Divergence: RSI vs. PriceHey everyone!
In my years of trading, I've really come to love Reversal Strategies and my favorite is in the form of a DIVERGENCE!
Today, I took some time to put together an Educational Video on:
1) What a Divergence Is?
2) How to Spot them!
&
3) How to Trade them!
I hope you find this helpful!
**Tips
- Divergence is never good enough to trade alone, YOU NEED CONFIRMATION!
- The longer the Divergence takes, the more reliable it is
- Change in Momentum is KEY!
M-oscillator
RSI Indicator LIES! Untold Truth About RSI!
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a classic technical indicator that is applied to identify the overbought and oversold states of the market.
While the RSI looks simple to use, there is one important element in it that many traders forget about: it's a lagging indicator.
This means it reacts to past price movements rather than predicting future ones. This inherent lag can sometimes mislead traders, particularly when the markets are volatile or trade in a strong bullish/bearish trend.
In this article, we will discuss the situations when RSI indicator will lie to you. We will go through the instances when the indicator should not be relied and not used on, and I will explain to you the best strategy to apply RSI.
Relative Strength Index analyzes the price movements over a specific time period and displays a score between 0 and 100.
Generally, an RSI above 70 suggests an overbought condition, while an RSI below 30 suggests an oversold condition.
By itself, the overbought and overbought conditions give poor signals, simply because the market may remain in these conditions for a substantial period of time.
Take a look at a price action on GBPCHF. After the indicator showed the oversold condition, the pair dropped 150 pips lower before the reversal initiated.
So as an extra confirmation , traders prefer to look for RSI divergence - the situation when the price action and indicator move in the opposite direction.
Above is the example of RSI divergence: Crude Oil formed a sequence of higher highs, while the indicator formed a higher high with a consequent lower high. That confirmed the overbought state of the market, and a bearish reversal followed.
However, only few knows that even a divergence will provide accurate signals only in some particular instances.
When you identified RSI divergence, make sure that it happened after a test of an important key level.
Historical structures increase the probability that the RSI divergence will accurately indicate the reversal.
Above is the example how RSI divergence gave a false signal on USDCAD.
However, the divergence that followed after a test of a key level, gave a strong bearish signal.
There are much better situations when RSI can be applied, but we will discuss later on, for now, the main conclusion is that
RSI Divergence beyond key levels most of the time will provide low accuracy signals.
But there is one particular case, when RSI divergence will give the worst, the most terrible signal.
In very rare situations, the market may trade in a strong bullish trend, in the uncharted territory, where there are no historical price levels.
In such cases, RSI bullish divergence will constantly lie , making retail traders short constantly and lose their money.
Here is what happens with Gold on a daily.
The market is trading in the uncharted territory, updated the All-Time Highs daily.
Even though there is a clear overbought state and a divergence,
the market keeps growing.
Only few knows, however, that even though RSI is considered to be a reversal, counter trend indicator, it can be applied for trend following trading.
On a daily time frame, after the price sets a new high, wait for a pullback to a key horizontal support.
Your bullish signal, will be a bearish divergence on an hourly time frame.
Here is how the price retested a support based on a previous ATH on Gold. After it approached a broken structure, we see a confirmed bearish divergence.
That gives a perfect trend-following signal to buy the market.
A strong bullish rally followed then.
RSI indicator is a very powerful tool, that many traders apply incorrectly.
When the market is trading in a strong trend, this indicator can be perfectly applied for following the trend, not going against that.
I hope that the cases that I described will help you not lose money, trading with Relative Strength Index.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
How to read mean returns (Expand the indicator)Mean returns is a trend detection and overextension indicator. It oscillates around the value of 0. The mean return line in reality is the orange one as well as the blue one. The difference is in the number of data points into the past that they consider. Since the value of those lines is the expected value of the returns in period t, then if it's over 0 the expectation is that returns will be positive, as previously the price has been trending higher. The opposite being true as well.
Meanwhile, the red and green line represent the expected upwards and expected downwards returns. That means you only take the expected value for the days in which the return was positive or negative accordingly. Therefore, if the mean returns are over the expected upwards returns the price is likely to be overextended, and vice versa.
Other adjustments were made to consider the current candle. This code will remain private, as it took a lot of effort to invent. I hope you are able to understand the math. If you can't, I hope this at least allowed you to read the meaning of the indicator through this.
Trading with RSI: The Bad, The Good and Even BetterIn this video I explain how to use RSI (Relative Strength Index) to make trading decisions. You'll learn how to properly use RSI oversold condition, combining low timeframe price action signals with high level context analysis.
Besides of explaining three different strategies (the bad, the good and even better) I'll do back-testing on historical data to demonstrate how those strategies translate into real trading results.
Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
1-Indicator Strategy For Beginners...The Stochastic Hey Rich Friends,
Happy Wednesday!
I wanted to share one of my top 3 favorite indicators with you.... The Stochastic (STOCH). As a leading (vs lagging) indicator, it is perfect for beginners because you can find entry and exit signals with only a few key details.
Adding the STOCH to your chart:
1. Search the indicators for "STOCHASTIC" and click once to add to your chart. The only thing that I modify is the thickness of the lines but feel free to make further changes to your liking.
2. Make sure that the "indicators and financial values" option is ON. Right-click your scales, select labels, and make sure "indicators and financial values" is checkmarked.
Entry signals for a buy:
- The STOCH is facing up
- The fast line (blue) is above the slow line (orange)
- The STOCH has crossed above the 20% level, from oversold, back into the blue-shaded area
Exit the trade or take profit once the STOCH has crossed back below the 80% level, from overbought, into the blue-shaded area.
Entry Signals for a sell:
- The STOCH is facing down
- The slow line (orange) is above the fast line (blue)
- The STOCH has crossed below the 80% level, from overbought, back into the blue shaded area
Exit the trade or take profit once the STOCH has crossed back above the 20% level, from oversold, into the blue-shaded area.
I hope that this video helps someone become a more independent and profitable trader. Let me know in the comments if you try this strategy!
Peace and Profits,
Cha
Don't Get Duped by the RSIWhy This Popular Indicator Can Lead You Astray
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a common technical analysis tool used by traders to gauge whether an asset is overbought (priced too high) or oversold (priced too low). It analyzes price movements over a specific period (often 14 days) and displays a score between 0 and 100. Generally, an RSI above 70 suggests an overbought condition, while an RSI below 30 suggests an oversold condition.
While the RSI seems straightforward, there's a crucial catch: it's a lagging indicator. This means it reacts to past price movements rather than predicting future ones. This inherent lag can sometimes mislead traders, particularly when markets are volatile or trending strongly.
Here's how the RSI's lagging nature can be deceptive:
Overbought Traps: The RSI might reach overbought territory (above 70) during a strong uptrend. However, instead of signaling an imminent reversal, the price could keep climbing, potentially reaching new highs. This can lure traders into believing a correction is coming (based on the high RSI) only to miss out on further gains.
Oversold Deceptions: Conversely, the RSI might dip into oversold territory (below 30) during a downtrend. This could be interpreted as a buying opportunity, anticipating a bounce back. But, in a strong downtrend, the price may continue to fall, and the RSI might stay oversold for extended periods.
How to Use the RSI More Effectively:
Despite its limitations, the RSI can still be a valuable tool when used strategically:
Confirmation Tool: Combine the RSI with other technical indicators or chart patterns for confirmation. For example, an RSI divergence (where the RSI moves in the opposite direction of the price) might strengthen a potential reversal signal.
Identify Trending Markets: The RSI can help identify the strength of a trend. During strong uptrends, the RSI may frequently reach overbought levels without signaling an immediate reversal. Conversely, in downtrends, the RSI may stay oversold for extended periods.
Identify Overbought/Oversold Conditions: While not a precise timing tool, the RSI can indicate when an asset might be nearing extreme price levels, potentially due for a correction. However, be cautious about chasing these signals blindly.
Beyond the RSI:
Remember, the RSI is just one piece of the puzzle. Always consider other factors like market sentiment, news events, and overall price trends when making trading decisions.
Here are some additional tips:
Don't rely solely on technical indicators. Develop a comprehensive trading strategy that considers both technical and fundamental analysis.
Backtest your strategies. Test your trading ideas using historical data to see how they would have performed in different market conditions.
Start small and manage your risk. Don't invest more than you can afford to lose, especially when using potentially deceptive indicators.
By understanding the limitations of the RSI and using it strategically, you can improve your technical analysis skills and make more informed trading decisions.
Double EMA Strategy...For Beginners Hey Rich Friends,
Happy Monday! It's a new week which means many new opportunities to get into the market...but it doesn't mean that you have to take all of them.
Make sure you focus on finding the best setups by sticking to your plan and following your confirmation checklist. The best out of 25 will give you a good idea of your win/loss ratio.
If you are still struggling to find a SIMPLE strategy that works for you, try using this Double EMA strategy that I apply to my trades. Let me know what you think and if it works for you!
Today we will cover:
1. How to use EMAs on Tradingview
2. Double EMA Strategy
3. Feel confident taking a buy or sell in Forex trades
4. Trade with the trend
Peace and Profits,
Cha
Where to Put Your TP and SL | Learn in 10 MinutesHey Rich Friends,
This quick video will explain how I easily find my TP and SL for my Forex Trades. I've noticed how many new traders struggle with this, so hopefully this video will help. Here is what I do:
1 . Identify the overall trend of the market.
It is important to understand that a Selling market will look like a roller coaster going up, have more red candles and it will continue to create Lower Highs and Lower Lows. A Buying market will look like a roller coaster going down, have more green candles, and continue to create Higher Highs and Higher Lows. This is very important.
2 . Collect my confirmations for the potential trade. Here are some questions I ask myself:
- What color is the current candle?
- Are the candles above or below my EMAs?
- Have the EMAs crossed?
- Is my Momentum indicator facing up or down? Is it positive or negative?
- Is my Stochastic facing up or down? Is the Indicator's financial value above 50?
These are the answers you should get:
- Bullish/Buying: Green, Above, Up, Over, Higher, and Positive
- Bearish/Selling: Red, Below, Down, Under, Lower and Negative
3. Enter the market at Market Execution or set a Pending Order.
4. Choose my TP and SL using the Long position tool for buying and the Short position tool for selling.
Buys: Place TP above previous high and SL below the previous low
Sells: Place TP below previous low and SL above the previous high
- Peace and Profits, Cha
Indicators for trading using Bill Williams' Profitunity strategyI published 3 indicators for trading using Bill Williams' Profitunity strategy. For each indicator, I have added a visual and detailed description in English and Russian. In this post I will briefly describe these indicators and how I use them together.
AFDSA indicator (Alligator + Fractals + Divergent & Squat Bars + Signal Alerts)
Includes Williams Alligator, Williams Fractals, Divergent Bars, Market Facilitation Index, Highest and Lowest Bars, maximum or minimum peak of the Awesome Oscillator, and signal alerts based on Bill Williams' Profitunity strategy:
Bullish and Bearish Divergent Bar Signal + Squat Bar + Green Bar + Fake Bar + Awesome Oscillator Color Change + AO Divergence.
Crossing the green line (Lips) of an open Alligator.
Formation of a fractal.
Signal about the breakdown of the last upper or lower fractal.
Signal about the appearance of a new maximum or minimum peak of AO in the interval of 140 bars from the last bar.
I also added an Alligator display for the higher timeframe, for example, if the chart timeframe is 1 hour, then the higher timeframe will automatically be 4 hours, if the chart timeframe is 4 hours, then the higher timeframe will be 1 day, etc.
AOE Oscillator (Awesome Oscillator + Bars count lines + EMA Line)
Includes the Awesome Oscillator with two vertical lines at a distance of 100 and 140 bars from the last bar to determine the third Elliott wave by the maximum peak of AO in the interval from 100 to 140 bars according to Bill Williams' Profitunity strategy. Additionally, a faster EMA line is displayed.
I also added display of the AO line for the lower timeframe instead of the EMA line if the Moving Average Line values (method, length and source) are equal to the Awesome Oscillator values in the indicator settings. For example, if the chart timeframe is 1 day, then the lower timeframe will automatically be 4 hours, if the chart timeframe is 4 hours, then the lower timeframe will be 1 hour, etc.
VBCHL indicator (Visible bars count on chart + highest/lowest bars, max/min AO)
The indicator displays the number of visible bars on the screen, including the prices of the highest and lowest bars, the maximum or minimum value of the Awesome Oscillator. The values change dynamically when scrolling or changing the scale of the chart, but with a delay of several seconds, so this feature is included in a separate indicator so as not to slow down the work of other indicators.
Indicator settings
In the AFDSA indicator I use the following settings:
By default, the Squat Bar is colored blue, and all other bars are colored to match the Awesome Oscillator color, except for the Fake bars, which are colored with a lighter AO color. But I also enable the display of "Green" Divergent bars in the "Green Bars > Show" field.
I enable the display of Alligator for higher timeframes in the "Alligator for higher timeframe > Enable" field.
In the indicator style settings, I disable the display of the highest and lowest bars, maximum and minimum AO peak labels, because these labels are also displayed by the VBCHL indicator depending on the number of visible bars in the chart window.
Only after opening a position, I enable all additional alerts in the “Enable all additional alerts” field (after changing this field, you need to re-create the alert for the current chart): crossing the green line of an open Alligator, formation of a fractal, appearance of a new maximum or minimum AO peak.
In the settings of the AOE oscillator, I enable the display of the AO line for the lower timeframe instead of the EMA line, setting the same values in the fields for the Moving Average Line (method, length and source) and Awesome Oscillator.
In the VBCHL indicator settings, I only enable the simple display text style for labels in the "Simple display text style for labels" field.
As a result, when analyzing the current chart, I immediately see all the signals on the chart, the location of the bars relative to the Alligator on the higher timeframe and changes in the Awesome Oscillator on the lower timeframe. And thanks to the VBCHL indicator, I quickly select the desired timeframe for analyzing the 5-wave Elliott impulse, focusing on the interval of 140 bars, and immediately see whether there is divergence between the maximum AO peak and the following lower AO peak in this interval.
How to tell if a Head & Shoulders pattern is voidThere’s been a number of messages today informing me of the lower time frame head and shoulders pattern.
Traders are sometimes caught out with falsely identified head and shoulders patterns, and then the market runs in the opposite direction of that expected as the error is realised causing a energetic surge in price action as traders closes short positions.
How do you identify valid from void?
The last lower time frame (12hr examples used here) head and shoulders pattern printed in March 2022. There was a couple of leading indications this neckline would confirm as resistance at the time of the breakout:
1) RSI confirmed failed support (black circle)
2) Stochastic RSI is crossing down 80. Very bearish.
12hr head and shoulder March 2022
Now lets look above on the current 12hr chart (main chart)
1) RSI resistance is failing, a breakout is evident.
2) Stochastic RSI is crossing up not down! Very bullish.
There you have it. While many traders identify the price action of a head and shoulders pattern in isolation it is an expensive error to ignore what the oscillators are doing at the time of the print.
In almost all of the ideas published by Without Worries, if you look udder the main chart idea you’ll notice “Oscillators” as one of the selected indicators for use in the study. Now you know why!
Ww
HOW-TO: Accumulation Strategy 2024What if instead of buying a stock, crypto, currency only once and holding until we are in profit, we split our strategy capital and buy several times, until the total is in profit ? Yes, that is DCA you’d say. Ok, but what if instead of buying at predetermined intervals, we bought at oversold RSI, or on a double bottom, for example ? That’s the idea behind the Accumulation Strategy, which I’m going to explain in detail in this article.
█ Simple Example
The strategy comes with several features, and the easiest way to explain them is through examples.
The Max Active Deals input allows to limit how many times the strategy can trigger a buy in a trade, just like the pyramiding setting. It can go up to 100.
In this example, the strategy has 10 max active deals. and is using the RSI feature to buy when RSI crosses below a configurable threshold, here 25.
Note: to get stronger signals, the RSI time frame has been set to 1 hour, since the chart is in a 30 min time frame.
In this trade, the strategy bought 8 times (yellow arrows) before selling at take profit, but it could have bought twice more.
█ Take Profit Feature
Customisable in the input tab, this feature allows you to set one or multiple take profit(s). You can set the value in either %, pips, or Auto mode.
To create multiple targets, increase the Number of take profit and set the Step between each TP.
In our previous example, instead of just one, I set 3 TPs with 1% value and a step of 1. The strategy will sell progressively at a quantity split even at each take profit, until the last TP is hit.
Note: Using multiple take profit is often used to improve risk management in trading.
█ Built-in Entry Options
The strategy comes with several built-in indicators, such as the RSI that we’ve seen, but here’s the list:
MTF RSI cross, RSI divergences
MTF Stochastic cross
MTF Bollinger Bands cross
Top & Bottoms
Double Top & bottoms
Higher/Lower Lows/Highs
Custom External Entries
If you want to use ANY external indicator from the TradingView library and use it as an entry signal, you can!
For example, let’s use the Squeeze Momentum Indicator by Lazybear. After adding it to the chart, we select the first plot which is the histogram. Then we select the condition “crossover” and “0”. It will create a buy when the histogram turns green.
█ Trend Filters
In trading, we try to avoid going against the global trend.
The strategy comes with several built-in trendlines, MTF, or you can use ANY external trendline from the TV library.
The strategy offers other built-in filters such as volume, overbought in range/trending market, or flat market entry filters.
█ Stop Loss
The stop loss can be turned on/off. You can set the value in either %, pips, ATR or Auto mode.
Note: When to use a Stop Loss? Using a stop kind of defeats the purpose of the strategy, but it can be useful if you plan to trade highly volatile and risky coins (remember LUNA ?) That is why the option is there.
█ How to use the strategy
The indicator access is unlocked by subscribing on my website. See the links below this article.
█ Setting up a strategy
You can set up a strategy on your own chart in just one click using the preconfigured charts I will share below, or you can simply add the indicator yourself and play with the settings.
Backtesting
Backtesting is automatically done in the Strategy Tester Tab.
Creating Alerts
Once you have your strategy setup on the chart:
1 - Set the alert message in the indicator inputs (scroll to the bottom, you will find an “alert’ section)
2 - Save your chart and do not touch it anymore unless you want to update your alert (optional but recommended)
3 - Create an alert on Cyatophilum Accumulation Strategy, using the option “alert() function calls only” (this is really important!)
Only one alert is needed to handle all the strategy events! (entry, take profit, stop loss, etc.) Even a free TradingView user can create a strategy!
Automation
The subscription that I offer also comes with Automation bots using the Binance spot trading API .
Important: if you wish to automate your strategies, make sure your TradingView account has access to alert webhook notifications .
That’s it for this tutorial!
Pretty easy right? No, I know it can get complicated at first. 😣
That is why I make preconfigured charts. Once you have access, click on the chart link, then click “copy”, then “save” your “layout” to get your own chart that you can use and edit. Enjoy!
█ Preconfigured charts
BTC/USDT
Chart: www.tradingview.com
ETH/USDT
Chart: www.tradingview.com
BNB/USDT
Chart: www.tradingview.com
MATIC/USDT
Chart: www.tradingview.com
EGLD/USDT
Chart: www.tradingview.com
Trend Trading Strategy for the Heiken Ashi Algo v6Knowing when the RSI and price are in a ranging phase even in the short term can be a difficult process.
You are either #Ranging #bullish or #bearish. At least in the Algo v6 you can get a clear vision of exactly whats happening.
In this video im going to give you a VERY simple strategy on:
1. How to know if the RSI and price are ranging
2. When do i break away from Ranges
3. Am I trending
4. Im trending but whats my confluence to take a long or short
5. Is my range getting bigger or smaller
Enjoy this quick vid and ask questions below.
Thanks everyone.
RSI as a Trend ToolMost people use the RSI as a momentum indicator,
trying to find Overbought/Oversold (OBOS) conditions,
and/or divergences.
However there is also a way to use it as a Trend Tool.
There is a mathematical relationship that connects the RSI and EMA's.
The formula is RSI(x) cross-over 50-line = Close cross-over EMA(2x)
i.e. RSI(14) cross-over 50 line = Close cross-over EMA(28)
This one of the properties of the RSI,
which I discovered when taking a more indept look into momentum indicators,
which ultimately led to the discovery of the MACD-v in 2014/2015
The MACD-v was then publicly disclosed in 2022,
in the form of a a paper called
"MACD-v: Volatility Normalised Momentum",
which was awarded:
It has won 2 International Awards:
1. The “Founders Award” (2022),
for advances in Active Investment Management
from the National Association of Active Investment Managars (NAAIM)
2. The “Charles H. Dow Award” (2022)
for outstanding research in Technical Analysis,
from the Chartered Market Technicians Association (CMTA)
Price overextension: misconceptions and common mistakesPrice overextension remains a widely misunderstood concept in trading, causing both novice and seasoned traders to make errors in their decision-making. This misinterpretation often leads to placing trades in the wrong direction or, equally detrimental, overlooking profitable opportunities.
In essence, price overextension signifies that the market has undergone a rapid and excessive movement in one direction. Such movements are often perceived as unsustainable. Numerous indicators, such as Stochastic, RSI, Bollinger Bands and many other, attempt to identify such "abnormal" price movements so traders could capitalize on them. Despite variations in statistical methods and calculations, their common goal is to detect instances where price went or down too much and is likely to reverse.
In this discussion, I will use Relative-Strength-Index (RSI), a popular indicator, to convey my perspective on price overextension. While some traders argue for customization, the elusive question of "how" often remains unanswered. From my experience, there are no universally perfect settings that consistently yield optimal results.
I’ll draw my examples from the recent SPY bar chart (February 2024).
The first misconception
The first misconception is that if price is overextended it is time to immediately start looking for a trade in the opposite direction. The most important phrase here is “start looking”. Many beginners misinterpret this as an invitation to commence trading, leading to the premature initiation of short positions during perceived market "overextension" and vice versa.
So, the first and foremost important advice is to never try guessing top/bottom based on one indicator or gut feeling. Simple as it seems I remember many times breaking this rule myself because the temptation was too strong. It rarely ended up well.
On the graph, I've highlighted three recent instances where the RSI exceeded 70 (indicating overbought conditions). What stands out is that, following each occurrence, the price surged significantly before consolidation set in, inflicting losses upon short traders.
Even experienced traders, who look for confluence of signals, may fall into this trap. In the first two examples, bearish candlestick patterns failed to prevent subsequent price increases. Most likely, those candles were “created” by weak hands traders, who tried to short market, while it was actually controlled by strong buyers.
These instances could have been avoided by considering the daily graph, revealing a robust bullish context – price was in an uptrend, one-time-framing up on weekly. There were couple of moments when bears gained short term control (Tuesdays 13th and 20th) but they never could take the previous week low; bulls always confirmed their control.
The second advice is to avoid trading against higher level context. While sometimes those trades might work the result is usually mediocre and most of the times you’ll simply lose. If you really wish to trade against context you need to construct a solid dossier of evidence, supporting your trade.
The second misconception
What is the second misconception? It is that when price overextended it is not time to go with the market. In this scenario, traders refrain from initiating long trades after RSI indicates overbought conditions, potentially causing them to miss profitable opportunities. It might not hurt your account but who likes missing good opportunities?
Surprisingly, seizing these trades correctly is not much harder than any other trade. It simply requires prudence and discipline and getting rid-off cognitive biases. For example, in the second example on the graph a trader could win up to 1% if he played off gap-up open after seeing that the new price has found acceptance.
Conclusion
It is possible to build a profitable strategy that relies on “price overextension” concept. However, it demands more than a cursory examination of a single indicator and adherence to textbook candle patterns. Personally, I reached a point where I entirely abandoned the use of RSI and similar tools because, instead of providing clarity, they seemed to cloud my thinking.
Opting for a more effective approach involves keenly observing actual market behavior, which often defies conventional expectations. Study of high-level contexts, understanding key levels, and discerning confluence in price action signals on lower timeframes consistently prove invaluable. This method helps steer clear of common pitfalls and contributes to enhancing overall trading results.
RSI indicatorRSI is a commonly used secondary indicator gauging market momentum.
Providing signals such as Divergence and Buy/Sell signals.
Can be used on any timeframe and also on trending or sideways markets.
Always use in the direction of a major trend and only to provide confirmation to a primary setup.
Negative Correlations in Trading: FULL GUIDEEmbarking on a journey in the world of trading demands a profound understanding of market intricacies. One often-overlooked yet powerful aspect is the domain of negative correlations — the intricate dance where the movement of one asset influences another inversely. This guide aims to be your compass in navigating these complex waters, exploring real-world examples, and providing strategies to harness this knowledge for astute and strategic trading.
Section 1: Unraveling the DXY-BTC Dynamic: Understanding Dollar-Bitcoin Connections
1. The Dance of DXY and BTC:
Delve into the intricate relationship between the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and Bitcoin.
Grasp the nuances of how a strengthening DXY tends to exert a weakening influence on Bitcoin and vice versa.
2. Leveraging the DXY-BTC Correlation:
Explore scenarios where the correlations of DXY and Bitcoin align.
Discuss long-term trading strategies that arise from discerning the interconnectedness of these two prominent assets.
Section 2: Discorrelation RSI: Decoding Signals Amidst Market Chaos
1. Understanding Discorrelation RSI:
Introduce the concept of discorrelation RSI, where RSI signals diverge from price action.
Emphasize the significance of recognizing when RSI provides a more accurate reflection of market sentiment.
2. Trading Wisdom with RSI Signals:
Analyze real-world examples where RSI forms a higher low while the price chart indicates a lower low.
Illuminate actionable strategies for entering long positions based on RSI signals during instances of price divergence.
Section 3: Structural Manipulation: Navigating Opportunities Amidst Deceptive Markets
1. OP Case Study: Structural Manipulation vs. RSI Insights:
Explore the dynamics of the OP token, where structural lows are seemingly updated on the price chart.
Unveil instances where RSI provides a more accurate representation of market conditions, presenting buying opportunities during purported oversold conditions.
2. Seizing Opportunities in Manipulation:
Discuss the art of discerning manipulation from genuine market conditions.
Explore how negative correlations can guide traders to capitalize on opportunities created by market manipulation.
Section 4: Crafting Your Strategy: Navigating the Complexities of Negative Correlations
1. Building a Trading Plan:
Outline the essential components of a comprehensive trading plan that incorporates insights from negative correlations.
Emphasize the need for adaptability and ongoing analysis to refine trading strategies.
2. Risk Management in Negative Correlation Trading:
Discuss advanced risk management strategies tailored to the nuances of negative correlations.
Highlight the importance of position sizing and the judicious use of stop-loss orders.
Conclusion: Orchestrating Success in Market Dynamics
As you conclude this profound exploration of negative correlations in trading, envision the market as a symphony of interconnected instruments. The ability to recognize and leverage negative correlations adds a powerful melody to your trading strategy. Regularly revisit and refine your approach, staying attuned to evolving market conditions, and use negative correlations as a guiding force in your trading journey.
💡 Deciphering Negative Correlations | 🔄 DXY-BTC Symphony | 📊 RSI Discorrelation Strategies | 🎭 Unmasking Structural Manipulation
💬 Engage in the discourse: Share your experiences in trading based on negative correlations, pose thoughtful questions, and connect with a community dedicated to mastering the dynamic nuances of the market. 🌐✨
Mastering Stop-Loss with ATR IndicatorMastering Stop-Loss and Take-Profit with ATR Indicator
What is the ATR Indicator?
The Average True Range (ATR) indicator is a nifty tool that helps traders gauge the market's volatility. Simply, it tells you how much an asset typically moves in a given timeframe.
Placing Stop Loss to Avoid Getting Stopped Out
Step 1: Identify ATR Value
Look at the ATR indicator on your chart; it's usually at the bottom or top of your screen.
Note the ATR value; the higher it is, the more volatile the market.
Step 2: Setting Stop Loss
Set your stop loss beyond the ATR value to avoid getting prematurely stopped due to regular market fluctuations.
For instance, if the ATR is 50, consider placing your stop loss at least 60 points away to give your trade room to breathe.
Understand ATR's Role
ATR not only helps with stopping losses but also guides in setting realistic take-profit levels.
It gives you an idea of how much the asset can move in a given time, assisting you in capturing profits before a potential reversal.
Final Tips for Beginners
Adapt to Market Changes: ATR values change as market conditions shift. Stay adaptable and reassess your stop-loss and take-profit levels accordingly.
Practice on Demo Accounts: Before diving into live trading, practice using the ATR indicator on demo accounts. Gain confidence and refine your strategy without risking real money.
In essence, the ATR indicator is your ally in navigating market volatility. By using it wisely, you can enhance your risk management, safeguarding your trades from unnecessary stop-outs while optimizing your profit potential. Happy trading! 📈✨
RSI Failure Swing exampleThis is an example of what an RSI failure swing looks like. I show on the chart how to enter the strategy, when to exit and ways to find a stop loss. This example is shown using the 9 period RSI. You can play this strat soley but i prefer to play them after a divergence has formed for more confirmation.
Know Sure Thing: Navigating Trends and Volatility EffectivelyIn the realm of technical analysis, the Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator stands out as a robust tool for traders seeking to decipher market trends and manage volatility effectively. This momentum-based oscillator amalgamates multiple moving averages to offer a comprehensive perspective on market momentum across various timeframes.
Introduction to the Know Sure Thing (KST) Indicator
The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator is designed to unveil the market's underlying momentum, encompassing both short and long-term trends. The KST is a dynamic momentum oscillator rooted in the Rate of Change (ROC) principle. It amalgamates four distinct ROC timeframes, smoothing them via Simple Moving Averages. Consequently, the KST generates a fluctuating final value, oscillating above and below a Zero Line. Additionally, it incorporates a signal line, derived from an SMA of the KST line itself.
The moving average methodology of KST empowers traders with a tool capable of identifying both bullish and bearish trends, providing an encompassing view of market momentum shifts. Fundamentally, this indicator gauges momentum using the ROC across four price periods, aiding analysts in detecting divergences, overbought or oversold market conditions, and crossovers.
Understanding Trends with KST
The KST indicator is predominantly used to discern the strength and direction of market trends. When the KST line crosses above its signal line, it signifies a bullish trend shift, indicating a potential upward price movement. Conversely, when the KST line dips below the signal line, it suggests a bearish trend shift, signaling a potential downward price movement.
Similar to the MACD, when a crossover happens and the KST line crosses over the zero the overall signal can be considered to have a greater degree of confirmation.
Moreover, traders rely on crossovers and divergences within the KST indicator for confirming trend reversals or continuations. Bullish and bearish divergences between KST and price action can provide valuable insights into potential market movements, offering opportunities for traders to enter or exit positions.
Managing Volatility Using KST
Beyond trend identification, KST also assists in measuring market volatility. It enables traders to gauge the degree of volatility present in the market at any given time. Sharp spikes or fluctuations in KST readings often coincide with periods of increased market volatility. This information is crucial for traders as it aids in adapting their strategies to accommodate varying market conditions, thereby managing risk more effectively.
Practical Applications of KST
A practical application of KST involves combining its signals with other technical indicators, such as Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) or Relative Strength Index (RSI), to strengthen trade setups. For instance, if KST indicates a bullish crossover and MACD confirms the same, it enhances the confidence of a potential uptrend.
Additionally, traders use KST to identify bullish or bearish signals in conjunction with chart patterns. A bullish KST crossover alongside a bullish chart pattern like a "falling wedge" could reinforce the conviction for a long position.
Tips for Effective Utilization:
Effective utilization of the KST indicator requires a clear understanding of its strengths and limitations. Traders should consider experimenting with different settings and timeframes to find the optimal configuration that aligns with their trading strategies. Always implement some form of backtesting or paper trading to confirm that your strategy is in fact profitable.
The strengths of the KST indicator lies in its ability to offer a more complete view of market momentum. However, like any technical indicator, KST has limitations. During choppy or ranging markets, it might generate false or contradictory signals, leading to potentially misguided trading decisions. Traders should exercise caution and supplement KST readings with additional forms of analysis to mitigate the impact of its limitations.
It's paramount not to rely solely on a single indicator like the KST, but to corroborate KST signals with signals from other indicators or methods of analysis. A fortified approach involving multiple confirmatory signals, fundamental analysis, and risk management strategies strengthens trading decisions and minimizes potential false signals from any single indicator.
Conclusion:
The journey to mastering the Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator involves continuous learning, experimentation with settings, and adapting to evolving market conditions. By staying adaptable, open to new strategies, and consistently refining trading methodologies, traders can harness the full potential of the KST to navigate trends and volatility effectively.
In summary, the KST serves as a valuable addition to traders' toolkits, empowering them to make better trading decisions. Remember, while the KST enhances market analysis, prudent risk management and a comprehensive trading approach remain pivotal for sustained success in the dynamic world of financial markets. Good luck and happy trading!
Example of The Retracement TheoryOn the chart I include the formula and a example of how to get shirt term price targets using the retrace theory.
Basic retracement theory
(B-A)+C
(130.77-128.71)+129.94=$132
the low = A
the retrace high = B
current retracement low = C
Trend Strength Maximum Retracements Upside Targets (downside targets are inverse)
Very Strong
-14.6% to 23.7%
A to B added to C
Easily exceed B
-Strong
38.2%
A to B added to C
Easily exceed B
-Medium Strong
38.2% to 50%
80% of A to B added to C
Should Easily exceed B
-Medium
50%
80% of A to B added to C
Should Easily exceed B
-Medium Weak
61.8% to 50%
80% of A to B added to C
Possibly exceed B
-Weak
61.8%
80% of A to B added to C
Possibly exceed B
-Very Weak
85.4%to 76.3%
80% of A to B added to C
Probably will not exceed B