FX Forecasting Model [TrendX_]FX Forecasting Model indicator is a forecasting tool that takes advantages of macroeconomic analysis and market surveillance to predict Exchange rate movement.
*** Customize the macro data for home country (base currency) and foreign country
USAGE
This consists of 4 editable options align with 4 Forecasting Models
TrendX Model)
TrendX Model is a type of multiple linear regression, which is a statistical method that estimates the relationship between the currency exchange rate and various macroeconomic indicators.
*** Remember the 1st thing to do is to customize the macro data for home country (base currency) and foreign country, before take any further steps.
Purchasing Power Parity (PPP Model)
The PPP model is a conceptual model of currency exchange. The model illustrates how the exchange rate between two countries’ currencies is influenced by the variations in the prices of goods and services in those countries, which depend on the inflation rate. The activity of buying and selling goods and services internationally will shift the exchange rate to balance the prices in both countries.
Interest Rate Parity (IRP Model)
Interest Rate Parity (IRP) model is a theoretical model that relates the interest rates and the exchange rates of two countries. According to IRP, the difference between the forward and spot exchange rates of two currencies should be equal to the difference between their interest rates. IRP helps traders to determine the fair value of a currency pair and compare it with the market value. If the market value deviates from the fair value, then there is a potential for arbitrage or hedging.
Combined Forecast Model (Mixed Model)
Since each model has its own advantages, many people are interested in the concept of using a mix of forecasts to get better results than any single forecast. Mix Model is a method that uses different proportions of the forecasts from three models: TrendX, PPP and IRP models. The default proportion is 0.2 for TrendX, and 0.4 for both PPP and IRP. You can change these proportions according to your liking.
CONCLUSION
FX Forecasting Model Indicator is very practical for FOREX traders who wants to make informed and rational decisions based on Macroeconomic Analysis. It can help find arbitrage opportunity in currency exchange market. Accordingly, it can also be helpful for traders to use alongside other forms of Technical Analysis.
DISCLAIMER
The results achieved in the past are not all reliable sources of what will happen in the future. There are many factors and uncertainties that can affect the outcome of any endeavor, and no one can guarantee or predict with certainty what will occur.
Therefore, you should always exercise caution and judgment when making decisions based on past performance.
Forecasting
Advanced Buy and Sell SignalsThis script for TradingView is designed for technical traders seeking a more comprehensive and discerning market analysis. The script combines buy and sell signals from multiple popular technical indicators, providing a holistic view that can be useful for short to medium-term trading strategies. It incorporates the following features:
EMA Trend Cloud:
Two Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are calculated: a fast EMA and a slow EMA.
A "cloud" is formed on the chart, changing color as the EMAs cross, indicating potential trend shifts.
Additional Indicators:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Used to identify overbought or oversold conditions.
Stochastic Oscillator: Helps determine the strength or weakness of the price.
OBV (On-Balance Volume) with EMA: Combines volume and price to show how volume might be influencing price direction.
Combined Buy and Sell Signals:
Buy and sell signals are generated based on a combination of the following criteria:
Crossings of the EMAs (indicative of trend changes).
Conditions of the RSI (identifying potential market extremes).
Crossings of the Stochastic Oscillator (indicating momentum).
Crossings of the OBV with its EMA (assessing the influence of volume on price movement).
Buy signals are indicated by green triangles below the price bars, while sell signals are indicated by red triangles above the price bars.
Alerts:
The script also includes alert conditions to notify the user when potential buy or sell signals are detected.
Application:
This script is suitable for traders who utilize technical analysis and seek to confirm their trading decisions with multiple sources of information. It is particularly useful in volatile markets, where the combination of different indicators can provide more reliable insights.
Note:
It is important to remember that no script or indicator can guarantee success in trading, and one should always consider risk and conduct thorough analysis before making trading decisions.
This script is most effective when used in conjunction with fundamental analysis and a solid understanding of the market.
FVG in MACROGuided by ICT tutoring, I created this versatile indicator to scan the FVG in MACRO time.
This indicator combines the MACRO time with the Fair value GAP (FVG) in an alternative way, showing a simple way of viewing the FVG within the MACRO time, so you can have a clearer view of which direction the MACRO is influencing
''MACRO is a delivery time frame of the interbank price in which it undergoes a series of controls and is likely to move towards liquidity.''
The user has the possibility to:
- Choose the relevant MACRO time
- Choose whether to view all FVGs in the MACROS
- Choose to view only the First FVG at each MACRO
The indicator should be used as shown by the ICT in its concepts, during the MACRO time the price can consolidate or can head towards liquidity.
The probability that the direction is correct increases with respect for the FVG, in this way it is possible to evaluate the entry zone in the FVG and the Take profit zone for Liquidity
As in the following example:
TrendFriendOverview
TrendFriend (TF) combines various technical analysis components, including trend calculations, moving averages, RSI signals, and Fair Value Gaps (FVG) detection to determine trend reversal and continuation points. The FVG feature identifies potential consolidation periods and displays mitigation levels.
Features
Trend Analysis: Utilizes short and long-term Running Moving Averages (RMA) to identify trends.
Average True Range (ATR): Plots ATR to depict market volatility.
RSI Signals: Calculates RSI and provides buy/sell signals based on RSI conditions.
Fair Value Gaps (FVG): Detects FVG patterns and offers options for customization, including dynamic FVG, mitigation levels, and auto threshold.
Usage
Buy Signals: Generated based on pullback conditions, contra-buy signals, and crossovers of specified moving averages.
Sell Signals: Generated based on pullback conditions, contra-sell signals, and crossunders of specified moving averages.
Visualization: FVG areas are visually represented on the chart, and unmitigated levels can be displayed.
Configuration
Adjustable parameters for trend periods, ATR length, RSI settings, FVG threshold, and display preferences.
Dynamic FVG detection and mitigation level visualization can be enabled/disabled.
Usage Example
Trend Analysis: Identify trends with short and long-term moving averages.
RSI Signals: Interpret RSI signals for potential reversals.
FVG Detection: Visualize Fair Value Gaps and mitigation levels on the chart.
Buy/Sell Signals: Receive alerts for buy/sell signals based on specified conditions.
Disclaimer
This Pine Script code is subject to the terms of the Mozilla Public License 2.0. Use this code at your own risk, and always conduct additional analysis before making trading decisions.
Author
Author: devoperator84
License: Mozilla Public License 2.0
ICT IPDAGuided by ICT tutoring, I create this versatile indicator "IPDA".
This indicator shows a different way of viewing the “IPDA” by calculating from START
(-20 / -40 / -60) to (+20 /+40 /+60) Days, showing the Highs and Lows of the IPDA of the Previous days and both of the subsequent ones, the levels of (-20 / -40 / -60) Days can be taken into consideration as objectives to be achieved in the range of days (+20 /+40 /+60)
The user has the possibility to:
- Choose whether to display IPDAs before and after START
- Choose to show High and Low levels
- Choose to show Prices
The indicator should be used as ICT shows in its concepts.
Example on how to evaluate a possible Start IPDA:
Example for Entry targeting IPDAs :
If something is not clear, comment below and I will reply as soon as possible.
Potential Profit at ATHUsage:
Enter how much of the particular coin you are holding within the settings area.
What this indicator does:
Grabs the current All Time High (ATH).
Uses the ATH to calculate the potential profit in percentage from the current price to ATH.
Calculates the potential profit in EUR based on the percentage in the previous calculation.
Displays the above-mentioned values on the screen as labels.
You now have a forecast of the potential profit you can make when you hodl to the ATH.
Attention: "The example uses 1 coin as default.
For a calculation of your holdings, make sure you enter the amount of the current coin you are holding"
ICT Premium/DiscountGuided by ICT mentorship and help from TraderTim and its community, I created this versatile indicator to mark a "Premium/Discount" price range.
This indicator shows the Premium and Discount Zones in an alternative way, manually setting the start of the band and automatically shows the HTF and LTF FVG present only in the set band, having a cleaning of the graph from possible other distractions, so as to be able to have a clear vision clear of the set trading range
The user has the possibility to:
- Choose the start of the interval from the graph by moving the start line
- Choose to show levels 50% - 75% - 25% of the range
- Choose the color, style and size of the lines
- Choose to display FVG LTF or HTF in range
- Choose the FVG mitigation mode
The indicator must be used as shown by the ICT in its concepts, the Premium and Discount zones are nothing more than zones where the price risks retracing, and consequently we can evaluate making entries in the Premium Zone, Sell is evaluated, in the Discoutn Zone they are evaluated as Buy, taking the opposite area as Take Profit
As in the example below:
If anything is unclear, comment below and I will get back to you as soon as possible.
How to change range:
Historical Volatility StudyThe goal of this script it to provide you an idea to forecast the future momentum by looking at historical volatility.
This chart has basically three parts.
1. Three lines are there. The multi color line represents the historical annualized volatility in terms of minimum look back period . The white line represents the historical annualized volatility in terms of medium term look back period . The green line represents the historical annualized volatility in terms of longer term look back period .
2. The back ground color has three components. Green zone is the zone where overall volatility is on the lower side. Red zone is the zone where overall volatility is on the higher side. Purple zone means fluctuating volatility.
3. The multi color line has three colors. Red color means volatility moving towards extreme low. Yellow means it is moving towards extreme high. Purple means it is in normal course of action.
This tool can be used as a confirmation tool with other studies to aid you to make better decisions. For example- look at the diagram below.
Make your thorough study before making any trading decision. Thanks.
One Setup for Life ICTGuided by ICT tutoring, I create this versatile 'One Trading Set Up For Life' indicator
This indicator shows a different way of viewing the "Highs and Lows" of Previous Sessions, drawing from the current day until 09:30 AM, the time at which the Highs and Lows of the previous day's sessions can be taken into consideration for a Reversal or for a Take profit.
Levels tested after 9.30am will be blocked so you have a good and clear view of the levels affected
Timing Session =
London: 02:00 to 05:00
New York: 9.30am to 12.30pm
Lunch: 12.30pm to 1pm
PM Session: 1.30pm to 4pm
The user has the possibility to:
- Choose to view sessions or not
- Choose to show levels from previous sessions
- Choose to show today's session levels
- Choose between 08:30 and 09:30 the starting time for the Liquidity taken
- Choose to view High and Low only from the previous day
- See both the name of the Sessions and the price of the levels
The indicator must be used as ICT shows in its concepts, the indicator takes into consideration both previous sessions and today's sessions, and the session levels can be used both for a reversal and for a possible Take Profit like the example here under
Reversal =
Possible Take Profit =
If something is not clear, comment below and I will reply as soon as possible.
KNN ATR Dual Range Predictions [SS]Excited to release this indicator!
I wanted to do a machine learning, ATR based indicator for a while, but I first had to learn about machine learning algos haha.
Now that I have created a KNN based regression methodology (shared in a previous indicator), I can finally do it!
So this is a Nearest Known Neighbor or KNN regression based indicator that uses ATR (average ranges) to predict future ranges.
It operates by calculating the move from High to Open and Open to Low and performing KNN regression to look for other, similar instances of similar movements and what followed those movements.
It provides for 2 methods of KNN regression, the traditional Cluster method (where it identifies a number of clusters within a tolerance range and averages them out), or the method of last instance (where it finds the most recent identical instance and plots the result from that).
You can toggle the parameters as you wish, including the:
a) Type of Regression
b) Number of Clusters
c) Tolerance for Clusters
Others functions:
The indicator provides for the ability to view 2 different timeframe targets. The default calculation is the current timeframe you are on. So if you are on the 1 minute, 5 minute or 1 hour, it will automatically default the primary range to this timeframe. This cannot be changed.
But it permits for a second prediction to be calculated for a timeframe you can specify. The example in the chart above is the 1 hour overlaid on the 5 minute chart.
You can see how the model is performing in the statistics table. The statistics table can be removed as well if you don't want it overlaid on your chart.
You can also toggle off and on the various ranges. IF you only want to visualize 1 hour levels on a 5 minute chart, you can toggle off the bands and just view the higher tf data. Inversely, if you only want the current timeframe data and not the higher tf data, you can toggle the higher tf data off as well.
General Use Tips:
Some general use tips include:
🎯The default settings are appropriate for most common tickers. Because this is performing an autoregression on itself, the parameters tend to be more tight vs. performing dual correlation between two separate tickers which are sizably different in scale (which would require a higher tolerance).
Here is an example of YM1!, which is a sizably larger ticker, however it is performing well with the current settings.
🎯 If you get not great results from your ranges or an error in the correlation table, something like this:
It means the parameters are too tight for what you want to do and it is having trouble identifying other, similar cases (in this case, the lookback length was significantly shortened). The first step is to:
a) Expand your lookback range (up to 500 is usually sufficient). This should resolve most issues in most cases. If not:
b) If you are using the Cluster method, try broadening your cluster tolerance by 0.5 increments.
Between those two implementations, you should get a functional model. And it actually honestly hasn't happened to me in general use, I had to force that example by significantly shortening the lookback period.
Concluding Remarks
And that's pretty much the indicator.
I hope you enjoy it! I was really excited to be finally able to do it, like I said I attempted to do this for a while but needed to research the whole KNN process and how its performed.
Enjoy and leave your comments and questions below!
Data from dataThe "Data from Data" indicator, developed by OmegaTools, is a sophisticated and versatile tool designed to offer a nuanced analysis of various market dynamics, catering to traders and investors seeking a comprehensive understanding of price movements considering a large amount of data and variables.
The uses of this indicator are nonconventional. You can use the indicator as a stand-alone tool on the chart, hiding the current symbol price data, to be able to analyze the price action with the Semaphore visualization method, you can also hide the indicator and choose from your favorite indicators and oscillator one of the data output as a source to have additional insight on the asset.
The last use of this indicator, which depends on the X Value that you set in the settings, is to have a possible scenario for the future outcomes of the markets. Remember that there is no tool that can really predict what the market will do in the future, this tool applies a large amount of formulas to use past prices as an indication that aims to be as close as possible to the future prices. The X Value not only changes the lookback of the formulas but also changes the number of future scenarios that the indicator will plot on the chart.
Key Features:
1. Rate of Change Analysis:
The indicator evaluates the rate of change variations in closing prices, providing insights into the current rate of change and expected rate of change variation.
2. Momentum Analysis:
Momentum is analyzed through calculations involving simple moving averages, offering expected values derived from momentum and momentum variation.
3. High/Low Variation:
The expected market behavior is assessed based on the average variation between high and low prices, contributing to a more holistic analysis.
4. Liquidity Targets:
Liquidity targets can be found by analyzing the highs and lows in the direction of the current fair price.
5. Regression Sequence:
Linear regression analysis is applied to closing prices, assessing momentum and providing expected values based on regression sequences.
6. Volume Presence:
The indicator evaluates the Rate of Change (ROC) by volume presence, offering insights into price movements influenced by trading volume.
7. Liquidity Grabs:
Expected market behavior is determined based on liquidity grabs, considering both current and historical price levels.
8. Fair Value Analysis:
Expected values are derived from fair value closes and fair value highs and lows, contributing to a more nuanced analysis of market conditions.
9. STT (Sequential Trend Test):
The Sequential Trend Test is employed to analyze market trends, providing expected values for a more informed decision-making process.
Visualization:
The indicator shows a "Semaphore" on the chart, visually representing all of the data extrapolated from the script. The visualization can be more minimalistic or more complex, to let the user decide that, in the settings, it's possible to decide if to show all of the data or only the average.
Additionally, the user can choose to display bars on the chart, that visualize the standard high and low of the price data, with the difference between the expected forecasted value and the actual closing price.
My suggestion is to try to change the colors of the data to fit best your eye and the data that you find more useful, and also to try to change some parameters from circle to line as a visualization method to catch with more ease some price patterns.
Error Analysis:
The indicator provides a detailed error analysis, including historical error, average error, and present error. This information is presented in a user-friendly table for quick reference. This table can be used to analyze the margin of error of the expected future price.
Backtest Strategy Optimizer Adapter - Supertrend ExampleSample Code
This is a sample code for my Backtest Strategy Optimizer Adapter library.
You can find the library at:
Backtest Strategy Optimizer Tester
With this indicator, you will be able to run one or multiple backtests with different variables (combinations). For example, you can run dozens of backtests of Supertrend at once with an increment factor of 0.1, or whatever you prefer. This way, you can easily grab the most profitable settings and use them in your strategy. The chart above shows different color plots, each indicating a profit backtest equal to tradingview backtesting system. This code uses my backtest library, available in my profile.
Below the code you should edit yourself
You can use ChatGPT or write a python script to autogenerate code for you.
// #################################################################
// # ENTRIES AND EXITS
// #################################################################
// You can use the link and code in the description to create
// your code for the desired number of entries / exits.
// #################################################################
// AUTO GENERATED CODE
// ▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼▼
= ti.supertrend(10, 0.1)
= ti.supertrend(10, 0.2)
= ti.supertrend(10, 0.3)
= ti.supertrend(10, 0.4)
// 005 etc...
pnl_001 = backtest.profit(date_start, date_end, entry_001, exit_001)
pnl_002 = backtest.profit(date_start, date_end, entry_002, exit_002)
pnl_003 = backtest.profit(date_start, date_end, entry_003, exit_003)
pnl_004 = backtest.profit(date_start, date_end, entry_004, exit_004)
plot(pnl_001, title='0.1', color=backtest.color(001))
plot(pnl_002, title='0.2', color=backtest.color(002))
plot(pnl_003, title='0.3', color=backtest.color(003))
plot(pnl_004, title='0.4', color=backtest.color(004))
// Make sure you set the correct array size.
// The amount of tests + 1 (e.g. 4 tests you set it to 5)
var results_list = array.new_string(5)
if (ta.change(pnl_001))
array.set(results_list, 0, str.tostring(pnl_001) + '|0.1')
if (ta.change(pnl_002))
array.set(results_list, 1, str.tostring(pnl_002) + '|0.2')
if (ta.change(pnl_003))
array.set(results_list, 2, str.tostring(pnl_003) + '|0.3')
if (ta.change(pnl_004))
array.set(results_list, 3, str.tostring(pnl_004) + '|0.4')
// ▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲
// AUTO GENERATED CODE
// #################################################################
ADR % RangesThis indicator is designed to visually represent percentage lines from the open of the day. The % amount is determined by X amount of the last days to create an average...or Average Daily Range (ADR).
1. ADR Percentage Lines: The core function of the script is to apply lines to the chart that represent specific percentage changes from the daily open. It first calculates the average over X amount of days and then displays two lines that are 1/3rd of that average. One line goes above the other line goes below. The other two lines are the full "range" of the average. These lines can act as boundaries or targets to know how an asset has moved recently. *Past performance is not indicative of current or future results.
The calculation for ADR is:
Step 1. Calculate Today's Range = DailyHigh - DailyLow
Step 2. Store this average after the day has completed
Step 3. Sum all day's ranges
Step 4. Divide by total number of days
Step 5. Draw on chart
2. Customizable Inputs: Users have the flexibility to customize the script through various inputs. This includes the option to display lines only for the current trading day (`todayonly`), and to select which lines are displayed. The user can also opt to show a table the displays the total range of previous days and the average range of those previous days.
3. No Secondary Timeframe: The ADR is computed based on whatever timeframe the chart is and does not reference secondary periods. Therefore the script cannot be used on charts greater than daily.
This script is can be used by all traders for any market. The trader might have to adjust the "X" number of days back to compute a historical average. Maybe they only want to know the average over the past week (5 days) or maybe the past month (20 days).
[KVA]Body Percentage Counter This indicator presents a comprehensive view of the historical candle data within user-defined body percentage ranges. Each column represents a specific body size percentage threshold, starting from as low as 0.01% and extending up to 20%.
The rows categorize candles by their closing and opening price differences, effectively sorting them into green (bullish) and red (bearish) candles based on whether they closed higher or lower than their opening prices.
First Row of the table is the bu
For developers, this table can be immensely useful in determining stop-loss ranges. By analyzing the frequency of candles that fall within certain body percentage ranges, developers can better understand where to set stop-loss orders. For instance, if a developer notices a high frequency of candles with body sizes within a specific percentage range, they may choose to set their stop-loss orders outside of this range to avoid being stopped out by normal market fluctuations.
Moreover, the indicator can be used to:
Volatility Assessment : The indicator can be used to gauge market volatility. Smaller bodies may indicate consolidation periods, while larger bodies might suggest more volatile market conditions.
Optimize Trading Strategies : Adjust entry and exit points based on the prevalence of certain candle sizes.
Risk Management : Determine the commonality of price movements within a certain range to better manage risks.
Backtesting : Use historical data to backtest how different stop-loss ranges would have performed in the past.
Comparative Analysis : Traders can compare the frequency of different body sizes over a selected period, providing insights into how the market is evolving.
Educational Use : For new traders, the indicator can serve as an educational tool to understand the implications of candlestick sizes and their relationship with market dynamics
The data provided in this output can guide developers to make more informed decisions about where to place stop-loss orders, potentially increasing the effectiveness of their trading algorithms or manual trading strategies.
The output of the " Body Percentage Counter" indicator is organized into a table format, which can be broken down as follows:
Header (First Row) : This row lists the body percentage thresholds used to categorize the candles. It starts from 0.01% and increases incrementally to 20%. These thresholds are likely set by the user and represent the range of candle body sizes as a percentage of the total candle size.
Green Candle Count (Second Row) : This row displays the count of green candles—candles where the close price is higher than the open price—that fall within each body percentage threshold. For example, under the column "0.01", the number 25 indicates there are 25 green candles whose body size is 0.01% of the total candle size.
Red Candle Count (Third Row) : This row shows the count of red candles—candles where the close price is lower than the open price—for each body percentage threshold. The numbers in this row reflect the number of red candles that match the body percentage criteria in the corresponding column.
Total Candle Count (Fourth Row) : This row sums the counts of both green and red candles for each body percentage threshold, providing a total count of candles that have a body size within the specific range. For instance, if under "0.01" the green count is 25 and the red count is 26, then the total would be 51.
This organized data representation allows users to quickly assess the distribution of candle body sizes over a historical period, which is especially useful for determining the frequency of price movements that are significant enough to consider for stop-loss settings or other trade management decisions.
Time-itTime-it = Time based indicator
The Time-it indicator parses data by the day of week. Every tradeable instrument has its own personality. Some are more volatile on Mondays, and some are more bullish / bearish on Fridays or any day in between. The key metrics Time-it parses is range, open, high, low, close and +volume-.
The Time-it parsed data is printed in a table format. The table, position, size & color and text color & size can be changed to your preference. Each column parsed data is the last 10 which is numbered 0-9 which refers to the number of the selected day bars ago. For example: if Monday is chosen, 0 is the last closed Monday bar and 9 is the last closed Monday 9 Monday bars ago.
Range = measures the range between high and low for the day.
Open = is the opening price for the day.
High = is the high price for the day.
Low = is the low price for the day.
Close = is the closing price for the day.
+volume- = is the positive or negative volume for the day.
Default settings:
*Represents a how to use tooltip*
Source = ohlc4
* The source used for MA
MA length = 20
* The moving average used
Day bar color on / off
* checked on / unchecked off
Monday = blue
Tuesday = yellow
Wednesday = purple
Thursday = orange
Friday = white
Saturday = red
Sunday = green
Day M, T, W, TH, F, ST, SN.
* Parsed data for the day of week tables
Table, position, size & color:
Top, middle, bottom, left, center, right
* Table position on the chart.
Frame width & border width = 1
Text color and text size
Border color and frame color
Decimal place = 0
* example: use 0 for a round number, use 4 for Forex
*** The Time-it indicator uses parts and/or pieces of code from "Tradingview Up/Down Volume" and "Tradingview Financials on Chart".
Trend Line XrossTrend Line Xross (TLX) Uses User Input Points to draw trendlines and displays the exact intersection point of those trendlines.
This is the public indicator of the practical application for this intersection method included in my entry for Pinefest #1.
To determine the exact intersection point I am using the y-intercept method as seen below.
The code is notated for more information on the technical workings.
One difference to note between this version and the pinefest version is that I had to change the line drawings to use bar_index values so that I can use line.get_price() to grab the current value of the line to make alerts from.
Additionally, there are alerts built-in to this version for every type of cross on all of the visible lines.
Enjoy!
Intersection PointThis publication focusses at the intersection of 2 lines, and a trend estimation derived from a comparison of Intersection Point value against current price value.
The formula to calculate the Intersection Point (IP) is:
change1 = ta.change (valueLine1)
change2 = ta.change (valueLine2)
sf = (valueLine2 - valueLine1 ) / (change1 - change2)
I = valueLine1 + change1 * sf
🔶 USAGE
🔹 Future / Past Intersection
The position where 2 lines would intersect in the future is shown here by extending both lines and a yellow small line to indicate its location:
Of course this can change easily when price changes.
If "Back" is enabled, the IP in history can be seen:
The yellow line which indicates the IP is only visible when it is not further located then +/- 500 bars from current bar.
If this point is further away, lines towards the IP still will be visible (max 500 bars further) without the IP.
🔹 Trend
The calculated intersection price is compared with the latest close and used for estimating the trend direction.
When close is above the intersection price (I), this is an indication the market is trending up, if close is below I, this would indicate the market is trending down.
The included bands can be useful for entry/SL/TP,...
🔶 DETAILS
🔹 Map.new()
All values are put in a map.new() with the function value()
The latest Intersection is also placed in this map with the function addLastIntersectValue() and retrieved at the last bar (right top)
🔹 Intersection Point Line
The intersection price can be made visible by enabling "Intersection Price" in SETTINGS -> STYLE. To ensure lines aren't drawn all over the place, this value is limited to maximum high + 200 days-ATR and minimum low - 200 days-ATR.
🔶 SETTINGS
🔹 Choose the value for both lines :
Type : choose between
• open, high, low, close,
• SMA, EMA, HullMA, WMA, VWMA, DEMA, TEMA
• The Length setting sets 1 of these Moving Averages when chosen
• src 1 -> You can pick an external source here
🔹 Length Intersection Line : Max length of line:
Intersection Line will update untillthe amount of bars reach the "Length Intersection Line"
💜 PURPLE BARS 😈
• Since TradingView has chosen to give away our precious Purple coloured Wizard Badge, bars are coloured purple 😊😉
Ultimate Seasonality Indicator [SS]Hello everyone,
This is my seasonality indicator. I have been working on it for like 2 months, so hope you like it!
What it does?
The Ultimate Seasonality indicator is designed to provide you, the trader, an in-depth look at seasonality. The indicator gives you the ability to do the following functions:
View the most bearish and bullish months over a user defined amount of years back.
View the average daily change for each respective months over a user defined amount of years back.
See the most closely correlated month to the current month to give potential insights of likely trend.
Plot out areas of High and Low Seasonality.
Create a manual seasonal forecast model by selecting the desired month you would like to model the current month data after.
Have the indicator develop an autoregressive seasonal model based on seasonally lagged variables, using principles of machine learning.
I will go over these functions 1 by 1, its a whopper of an indicator so I will try to be as clear and concise as possible.
Viewing Bullish vs Bearish Months, Average Daily Change & Correlation to Current Month
The indicator will break down the average change, as well as the number of bullish and bearish days by month. See the image below as an example:
In the table to the right, you will see a breakdown of each month over the past 3 years.
In the first column, you will see the average daily change. A negative value, means it was a particularly bearish month, a positive value means it was a particularly bullish month.
The next column over shows the correlation to the current dataset. How this works is the indicator takes the size of the monthly data for each month, and compares it to the last X number of days up until the last trading day. It will then perform a correlation assessment to see how closely similar the past X number of trading days are to the various monthly data.
The last 2 columns break down the number of Bullish and Bearish days, so you can see how many red vs green candles happened in each respective month over your set timeframe. In the example above, it is over the pats 3 years.
Plot areas of High and Low Seasonality
In the chart above, you will see red and green highlighted zones.
Red represents areas of HIGH Seasonality .
Green represents areas of LOW Seasonality .
For this function, seasonality is measured by the autocorrelation function at various lags (12 lags). When there is an average autocorrelation of greater than 0.85 across all seasonal lags, it is considered likely the result of high seasonality/trend.
If the lag is less than or equal to 0.05, it is indicative of very low seasonality, as there is no predominate trend that can be found by the autocorrelation functions over the seasonally lagged variables.
Create Manual Seasonal Forecasts
If you find a month that has a particularly high correlation to the current month, you can have the indicator create a seasonal model from this month, and fit it onto the current dataset (past X days of trading).
If we look at the example below:
We can see that the most similar month to the current data is September. So, we can ask the indicator to create a seasonal forecast model from only September data and fit it to our current month. This is the result:
You will see, using September data, our most likely close price for this month is 450 and our model is y= 1.4305x + -171.67.
We can accept the 450 value but we can use the equation to model the data ourselves manually.
For example, say we have a target price on the month of 455 based on our own analysis. We can calculate the likely close price, should this target be reached, by substituting this target for x. So y = 1.4305x + -171.67 becomes
y = 1.4305(455) +- 171.67
y = 479.20
So the likely close price would be 479.20. No likely, and thus its not likely we are to see 455.
HOWEVER, in this current example, the model is far too statistically insignificant to be used. We can see the correlation is only 0.21 and the R squared is 0.04. Not a model you would want to use!
You want to see a correlation of at least 0.5 or higher and an R2 of 0.5 or higher.
We can improve the accuracy by reducing the number of years we look back. This is what happens when we reduce the lookback years to 1:
You can see reducing to 1 year gives December as the most similar month. However, our R2 value is still far too low to really rely on this data whole-heartedly. But it is a good reference point.
Automatic Autoregressive Model
So this is my first attempt at using some machine learning principles to guide statistical analysis.
In the main chart above, you will see the indicator making an autoregressive model of seasonally lagged variables. It does this in steps. The steps include:
1) Differencing the data over 12, seasonally lagged variables.
2) Determining stationarity using DF test.
3) Determining the highest, autocorrelated lags that fall within a significant stationary result.
4) Creating a quadratic model of the two identified lags that best represents a stationary model with a high autocorrelation.
What are seasonally lagged variables?
Seasonally lagged variables are variables that represent trading months. So a lag of 25 would be 1 month, 50, 2 months, 75, 3 months, etc.
When it displays this model, it will show us what the results of the t-statistic are for the DF test, whether the data is stationary, and the result of the autocorrelation assessment.
It will then display the model detail in the tip table, which includes the equation, the current lags being used, the R2 and the correlation value.
Concluding Remarks
That's the indicator in a nutshell!
Hope you like it!
One final thing, you MUST have your chart set to daily, otherwise you will get a runtime error. This can ONLY be used on the daily timeframe!
Feel free to leave your questions, comments and suggestions below.
Note:
My "ultimate" indicators are made to give the functionality of multiple indicators in one. If you like this one, you may like some of my others:
Ultimate P&L Indicator
Ultimate Customizable EMA/SMA
Thanks for checking out the indicator!
K`s Extreme DurationExtreme duration uses a special combination of the RSI and its relative position to deliver a reversal signal.
The following are the conditions to generate signals:
* Bullish signal: The current 8-period RSI is below 50 and above 35 while the previous 5 RSI's are below 35.
* Bearish signal: The current 8-period RSI is above 50 and below 65 while the previous 5 RSI's are above 65.
Machine Learning: Anchored Gaussian Process Regression [LuxAlgo]Machine Learning: Anchored Gaussian Process Regression is an anchored version of Machine Learning: Gaussian Process Regression .
It implements Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), a popular machine-learning method capable of estimating underlying trends in prices as well as forecasting them. Users can set a Training Window by choosing 2 points. GPR will be calculated for the data between these 2 points.
Do remember that forecasting trends in the market is challenging, do not use this tool as a standalone for your trading decisions.
🔶 USAGE
When adding the indicator to the chart, users will be prompted to select a starting and ending point for the calculations, click on your chart to select those points.
Start & end point are named 'Anchor 1' & 'Anchor 2', the Training Window is located between these 2 points. Once both points are positioned, the Training Window is set, whereafter the Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) is calculated using data between both Anchors .
The blue line is the GPR fit, the red line is the GPR prediction, derived from data between the Training Window .
Two user settings controlling the trend estimate are available, Smooth and Sigma.
Smooth determines the smoothness of our estimate, with higher values returning smoother results suitable for longer-term trend estimates.
Sigma controls the amplitude of the forecast, with values closer to 0 returning results with a higher amplitude.
One of the advantages of the anchoring process is the ability for the user to evaluate the accuracy of forecasts and further understand how settings affect their accuracy.
The publication also shows the mean average (faint silver line), which indicates the average of the prices within the calculation window (between the anchors). This can be used as a reference point for the forecast, seeing how it deviates from the training window average.
🔶 DETAILS
🔹 Limited Training Window
The Training Window is limited due to matrix.new() limitations in size.
When the 2 points are too far from each other (as in the latter example), the line will end at the maximum limit, without giving a size error.
The red forecasted line is always given priority.
🔹 Positioning Anchors
Typically Anchor 1 is located further in history than Anchor 2 , however, placing Anchor 2 before Anchor 1 is perfectly possibly, and won't give issues.
🔶 SETTINGS
Anchor 1 / Anchor 2: both points will form the Training Window .
Forecasting Length: Forecasting horizon, determines how many bars in the 'future' are forecasted.
Smooth: Controls the degree of smoothness of the model fit.
Sigma: Noise variance. Controls the amplitude of the forecast, lower values will make it more sensitive to outliers.
Expected Move by Option's Implied Volatility Symbols: EAT - GBDC
This script plots boxes to reflect weekly, monthly and yearly expected moves based on "At The Money" put and call option's implied volatility.
Symbols in range: This script will display Expected Move data for Symbols within the range of EAT-GDBC in alphabetical order.
Weekly Updates: Each weekend, the script is updated with fresh expected move data, a job that takes place every Saturday following the close of the markets on Friday.
In the provided script, several boxes are created and plotted on a price chart to represent the expected price moves for various timeframes.
These boxes serve as visual indicators to help traders and analysts understand the expected price volatility.
Definition of Expected Move: Expected Move refers to the anticipated range within which the price of an underlying asset is expected to move over a specific time frame, based on the current implied volatility of its options. Calculation: Expected Move is typically calculated by taking the current stock price and applying a multiple of the implied volatility. The most commonly used multiple is the one-standard-deviation move, which encompasses approximately 68% of potential price outcomes.
Example: Suppose a stock is trading at $100, and the implied volatility of its options is 20%. The one-standard-deviation expected move would be $100 * 0.20 = $20.
This suggests that there is a 68% probability that the stock's price will stay within a range of $80 to $120 over the specified time frame. Usage: Traders and investors use the expected move as a guideline for setting trading strategies and managing risk. It helps them gauge the potential price swings and make informed decisions about buying or selling options. There is a 68% chance that the underlying asset stock or ETF price will be within the boxed area at option expiry. The data on this script is updating weekly at the close of Friday, calculating the implied volatility for the week/month/year based on the "at the money" put and call options with the relevant expiry.
In summary, implied volatility reflects market expectations about future price volatility, especially in the context of options. Expected Move is a practical application of implied volatility, helping traders estimate the likely price range for an asset over a given period. Both concepts play a vital role in assessing risk and devising trading strategies in the options and stock markets.
Expected Move by Option's Implied Volatility Symbols: CLFD-EARN This script plots boxes to reflect weekly, monthly and yearly expected moves based on "At The Money" put and call option's implied volatility.
Symbols in range: This script will display Expected Move data for Symbols within the range of CLFD - EARN in alphabetical order.
Weekly Updates: Each weekend, the script is updated with fresh expected move data, a job that takes place every Saturday following the close of the markets on Friday.
In the provided script, several boxes are created and plotted on a price chart to represent the expected price moves for various timeframes.
These boxes serve as visual indicators to help traders and analysts understand the expected price volatility.
Definition of Expected Move: Expected Move refers to the anticipated range within which the price of an underlying asset is expected to move over a specific time frame, based on the current implied volatility of its options. Calculation: Expected Move is typically calculated by taking the current stock price and applying a multiple of the implied volatility. The most commonly used multiple is the one-standard-deviation move, which encompasses approximately 68% of potential price outcomes.
Example: Suppose a stock is trading at $100, and the implied volatility of its options is 20%. The one-standard-deviation expected move would be $100 * 0.20 = $20.
This suggests that there is a 68% probability that the stock's price will stay within a range of $80 to $120 over the specified time frame. Usage: Traders and investors use the expected move as a guideline for setting trading strategies and managing risk. It helps them gauge the potential price swings and make informed decisions about buying or selling options. There is a 68% chance that the underlying asset stock or ETF price will be within the boxed area at option expiry. The data on this script is updating weekly at the close of Friday, calculating the implied volatility for the week/month/year based on the "at the money" put and call options with the relevant expiry.
In summary, implied volatility reflects market expectations about future price volatility, especially in the context of options. Expected Move is a practical application of implied volatility, helping traders estimate the likely price range for an asset over a given period. Both concepts play a vital role in assessing risk and devising trading strategies in the options and stock markets.
Expected Move by Option's Implied Volatility Symbols: B - CLF
This script plots boxes to reflect weekly, monthly and yearly expected moves based on "At The Money" put and call option's implied volatility.
Symbols in range: This script will display Expected Move data for Symbols within the range of B - CLF in alphabetical order.
Weekly Updates: Each weekend, the script is updated with fresh expected move data, a job that takes place every Saturday following the close of the markets on Friday.
In the provided script, several boxes are created and plotted on a price chart to represent the expected price moves for various timeframes.
These boxes serve as visual indicators to help traders and analysts understand the expected price volatility.
Definition of Expected Move: Expected Move refers to the anticipated range within which the price of an underlying asset is expected to move over a specific time frame, based on the current implied volatility of its options. Calculation: Expected Move is typically calculated by taking the current stock price and applying a multiple of the implied volatility. The most commonly used multiple is the one-standard-deviation move, which encompasses approximately 68% of potential price outcomes.
Example: Suppose a stock is trading at $100, and the implied volatility of its options is 20%. The one-standard-deviation expected move would be $100 * 0.20 = $20.
This suggests that there is a 68% probability that the stock's price will stay within a range of $80 to $120 over the specified time frame. Usage: Traders and investors use the expected move as a guideline for setting trading strategies and managing risk. It helps them gauge the potential price swings and make informed decisions about buying or selling options. There is a 68% chance that the underlying asset stock or ETF price will be within the boxed area at option expiry. The data on this script is updating weekly at the close of Friday, calculating the implied volatility for the week/month/year based on the "at the money" put and call options with the relevant expiry.
In summary, implied volatility reflects market expectations about future price volatility, especially in the context of options. Expected Move is a practical application of implied volatility, helping traders estimate the likely price range for an asset over a given period. Both concepts play a vital role in assessing risk and devising trading strategies in the options and stock markets.
