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According to jobless claims, recession is unlikely before 2019Jobless claims indicator has been a reliable indicator of recessions. By examining a historical chart that goes back to 1960s we see a similar pattern in the behavior of claims and recessions. Every single recession the U.S. encountered in the underlying period was preceded by a rise in jobless claims. The chart above draws the quarterly jobless claims. The shaded areas are the periods of recession. The quarters that the U.S. officially got into recession in all cases were preceded by multiple quarters of rising jobless claims, and in most cases these rises are consecutive. For example, ahead of the 2008 great recession, jobless claims increased for three consecutive quarters. 2001 recession was preceded by 5 quarters of rising claims( latest 3 were consecutive) 1990-1991 recession was preceded by 8 quarters of rising claims (latest 3 were consecutive) the earlier recession have also had the same pattern. Before any recession, we had a minimum of three quarters of rising jobless claims and in one case we had 8 quarters. Having that in mind, it is highly unlikely that the U.S. will encounter an official recession soon(before 2019). Best Technician
FRED:ICSAEducation
by Technician
9
BTC Aug 1 fork: the Exodus of the Hodlers?As many of you are aware, BTC will be implementing a protocol on August 1st entitled Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 148 (BIP 148). This proposed user activated soft fork, or UASF, will implement segregated witness, or SegWit (does every crypto term have an acronym?), and ease Bitcoin's scaling limitation. However, there are many nodes that do not support SegWit, and wish to keep Bitcoin as is. If there is not enough support of BIP 148, there will likely be a hard fork and the creation of a new Bitcoin, not unlike Etherium's fork in Nov 2016. ( news.bitcoin.com Support rate of BIP 148). So what does this mean for you? Bitcoin will be an unstable store of value at and around August 1st on many exchanges and in many non-upgraded wallets. Some exchanges may close transactions with Bitcoin or even with many altcoins for a short time. There will be a high risk of losing funds if they are not kept in a secure wallet. "First off, be aware that a chain-split creates a high-risk situation. There is a chance that some sort of cyber-battle will break out between the two camps, perhaps even escalating to the point where bitcoin’s exchange rate(s) drops sharply, possibly to zero. Make absolutely sure you are not holding more value in bitcoin than what you are willing to lose. If you do decide to hold onto your bitcoins, the single most important piece of advice is this: Ensure that you control your own private keys. If you are storing your bitcoins on an exchange, in a custodial wallet like Coinbase, Circle or Xapo, or on any other service that holds your private keys for you, you may or may not eventually receive coins on both ends of the chain. In fact, if these kinds of services aren’t well-prepared, there could be scenarios where you don’t get any coins at all. So far, no exchanges have given any kind of guarantee. So if you’re using any of these kinds of services to store your bitcoins, you need to create your own wallet. Send your bitcoins to one or several Bitcoin addresses in this new wallet. This wallet now holds your private keys." (bitcoinmagazine.com) Of course, a simpler solution would be to sell your Bitcoin, which isn't very emotionally difficult to do during a correction, or if you are a day/trend trader. For this reason, I expect a mass exodus of money from the market as August 1st approaches. This final bounce may be the time to make your egress. If you are hodling, take the proper precautions detailed in the bitcoin magazine article below. To recap "1. Control your private keys. 2. To be on the safe side, avoid any transactions a day or two before, on, and shortly after August 1st. (How “shortly after” depends on what happens; it could take weeks.) 3. If there are still two (or more) chains when the dust settles, split your coins into different wallets." If you follow these three steps, your transition into the new Bitcoin environment should be seamless. What it means for the technical ~ steemit.com (there should be an 'at' sign but tradingview does not support that symbol) getdfs/btc-uasf-in-aug-2017-understand-bip148-and-protect-your-money What it means for the hodler/trader ~ bitcoinmagazine.com Poloniex statement ~ poloniex.com Bittrex statement ~ support.bittrex.com Gdax statement ~ www.coindesk.com
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Kelly_John
3
To Indicator or Not To Indicator? - Eduseries Week 2"I trade like I bath" - the words of a self-created guru trader who wanted to convince me to join his "Premium Group" a while back. Although by his very nature the gentleman was a scammer and made more money through "teaching", those words lead me on a path which to a greater level of certainty in my own trading and analysis. (By the time we had that interaction I had spent 100s of hours trying to decode the secret "code" and logic in the markets through the use of countless mathematical indicators.) It is with that experience that I add to the Indicator vs naked chart debate . Firstly I believe that majority of strategies work( indicator or no indicator) and I have found that human beings have certain behavioral traits that if worked on correctly, will result in success. Dont get me wrong, yes there is propaganda and some illogical methods of analysis and yes there are some people who are not meant to be traders, but I have found that the reason 90% of traders I have met have changed their strategies is due to lack of understanding, psychological factors etc. ("We'll talk about this some other time") but NOT whether the method works or not. Back to topic,does trading with or without an indicator give anyone anyone an advantage? 1. I have found that mathematical indicators have their flaws in that they lag price action and are not effective as market timing tools. However, I believe and I have discovered that if used as a confirmation tools for a proper price action trading plan (Notice I didn't say candlestick patterns, more on this later), they can give a trader an edge so to speak and give an additional level of confidence in trade selection if ofcourse the indicator is being interpreted in the manner originally intended. 2. I have also found that price action in itself, not knowing different candlestick patterns or chart patterns but a proper understanding of the ebb and flow of the market and the psychology of majority of traders is enough on its own. Simply understanding why the price of something is going up and down i (I refer you to your high school economics textbook for this) coupled with the ability to leave your emotions at the door is enough to make money consistently. More and more traders don't realise that the key to understanding price movement is in exactly the manner in which they buy groceries (I promise to write about this later too :)). What's the conclusion? A proper understanding of price action before using indicators is essential for the success of any trader, without an understanding of price the trader is lead into believing that indicators can predict price action while the indicator in itself is just a mathematical formula based on previous data which in my opinion is the quickest way to burn through your capital. I recommend anyone struggling with understanding the business of trading to take a step back; (refer to the very first thing taught in econ101 and learn how the market auction system works (many books exist Those who call themselves "diehards" and are adamant that indicators are the best tools to have and one can use them with only an understanding of price action (NOT candlesticks); I have one request, please remove the candles off your charts and send me your analysis based on your magic 8ball indicator stochastic rainbow MACD TDI EMA strategy. My Name is Mutondi , price action trader; I sometimes use an indicator (MA) but I can do just fine W/O.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mutondi
4
Trading the News: How Dueling Speeches Affected the GBPUSDJust wanted to document how tracking the news should be an important part of EVERY trader's practice... Take for example, an hourly chart of this week's GBPUSD... In particular, notice how this week's MOST significant price action corresponds with two major speeches by UK officials. In the first instance, BoE governor Mark Carney delivered a "dovish" speech where the headline message was "no rate hikes yet" www.bloomberg.com However, no less than 24 hours later, Chief Economist and UK-MPC Andy Haldane delivered a "hawkish" speech which put him directly at odds with Carney. www.theguardian.com Both speeches initiated a 100pips movement (1st decline, then rally) in a relatively short period... So, the lesson to take from this moment...? Stay on top of your news..!!! (For those who don't know: I highly recommend ForexFactory as a great source of fundamental announcements as well as breaking news...) Good Luck and Always Trade Mindfully...! ...$B...
Education
by DollarBuddha
1
Over thinking is your enemySome analysts use many indicators to help them for decisions making. Some are not. It depends how much experience they have in this field. When I was learning civil engineering, my lecturer told all his students to remember this rule. "We don't need calculators or portable computers to to calculate bending moment when we are on site, the foremen and labours will laugh at us." It is quite true in technical analysis as well. One of my students told me 2662.HK is a healthy stock, and I asked her why? She said that she could not use a software or a smartphone APP to draw trend lines, Fibonacci ratio, and she must need some indicators like MACD, so she could not tell me immediately. When you see this graph, you don't need any tools, all you need to mind read and use your fingers to measure when you have no computer with you. You may spot that there is another consolidation area at somewhere around $2.6. By this simple method, your expected target will be around $4.1.
2Education
by SoloTraderAU
Civilian Employment to Population Ratio -great toolThe head and shoulders formation is a classic sell setup that traders are familiar with. A close below the neck line is a sell signal for traders. Well, as you can see this was a signal of an economic downturn and it predicted it in the summer before the market crash in the fall. This would have alerted people to prepare for the impending doom and for traders to sell short like Dr. Michael Burry of Scion Capital did with his hedge fund. The market low was set in the spring but the employment low occurred later. The previous lows set in 1961 and 1975 gave an angled level of support at which the recent 2011 low was set. We are now at civilian employment to population ratio levels of 1985! Let that sink in, 1985. This was a severe economic crash that we have yet to recover from. This data is from 1948 until 2017. I wish it started with data before the crash of 1929. What pattern was given then to signal a crash? I think this is a chart to keep an eye on every now and again.
FRED:EMRATIOEducation
by oakman
1
$POP - United States Population Trends - Using TradingView DataGeneral education: Plotting fundamental data. POP gives you the population data for the United States. You can put the scale to log-scale so you view the same percentage changes in the data across the data series. What you can see here is a slightly different view. The pace of growth from 1975-1986 continued forward until today shows were are on that same pace of 11% growth over 11 years. Prior to 1975 the pace was running at 13% over 11 years. And the 11 years before that it was 22%. And the big post-WWII population growth was 22% over 11 years. The net of it all is that the population is up 50% since 1975, or 46 years, which is roughly 1% per year. These are good numbers to have at your fingertips for long term calculations. Best, Tim 9:26AM EST 5/12/2017
FRED:POPEducation
by timwest
3
When Continuing Claims for Unemployment Bottoms, S&P500 RalliesThe market is always worrying about various data series and the impact on the stock market. Today, this one was inspired by a Tweet by someone I follow on Twitter that I respect. The point of this chart is to show you the batting average of "What Happens When The Unemployment Claims Bottoms Out"? Technically, we don't know this is the bottom yet, but you can see here that if the forecast is for the next 6 months (a useful time horizon) then the odds of an up market are not just 50% but up to 75% chance. See for yourself and note that the market is more than just one statistic, particularly the Unemployment Claims. The market can be impacted by many variables, but certainly people working and not sitting around collecting insurance, would be a good sign for the economy overall. Either way - my lesson for today is "Don't just take what anyone says for granted." Go research it for yourself here at Tradingview.com Cheers, Tim West May 11, 2017 10:52AM EST
FX:SPX500Education
by timwest
2
Just a post for new traders to read =) Worth a read, don't be lazy lol =D Disclaimer: I do not benefit from any of these books or from amazon.com -The Risk of Trading: Mastering the Most Important Element in Financial Speculation (Wiley Trading) -Global Macro Trading: Profiting in a New World Economy (Bloomberg Financial) -The Psychology of the Foreign Exchange Market (Wiley Trading) -Day Trading Forex with S&R Zones - Forex Trading System (Rough editing on this book but its clear concise and straight to the point) -Hedge Hogs: The Cowboy Traders Behind Wall Street's Largest Hedge Fund Disaster (just a good read on why you should never be a cowboy trader) -The Tragedy of the European Union: Disintegration or Revival? -A Three Dimensional Approach To Forex Trading - Anna Coulling -Day Trading Forex with Price Patterns - Forex Trading System - Laurentiu Damir (another rough edit but clear and concise) -Trade the Price Action - Forex Trading System - Laurentiu Damir(rough edit but clear / concise) -Trade What You See: How To Profit from Pattern Recognition (Wiley Trading) -Fibonacci Trading: How to Master the Time and Price Advantage These are just some of my choices, but overall I tend to stick to Wiley Finance/Trading Series books and Bloomberg series books. Also research trading risk management, Bloomberg / Wiley Series both have good reads on it, and on how to properly build / manage your own portfolio. The site mentioned in the post that has a free course for FX trading is babypips.com/school
CBOE_DLY:VXXLEEducation
by Daniel.B
6
Non Charting Tools for Forex TradersI am listing the tools I use daily, during my trading schedule, when I trade the Forex market. I am using general descriptions in this list since I am not endorsing any particular paid service, or website. Tradingview A high quality charting platform with all the price charts and many powerful yet intuitive tools. Every single trade I take I chart it here first, marking exact entry, exit and stop loss levels. Some of my potential trades I publish, some I keep to myself. The forex chat is a great “tool” to share views on the market in real time and get other opinions to see if I missed anything. Execution Platform I see brokers as a necessary evil and use mine only to execute my trades. I don’t use its charting package, newsfeed, calendar, signals, expert advisors or anything like that. As soon as Tradingview will provide chart trading where we can select a broker of our choosing and execute our trades straight from the charts, this tool can be eliminated. Economic Calendar Even if you are a 100% technical trader and don’t take any news into account, at least you would know when major news events are happening (NFP, FOMC rate statement, etc) that could impact your trades, so you might want to stay out of the market. For traders who do take fundamentals into account, it provides you with the previous period and the expectation for the data to be released. It helps to build the picture for how events may move the markets. There are several to be found, find one that suits you. Premium News Service This is a feed of headlines that will inform you in real-time on what is happening in the markets. If a pair suddenly moves fifty pips, this news service will tell you why this is happening. The audio feed is the fastest so with urgent news you will not miss out. With un-planned news events this is essential. It’s a paid service and there are several on the market, I am not endorsing any in particular but am using one myself and I am always in the know. Market Background News Sites These are websites / financial blogs with markets news, background stories and editorial opinions that differ from the real time premium news services in that the articles are more research based and provide a deeper understanding into fundamental drivers behind the markets and how market players are positioning themselves. I usually read up on them once a day before I start trading. There are several good websites to be found. Currency Correlation Overview Pairs don’t move completely independent of each other. Trading highly correlated pairs simultaneously can increase your overall risk or eat your profits. Before entering a potential trade, I crosscheck the currency correlation of that pair with my already open trades (if any) and if its highly correlated (either positively or negatively) to one of them, I do not enter the trade. Since correlation differs per timeframe and changes over time, I use a real time online source. Position Size Calculator The difference in pips between entry and stop loss (pips at risk), your equity size and the trade risk you allow as a percentage are what you need to calculate the position size that does not exceed your risk tolerance. You can create a spreadsheet where you calculate this yourself for each trade, you can also find an online position size calculator and some brokers have this feature built into their interface. Regardless how you do it, this will be an essential tool. Forex Cheat Sheets I have created cheat sheets with overviews of all candlestick formations, basic and advanced price patterns, key Fibonacci ratios, etc. They help to quickly validate potential trading opportunities. Nowadays I hardly use them anymore, but I still have a hard copy on my desk just in case and they certainly helped me a lot as a beginning trader. I like the feeling that if I need to check a pattern, I have the information easily accessible at my fingertips.
Education
by JazzForex
42
Tutorial: Fib Extension ToolYou can use it for different things. my main use for it is to project targets based on impuls legs. not always will price follow the AB=CD target. instead it often reverses before reaching point D. This tool can help you identify alternative targets. Technically speaking the shown example of usage isn't called a fib extension but a fib expansion. you can get fib extensions if you put point A' exactly back to A. You can find the tool in your drawing toolbar by clicking the third icon and selecting "Trend-Based Fib Extension". When you click on a drawn fib extension a little options tootlbar will appear where you can customize your fib levels. Commonly used levels for expansions / extensions are: 0.382 - 0.5 - 0.618 - 0.764 - 1 - 1.272 - 1.414 - 1.5 - 1.618 - 2 Keep in mind though, it is statistically proven that Fibonacci extensions work no better at predicting where price is going to turn than any other percentage. It's more of a self-fulfilling prohecy than anything else. Like my Charts? Feel free to donate : ) BTC: 1F1jpj7X3oyKHpGJ98chr39NvpzSXuPrnC LTC: LbsfK54KWQnyELCRTg2e9vfy1R5X7Nkuwa
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by MagnusTradingGroup
8