an advantage. Instead of focusing purely on the financial loss, I always saw closing out of the money positions as learning opportunities. Each close provided valuable insight into my damage control strategy, market conditions, or my own psychology.
For example, when I went through a very rough damage control cycle early in my career, instead of simply being discouraged, I asked myself: What could I have done better? Was I trading against the market trend? Was I over trading? By reframing, I’m able to evaluate mistakes constructively rather than emotionally, making me a better trader in the long run.
4️⃣ Focus on Long-Term Performance, Not Single Trades
Loss aversion often arises when traders zoom in on individual trades rather than seeing their performance over time. The reality is that not every trade will be profitable when using stop losses, and accepting this fact is crucial. You should aim to focus on your long-term performance and overall risk management instead of dwelling on short-term losses.
For instance, I’ve had days when nothing seemed to go right, with nothing moving in my prefered direction. However, by taking a step back and reviewing my entire portfolio over a period of months, I was able to see a consistent upward trend, even with occasional lulls. This long-term view shifts my mindset from obsessing over individual positions to managing an overall edge-based winning strategy.
5️⃣ Use a Journaling Process to Document Emotional Reactions
Keeping a trading journal has been one of my most effective tools for managing the psychological challenges of trading, especially at the beiginning of my journey. In this journal, I didn't just record the technical details of each trade; I also document my emotions. Did I feel fear, anxiety, or frustration during the trade? Did I act out of emotion rather than analysis?
Reflecting on these emotional reactions helped me pinpoint when and how loss aversion influenced my decisions. Over time, I’ve been able to identify patterns, such as when I’m more prone to emotional decisions. Acknowledging these triggers helped me manage them more effectively, improving both my emotional regulation and trading performance.
6️⃣ Develop a “Letting Go” Mindset
One of the hardest lessons I’ve had to learn as a trader is how to let go of a bad trade. Loss aversion makes us want to “win” back what we lost, but in the world of trading, this mindset can lead to even more devastating losses. Instead of letting the emotional toll of the setback dictate my next move, I practiced the art of detachment.
One strategy I use is to treat each trade as an isolated event. Whether the outcome is positive or less desirable, it’s essential to accept it and move on without carrying the emotional baggage into the next trade. This doesn’t mean ignoring my losses or drawdown but instead recognizing them as part of the journey and not defining my success as a trader. Letting go allows me to maintain a clear head and stick to my trading plan without being swayed by emotions.
7️⃣ Diversify Your Portfolio to Spread Risk
A diversified portfolio is a great way to mitigate the emotional impact of loss aversion. By spreading investments across different asset classes—such as forex, commodities, and indices—I can minimize the potential for any single trade or market to ruin my portfolio.
For example, in the recent market turmoil, having exposure to multiple currencies and commodities helped balance drawdown in one area with gains in another. This diversification ensures that my overall risk exposure is lower, reducing the psychological pressure of individual losses. It allows me to approach each trade with a more objective mindset, as the stakes of any single position are less impactful on my overall financial well-being.
The psychology of loss aversion can be a significant hurdle for traders, but by employing these strategies, it’s possible to mitigate its effects and make better, more rational decisions. Losses and drawdown are part of trading, but how we respond to them is what separates successful traders from the rest.
How to send Alerts with screenshot from Tradingview to TelegramFor sending Alerts from Tradingview to Telegram i made 2 tutorial vidoes. There were alot of requests to make a video about sendign Alerts with screenshot of the chart . My friend Trendoscope also recommended to me to work on this feature , now i have made a video that does this task.
To use this method Amazon AWS lambda service is used , what lambda does is that it provides us with a service that only uses processing power of amazon servers when the application is running . Most of its services for 1 year after sign up and afterwards the services are very cheap.
If there is any questions i would be happy to answer them .
Emotional Intelligence in Trading: Developing Self-AwarenessIn trading, success is not just about having the right strategy or access to the best tools—it's also about mastering your emotions. Emotional intelligence (EI) plays a crucial role in trading performance, influencing decision-making, risk management, and overall resilience in the market. The ability to recognize, understand, and manage our emotions, as well as the emotions of others, can significantly enhance trading outcomes.
1️⃣ Understanding the Role of Emotions in Trading. Emotions like fear, greed, and overconfidence can lead to impulsive decisions, which often result in poor trading outcomes. Recognizing the influence of these emotions is the first step in managing them. For instance, fear can cause you to exit a position too early, missing out on potential gains, while greed can lead to holding onto a position for too long, resulting in losses. By developing emotional intelligence,you can better identify these emotional triggers and mitigate their impact on decision-making.
Example: During the 2008 financial crisis, many traders who allowed fear to dominate their decision-making process exited their positions at a loss, only to see the market recover later. Those with higher emotional intelligence were better equipped to manage their fear, allowing them to make more rational decisions.
2️⃣ The Importance of Self-Awareness in Trading. Self-awareness is the foundation of emotional intelligence. It involves being conscious of your emotions, strengths, weaknesses, and how these factors influence your trading decisions. By regularly reflecting on your emotional state and how it affects your trading, you can develop greater self-awareness, which can help in making more informed and objective decisions.
Practical Exercise: Keep a trading journal where you not only record your trades but also note your emotional state during each trade. Over time, patterns will emerge, allowing you to identify which emotions typically lead to poor decisions and which contribute to success.
3️⃣ Developing Emotional Regulation Skills. Once you are aware of your emotions, the next step is learning how to regulate them. Emotional regulation involves managing your emotional responses, especially in high-pressure situations, to ensure they don't negatively impact your trading. Techniques such as deep breathing, meditation, and cognitive reframing can help in maintaining composure during market volatility.
Historical Instance: In the 1990s, hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones famously used visualization techniques to regulate his emotions and maintain focus during market crashes, which contributed to his long-term success. I often recommend these techniques to my students.
4️⃣ The Role of Empathy in Trading. Empathy, the ability to understand and share the feelings of others, may seem less relevant to trading, but it plays a crucial role in market psychology. By understanding the emotional states of other market participants, you can better anticipate market movements. For example, recognizing widespread panic selling can provide opportunities to buy undervalued assets.
Case Study: During the COVID-19 pandemic, traders who empathized with the fear and uncertainty in the market were able to capitalize on the sharp declines by purchasing assets at a discount, leading to significant gains when the market rebounded.
5️⃣ Building Resilience Through Emotional Intelligence. Trading is inherently stressful, and setbacks are inevitable. Emotional intelligence helps traders build resilience, enabling them to recover quickly from losses and maintain a long-term perspective. Resilient traders are less likely to be discouraged by short-term failures and more likely to learn from their mistakes.
Practical Example: After experiencing a significant loss, instead of dwelling on it, a trader with high emotional intelligence might analyze what went wrong, adjust their strategy, and approach the next trade with renewed focus and confidence.
6️⃣ Integrating Emotional Intelligence with Technical Analysis. While technical analysis provides the data-driven foundation for trading decisions, emotional intelligence adds a layer of psychological insight. By combining these two approaches, you can avoid the common pitfall of over-reliance on charts and signals. For instance, a technically sound trade setup might be ignored if emotional cues suggest that market sentiment is unusually euphoric or fearful.
Strategy: Before executing a trade based on technical analysis, take a moment to assess your emotional state and the broader market sentiment. Ask yourself if your decision is influenced by overconfidence or fear, and adjust accordingly.
7️⃣ The Long-Term Benefits of Emotional Intelligence in Trading. Developing emotional intelligence is not a one-time effort but an ongoing process that yields long-term benefits. Traders who invest in their emotional growth tend to experience more consistent performance, lower stress levels, and greater overall satisfaction with their trading careers. They are better equipped to handle the psychological challenges of trading, such as uncertainty, volatility, and the pressure to perform.
Emotional intelligence is a critical yet often overlooked component of successful trading. By developing self-awareness, emotional regulation, empathy, and resilience, you can enhance your decision-making process and achieve more consistent results. The ability to manage one's emotions can make the difference between a good trader and a great one.
Never Trade Without Stop Loss!
Hey traders,
Talking to many struggling traders from different parts of the world, I realized that the majority constantly makes the same mistake : they do not set a stop loss .
Asking for the reason why they do that, the common answer is that
these traders consider the manual position closing to be safer, implying that if the market goes in the opposite direction, they will be able to much better track the exact moment to cut loss.
In this article, we will discuss why it is crucially important to set a stop loss and why it is the number one element of your trading position.
What is Stop Loss?
Let's discuss what is a stop loss . By a stop loss , we mean a certain price level where we close our trading position in loss. In comparison to a manual closing, the stop loss (preferably) should be set at the exact moment when the order is executed.
On the chart above, I have an active selling position on Gold.
My entry level is 2372, my stop loss is 2381.
It means that if the price goes up and reaches 2381 level, the position will automatically close in a loss.
Why Do You Need a Stop Loss?
Stop loss allows us limiting the risks in case of unfavorable movements .
On the chart above, I have illustrated 2 similar negative scenarios : 1 with a stop loss being placed and one without on USDJPY.
In the example on the left, stop loss helped to prevent the excessive risk , cutting the loss at the beginning of a bearish wave.
With the manual closing, however, traders usually hold the negative positions much longer , praying for a reversal.
Holding a losing trade, emotions intervene. Greed and fear usually spoil the reasoning, causing irrational decisions .
Following such a strategy, the total loss of the second scenario is 6 times bigger than the total loss with a placed stop loss order.
Always Set Stop Loss!
Stop loss defines the point where you become wrong in your predictions. Planning your trade, you should know in advance such a point and cut your loss once it is reached.
Never trade without a stop loss.
Determining Which Equity Index Futures to Trade: ES, NQ, YM, RTYWhen it comes to trading equity index futures, traders have a variety of options, each with its own unique characteristics. The four major players in this space—E-mini S&P 500 (ES), E-mini Nasdaq-100 (NQ), E-mini Dow Jones (YM), and E-mini Russell 2000 (RTY)—offer different advantages depending on your trading goals and risk tolerance. In this article, we’ll dive deep into the contract specifications of each index, explore their volatility using the Average True Range (ATR) on a daily timeframe, and discuss how these factors influence trading strategies.
1. Contract Specifications: Understanding the Basics
Each equity index future has specific contract specifications that are crucial for traders to understand. These details affect not only how the contracts are traded but also the potential risks and rewards involved.
E-mini S&P 500 (ES):
Contract Size: $50 times the S&P 500 Index.
Tick Size: 0.25 index points, equivalent to $12.50 per contract.
Trading Hours: Nearly 24 hours with key sessions during the U.S. trading hours.
Margin Requirements: Change through time given volatility conditions and perceived risk. Currently recommended as $13,800 per contract.
E-mini Nasdaq-100 (NQ):
Contract Size: $20 times the Nasdaq-100 Index.
Tick Size: 0.25 index points, worth $5 per contract.
Trading Hours: Similar to ES, with continuous trading almost 24 hours a day.
Margin Requirements: Higher due to its volatility and the tech-heavy nature of the index. Currently recommended as $21,000 per contract.
E-mini Dow Jones (YM):
Contract Size: $5 times the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index.
Tick Size: 1 index point, equating to $5 per contract.
Trading Hours: Nearly 24-hour trading, with peak activity during U.S. market hours.
Margin Requirements: Relatively lower, making it suitable for conservative traders. Currently recommended as $9,800 per contract.
E-mini Russell 2000 (RTY):
Contract Size: $50 times the Russell 2000 Index.
Tick Size: 0.1 index points, valued at $5 per contract.
Trading Hours: Continuous trading available, with key movements during U.S. hours.
Margin Requirements: Moderate, with significant price movements due to its focus on small-cap stocks. Currently recommended as $7,200 per contract.
Understanding these specifications helps traders align their trading strategies with the right market, considering factors such as account size, risk tolerance, and market exposure.
2. Applying ATR to Assess Volatility: A Key to Risk Management
Volatility is a critical factor in futures trading as it directly impacts the potential risk and reward of any trade. The Average True Range (ATR) is a popular technical indicator that measures market volatility by calculating the average range of price movements over a specified period.
In this analysis, we apply the ATR on a daily timeframe for each of the four indices—ES, NQ, YM, and RTY—to compare their volatility levels:
E-mini S&P 500 (ES): Typically exhibits moderate volatility, offering a balanced approach between risk and reward. Ideal for traders who prefer steady market movements.
E-mini Nasdaq-100 (NQ): Known for higher volatility, driven by the tech sector's dynamic nature. Offers larger price swings, which can lead to greater profit potential but also increased risk.
E-mini Dow Jones (YM): Generally shows lower volatility, reflecting the stability of the large-cap stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Suitable for traders seeking less risky and more predictable price movements.
E-mini Russell 2000 (RTY): Exhibits considerable volatility, as it focuses on small-cap stocks. This makes it attractive for traders looking to capitalize on significant price movements within shorter time frames.
By comparing the changing ATR values, traders can gain insights into which index futures offer the best fit for their trading style—whether they seek aggressive trading opportunities in high-volatility markets like NQ and RTY or more stable conditions in ES and YM.
3. Volatility and Trading Strategy: Matching Markets to Trader Preferences
The relationship between volatility and trading strategy cannot be overstated. High volatility markets like NQ and RTY can provide traders with larger potential profits, but they also require more robust risk management techniques. Conversely, markets like ES and YM may offer lower volatility and, therefore, smaller profit margins but with reduced risk.
Here’s how traders might consider using these indices based on their ATR readings:
Aggressive Traders: Those who thrive on high-risk, high-reward scenarios might prefer NQ or RTY due to their larger price fluctuations. These traders are typically well-versed in managing rapid market movements and can exploit the volatility to achieve significant gains.
Conservative Traders: If stability and consistent returns are more important, ES and YM are likely better suited. These indices provide a more predictable trading environment, allowing for smoother trade execution and potentially fewer surprises in market behavior.
Regardless of your trading style, the key takeaway is to align your strategy with the market conditions. Understanding how each index's volatility affects your potential risk and reward is essential for long-term success in futures trading.
4. Conclusion: Making Informed Trading Decisions
Choosing the right equity index futures to trade goes beyond personal preference. It requires a thorough understanding of contract specifications, an assessment of market volatility, and how these factors align with your trading objectives. Whether you opt for the balanced approach of ES, the tech-driven dynamics of NQ, the stability of YM, or the volatility of RTY, each market presents unique opportunities and challenges.
By leveraging tools like ATR and staying informed about the specific characteristics of each index, traders can make more strategic decisions and optimize their risk-to-reward ratio.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
e-Learning with the TradingMasteryHub - Essential Trading Tools **🚀 Welcome to the TradingMasteryHub Education Series! 📚**
Ready to sharpen your trading skills? Join us as we explore the must-have tools for mastering index and commodity trading. Whether you’re just starting or aiming to refine your strategies, these insights will guide you to find your edge in the markets.
**📊 The Power of Technical Indicators**
Technical indicators are your compass in the market. Tools like Moving Averages (MA/EMA) help smooth out price data to identify trends, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reveals overbought or oversold conditions. Don’t forget Fibonacci Retracement Levels to spot potential support and resistance zones. These indicators form the foundation of your technical analysis toolkit.
**🔍 Sentiment Analysis: Gauge the Market’s Mood**
Understanding market sentiment is key to anticipating price movements. Use tools like the Commitments of Traders (COT) Report for insights into futures markets, and keep an eye on the Volatility Index (VIX) to measure market fear and uncertainty. These tools help you gauge the emotional pulse of the market.
**📅 Economic Calendars: Stay Ahead of Major Moves**
Never miss a beat with economic calendars. Track key events like interest rate decisions and GDP releases that can impact index and commodity prices. Staying informed about these events ensures you’re prepared for significant market movements.
**🔗 Market Correlations: Understand the Bigger Picture**
Understanding how different markets are interconnected can give you a strategic advantage. Tools that show correlations between assets, like the relationship between gold and the U.S. dollar, can help you make more informed trading decisions.
**📈 Volume Analysis: Confirm Trends and Breakouts**
Volume is a crucial factor in understanding price movements. Tools like **Volume Profile** allow you to see the distribution of traded volume at different price levels, highlighting areas of strong support and resistance. This can help you identify key price zones where the market is likely to react.
**VWAP** (Volume Weighted Average Price) is another essential tool, showing the average price at which an asset has traded throughout the day. It serves as a benchmark for fair value, and deviations from the VWAP can signal potential reversals or continuation patterns.
**RVOL** (Relative Volume) measures the current trading volume relative to the average volume over a given period. High RVOL indicates stronger-than-normal market activity, helping confirm the strength of a trend or breakout.
**Pivot Points** are also key indicators that help traders identify potential support and resistance levels based on the previous period's high, low, and closing prices. They offer a quick way to spot key levels where the price might bounce or break through, aiding in your decision-making process.
- **Pro Tip:** On TradingView, I recommend using the TPO (Time Price Opportunity *new*) indicator for a deeper volume analysis. Search for TPO, disable everything in "style" under the settings, and enable "show volume profile," VAL, VAH & POC. This setup will help you visualise significant areas of support and resistance, enhancing your ability to make informed trading decisions.
**🛡️ Risk Management Tools: Protect Your Portfolio**
Risk management is the backbone of successful trading. Use position sizing calculators to manage your exposure, and set Stop-Loss and Take-Profit orders to automate your exits. Protecting your capital is just as important as growing it.
**🔒 Risk Management in Proprietary Trading: Staying Within the Lines**
As TradingMasteryHub is working with a proprietary firm, we must adhere to strict risk management rules to protect the capital provided to us. One of the key rules is the **maximum daily drawdown**, typically set between 0,5-1% (Futures) and 3-7% (CFDs) of the account size.
For example, with a $500,000 account, the daily drawdown limit would be $25,000 (5%). To stay within this limit, we never risk more than 20% of the daily drawdown on a single trade. In this case, the maximum risk per trade would be $5,000.
By following these guidelines, we ensure that we remain aligned with the firm’s risk management protocols, safeguarding both our positions and the firm’s capital.
**🔚 Conclusion and Recommendation**
Mastering index and commodity trading requires a well-rounded toolkit. By combining technical indicators, sentiment analysis, economic awareness, and risk management, you can navigate the markets with confidence. Remember, consistent practice and disciplined strategies will pave your way to success.
**🔥 Can’t Get Enough? Don’t Miss Out!**
Subscribe, share, and engage with us in the comments. This is the start of a supportive trading community—built by traders, for traders! 🚀 Join us on the journey to market mastery, where we grow, learn, and succeed together. 💪
**💡 What You’ll Learn:**
- Essential technical indicators
- How to gauge market sentiment
- The importance of economic calendars
- Risk management strategies
- And much more!...
Best wishes,
TradingMasteryHub
75: Comprehensive Guide to Volume Profiles and Volume in TradingWhat is a Volume Profile?
A Volume Profile is an advanced charting tool that plots the amount of trading activity (volume) across different price levels over a specific period. Unlike traditional volume indicators that only show volume over time, Volume Profiles provide insights into where the majority of trading took place, highlighting key areas of support and resistance, as well as zones of high and low interest among traders.
Key Components of Volume Profiles:
1. Point of Control (POC) : This is the price level where the highest volume of trades occurred. The POC is a crucial level because it represents the price at which traders found the most value, making it a strong indicator of support or resistance.
2. Value Area (VA) : The Value Area represents the range of prices where approximately 70% of the volume was traded. This area is divided into the Value Area High (VAH) and Value Area Low (VAL). The VA is significant because it identifies the zone where most market participants were active, providing a clear picture of market consensus on value.
3. High Volume Nodes (HVN) and Low Volume Nodes (LVN) : HVNs are price levels where there was a large amount of trading activity, indicating significant interest and often serving as strong support or resistance levels. LVNs, on the other hand, represent areas with minimal trading activity, where prices tend to move quickly due to the lack of interest.
The Importance of Volume in Trading
Volume is a fundamental aspect of market analysis, offering insights into the strength and sustainability of price movements. It reflects the level of participation in a market, indicating the intensity of buying or selling at different price levels.
- Confirmation of Price Movements : High volume confirms the legitimacy of a price move. For example, a price breakout from a resistance level on high volume is more likely to be sustained than one on low volume.
- Reversals and Continuations : Spikes in volume can signal potential reversals, especially when occurring at significant price levels such as the POC or near the VA boundaries. Conversely, a sustained high volume along a trend can indicate its continuation.
- Validation of Support and Resistance : Volume at key levels like the POC, VAH, and VAL helps validate these areas as strong support or resistance. When price interacts with these levels on high volume, it suggests that many market participants are active, reinforcing the importance of these price levels.
How to Interpret and Use Volume Profiles:
1. Identifying Key Price Levels :
- The POC acts as a magnet for price, often drawing the price back to it when it moves away. This level is crucial for identifying potential areas of reversal or consolidation.
- The Value Area is where the majority of the trading activity occurs. Prices above the VAH might indicate an overbought condition, while prices below the VAL could suggest an oversold market.
2. Volume and Market Sentiment :
- High Volume Nodes indicate areas of significant interest, where prices tend to stabilize due to heavy trading. These areas often become zones of accumulation or distribution, depending on market conditions.
- Low Volume Nodes indicate price levels with minimal trading interest, where prices may move quickly and encounter less resistance, often leading to rapid price changes or breakouts.
3. Order Flow and Large Volume Blocks :
- Large blocks of volume, particularly at HVNs, suggest the presence of institutional traders or significant market participants placing large orders. These zones are critical because they reflect where big players are accumulating or distributing their positions. As a result, these areas tend to create strong support or resistance levels that can define future market behavior.
4. Dynamic vs. Static Profiles :
- Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVR): This type of profile updates as you scroll through your chart, dynamically showing the volume distribution for the visible price range. It’s useful for analyzing the current market context and finding immediate trading opportunities.
- Fixed Range Volume Profile (FRVP): This profile is static, showing volume data for a specified price range or time period. It’s valuable for comparing current price action to historical data, helping identify long-term support and resistance levels.
Practical Tips for Using Volume Profiles :
1. Customization and Settings :
- Adjust the number of rows or ticks per row in your Volume Profile settings to get a more detailed or broader view of volume distribution. More rows will give you finer detail, while fewer rows will smooth out the data, highlighting major trends.
2. Combining with Other Indicators :
- Use Volume Profiles in conjunction with other technical indicators like moving averages, RSI, or MACD to confirm trading signals and enhance the reliability of your analysis.
3. Adapting to Different Timeframes :
- Tailor your Volume Profile analysis to your trading style. For day traders, shorter timeframes (e.g., 5, 15, 30 minutes) might be more relevant, while swing traders or investors might focus on daily, weekly, or even monthly profiles to identify long-term trends and key levels.
4. Observing Market Reactions at Key Levels :
- Pay close attention to how the market reacts when it approaches HVNs, LVNs, the POC, or the boundaries of the Value Area. These reactions can provide clues about future price movements and potential trading opportunities.
Volume Profiles offer a deep and nuanced view of market behavior by highlighting where significant trading activity has occurred at different price levels. By understanding the interaction between volume and price, traders can make more informed decisions, identify key levels for entry and exit, and gain insights into market sentiment. Integrating Volume Profile analysis into your trading strategy can provide a significant edge, enhancing your ability to navigate the complexities of financial markets.
Demo Account Will Not Make You a PRO TRADER
Hey traders,
In this article, we will discuss demo account trading .
We will discuss its importance for newbie traders and its flaws.
➕ Pros:
Demo account is the best tool to get familiar with the financial markets . It gives you instant access to hundreds of different financial instruments.
With a demo account, you can learn how the trading terminal works . You can execute the trading orders freely and get familiar with its types. You can get acquainted with leverage, spreads and volatility.
Trading on paper money, you do not incur any risks , while you can see the real impact of your actions on your account balance.
Demo account is the best instrument for developing and testing a trading strategy , not risking any penny.
The absence of risk makes demo trading absolutely stress-free.
➖ Cons:
The incurred losses have no real impact , not causing real emotions and pressure, which you always experience trading on a real account.
Your performance (positive or negative) does not influence your future decisions.
Real market conditions are tougher. Demo accounts execute the orders a bit differently than the real ones. That is clearly felt during the moments of high volatility, with the order slippage occurring less often and trade execution being longer.
Trading with paper money allows you to trade with the sums being unaffordable in a real life, misrepresenting your real potential gains and providing a false confidence in success.
Even though we spotted multiple negative elements of demo trading, I want you to realize that it still remains the essential part of your trading journey and one of the main training tools. You should spend as much time on demo trading as you need to build confidence in your actions, only then you can gradually switch to real account trading.
How I Stay Organized and Efficient During My Morning RoutineGood morning, traders! ☕️ As I gear up for the trading session, here's how I stay organized and efficient during my morning routine:
1️⃣ Plan the night before: I prep my trading station, review market news, and outline my trading goals before calling it a day. This sets a clear roadmap for the morning and reduces decision fatigue.
2️⃣ Start with a ritual: I kick-start my morning with a ritual that helps me get focused and energized. Whether it's meditation, visualization, exercise, or enjoying a cup of coffee/tea, this routine primes my mind for the challenges ahead.
3️⃣ Time blocking: I allocate specific time slots for key activities like fundamental and sentiment research, top down technical analysis, bias matrices, reviewing trade setups, and analyzing charts. This helps me stay on track, avoid distractions, and make the most of my pre-session hours.
4️⃣ Utilize checklists: I have a checklist that outlines essential tasks like reviewing economic data, assessing overnight market developments, rebalancing portfolio and updating my watchlist. If I have anything specific I need to focus on that session, I will take note too. This ensures I don't miss important steps or actions/tasks.
5️⃣ Stay organized digitally: I leverage technology tools like trading journals, note-taking apps, and calendar reminders to keep track of my trade ideas, record observations, and stay organized. This digital approach streamlines my workflow most of the time.
6️⃣ Focus on self-care: Prioritizing self-care is vital for optimal performance. I make sure to nourish my body with a healthy breakfast, hydrate adequately (especially important during the extended heat waves I experience where I live), and take short breaks to relax and recharge. A balanced mindset is key to success.
Finding an efficient morning routine is a personal journey. Experiment with different strategies, listen to your needs, and fine-tune your routine over time. Start your day right and set yourself up for trading success! 📈✨
Decode Central Bank Speakers like a Pro🌞Good morning, traders! Want to decode central bank speakers' speeches like a pro? Here are key tips for interpretation:
1️⃣ Context is key: Understand the broader economic landscape, recent policy decisions, and market expectations. This helps decipher the underlying messages and potential policy shifts in the speeches.
2️⃣ Listen beyond words: Pay attention to tone, emphasis, and non-verbal cues during speeches. Central bank officials often communicate subtly through these signals, providing insights into their confidence levels and policy stance.
3️⃣ Identify key keywords: Look for phrases such as "gradual," "data-dependent," or "balanced approach." These can indicate a cautious stance. Conversely, terms like "vigilance," "imminent risks," or "considering options" may signal potential policy changes.
4️⃣ Market impact analysis: Assess the reaction of financial markets to previous speeches by the same speaker. This helps gauge the credibility and influence of the individual and their potential impact on currency, bonds, and equities.
5️⃣ Read between speeches: Compare and contrast speeches by different central bank officials. Look for consensus or divergence in their messages, as it provides insights into potential divisions or unity within the policymaking body.
Interpreting central bank speakers' speeches is an art that combines analysis, intuition, and market knowledge. Stay informed, keep learning, and refine your interpretation skills for better decision-making.
Mindset and Beliefs: The Foundation of Successful TradingAfter 16 years of trading, I have come to realize that mindset and beliefs are critical to achieving consistent success in the markets.
Through personal experience and countless hours of market analysis, I've discovered that the psychological aspect of trading often makes the difference between consistent gains and recurring losses.
Today we will explore how your mindset and beliefs shape your trading performance and provide practical exercises that I've personally used to develop a winning trading mentality.
Understanding Mindset and Beliefs - The Role of Mindset in Trading
Your mindset encompasses your attitudes, beliefs, and emotional responses towards trading. It influences every decision you make, from the trades you choose to enter to how you react to losses and gains.
A positive, growth-oriented mindset helps traders navigate the volatile nature of the markets, while a fixed, fear-driven mindset can lead to poor decision-making and emotional trading.
Reflecting Beliefs in Trading Results
One of the most profound realizations I've had is that the market will reflect your limiting beliefs back to you in the results you achieve. If you have negative beliefs about money, success, or your self-worth, these beliefs will manifest in your trading outcomes.
For instance, if you subconsciously believe you are not deserving of success or wealth, you may find yourself making decisions that lead to losses, reinforcing those beliefs.
Key Beliefs for Successful Trading
To become a consistently profitable trader, it's crucial to cultivate empowering beliefs. Here are the key beliefs that have transformed my trading journey:
The Market is Neutral: - The market does not act against you personally. It moves based on the collective actions of all participants. Believing the market is neutral helps you stay objective and not take losses personally.
Accepting Uncertainty: - Embrace the uncertainty of trading. Each trade's outcome is unknown and should be viewed as part of a probability game. Accepting this uncertainty reduces emotional reactions to market movements.
Deserving of Success and Wealth: - Develop the belief that you are deserving of success and allowed to make money. This positive self-concept can shift your actions and decisions, aligning them with wealth creation.
Focus on Process Over Outcome: - Successful traders focus on following their trading process rather than fixating on individual trade outcomes. This helps in maintaining consistency and emotional stability.
Practical Exercises to Develop a Positive Trading Mindset
These techniques are not just theoretical. They are exercises I have practiced over the years, transforming me from a consistently losing trader to a consistently profitable one.
Self-Awareness Journaling - Objective: Identify and challenge limiting beliefs.
Exercise:
Step 1: At the end of each trading day, write down any negative thoughts or beliefs you had during trading. For example, "I always lose money on Fridays" or "The market is out to get me."
Step 2: Challenge these beliefs by questioning their validity. Ask yourself, "Is this belief based on facts or emotions?"
Step 3: Replace negative beliefs with positive affirmations. For example, "I am continuously improving my trading skills" or "The market offers opportunities every day."
Frequency: Daily - This exercise helped me recognize and reframe the negative thoughts that were sabotaging my trading efforts.
Visualization Techniques - Objective: Build confidence and a positive mental image of trading success.
Exercise:
Step 1: Sit in a quiet place and close your eyes.
Step 2: Visualize yourself successfully executing trades. Imagine each step, from analyzing the charts to placing the trade and seeing it reach your target.
Step 3: Feel the emotions associated with successful trading, such as confidence and calmness.
Frequency: Daily for 5-10 minutes - Regular visualization has ingrained a sense of confidence and calm, enabling me to approach each trading day with a clear and focused mind.
Cognitive Reframing - Objective: Change negative trading experiences into learning opportunities.
Exercise:
Step 1: Reflect on a recent trading loss.
Step 2: Write down the negative emotions and thoughts associated with the loss.
Step 3: Reframe the experience by identifying what you learned from it. For instance, "I learned the importance of setting stop-loss orders."
Frequency: After every significant trading loss - By reframing losses as learning opportunities, I've been able to grow and improve my trading strategies continuously.
Meditation and Mindfulness - Objective: Enhance focus and emotional regulation.
Exercise:
Step 1: Find a comfortable sitting position.
Step 2: Close your eyes and focus on your breathing.
Step 3: If your mind wanders, gently bring your focus back to your breath.
Frequency: Daily for 10-15 minutes - Meditation has been a game-changer for maintaining emotional control and staying calm during volatile market conditions.
My Transformation in Trading Mindset
Early in my trading career, I struggled with a fixed mindset, believing I wasn't cut out for trading due to a few early losses. I often felt the market was against me and reacted emotionally to trades, resulting in a cycle of poor decisions and further losses.
My beliefs about money, success, and self-worth were reflected in my trading results. The market seemed to mirror my negative beliefs back to me, causing me to lose money consistently.
By incorporating the exercises above, I gradually shifted my mindset:
Self-Awareness Journaling helped me identify and challenge my belief that I would never be a successful trader. I replaced negative thoughts with affirmations of continuous improvement and opportunity.
Visualization Techniques built my confidence by allowing me to mentally practice successful trades, which in turn manifested in real trading scenarios.
Cognitive Reframing turned my losses into valuable learning experiences, reducing my emotional reactions and helping me grow as a trader.
Meditation and Mindfulness enhanced my focus and emotional control, helping me stay calm during volatile market conditions.
Over time, I developed a more positive, growth-oriented mindset. I started to see losses as part of the learning process and focused on following my trading plan diligently.
This transformation in mindset led to more consistent trading performance and increased profitability. The market began to reflect my new, positive beliefs back to me in the form of consistent trading gains.
Conclusion
Your mindset and beliefs form the foundation of your trading success. By developing a positive, growth-oriented mindset and challenging limiting beliefs, you can enhance your trading performance.
The practical exercises outlined above provide a roadmap for transforming your mindset and achieving greater consistency and success in trading.
Remember, the journey to mastering trading psychology is continuous. Stay committed to these practices, and you'll gradually build the mental resilience and confidence needed to thrive in the markets.
These techniques have been instrumental in my journey from a consistently losing trader to a consistently profitable one. I believe they can do the same for you.
How to dollar cost averge with precisionI've seen several dollar cost averaging calculator online, however there is something I usually see missing. How many stocks should you buy if you want your average cost to be a specific value. Usually the calculators will ask how much you bought at each level ang give you the average, but not the other way around (telling you how much to buy to make your average a specific value). For this, I decided to make the calculations on my own.
Here, you can see the mathematical demonstration: www.mathcha.io
HOW-TO: Integrate Probabilities into Mechanical Trading StrategyIf you want to skip all the explanations and start working with the OptiRange indicator right away , skip to the last paragraph.
What are the two main approaches in manual trading?
In the world of manual trading, there are two main approaches: mechanical and discretionary trading.
Mechanical or systematic trading is about sticking to a set of predefined rules, almost like following a recipe. Even though you're still executing the trades manually, the decisions are made based on a systematic approach that doesn’t waver. This method is designed to leverage a specific edge in the market, reducing emotional involvement and decision-making stress.
Discretionary trading is a trading approach that relies heavily on the trader's judgment and intuition. Unlike mechanical trading, which follows strict, predefined rules, discretionary trading involves making decisions based on a subjective evaluation of market conditions , price patterns, news events, and other factors. Traders using this method often seek to add confluence—multiple signals or pieces of evidence—to support their trade decisions.
However, this approach can sometimes mislead traders into believing they are identifying high-probability opportunities .
This can create a false sense of confidence , forcing you more likely to take trades that don't actually align with any proven edge. The result is often poor trading decisions, driven by overconfidence rather than objective analysis.
Why isn't mechanical trading talked about more often?
Many people aren't aware of mechanical trading because most trading mentors and courses focus on discretionary trading. This method is more intuitive and accessible, especially for beginners who are interested in learning how to read charts.
Discretionary trading is often seen as more engaging and gives traders a sense of control, which can be appealing.
If mechanical trading is so effective, why do most mentors teach discretionary trading?
Discretionary trading is easier to understand and start with It also appears to offer more flexibility and engagement. As a result, it's more commonly taught and discussed, which means many traders don't get exposed to the benefits of a systematic, rules-based approach like mechanical trading. This leads to a lack of awareness and understanding about the potential advantages of mechanical trading strategies.
Why aren't more mentors switching from discretionary trading to mechanical trading?
Many mentors stick with teaching discretionary trading because it allows them to cover up losses and highlight their winning trades more easily. They can always justify their trading decisions with various explanations, keeping their clients entertained and engaged. This approach creates a dependency, as clients often feel they need ongoing guidance to navigate the complexities of the market.
In contrast, if a mentor were to teach mechanical trading, students would learn a clear set of rules and strategies. Once these rules are understood, traders can become independent, reducing their reliance on the mentor . This independence can be less appealing to mentors who want to maintain a steady stream of clients. Thus, the lack of transparency and the ability to mystify trading strategies keep the focus on discretionary trading methods.
Why consistency is key in trading?
Consistency is essential in trading because it directly affects your results. When your approach varies, such as with discretionary analysis that changes with each setup, your outcomes become unpredictable. Sticking to a set of rules, however, gives you predictable and reliable results.
When you adhere to a fixed set of rules, your actions remain consistent. This consistency leads to results that are also reliable and predictable.
With mechanical trading rules, you're not relying on guesswork or intuition. You have a clear, predefined set of actions, knowing exactly what to do and when to do it.
What are the first steps I should be taking to become a systematic trader?
The first step towards becoming an independent systematic trader is accepting that consistently beating the market with discretionary trading is highly challenging. Despite what you might see on social media—traders getting funded and posting their success—these stories are often disconnected from the reality of intuition-based trading. Many traders spend thousands on challenges, and while some might get lucky and achieve initial funding, they often end up blowing their accounts after a few emotional sessions.
Instead, I want you to shift your focus to developing your own understanding of systematic trading. Know the fact that sticking to pre-defined rules and executing a mechanical trading strategy is key to long-term success. This approach requires you to take it seriously and act responsibly, adhering to a structured, rules-based system that removes emotion and improves your consistency.
The second step is to study the market on your own and identify setups that occur repeatedly across multiple timeframes. Develop clear, step-by-step rules for your strategy and understand the logic behind each rule. Once your rules are written out, create a flowchart to visualize and follow them daily, ensuring you stick to the strategy without introducing flexibility.
Afterward, spend several months backtesting your strategy to verify that the edge you plan to execute is genuinely profitable. This thorough testing will help confirm that your approach works under different market conditions and provides the consistency needed for systematic trading.
Luckily for you, I have done it all. it took me one year to test and validate the strategy by manually going through data collection and backtesting and one year to fully code the strategy into an indicator so I can trade it as systematic as possible.
I'm more than happy to share this with rule-driven individuals who are serious about excelling their trading business.
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How does the OptiRange indicator work?
Market Structure: The Optirange indicator analyzes market structure across multiple timeframes, from a top-down perspective, including 12M, 6M, 3M, 1M, 2W, 1W, 3D, and 1D all the way down to hourly timeframes including 12H 8H 6H 4H 2H 1H.
Fractal Blocks: Once the market structure or current range is identified, the indicator automatically identifies the last push before the break and draws it as a box. These zones acts as a key area where the price often rejects from.
Mitigations: After identifying the Fractal Block, the indicator checks for price mitigation or rejection within this zone. If mitigation occurs, meaning the price has reacted or rejected from the Fractal Block, the indicator draws a checkmark from the deepest candle within the Fractal Block to the initial candle that has created the zone.
Bias Table: After identifying the three key elements—market structure, Fractal Blocks, and price mitigations—the indicator compiles this information into a multi-timeframe table. This table provides a comprehensive top-down perspective, showing what is happening from a structural standpoint across all timeframes. The Bias Table presents raw data, including identified Fractal Blocks and mitigations, to help traders understand the overall market trend. This data is crucial for the screener, which uses it to determine the current market bias based on a top-down analysis.
Screener: Once all higher timeframes (HTF) and lower timeframes (LTF) are calculated using the indicator, it follows the exact rules outlined in the flowchart to determine the market bias. This systematic approach not only helps identify the current market trend but also suggests the exact timeframes to use for finding entry, particularly on hourly timeframes.
According to the above trade plan, why do we only look for mitigations within Fractal Blocks of X1/X2?
In this context, "X" stands for a break in the market's structure, and the numbers (1 and 2) indicate the sequence of these breaks within the same trend direction, either up or down.
We focus on mitigations within Fractal Blocks during the X1/X2 stages because these points mark the early phase (X1) and the continuation (X2) of a trend. By doing so, we align our trades with the market's main direction and avoid getting stopped out in the middle of trends.
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To illustrate how the script analyzes market data and the thought process behind it, let's go through an example.
Example:
12M Timeframe: FX:EURUSD
6M Timeframe : FX:EURUSD
3M Timeframe : FX:EURUSD
1M Timeframe : FX:EURUSD
2W Timeframe : FX:EURUSD
1W Timeframe : FX:EURUSD
Hourly Entry: FX:EURUSD
Final HTF TP: FX:EURUSD
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Don’t worry about understanding every detail of how the script works.
It's only to show you how the indicator calculates multiple timeframe and how it guides you on when to sell/buy or stay away.
Last paragraph:
You can simply turn on the Screener in user-input so that the indicator instantly does a top-down analysis for you using the strategy flowchart and decides for you what hourly timeframes you should be using to get your entries.
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Now that you understand how the OptiRange indicator works, you can start using it to execute a mechanical edge from today.
If you have any questions or need further assistance, feel free to leave a comment!
How to Apply a Position Size Calculator in Forex Trading
In this educational article, I will teach you how to apply a position size calculator in Forex and calculate a lot size for your trades depending on a desired risk .
Why do you need a position size calculator?
Even though, most of the newbie traders trade with the fixed lot , the truth is that fixed lot trading is considered to be very risky .
Depending on the trading instrument, time frame and a desired stop loss, the risks from one trade to another are constantly floating .
With the constant fluctuations of losses per trade, it is very complicated to control your risks and drawdowns.
A lot size calculation , however, allows you to risk the desired percentage of your capital per trade , limiting the maximum you can potentially lose.
A lot size is calculated with a position size calculator .
How to Measure Lot Size for Trades?
Let's measure a lot size for the following trade on EURUSD.
Step 1:
Measure a pip value of your stop loss.
It is the distance from your entry level to your stop loss level.
In the example on the picture, the stop loss is 35 pips.
Step 2:
Open a position size calculator
Step 3:
Fill the form.
Inputs: Account currency, account balance, desired risk %, stop loss in pips, currency pair.
Let's say that we are trading with USD account.
Its balance is $10000.
The risk for this trade is 1%.
Step 4:
Calculate a lot size.
The system will calculate a lot size for your trade.
0.28 standard lot in our example.
Taking a trade on EURUSD with $10000 deposit and 35 pips stop loss , you will need 0.28 lot size to risk 1% of your trading account.
Learn to apply a position size calculator. That is the must-use tool for a proper risk management.
Buy call option – at the money / in the money / out of the moneyDefinitions
Buy call option – a stock option is the right to buy a stock (but not the obligation) at a certain price for a limited period of time. The price at which the stock may be bought is called the striking price.
Three terms describe the relationship between the stock price and the options striking price: At the money / In the money / Out of the money
For example; stock XYZ trade at $100
At the money – the strike price of the option is $100
In the money - the strike price of the option is $90
Out of the money – the strike price of the option is $110
The strike price is one of the 6 factors that determine the price of the option.
Those factors are:
1. The price of the stock
2. The strike price of the option
3. The time until the option expires
4. The volatility of the stock also called “implied volatility”
5. The risk-free interest rate (usually the 90-day treasury bills)
6. The dividend rate of the stock.
The last two have less influence on the option price.
The option pricing has two elements, “time premium” and “intrinsic value”.
In this post, I’m not going to elaborate on those two. (But they are important to understand).
The Delta
The delta of an option is the amount by which the call option will increase or decrease in price if the stock moves by 1 point. The values of the delta are between zero to one, if the call option is in the money the delta is closer to 1 if the call option is out of the money the delta is closer to 0.
For example; if the stock option has a delta value of 0.8, this means that if the stock increases or decreases in price by $1 per share, the option price will rise or fall by $0.8.
The option pricing is based on a partial differential equation because of that the behaver of the option pricing is not linear, as we can see from the charts.
In the right chart, we see In the money option with a delta of 0.92, meaning the option price is behaving very similar to the stock price, we see that the lines are nearly flat.
In the left chart, we see Out of the money option with a delta of 0.12, meaning the option price does not move like the stock price, for every $1 the stock will move the option price will move $0.12.
Also, note the difference between the profit lines, to make 3 points with In the money option the stock needs to move to above $190, but the Out of the money option needs only to move above $145.
This was the profit side, the losing side as you can see if the stock will remain at the same place the In the money options will break-even while the Out of the money options will expire worthless and will lose 1 point.
The options that were used (input):
Right chart: Option price -> $25.9, Stock price -> $115 , Strike price -> 90$ , Interest rate -> 0 , Days to expire -> 56 , Implied volatility -> 40.8%
Left chart: Option price -> $1.17, Stock price -> $115 , Strike price -> $140 , Interest rate -> 0 , Days to expire -> 56 , Implied volatility -> 40.8%
One option contract is the right to buy 100 shares so the cost for the options would be: $2590 and $117 respectively, not include commissions.
For clarification: If you hold it to expiration and it is not worthless, that means you need to buy 100 shares at the strike price, $9000 in the right chart, $14,000 in the left chart. (not include what you already paid)
Optimizing Technical Analysis with Logarithmic Scales▮ Introduction
In the realm of technical analysis, making sense of market behavior is crucial for traders and investors. One foundational aspect is selecting the right scale to view price charts. This educational piece delves into the significance of logarithmic scaling and how it can enhance your technical analysis.
▮ Understanding Scales
- Linear Scale
This is a common graphing approach where each unit change on the vertical axis represents the same absolute value.
- Logarithmic Scale
Unlike the linear scale, the logarithmic scale adjusts intervals to represent percentage changes.
Here, each step up/down the axis signifies a constant percentage increase/decrease.
▮ Why Use the Logarithmic Scale?
The logarithmic scale offers a more insightful way to analyze price movements, especially when the price range varies significantly.
By focusing on percentage changes rather than absolute values, long-term trends and patterns become more apparent, making it easier to make informed trading decisions.
▮ Comparative Examples
Consider the Bitcoin price movement:
- On a linear scale, a 343% increase from $3,124 to $13,870 looks smaller compared to the same percentage increase from $13,870 to $61,769. This disparity occurs because the linear scale emphasizes absolute changes.
- On the logarithmic scale, both 343% increases appear proportional, giving a clearer representation.
Additionally, in a falling price scenario, a linear graph might show a smaller box for an 84% drop compared to a 77% drop, simply because of absolute values' significance. The logarithmic scale corrects this, showing the true extent of percentage declines.
▮ Advantages and Disadvantages
Advantages:
- Fairer comparison of price movements.
- Consistent representation of percentage changes.
- More reliable support and resistance lines.
Disadvantages:
- Potential misalignment of alerts (www.tradingview.com).
- Drawing inclined lines might create distortions when switching scales:
A possible solution is the use the "Object Tree" feature on TradingView to manage graphical elements distinctly for each scale.
▮ How to Apply Logarithmic Scale on TradingView
Enabling the logarithmic scale on TradingView is straightforward:
- Click on the letter "L" in the lower right corner of the graph (the column where prices are shown);
- Another option is use of the keyboard shortcut, pressing ALT + L .
▮ Conclusion
The logarithmic scale is an invaluable tool for technical analysis, providing a more accurate representation of percentage changes and simplifying long-term pattern recognition.
While it has its limitations, thoughtful application alongside other analytical tools can greatly enhance your market insights.
How to start Trading!We (the discord mods) are trying to get a document going where people can look for advice on how to get started in trading, its not an easy question and certainly not an easy answer, but here we go :)
Be prepared that to becoming a profitable trader you will need months (even years) of training and learning, but its worth the time!
The beauty of Tradingview and its tools (Paper trading) is that you can learn it all for free. (All you need is time). You can demo trade for free, learn and experiance how the market moves, learn what you want to do later in life and learn all the nessessary tools you will need!
We realize that certain information is maybe something that you dont agree first or you say "what? that cant be real?", but bear with us for the time being, go through this document and then decide!
So, lets start with the first question for you:
What lifestyle do you have at the moment?
Why is that important? well, for each trade you need a few hours of preparation, and if you are a daytrader (intraday trader or scalper) then you trade each day (even multiple times) and each time you need preparation, can you do that? can you sit 4-6h infront of the computer everyday to analyse a trade?
If not, we have other options for you.. for example swing trader or investor.
What type of person are you?
For example: if you decide to do scalping, be prepared to get more stressful situations then a daytrader.
So it's important to figure out how you want to trade and what you can actually handle (the psychology in trading has a HUGE impact of your trading life.)
If you go and test out some strategies and you realize that this is not for you, then you have a clear sign that you shouldnt explore this further.
What type of assets can you trade?
There are local laws that you have to follow in your country that may be restrictive to certain assets so you have to figure out what you can actually trade. There are plenty of assets outthere, you just have to explore them and search for a broker you can actually sign up with a KYC.
For this, the best option is to go to Brokers and check them out until you find one that is allowed in your country.
(Be careful with brokers not on tradingviews list, for example if you want to trade crypto but its not allowed in your country but you find some broker you can sign up, the problem comes once you want to withdraw and use the money in your country. your local bank is most likely not letting you do that.)
Basics of Trading
No matter what you decide to be (daytrader, scalper, investor..), you will need to learn the basics of all of them.
Learn all the basic Terms such as:
- Long / Short (Bullish / Bearish)
- Bid / Ask (combined with spread below)
- Crypto, Forex, CFD, Stocks, Options (Bonds, Shares, Indices...)
- Market Order / Limit Order (Stoploss (SL), Profit Target (TP), Trailing)
- Leverage
- Margin / Balance
- Spread / Slippage
- Gaps
- Ranges
- Timeframe / Sessions
And then there are the major Indicators:
- RSI
- MACD
- Stochastics
- Moving Averages (simple, exponential, smoothed, and so on..)
- Price trends
- Support and Resistance (Supply & Demand)
- Volume
I know, alot of you reading this go like "What? indicators are useless, price action is the real deal.." but thats not the point here, we are learning the basics of trading. The more you know the better you will be at trading. Knowledge is power.
Also i would advice you to study the math behind them too, while you do that you learn how and why they act the way they do!
Journal
Yes, we all hate it but we all know why its good to do! :)
The simplest method i find is to use the long/short tool of tradingview, write down the notes in a textfield and then hide it in the control-center of your drawings (rightclick into chart -> Object Tree)
Do it! you won't regret it!
Risk Reward
This topic is something so many of you ignore and its one of the most important part of trading.
You all heard the sentence "there is no trading without SL" and some of you may think "yeah, thats not true", but in the Risk Reward section you learn how and why this sentence is as true as it gets. you never, ever trade without SL because otherwise you cant calculate your risk.
There is also the golden rule "Never risk more then 1% of your Money" and with an SL you can manage this sentence, without it, how can you even begin to manage this? you can't.
(Yes, i know some of you risk 2-5%, but not me, im a firm believer you should never break this rule).
If you risk 1% and lose 10 times in a row, you lost 10%. if your RR is 1:3, you need 4 wins to regain your losses.
If you risk 2% and lose 10 times in a row, you lost 20%. if your RR is 1:3, you need 7 wins to regain your losses.
... you see where this goes, right?
For this, and any other topic above, the best thing to use is the Search function on tradingview, input the title and read it all. (yes, all, yes it will take weeks, yes tahts what its all about)
Psychology
Okey, this one is a big one. not gonna lie, that will take the most time because we are all humans.
you will experiance FOMO (fear of missing out), greed, rage, and so on... thats just normal.
Thats the biggest reason to start journaling your trades, write down what you felt, why did you take a trade that you realize you shouldnt have in the first place?
So, in psychology everyone needs to figure out how he/she is obviously, i can just tell you how i do it right now and what steps made the biggest impact:
I do only 1:2 RR trades.
- Yes, after 1:2 im out, i dont care if he goes to the moon, all i care is that im no longer in a trade (my mind plays all kinds of tricks while in a trade.)
- Big impact!
I only trade 1 asset.
- I trade EURUSD all day long for years now. No, i dont look at others while im actively trading.
- Big impact!
I set and forget.
- i put in my SL and TP and once im in the trade (or even set the limit order) im semi-afk from the charts.
- I have 2 alerts on my tradingview, one for the TP and one for the SL. thats it.
those few steps helped me a ton in my trading, and yes, they may not be for everyone but it is just a showcase of hwo you need to find something that works for you.
ELLIOTT WAVES CHEAT SHEET 🏄♂️ 10 RulesHello, here is a cheat sheet for Elliott Waves for top 10 Rules, so you can print this out and keep on your desk.
The Elliott wave principle is a form of technical analysis that finance traders use to analyze financial market cycles and forecast market trends by identifying extremes in investor psychology, highs and lows in prices, and other collective factors. Ralph Nelson Elliott (1871–1948), a professional accountant, discovered the underlying social principles and developed the analytical tools in the 1930s. He proposed that market prices unfold in specific patterns, which practitioners today call Elliott waves, or simply waves. Elliott published his theory of market behavior in the book The Wave Principle in 1938, summarized it in a series of articles in Financial World magazine in 1939, and covered it most comprehensively in his final major work, Nature's Laws: The Secret of the Universe in 1946. Elliott stated that "because man is subject to rhythmical procedure, calculations having to do with his activities can be projected far into the future with a justification and certainty heretofore unattainable." The empirical validity of the Elliott wave principle remains the subject of debate.
How to Send Alerts from Tradingview to Telegram I found a new way for sending alerts from tradingview to telegram channel or telegram group by using webhook. I’ve been looking for a while and most of the ways had problems. Some of them had delays in sending the alerts and were not secure because they were using public bots. Some of them required money and were not free. Some of the ways needed coding knowledge. The way I recommend does not have these problems.
It has three simple steps:
1. Creating a telegram channel or group;
2. Creating a telegram bot by using botfather;
3. Signing in/up in pipedream.com.
I made a video for presenting my way. I hope it was helpful and if you have any questions make sure to comment so I can help you.
Thank you!
Social Media - and its danger!Social Media... the part of the Internet that is very dangerous when it comes to promises, money, and wealth.
We've all seen it: on social media, you can supposedly make millions in under 15 minutes. Pictures with a Lamborghini and a TradingView chart above it...
Let's go through some thoughts new traders may not be aware of and how to look at them with a critical mind!
(🚩 -> Red Flag)
📍 MetaTrader / Think or Swim / NinjaTrader / cTrader 📍
There are more, but let's focus on the more popular ones.
Pictures of winning trades are useless when it comes to trading. Trading is done over years in a consistent manner, not over a few trades.
Pictures of MT5, NT, or any other platform can easily be faked.
You can set up your own little server for MetaTrader, play it out, and you have your fake trades.
📍 Fancy Cars / Travels / Houses 📍
Showing a fancy lifestyle is another big 🚩.
All those people with fancy cars have leased or rented them for the image of being successful. It's to lure you in with false promises!
(Although trading can be very fulfilling if you are willing to put in the work!)
📍 New Setup Every Few Weeks 📍
If a channel has a new setup every few weeks, this is only made for scamming new traders, not to have a setup that works.
(Think about it, if you have a setup that works, why would you change?)
Explore their profile, look for this pattern, and sometimes you will find it. Simple step :)
📍 Selling Courses / Mentorship 📍
You can learn all of trading for free.
TradingView has a very nice paper trading feature that you can use and a very unique ideas section where you can find all the information you need!
Here we come to a golden rule when it comes to starting trading: NEVER buy a course or mentorship. Never! You don't need it!
(And also, TradingView's paper trading is free!)
📍 Very Basic Information Available Only 📍
Trading is hard; trading needs a lot of concepts fitting together like RR-System, Money Management, Multi-Timeframe Analysis.
If you see a social media post with 1 chart with some boxes and another picture with a money screenshot, this is 100% fake.
You need A LOT more than 1 chart and a lot more knowledge than you can ever show on even 3 charts.
📍 AI 📍
Oh, we all love AI, but I'm afraid that AI is not in the picture (yet).
Pine can't code it, and the current state of "AI" is a "guessing" game.
(AI just guesses what comes next, in the form of vectors... it's extremely complex, but it doesn't exist in trading.)
📍 Indicators 📍
Indicators are a very nice thing to have AFTER you have your strategy down, not before.
There is no indicator that works on its own; you plug it in and it makes money... that doesn't exist!
(Think about it critically: if that existed, why wouldn't we solve world hunger?)
📍 Typical Selling Point Sentences 📍
"Learn trading in 15 minutes" or "This is all you need" or "Only trade for 10 minutes a day" are the typical scam titles that you see, and with those, you know 100% they are fake.
Trading is not done in 15 minutes, trading is hard work, and trading takes a long time to learn. There are no shortcuts.
📍 Things You Can Ask Them 📍
Typically speaking, they will not answer any of these questions because they can't.
Like "How do you calculate your position size with your current RR setup?" This means they studied this, and you can be sure they didn't :)
Or "How does leverage exactly work?" and like 99.99% of the YouTubers got it wrong.
But a very nice thing to ask is a simple "Can I have a broker statement of your account?" and boom, they are gone.
🏆 Golden Rules 🏆
Never buy anything (you can learn 100% everything for free).
Ask critical questions and follow up on them.
Trading is hard; there is no 15-minute setup.
Trading can't be 100% automated.