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Forecasting

The Namib FlowThis is an alert/notification system consisting of the building on the following existing indicators: Hull Suite by InSilico Follow Line Indicator by Dreadblitz QQE MOD by Mihkel00 It is not my strategy - it is based on a video I watched. It will give and alert/notification once the following conditions are aligned: Bullish Alert Hull Suite Line Fully Green Follow Line Indicator Blue QQE MOD Green First Bullish Candle after the three indicators hit the conditions as described above. Bearish Alert Hull Suite Line Fully Red Follow Line Indicator Red QQE MOD Red First Bearish Candle after the three indicators hit the conditions as described above. Notes: This alert system only works on the first three candles (bullish or bearish after the Hull Suite band color change) otherwise there would be too many candles. The buy is at the close of the candle. The SL is at the follow line indicator. The TP is at a RRR of 1:2. Comments appreciated.
Pine Script™ indicator
by Marc_Thiart
1
Probability ConesA probability cone is an indicator that forecasts a statistical distribution from a set point in time into the future. Features Forecast a Standard or Laplace distribution. Change the how many bars the cones will lookback and sample in their calculations. Set how many bars to forecast the cones. Let the cones follow price from a set number of bars back. Anchor the cones and they will not update from their last location. Show or hide any set of cones. Change the deviation used of any cone's upper or lower line. Change any line's color, style, or width. Change or toggle the fill colors between any two cone lines. Basic Interpretations First, there is an assumption that the distribution starting from the cone's origin, based on the number of historical bars sampled, is likely to represent the distribution of future price. Price typically hangs around the mean. About 68% of price stays within the first deviation cones. About 95% of price stays within the second deviation cones. About 99.7% of price stays within the third deviation cones. When price is between the first and second deviation cones, there is a higher probability for a reversal. However, strong momentum while above or below the first deviation can indicate a trend where price maintains itself past the first deviation. For this reason it's recommended to use a momentum indicator alongside the cones. There is no mean reversion assumption when price deviates. Price can continue to stay deviated. It's recommended that the cones are placed at the beginning of calendar periods. Like the month, week, or day. Be mindful when using the cones on various timeframes. As the lookback setting, which selects the number of bars back to load from the cone's origin, will load the number of bars back based on the current timeframe. Second Deviation Strategy How to react when price goes beyond the second deviation is contingent on your trading position. If you are holding a losing trade and price has moved past the second deviation, it could be time to stop trading and exit. If you are holding a winning trade and price has moved past the second deviation, it would be best to look at exit strategies to capitalize on the outperformance. If price has moved beyond the second deviation and you hold no position, then do not open any new trades.
Editors' picks
Pine Script™ indicator
by joebaus
65
The Echo Forecast [LuxAlgo]This indicator uses a simple time series forecasting method derived from the similarity between recent prices and similar/dissimilar historical prices. We named this method "ECHO". This method originally assumes that future prices can be estimated from a historical series of observations that are most similar to the most recent price variations. This similarity is quantified using the correlation coefficient. Such an assumption can prove to be relatively effective with the forecasting of a periodic time series. We later introduced the ability to select dissimilar series of observations for further experimentation. This forecasting technique is closely inspired by the analogue method introduced by Lorenz for the prediction of atmospheric data. 1. Settings Evaluation Window: Window size used for finding historical observations similar/dissimilar to recent observations. The total evaluation window is equal to "Forecast Window" + "Evaluation Window" Forecast Window: Determines the forecasting horizon. Forecast Mode: Determines whether to choose historical series similar or dissimilar to the recent price observations. Forecast Construction: Determines how the forecast is constructed. See "Usage" below. Src: Source input of the forecast Other style settings are self-explanatory. 2. Usage This tool can be used to forecast future trends but also to indicate which historical variations have the highest degree of similarity/dissimilarity between the observations in the orange zone. The forecasting window determines the prices segment (in orange) to be used as a reference for the search of the most similar/dissimilar historical price segment (in green) within the gray area. Most forecasting techniques highly benefit from a detrended series. Due to the nature of this method, we highly recommend applying it to a detrended and periodic series. You can see above the method is applied on a smooth periodic oscillator and a momentum oscillator. The construction of the forecast is made from the price changes obtained in the green area, denoted as w(t) . Using the "Cumulative" options we construct the forecast from the cumulative sum of w(t) . Finally, we add the most recent price value to this cumulated series. Using the "Mean" options will add the series w(t) with the mean of the prices within the orange segment. Finally the "Linreg" will add the series w(t) to an extrapolated linear regression fit to the prices within the orange segment.
Pine Script™ indicator
by LuxAlgo
109
Yield Curve Inversion IndicatorIntroduction The last time (as of this publishing) that this indicator detected an inverted interest rate yield curve was on February 20th, 2020 at 12:30pm EST, the afternoon before the S&P500 began one of its largest crashes in US history. The vast majority of major economic recessions since the 1950's have been preceded by an interest rate yield curve inversion. I created this indicator originally as an input to study the impacts of more conservative risk management on quantitative trading strategies following a yield curve inversion event. It is being shared with the community as a quick indicator to check to see the comparative status of short term and long term interest rates, and as an indicator where you can easily check to see if we are experiencing an inverted yield curve in real-time. Background of the significance of an inverted yield curve: "What an inverted yield curve really means is that most investors believe that short-term interest rates are going to fall sharply at some point in the future. As a practical matter, recessions usually cause interest rates to fall. Historically, inversions of the yield curve have preceded recessions in the U.S. Due to this historical correlation, the yield curve is often seen as a way to predict the turning points of the business cycle. When the yield curve inverts, short-term interest rates become higher than long-term rates. This type of yield curve is the rarest of the three main curve types and is considered to be a predictor of economic recession. Because of the rarity of yield curve inversions, they typically draw attention from all parts of the financial world." (www.investopedia.com) Settings and Usage This indicator pulls in pricing data from tickers that represent short term and long term interest rates, and compares them. The red line represents short term interest rates, and the green line represents long term interest rates. When the red line is above the green line, it indicates that we are experiencing a yield curve inversion. Small blue crosses also appear on the bottom of the indicator during an inversion to further highlight the event visually. This indicator pulls in the same information on the same two interest rate tickers regardless of what chart it is applied to. Other Thoughts This script uses the f_secureSecurity function as a best practice. For those that are versed in PineScript, code from this indicator could be adapted to be applied to an interest rate chart that allows custom alerts to be created the moment that there is an inverted interest rate yield curve.
Pine Script™ indicator
by TradeAutomation
Pivot High/Low Analysis & Forecast [LuxAlgo]Returns pivot points high/low alongside the percentage change between one pivot and the previous one (Δ%) and the distance between the same type of pivots in bars (Δt). The trailing mean for each of these metrics is returned on a dashboard on the chart. The indicator also returns an estimate of the future time position of the pivot points. This indicator by its very nature is not real-time and is meant for descriptive analysis alongside other components of the script. This is normal behavior for scripts detecting pivots as a part of a system and it is important you are aware the pivot labels are not designed to be traded in real-time themselves 🔶 USAGE The indicator can provide information helping the user to infer the position of future pivot points. This information is directly used in the indicator to provide such forecasting. Note that each metric is calculated relative to the same type of pivot points. It is also common for analysts to use pivot points for the construction of various figures, getting the percentage change and distance for each pivot point can allow them to eventually filter out points of non-interest. 🔹 Forecast We use the trailing mean of the distance between respective pivots to estimate the time position of future pivot points, this can be useful to estimate the location of future tops/bottoms. The time position of the forecasted pivot is given by a vertical dashed line on the chart. We can see a successful application of this method below: Above we see the forecasted pivots for BTCUSD15. The forecast of interest being the pivot high. We highlight the forecast position with a blue dotted line for reference. After some time we obtain a new pivot high with a new forecast. However, we can see that the time location of this new pivot high matches perfectly with the prior forecast. The position in time for the forecast is given by: x1_ph + E x1_pl + E where x1_ph denotes the position in time of the most recent pivot high. x1_pl denotes the position in time of the most recent pivot low and E the average distance between respective pivot points. 🔶 SETTINGS Length: Window size for the detection of pivot points. Show Forecasted Pivots: Display forecast of future pivot points. 🔹 Dashboard Dashboard Location: Location of the dashboard on the chart Dashboard Size: Size of the dashboard on the chart Text/Frame Color: Determines the color of the frame grid as well as the text color
Pine Script™ indicator
by LuxAlgo
32
Auto Fib Time Zones and Trend-Based Fib Time by DGTFibonacci time zones, based on the Fibonacci number sequence, are vertical lines that represent potential areas where a swing high, low, or reversal could occur. Trend-Based Fib Time shows probable price corrections in an existing trend. A useful tool to use in addition to Elliot Wave counting, Fib Time helps to identify how far the wave is likely to travel Please note, Time zones aren't concerned with price, only time Disclaimer : Trading success is all about following your trading strategy and the indicators should fit within your trading strategy, and not to be traded upon solely The script is for informational and educational purposes only. Use of the script does not constitute professional and/or financial advice. You alone have the sole responsibility of evaluating the script output and risks associated with the use of the script. In exchange for using the script, you agree not to hold dgtrd TradingView user liable for any possible claim for damages arising from any decision you make based on use of the script
Pine Script™ indicator
by dgtrd
83
Monte Carlo Range Forecast [DW]This is an experimental study designed to forecast the range of price movement from a specified starting point using a Monte Carlo simulation. Monte Carlo experiments are a broad class of computational algorithms that utilize random sampling to derive real world numerical results. These types of algorithms have a number of applications in numerous fields of study including physics, engineering, behavioral sciences, climate forecasting, computer graphics, gaming AI, mathematics, and finance. Although the applications vary, there is a typical process behind the majority of Monte Carlo methods: -> First, a distribution of possible inputs is defined. -> Next, values are generated randomly from the distribution. -> The values are then fed through some form of deterministic algorithm. -> And lastly, the results are aggregated over some number of iterations. In this study, the Monte Carlo process used generates a distribution of aggregate pseudorandom linear price returns summed over a user defined period, then plots standard deviations of the outcomes from the mean outcome generate forecast regions. The pseudorandom process used in this script relies on a modified Wichmann-Hill pseudorandom number generator (PRNG) algorithm. Wichmann-Hill is a hybrid generator that uses three linear congruential generators (LCGs) with different prime moduli. Each LCG within the generator produces an independent, uniformly distributed number between 0 and 1. The three generated values are then summed and modulo 1 is taken to deliver the final uniformly distributed output. Because of its long cycle length, Wichmann-Hill is a fantastic generator to use on TV since it's extremely unlikely that you'll ever see a cycle repeat. The resulting pseudorandom output from this generator has a minimum repetition cycle length of 6,953,607,871,644. Fun fact: Wichmann-Hill is a widely used PRNG in various software applications. For example, Excel 2003 and later uses this algorithm in its RAND function, and it was the default generator in Python up to v2.2. The generation algorithm in this script takes the Wichmann-Hill algorithm, and uses a multi-stage transformation process to generate the results. First, a parent seed is selected. This can either be a fixed value, or a dynamic value. The dynamic parent value is produced by taking advantage of Pine's timenow variable behavior. It produces a variable parent seed by using a frozen ratio of timenow/time. Because timenow always reflects the current real time when frozen and the time variable reflects the chart's beginning time when frozen, the ratio of these values produces a new number every time the cache updates. After a parent seed is selected, its value is then fed through a uniformly distributed seed array generator, which generates multiple arrays of pseudorandom "children" seeds. The seeds produced in this step are then fed through the main generators to produce arrays of pseudorandom simulated outcomes, and a pseudorandom series to compare with the real series. The main generators within this script are designed to (at least somewhat) model the stochastic nature of financial time series data. The first step in this process is to transform the uniform outputs of the Wichmann-Hill into outputs that are normally distributed. In this script, the transformation is done using an estimate of the normal distribution quantile function. Quantile functions, otherwise known as percent-point or inverse cumulative distribution functions, specify the value of a random variable such that the probability of the variable being within the value's boundary equals the input probability. The quantile equation for a normal probability distribution is μ + σ(√2)erf^-1(2(p - 0.5)) where μ is the mean of the distribution, σ is the standard deviation, erf^-1 is the inverse Gauss error function, and p is the probability. Because erf^-1() does not have a simple, closed form interpretation, it must be approximated. To keep things lightweight in this approximation, I used a truncated Maclaurin Series expansion for this function with precomputed coefficients and rolled out operations to avoid nested looping. This method provides a decent approximation of the error function without completely breaking floating point limits or sucking up runtime memory. Note that there are plenty of more robust techniques to approximate this function, but their memory needs very. I chose this method specifically because of runtime favorability. To generate a pseudorandom approximately normally distributed variable, the uniformly distributed variable from the Wichmann-Hill algorithm is used as the input probability for the quantile estimator. Now from here, we get a pretty decent output that could be used itself in the simulation process. Many Monte Carlo simulations and random price generators utilize a normal variable. However, if you compare the outputs of this normal variable with the actual returns of the real time series, you'll find that the variability in shocks (random changes) doesn't quite behave like it does in real data. This is because most real financial time series data is more complex. Its distribution may be approximately normal at times, but the variability of its distribution changes over time due to various underlying factors. In light of this, I believe that returns behave more like a convoluted product distribution rather than just a raw normal. So the next step to get our procedurally generated returns to more closely emulate the behavior of real returns is to introduce more complexity into our model. Through experimentation, I've found that a return series more closely emulating real returns can be generated in a three step process: -> First, generate multiple independent, normally distributed variables simultaneously. -> Next, apply pseudorandom weighting to each variable ranging from -1 to 1, or some limits within those bounds. This modulates each series to provide more variability in the shocks by producing product distributions. -> Lastly, add the results together to generate the final pseudorandom output with a convoluted distribution. This adds variable amounts of constructive and destructive interference to produce a more "natural" looking output. In this script, I use three independent normally distributed variables multiplied by uniform product distributed variables. The first variable is generated by multiplying a normal variable by one uniformly distributed variable. This produces a bit more tailedness (kurtosis) than a normal distribution, but nothing too extreme. The second variable is generated by multiplying a normal variable by two uniformly distributed variables. This produces moderately greater tails in the distribution. The third variable is generated by multiplying a normal variable by three uniformly distributed variables. This produces a distribution with heavier tails. For additional control of the output distributions, the uniform product distributions are given optional limits. These limits control the boundaries for the absolute value of the uniform product variables, which affects the tails. In other words, they limit the weighting applied to the normally distributed variables in this transformation. All three sets are then multiplied by user defined amplitude factors to adjust presence, then added together to produce our final pseudorandom return series with a convoluted product distribution. Once we have the final, more "natural" looking pseudorandom series, the values are recursively summed over the forecast period to generate a simulated result. This process of generation, weighting, addition, and summation is repeated over the user defined number of simulations with different seeds generated from the parent to produce our array of initial simulated outcomes. After the initial simulation array is generated, the max, min, mean and standard deviation of this array are calculated, and the values are stored in holding arrays on each iteration to be called upon later. Reference difference series and price values are also stored in holding arrays to be used in our comparison plots. In this script, I use a linear model with simple returns rather than compounding log returns to generate the output. The reason for this is that in generating outputs this way, we're able to run our simulations recursively from the beginning of the chart, then apply scaling and anchoring post-process. This allows a greater conservation of runtime memory than the alternative, making it more suitable for doing longer forecasts with heavier amounts of simulations in TV's runtime environment. From our starting time, the previous bar's price, volatility, and optional drift (expected return) are factored into our holding arrays to generate the final forecast parameters. After these parameters are computed, the range forecast is produced. The basis value for the ranges is the mean outcome of the simulations that were run. Then, quarter standard deviations of the simulated outcomes are added to and subtracted from the basis up to 3σ to generate the forecast ranges. All of these values are plotted and colorized based on their theoretical probability density. The most likely areas are the warmest colors, and least likely areas are the coolest colors. An information panel is also displayed at the starting time which shows the starting time and price, forecast type, parent seed value, simulations run, forecast bars, total drift, mean, standard deviation, max outcome, min outcome, and bars remaining. The interesting thing about simulated outcomes is that although the probability distribution of each simulation is not normal, the distribution of different outcomes converges to a normal one with enough steps. In light of this, the probability density of outcomes is highest near the initial value + total drift, and decreases the further away from this point you go. This makes logical sense since the central path is the easiest one to travel. Given the ever changing state of markets, I find this tool to be best suited for shorter term forecasts. However, if the movements of price are expected to remain relatively stable, longer term forecasts may be equally as valid. There are many possible ways for users to apply this tool to their analysis setups. For example, the forecast ranges may be used as a guide to help users set risk targets. Or, the generated levels could be used in conjunction with other indicators for meaningful confluence signals. More advanced users could even extrapolate the functions used within this script for various purposes, such as generating pseudorandom data to test systems on, perform integration and approximations, etc. These are just a few examples of potential uses of this script. How you choose to use it to benefit your trading, analysis, and coding is entirely up to you. If nothing else, I think this is a pretty neat script simply for the novelty of it. ---------- How To Use: When you first add the script to your chart, you will be prompted to confirm the starting date and time, number of bars to forecast, number of simulations to run, and whether to include drift assumption. You will also be prompted to confirm the forecast type. There are two types to choose from: -> End Result - This uses the values from the end of the simulation throughout the forecast interval. -> Developing - This uses the values that develop from bar to bar, providing a real-time outlook. You can always update these settings after confirmation as well. Once these inputs are confirmed, the script will boot up and automatically generate the forecast in a separate pane. Note that if there is no bar of data at the time you wish to start the forecast, the script will automatically detect use the next available bar after the specified start time. From here, you can now control the rest of the settings. The "Seeding Settings" section controls the initial seed value used to generate the children that produce the simulations. In this section, you can control whether the seed is a fixed value, or a dynamic one. Since selecting the dynamic parent option will change the seed value every time you change the settings or refresh your chart, there is a "Regenerate" input built into the script. This input is a dummy input that isn't connected to any of the calculations. The purpose of this input is to force an update of the dynamic parent without affecting the generator or forecast settings. Note that because we're running a limited number of simulations, different parent seeds will typically yield slightly different forecast ranges. When using a small number of simulations, you will likely see a higher amount of variance between differently seeded results because smaller numbers of sampled simulations yield a heavier bias. The more simulations you run, the smaller this variance will become since the outcomes become more convergent toward the same distribution, so the differences between differently seeded forecasts will become more marginal. When using a dynamic parent, pay attention to the dispersion of ranges. When you find a set of ranges that is dispersed how you like with your configuration, set your fixed parent value to the parent seed that shows in the info panel. This will allow you to replicate that dispersion behavior again in the future. An important thing to note when settings alerts on the plotted levels, or using them as components for signals in other scripts, is to decide on a fixed value for your parent seed to avoid minor repainting due to seed changes. When the parent seed is fixed, no repainting occurs. The "Amplitude Settings" section controls the amplitude coefficients for the three differently tailed generators. These amplitude factors will change the difference series output for each simulation by controlling how aggressively each series moves. When "Adjust Amplitude Coefficients" is disabled, all three coefficients are set to 1. Note that if you expect volatility to significantly diverge from its historical values over the forecast interval, try experimenting with these factors to match your anticipation. The "Weighting Settings" section controls the weighting boundaries for the three generators. These weighting limits affect how tailed the distributions in each generator are, which in turn affects the final series outputs. The maximum absolute value range for the weights is . When "Limit Generator Weights" is disabled, this is the range that is automatically used. The last set of inputs is the "Display Settings", where you can control the visual outputs. From here, you can select to display either "Forecast" or "Difference Comparison" via the "Output Display Type" dropdown tab. "Forecast" is the type displayed by default. This plots the end result or developing forecast ranges. There is an option with this display type to show the developing extremes of the simulations. This option is enabled by default. There's also an option with this display type to show one of the simulated price series from the set alongside actual prices. This allows you to visually compare simulated prices alongside the real prices. "Difference Comparison" allows you to visually compare a synthetic difference series from the set alongside the actual difference series. This display method is primarily useful for visually tuning the amplitude and weighting settings of the generators. There are also info panel settings on the bottom, which allow you to control size, colors, and date format for the panel. It's all pretty simple to use once you get the hang of it. So play around with the settings and see what kinds of forecasts you can generate! ---------- ADDITIONAL NOTES & DISCLAIMERS Although I've done a number of things within this script to keep runtime demands as low as possible, the fact remains that this script is fairly computationally heavy. Because of this, you may get random timeouts when using this script. This could be due to either random drops in available runtime on the server, using too many simulations, or running the simulations over too many bars. If it's just a random drop in runtime on the server, hide and unhide the script, re-add it to the chart, or simply refresh the page. If the timeout persists after trying this, then you'll need to adjust your settings to a less demanding configuration. Please note that no specific claims are being made in regards to this script's predictive accuracy. It must be understood that this model is based on randomized price generation with assumed constant drift and dispersion from historical data before the starting point. Models like these not consider the real world factors that may influence price movement (economic changes, seasonality, macro-trends, instrument hype, etc.), nor the changes in sample distribution that may occur. In light of this, it's perfectly possible for price data to exceed even the most extreme simulated outcomes. The future is uncertain, and becomes increasingly uncertain with each passing point in time. Predictive models of any type can vary significantly in performance at any point in time, and nobody can guarantee any specific type of future performance. When using forecasts in making decisions, DO NOT treat them as any form of guarantee that values will fall within the predicted range. When basing your trading decisions on any trading methodology or utility, predictive or not, you do so at your own risk. No guarantee is being issued regarding the accuracy of this forecast model. Forecasting is very far from an exact science, and the results from any forecast are designed to be interpreted as potential outcomes rather than anything concrete. With that being said, when applied prudently and treated as "general case scenarios", forecast models like these may very well be potentially beneficial tools to have in the arsenal.
Editors' picks
Pine Script™ indicator
by DonovanWall
76
Forecast OscillatorThe Forecast Oscillator is a technical indicator that compares a security close price to its time series forecast. The time series forecast function name is "tsf" and it calculates the projection of the price trend for the next bar. The Forecast Oscillator and therefore the time series forecast are based on linear regression. The time series forecast indicator is equal to the sum of two other indicators: the linear regression (LinearReg) and the linear regression slope (LinearReg_Slope). If the Forecast Oscillator stays above the zero line for an extended period, then it signals that the price may rise in the future and if it stays below the zero line for an extended period, then it signals a coming fall in the security price. The indicator name is "Forecast Oscillator" and it accepts two arguments. The first argument is the time series that is used in the next bar forecast (It is usually the close price) and the second one is the period that will be passed to the time series forecast function during calculation . The technical analysis indicator returns a value in percentage that corresponds to the close price minus the previous value of the time series forecast, multiplied by 100 and divided by the close price. Author's Note: Just look at the exaggerated movements of the oscillator especially in trend changes . Some examples can be experienced on the chart in rectangles. Kıvanç Özbilgiç
Pine Script™ indicator
by KivancOzbilgic
46
Garch (1,1) ModelThe Garch (General Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) model is a non-linear time series model that uses past data to forecast future variance. The Garch (1,1) formula is: Garch = (gamma * Long Run Variance) + (alpha * Squared Lagged Returns) + (beta * Lagged Variance) The gamma, alpha, and beta values are all weights used in the Garch calculations. According to RiskMetrics by JP Morgan, the optimal beta weight is 0.94, but this figure is highly disputed in the academic realm. The biggest problem academics and economists have with the 0.94 figure is that JP Morgan used monthly data to come to this number, meaning it does not take other time frames into account. Because of the disputed nature of what beta should be, this script will automatically calculate the beta weight for you in real time, taking into account the time frame you're using and realized variance, by using the Minimum Sum of Squared Errors Method. The gamma and alpha weights are also calculated for you. Even though the Garch formula provides today's projected variance, today's projected deviation is also calculated. This is done by taking the square root of Garch. Additionally, if you want to project the variance or deviation for as many days forward as you want, you can. In order to project the variance and deviation beyond just today, these equations are used: Projected Variance = Long Run Variance + (alpha + beta)^Days Forward * (Garch - Long Run Variance) Projected Deviation = sqrt(Projected Variance) How to use this model: 1st. Decide the type of data you want: Projected Variance in % or Projected Deviation in %. 2nd. Decide how many days you want projected forward. If you input 0, you will get projections for today. If you input 1, you will get projections for tomorrow, and etc. That's it. If you have any further questions, I left detailed comments in the code explaining each step, as best as I could.
Pine Script™ indicator
by SegaRKO
7
Grand Trend Forecasting - A Simple And Original Approach Today we'll link time series forecasting with signal processing in order to provide an original and funny trend forecasting method, the post share lot of information, if you just want to see how to use the indicator then go to the section "Using The Indicator". Time series forecasting is an area dealing with the prediction of future values of a series by using a specific model, the model is the main tool that is used for forecasting, and is often an expression based on a set of predictor terms and parameters, for example the linear regression (model) is a 1st order polynomial (expression) using 2 parameters and a predictor variable ax + b . Today we won't be using the linear regression nor the LSMA. In time series analysis we can describe the time series with a model, in the case of the closing price a simple model could be as follows : Price = Trend + Cycles + Noise The variables of the model are the components, such model is additive since we add the component with each others, we should be familiar with each components of the model, the trend represent a simple long term variation of high amplitude, the cycles are periodic fluctuations centered around 0 of varying period and amplitude, the noise component represent shorter term irregular variations with mean 0. As a trader we are mostly interested by the cycles and the trend, altho the cycles are relatively more technical to trade and can constitute parasitic fluctuations (think about retracements in a trend affecting your trend indicator, causing potential false signals). If you are curious, in signal processing combining components has a specific name, "synthesis" , here we are dealing with additive synthesis, other type of synthesis are more specific to audio processing and are relatively more complex, but could be used in technical analysis. So what to do with our components ? If we want to trade the trend, we should estimate right ? Estimating the trend component involve removing the cycle and noise component from the price, if you have read stuff about filters you should know where i'am going, yep, we should use filters, in the case of keeping the trend we can use a simple moving average of relatively high period, and here we go. However the lag problem, which is recurrent, come back again, we end up with information easier to interpret (here the trend, which is a simple fluctuation such as a line or other smooth curve) at the cost of decision timing, that is unfortunate but as i said the information, here the moving average output, is relatively simple, and could be easily forecasted right ? If you plot a moving average of high period it would be easier for you to forecast its future values. And thats what we aim to do today, provide an estimate of the trend that should be easy to forecast, and should fit to the price relatively well in order to produce forecast that could determine the position of future closing prices observations. Estimating And Forecasting The Trend The parameter of the indicator dealing with the estimation of the trend is length , with higher values of length attenuating the cycle and noise component in the price, note however that high values of length can return a really long term trend unlike a simple moving average, so a small value of length, 14 for example can still produce relatively correct estimate of trend. here length = 14. The rough estimate of the trend is t in the code, and is an IIR filter, that is, it is based on recursion. Now i'll pass on the filter design explanation but in short, weights are constants, with higher weights allocated to the previous length values of the filter, you can see on the code that the first part of t is similar to an exponential moving average with : t(n) = 0.9t(n-length) + 0.1*Price However while the EMA only use the precedent value for the recursion, here we use the precedent length value, this would just output a noisy and really slow output, therefore in order to create a better fit we add : 0.9*(t(n-length) - t(n-2length)) , and this create the rough trend estimate that you can see in blue. On the parameters, 0.9 is used since it gives the best estimate in my opinion, higher values would create more periodic output and lower values would just create a rougher output. The blue line still contain a residual of the cycle/noise component, this is why it is smoothed with a simple moving average of period length. If you are curious, a filter estimating the trend but still containing noisy fluctuations is called "Notch" filter, such filter would depending on the cutoff remove/attenuate mid term cyclic fluctuations while preserving the trend and the noise, its the opposite of a bandpass filter. In order to forecast values, we simply sum our trend estimate with the trend estimate change with period equal to the forecasting horizon period, this is a really really simple forecasting method, but it can produce decent results, it can also allows the forecast to start from the last point of the trend estimate. Using The Indicator We explained the length parameter in the precedent section, src is the input series which the trend is estimated, forecast determine the forecasting horizon, recommend values for forecast should be equal to length, length/2 or length*2, altho i strongly recommend length. here length and forecast are both equal to 14 . The corrective parameter affect the trend estimate, it reduce the overshoot and can led to a curve that might fit better to the price. The indicator with the non corrective version above, and the corrective one below. The source parameter determine the source of the forecast, when "Noisy" is selected the source is the blue line, and produce a noisy forecast, when "Smooth" is selected the source is the moving average of t , this create a smoother forecast. The width interval control...the width of the intervals, they can be seen above and under the forecast plot, they are constructed by adding/subtracting the forecast with the forecast moving average absolute error with respect to the price. Prediction intervals are often associated with a probability (determining the probability of future values being between the interval) here we can't determine such probability with accuracy, this require (i think) an analysis of the forecasting distribution as well as assumptions on the distribution of the forecasting error. Finally it is possible to see historical forecasts, that is, forecasts previously generated by checking the "Show Historical Forecasts" option. Examples Good forecasts mostly occur when the price is close to the trend estimate, this include the following highlighted periods on AMD 15TF with default settings : We can see the same thing at the end of EURUSD : However we can't always obtain suitable fits, here it is isn't sufficient on BTCUSD : We can see wide intervals, we could change length or use the corrective option to get better results, another option is to use a log scale. We will end the examples with the log SPX, who posses a linear trend, so for example a linear model such as a linear regression would be really adapted, lets see how the indicator perform : Not a great fit, we could try to use an higher length value and use "Smooth" : Most recent fits are quite decent. Conclusions A forecasting indicator has been presented in this post. The indicator use an original approach toward estimating the trend component in the closing price. Of course i should have given statistics related to the forecasting error, however such analysis is worth doing with better methods and in more advanced environment allowing for optimization. But we have learned some stuff related to signal processing as well as time series analysis, seeing a time series as the sum of various components is really helpful when it comes to make sense of chaotic and noisy series and is a basic topic in time series analysis. You can see that in this new year i work harder on the visual of my indicators without trying to fall in the label addict trap, something that i wasn't really doing before, let me know what do you think of it. Thanks for reading !
Pine Script™ indicator
by alexgrover
25
Scripting Tutorial 7 - Triple Many Moving Averages ResolutionsThis script is for a triple moving average indicator where the user can select from different types of moving averages, price sources, lookback periods and resolutions. Features: - 3 Moving Averages with variable MA types, periods, price sources, resolutions and the ability to disable each individually - Crossovers are plotted on the chart with detailed information regarding the crossover (Ex: 50 SMA crossed over 200 SMA ) - Forecasting available for all three MAs. MA values are forecasted 5 values out and plotted as if a continuation to the MA. - Forecast bias also applies to all forecasting. Bias means we can forecast based on an anticipated bullish, bearish or neutral direction in the market. - To understand bias, please read the source code, or if you can't read the code just send me a message on here or Twitter. Twitter should be linked to my profile. This script is meant as an educational script with well-formatted styling, and references for specific functions.
Pine Script™ indicator
by BigBitsIO
2
Scripting Tutorial 6 - Triple Many Moving Averages ForecastingThis script is for a triple moving average indicator where the user can select from different types of moving averages, price sources and lookback periods. Features: - 3 Moving Averages with variable MA types, periods, price sources and ability to disable each individually - Crossovers are plotted on the chart with detailed information regarding the crossover (Ex: 50 SMA crossed over 200 SMA ) - Forecasting available for all three MAs. MA values are forecasted 5 values out and plotted as if a continuation to the MA. - Forecast bias also applies to all forecasting. Bias means we can forecast based on an anticipated bullish, bearish or neutral direction in the market. - To understand bias, please read the source code, or if you can't read the code just send me a message on here or Twitter. Twitter should be linked on my profile. This script is meant as an educational script with well-formatted styling, and references for specific functions.
Pine Script™ indicator
by BigBitsIO
6
Forecasting - Holt’s Linear Trend ForecastingHolt's Forecasting method Holt (1957) extended simple exponential smoothing to allow the forecasting of data with a trend. This method involves a forecast equation and two smoothing equations (one for the level and one for the trend): Forecast equation: ŷ = l + h * b Level equation: l = alpha * y + (1 - alpha) * (l + b) Trend equation: b = beta * (l - l) + (1 - beta) * b where: l (or l) denotes an estimate of the level of the series at time t, b (or b) denotes an estimate of the trend (slope) of the series at time t, alpha is the smoothing parameter for the level, 0 ≤ alpha ≤ 1, and beta is the smoothing parameter for the trend, 0 ≤ beta ≤ 1. As with simple exponential smoothing, the level equation here shows that l is a weighted average of observation y and the one-step-ahead training forecast for time t, here given by l+b. The trend equation shows that b is a weighted average of the estimated trend at time t based on l-l and b, the previous estimate of the trend. The forecast function is not flat but trending. The h-step-ahead forecast is equal to the last estimated level plus h times the last estimated trend value. Hence the forecasts are a linear function of h.
Pine Script™ indicator
by capissimo
3
Stationary Extrapolated Levels OscillatorIntroduction The oscillator version of the stationary extrapolated levels indicator. The methodology behind the extrapolated levels where to minimize the risk of making a decision based only on a forecast, therefore the indicator plotted levels in order to determine possible reversal points, signals where generated when the detrended series crossed over/under those levels. The Indicator First we detrend the price, this is because forecasting the trend is often harder than a series without trend (stationarity > non-stationarity) , then we forecast the detrended price with a linear extrapolation over a period of length and apply a max/min filter twice to the forecast, the max/min filters are just the highest and lowest function in pine. So the max/min filter have lag length/2 , by applying it two times we have a lag of length which is the period of the forecast. Because we use highest and lowest we can apply min-max normalization in the form of : x' = (x - min(x, min'))/(max(x,max') - min(x, min')) where x is the detrended price, max' the highest of the forecast of x and min' the lowest of the forecast of x . This result in a scaled oscillator in a range of (1,0), When the indicator is equal to 1 or 0 there are high chances of reversals, more in depth this mean that the detrended price have crossed the highest/lowest of the forecast, when the indicator is equal to 0 or 1 for a long time this mean that the forecast was quite inaccurate, you can minimize risk by focusing on the cross between the detrended price and the 0.8/0.2 levels. Conclusion I've shown an oscillator version of my previous "Stationary extrapolated levels" indicator, the method involving taking the highest and lowest of the forecast is a great way to minimize the risk involved by time-series forecasting driven decisions. So i hope you find an use to it. Thanks for reading !
Pine Script™ indicator
by alexgrover
13