The Simpliest Math Behind Every Succesful TraderWhat exactly is risk management?
The ability to control your losses so that you do not lose all of your equity is referred to as risk management. This is a system that may be applied to everything that involves probabilities: trading, poker, blackjack, sports betting, and so on.
Many inexperienced traders underestimate the significance of risk management or don't understand the basics when it comes to risk management.
Would you risk $5,000 on every trade if you had a $10,000 trading account? Probably not. Because it only takes two consecutive losses in order to lose everything.
🧠 Now, let's imagine a thought experiment, in wich 🤩Alex and 🤨Peter are both traders with $10,000 in their accounts. Alex is a high-risk trader who puts $2500 risk on every trade. Peter is a cautious trader who puts $100 risk on every trade. Both apply a trading strategy that has a 50% success rate with an average risk-to-reward ratio of 1:2.
For good example, let's imagine the next 8 trades had the following results:
4 losing trades in a row
4 winning trades in a row
Here is the result for Alex: -$2,500, -$2,500, -$2,500, -$2,500 = -$10,000 Loss of the total account 😭😭😭😭
Here is the result for Peter: -$100, -$100, -$100, -$100, +$200, +$200, +$200, +$200 = +$800 Profits. 🏆 🏆 🏆 🏆
Can you tell the difference? See how risk management show the difference between being a profitable or losing trader. Peter managed to recover losing trades, and get into good profits after 8 trades. Alex didn't survive 4 trades...
🚨 You might have the finest trading strategy in the world, but if you don't manage how much you lose, you'll lose it all. It's only a matter of probability and time.
However, following this basic example will assist you to make your trading more profitable. Simply give it a shot.
Kind regards
Artem Crypto
Follow, Like and Share are appreciated!
Take a look at my other Educational ideas below:
Trading Plan
❓What's Your Trading Style❓Which of these methods is your favorite trading method? Comment below 👇
🔹 Breakout trading
Breakout trading involves identifying key levels of support and resistance and entering a trade when the price breaks through one of these levels. Traders using this strategy look for price patterns that suggest a breakout is likely to occur. For example, a trader might look for a currency pair that has been trading in a narrow range for an extended period and then enter a trade when the price breaks out of that range.
Example: A trader might identify a resistance level on the EUR/USD currency pair at 1.2000. If the price breaks through that level, the trader might enter a long position, anticipating that the price will continue to rise.
🔹 Momentum trading
Momentum trading involves entering a trade based on the strength of a trend. Traders using this strategy look for currency pairs that are trending strongly in one direction and then enter a trade in the same direction as the trend. This strategy is based on the assumption that the trend will continue.
Example: A trader might notice that the USD/JPY currency pair has been trending higher for several weeks. The trader might then enter a long position, anticipating that the trend will continue.
🔹 Reversal trading
Reversal trading involves entering a trade when a trend is about to reverse. Traders using this strategy look for signs that a trend is losing momentum or that a reversal is imminent. This strategy is based on the assumption that the trend will change direction.
Example: A trader might notice that the GBP/USD currency pair has been trending higher for several weeks but is now showing signs of weakness. The trader might then enter a short position, anticipating that the trend will reverse.
In summary, breakout trading involves entering a trade when the price breaks through a key level of support or resistance, momentum trading involves entering a trade based on the strength of a trend, and reversal trading involves entering a trade when a trend is about to reverse. Each strategy has its strengths and weaknesses, and traders should choose the strategy that best suits their trading style and risk tolerance.
👤 @AlgoBuddy
📅 Daily Ideas about market update, psychology & indicators
❤️ If you appreciate our work, please like, comment and follow ❤️
This Pivot Point Supertrend Strategy has up to 90% Success!Traders,
I'll review the Pivot Point Supertrend Trading Strategy in this video. This strategy has up to a 90% success rate with an avg. of 80-100% profits weekly. I think it's well worth our time to review and potentially implement or even automate going forward. Enjoy.
Stew
Doing this will make wealth love you more!
Avoid these four bad trading habits, and wealth will love you more!
In trading markets, whether it's cryptocurrency, forex, futures, or other markets with candlestick charts, it's not advisable to cut losses or take profits at the slightest gain or loss. You should not become greedy when you make large profits and not wait until you suffer a large loss to exit.
After opening a position, forget about your entry price, whether you're in a profitable or losing state, so you can hold more objectively, rather than wanting to exit when you've made a little profit or suffered a little loss.
It doesn't matter whether prices will rise or fall next, or whether you're in a profitable or losing state now. Your stop-loss point has already been set, and the same goes for your take-profit point. You don't need to worry about anything else. Don't make your entry price the center point of the balance, tilting left and right constantly.
The only criterion you should follow is the market situation.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD FX:EURUSD NASDAQ:IXIC TVC:USOIL COMEX:GC1!
How to learn financial investment from scratch?There are five tips to start learning finance from scratch:
Tip 1: Earning money is a prerequisite
If you don't have money, you can't invest. Therefore, earning money is the first step to finance. For office workers, salary is the main source of income, and only by continuously improving their professional skills and working hard can they improve their overall quality and get promoted.
Tip 2: Bank savings
In addition to earning money, we also need to learn how to save money. One way to do this is through bank savings. Bank savings is an important way of finance, and it is also the most common choice for finance beginners. It is recommended to regularly deposit money into the bank and avoid withdrawing it easily, so as to save money.
Tip 3: Make an expense plan
Finance needs planning, and so does spending. Saving is a common way of slow finance, but it is not a good method in the long run. It is recommended to make an expense plan that matches your income and strictly follow it.
Tip 4: Conservative investment
For investors with zero experience, it is best not to trust the recommendations of financial product salesmen, but to invest based on their own actual situation. Therefore, it is believed that conservative investment is more suitable for investors with zero experience.
Tip 5: Insurance
Insurance is also a part of finance. Many people think that insurance is not a necessary investment, but that is not true. There is a saying that anything can happen. Insurance can play its role when it is most needed, and it has the characteristic of small investment with high returns. Therefore, insurance is a long-term investment that greatly enhances personal and family risk resistance.
Although we have no experience, it is important to start learning about finance and gain experience. Learning financial knowledge is also a way to gain experience. We believe that you will succeed.
FX:EURUSD FX:GBPUSD BIST:XAUUSD1!
The U.S. Dollar Index | Everything You Need to Know
The U.S. Dollar Index is a measure of the value of the U.S. dollar against six other foreign currencies. Just as a stock index measures the value of a basket of securities relative to one another, the U.S. Dollar Index expresses the value of the dollar in relation to a “basket” of currencies. As the dollar gains strength, the index goes up and vice versa.
The strength of the dollar can be considered a temperature read of U.S. economic performance, especially regarding exports. The greater the number of exports, the higher the demand for U.S. dollars to purchase American goods.
The index is a geometric weighted average of six foreign currencies. Since the economy of each country (or group of countries) is of different size, each weighting is different. The countries included and their weights are as follows:
Euro (EUR): 57.6 percent
Japanese Yen (JPY): 13.6 percent
British Pound (GBP): 11.9 percent
Canadian Dollar (CAD): 9.1 percent
Swedish Krona (SEK): 4.2 percent
Swiss Franc (CHF): 3.6 percent
The index is calculated using the following formula:
USDX = 50.14348112 × EURUSD^-0.576 × USDJPY^0.136 × GBPUSD^-0.119 × USDCAD^0.091 × USDSEK^0.042 × USDCHF^0.036
When the U.S. dollar is used as the base currency, as in the example above, the value is positive. When the U.S. dollar is the quoted currency, the value will be negative.
We constantly monitor the performance of DXY because very often it gives us great trading opportunities.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Please, like this post and subscribe to our tradingview page!👍
Blue Pill or Red Pill? Choose your side ... and do it wisely.“You take the blue pill, the story ends. You wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill, you stay in Wonderland, and I show you how deep the rabbit hole goes." - the exact line that Morpheus used when offering Neo a choice between two options.
You may wonder how this legendary Matrix reference is related to the trading industry. Believe it or not, even though one of our favourite mottos is “beauty lies within simplicity”, trading can get much deeper and more complex (deep down the rabbit hole) than the traditional textbook method.
Firstly, we have the Blue Pill. “Mike Johnson is indicating that we should wait for a crossover of 50 and 200 Exponential Moving Average levels before executing positions”. Yes, we have all been here. The thing is, 99% of the trading courses and most of those YouTube and TikTok gurus make you believe that trading is as easy as buying when a Double Bottom is formed, selling once a Head&Shoulder pattern has been identified and so on. Obviously, if it was that easy, then everyone would have succeeded in this industry, right? “Let me spoil my charts with hundreds of indicators. Surely, if 80% of them are indicating that the market is bearish, then we should definitely go short”. Yes, been there too. Oh, and let’s not forget this one: “I will just buy at support and sell at resistance, and keep it consistent until I am profitable in the long run”. Wait, but if I have learned all that from Mike Johnson, and he claims to be an 8-digit professional trader with an experience of 20 years, why am I not succeeding? If I follow everything he says, then by the same logic, shouldn’t I be profitable just like him?
And that is exactly why we have the Red Pill. The pill that frees us from the enslaving control of the machine and guru-generated dream world. The dream world is the world where trading is super simple and is as described in the textbooks. However, going down the rabbit hole, one can realise that things are more detailed and structured than they might seem, and that more factors should be considered in analysing, executing, and monitoring setups. While a blue-pilled trader is considering an execution upon a formation of a Double Bottom, a red-pilled participant of the market is waiting for a quick spike below that pattern formation and liquidity grab before pressing the "BUY" button and riding the price to the upside. Analogically, alongside with plain support and resistance levels, a red-pilled trader uses the Fibonacci retracement tool mixed with his/her conscious intuition and years of experience to form-up a bias and enter the markets. And so the list goes on.
One thing to indicate: we are not saying that the methods listed under the Blue Pill category are useless and inefficient. As long as it works for you, you can continue following your own plan and strategy without having to give a damn about opinions and ideas of others. We are just trying to emphasise, that a trader with more experience and knowledge in the markets, and with a more detailed and structured approach of the charts will be a step ahead of those that blindly generate ideas by taking a quick look at the charts posted by others (word of mouth), following every single chart pattern suggested by John Doe on his book about the sorcery of trading.
One last mention, it all boils down to two things: consistency and persistence. No wonder that as long as you keep working on becoming a better version of yourself on and off the markets, your skills will develop further and help you with what we call "opening the 3rd eye". With time, you will make more rational decisions, you will have a clearer sight of the market, you will be more powerful psychologically. Until then, keep grinding till 3AM, keep making mistakes, stay hungry and curious. And remember one thing, only the strongest survive.
With all that being said, we would love to see a nice poll in the comment section below. Which pill are you taking: the Blue Pill or the Red Pill? Feel free to comment below and let us know your thoughts and opinions.
Have a great weekend ahead.
Investroy.
Is learning technical indicators really useful?
First of all, I'll give you an answer to this question. Learning technical indicators is helpful for analyzing market trends to some extent, but you can't rely solely on technical indicators to place trades. If a certain indicator truly had this ability, it would disrupt the market balance and create a large number of wealthy people.
Let's talk about why we can't rely solely on technical indicators for trading. There are many technical indicators that we are familiar with, such as KDJ, moving averages, and MACD, which are the most basic ones. So I ask you, if one indicator shows a bullish signal, but another shows a bearish signal, what should you do when there is a conflict? In another scenario, if the same indicator shows a bullish signal on a daily chart but a clear bearish signal on a weekly chart, how should you proceed?
Therefore, I say that it's not about learning as many technical indicators as possible, but about learning how to use them. You don't have to use them, but you can't not know how to use them because they do provide some help for analyzing market trends. For example, when multiple indicators simultaneously show signals in the same direction and the direction on various cycle charts is consistent, your order accuracy will definitely be higher.
However, for short-term traders, I suggest learning from simple indicators that are easier to understand market trends. For example, learn to observe the short-term support and resistance positions of a particular product. The market mostly oscillates, so buying low at resistance and buying high at support is the key. When the market is in a horizontal pattern, be more patient and don't rush to enter the market. Remember, good opportunities are always worth waiting for.
Being proficient in one or two analytical techniques during the early stages of trading is enough to survive in this market. Learning more will actually make you more contradictory. Of course, if you currently can't accurately judge support and resistance, you can read my daily analysis articles on market trends more often, which may be helpful to you. Feel free to leave me a message if you have any questions.
In the future, I will also update the market trends of various products in a timely manner and share some articles on trading techniques with you. Your likes and follows are my motivation for continuous updates. Thank you, everyone.
Three Taboos in Trading
1. Heavy Positions Lead to Defeat
Regardless of whether it is a long-term or short-term trade, the choice of position size may be more important than the direction chosen. Even if the short-term direction is chosen incorrectly, it is still possible to profit through position adjustments. However, if there is a habit of heavy positions in every trade, the space for operation becomes very small. In ten trades, you can win against the market ten times, but if the market wins against you once, you lose everything.
2. Frequent Trading
For novice investors, when they first enter the market, they may be eager to try and want to enter the market immediately after making a profit. Frequent trading not only increases transaction costs but also reduces the accuracy of trades. It is difficult to achieve high returns in the long run, especially for short-term traders. If you don't have full confidence, don't open a position easily. Once your daily profit reaches your expectations, you can turn off your computer and enjoy life.
Even if you incur losses that day, do not rush to place another trade. When you incur losses, your brain is not rational, and the possibility of losing on the next trade is greater. It is recommended to calmly analyze the market and wait patiently for opportunities to enter. You have to believe that there will be opportunities in the market every day, but if you lose all your capital, there will be no chance to start over.
3. Cannot Accept Stop Losses
For me, stop loss is an art. True masters often face their own mistakes and exit with a stop loss when the market clearly deviates. Sometimes, a small loss can also be considered a gain. People who refuse to admit their mistakes and want to exit every trade with a profit are often at odds with the market and are unlikely to have good results.
I have shared some personal experiences accumulated in the market. I hope my friends can avoid detours. I will also update some trading strategies every day for reference. I hope everyone can have ideal returns in this market. Your likes and follows are my motivation to continue updating.
How to Become a Top Trader ?(1)
Hello everyone, I will publish an article on how to become a top trader on the platform recently, and it will be updated continuously. This is the first article. The first thing I need to teach you is how to establish a correct investment psychology.
It is easy for novice investors to fall into a misunderstanding, especially wanting to make a profit in this market quickly, but in fact, trading is a very long process. Only through your continuous learning and a deeper understanding of the market, your wealth will increase , instead of treating trading as a gamble, and only relying on luck to make short-term profits, but as time goes by, due to lack of knowledge of the market, it will eventually lead to continuous losses.
Why do I talk about investment psychology in the first article, because I think that if the mentality of entering the market at the beginning is wrong, it will be difficult to have a good result, so I hope that after reading this article, you can have A correct investment psychology is to put our investment route on a longer-term basis, instead of hoping that a wave of market prices will make you rich overnight. You must know that Bitcoin has been an extremely long process from its release to now.
If you agree with my investment philosophy, then I hope you can pay attention to my follow-up articles. In addition to daily market analysis, I will also tell you what good habits you need to have to become a top trader. Any questions, you can comment below the article, thank you for your support and love.
Five things every beginner must know
Many people enter because they know that this market can make people rich, but if you don't know these five things, you will only be ruthlessly harvested by the market.
First: When all the analysis of the market and retail investors are firm that the market will go in a certain direction, you need to be vigilant, don't follow blindly, always believe that the truth is often in the hands of a few people, follow the "Eighty-Twenty" rule in the market, and keep a calm head.
Second: Understand the importance of stop loss. No one can guarantee that every transaction is profitable, so when the direction is wrongly judged, you must stop the loss in time. Sometimes a small loss can be considered a profit. A real master has the courage to face himself If you make a mistake, you can keep your principal to have a chance to come back..
Third: Understand the importance of stop profit, never think about earning the last copper plate in the market, because the market is changing rapidly, only the money earned in your own pocket is real, otherwise it is just a jumping number.
Fourth: Don't enter the market against the trend. When the overall market trend is one-sided, you can choose to wait and see if you don't enter the market ahead of time. Don't choose to go against the trend or enter the market forcefully. You know, the market will happen every day, you only need to catch one or two waves, and entering the market at an inappropriate time will only make you passive.
Fifth: Don’t treat trading as a gamble, and don’t take heavy positions. I personally recommend keeping the position at one-third to better resist risks. Blindly increasing your position will only make your situation more passive.
Each of the above points needs to be experienced slowly. If you can strictly implement them, then congratulations, you are considered an entry-level trader, but if you still want to continue to advance, there is still a long way to go. In addition to analyzing the market, I will also share more trading experience with my friends.
If you encounter any problems in the current transaction, you can leave me a message at any time, and I will reply to you. Thank you for your attention and let us make progress together
5 New Algorithmic Trading StrategiesAlgorithmic trading has transformed the financial markets in recent years, enabling traders to make better-informed investment decisions and execute trades more quickly and accurately than ever before. As technology continues to evolve, new algorithmic trading strategies and techniques are emerging that promise to revolutionize the way that financial instruments are traded. In this article, we will discuss five new algorithmic trading strategies and techniques that are gaining popularity among traders.
Machine Learning-Based Trading
Machine learning is a branch of artificial intelligence that allows algorithms to learn from data and improve their performance over time. Machine learning-based trading is a strategy that uses algorithms to identify patterns in financial data and make predictions about future market movements. These algorithms can learn from both historical data and real-time market information to make trading decisions that are informed by a deep understanding of the underlying trends and patterns in the market.
High-Frequency Trading
High-frequency trading (HFT) is a strategy that uses algorithms to execute trades at lightning-fast speeds, often in milliseconds or microseconds. This strategy requires sophisticated algorithms and high-speed networks to be effective, and it is typically used by institutional investors and large trading firms. HFT is often associated with controversial practices such as front-running and flash crashes, but it can also be used to improve market liquidity and reduce trading costs for investors.
Sentiment Analysis
Sentiment analysis is a technique that uses natural language processing algorithms to analyze the tone and sentiment of news articles, social media posts, and other sources of public information. This technique can be used to identify trends and patterns in public sentiment that may affect the price of financial instruments. For example, if a news article about a company is overwhelmingly positive, sentiment analysis algorithms may predict that the stock price of that company will rise in the short term.
Multi-Asset Trading
Multi-asset trading is a strategy that involves trading multiple financial instruments across different markets and asset classes. This strategy requires algorithms that can analyze a wide range of data sources, including market news, economic indicators, and social media sentiment, to make informed decisions about which assets to trade and when to enter or exit positions. Multi-asset trading is often used by institutional investors and hedge funds to diversify their portfolios and hedge against market risk.
Quantum Computing-Based Trading
Quantum computing is a cutting-edge technology that promises to revolutionize many fields, including finance. Quantum computing-based trading is a strategy that uses algorithms that run on quantum computers to analyze complex financial data and make trading decisions. Quantum computing algorithms are able to analyze a much larger amount of data than classical computing algorithms, which can enable traders to identify hidden patterns and relationships in financial data that are difficult to detect using traditional techniques.
In conclusion, algorithmic trading is an exciting and rapidly evolving field that is transforming the financial markets. The five strategies and techniques discussed in this article represent some of the most promising developments in the field, and they are likely to play a major role in the future of trading. As technology continues to advance, it is important for traders to stay informed about the latest developments in algorithmic trading and adopt new strategies and techniques to stay ahead of the curve.
What News to Follow | Top 5 Forex Fundamentals
Economic indicators and announcements are an essential part of fundamental analysis. Even if you’re not planning on finding trades using fundamentals, it’s a good idea to pay attention to how the overall economy is performing.
Here’s a cheat sheet covering six key indicators and announcements to watch out for.
1. Non-farm payrolls (NFP)
The non-farm payrolls report estimates the net number of jobs gained in the US in the previous month – excluding those in farms, private households and non-profit organisations.
2. Consumer price index (CPI)
The chief measure of inflation is the consumer price index, which measures the changing prices of a group of consumer goods and services.
3. Central bank meetings
As we’ve seen, most traders follow economic figures so they can anticipate what a central bank might do next. So, it only makes sense that we pay attention to what happens when they actually meet and make decisions.
4. Consumer and business sentiment reports
Multiple organisations are constantly surveying consumers and business leaders to create sentiment reports. While the number of reports they produce is staggering, they all play their part in shaping the markets’ expectation for the future.
5. Purchasing manager index (PMI)
Purchasing manager indices measure the prevailing direction of economic trends in a given industry, according to the view of its purchasing managers. They are used as an indicator of the overall health of a sector.
Pay close attention to these fundamentals.
They play a crutial role in trading.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Please, like this post and subscribe to our tradingview page!👍
The most common mistakes in trading
Today, I will share a practical secret that I have learned for many years. Don’t hesitate when trading. If you hesitate, then don’t trade in the short term.
Many people also have the habit of making trading plans. For example, I will enter the market at any position today, but when the opportunity really arises, I hesitate to make a decision. After the market ends, I find that I have made a profit, but I did not enter the market, and wait until the opportunity appears again. At that time, I thought to wait a little longer, but it turned out to be profitable again, and I still didn’t enter the market. Finally, I finally made up my mind that the next time I was in this position, I would definitely enter the market. As a result, when he entered the market, what he ushered in was a loss.
In fact, in the trading market, good entry opportunities are fleeting and will not come often. If frequent entry opportunities appear, it must be a trap. When you have made a plan, all you need to do is Strictly implement, if you have no confidence when you enter the market, then I suggest that you do not make any transactions in the short term, because your plan has been disrupted, and the market likes to confuse your eyes and challenge your bottom line. It's also a psychological game.
I make my trading plan every day and strictly implement it, so friends who follow me can receive my plan as soon as possible, which can be used as a reference, but I will choose to enter the market at the first time, if you hesitate, choose the second The second or third chance to enter the market, the probability of loss will increase a lot, so don’t do this, you can consult me to get the latest plan.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
How to become a master trader?
First:Making Plans
Before trading every day, make a trading plan, so how to make a good plan?
Take XAUUSD for example,If you mainly focus on short-term operations, focus on the key support and key resistance within the day, buy up at the support level, buy down at the resistance level, sell high and buy low, if you cannot accurately determine where the support and resistance are , you can see my daily analysis articles.
In addition, when making a plan, you must set the stop profit and stop loss points. The stop profit must be greater than the stop loss. The reason for this is that even if your accuracy rate does not reach 50%, you can still make profits in the long run.
Second:Implement
After making a trading plan, what you have to do is to strictly implement it. You need to have confidence in your plan and don’t doubt your judgment because of the turmoil in the market. You need to know that the truth is often in the hands of a few people.
Third:review
Regardless of whether you are making a profit or a loss in today's transaction, you need to review the market. When you make a profit, you need to consider whether the take-profit position set this time is reasonable, and whether the profit can be enlarged next time. Of course, you also need to learn how to stop in moderation.
Of course, we can’t avoid the situation where we misjudged the direction. At this time, we need to consider whether we have strictly implemented the stop loss operation. In many cases, small losses are out, and keeping the principal is also a very correct operation. More people They will stop profit, but they can’t accept the loss, which leads to a mistake and loses the whole game. Therefore, it is said that those who can buy are apprentices, and those who can sell are masters.
Fourth:Summarize
Making a trading plan is a good habit, and it will accompany you throughout your life. Don’t think it’s a good habit just because you’ve made money for several days in a row, and you’ll feel that making a plan is useless because you’ve lost money for a few days in a row. The meaning, a simple summary is to make a good plan, strictly implement it, review it many times, and believe in yourself.
I will formulate my trading plan every day, and then share it with you, hoping to make progress together with you. At any time, we are in awe of the market and let ourselves go further through planning. This market will always eliminate some people. Don’t believe it Luck, that kind of thing will run out sooner or later, friends are welcome to discuss with me.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Full Time Trading VS Full Time Job | Everything You Need to Know
Hey traders,
In this educational article, we will compare full-time trading and full-time job.
And I guess, the essential thing to start with is the money aspect.
Full-time job guarantees you a stable month-to-month income with the pre-arranged bonuses.
In contrast, trading does not give any guarantees. You never know whether a current trading month will be profitable or not.
Of course, the average annual earnings of a full-time trader are substantially higher than of an employee. However, you should realize the fact that some trading periods will be negative, some will be around breakeven and only some will be highly profitable.
In addition to a stable salary, a full time job usually offers a paid sick-leave and vacation, while being a full-time trader, no one will compensate you your leaves making the position of an employee much more sustainable.
Being an employee, you usually work in an office with the fixed working hours. Taking into consideration that people often spend a quite substantial time to get to work and then to get home, a full-time job usually consumes at least 10 hours, not leaving a free-time.
In contrast, full-time traders are very flexible with their schedule.
Even though they usually stick to a fixed working plan, they spend around 3-4 hours a day on trading. All the rest is their free time, that they can spend on whatever they want.
Moreover, traders are not tied to their working place. They can work from everywhere, the only thing that they need is their computer and internet connection.
Traders normally work alone. The main advantage of that is the absence of a subordination. You are your own boss and you follow your own rules. However, such a high level of freedom breeds a high level of personal responsibility. We should admit the fact that not every person can organize himself.
In addition to that, working alone implies that you are not building social connections and you don't have colleagues.
Being an employee, you are the part of a hierarchy. You usually have some subordinates, but you have a supervisor as well.
You are constantly among people, you build relationships, and you are never alone.
There is a common bias among people, that full time trading beats full time job in all the aspects. In these article, I was trying to show you that it is not the fact. Both have important advantages and disadvantages. It is very important for you to completely realize them before you decide whether you want to trade full time or have a full time job.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Various phases of the market and identification of a trendThere is a famous saying in the world of trading: trend is your friend until it tends to bend. Following the mighty trend and riding its impulsive moves is one of the most satisfying feelings out there. There are several ways of identifying a trend and hoping on it. One group of people favours using indicators such as SMAs or EMAs for this case. Another group of traders prefers sticking with price action and technical analysis.
In this educational idea, we are gonna show two techniques that can be utilised for determining a trend looking at multiple timeframes and examining various factors.
First of all, for identifying a trend, we filter out all small timeframes and stick with the big ones like the Monthly, Weekly, Daily. STF graphs are filled with noise and indecision. Whereas, HTF charts show the bigger picture and make it easier for us to predict where the price is headed. Second, as we know, the market has three phases: uptrend (bull market), downtrend (bear market), range (kangaroo market).
As long as the price keeps printing Higher Low and Higher High points, the market is in a bullish phase. Vice versa, if Lower Lows and Lower Highs are being formed, it signifies that bears are in control. Another method that we could utilise to determine a trend is by using line charts instead of candlesticks. Due to the fact that a line chart filters out all the noise, we get a clear picture of the ongoing trend.
On the other hand, Differing from an actual trend, ranging markets are associated with indecision, choppiness, and imbalance. Such "kangaroo" markets are formed when bulls and bears fight each other over direction. This traps the price within borders of a sideways-moving rectangular range.
All in all, even though the process looks simple, it can get tricky and confusing from time to time. Therefore, always and always, stick to the plan, be risk tolerant, remain disciplined and patient.
How to create simple web-hook to send alerts to TelegramHello Traders,
In this video, I have demonstrated how to create a simple web-hook which can send your Tradingview alerts to Telegram channel or group for zero cost.
⬜ Tools Used
▶ Telegram Messenger
▶ Replit - Cloud platform for hosting small programs
▶ Postman - To test web-hooks before going live (Optional)
▶ Cronjob - To set health-check and keep bot alive
⬜ Steps
▶ Create Telegram Bot
Find BotFather and issue command /newbot
Provide bot name
Provide bot username - which should be unique and end with _bot
Once bot is created, you will get a message with token access key in it. Store the token access key.
▶ Prepare Telegram Channel
Create new telegram channel
Add the bot @username_to_id_bot to it as admin and issue /start to find chat id
Store the chat id and dismiss @username_to_id_bot from channel
Find the bot created in previous step using bot username and add it to channel as admin
▶ Setup replit
Create a free Replit account if you do not have it already.
Fork the repl - Tradingview-Telegram-Bot to your space and give a name of your choice.
Set environment variables - TOKEN and CHANNEL which are acquired from previous steps.
Run the REPL
▶ Test with postman
Use the URL on repl and create web-hook post request URL by adding /webhook to it.
Create post request on postman and send it.
You can see that messages sent via postman appearing in your telegram channel.
append ?jsonRequest=true if you are using json output from alerts.
Json request example:
▶ Set alerts from tradingview to web-hook
Use web-hook option and enter the webhook tested from postman in the web-hook URL
And that's all, the webhook for Telegram Alerts is ready!!
Thanks for watching. Hope you enjoyed the video and learned from it :)
PS: I have made use of extracts from the open github repo: github.com
Always factor in the possibility of the market’s developmentHello Traders:
First educational video since I went away 8 months ago :)
This topic has been brought up many times, and I wanted to prepare this video for those who are still struggling with the concept of possibility in the market.
Many inconsistent traders, when taking losses, often look at their strategy as the reason why the losses occurred.
They often fail to see that the real problem often lies with emotion, psychology, risk:reward, rather than strategy.
A good rule of thumb when approaching the market is to have a clear mind and expect anything can happen, regardless of technical analysis.
That means, even if a certain setup is developing, there is still probability that you will take a loss after entering. No strategy can give you 100% win rate.
No matter how clean the setup is, or how it mimics the past price action or setups, the market can still not go with what you wish it to go.
So, when we are waiting for a setup to happen before taking the trade, try to think on the other side as well.
If you are looking for a long setup, also think about whether there is a possibility of a sell, and does sell also make sense.
As an example, here on USDJPY, I have seen traders share their bullish view and bias.
Certainly nothing wrong to follow through with your own view and forecast, however, I would suggest to also look into the possibility of a sell potential. Does the sell potential also make sense ?
What if both bullish and bearish outlook exist ? then does it make sense to execute the trade ?
5 red flags: When to change your trading strategy?Trading is a constant balancing act between risk and reward. Developing a successful trading strategy is a significant accomplishment in its own right, but it is equally important to know when it is time to adjust your approach or when to abandon it altogether. To help you stay ahead of the curve, I've identified the 5 telltale red flags that signal it could be time to change your strategy. Whether it's a shift in market conditions or a decline in performance, these red flags are crucial indicators that something needs to change.
Why can live trading results deviate from backtest?
It is not uncommon for live trading results to differ from the results obtained during backtesting. The main reasons for it are:
1. Improper Backtesting Methodology
This is kind of an "umbrella term" for everything that can go wrong while backtesting, but the facts remain: Backtesting requires a robust methodology to provide reliable results. If the methodology is flawed, the results of the backtest may not accurately reflect the strategy's performance. Common issues include overfitting to past data, using insufficient data ( or cherry-picking your data - talk about introducing a bias into your results! ), or not accounting for transaction costs.
2. Overfitting to Past Data
The most common culprit for live trading performance not achieving backtesting expectations is overfitting to past data. Overfitting occurs when a strategy is designed to fit the past performance of a market too closely, leading to a false representation of its potential future performance. Overfitted strategies have beautiful backtesting results but live trading performance fails to deliver even a resemblance of such results. A typical example would be using an overly specific period of any indicator - such as EMA(103).
3. Strategy Not as Robust as Thought
Backtesting can provide a false sense of security, and traders may not fully appreciate the limitations of their strategy until they begin live trading. For example, a strategy that performs well in a trending market environment may not perform well in ranging conditions, or a strategy may be vulnerable to certain market events that were not accounted for during backtesting.
4. Execution Issues
Live trading often involves executing trades in real-time, which can be subject to various challenges that were not present during backtesting. For example, slippage, latency, or data inaccuracies can all affect the performance of a strategy.
5. Market Conditions Have Changed
I almost don't want to add this one to the list, because I worry most people will use this as a scapegoat, and not examine in detail all the previously mentioned reasons, that they actually can influence. But the fact is, the market is dynamic, and conditions can change rapidly. Changes in central bank policy, the introduction of new market participants, shifts in investor sentiment, or changes in economic conditions can all impact a strategy's performance.
You must be aware of these potential issues and take steps to address them. This includes ensuring a robust backtesting methodology, regularly monitoring and adjusting the strategies, and being prepared to adapt to changing market conditions.
What to do if your strategy shows any of these red flags
When you encounter red flags in your trading strategy, it's crucial to take prompt and decisive action. Personally, if my strategy deviates beyond the backtested results in any of the five metrics mentioned below, I immediately stop live trading and switch to paper trading to monitor its performance.
A robust backtesting methodology should provide a reliable indicator of the strategy's performance, and any deviation from the backtested results should be taken as a sign that further examination is needed. I cannot recommend any leniency in this matter ( translation: Every time I did, it was a painful lesson ).
If you're getting to this position often, it suggests that your backtesting methodology is not robust enough. My guess is: you are either overfitting to past data, or introducing any of the dozens of biases that come with backtesting.
The red flags
I picked these red flags because of their importance or ability to provide a signal early on. It's important to note that the following list is possibly subjective. Not everyone will agree with me on this list. Everyone will agree, however, that it is a good reason to stop a strategy from live trading if it has significantly deviated from its backtested results .
Many traders mistakenly believe that an automated strategy is a "set-and-forget" system. It's not. It is crucial to monitor its performance and be prepared to make adjustments or even stop the strategy if necessary. You might monitor different parameters than me, but you need to monitor something. Make sure your hard work of testing and developing a strategy with a positive expectancy doesn't go to waste.
1. Max drawdown
The first and most critical red flag to watch out for is the difference in maximum drawdown between the live trading strategy and its backtested version . Maximum drawdown is a measure of the largest decrease from a peak to a trough in the value of your portfolio balance, expressed as a percentage of the drop from the peak value. Say you started with 100, traded the account up to 150 with a handful of wins, and now you are at 135 after two losses. Your current drawdown is 10%, and as long as your drop from the current peak was not higher until now, this is also your max drawdown.
The drawdown curve as a whole is a crucial indicator to monitor. Its other secondary parameters can provide further insight into the performance of your trading strategy. These include:
The steepness of the drawdown curve - a steep curve indicates a rapid decrease in value caused by a handful of big losses, while a more gradual curve indicates a slower decline - a longer streak of smaller losses.
The number of trades it took to reach the maximum drawdown - a high number of trades indicates a long period of poor performance, while a low number indicates a short period of sizeable losses.
Total recovery time - the length of time it takes to recover from the maximum drawdown can provide insight into the resilience of your strategy. Generally, you want a more resilient strategy with quick recovery.
By monitoring these parameters in addition to the maximum drawdown, you can gain a more comprehensive understanding of the performance of your trading strategy and make informed decisions about any necessary changes.
Side note: To help you gauge the downside risk, calculate your strategy's Ulcer Index .
2. The losing streak length and frequency
A losing streak is a consecutive sequence of trades that result in losses. If the maximum length of the losing streak in live trading exceeds the results obtained during backtesting, it could indicate that the strategy may not be as consistent or reliable as originally believed.
Try to examine how you would feel in these streaks. If, for example, your strategy regularly alternates between wins and losses, you'll probably feel fine. But if you have periods of long winning streaks and then periods of long losing streaks, it could be emotionally hard to handle. You could get an "itchy hand" and try to fiddle with your strategy even if the losing streak should have been expected since it occurred in the backtest.
3. The Recovery time
The total drawdown time can be oversimplified as follows:
Total Drawdown Time = Drawdown Time + Recovery Time
We looked at the Drawdown time already - in the first red flag, so let's examine the recovery time.
The recovery time is the time it takes for the strategy to return to a profitable state from the point of max drawdown.
For the recovery time, I have basically only one rule: It has to be more aggressive, than the drawdown time. I want to see a faster recovery than the drawdown time. This happens when your average win is larger than your average loss. Such behavior I consider healthy, and it only motivates me to look at the drawdown period more closely ( Is there a pattern in the drawdown occurrences? Can I identify them and filter them out somehow? )
4. Win rate
This red flag is self-explanatory. The win rate of your live traded strategy should not be significantly different from the backtested version. However, you need to make sure you have enough data before you make any decisions. And therefore it is not the first actionable indicator that something might have gone awry.
5. The trade duration
The trade duration difference between your strategy's backtested and live traded versions is another vital red flag to look out for. Trade duration refers to the time a trade is kept open, from entry to exit.
If, for example, the trade duration in your backtest was anywhere between 30 min and 4 hours, but in live trading conditions, you observe a handful of trades with a duration of 20 hours. Is that a cause for concern? Does it warrant stopping the strategy?
Consider the reasons behind such deviations, as it could be an early example of changing market conditions, mismatches in trade execution, or other factors. In the above example, if you opened a trade at the end of the New York session and closed in the London session, maybe the Asian countries had a national holiday and therefore left markets completely illiquid, but the strategy did what was expected.
It is also a good idea to look at the distribution of trades in time. For example, if your backtesting was calibrated to trade during the London and New York sessions, but the live trading strategy generates the majority of trades during the Asian session, this could be a sign of discrepancies that might need to be addressed.
Conclusion
Knowing when to stop a strategy from live trading is integral to the day trading process. By closely monitoring key metrics and values, and comparing them to the results of your backtesting, you can make an informed decision about whether to continue using a strategy, invest time in improving it, or stop it altogether and look for a better one. And whether you monitor the same indicators or develop your own, as long as you regularly check in on your strategy's results, you are on your way to improving your chances of achieving long-term profitability.
I wish you all the best in your trading journey!
An updated version of my limit order strategyIt's been a while since I've posted anything here. I mostly don't hang out on tradingview anymore, but still check in every now and again.
Anyway, if you're reading this, you're probably familiar with my old limit order breakout-retest strategy, where you're pricing the market on breakouts and collecting profits on retests. I've updated this for reliability, but it is more difficult to execute now so you'll have to pay attention and spend a good amount of time testing this for yourself on a demo account.
The method is simple (to me at least):
1) With limit orders, you're attempting to go with the direction of the trend. This means that in an uptrend, you're going to find the breakout point of the current move and the swing low from the previous move.
2) From the breakout point to the latest high, you're going to either eyeball a 50% retracement level, or draw a chart for it (will show this below), and then you're going to be placing tiny limit orders going all the way from that 50% retracement down to the swing low of the previous move. You're going to price the market in a wide area this way. You will likely require a script or a bot to do this, as it's slow with inconsistent spacing if you do it by hand.
3) You're going to have a hedge stop instead of a stop loss, at the swing low of the previous move. This is where it gets dangerous and will require practice.
The hedge stop will be a stop order with a position size equal to all of your limits combined.
I said kind of a lot in all those pics, but I hope I got the message across. :D
Make sure you get yourself a script or bot of some sort to deploy those limit orders. If you do it by hand, you'll likely have less of them (which is fine), but always understand your risk before the play is made. On metatrader, I use a "Lines profit loss" indicator to show me the accumulated total of all of my trades. I can drag the line along the screen to see what my P&L will be if price reaches x point. You should get something like this too, or commission it if your platform doesn't have it. Understanding risk numbers is very important for this strategy.
Anyway. I hope this helps someone!
Manipulation strategyWe all know that markets are highly manipulated and the traders have to look for a signs of manipulation.
There are a lot of types of manipulation - imbalance, candle without wick, liquidity grab and so on. On the chart I marked few areas, where price was manipulated and reversed.
The strategy shows you how to recognise the manipulation patterns. It is based on smart money concept, but it is more focused on the liquidity grab and the low liquidity moves.
So for example:
On this chart I marked areas, where price created low liquidity moves and the results are strong movements on the manipulated direction.
Why these examples are low liquidity moves?
Because price cleared a lot of stop losses and inject fresh money in the market. The banks do not invest into the markets, they generate money in order to profit.
In the first rectangle (lower one) - price created triple bottom - this is a major reversal retail pattern and created major liquidity pool, but look closer. Creating the pattern, price also took out lot of liquidity and moved away.
In the second rectangle (the wedge) - price also created low liquidity move, because every time it gave strong signs of reversal tricking the traders to sell or buy and then took them out.
Rule : In order price to move in one direction the institutions must buy or sell. To accumulate orders they should inject money in the market. The injections are liquidity grab in many ways and types.
The markets can not move always with low liquidity moves and always stay in efficiency. The liquidity must to be created first, so that traders can come into the market and later to be taken out.
As every strategy the "Manipulation strategy" sometimes give us false signals, but it is most accurate strategy.
For example in consolidation we may see many false signals, but this is not because the strategy failed, it is because price was manipulated constantly.
This is not smart money concept. The strategy is not focused on order blocks and breaker blocks, it is focused on low liquidity moves.
The manipulation areas are also the true support and resistance, because when the banks buy or sell from the specific level, they will protect this level, if it is not targeted.
Markets moves up and down, taking the buy side and sell side liquidity, this is the way that swings are formed. They are not forming based on retail support and resistance or Fibonacci numbers.
How to use:
1) Calculate the liquidity - look for retail pattern - double top/bottom, previous high or low, support or resistance or every other obvious buy/sell zone.
2) Wait price to clear the level - liquidity grab.
3) Wait until price form low liquidity move(pattern).
4) Buy/Sell to the opposite liquidity pool.
🧊The Iceberg Illusion In TradingThe iceberg illusion in trading refers to the perception gap between what people think trading is and what it actually means. Many people see trading as a simple way to make quick profits and accumulate wealth, with the idea that all one has to do is buy low and sell high. However, the reality is far more complex. Under the surface of what appears to be a straightforward process lies a world of risk, stress, and uncertainty. Trading is not just about making money, it requires discipline, patience, and a deep understanding of the markets. Those who don't understand the true nature of trading may face financial loss, depression and failure, much like the hidden dangers beneath the surface of an iceberg. Success in trading often requires much more than just a basic understanding of market trends and patterns, and those who dive in without being fully prepared may face dire consequences.
🔷 Above the Iceberg
Above the iceberg, people often see the glamorous and attractive side of trading, characterized by success, wealth, and financial independence. They imagine traders as confident and knowledgeable individuals, making smart decisions and reaping the rewards of their investments. The image of traders making large profits in a short amount of time is one that is often perpetuated by media and popular culture. People often see the stock market as a fast-paced, exciting place where opportunities for financial gain are abundant, and the idea of being able to control one's financial future through trading is alluring. This perception of trading often creates a rosy and idealized image of what it entails, leading many to believe that success in the markets is easy to achieve.
🔶 Bellow the Iceberg
Below the iceberg, lies the reality of the challenges and difficulties that traders face on a daily basis. There are many hidden risks and uncertainties that are not immediately apparent to those who are new to the world of trading. Some of the things that people don't know that lie beneath the surface of the iceberg include:
🔸 Market volatility:
The stock market is a highly volatile environment, and prices can fluctuate rapidly and unpredictably. This can make it difficult for traders to manage their positions and minimize their losses.
🔸 Emotional stress:
Trading can be a highly emotional experience, and the pressure to make the right decisions can be immense. Many traders struggle with anxiety, fear, and depression, particularly when faced with losing trades.
🔸 Lack of understanding:
The stock market is complex, and it can be difficult for traders to understand all of the factors that influence market trends and prices. This can lead to costly mistakes and an increased risk of financial loss.
🔸 Competition:
The stock market is a highly competitive environment, and traders must be able to keep up with fast-moving markets and make quick decisions based on complex data and information.
🔸 Long-term success:
Many traders are focused on short-term profits and may not consider the long-term impact of their trading decisions. Achieving lasting success in the markets requires a well-thought-out strategy and a strong understanding of the markets and the risks involved.
🔸 Timing:
Successful trading often requires precise timing, as markets can change rapidly and prices can fluctuate. Traders must have a deep understanding of market trends and be able to make quick decisions to take advantage of opportunities.
🔸 Risk management:
Trading involves risk, and traders must be able to manage their positions and minimize their losses. This requires a well-planned and executed risk management strategy, including setting stop-losses and taking profits at appropriate levels.
🔸 Knowledge and experience:
Trading is not just about buying low and selling high. It requires a deep understanding of market trends, economics, and financial analysis, as well as years of experience to develop a successful trading strategy.
🔸 Discipline:
Trading requires discipline and patience, as well as the ability to stick to a well-thought-out strategy. Many traders make impulsive decisions based on emotions or market rumors, which can lead to financial losses.
Welcome to the hardest game in the world.
👤 @AlgoBuddy
📅 Daily Ideas about market update, psychology & indicators
❤️ If you appreciate our work, please like, comment and follow ❤️