Volume Indicators: Using Indicators to Analyze VolumeIn our last post we discussed how volume plays a crucial role in financial trading, providing insights into the strength of price movements and overall market sentiment. Volume indicators are essential tools for traders, helping them make informed decisions based on market activity. In this blog post, we will dive deep into the world of volume indicators, discussing their importance and exploring the best indicators available for analyzing volume in day trading. We will also provide practical examples of how these indicators can be used to enhance trading strategies.
The Importance of Volume Indicators
Volume indicators can reveal the level of interest in a financial instrument, showing how many shares, contracts, or lots are being bought or sold within a specific time frame . By analyzing volume, traders can better understand the market's momentum and identify potential breakouts, reversals, and areas of support or resistance. Volume indicators can also help traders detect bullish or bearish divergences, where price movements and volume are not aligned, indicating a possible trend reversal.
Top Volume Indicators
a. Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
VWAP is a popular volume indicator that calculates the average price of a financial instrument, weighted by volume. It is often used as a benchmark by institutional traders to gauge the efficiency of their trades. VWAP can help traders identify trends and potential entry and exit points, particularly for intraday trading.
b. Volume-Weighted Moving Average (VWMA)
Like VWAP, VWMA assigns more importance to periods with higher volume by calculating a moving average that incorporates volume data. VWMA can be used to confirm trends, as a rising VWMA in an uptrend or a declining VWMA in a downtrend shows that volume is supporting the price movement.
c. Money Flow Index (MFI)
MFI is an oscillator that measures the inflow and outflow of money into a financial instrument over a specific time frame. It combines both price and volume data, providing insights into buying and selling pressure. MFI can help traders identify overbought or oversold conditions, as well as potential trend reversals.
d. Accumulation and Distribution Indicator
This indicator measures the cumulative flow of money into and out of a financial instrument, helping traders identify accumulation (buying) and distribution (selling) phases. A rising Accumulation and Distribution indicator suggests strong buying pressure, while a falling indicator signals strong selling pressure.
e. Klinger Oscillator
The Klinger Oscillator is a volume-based indicator designed to predict long-term trends by comparing short-term and long-term volume flows. It can help traders confirm price movements and detect potential trend reversals.
f. On-Balance Volume (OBV)
OBV is a simple but effective volume indicator that calculates the cumulative volume, adding the day's volume when the price closes higher and subtracting it when the price closes lower. OBV can help traders identify trends and potential breakouts by comparing price movements with volume data.
Applying Volume Indicators in Trading
When using volume indicators, it is important to remember that they should be used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools and price action analysis. By combining volume indicators with other technical indicators and chart patterns, traders can develop comprehensive strategies for trading breakouts, reversals, and identifying areas of support and resistance.
Conclusion
Understanding volume and incorporating volume indicators into trading strategies is essential for traders looking to make informed decisions in the financial markets. By using a combination of indicators such as VWAP, VWMA, MFI, Accumulation and Distribution, Klinger Oscillator, and OBV, traders can better analyze market activity and develop effective trading strategies.
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M-oscillator
MACD Crossovers: Trading Signals for Trend ReversalsMoving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a popular technical analysis indicator used to identify potential trend reversals in a security's price action. The MACD consists of two lines, the MACD line and the signal line, which are used to identify bullish and bearish crossovers that can signal a change in trend direction.
A bullish MACD crossover occurs when the MACD line crosses above the signal line, indicating that the security may be entering an uptrend. Traders may look to enter long positions when the MACD confirms the bullish crossover by crossing above its centerline. This may indicate a potential change in trend direction from bearish to bullish.
A bearish MACD crossover occurs when the MACD line crosses below the signal line, indicating that the security may be entering a downtrend. Traders may look to enter short positions when the MACD confirms the bearish crossover by crossing below its centerline. This may indicate a potential change in trend direction from bullish to bearish.
Traders can also use the MACD to identify potential support and resistance levels. When the MACD rises above its centerline, it may indicate a potential bullish trend, and traders may look to identify potential resistance levels to set profit targets. Conversely, when the MACD falls below its centerline, it may indicate a potential bearish trend, and traders may look to identify potential support levels to set profit targets.
In addition to the bullish and bearish crossovers, traders can also use the MACD to identify divergences, which occur when the MACD and the price chart move in opposite directions. Divergences can be bullish or bearish, indicating potential trend reversals. For example, if the price chart is making higher highs, but the MACD is making lower highs, it may indicate a potential bearish divergence and a potential trend reversal.
Traders should also consider the timeframe of their trades when using the MACD. For example, a long-term trader may use a longer period MACD to identify crossovers on a weekly or monthly chart, while a short-term trader may use a shorter period MACD to identify crossovers on an intraday chart.
It's important to note that while the MACD can be a useful tool for identifying potential trend reversals, it is not always accurate. Traders should always use risk management techniques such as stop-loss orders to minimize their losses.
Traders can also use the MACD in conjunction with other technical analysis indicators, such as moving averages and trendlines. For example, traders may use a moving average crossover strategy with the MACD, where a long position is entered when the MACD crosses above the moving average and a short position is entered when the MACD crosses below the moving average.
In addition to identifying potential trading opportunities, the MACD can also be used to confirm existing trades. For example, if a trader enters a long position based on a bullish crossover, they may use the MACD to confirm the strength of the trend by monitoring the MACD's rising trendline.
In summary, MACD crossovers are a popular trading signal used by technical analysts to identify potential trend reversals in a security's price action. Traders can use the bullish and bearish crossovers, divergences, support and resistance levels, and other technical analysis indicators to set entry and exit points for their trades. However, traders should always use risk management techniques to minimize their losses, as the MACD is not always accurate.
The Basics of MACD: An Introduction to the IndicatorThe Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is one of the most popular technical analysis tools in use by traders today. It is a momentum indicator that helps traders to identify changes in the strength, direction, and momentum of a security's price action. The MACD indicator is widely used in technical analysis and can be applied to all asset classes, including stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities. In this blog post, we will cover the basics of the MACD indicator, including how it is calculated and its basic interpretation.
The MACD Indicator Calculation
The MACD indicator is calculated by subtracting the 26-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) from the 12-period EMA. The result is a line that oscillates above and below the zero line. This line is known as the MACD line.
The 9-period EMA is then plotted on top of the MACD line. This line is known as the signal line. The MACD histogram is created by subtracting the signal line from the MACD line. The MACD histogram fluctuates above and below the zero line and provides an indication of the momentum of the price action.
The MACD Interpretation
The MACD indicator provides traders with several signals to assist in their trading decisions. The most common signals are the MACD line crossover signal, the signal line crossover signal, and the divergence signal.
The MACD Line Crossover Signal
When the MACD line crosses above the signal line, it is considered a bullish signal. This is an indication that the momentum of the price action is turning positive, and traders may want to consider buying the security. Conversely, when the MACD line crosses below the signal line, it is considered a bearish signal. This is an indication that the momentum of the price action is turning negative, and traders may want to consider selling the security.
The Signal Line Crossover Signal
Another common signal generated by the MACD indicator is the signal line crossover signal. When the MACD line crosses above the signal line, it is considered a bullish signal. Conversely, when the MACD line crosses below the signal line, it is considered a bearish signal.
The Divergence Signal
The MACD indicator can also provide traders with a divergence signal. This signal occurs when the MACD histogram diverges from the price action. If the price action is making higher highs, but the MACD histogram is making lower highs, it is considered a bearish divergence signal. This is an indication that the momentum of the price action is weakening, and traders may want to consider selling the security. Conversely, if the price action is making lower lows, but the MACD histogram is making higher lows, it is considered a bullish divergence signal. This is an indication that the momentum of the price action is strengthening, and traders may want to consider buying the security.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is a popular technical analysis tool used by traders to identify changes in the strength, direction, and momentum of a security's price action. The MACD indicator is calculated by subtracting the 26-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) from the 12-period EMA, and the result is a line that oscillates above and below the zero line. The MACD indicator provides traders with several signals to assist in their trading decisions, including the MACD line crossover signal, the signal line crossover signal, and the divergence signal. It is important to note that the MACD indicator is just one tool that traders can use to analyze the markets, and it should be used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools, such as trendlines, moving averages, and support and resistance levels. Additionally, traders should use proper risk management techniques, such as stop-loss orders and position sizing, to manage their trades and protect themselves against potential losses.
Traders should also be aware that the MACD indicator is not infallible and can generate false signals, particularly in choppy or sideways markets. Therefore, it is important to confirm MACD signals with other technical indicators and fundamental analysis, such as news events and economic data. Additionally, traders should always be cognizant of the overall trend of the asset they are trading and adjust their strategies accordingly.
In conclusion, the MACD indicator is a versatile and widely used tool in technical analysis. By understanding its calculation and interpretation, traders can use it to identify potential entry and exit points in the markets. However, traders should use the MACD indicator in conjunction with other technical analysis tools and practice proper risk management techniques to improve their trading success.
Trading with RSI Part 4: Positive and Negative ReversalsRSI (Relative Strength Index) is a widely used technical indicator in trading and investing. It measures the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions in an asset. RSI is often used in conjunction with other technical indicators and chart patterns to identify potential reversals in price movements. In this article, we will explore RSI reversals, both positive and negative.
Positive RSI Reversal
A positive RSI reversal occurs when the RSI indicator forms a higher low while the price of the asset forms a lower low. This indicates that the price of the asset is losing momentum to the downside, while the RSI is gaining momentum to the upside. It is a bullish signal that suggests a potential reversal in the asset's price movement.
Traders and investors often look for positive RSI reversals to identify buying opportunities. When the RSI forms a higher low and crosses above its 30 level from oversold territory, it confirms the bullish reversal signal. Traders often wait for a confirmation of the reversal by looking for the price of the asset to break above a resistance level.
For example, let's consider a scenario where the price of a stock has been in a downtrend, forming lower lows and lower highs. However, the RSI indicator forms a higher low, indicating that the momentum is shifting to the upside. As the RSI crosses above its 30 level, it confirms the positive RSI reversal signal. Traders may consider buying the stock as a potential reversal in price movement.
Negative RSI Reversal
A negative RSI reversal occurs when the RSI indicator forms a lower high while the price of the asset forms a higher high. This indicates that the price of the asset is gaining momentum to the upside, while the RSI is losing momentum to the downside. It is a bearish signal that suggests a potential reversal in the asset's price movement.
Traders and investors often look for negative RSI reversals to identify selling opportunities. When the RSI forms a lower high and crosses below its 70 level from overbought territory, it confirms the bearish reversal signal. Traders often wait for a confirmation of the reversal by looking for the price of the asset to break below a support level.
For example, let's consider a scenario where the price of a stock has been in an uptrend, forming higher highs and higher lows. However, the RSI indicator forms a lower high, indicating that the momentum is shifting to the downside. As the RSI crosses below its 70 level, it confirms the negative RSI reversal signal. Traders may consider selling the stock as a potential reversal in price movement.
Conclusion
RSI reversals can be powerful signals for traders and investors. A positive RSI reversal indicates a potential bullish reversal in the asset's price movement, while a negative RSI reversal indicates a potential bearish reversal. However, it is important to note that RSI is not a standalone indicator and should be used in conjunction with other technical indicators and chart patterns. Traders and investors should also consider other factors such as fundamental analysis and market sentiment before making trading decisions based on RSI reversals.
Stochastic RSI in detail and how to use it.The Stoch RSI (Stochastic Relative Strength Index) is a technical analysis indicator used to identify overbought or oversold conditions in financial markets. It is a combination of two popular indicators: the Stochastic Oscillator and the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The Stoch RSI applies the Stochastic Oscillator formula to the RSI values, aiming to provide a more sensitive and faster signal for potential trend reversal.
The Stoch RSI is calculated as follows:
Choose the time period for which you want to calculate the Stoch RSI. The most common period is 14 .
Calculate the RSI: (Detailed post on this in the link below)
Determine the highest and lowest RSI values: Identify the highest and lowest RSI values over the same time period (e.g., 14 days).
Calculate the Stoch RSI: Use the following formula to calculate the Stoch RSI:
Stoch RSI = (Current RSI - Lowest RSI) / (Highest RSI - Lowest RSI)
The resulting Stoch RSI value will range from 0 to 1 (or 0% to 100%). A value above 0.8 (or 80%) typically indicates an overbought condition, suggesting a potential price correction or reversal, while a value below 0.2 (or 20%) indicates an oversold condition, which may represent a buying opportunity.
What does Stoch RSI tell us ?
Stoch RSI is a measure of how fast the RSI is changing. As an analogy. Imagine you are driving your car and have foot on the accelerator which will cause increase in the speed of your cat at every moment, now the rate at which your car's speed increases is acceleration. The bigger the more powerful engine your car has the more acceleration you get and the faster you get to the top speed of your car. So, in this analogy speed of your car at any instant is RSI , acceleration is Stoch RSI and top speed of your car is overbought condition of an asset.
RSI measures who is relatively more aggressive among buyers and sellers at a given instant. Stoch RSI measures how aggressive the buyers or sellers are at a given instant.
So just like in a fight if someone is too aggressive, they are going to spend themselves too quickly and even though they want to fight more they won't be able to until they ease up and relax a bit, this is similar to Stoch RSI of an asset getting to overbought condition and then asset either retraces or takes a pause as buyers are exhausted and need to regain strength by taking profits which turns them into sellers and the asset starts moving in opposite direction.
Why is 80 considered overbought?
The number 80 is chosen based on empirical evidence, suggesting that when the Stoch RSI reaches these extreme values, there is a higher probability of a price reversal or correction. When the Stoch RSI is above 80, it indicates that the asset's price has risen significantly over a short period and could be overextended. In this situation, the asset may be overvalued, and traders may consider selling or taking profits as the price could reverse or correct.
How to use Stoch RSI to enter a trade?
How to enter a Long Trade:
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Step 1. Always use Stoch RSI along with RSI to make a decision:
Step 2. Use it on mid to high term time frame (4h and higher).
Step 3. Make sure both RSI and Stoch RSI are in oversold zone.
Step 4. Make sure the asset is resting on a key support level and holding it.
Step 5. Fearlessly enter the trade.
How to enter a Short Trade:
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Step 1. Always use Stoch RSI along with RSI to make a decision:
Step 2. Use it on mid to high term time frame (4h and higher).
Step 3. Make sure both RSI and Stoch RSI are in overbought zone.
Step 4. Make sure the asset is rejected from a key resistance level and is not able to breach it.
Step 5. Fearlessly enter the trade.
What happens if Support or Resistance is broken in Step 3 above:
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That's where divergences come into play.
What is a divergence?
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Divergence is a technical analysis concept that occurs when the price of an asset and RSI/Stoch RSI indicator move in opposite directions, indicating a potential trend reversal.
There are two types of divergences: bullish divergence and bearish divergence.
Bullish divergence occurs when the price of an asset makes a new low while the RSI/Stoch RSI indicator makes a higher low. Remember from explanation provided in sections above, this suggests that even though the price is going lower there
are more buying activities than selling and the assets are becoming stronger, and a potential trend reversal may be imminent.
Bearish divergence, on the other hand, occurs when the price of an asset makes a new high while the RSI/Stoch RSI indicator makes a lower high.
I have highlighted bullish divergence in chart with purple line. Shown in Red line is bullish Divergence in Stoch RSI, when RSI is not fully oversold, this can happen when a new support is being formed on the chart due to changes in fundamentals of the underlying asset or some news events.
Bullish and Bearish Divergences are even more powerful signals for taking trades, but we must make sure price is holding a support or rejecting from a resistance before taking the trades, otherwise divergences can easily disappear.
Why do traders fail to effectively use RSI?
The primary reason is lack of experience in trading.
Which leads to impatient behavior.
Not knowing how to mark key support/resistance levels.
No risk management skills. (Taking too much risk)
Lack of trust in self when taking trades, (Keep stopping losses too tight which knocks them out of the trades).
I have shown several instances where RSI generated long signals and all of them were successful, the only reason a trader would not be able to use RSI effectively is because of the above reasons.
Trading With RSI Part 3: Trendlines, Channels, and PatternsThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a popular technical analysis indicator used to measure the strength of a security's price action. In addition to its overbought and oversold levels, the RSI can also be used to identify channels, trendlines, and chart patterns within the indicator itself. This can provide traders with additional insights into the security's price action and potential trading opportunities.
Channels can be identified within the RSI by drawing horizontal lines at the overbought and oversold levels. When the RSI moves between these two levels, it is considered to be trading within a channel. Traders can use this information to set buy and sell signals when the RSI breaks out of the channel. For example, if the RSI breaks above the overbought level, it may indicate a potential uptrend, and traders may look to enter long positions.
Trendlines can also be drawn within the RSI to identify potential trend reversals. These trendlines are drawn by connecting the highs or lows of the RSI over a period of time. When the RSI breaks above or below a trendline, it may indicate a potential trend reversal. Traders can use this information to set buy or sell signals based on the direction of the breakout. For example, if the RSI breaks above a downtrend line, it may indicate a potential uptrend, and traders may look to enter long positions.
Chart patterns can also be identified within the RSI, such as triangles, head and shoulders patterns, and double bottoms or tops. These chart patterns can provide traders with additional insights into the security's price action and potential trading opportunities. For example, a double bottom pattern within the RSI may indicate a potential bullish reversal, and traders may look to enter long positions when the RSI breaks above the neckline of the pattern.
In addition to channels, trendlines, and chart patterns, traders can also use the RSI in conjunction with other technical analysis indicators, such as moving averages and Fibonacci retracements. For example, traders may use a moving average crossover strategy with the RSI, where a long position is entered when the RSI crosses above the moving average and a short position is entered when the RSI crosses below the moving average.
Traders should also consider the timeframe of their trades when using channels, trendlines, and chart patterns within the RSI. For example, a long-term trader may use a longer period RSI to identify channels and trendlines on a weekly or monthly chart, while a short-term trader may use a shorter period RSI to identify patterns on an intraday chart.
It's important to note that while channels, trendlines, and chart patterns within the RSI can provide traders with additional insights into the security's price action, they are not always accurate. Traders should always use risk management techniques such as stop-loss orders to minimize their losses.
RSI in detail and how to effectively use itWhat is RSI?
RSI stands for Relative Strength Index; The RSI measures the strength of asset's price action by comparing the magnitude of its recent gains to the magnitude of its recent losses.
The RSI is calculated using the average gain and average loss over a specified period, typically 14. The formula for the RSI is:
RSI = 100 - (100 / (1 + RS))
where RS = Average Gain / Average Loss.
To calculate the average gain, add up the gains over the specified period and divide by the number of periods.
Average Gain = Sum of Gains over N periods / N
To calculate the average loss, add up the losses over the specified period and divide by the number of periods.
Average Loss = Sum of Losses over N periods / N
In simple terms : To determine the average gain/loss for the closing price of the asset for each period in the selected time.
Calculate the difference between the closing price of the current period and the closing price of the previous period. If the current closing price is higher than the previous closing price, the difference is considered a gain. If the current closing price is lower than the previous closing price, the difference is considered a loss. Then calculate the average loss by summing up all the losses over the specified time period and dividing them by the number of periods in the timeframe.
What does RSI tell you?
To understand RSI we must understand the term Relative Strength which refers to the ratio of the average gain to the average loss over a specified period. It is used to compare the strength of the stock or asset price gains to its price losses over a certain timeperiod.
For example, let's say we want to calculate the relative strength of a stock over the past 14 trading days. We first need to calculate the average gain and average loss over that period. Suppose the average gain is USD 2 per share, and the average loss is USD 1 per share.
To calculate the Relative Strength (RS), we divide the average gain by the average loss:
RS = Average Gain / Average Loss
= USD2 /USD 1
= 2
RS value greater than 1 indicates that the stock has experienced more gains than losses over the specified time period. In this case, the RS value of 2 indicates that the stock has had twice as many gains as losses over the past 14 trading days. The higher value of relative strength indicates Buyers have been relatively stronger than sellers over a period of the time and vice-versa of the relative strength is below 1, which indicates sellers have been stronger compared to buyers over a period of time.
When the RS remains above 1 over an extended period of time the RSI plot will keep rising, it can have a maximum value of 100. Any value higher than 70 for RSI is considered overbought and an RSI value below 30 is considered oversold.
What is overbought and oversold?
Overbought is a zone in time and the price of an asset that has risen in price rapidly and is now considered to be trading at a higher value than its true worth or fair value.
When an asset becomes overbought, it means that there are more buyers in the market than sellers, causing the price to increase rapidly. This can occur when investors become overly optimistic about the asset's future prospects or when there is a surge in demand for the asset.
However, an overbought asset is not necessarily a signal to sell. In fact, some traders and investors may view an overbought asset as an opportunity to profit from further price gains. Nevertheless, an overbought asset is often seen as a warning sign that the price may be due for a correction or pullback, as it may have become detached from its underlying fundamentals or economic conditions.
Oversold conditions are simply the opposite of overbought.
Why is RSI above 70 considered overbought?
The reason a reading above 70 is considered overbought in RSI is because it is a widely used and accepted threshold. The value of 70 is not based on any specific mathematical or statistical calculation, but rather it is a commonly used level that has been found to be effective over time. Now because it's a commonly used threshold it becomes self-fulfilling prophecy, where everyone starts acting on it and start selling the asset or at least being to anticipate coming pull back, which leads to slowdown in buying and increased selling, which causes RSI to start going down in oversold territory and the cycle is repeats.
How to effectively use RSI?
For a long trade:
Step 1: Use it on mid to high term timeframe ideally 4h and above.
Step 2: Wait for the RSI to come to the oversold zone.
Step 3: To make sure RSI oversold conditions are to be trusted for entering a trade, the Price must be a key support level and holding it.
Step 4: If all above conditions are met, then fearlessly enter a trade.
For a Short trade:
Step 1: Use it on mid to high term timeframe ideally 4h and above.
Step 2: Wait for the RSI to come to the overbought zone.
Step 3: To make sure RSI overbought conditions are to be trusted for entering a trade, the Price must be a key resistance level and rejecting it.
Step 4: If all above conditions are met, then fearlessly enter a trade.
What happens if Price fails to hold Support or Breaches Resistance in step 3 above?
That's where divergences come into play.
What is a divergence?
Divergence is a technical analysis concept that occurs when the price of an asset and its RSI indicator move in opposite directions, indicating a potential trend reversal.
There are two types of RSI divergences: bullish divergence and bearish divergence.
Bullish divergence occurs when the price of an asset makes a new low while the RSI indicator makes a higher low. Remember from explanation provided in sections above, this suggests that even though the price is going lower there
are more buying activities than selling and the assets are becoming stronger, and a potential trend reversal may be imminent.
Bearish divergence, on the other hand, occurs when the price of an asset makes a new high while the RSI indicator makes a lower high.
I have highlighted bullish divergence in chart with purple line.
Bullish and Bearish Divergences are even more powerful signals for taking trades, but we must make sure price is holding a support or rejecting from a resistance before taking the trades, otherwise divergences can easily disappear.
Why do traders fail to effectively use RSI?
The primary reason is lack of experience in trading.
Which leads to impatient behavior.
No risk management skills. (Taking too much risk)
Lack of trust in self when taking trades, (Keep stopping losses too tight which knocks them out of the trades).
I have show several instances where RSI generated long signals and all of them were successful , the only reason a trader would not be able to use RSI effectively is because of above reasons.
Trading With RSI Part 2: Failure SwingsRelative Strength Index (RSI) failure swings, also known as RSI divergences, are a popular trading signal used by technical analysts to identify potential trend reversals. A failure swing occurs when the RSI fails to confirm a new high or new low in the price, indicating that the trend may be weakening.
There are two types of failure swings: bullish and bearish. A bullish failure swing occurs when the RSI forms a lower low, while the price forms a higher low. This is a sign that the price may be about to reverse higher. Conversely, a bearish failure swing occurs when the RSI forms a higher high, while the price forms a lower high. This is a sign that the price may be about to reverse lower.
To confirm a failure swing, traders can use a trendline to connect the highs or lows on the RSI indicator. If the trendline is broken, it can indicate that the failure swing has been confirmed and that a trend reversal may be underway.
Traders can use failure swings to set entry and exit points for their trades. For example, if a bullish failure swing is confirmed, a trader may enter a long position with a stop-loss order below the recent low. Conversely, if a bearish failure swing is confirmed, a trader may enter a short position with a stop-loss order above the recent high.
It's important to note that while failure swings can be a useful trading signal, they are not always accurate. Traders should always use risk management techniques such as stop-loss orders to minimize their losses.
Traders can also use the RSI to identify failure swings in different timeframes. For example, a trader may use a longer-term RSI to identify failure swings on a daily chart, while using a shorter-term RSI to identify failure swings on an intraday chart.
In addition to failure swings, traders can also use the RSI to identify other trading signals such as divergences and trendline breaks. Divergences occur when the RSI and the price chart move in opposite directions, indicating a potential trend reversal. Trendline breaks occur when the RSI breaks a trendline, indicating a potential change in trend direction.
In summary, RSI failure swings are a popular trading signal used by technical analysts to identify potential trend reversals. Traders can use bullish and bearish failure swings to set entry and exit points for their trades, and can confirm the signals using trendlines. However, traders should always use risk management techniques to minimize their losses, as failure swings are not always accurate.
Trading With RSI Part 1: Tops & Bottoms, Support & ResistanceRelative Strength Index (RSI) is a popular technical indicator used by traders to identify overbought and oversold market conditions. It oscillates between 0 and 100, with readings above 70 indicating an overbought market and readings below 30 indicating an oversold market. Trading using the tops and bottoms of RSI is a popular strategy that involves identifying key levels of resistance and support. In technical analysis, support and resistance are key concepts used to identify potential buying and selling opportunities. Support levels are areas where the price tends to find support as it falls, while resistance levels are areas where the price tends to find resistance as it rises. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) can be used to identify support and resistance levels by analyzing the overbought and oversold readings on the indicator.
The first step in using RSI to trade is to identify the trend. A trader can do this by analyzing the price chart and looking for higher highs and higher lows in an uptrend or lower highs and lower lows in a downtrend. Once the trend has been identified, the trader can look for key levels of resistance and support on the RSI indicator.
When the RSI is in overbought territory (above 70), it indicates that the market may be due for a correction. A trader can look for a bearish divergence between the RSI and the price chart to confirm this. This occurs when the RSI forms a lower high while the price chart forms a higher high. This is a signal that the upward momentum is weakening, and a reversal may be imminent.
Conversely, when the RSI is in oversold territory (below 30), it indicates that the market may be due for a rebound. A trader can look for a bullish divergence between the RSI and the price chart to confirm this. This occurs when the RSI forms a higher low while the price chart forms a lower low. This is a signal that the downward momentum is weakening, and a reversal may be imminent.
Traders can use the tops and bottoms of RSI to set entry and exit points for their trades. For example, a trader may enter a short position when the RSI reaches 70 and exit when it falls to 30. Conversely, a trader may enter a long position when the RSI reaches 30 and exit when it rises to 70. It's important to remember that no strategy is foolproof, and traders should always use risk management techniques such as stop-loss orders to minimize their losses.
In addition to using the overbought and oversold readings and divergences, traders can also use the RSI to identify key levels of support and resistance by analyzing the chart patterns. For example, if the RSI forms a double top or double bottom, it may indicate a potential reversal. If the RSI forms a trendline, it can be used to identify potential support and resistance levels.
In summary, trading using the tops and bottoms of RSI is a popular strategy for identifying key levels of resistance and support in the market. Traders can use these levels to set entry and exit points for their trades, and can confirm their signals by looking for divergences between the RSI and the price chart. As with any strategy, traders should always use risk management techniques to minimize their losses.
RSI vs. Stochastic OscillatorRecently, I was asked to write an article about the differences between two popular technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Stochastic Oscillator. As someone who has utilized both indicators in my trading journey, I was excited to share my insights and help others better understand these powerful tools. In this article, we will delve into the purposes, advantages, and disadvantages of the RSI and Stochastic Oscillator, as well as explore their effectiveness on different instruments and how they can be combined with other indicators for optimal trading results. Let's dive in!
1. Calculation method:
a. RSI: The RSI is calculated using the average gain and average loss over a specified period (usually 14). The formula is RSI = 100 - (100 / (1 + (Average Gain / Average Loss))). The RSI ranges from 0 to 100, with 30 and 70 as common thresholds for oversold and overbought levels, respectively.
b. Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic Oscillator compares the current closing price to the price range over a specified period (usually 14). It consists of two lines, %K and %D, with %K representing the raw Stochastic value and %D being a moving average of %K. The formula for %K is: %K = (Current Close - Lowest Low) / (Highest High - Lowest Low) x 100. The Stochastic Oscillator also ranges from 0 to 100, with 20 and 80 as common thresholds for oversold and overbought levels, respectively.
2. Sensitivity:
a. RSI: The RSI is generally less sensitive to price fluctuations, which can result in fewer false signals. However, it may not react as quickly to price changes as the Stochastic Oscillator.
b. Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic Oscillator is more sensitive to price fluctuations, which can provide earlier signals but also result in more false signals. Traders often use additional filtering techniques to reduce false signals, such as waiting for %D line crossovers or using other indicators for confirmation.
3. Performance in different market conditions:
a. RSI: The RSI works well in trending markets, as it can help identify potential trend reversals. However, it may produce false signals in range-bound markets or during strong trends.
b. Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic Oscillator performs well in both trending and range-bound markets, as it considers the price range in its calculation. This makes it more adaptable to different market conditions, although it may require additional confirmation from other indicators due to its sensitivity.
4. Application in trading strategies:
a. RSI: Traders often use the RSI as a standalone indicator or in combination with other indicators such as moving averages, Bollinger Bands, or MACD. The RSI can also be used to spot divergence, where the price makes new highs or lows, but the RSI fails to confirm them, signaling a potential trend reversal.
b. Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic Oscillator is often used with other indicators such as moving averages, MACD, or ADX to provide confirmation of trade signals. In addition, it can be used to spot divergence, similar to the RSI, as well as identify potential trend reversals through crossovers of the %K and %D lines.
In summary, while both the RSI and Stochastic Oscillator are used to identify overbought and oversold conditions, they differ in terms of calculation, sensitivity, performance in different market conditions, and application in trading strategies. Understanding these differences can help traders choose the most suitable indicator for their specific trading style and market conditions.
Understanding the Parabolic Stop and Reverse (SAR) IndicatorThe Parabolic Stop and Reverse (PSAR) indicator is a technical analysis tool that helps traders identify potential reversals in price movements. It is represented by a series of dots that appear above or below the price chart. When the dots are below the price, it indicates a bullish trend potential, and when the dots are above the price, it signals a bearish trend potential. The indicator is calculated based on the price and time, and it adjusts its position as the price moves. When the price crosses the SAR, it signals a potential reversal. The indicator should be used in combination with other technical indicators to confirm trading signals.
One strategy for entries using the PSAR indicator is using it with another technical indicator, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI). When using this strategy, traders can look for oversold conditions on the RSI and then wait for a buy signal from the PSAR indicator. This can help identify potential entry points for long positions. On the other hand, traders can look for overbought conditions on the RSI and then wait for a sell signal from the PSAR to identify potential entry points for short positions. However, it's important to keep in mind that no trading strategy is foolproof, and risk management should always be a top priority.
The PSAR indicator can also be used as a stop loss by traders. One way is to use it as a trailing stop loss, whereby the stop loss price is adjusted upwards as the price of the asset increases. Price crossing over the PSAR against the trade direction would signal the trader to close their position. This helps to lock in profits or limit potential losses. This can help to minimize losses and protect capital. Overall, the SAR indicator can be a useful tool for traders when used in combination with other technical indicators and risk management strategies.
Cutting Through Market Noise With Renko ChartsRenko charts are a non-traditional type of chart used in technical analysis to represent price movements. Unlike other charts, Renko charts are based solely on price movements and do not consider time. A Renko chart consists of bricks or blocks that represent a fixed price movement. A new brick is only added to the chart when the price movement reaches the fixed value. For example, if the brick value is 1, a new brick will be added to the chart if the
price move by HKEX:1 or more. If the price moves less than HKEX:1 , no brick will be added. This allows traders to focus on the price trend and filter out the noise
created by small price movements.
Renko charts are primarily used in technical analysis to help traders identify trends and filter out market noise. By plotting price movements based solely on price action and not time, Renko charts can help traders identify key support and resistance levels, and potential entry and exit points. Traders can adjust the size of the bricks or blocks on the chart to reflect the desired price movement, allowing them to customize the chart to suit their trading style.
Additionally, Renko charts can be used in conjunction with other technical indicators to confirm or refute trading signals.
When combined with other technical indicators like RSI and moving averages, traders can gain a better perspective on the underlying trend and potential entry and exit points.
For example, Renko charts can be effectively used with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and two moving averages to improve analysis, identify profitable trades, and manage risk. RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements and can be used to identify overbought or oversold conditions in the market. The moving averages can help identify the trend direction and potential support and resistance levels.
When using Renko charts with RSI and moving averages, traders can look for buy or sell signals at the intersection of the moving averages and when the RSI reaches overbought or oversold levels.
For example, a buy signal can be generated when the price crosses above the moving averages and the RSI is oversold. Conversely, a sell signal can be generated when the price crosses below the moving averages and the RSI is overbought. This combination of indicators can help traders make more informed trading decisions and improve their overall profitability.
By using Renko charts with RSI and moving averages, traders can improve their analysis, identify profitable trades, and manage risk more effectively. Overall, Renko charts are a popular tool among technical traders for their ability to simplify price action and highlight important trend information.
How to Trade With Relative Strength Index (RSI) Indicator
Hey traders,
Relative strength index is a classic technical indicator.
It is frequently applied to spot a market reversal.
RSI divergence is considered to be a quite reliable signal of a coming trend violation and change.
Though newbie traders think that the application of the divergence is quite complicated, in practice, you can easily identify it with the following tips:
💠First of all, let's start with the settings.
For the input, we will take 7/close.
For the levels, we will take 80/20.
Then about the preconditions:
1️⃣ Firstly, the market must trade in a trend ( bullish or bearish )
with a sequence of lower lows / lower highs ( bearish trend ) or higher highs / higher lows ( bullish trend ).
2️⃣ Secondly, RSI must reach the overbought/oversold condition (80/20 levels) with one of the higher highs/higher lows.
3️⃣ Thirdly, with a consequent market higher high / lower low, RSI must show the lower high / higher low instead.
➡️ Once all these conditions are met, you spotted RSI Divergence.
A strong counter-trend movement will be expected.
Also, I should say something about a time frame selection.
Personally, I prefer to apply it on a daily time frame, however, I know that scalpers apply divergence on intraday time frames as well.
❗️Remember, that it is preferable to trade the divergence in a combination with some price action pattern or some other reversal signal.
Let me know, traders, what do you want to learn in the next educational post?
What if RSI and EMA produce similar results?█ What if RSI and EMA produce similar results?
In the world of trading , technical indicators play a crucial role in making informed decisions. One such indicator is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and another is the Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Both of these indicators have been widely used by traders to analyze market trends and make predictions about future price movements. However, it has long been a topic of debate among traders as to which of these two indicators is better.
█ What if RSI and EMA produce similar results?
We wanted to determine the relationship* between the RSI and the EMA, specifically examining the hypothesis that when the RSI crosses above the value of 50, it returns similar results as when the price crosses above a certain length of an EMA. Similarly, when the RSI crosses below the value of 50, it returns similar results as when the price crosses below a certain length of an EMA. Our goal was to determine whether the RSI and EMA were related* in any way.
█ Our Simulations
We designed a series of simulations to compare the accuracy of the RSI and EMA in predicting market trends. The simulations were designed to test the assumption that the RSI and EMA were equal* in terms of accuracy in predicting price movements.
█ Our definition of "predict price movements."
If RSI crosses above the value of 50, there is a higher likelihood of a bullish move. If RSI crosses below the value of 50, there is a higher likelihood of a bearish move.
█ Our assumption for this study
When the RSI crosses above the value 50, it is equal* to when the price crosses above a certain EMA length, and when the RSI crosses below the value 50, it is equal* to when the price crosses below a certain EMA length. This assumption had never been tested until our team decided to put it to the test.
█ Results
To our surprise, we found a strong relationship* between the RSI and the EMA. We discovered that when the RSI crosses above the value of 50, it returns similar* results as when the price crosses above a certain length of an EMA. Conversely, when the RSI crosses below the value of 50, it returns similar* results as when the price crosses below a certain length of an EMA.
The assumption was accurate and that the correlation* between the RSI and EMA was 1, indicating that the results of both indicators were highly consistent. This means that there is an EMA length that performs exactly* the same as the RSI in terms of predicting market trends.
Validity Checks
We stored crossover values for both RSI and EMA in 2 different arrays, and by running the following tests, we could conclude our findings.
Correlation Check
The correlation between RSI and EMA provides insights into the relationship between the two arrays.
Array Size Checks
The "diff" tells us how different the sizes of the two arrays are. If the size of both arrays is the same, "diff" would be 0, indicating that the two arrays have the same number of elements.
Percentage Check
The percentage difference between RSI and EMA is a measure of the similarity between the two arrays. A percentage difference of 0 indicates that the two arrays are the same size, while a higher percentage difference indicates that the two arrays are different in size.
Ratio Check
The ratio represents the relationship between the two arrays, in terms of the sum of their elements. If the ratio is equal to 1, it means that the sum of the elements in the two arrays is the same. The higher the ratio, the more the elements in RSIa are relative to the elements in EMA. The lower the ratio, the less the elements in RSI are relative to the elements in EMA.
█ What is the exact relationship between the two indicators?
After further testing and analysis, we discovered that the length of the EMA that returns results similar* to the RSI is given by the formula: "2* RSI Period - 1". This formula provides traders with a clear, scientific method for determining the length of an EMA that will return results similar* to the RSI.
█ What does it mean for Traders?
The study has provided valuable insights into the accuracy of RSI and EMA. It has shown that both indicators are approximately equal in terms of accuracy and that traders can use either one without having to sacrifice accuracy. This means that traders can choose RSI or EMA, depending on their personal preferences and trading style.
█ Conclusion
Our study has shown that when the RSI crosses above the value of 50, it returns similar* results as when the price crosses above a certain length of an EMA. Similarly, when the RSI crosses below the value of 50, it returns similar* results as when the price crosses below a certain length of an EMA. Furthermore, we have discovered the exact* relationship between the RSI and EMA, given by the formula "2 * RSI Period - 1". These findings provide valuable insights for traders and demonstrate the potential for data-driven approaches in trading.
We showed that the RSI and EMA were highly correlated*, indicating that the results of both indicators were highly consistent*. This knowledge can save traders time and effort, as they can use one indicator to validate the results of the other.
-----------------
Disclaimer
*Our results are approximate. We encourage you to test the assumption yourself. We do not guarantee that you will get the same results. This is an educational study for entertainment purposes only. The findings/results may or may not be true.
The information contained in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
How to be a Mean Reversion ScalperIn this video I go over how I trade with my custom mean-reversion histogram and overlay indicator, explaining the logic behind my entires and profit-taking levels. This example is taken from $SPY on the 1-minute chart, and I examine all four of the alerts that the indicator gave today. Comment below with any questions!
The Momentum of MomentumUtilizing oscillators to confirm trend continuations and reversals is a momentum traders’ bread and butter. You most likely have the RSI or MACD saved to your favorites, but have you ever considered analyzing the momentum of an oscillator itself? You would be surprised at what insights the momentum of an oscillator can show you. In this article, we will look at how the momentum of an oscillator can help parse out false signals and give you an edge in your decision-making.
Below is the BTC/USDT 15-minute chart, the True Momentum Oscillator (TMO), and a 50-day EMA. We have highlighted what appears to be a short-term double top, with a weakening oscillator momentum that failed to reach or exceed the previous level. The price consistently bounced around the 50-period EMA and had cleanly broken through with a retrace imminent. Whether you aim to trade the break of the EMA or the retrace and rejection, this appears to be set up for a potential short trade.
Now we take the momentum of the TMO and its signal line and plot those lines (purple and white). Another layer to this story suddenly unfolds. We can now see from the new momentum lines that this move to the downside weakened almost as soon as it began. There is now a clear divergence between the oscillator and its momentum lines. What seemed to be a solid short setup now has upside potential. We must now question our next move.
A few bars later, the price broke above the 50-EMA and quickly touched it one last time and is followed by a robust move to the upside. In the current market, it is easy to lean short. Eager traders might have taken the short only to be burned by the strong move against the desired trade. Adding the layer of the momentum of our oscillator helped us read between the noise. We had a better idea of where the next chapter could take us, or at the very least, we could avoid a risky trade.
This is just one example of how the momentum of oscillators can be another valuable tool in our technical analysis tool belt. This momentum offers a unique visual aid for making quick decisions when trading.
Heiken Ashi Algo and the Mass Effect Moving Average: Almost HereWell ladies and gentlemen I think I have created a monster and I'm really happy to call it the heiken Ashi algo and the Mass Effect moving average combination.
Don't worry I have not been leaving you hanging. It's just been very busy and I want to make sure that this thing works beautifully for you.
So what is the heiken Ashi algo oscillator?
it is an oscillator much like the original heikin-ashi RSI with a ton more features.
As you know a little while ago I came out with the CoffeeShop Crypto HARSI, Update to the original HARSI.
And as development on that oscillator continued I had to change the name to the algo because now the oscillator actually speaks to you while trading is taking place.
But as you know you should never use a single indicator by itself to enter and exit trades and understand what's happening on your chart. you should always use something as a secondary Confluence or even a tertiary confluence. Because the more confluences you have the better right?
So with that I continued development on the Mass Effect moving average and you can use them beautifully in combination.
In this video I don't want to get into the technical Aspect of all the details on how the oscillator and the moving average work but I do want to show you the parts that have been developed and what they mean.
feel free to leave your suggestions below and I will make adjustments if needed.
I'm probably going to need one more week before fully releasing both of these together and until then I'd love to communicate with you on anything to make it more fluid.
With that let's take a look at my chart and see the breakdown.
The Heiken Ashi Algo
Double Stochastic - Uses a mean regression calculation for pullback notifications but it also adds support to knowing when a trend is in full swing.
This happens when you see both stochastic ribbons touch each other while they are the same color
Green touching green is a move to the upside. It matters most When it's above or below the 50 level.
the other thing you can see here is when they touch and when they touch again as the same color is a clear sign of a Divergence.
IBXL - Inside Bar Calculation. This will be moved to the Mass Effect MA as well
Resistance / Support / are dynamic levels which change over time
Bull Key level - Are Significant price or Price action levels which almost never change over longer periods of time. when I get a key level alert I Market on my chart with a thick line and I lock it in place. These are the major areas of supply and demand Zone on your chart and you want to watch them closely when price gets near these levels
Pull Back - Helps you draw out targets to your trend lines.
Now let's talk real quick about the mass effect moving average and what it will include.
this uses a mean regression strategy so that you can swing trade- And get your confluences of when prices going to move up or down so doesn't matter if you are in an uptrend or a downtrend .
Stop lost Trend color - Is this really a stop loss line which will follow your price action and depending on its color will tell you if you should be using a stop loss of a guy or a stop loss of a sell. Obviously if it's red you should be selling and if it's green you should be buying. do not use it incorrectly. Just because it changes to Green doesn't mean you by and just because it changes to Red doesn't mean you cell. It only means you are in an area where you should be buying or selling.
The EMA's - it includes four different exponential moving averages which you can set appropriately to your style.
The VWAP - Included in this is a VWAP Moving average. Even though the VWAP is used as a moving average against the RSI in the oscillator below, I included the VWAP in the Mass Effect moving average because once you switch to a daily chart The VWAP in the oscillator disappears but you can still have it on your chart in the Mass Effect moving average. So switching to a daily chart you will still be able to see your VWAP.
The V-CROSS - This indication shows up so that you can see when the V WAP is crossing over your price level. This helps you know from point to point if you are above or below a support or resistance level and where is your price in relation to your VWAP. This will also help you notice when price is overbought or oversold.
Fractals - Show you pivot points in market structure. I use them to find exit points for trades when there is no immediate swing low or high to be seen. Usually i look further left and use one of these points to exit. But they have even more application which I'll get into in another video.
The Trend Ribbon - Is a bullish and or bearish colored ribbon to show you the trend that works in Confluence with your stop loss line which also changes from red to Green. when they are both the same color you are in a trend in that direction of up or down. The good thing about the trend ribbon is it's always seeking the same level as the VWAP and when it finally catches up to it that's when the trend usually goes flat and then reverses.
Relative Strength IndexThe Relative Strength Index is one of the most widely used tools in traders handset. The RSI is an oscillating indicator which shows when an asset might be overbought or oversold by comparing the magnitude of the assets recent gains to its recent losses. A common misconception is that the RSI draws a comparison between one security and another, but what it actually does is to measure the assets strength relative to its own price history, not that of the market.
The Relative Strength Index is useful for generating signals to time entry and exit points by determining when a trend might be coming to an end or a new trend may be forming. It weighs the prices upward versus downward momentum over a certain period of time, most often 14 periods, thus showing if the asset has moved unsustainably high or low.
The RSI is visualized with a single line and is bound in a range between 1 and 100, with the level of 50 being considered as a key point distinguishing an uptrend from a downtrend. You can see how the RSI is plotted on a chart on the following screenshot.
J. Welles Wilder, the inventor of the Relative Strength Index, has determined also two other fundamental points of interest. He considered that an RSI above 70 indicates that the asset is overbought, while an RSI below 30 suggests an oversold situation. These levels however are not strictly set and can be manually switched, according to each traders unique trading system. Trading platforms allow you to choose any other value as overbought/oversold boundary apart from the conventional levels.
How is RSI calculated?
The formula is as follows:
RSI = 100 –
Where the RS (Relative Strength) is the division between the upward movement and the downward movement, which means that:
RS = UPS / DOWNS
UPS = (Sum of gains over N periods) / N
DOWNS = (Sum of losses over N periods) / N
As for the period used for tracking back data, Wilders original calculations included a 14-day period, which continues to be used most often even today. It however can also be a subject to change, according to each traders unique preferences.
After the estimation of the first period (in our case the default 14 days), further calculations must be made in order to determine the RSI after a new closing price has occurred. This includes one of two possible averaging methods – Wilders initial and still most commonly used exponential averaging method, or a simple averaging method. We will stick to the most popular approach and use exponential smoothing. The UPS and DOWNS for a 14-day period will then look like this:
UPSday n = / 14
DOWNSday n = / 14
What does the RSI tell us?
here are several signals that the Relative Strength Indexs movement generates. As we said earlier, this indicator is used to determine what kind of trend we have and when it might come to an end. If the RSI moves above 50, it indicates that more market players are buying the asset than selling, thus pushing the price up. When movement crosses below 50, it suggests the opposite – more traders are selling rather than buying and the price decreases. You can see an example of an uptrend below where the RSI remains above 50 for almost the duration of the move.
However, do keep in mind to use the RSI as a trend-confirmation tool, rather than just determining the trend direction all by itself. If your analysis is showing that a new trend is forming, you should check the RSI to receive additional confidence in the current market movement – if RSI is rising above 50, then you have a confirmation at hand. Logically, a downtrend has the opposite properties.
Overbought and oversold levels
Although trend confirmation is an important feature, the most closely watched moment is when the RSI reaches the overbought and oversold levels. They show whether a price movement has been overdone or it is sustainable, thus, indicating if a price reversal is likely or if the market should at least turn sideways and see some correction.
The overbought condition suggests a high probability that there are insufficient buyers on the market to push the asset further up, thus leading to a stall in price movement. The reverse, oversold, level indicates that there are not enough sellers left on the market to further push prices lower.
This means that when the RSI hits the overbought area (in our case 70 and above), it is very likely that price movement will decelerate and, maybe, reverse downward. Such a situation is pictured on the screenshot below. You can see two rebounds from the overbought level with the first move being extraordinary strong and bound to end with a price reversal, or a correction at least.
.
Having noted that prices tend to rebound from overbought/oversold levels, we can therefore reach the conclusion that they tend to act as support/resistance zones. This means that we can use those levels to generate entry and exit points for our trading session. As soon as the price hits one of the two extremes, we can use the Relative Strength Index to confirm a probable price reversal and enter an opposite position, hoping that prices will reverse in our favor. We can then set the opposite extreme level as a profit target.
Ultimate guide to trading divergenciesHey guys!
In this post, we are going to learn how to trade divergencies, how to find them on the chart, and how to use them in our automated trading strategy.
Introduction
Divergence occurs when the direction of an asset’s price and the direction of a technical indicator move in opposite directions. Finding divergence between price and momentum indicators, such as the RSI and MACD, is a useful tool for identifying potential changes in the direction of an asset’s price and is therefore a cornerstone of many trading strategies.
Types of divergencies
There are 4 major types of divergencies:
Bullish Divergence
Hidden Bullish Divergence
Bearish Divergence
Hidden Bearish Divergence
Bullish Divergence
Price is printing lower low while the technical indicator shows higher lows. This signalizes a weakening momentum of a downtrend and a reversal to the upside can be expected to follow.
Hidden Bullish Divergence
Price is making higher lows while the oscillator makes lower lows. A hidden bullish divergence can signalize that uptrend will continue and can be found at the tail end of a price throwback (retracement down).
Bearish Divergence
Price is creating higher highs while the technical indicator shows lower highs. This signalizes that momentum to the upside is weakening and a reversal to the downside can be expected to follow.
Hidden Bearish Divergence
Price is making lower highs while the oscillator makes higher highs. A hidden bearish divergence can signalize that downtrend will continue and can be found at the tail end of a price pullback (retracement up).
Regular divergencies provide a reversal signal
Regular divergences can be powerful signals that a trend reversal is likely to occur. They indicate that the trend is strong but its momentum has weakened, providing an early warning of a potential change in direction. Regular divergences can be powerful entry triggers.
Hidden divergencies signal trend continuation
On the other hand, hidden divergences are continuation signals that often occur in the middle of a trend. They indicate that the current trend is likely to continue after a pullback, and can be powerful entry triggers when confluence is present. Hidden divergences are typically used by traders to join the existing trend after a pullback.
Divergence validity
The typical use of divergence is with a momentum indicator - such as RSI , Awesome oscillator , or MACD . These indicators focus on current momentum, and therefore trying to map out divergence from 100+ candles ago does not have any predictive value. However, changing the indicator's period influences the look-back range for a valid divergence.
Always use discretion when determining the validity of the divergence.
Confluences
It is important to approach divergencies with a disciplined and strategic mindset. Using them in conjunction with other forms of technical and fundamental analysis - such as Support and Resistance lines, Fib retracements, or Smart Money Concepts only increases conviction of the divergence validity.
Hope this helps!
ECONOMIC CYCLE & INTEREST RATESHello traders and future traders! The state of an economy can be either growing or shrinking. When an economy is growing, it typically leads to improved conditions for individuals and businesses. Conversely, when an economy is shrinking or experiencing a recession, it can have negative consequences. The central bank works to maintain a stable level of inflation and support moderate economic growth through the management of interest rates.
What is an economic cycle?
An economic cycle refers to the fluctuations or ups and downs in economic activity over a period of time. These cycles are typically characterized by periods of economic growth and expansion, followed by periods of contraction or recession. Economic cycles are often measured by changes in gross domestic product (GDP) and other economic indicators, such as employment, consumer spending, and business investment.
Economic cycles can be caused by a variety of factors, including changes in monetary and fiscal policy, shifts in consumer and business confidence, and changes in global economic conditions. Economic cycles can also be influenced by external events, such as natural disasters or political instability.
Understanding economic cycles is important for businesses, governments, and individuals, as it helps them anticipate and prepare for changes in the economy and make informed decisions about investment, hiring, and other economic activities.
How is an economic cycle related to interest rates?
Interest rates can be an important factor in the economic cycle . During a period of economic expansion, demand for credit typically increases, as businesses and consumers borrow money to make investments and purchases. As a result, interest rates may rise to control the demand for credit and prevent the economy from overheating. Higher interest rates can also encourage saving, which can help to balance out the increased spending that often occurs during an economic expansion.
On the other hand, during a period of economic contraction or recession, demand for credit tends to decline, as businesses and consumers become more cautious about borrowing and spending. In response, central banks may lower interest rates to stimulate demand for credit and encourage economic activity. Lower interest rates can also make borrowing cheaper and more attractive, which can help to boost spending and support economic growth.
Overall, the relationship between interest rates and the economic cycle can be complex and dynamic, and the direction and magnitude of changes in interest rates can depend on a variety of factors, including economic conditions, inflation expectations, and the goals and objectives of central banks and other policy makers.
I hope you leant something new today!
ADX: How to use this under-the-radar tool.Hey everyone! 👋👋
In this video, we're taking a look at the ADX Indicator. We break down how it works, how to interpret its output, common uses for it, and ways that it can help you find and screen for opportunities you like.
Feel free to drop some questions below in the comments!
Remember - nothing in this video constitutes advice, our only goal is to educate you about the markets and how to use our platform more broadly.
Cheers!
-Team TradingView ❤️❤️
Check out more information about the ADX in our help center here .
SK Chart OverlaySK Chart Overlay by Stephen Kalayjian and TradeEZ is advertised as a "cutting edge proprietary chart overlay, with built-in predictive analytics for trading" . The same set of indicators and similar chart setups were used by Stephen Kalayjian in his previous failed projects KnowVera and Ticker Tocker . A closer look into these projects reveals that these indicators are just rebranded well known indicators with a little bit of lipstick.
Trade EZ MA - Welles MA (10) / EMA (19)
Trade EZ 1 - MACD(12, 26, 9)
Trade EZ 2 - DMI (14, 14)
Trade EZ 3 - Stochastic (5, 3, 3)
Trade EZ 4 - ATR Supertrend (52, 2.5) + Welles MA (5) / EMA (9) - previously known as KnowVera Trend Channel and later Ticker Tocker Trend Channel
Chart setup is available at www.tradingview.com
Everything I've learned about the RSI BINANCE:BTCUSDT
In this post, I'll make an attempt to share everything I've learned over the Relative Strength Index (RSI) Over the past 24 months.
Nothing described in this post is financial advice, it's just me, sharing thoughts and ideas with you.
nb: this post is more suited for traders and investors that are already educated about the RSI Indicators.
A brief introduction about the indicator itself :
The relative strength index (RSI) is a momentum indicator used in technical analysis. RSI measures the speed and magnitude of a security's recent price changes to evaluate whether it's better to buy, sell, or wait.
The RSI is displayed as an oscillator (a line graph) on a scale of zero to 100.
The RSI is probably the most used oscillator in finance nowadays, by both retail traders and institutions, hence meaning that when used well , it can be used as a great edge to profitability.
RSI popular uses :
- An asset is usually considered overbought when the RSI is above 70 and oversold when it is below 30.
- The RSI can give us insights on a potential trend's loss of momentum or validity when the price pivots levels are diverging with the RSI indicator (hidden and regular divergences)
- The most popular RSI length is 14 periods.
My findings
1. Overbought and oversold: myth or reality?
RSI's 30 and 70 levels never proved themselves to be a strong enough edge for me to be used as a standalone signal for trade entries.
As an example, just look at the irregularity of the results you would get when using just these zones :
My take on it is that as a price oscillator when it crosses into extremes, it simply means price momentum is at extreme levels. To me it's basically like a mountain cyclist in the middle of a race: he might very well go faster and higher, however, the quicker and higher he goes the more unlikely he is to keep up with that speed. Eventually, he might either decrease its speed or even go backward.
What does this tell us ?
The RSI 30 and 70 levels seem to be better used when used as timing indicators. For example, the 70 and 30 levels could be used as a filter for a trader to eliminate market noise when using a trend reversal strategy (mean-reversion). For trend traders, the levels could be used to timing signals where they'll start looking for price to do a pullback (consolidation) to get in the trend.
My experience using the 30 and 70 levels as exit signals however has been better (when it comes to using it as the only signal for a trade exit).
Say you are long on BTCUSD, in profit, and you get an RSI closure above 70. Well, in that case, you could exit 50% of your position and wait for the oscillator to cross down the 70 levels to exit the rest (as the overbought and oversold zones are rarely a defining factor for trend reversals and corrections).
2. Divergences in the overbought and oversold zones :
The lower the time frame you are trading on is, the higher the noise when it comes to divergences, especially with volatile assets such as BTCUSD. So you might want to filter out most of the ones you see to only take the best ones.
On the 15M and 5M timeframes, on BTCUSD, I find that on average about 1/3 of the divergences I see play out. However, we are not expected to take every divergence we see.
Here's what has helped me get better results with divergences :
- When approaching supply and demand zones, especially the higher timeframe ones, we might want to be more aggressive with the divergences we enter into. As the hit rate is not always amazing, the R:R is usually much better, and if the trade works out, it might give you great results which accounts for the low win rate.
- If you want to increase your win rate, I also find that going for higher timeframes is usually better when it comes to divergences.
- Take only divergences where RSI divergence's first pivot point is over 70 or under 30. Ideally, you don't want the noise to go below 60, or above 40, so that your trade has the necessary momentum to play out.
- For extra confirmation, wait for a break of the noise level to enter the trade.
- Regular and hidden divergences play hand in hand creating a form of momentum equilibrium. Hidden divergences always create regular divergences and vice versa. Hence a hidden divergence can be considered an early pullback warning to get in a bigger-picture trend.
- Regular divergences tend to play out better than hidden divergences. This is especially true when the volume is decreasing, or after a longer period of consolidation when volatility has been contracting and might be about to expand soon.
- Regular divergences in strong trends can be both a disaster and a treat. "The trend is your friend". This saying is especially true here. However, 2-3 drives of regular divergences are a great indication of a potential reversal, with enough confirmation factors to produce (often time) a great entry.
- The angle of the trend line between divergences pivot points, both on the price chart and the RSI, can be a good indication of the severity of the divergence occurring.
- The ideal lookback period for detecting divergences for me has proved to be between 5 and 28 bars. (Below 5 bars is not enough to confirm a true pivot point for me and above 28 bars has probably already played out in past price movements).
- Like all edges, using a divergence strategy always produces better results when used in confluence with other signals. I find the best confluences happen when divergences occur: alongside a stochastic cross, near medium-slow moving averages, near horizontal supply and demand zones, alongside volatility expansion, when the volume is decreasing (meaning market makes are in disagreement with the move occurring), near Bollinger bands 2.5 to 3 standard deviations (period 20).
- Convergence between your timeframes and higher timeframes is key to understanding how to better choose your trades. Try to play the big divergences but enter smaller timeframes divergences.
- When you lose a divergence trade, don't get disappointed. Jump back in because often time, and price will need to do several divergences before getting in your desired direction (however, be careful not to jump in tilt mod. Know your win rate and R:R and keep your money management serious. You'll get blown out if you start tilting on this, especially if you trade reversals with divergences, as it's difficult to get the right timing every time).
3. RSI as a trend filter?
- I've found that in trending markets, when RSI's Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crosses above the 50 line, it's an indication of an uptrend and vice versa. However, this is less effective in ranging markets as there's more noise, hence more invalid crosses.
- I've found that in trending markets when the RSI line crosses above the EMA (I use a 12 period), it's an indication of an uptrend and vice versa. However, this is less effective in ranging markets as there's more noise, hence more invalid crosses.
- As an indication of the trend's direction, I don't find any value in using bullish and bearish control zones. The only use I can find them is when using them for divergence levels filters.
This is the end of the first post of this 2 parts series. There's just so much more you can discover about this indicator that it simply cannot be constricted to a few lines of writing. However, you are welcome to take a few of my findings and go test them out using replay and backtesting. See for yourself, and find your balance.
Most of my learnings have been made through screentime, trial, and error, backtesting, mistakes, and research.
Have a good day,
Arthur Girard