Volume-Based Reversal and Breakout [The_lurker]Indicator Overview:
The "Volume-Based Reversal and Breakout Indicator" is designed for use on the TradingView platform. Its primary function is to identify potential reversal candles using volume and price criteria and to mark significant breakout points. This tool is particularly valuable for traders who incorporate reversal patterns and volume analysis in their trading strategies.
Detailed Functionality:
Customizable Label Color:
Traders can choose the color of the labels that mark breakout points, allowing for personalization and better visibility on different chart backgrounds.
Volume Multiplier Input:
Users can set a 'Volume Multiplier' to define what constitutes significant trading volume. This multiplier is used to compare the current candle's volume with that of the previous candle. A higher volume on the current candle, as defined by this multiplier, is indicative of a significant trading activity.
Reversal Candle Criteria:
The script identifies a candle as a reversal candle if it meets the following conditions:
The closing price of the candle is lower than its opening price, indicating a bearish sentiment.
The trading volume of the candle is greater than the product of the previous candle's volume and the user-set volume multiplier. This implies increased trading activity during the formation of this candle.
The length of the candle's lower tail is greater than its body, suggesting a rejection of lower prices and potential bullish sentiment building up.
Breakout Identification and Marking:
Upon detecting a reversal candle, the indicator draws lines at the high and low of this candle.
These lines represent potential breakout levels. A breakout is confirmed if the price crosses above the high (indicating a bullish breakout) or below the low (indicating a bearish breakout) of the reversal candle.
When a breakout occurs, the indicator places an arrow marker at the breakout point. The direction of the arrow (upwards or downwards) and its color (customizable by the user) indicate the nature of the breakout.
Breakout Alerts:
The indicator includes an alert condition that notifies traders when a breakout occurs. This feature helps traders to quickly react to potential trading opportunities.
Practical Application:
The indicator is best used in markets with distinct volume patterns, as volume is a key component of its analysis.
It can be combined with other technical analysis tools, such as trend lines or moving averages, for additional confirmation of trading signals.
Traders should consider adjusting the volume multiplier based on the typical volume characteristics of the specific asset they are analyzing.
Conclusion:
This "Volume-Based Reversal and Breakout Indicator" is a robust tool that aids traders in identifying potential reversals and breakouts with an emphasis on volume analysis. It's customizable and alert-enabled features make it a versatile addition to a trader's toolkit, suitable for various trading styles and market conditions.
Disclaimer:
This indicator is provided "as is" without any warranties, either express or implied. The information and data contained within this indicator do not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Users assume full responsibility for any trading decisions made based on the use of this indicator.
Past performance of indicators does not guarantee future results. Investing in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of capital. It is strongly advised to consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
The development of this indicator does not constitute an endorsement or recommendation by TradingView or any other entity. All trademarks and trade names mentioned herein are the property of their respective owners.
Forecasting
ATH Gain PotentialThe indicator quantifies the relative position of a symbol's current closing price in relation to its historical all-time high (ATH).
By evaluating the ratio between the ATH and the present closing price, it provides an analytical framework to estimate the potential gains that could accrue if the symbol were to revert to its ATH from a specified reference point. The ratio serves as a quantitative measure for assessing the distance between the current market value and the symbol's historical peak, enabling investors to gauge the prospective profitability of a return to the ATH.
Gains CorrelationsScript Description: This script is to tie the major futures indexes together at a macro level with the normal relationships (i.e. 10YR Yield, DXY, VIX inversely related to Equities) and determine how strong the correlation is between them using a 20 period average. For example, a move up in the 10YR yield while having a strong inverse covariance with equities should signal a downward move for equities. In addition, if ES and NQ are going down, and the Dow and RTY have a strong covariance, the probability of them going down as well is strong. Overall, it's a macro indicator on broad market movements.
Originality & Usefulness: The script functions by tying 7 major indexes together using correlation strength relative to the currently selected ticker. The user can change the tickers and also invert if needed. This is different from the single correlation script by adding in several as they track in tandem. The chart used is to illustrate periods where correlations are tight with equities and the lines are clustered towards the top range of strong covariance. It also highlights when Equities are far out of line with others like gold (GC). A loose covariance would mean the relationship is weak and this indicator would show a divergence in price action between them. The overall intent is to show that most indexes rise and fall together but sometimes they move faster together.
MoonFlag BTC Daily Swing PredictorThis script mainly works on BTC on the daily timeframe. Other coins also show similar usefulness with this script however, BTC on the daily timeframe is the main design for this script.
(Please note this is not trading advice this is just comments about how this indicator works.)
This script is predictive. It colors the background yellow when the script calculates a large BTC swing is potentially about to happen. It does not predict in which direction the swing will occur but it leads the price action so can be useful for leveraged trades. When the background gets colored with vertical yellow lines - this shows that a largish price swing is probably going to occur.
The scripts also shades bands around the price action that are used to estimate an acceptable volatility at any given time. If the bands are wide that means price action is volatile and large swings are not easily predicted. Over time, with reducing volatility, these price action bands narrow and then at a set point or percentage (%) which can be set in the script settings, the background gets colored yellow. This indicates present price action is not volatile and a large price swing is potentially going to happen in the near future. When price action breaks through the narrowing bands, the background is no longer presented because this is seen as an increase in volatility and a considerable portion of the time, a large sudden drop in price action or momentous gain in price is realized.
This indicator leads price action. It predicts that a swing is possibly going to happen in the near future. As the indicator works on the BTC daily, this means on a day-to-day basis if the bands continually narrow - a breakout is more likely to happen. In order to see how well this indicator works, have a look at the results on the screenshot provided. Note the regions where vertical yellow lines are present on the price action - and then look after these to see if a sizeable swing in price has occurred.
To use this indicator - wait until yellow vertical lines are presented on the BTC daily. Then use your experience to determine which way the price action might swing and consider entering a trade or leveraged trade in this direction. Alternatively wait a while to see in which direction the break-out occurs and considering and attempt to trade with this. Sometimes swings can be unexpected and breakout in one direction before then swinging much larger in the other. Its important to remember/consider that this indicator works on the BTC daily timeframe, so any consideration of entering a trade should be expected to cover a duration over many days or weeks, or possibly months. A large swing is only estimated every several plus months.
Most indicators are based on moving averages. A moving average is not predictive in the sense in that it lags price actions. This indicator creates bands that are based on the momentum of the price action. A change in momentum of price action therefore causes the bands to widen. When the bands narrow this means that the momentum of the price action is steady and price action volatility has converged/reduced over time. With BTC this generally means that a large swing in price action is going to occur as momentum in price action then pick-up again in one direction or another. Trying to view this using moving averages is not easy as a moving average lags price action which means that it is difficult to predict any sudden movements in price action ahead of when they might occur. Although, moving averages will converge over time in a similar manner as the bands calculated by this script. This script however, uses the price action momentum in a predictive manner to estimate where the price action might go based on present price momentum. This script therefore reacts to reduced volatility in price action much faster than a set of moving averages over various timescales can achieve.
MoonFlag
RSI Missmatch(Divergence) OSC. by Neo_ with Missmatch Alert█ Definition
A divergence or missmatch occurs when an asset’s price is moving opposite to a specific technical indicator or is moving in a different direction from other relevant data. The divergence indicator warns traders and technical analysts of changes in a price trend, oftentimes that it is weakening or changing direction.
Divergence or missmatch can be either positive, signifying the possibility of a move that is higher in the asset’s price, or it can be negative, signifying the possibility of a move that is lower in the asset’s price.
█ Takeaways
Divergence or missmatch often works with other indicators and data. It is usually used by technical analysts and traders when the asset’s price is moving counter to the direction of another indicator.
As mentioned above, positive divergence or missmatch indicates that the price could start rising and usually occurs when the price is moving lower, but while another indicator counters this direction by moving higher. In other words, showing bullish signals.
Negative divergence or missmatch indicates that the price could start declining and usually occurs when the price is moving higher, while another indicator moves lower as well. In other words, showing bearish signals.
█ What to look for
Divergence or missmatch is most often used to track and analyze the momentum in an asset’s price and the odds of a price reversal within the current trend. While using divergence, traders and analysts can decide on whether or not they would like to exit the position or set a stop loss in the case the divergence is negative and prices begin to fall.
█ Limitations
It is best to use divergence or missmatch with the aid of other indicators and analysis tools in order to help identify and confirm trend reversals and major market patterns. Divergence should not be relied on by itself to tell you the pertinent information you need to know as an investor. Risk control is key in your analysis and the fact that divergence is not always present in price reversals should definitely be what pushes you to combine it with other tools and indicators.
Additionally, divergence or missmatch can reflect long-term or short-term changes. When making snap decisions, acting on divergence alone could prove detrimental to your trading. Make sure you have other risk factors applied to your charting and general market analysis.
█ What exactly is RSI Missmatches discrepancies using a lookback period in trading?
In trading, lookback period is the number of periods of historical data used for observation and calculation. It is how far into the past the system looks when trying to calculate the variable under consideration. The concept was based on the fact that history can provide information about the future, and my aim was to predict the periods when trend changes would begin within these periods with the RSI oscillator. But this is only true if you're locked back far enough, not locked any further or less!
We already use the idea of looking back in different aspects of our lives, and even in the world of financial trading it can be used in various ways. Of course you will want to learn more about the concept, so in this article we will cover the following topics:
█ What kind of hindsight is this?
The aim here is to check whether trends will change in certain cycles, so we chose the High + Low / 2 formula as the source. Because no matter how much the prices swing up or down, sometimes the rebound can go further. The aim here is to notice the points where the price leaves a needle at the levels where it oscillates and the slowdown in momentum.
█ What does look-back period mean in trade?
To understand what a lookback period means in trading, you need to ask yourself: What is a lookback period in trading? In financial trading, period refers to the duration of a particular trading session. For example, a one-week period means one full week of trading sessions or five trading days. In 5 trading days, the average time is 120 hours in FX markets and 40 hours in stock markets. Regardless of what happens in these cycles, I prefer to choose a time period of 55 periods. Because I noticed that in all the charts I examined, the cycles generally changed during this time period.
█ Let's talk about the meaning of catching Missmatches
As you know, technical indicators are all a mathematical calculation using historical market data (price, volume, or a combination of both). It shows the behavior of the price better and helps in the analysis of price movement. But the indicator can only serve your intended purpose if you get the lookback time right. What we mean here is the setting parameter that determines how much historical data it will use in its calculation. In other words, it is the retrospective review period.
For example, on the RSI indicator you can set this period to 13 periods (default setting) or even 2 periods. The period you choose can determine what the indicator tells you, which in turn determines the strategy you can create with the indicator. The 13- period RSI gives you information about price momentum, so you can effectively use it to create a momentum strategy. On the other hand, the 2-periods RSI can be used to create a mean reversion strategy. To catch any incompatibilities, I set this period to 55 periods. Nothing more, nothing less!
█ Summary
The missmatch indicator helps traders assess changes in the price trend and indicates when price will move with or against the direction of another indicator. It can be either positive or negative, but it is important to note its limitations and that it should be used with other indicators that can also monitor price trends.
We wish you to identify these incompatibilities in the market in the best way possible... Good luck.
█ Tanım
Bir varlığın fiyatı belirli bir teknik göstergenin tersi yönünde hareket ettiğinde veya diğer ilgili verilerden farklı bir yönde hareket ettiğinde bir sapma veya uyumsuzluk meydana gelir. Farklılık göstergesi, tüccarları ve teknik analistleri fiyat eğilimindeki değişiklikler konusunda uyarır; çoğu zaman zayıflıyor veya yön değiştiriyor.
Farklılık veya uyumsuzluk, varlığın fiyatında daha yüksek bir hareket olasılığını işaret ederek pozitif olabilir veya varlığın fiyatında daha düşük bir hareket olasılığını işaret ederek negatif olabilir.
█ Çıkarımlar
Farklılık veya uyumsuzluk çoğu zaman diğer göstergeler ve verilerle de çalışır. Genellikle teknik analistler ve yatırımcılar tarafından varlığın fiyatı başka bir göstergenin yönünün tersine hareket ettiğinde kullanılır.
Yukarıda bahsedildiği gibi pozitif sapma veya uyumsuzluk, fiyatın yükselmeye başlayabileceğini gösterir ve genellikle fiyat düşerken meydana gelir, ancak başka bir gösterge bu yöne yükselerek karşı koyar. Başka bir deyişle yükseliş sinyalleri veriyor.
Negatif sapma veya uyumsuzluk, fiyatın düşmeye başlayabileceğini gösterir ve genellikle fiyat yükselirken başka bir gösterge de düşerken meydana gelir. Başka bir deyişle düşüş sinyalleri veriyor.
█ Nelere bakılmalı
Farklılık veya uyumsuzluk çoğunlukla bir varlığın fiyatındaki momentumu ve mevcut trend içinde fiyatın tersine dönme olasılığını izlemek ve analiz etmek için kullanılır. Farklılaşmayı kullanırken tüccarlar ve analistler, sapmanın negatif olması ve fiyatların düşmeye başlaması durumunda pozisyondan çıkmak isteyip istemeyeceklerine veya zararı durdurma kararı verip veremeyeceklerine karar verebilirler.
█ Sınırlamalar
Trend dönüşlerini ve ana piyasa modellerini tanımlamaya ve doğrulamaya yardımcı olmak için diğer göstergeler ve analiz araçlarının yardımıyla sapmayı veya uyumsuzluğu kullanmak en iyisidir. Bir yatırımcı olarak bilmeniz gereken ilgili bilgileri size söylemesi için farklılığa tek başına güvenilmemelidir. Risk kontrolü analizinizin anahtarıdır ve fiyat dönüşlerinde farklılığın her zaman mevcut olmaması gerçeği kesinlikle sizi onu diğer araç ve göstergelerle birleştirmeye iten şey olmalıdır.
Ek olarak, farklılık veya uyumsuzluk uzun vadeli veya kısa vadeli değişiklikleri yansıtabilir. Ani kararlar verirken yalnızca farklılıklara göre hareket etmek ticaretinize zarar verebilir. Grafiğinize ve genel piyasa analizinize başka risk faktörlerinin uygulandığından emin olun.
█ Ticarette yeniden inceleme dönemi kullanan RSI Missmatches tutarsızlıkları tam olarak nedir?
Ticarette yeniden inceleme süresi, gözlem ve hesaplama için kullanılan geçmiş verilerin dönemlerinin sayısıdır. Söz konusu değişkeni hesaplamaya çalışırken sistemin ne kadar geçmişe baktığıdır. Konsept tarihin geleceğe dair bilgi verebileceği gerçeği üzerine kuruluydu ve amacım RSI osilatörü ile bu dönemler içerisinde trend değişimlerinin başlayacağı dönemleri tahmin etmekti. Ancak bu yalnızca yeterince geriye kilitlenmişseniz geçerlidir, daha fazla veya daha az kilitlenmemişseniz!
Geriye bakma fikrini hayatımızın farklı yönlerinde zaten kullanıyoruz ve hatta finansal ticaret dünyasında bile bu fikir çeşitli şekillerde kullanılabilir. Elbette konsept hakkında daha fazla bilgi edinmek isteyeceksiniz, bu nedenle bu yazıda aşağıdaki konuları ele alacağız:
█ Bu nasıl bir sonradan görmedir?
Burada amaç belli döngülerde trendlerin değişip değişmeyeceğini kontrol etmek olduğundan kaynak olarak Yüksek + Düşük / 2 formülünü seçtik. Çünkü fiyatlar ne kadar yukarı veya aşağı hareket ederse etsin bazen toparlanma daha da ileri gidebiliyor. Burada amaç fiyatın salınım yaptığı seviyelerde iğne bıraktığı noktaları ve momentumdaki yavaşlamayı fark etmektir.
█ Ticarette geriye bakma süresi ne anlama geliyor?
Ticarette yeniden inceleme süresinin ne anlama geldiğini anlamak için kendinize şu soruyu sormanız gerekir: Ticarette yeniden inceleme süresi nedir? Finansal ticarette dönem, belirli bir ticaret seansının süresini ifade eder. Örneğin, bir haftalık dönem, bir tam haftalık işlem seansı veya beş işlem günü anlamına gelir. 5 işlem gününde ortalama süre döviz piyasalarında 120 saat, borsalarda ise 40 saattir. Bu döngülerde ne olursa olsun 55 periyotluk bir zaman dilimini seçmeyi tercih ediyorum. Çünkü incelediğim tüm grafiklerde bu zaman diliminde döngülerin genel olarak değiştiğini fark ettim.
█ Kaçak Eşleşmeleri yakalamanın anlamı hakkında konuşalım
Bildiğiniz gibi teknik göstergeler, geçmiş piyasa verileri (fiyat, hacim veya her ikisinin birleşimi) kullanılarak yapılan matematiksel hesaplamalardır. Fiyatın davranışını daha iyi gösterir ve fiyat hareketinin analizine yardımcı olur. Ancak gösterge yalnızca yeniden inceleme süresini doğru yaparsanız amacınıza hizmet edebilir. Burada kast ettiğimiz, hesaplamasında ne kadar geçmiş veri kullanacağını belirleyen ayar parametresidir. Bir başka deyişle geriye dönük inceleme dönemidir.
Örneğin RSI göstergesinde bu süreyi 13 döneme (varsayılan ayar) ve hatta 2 döneme ayarlayabilirsiniz. Seçeceğiniz dönem, göstergenin size ne söyleyeceğini belirleyebilir ve bu da gösterge ile oluşturabileceğiniz stratejiyi belirler. 13 dönemlik RSI size fiyat momentumu hakkında bilgi verir, böylece onu bir momentum stratejisi oluşturmak için etkili bir şekilde kullanabilirsiniz. Öte yandan, ortalamaya dönüş stratejisi oluşturmak için 2 dönemlik RSI kullanılabilir. Herhangi bir uyumsuzluğu yakalamak için bu periyodu 55 periyoda ayarladım. Ne fazla ne eksik!
█ Özet
Uyumsuzluk göstergesi, yatırımcıların fiyat eğilimindeki değişiklikleri değerlendirmesine yardımcı olur ve fiyatın ne zaman başka bir göstergenin yönüne göre veya ona karşı hareket edeceğini gösterir. Olumlu ya da olumsuz olabilir, ancak sınırlamalarına dikkat etmek ve fiyat eğilimlerini de izleyebilecek diğer göstergelerle birlikte kullanılması gerektiğini unutmamak önemlidir.
Piyasadaki bu uyumsuzlukları en iyi şekilde tespit etmenizi dileriz... Bol Kazançlar.
RSI Levels On Chart [MisterMoTA]The values of the RSI Levels On Chart are calculated using Reverse Engineering RSI calculations by Giorgos Siligardos, Ph.D.
Instead of using only the 50 line of the RSI on chart I added options for users to define the Extreme Overbought and Oversold values, also simple Oversold and Overbought values, start of Bullish and Bearish zones and the 50 rsi value.
With the RSI Levels On Chart users are able to see on chart the price that a candles need to close for a certain value of the RSI. E.g. what price is needed for the RSI to be at oversold 30 or what would be the price when rsi will cross the 50 line.
The script has the 50 line color coded that will turn red when the line falling and will change to the user input color when it will be rising, helping users to see fast the clear trend of any asset on any timeframe from 1 second to 12 months.
I added few alerts for rsi overbought, oversold, extreme overbought and extreme oversold, crossing 50 level, crossing bullish or bearish zones values and also alerts for the 50 line falling or rising.
You can use RSI Levels On Chart as a simple indicator or you can add your favorite oscilator(s) to have a clear view of the trends of the markets, in this demo I added RSI + Divergences + Alerts with a moving average set to 50 RMA.
SMIIO + VolumeThis indicator generates long and short signals.
The operation of the indicator is as follows;
First, true strength index is calculated with closing prices. We call this the "ergodic" curve.
Then the average of the ergodic (ema) is calculated to obtain the "signal" curve.
To calculate the "oscillator", the signal is subtracted from ergodic (oscillator = ergodic - signal).
The last variable to be used in the calculation is the average volume, calculated with sma.
Calculation for long signal;
- If the ergodic curve cross up the zero line (ergodic > 0 AND ergodic < 0) and,
- If the current oscillator is greater than the previous oscillator (oscillator > oscillator ) and,
- If the current ergonic is greater than the previous signal (ergonic > signal) and,
- If the current volume is greater than the average volume (volume > averageVolume) and,
- If the current candle closing price is greater than the opening price (close > open)
If all the above conditions are fullfilled, the long input signal is issued with "Buy" label.
Calculation for short signal;
- If the ergodic curve cross down the zero line (ergodic < 0 AND ergodic > 0) and,
- If the current oscillator is smaller than the previous oscillator (oscillator < oscillator ) and,
- If the current ergonic is smaller than the previous signal (ergonic < signal) and,
- If the current volume is greater than the average volume (volume > averageVolume) and,
- If the current candle closing price is smaller than the opening price (close < open)
If all the above conditions are fullfilled, the short input signal is issued with "Sell" label.
Live Economic Calendar by toodegrees⚠️ PLEASE READ ⚠️
Although this indicator is accurate in showcasing live and upcoming News Events, checking the original sources is always suggested. This indicator aims to save Time, but due to limitations it may not be 100% correct 100% of the Time.
Description:
The Live Economic Calendar indicator seamlessly integrates with external news sources to provide real-Time, upcoming, and past financial news directly on your Tradingview chart.
By having a clear understanding of when news are planned to be released, as well as their respective impact, analysts can prepare their weeks and days in advance. These injections of volatility can be harnessed by analysts to support their thesis, or may want to be avoided to ensure higher probability market conditions. Fundamentals and news releases transcend the boundaries of technical analysis, as their effects are difficult to predict or estimate.
Designed for both novice and experienced traders, the Live Economic Calendar indicator enhances your analysis by keeping you informed of the latest and upcoming market-moving news.
This is achieved with three different visual components:
News Table: A dedicated News Table shows the Day of the Week, Date, Time of the Day, Currency, Expected Impact, and News Name for each event (in chronological order). Once a news event has occurred, or the day is over, it will be greyed out – helping to focus on the next upcoming news events.
News Lines: Vertical lines plotted in the future help analysts monitor upcoming news events; vertical lines in the past help analysts spot and backtest previous news events that already occurred.
News Labels: Color-coded news labels will plot once the news events have occurred. This not only gives analysts a minimalistic visual cue, but also retains the information of which news were released at that Time in their tooltips.
Forex Factory Calendar News Feed:
The Forex Factory Data Feed includes news events from January 2007 to the present. The data is updated daily. Please see the Technical Description below for more information.
Forex Factory provides news for all major currencies and markets:
Australia (AUD)
Canada (CAD)
Switzerland (CHF)
China (CNY)
European Union (EUR)
United Kingdom (GBP)
Japan (JPY)
New Zealand (NZD)
United States of America (USD)
Further, there are four types of news impact, defined by respective color-coding which is retained to avoid confusion:
⚪ Holiday
🟡 Low Impact
🟠 Medium Impact
🔴 High Impact
News' Time of the day data is in 24H format, and 'All Day' news are marked at Daily candle open.
⚠️ Original Release Notes ⚠️
The original release of this indicator supports the Forex Factory News Calendar in EST (New York Time). Future updates will include multiple news sources, as well as supporting different Timezones.
Given Data limitations, the Daily chart can omit some data due to the market being close on some days. This will be fixed in the future once an efficient solution is implemented.
Key Features:
Impact-Based News Filtering: Filter news items based on their expected impact (holiday, low, medium, high) to focus on the most market-critical information.
Symbol-Specific News: Automatically filter news to display only what's relevant to the currency pair or trading symbol you are analyzing.
Custom Currency News: Want to see more than the news relevant to the current symbol? Toggle which markets' news you are most interested in.
Chart History: Keep your charts clean by displaying only the drawings of Today's news, or This Week's news.
Custom Lookback: Look further back in Time by choosing a custom number of Lookback Days, allowing you to backtest and keep in mind salient news events from the past.
Line and Label Customization: Both the News Lines and Labels are highly customizable (except the colors), allowing you to make the indicator yours.
Table History: Choose whether to focus on Today's news only, or the news for This Week.
Table Customization: The table colors and position are highly customizable, allowing you to make it fit your visual preference and your layouts' aesthetic.
"Wondering how it's done? 👇"
Technical Description:
This script utilizes Pine Seeds , a service integrated with TradingView for importing custom data. This stunning feature enables users to upload and access custom End Of Day (EOD) data, which can be updated as frequently as five times daily.
This data can be imported in one of two formats:
Single Value: integer or float
Candle Data: open, high, low, close, volume
Upon encountering Pine Seeds, I recognized its potential for importing financial news events. Given that Forex Factory is a primary source of financial news in my personal analysis, integrating it into my layouts seemed like an exciting opportunity. This integration is expected to provide significant value to users looking to integrate additional news feeds all in one place.
Development Challenges:
Format Limitations: News events must be converted into numerical values for import, due to the required Pine Seeds format.
Amount of Data: With all currencies considered, the system may encounter over 40 news events in a single day.
Data Availability: The reliance on End Of Day (EOD) data means that information for the current day is displayed with a delay, and accessing future data is not possible.
Solutions:
Encoding: Each news event is encoded as an integer in the "DCHHMMITYP" format.
D = day of the week
C = currency
HHMM = Time of day
I = news impact
TYP = event ID (see Event Library A and Event Library B )
To ensure data assignment for each candle across the open, high, low, close, and volume series, the value "999" is used as a placeholder:
Importing: Utilizing the encoding system, up to five news events per day can be imported for a singular Pine Seeds custom symbol.
By creating multiple custom Pine Seeds Symbols, efficient imports of a larger number of events is then easily achievable. Nine unique symbols have been established, accommodating up to 45 news events per day.
These symbols are searchable, and accessible as " TOODEGREES_FOREX_FACTORY_SLOT_N " where N ranges from 1 to 9.
The Pine Seeds data feed appears as follows:
Uploading Schedule: To ensure analysts are informed about current and upcoming week's news, events are uploaded one week in advance.
This approach is vital for preparing for potential market impacts across various asset classes and currencies, allowing visibility of an entire week's news ahead of Time.
Data Scraping:
Unfortunately Forex Factory doesn't offer an API to fetch their news feed.
Hence an ad hoc python scraper was developed to read and save news events from January 2007 till the present leveraging Selenium. The scraper algorithm is part of a larger script responsible for scraping data, formatting data, and creating all necessary datasets.
The pseudo-code for the python script is as follows:
Read and save news event data on Forex Factory
Format day of the week, currency, Time of the day, and impact data for the Encoding
Encode and save News Event IDs – Event ID dataset is created
Format news data for Pine Seeds (roll-back date by one week, assign news to open, high, low, close, and volume values)
Create Pine Seeds Datasets
This script is ran everyday at Futures market close (16:00 EST) to update the last part of the each dataset, ensuring accuracy, and taking into account last-minute news additions or revisions.
Once the data (next week's news) is imported by the Live Economic Calendar indicator, it's immediately decoded by leveraging the Forex Factory Decoding Library , and saved into an array.
Upon a new week open, the decoded data is used to plot news events on the chart and in the news table.
See the inner workings of these processes in the Forex Factory Utility Library .
Although these libraries are specifically built for this indicator, feel free to use them to create your own scripts. Looking forward to see what the Pine Script community comes up with!
Thank you for making it this far. Enjoy!
Ciao,
toodegrees
This tool is available ONLY on the TradingView platform.
Terms and Conditions
Our charting tools are provided for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Our charting tools are not designed to predict market movements or provide specific recommendations. Users should be aware that past performance is not indicative of future results and should not be relied upon for making financial decisions. By using our charting tools, the user agrees that Toodegrees and the Toodegrees Team are not responsible for any decisions made based on the information provided by these charting tools. The user assumes full responsibility and liability for any actions taken and the consequences thereof, including any loss of money or investments that may occur as a result of using these products. Hence, by using these charting tools, the user accepts and acknowledges that Toodegrees and the Toodegrees Team are not liable nor responsible for any unwanted outcome that arises from the development, or the use of these charting tools. Finally, the user indemnifies Toodegrees and the Toodegrees Team from any and all liability.
By continuing to use these charting tools, the user acknowledges and agrees to the Terms and Conditions outlined in this legal disclaimer.
F.B_Vortex Indicator ProThe "F.B_Vortex Indicator Pro" is a technical analysis tool designed to identify trends in financial markets. It calculates two Vortex Indicators (VI) based on price movements, considering positive and negative price changes.
The smoothed VI+ line represents the smoothed negative trend, while the smoothed VI+ line represents the smoothed positive trend.
The crossing of the smoothed VI+ line above the smoothed VI+ line could indicate a potential bullish trend.
Conversely, the crossing of the smoothed VI+ line above the smoothed VI+ line suggests a possible bearish trend.
The "Smoothed VI-" line is also displayed.
When the Smoothed VI- line is above both the smoothed VI+ line and the smoothed VI+ line, it may signal a transition to a bearish main trend or indicate an expected one.
When the Smoothed VI- line is below both the smoothed VI+ line and the smoothed VI+ line, it may indicate a transition to a bullish main trend or suggest an expected one.
Adjustments can be made using input parameters such as length and smoothing periods to tailor the indicator to specific market conditions.
itradesize /\ Silver Bullet x Macro x KillzoneThis indicator shows the best way to annotate ICT Killzones, Silver Bullet and Macro times on the chart. With the help of a new pane, it will not distract your chart and will not cause any distractions to your eye, or brain but you can see when will they happen.
The indicator also draws everything beforehand when a proper new day starts.
You can customize them how you want to show up.
Collapsed or full view?
You can hide any of them and keep only the ones you would like to.
All the colors can be customized, texts & sizes or just use shortened texts and you are also able to hide those drawings which are older than the actual day.
You should minimize the pane where the script has been automatically drawn to therefore you will have the best experience and not show any distractions.
The script automatically shows the time-based boxes, based on the New York timezone.
Killzone Time windows ( for indices ):
London KZ 02:00 - 05:00
New York AM KZ 07:00 - 10:00
New York PM KZ 13:30 - 16:00
Silver Bullet times:
03:00 - 04:00
10:00 - 11:00
14:00 - 15:00
Macro times:
02:33 - 03:00
04:03 - 04:30
08:50 - 0910
09:50 - 10:10
10:50 - 11:10
11:50 - 12:50
ARIMA Moving Average and Forecaster [SS]Finally releasing this. This took months, over 3 months to be precise, to figure out, code and troubleshoot! I honestly was going to give up on this project, but I finally got it to actually work fairly reliably. So hopefully you like it!
This is a very basic ARIMA modeler. It can do the following:
1. Provide you with an ARIMA based Moving Average;
2. Provide you with a standard error band;
3. Auto-select a lag length for assessment based on stationarity;
3. Provide you with the option of extending the error range by a user selected amount of standard deviations; and
4. Forecasting and plotting the forecast on the chart.
I will go over each function individually, but before I do, I think its important to talk a bit about what an ARIMA Model is and does:
ARIMA stands for AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average and is an approach to modeling and time series forecasting. In simple terms, it combines autoregressive (AR) and moving average (MA) components to capture the underlying patterns in a time series data. The "AutoRegressive" part accounts for the relationship between an observation and its previous values, while the "Moving Average" part considers the relationship between an observation and a residual error from past observations. The "Integrated" component involves differencing the time series to make it stationary, which aids in stabilizing the model. ARIMA models help predict future values based on patterns observed in historical data, making them useful for forecasting in various fields such as economics, finance, and weather prediction.
The benefits to ARIMA is it will forecast based on the current trend, but it also provides for both the up and down scenario of the trend (i.e., if we are in a downtrend, what it would look like and what values we could expect if the trend reverses and vice versa). All of this is within the scope of this indicator, believe it or not!
If you would like more information on ARIMA, you can check out my educational post about it here:
Alrighty, now for the indicator functions.
ARIMA Moving Average and Standard Error Band
The ARIMA moving average is very simple, it takes the SMA of the current trend, lags it and plots out the lagged SMA. You can toggle the auto-select lag on, or you can pick your own lag manually. The above image is an auto-selected lag, but if we manually lag it by 5, this is what it looks like:
Its simply a lagged average of the 5 SMA (that is essentially how ARIMA works, by creating a moving average and lagging the moving average).
There are some implications to selecting a lag factor when it comes to forecasting, but I will cover this in the forecasting section. But I do want to make mention, you can use the ARIMA moving average in lieu of other moving averages. The advantage to doing this is it will be able to plot out the error bands. For example, if we wanted to get an ARIMA MA of the 200 SMA, we can toggle on the error bands and this is what we get:
Or the 50 MA:
NOTE: You ABSOLUTELY SHOULD NEVER use more than a lag of 4 or 5 for Forecasting (will be discussed later).
Auto-Select Lag
The indicator pulls the ARIMA modeler framework from my Forecasting library and pulls the stationarity assessment from my SPTS library. When you are doing an ARIMA model for forecasting, we need to ensure the data is stationary. Thus, if you want to forecast out the current trend, its highly recommended you select the "Auto Determine Lag Length" to find the most appropriate lag and forecast accordingly.
You can, however, chose your own lag order (model order), but this should never be above 4 or 5.
You should never select a lag of more than 5 because you are introducing too much "trendiness" into the equation, and you will get astronomical readings. ARIMA models never generally exceed a lag of 3 or 4 at most, as they are supposed be stationary and de-trended.
Extending by Standard Deviation
There is an option to select a standard deviation extension band. This is helpful for active day trading. Here is NIO extended by 2 standard deviations:
General suggestion is to only extend by 2 standard deviations and this is sufficient for most stocks.
Forecasting
The hallmark of an ARIMA model is the ability to use it for forecasting. Thus, the forecasting feature is a large portion of this indicator. You can see it displayed in the main chart above, but let's show some other examples:
NIO on the 1 hour:
TSLA on the 4 hour:
You can also display a forecasting table:
The result row shows the most likely, conservative, price at each time increment.
The Upper Confidence and Lower Confidence show what the trend would look like if it continued up or down at the current rate and the 95% confidence intervals show the values that the true source is likely to fall between at various increments in time with a 95% confidence (i.e. 95% probability that it should fall between these levels at period xyz assuming normal distribution).
The important levels, in my opinion, are the upper and lower confidence levels. These show you the current rate of decline or increase that the stock is expecting and what the trend would look like with a continuation or a reversal. This is ARIMA's biggest strength, as it has the ability to plot both outcomes assuming the current trend rate and time remains constant.
And that is the indicator! ARIMA is a bit of a complex process, but its a very powerful tool when used properly!
Troubleshooting:
One thing of note. Sometimes when autoselecting a length for forecasting, if there has been a heavy trend in one direction, you will not get the upper or lower confidence levels because of the lack of any up or down movement. In this case, manually select a lag of 3 to 5 to correct for this.
Let me know if you have any questions below and safe trades everyone!
MVRV Z-ScoreThe MVRV ratio was created by Murad Mahmudov & David Puell. It simply compares Market Cap to Realised Cap, presenting a ratio (MVRV = Market Cap / Realised Cap). The MVRV Z-Score is a later version, refining the metric by normalising the peaks and troughs of the data.
Forecast: PastFluxDelta PredictionThe theory is that time periods and the conditions during these periods repeat themselves. Especially if it is the same day of the week in the past, there is a high probability that price fluctuations will roughly repeat themselves.
Eternal return (or eternal recurrence) is a philosophical concept which states that time repeats itself in an infinite loop, and that exactly the same events will continue to occur in exactly the same way, over and over again, for eternity.
History does repeat itself.
The stock market is a manifest example.
Chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co. Matt Maley pointed out the strong resemblance between the stock market recently and that in the past.
Various scientific studies and articles show that there could be something to this theory
Most of the investors are ignoring the parallels between stocks today and "heady" years 1929, 1999 and 2007…
Post Labor Day sees investors returning to the S&P 500 near all-time highs and some dark economic shadows lurking …
So how should we regard these inescapable results?
Nietzsche said we should embrace them, accept them, and love them. Once they stop, expect them to start again.
But remember that the future is fundamentally uncertain and that past results are by no means a guarantee of future performance.
Based on this, this indicator uses historical trading data from a year, a week or a day ago and compares price fluctuations in the past with current conditions.
"Bars to predict" can be used to indicate how far into the future the indicator is looking.
"Amount of bars to show" determines how many bars are generally displayed. A high value allows you to see how accurate the method was in the past.
Weighted Alpha with Zero line indicatorDescription:
This script introduces an Enhanced Weighted Alpha Indicator, designed for traders and analysts who seek a more nuanced view of market momentum and trend strength. The Weighted Alpha is a sophisticated measure that combines the concepts of price change and consistency of trend over a specified period. This version of the indicator is enhanced with a customizable lambda value, allowing users to fine-tune the sensitivity according to their trading strategy.
Key Features:
Weighted Alpha Calculation: The script calculates the Weighted Alpha based on the daily return of the asset, adjusted by a decay factor (lambda). This provides a smoothed, long-term view of the asset's momentum.
Customizable Lambda: Users can adjust the lambda value to modify the rate at which older data decreases in relevance. A higher lambda value gives more weight to recent data, making the indicator more sensitive to recent price movements.
Zero Line Indicator: A dotted red horizontal line at the 0 value on the y-axis serves as a quick visual reference. This line helps in identifying when the Weighted Alpha crosses from positive to negative or vice versa, indicating potential shifts in market momentum.
Separate Chart Pane: The Weighted Alpha is plotted on a separate pane below the main chart, providing a clear and uncluttered view.
Usage:
Trend Analysis: A positive Weighted Alpha indicates an upward trend, while a negative value suggests a downward trend. The magnitude of the Weighted Alpha gives an idea of the trend's strength.
Crossover Signals: Watch for the Weighted Alpha line crossing the zero line. Such crossovers can signal potential trend reversals.
Customization: Experiment with different lambda values to match the indicator's sensitivity with your trading style. A lower lambda smooths out the line more, while a higher lambda makes it more responsive to recent price changes.
Conclusion:
This Enhanced Weighted Alpha Indicator is a powerful tool for traders looking to analyze and anticipate market trends with greater precision. Its customization options and clear visual representation make it a valuable addition to any trader's toolkit.
SandTigerSandTiger is an auto-counting tool that counts naturally occurring events in a price series. This version has been reduced to 377 lines of code and should run faster than previous versions. Although not shown here, I highly recommend running my 'ELB' script with SandTiger. ELB is an 'event locator' and will mark all points that SandTiger numbers - giving you visual cues as to where these points are located. ELB also displays support/resistance levels.
SandTiger is designed to be used with MAGENTA - a counting system for Forex and other markets.
MAGENTA is a free and open framework for understanding and explaining price movement in financial markets. Any materials associated with MAGENTA are strictly for educational purposes only.
SandTiger tracks Component Values, Dyads, and Sum Table Values (STV's) over straight and curved trends, allowing a trader to discern where directional shifts are likely to occur.
SandTiger requires just 3 things to function accurately:
1) A correct starting point (this will typically be an obvious trend turn high or low in a series of price moves).
2) A 'push 1' count ('push 1' runs from the starting point to the event prior to the first terminal of the first FCT or Fractured Counter-Trend).
3) A 'high prime' value (the high prime count runs from the starting point through to the second terminal of the first FCT with no skips).
FRAMEWORK OVERVIEW: 'Component' values are filtered from the prime set (including the half prime and further reductions). Once we have the comp table we add the values to get a 'total'. With the 'total' we divide and multiply by two to get two additional values. 'Derivatives' are based on various calculations using these three values.
We're looking for 'total/2' to count into either itself, 'total', 'total*2', or a derivative. Comp counts are in Tx form and counted from trend start. If the trend doesn't turn on a comp value it will likely turn on a Dyad or STV value. If that also doesn't happen it's likely you have a 'curved' trend/sequence that will turn on one of the above after moving away from its high/low. This can also be traded using SandTiger's 'Seg Terminals' skip option.
Sum tables and Dyad values are drawn from the 'primes' and Dyads use the 'push1' value as well. In a structural trend, primes are gotten by counting pushpulls 1 & 2 in 'Ti' form. Comps, Sum table values, and Dyads are equivalent, sequences can turn on either value type belonging to the 1st or 2nd prime set. Both STV's and Dyads are counted in 'Tx' form (except where count-through signals occur).
Types and antitypes correlate and are associated with a 12-count 'cycle.' (Ti = 'Terminals Included'; Tx = 'Terminals eXcluded'; both refer to FCT terminals)
THE STRATEGY:
For Structures: Trade Comps, Dyads, and STV's from sets 1 (all) and 2 (Dyads and STV's only) in the 'main' segment then on the 'carry-over' by skipping segment terminals. If a PC or cycle caps the sequence, trade that as well.
For NSM's: Trade movements that flash a signal prior to the end of the initial cycle. The mark will be the push1 value. Twelve will be the 'high prime.' Skip interrupts and trade carry-over values.
The first version of SandTiger was conceived/planned/authored by Erek A.D. and coded by Erek A.D. and @SimpleCryptoLife beginning in August 2022 and finishing in Dec. 2022
The current version was written and developed July 3, 2023 and has been refined and upgraded by Erek A.D. through Jan. 2024...
Whalemap [BigBeluga]The Whalemap indicator aims to spot big buying and selling activity represented as big orders for a possible bottom or top formation on the chart.
🔶 CALCULATION
The indicator uses volume to spot big volume activity represented as big orders in the market.
for i = 0 to len - 1
blV.vol += (close > close ? volume : 0)
brV.vol += (close < close ? volume : 0)
When volume exceeds its own threshold, it is a sign that volume is exceeding its normal value and is considered as a "Whale order" or "Whale activity," which is then plotted on the chart as circles.
🔶 DETAILS
The indicator plots Bubbles on the chart with different sizes indicating the buying or selling activity. The bigger the circle, the more impact it will have on the market.
On each circle is also plotted a line, and its own weight is also determined by the strength of its own circle; the bigger the circle, the bigger the line.
Old buying/selling activity can also be used for future support and resistance to spot interesting areas.
The more price enters old buying/selling activity and starts producing orders of the same direction, it might be an interesting point to take a closer look.
🔶 EXAMPLES
The chart above is showing us price reacting to big orders, finding good bottoms in price and good tops in confluence with old activity.
🔶 SETTINGS
Users will have the options to:
Filter options to adjust buying and selling sensitivity.
Display/Hide Lines
Display/Hide Bubbles
Choose which orders to display (from smallest to biggest)
Bias DailyThis indicator shows in a different way how to evaluate the BIAS Daily.
Evaluate yesterday's closed candle and that of the day before yesterday
The conditions are:
LONG BIAS =
Candle closed above High Candle [2 ]
- In this condition a long continuation can be considered
SHORT BIAS =
The candle closed below the low candle [2 ]
- In this condition a short continuation can be considered
IN THE RANGE =
The candle did not close below or above the Low and High candle
- In this condition it is better not to risk it
The user has the possibility to:
- Choose to show high or low BIAS levels
- Shows the Table in which the BIAS D is marked
The indicator should be used as TTrades shows in its videos, it can also be implemented in ICT strategies.
The indicator takes into consideration the last 2 candles already closed, so on the candle that is forming you can expect reactions in the Pd Array of the Candle Range , below I show examples of how to use it in Multitimeframe
BIAS LONG =
BIAS SHORT =
Fibonacci Timing Pattern IIThe Fibonacci Timing Pattern II is a price-based counter that seeks to determine medium-term reversals in price action. It is based on the following set of conditions:
* For a bullish Fibonacci timing signal II: The current close must be lower than the close prices from one and two periods ago. Simultaneously, the close price from two periods ago must be lower than the close price from three periods ago, and the close price from three periods ago must be lower than the close price from five periods ago. The Fibonacci sequence continues until the close price from thirty four periods ago which must be above the close price from fifty five periods ago.
* For a bearish Fibonacci timing signal II: The current close must be higher than the close prices from one and two periods ago. Simultaneously, the close price from two periods ago must be higher than the close price from three periods ago, and the close price from three periods ago must be higher than the close price from five periods ago. The Fibonacci sequence continues until the close price from thirty four periods ago which must be lower the close price from fifty five periods ago.
The signals of the pattern are ideally used in a sideways market or used in tandem with the trend (bullish signals are taken in a bullish market and bearish signals are taken in a bearish market).
Z-Score Forecaster[SS]Hello everyone,
I just released a neat library for Forecasting stock and equities. In it, it has a couple of novel approaches to forecasting (namely, a Moving Average forecaster and a Z-Score Forecaster). These were accomplished applying basic theories on Autoregression, ARIMA modelling and Z-Score to make new approaches to forecasting.
This is one of the novel approaches, the Z-Score forecaster.
How this function works is it identifies the current trend over the duration of the Z-Score assessment period. So, if the Z-Score is being assessed over the previous 75 candles, it will identify the trend over the previous 75 candles. It will then plot out the forecasted levels according to the trend, up to a maximum of the max Z-Score the ticker has reached within its period. At that point, it will show a likely trend reversal.
Here is an example:
This shows that SPY may go to 475.42 before reversing, as 475.42 is the highest z-score that has been achieved in the current trend.
When it is in an uptrend, the forecast line will be green, when in a downtrend, it will be red.
The forecasting line is accomplished through pinescript's new polyline feature.
In addition to the line, you can also have the indicator plot out a forecast table. The Z-Score Forecast table was formatted in a similar way to ARIMA, where it makes no bias about trend, it simply plots out both ends of the spectrum. So, if an uptrend were to continue, it will list the various uptrend targets along the way, vice versa for downtrends.
It will also display what Z-Score these targets would amount to. Here is an example:
Looking at SPY on the daily, we can see that a likely upside target would be around 484 at just over 2 Standard Deviations (Z-Score).
Its not liklely to go higher than that because then we are getting into 3 and 4 standard deviations.
Remember, everything generally should be within 1 and -1 standard deviations of the mean. So if we look at the table, we can see that would be between 466 and 430.
Customization
You can customize the Z-Score length and source. You can also toggle off and on alerts. The alerts will pop up when a ticker is trading at a previous maximum or previous minimum.
I have also added a manual feature to plot the Z-Score SMA, which is simply the SMA over the desired Z-Score lookback time.
And that's the indicator!
If you are interested in the library, you can access it here .
Thanks for checking this out and leave your questions below!
VWAP, MFI, RSI with S/R StrategyBest for 0dte/intraday trading on AMEX:SPY with 1 minute chart
Strategy Concept
This strategy aims to identify potential reversal points in a price trend by combining momentum indicators (RSI and MFI), volume-weighted price (VWAP), and recent price action trends. It looks for conditions where the price is poised to change direction, either bouncing off a support level in a potential uptrend or falling from a resistance level in a potential downtrend.
By incorporating both price level analysis (support/resistance) and momentum indicators, the strategy seeks to increase the likelihood of identifying significant trend reversals, taking into consideration both recent price movements and the current price's position relative to historical highs and lows.
VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price)
VWAP acts as a benchmark to determine the general market trend. It's an average price weighted by volume.
A price above VWAP is often considered bullish, and a price below VWAP is seen as bearish.
MFI (Money Flow Index) and RSI (Relative Strength Index) Parameters
MFI is a volume-weighted RSI, used to identify overbought (above 70) or oversold (below 30) conditions.
RSI is a momentum indicator that measures the magnitude of recent price changes to identify overbought or oversold conditions, similar to MFI.
The script uses standard overbought (70) and oversold (30) thresholds for both MFI and RSI.
Trend Check Function
The function trendCheck analyzes the past pastBars candles to count how many were bullish (closing price higher than the opening price) and bearish.
This function is used to assess the recent trend direction.
Support and Resistance Detection
The script calculates the highest high (highestHigh) and lowest low (lowestLow) over the last lookbackSR (50) periods to identify potential support and resistance levels.
isNearSupport and isNearResistance are conditions to check if the current price is within 0.08% of these identified levels, indicating proximity to support or resistance.
Buy and Sell Logic
Buy Signal:
The RSI crosses over the oversold threshold (30).
The MFI is also below its oversold level (30).
The current price is above the VWAP.
The recent trend (past 20 bars) has been predominantly bearish.
The price is near the identified support level.
Sell Signal:
The RSI crosses under the overbought threshold (70).
The MFI is above its overbought level (70).
The current price is below the VWAP.
The recent trend has been predominantly bullish.
The price is near the identified resistance level.
ICT Handle CounterThe "Handle Counter" is a unique TradingView script designed for ease and effectiveness in tracking price movements. It's particularly useful for traders who follow ICT methodologies. Users manually input their trade entry price, and the script then dynamically calculates and displays the number of Handles, or price changes, in a clear box above the latest candle on the chart. This real-time updating feature provides traders with crucial, current data on price movement, aiding in informed decision-making and a better understanding of market dynamics.
The "Handle Counter" script operates in the following way:
User Input: It starts by allowing you to input your trade's entry price. This is the price level from which the script will measure price movement.
Handles Calculation: The script calculates "Handles," which represent the price difference from your entry point to the current market price. This is done using a mathematical formula that finds the absolute value of this difference.
Display Mechanism: The calculated Handles are then displayed in a box, which is positioned above the latest candle on your trading chart. This box updates in real-time, giving you an ongoing view of how many Handles (price changes) have occurred since your entry point.
This script is designed to be straightforward and easy to use, providing clear, real-time information.
How to use:
Add the Indicator.
Open the Menu by clicking on the 'Settings' icon.
Navigate to the 'Inputs' tab and enter your entry price.
Click 'OK.' The indicator should immediately place a box above the latest candle, showing the current handles.
Additional Settings
Change Color of the Box
Change Color of the Font
Stock's Intrinsic Value| DCF modelScript Description
This pine script is based on a YouTube video titled: Warren Buffett: How to Calculate the Intrinsic Value of a Stock. Warren Buffett is a famous value investor who follows the principles of his mentor Benjamin Graham. He looks for companies that have strong competitive advantages, consistent earnings, and low debt. He also considers the intrinsic value of a company, which is the present value of its future cash flows, and compares it to the market price. He prefers to buy stocks that are trading below their intrinsic value and hold them for a long time.
One of the methods that Buffett uses to estimate the intrinsic value of a company is the discounted cash flow (DCF) model. This involves projecting the free cash flow (FCF) of the company for several years and then discounting it back to the present using an appropriate discount rate. The discount rate is usually the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of the company, which reflects its cost of equity and debt. The sum of the discounted FCFs and terminal value is the intrinsic value of the company.
Lastly, a margin of safety is included when using the DCF method for stock valuation because of uncertainty and error in estimating future cash flows and the intrinsic value of the company.
When the current price is below margin of safety, it means that the stock is currently undervalued and being price at significantly below its intrinsic value.
Guideline for determining each variable in this script
FCF growth rate: This is the annual rate at which the free cash flow (FCF) of the company is expected to grow over a forecast 10-year period. You can use historical FCF growth rates, industry averages, analyst estimates, or your assumptions to project the FCF growth rate. The higher the FCF growth rate, the higher the intrinsic value will be.
Discount rate: This is the rate of return that you require to invest in the company. It reflects the risk and opportunity cost of investing in the company. You can use the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of the company, capital pricing model (CAPM), hurdle rate, or market rate as the discount rate. The lower the discount rate, the higher the intrinsic value.
The margin of safety: Provides a cushion against errors in the valuation or adverse events that may affect the company. The margin of safety depends on your personal preference and risk tolerance. Normally is at 15% - 30%, the higher the margin of safety you set, the lower the chance that the stock will hit that level.
How to use this script
Step 1: This script only works for stocks that have financial data of free cash flow and total common shares outstanding
Step 2: Please use a yearly chart (12-month chart)
Step 3: You are required to determine a growth rate that will grow the free cash flow 10 years into the future
Step 4: You are required to determine a discount rate for the calculations
Step 5: You are required to add a margin of safety (Accounting for uncertainty)
Step 6: The rest of the calculations will be done automatically.
Disclaimer when using this script
I'm not a financial advisor
This script is for education purposes only
There are risks involved with stock market investing and investors should not act upon the content or information found here without first seeking advice from an accountant, financial planner, lawyer or other professional.
I can’t guarantee that this script will be error-free as I still consider myself a Pinescript beginner
Before making any decisions, investors should always research companies individually
I'll not be liable for any loss incurred, arising from the use of, or reliance on, this script
Limitations of this script
This script only works on the yearly chart (12 monthly charts)
The intrinsic value of a company will be negative if the company have a negative forecasted free cash flow
You need to make an educated guess about the growth rate, discount rate and margin of safety
This script uses free cash flow instead of owner's earnings (Operating cash flow - Maintenance capital expenditure), therefore it can't accurately estimate the maintenance capital expenditure.
Need at least 6 years’ worth of financial data
Market capitalisation uses total common shares outstanding multiplied by the closing price instead of using company-level total outstanding shares multiplied by the closing price
MA+ ProjectionThe "MA+ Projection" indicator is designed to visualize the potential future direction of a moving average, taking into account the impact of historical data loss. It is primarily aimed at providing a practical perspective on how moving averages could evolve as older data points are no longer considered.
Key Features:
Supported Moving Averages: SMA, EMA, WMA, VWMA, and VAWMA (Volume Adjusted WMA).
Flexible Time Span Settings: Customize the moving average length in bars, minutes, or days.
Adjustable Projection Scope: Set a percentage of the measurement to project forward.
Projection 'Cone': Show/hide the deviation and control the multiple.
Use Last Source Value: An option to add the latest known value to the moving window instead of only letting the window shrink. (Enabled by default.)
How It Works:
Given the specified parameters, it takes the selected moving average type (a known formula like SMA, EMA, or WMA), and projects the future data points by continuing to move the data 'window' forward without adding any more data. By default, it extends the average by assuming the price hasn't changed after the last bar. Alternatively, the projection can be the result of shrinking the window as it moves forward without adding any new data points.
Note:
This tool is for visual projection, not prediction. Its purpose is to aid in the analysis of potential future trends based on historical data, not to provide definitive market forecasts.
