Fundamental Analysis in Forex Trading
Economic indicators and announcements are an essential part of fundamental analysis. Even if you’re not planning on finding trades using fundamentals, it’s a good idea to pay attention to how the overall economy is performing.
Here’s a cheat sheet covering six key indicators and announcements to watch out for.
1. Non-farm payrolls (NFP)
The non-farm payrolls report estimates the net number of jobs gained in the US in the previous month – excluding those in farms, private households and non-profit organisations.
2. Consumer price index (CPI)
The chief measure of inflation is the consumer price index, which measures the changing prices of a group of consumer goods and services.
3. Central bank meetings
As we’ve seen, most traders follow economic figures so they can anticipate what a central bank might do next. So, it only makes sense that we pay attention to what happens when they actually meet and make decisions.
4. Consumer and business sentiment reports
Multiple organisations are constantly surveying consumers and business leaders to create sentiment reports. While the number of reports they produce is staggering, they all play their part in shaping the markets’ expectation for the future.
5. Purchasing manager index (PMI)
Purchasing manager indices measure the prevailing direction of economic trends in a given industry, according to the view of its purchasing managers. They are used as an indicator of the overall health of a sector.
Pay close attention to these fundamentals.
They play a crutial role in trading.
Trading Plan
How you trade impacts how you feel 😀It's no secret that managing your trading psychology is the biggest challenge in your trading journey.
Some say it counts for 80%+ of what's needed to be successful.
I totally agree...
However, there's a key factor in this for me.
How you actually trade to start with!
Correct trading psychology starts by realising you need a strategy.
If you're guessing with no real plan or risk management surely you're going to be more stressed and overwhelmed than a trader who has a plan, has the data to support his strategy and manages his risk?
So once you get your system/strategy nailed on, this in turn will help manage your fear.
Greed is another factor, but this comes from your expectation.
Expectations and reality need to be aligned with one another.
Your expectations can come from your data and your testing.
But if you've skipped this step you'll be chasing unrealistic expectations.
Not just in terms of % gains, but in understanding your drawdown periods too.
So in summary both are completely related. You give me a trader that's really struggling with his trading mindset and fear and within a month they won't be feeling the same way.
Likewise, if give me a trader who is calm and in tune with his system and emotions, we'll quickly change this by getting him to trade randomly!
No trading psychology means no trading strategy, No trading strategy means no trading psychology. These two elements are so intertwined.
Thanks for looking at my idea.
Darren 👍
The reason you are not successful...Hello traders,
All the below are based on my preferences, I don't give any financial recommendations and I have nothing to sell you with this article.
I'm sharing content because I see a lot of traders being/becoming broke and I don't want you to be one of them.
Yesterday, I posted an article about how to NOT overtrade when you're emotions are running high:
Now, I'd like to flip the other side of that coin showing how "overtrading" can be beneficial for beginners to achieve their desired outcome. 🧵
I - Alex Hormozi
I discovered this OUTCOME equation thanks to Alex Hormozi on Youtube.
He helped me defining clearly with words how to get to the outcome I want.
Props to him for being such a wonderful business/sales/marketing/thinker.
II - The OUTCOME equation
The equation is defined as: VOLUME x SKILL x TIME = OUTCOME
VOLUME = number of repetitions
SKILL = quality of each repetition
TIME = total duration of practicing those repetitions
Based in foundational principales
The more we do.... the better we get
The better we get.... the more we do
The longer we do it....the better we get
The better we get....the longer we do it
The longer we do it...the more what we did compounds on itself (profit, reducing losses, etc)
In this way, each of the three feed the others, but it all starts with doing .
It's a virtuous wonderful cycle: imgur.com
It works for any skill you want to acquire but let's focus on trading for now.
After years of trading, any of my trade has a higher quality than my trades from my early days.
Why?
Because I spent an enormous amount of time trading intraday first with a demo account, and then with a live account trading with micro-lots/micro-pips.
Once I got profitable CONSISTENTLY for a few weeks, I allowed myself to increase my lot size slightly.
I repeated this cycle made of mini weekly cycles for more than 5 years until I'll reach a capital allowing me to trade the indices futures.
III - Why 97% of traders fail at trading
The majority of traders lose due to a lack of experience which can only come with taking a lot of trades during an extended period of time.
There is no other way....
Forget about getting rich quickly, forget about your 100% automated bots - if such wonders existed, no one in their right mind would sell them and they'd invest everything they and their family own in those magical cashflow generating machines instead...
New traders think only a few weeks of practicing is required to learn about themselves and about the markets.
Your favorite influencers won't tell you this: trading is very hard, most lose all their money, lose their family, lose their home, lose themselves in the process.
The only hedge you have is your WORK.... you can't cheat the GAME.... you have to take a lot of trades for an extended period of time.....
And then, at some point, you'll be able to capture more opportunity per trade, to lose less whenever your Stop Loss is hit, to not get frustrated when the price is leaving without you
All those skills cannot be acquired in weeks ....
One cannot develop character traits required to be a good trader in a short timeframe - talking about patience, discipline and motivated.
Motivated too because it's hard to keep one's dopamine level high after some consecutive days of losing
Don't cheat the game, it's impossible
If you're not profitable yet, forget about leverage please please please please.
How many times do you have to get margin called to understand that leverage wasn't invented for you to make money but to depart from it faster.
IV - True Effort
When learning a new skill at the beginning, everyone sucks.
I certainly sucked at it and you will too.
THAT IS FINE, THIS IS OKAY, THERE IS NOTHING WRONG
How could you not expect to suck at a skill you don't know yet.
What I'm saying is unpleasant because everyone wants to get rich quick (me included)
My only guarantee to YOU guys is that if you can afford to follow this process with a decent trading strategy and stay consistent, your gains are going to be tiny at the beginning and then PARABOLIC after some time.
As the desired OUTCOME is to become richer and/or live off your trading again, this is the ONLY way
It's IMPOSSIBLE to suck at trading after taking thousands and thousands of trades.
As it's impossible to suck at anything after months and months of constant practice and effort.
And you can learn with a DEMO account (risk-free) or with betting pennies per every trade using CFDs or other similar product.
If you want to learn how to play piano, if you follow some tutorials on Youtube every day and practice 2-3 hours a day for years, I guarantee you that you'll have an excellent playing level.
Stop being lazy, stop cheating the game, stop searching for the way to get rich quick.
Accept the magic pill doesn't exist BUT another way that no one is doing will allow you be DIRECTIONALLY RIGHT and eventually reaching your desired OUTCOME.
Conclusion
I wanted to post this content because this outcome equation is dear to my heart and changed my life for the better
I'm literally kicking ass because I outworked everyone I know
And now that I'm more skilled than them, I can put off my foot from the accelerator working less than them, making more $$ than them
Thank you for reading by dear followers
PS
To all those in the comments about to tell me they have a magical bot printing $$ for them and their community, I invite you to show me your track records and bank account statements and any proof I could believe you didn't use photoshop on to sugarcoat what the reality is...
The 12 Days of Effective Trading Learning
Hey traders,
In this article, we gathered for you 1 2-days intensive trading learning marathon.
We hope that it will help.
1 Day:
Practice placing support and resistance lines.
2 Day:
Perfect placing trend lines.
3 Day:
Study candlestick patterns.
4 Day:
Review chart patterns.
5 Day:
Practice placing fibonacci retracements.
6 Day:
Learn about moving average.
7 Day:
Master market structure.
8 Day:
Watch videos on momentum oscillators.
9 Day:
Learn about divergence.
10 Day:
Study risk managment.
11 Day:
Review fundamental literature.
12 Day:
Create a trading plan.
Let us know if such a marathon helped you in your journey.
How to stop overtrading and get rid of your trading addictionHello traders,
All the below are based on my preferences, I don't give any financial recommendations and I have nothing to sell you with this article.
I'm sharing content because I see a lot of traders being/becoming broke and I don't want you to be one of them.
Here's how to stop overtrading and get rid of your trading addiction:🧵
I - Define a set of rules
The first key to stop overtrading is establishing a set of rules
Create a set of rules so you know when you SHOULD stop over-trading.
It can be based on $ gain/loss or just the amount of trades taken.
Either way, there needs to be a written list you can follow.
For example, let's say I want to make X dollars per month with equates to X/20 (give or take) dollars to make in average per trading day.
Once for a given day I've reached that goal, I'm stopping myself from trading more.
Why? Who here kept trading after making a decent amount of money and ended up losing all the gains?
The reason being, we're humans and not naturally wired to trade.
After making some money, we all tend to become greedy, taking more risks, also not seeing obvious signs we usually see when we're focused.
II - Find a hobby
The second key is having a hobby.
Something you can do once you've stopped trading
It could be...
- Working out (I'm working out twice a day for health benefits but also to meditate and to stop thinking about my trades)
Of course, as an intraday trader, I'm going to workout whenever with 0 opened intraday trade
When I'm invested in SWING trading, I'm taking trades with big enough timeframes so that it's totally fine if I'm not checking the charts for multiple hours in a row
- Doing chores
Could also be cooking for yourself or your family
- Talking to a friend
Trading is a passion and if you're passionate about it, your friends will likely want to hear your thoughts about the markets, the trades
Of course, don't give them any financial advice :)
You don't want to be in a position of recommending or not recommending an action as they may blame you for their losses.
Stay neutral, only share what you're doing and why you love doing it
- Writing
Writing or Journaling helps me clearing
As long as you have SOMETHING you can do everyday after trading
It should help you out
Mine is after 3 consecutive intraday losses, I stop for the session (morning or afternoon) and head to working out, walking, doing anything else other than trading
III - Find a buddy
I would also suggest getting a trading buddy
A trading buddy is simply another trader (or non-trader) that you can talk to throughout the trading day
I'm trading with my father and a community of traders, we're talking often, exchanging ideas on whether a setup looks great or not.
Not to talk about trades, but more as a mental coach
Someone who you can text when you're feeling emotional.
And they will tell you to get off the computer.
Sometimes we just need to hear it from someone else to actually execute
IV - Turn off your computer
Lastly, I would recommend turning off the screens.
Like literally shutting your computer/monitor off and walking away.
You need to PHYSICALLY set yourself apart from the trading scene.
Doing this will allow your brain to think about doing something else, rather than trading.
Conclusion
To summarise:
- Have a set of trading rules
- Have a hobby
- Find a trading buddy
- Physically constrain yourself to stop trading after your daily gains or losses have been reached
Comparing BoJ interventions and Anticipating Future OnesJapan's PM Kishida claims, he cannot tolerate excessive FX moves by speculation. But given the circumstances of the message, I understand 'speculation' as an excess of supply and lack of demand. Anyway, I will not argue with the correctness of his wording, political or otherwise, and will just compare the similarities.
► The interventions started after breaking 145 and 150 (151) price levels respectively.
► First, the levels were gently grazed by a candle which later becomes huge doji with above-average volumes closing below such price level. This is likely an anticipatory price action and not a part of the intervention.
► After the price breaks above the key levels for the second time, it stays there for at least an hour into either London or New York session before the intervention starts.
► Both interventions took the price down roughly 3.4% in less than 90 minutes. The low of either intervention was never breached.
► It is likely a mere coincidence, but both interventions were conducted on the 22nd and 21st day of the month. What may be less of a coincidence is that both of them took place in the latter part of the week. This suggests some planning, not just reacting to the level.
► I would argue that the trigger level of the second intervention was not 150 but 151. If that was the case, no key session has been allowed to close above a trigger level.
► Lastly, I would like to point out that the first intervention took the markets off-guard. Not the second one. Raiders, me-included, actively bought the dip not allowing the bottom to be revisited at all.
Bank of Japan is expected to continue intervening until it is forced to change its interest policies. Unfortunately for Japan with its 238 Debt to GDP ratio, higher interest rates may be extremely painful, so it will attempt to solve its large problems with a small plaster and hope for the best. In the meanwhile, Japanese people will pay a large and increasing sum for the imports that used to be cheap.
I think this is a lesson for countries that did not board a debt spiral. Don't! All debts have to be paid including the state debt. But with states, the due date may be postponed till future generations. These future generations did not approve any loans to spend on populist policies, so indebting your country is, in my opinion, a theft from future generations.
As individual traders, we didn't create these troubles for Japan and can't stop them either, so we may as well take some profits. The first interventions knocked me out of my fresh long positions, but I used the other as an entry opportunity and boarded soon after the low was created. Even if it turns out unsuccessful, I think it is worth a potential upside potential.
It is hard to predict the next levels of the intervention will take place from. Miyamoto Musashi, one of the greatest swordsmen of Japan, once said that in battle, you may do the same thing once, twice, but never three times. Hence, none of the similarities may be relevant. But it is central bankers with tied-up hands we are dealing with, so I suggest looking for some of the mentioned parameters. Namely - a pinbar, round levels such as 155, 160, 17th Thursday, 18th Friday, and the following week, and bottoms in the aftermath.
Good luck! Long live Sauron!
PSYCHOLOGY OF A TRADER | TRADING BASICS
Market psychology is the idea that the movements of a market reflect (or are influenced by) the emotional state of its participants. It is one of the main topics of behavioral economics - an interdisciplinary field that investigates the various factors that precede economic decisions.
Many believe that emotions are the main driving force behind the shifts of financial markets. And that the overall fluctuating investor sentiment is what creates the so-called psychological market cycles.
So, the sentiment is made up of the individual views and feelings of all traders and investors within a financial market. Another way to look at it is as an average of the overall feeling of the market participants.
But, just as with any group, no single opinion is completely dominant. Based on market psychology theories, an asset's price tends to change constantly in response to the overall market sentiment - which is also dynamic. Otherwise, it would be much harder to make a successful trade.
In practice, when the market goes up, it is likely due to an improving attitude and confidence among the traders. A positive market sentiment causes demand to increase and supply to decrease. In turn, the increased demand may cause an even stronger attitude. Similarly, a strong downtrend tends to create a negative sentiment that reduces demand and increases the available supply.
Scaling-in and Scaling-outHello traders,
All the below are based on my preferences, I don't give any financial recommendations and I have nothing to sell you with this article.
I'm sharing content because I see a lot of traders being/becoming broke and I don't want you to be one of them.
Scaling-in
There are times when I will scale into a position.
When the price dips into the my Moving Average pullback zone, I'll typically get 25% of my position there.
I'll then add a full position if the price dips past that MA
Don't add to winners
I wouldn't advise adding to winners
I would advise adding to losers IF it's part of your plan.
Though, most traders adding to losers end up losing more statistically.... then even I don't do it.
You should always have a stop in place and get out at your stop (or preferably use our hard exit system)
NEVER add to your position after your stop has been hit
That's not what I'm advising
I always make sure to get in a very small position early in case I miss the real entry.
It allows me to still have a decent entry if the price drops lower AND allows me to catch the move if the price decides to rip
Alright, let's talk about exits👇
Scaling-out
Your exit strategy will ultimately depend on your overall strategy
However, for ALL small accounts, I'd recommend NOT to scale.
Scaling exits should really only be for accounts that can afford to take multiple contracts (5-10+)
Otherwise, it's better off just take 100% off at your first target
And I really mean it
Remember, when your Stop-Loss hit you take 100% of a loss.
This should be obvious.... though I see plenty having multiple Take Profit levels and 1 Stop Loss level
And they wonder why they're losing.... mostly because of basic mathematics (literally additions and subtractions).
A big loss is very hard to offset with multiple partial profits across multiple trades.
If you do have a larger account, here's how I'd recommend setting up your exit strategy
IMO, it's best to only have 3 targets/exits MAX.
After 3, there's really no need to complicate your trading anymore
I'm taking the MAJORITY of my profits out at first target... 80+% of your position
Otherwise, I very often end up taking the trades, having a lot of unrealised gains but bringing back home nothing.... which is NOT ACCEPTABLE for me.
It's UNFORGIVABLE to earn a decent amount of $$ and letting everything go because I thought the trade should have gone further.
I like moving my stop to breakeven after I've taken my first partial
After you've taken your first partial, that's when you can leave 20% for runners.
You can either take the remaining runners out at your second target
or
Take half out at your second target and leave 10-15% for your last target
The larger your account size, the more targets I recommend you have
I also like moving my stops up after each target to make sure the trade doesn't go red
Why do I use this scaling strategy?
By taking the majority of my size off at my first target, it allows my strategy to keep a decent R/R rate, assuming I move stops to breakeven
It also leaves my trading more stress-free since I have less of a position on.
Allows for the trade to come back breakeven and I've already taken most off
On top of that, I have 20-30% of my position as runners in case this stock starts to explode
Doesn't happen often, but sometimes the remaining 20% ends up netting me more profit than the original 80% did.
At the end of the day, it's up to you how you want to scale
These are the methods I found most effective, depending on your account size and your strategy.
Conclusion
- As a beginner, I used to stick with 1 TP/1 SL only and that's how I brought home gains
- Once my trading account reached the 6 figures threshold, I allowed myself to have 2-3 TPs but I was taking most off the table at the first TP level and automatically moved my SL to Breakeven
- Adding to losers (aka the Dollar Cost Average method) also called martingale is a solid way for most beginners to depart from their money quickly - I'll make another article on martingale and why I think it's not for everyone
INVESTING VS TRADING VS GAMBLING | Know the Difference
Hey traders,
In this post, we will compare investing and trading with gambling.
📈Investing
Investing is the act of putting money in a financial market with the expectations of a long-term positive return.
The investing decisions are usually made using fundamental analysis.
The main goal of an investor is to predict the long-term market trends and benefit on them.
Professional investing also involves assets allocation and diversification aimed to hedge potential risks.
💱Trading
Trading is the process of selling and buying financial instruments expecting a short-term (occasionally, mid-term) profit.
The trading decisions are usually based on technical and fundamentals analysis.
The goal of a trader is to predict local price fluctuations and catch them.
Professional trading implies strict, rule-based actions following a trading plan.
🎰Gambling
Gambling is the act of betting on a specific event with the expectations of winning some value.
Being completely luck-based, gambling usually involves get rich quick schemes and pursuit of easy money.
What differs professional trading and investing from gambling is the fact that professional trading / investing involves objective analysis and strict planning, while gambling remains purely intuition based.
Unfortunately, most of the market participants pretend that they trade and invest professionally while acting as gamblers in fact.
Remember that long-term, consistent profits can be achieved only with the plan. Your intuition may bring some short-term profits, but in a long-run it will most likely lead you to a bankruptcy.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Pinbar Forex Trading SystemPinbar Forex Trading System — a popular strategy for entering and exiting positions that is based on the particular candlestick pattern and the following price action. The Pinbar (also known as "Pin-bar" or "Pin bar") pattern was first introduced by Martin Pring in his Pring on Price Patterns.
Features
-Conservative strategy offers low-risk high-yield opportunities.
-No-loss rate is pretty high if break-even is applied.
-Rare occurrence.
-Timing is critical.
-Support/resistance is difficult to formalize.
Strategy Set-Up
Any currency pair and timeframe should work, but longer-term timeframes (such as H4, D1 and W1) should work better.
Pattern consists of three bars: the left eye, nose and right eye. The left eye should be a bar up for the bearish Pinbar pattern or a bar down for bullish pattern. Nose bar should open and close inside left eye, but its high (or low, for the bullish set-up) should protrude much farther than left eye's high (or low). Both nose bar's open and close should be located in the bottom (top, for the bullish set-up) 1/4 of the bar. The right eye is where the trading happens.
An additional condition for the good pattern set-up is the strong support/resistance level formed either behind the eyes or near the point of the nose. The stronger are the support/resistance levels you incorporate into this pattern, the more accurate it will be.
Entry Conditions
Aggressive entry option is to enter a position when in the right eye price retreats behind the left eye's close level.
Conservative entry point is below (above for bullish set-up) the nose bar.
Exit Conditions
Conservative stop-loss can be set behind the nearest support/resistance level behind the eyes. A less conservative approach would be to set stop-loss to immediately behind the nose bar point (in this case, your reward/risk ratio may suffer).
Conservative take-profit can be set immediately after the left eye low (high for the bullish set-up). Aggressive take-profit level may be placed farther — to the next strong support (resistance for bullish positions) level.
Big Bank Imbalance Strategy (Go With The Flow) Example on 1 hour EurChf Chart for Friday ( sell trade, but can do on buy trade too)… its Friday: Don't be greedy).
Note the following:
1) Big Banks selling (note large 1 hour candlesticks- on charts)- only people that can do that are big banks and/or institutions (not retail traders).
2) Two areas of sell imbalance (they must be filled with buy either today or in the near future). In all probable's, I would side with today and big banks are just selling to buy back later today - because the big banks do not want many imbalances when Forex is closed (and/or the weekend)
3) Look for a higher bullish LOW and higher CLOSE candlestick for your reason to enter into a long and/or setting up buy trade soon.
4) After the #3 above has happen (wait patiently)- why? because that candle happened at 3:00 a.m. and/or after Tokyo closed and before NY session opened.
London session does three more hours of accumulation 1 hour candles (see large bottom & top wicks- both buying and selling pressure)- so all big banks and institutions are happy with the current price at this moment.
5) When NY session opens, what happens? Big banks and institutions are buying (large candles)- your sign to by was actually the 1hour sell candlestick (red) before the large blue candlestick happened. Why? because the big banks and/or institutions are trying to tell you to sell, but you being smart did not fall for that one, right? You said above price action are two areas of sell imbalance that I except to be fill today, so I will plan to buy when that pa reverses and goes north and/or blue above that last red candlestick.
*On Chart related to its Friday & both scalpers and/or day traders should not be holding over the weekend. Why? because Forex is closed and when Forex starts back up- their could be small or large GAPS which take you out, which you have zero control over. Trading is 100% on you, your decisions only- control as much as you can- do not give your broker and/or big banks or institutions any more control then they already have in the Forex world.
If you are scalping and/or day trading these Big Bank imbalance strategy should be 1:1 or: 1:2 risk reward maximum. You can trade this of course buy or sell on pairs. You need to always use risk management. This trade would have seen you doing a 1:1 RR with 17 pip stop vs 17 pip target. Trading is not about pips that you make, but the risk that you take= PER TRADE.
How Does Forex Market Work?How does Forex market work?
As a trader, you decide if you would like to buy or sell. The broker finds someone who would like to do the opposite and they introduce the two of you. The broker then takes a small cut (spread) of the transaction price for arranging the connection. Foreign exchange is largest liquid market in world, but what does that mean? Has a daily roll over of 6.6 trillion dollars. It means that the broker can always find "the other side" very easily and quickly. This is good if you want to enter a trade immediately and great if you wan to get out of a trade very quickly.
Best thing about Forex is:
Markets which are not liquid, or have low trading volume, can be difficult to trade. Imagine you were in a losing trade and you wanted to get out of it. If the broker can't find "the other side" then you are stuck! That will not happen when trading FX. There is always someone on the other side- a major benefit.
Forex exchange is essentially for international business. Forex markets include governments, businesses & investors. Forex, also known as foreign exchange or FX trading, is the conversion of one currency into another. It is one of the most actively traded markets in the world, with an average daily trading volume of $6.6 trillion. Forex, or foreign exchange, can be explained as a network of buyers and sellers, who transfer currency between each other at an agreed price. It is the means by which individuals, companies and central banks convert one currency into another – if you have ever travelled abroad, then it is likely you have made a forex transaction. While a lot of foreign exchange is done for practical purposes, vast majority of currency conversion is undertaken with the aim of earning a profit. The amount of currency converted every day can make price movements of some currencies extremely volatile. It is this volatility that can make forex so attractive to traders: bringing about a greater chance of high profits, while also increasing the risk.
Unlike shares or commodities, forex trading does not take place on exchanges but directly between two parties, in an over-the-counter (OTC) market. The forex market is run by a global network of banks, spread across four major forex trading centers in different time zones: London, New York, Sydney and Tokyo. Because there is no central location, you can trade forex 24 hours a day. Most traders speculating on forex prices will not plan to take delivery of the currency itself; instead they make exchange rate predictions to take advantage of price movements in the market.
What moves Forex markets?
The forex market is made up of currencies from all over the world, which can make exchange rate predictions difficult as there are many factors that could contribute to price movements. However, like most financial markets, forex is primarily driven by the forces of supply and demand, and it is important to gain an understanding of the influences that drives price fluctuations here. Central banks, News reports, Market sentiment, Economic data, Credit ratings.
WHY 95% OF TRADERS DO NOT SUCCEED?
The evidence suggests that only a very small proportion of day traders makes money year over year.
There are certain patterns which may separate profitable traders from those who ultimately lose money. And indeed, there is one particular mistake that in our experience gets repeated time and time again. What is the single most important mistake that led to traders losing money?
Here is a hint – it has to do with how we as humans relate to winning and losing.
Our own human psychology makes it difficult to navigate financial markets, which are filled with uncertainty and risk, and as a result the most common mistakes traders make have to do with poor risk management strategies.
Traders are often correct on the direction of a market, but where the problem lies is in how much profit is made when they are right versus how much they lose when wrong.
Bottom line, traders tend to make less on winning trades than they lose on losing trades.
Humans aren’t machines, and working against our natural biases requires effort. Once you have a trading plan that uses a proper reward/risk ratio, the next challenge is to stick to the plan. Remember, it is natural for humans to want to hold on to losses and take profits early, but it makes for bad trading. We must overcome this natural tendency and remove our emotions from trading.
That will help you to be a consistently profitable trader.
WHY THE RICH GET RICHER
The general trend, in a capitalist economy governed by private property, would be for the rich to get richer—for inequality to increase steadily over time. That had been true in the initial stages of industrialization and remains the fact nowadays.
One reason: The wealthiest 1 percent put three-quarters of their savings into investment assets. By contrast, the middle class had 63 percent of their assets tied up in their homes, with home equity accounting for about a third since they have large mortgage debt.
The differences reflect the greater share of high-yield investment assets like stocks in the portfolios of the rich and the greater share of housing in the portfolio of the middle class.
Of course, the rich can afford to lose more—so they can take more risks and make more when times are good. But the lesson is clear: the wealth gap is caused in large part by the investment gap.
Some other psychological reasons should be considered as well, they are nicely reflected on the chart above, so spend some time to examine that.
10 things to remember about bear markets, volatility, and panicTrading & investing is not easy. If it were, everyone would be rich.
One of the most difficult moments for all traders, and especially investors, is when markets are abnormally bearish, trending downward or in a direction that goes against their positions. Adding to that difficulty is when volatility is rising and when uncertainty is high. These events have occurred throughout market history and should be expected. Every trader or investor should remember a simple truth: markets will go against you at some point. Be prepared.
Learning to trade or invest in bearish and volatile markets requires great skill, experience, and composure. The last 12 months has demonstrated that. Stocks, bonds, forex, crypto, and futures have seen heightened volatility over the last 12 months. So what should we do? What now?
Let's revisit the basics - the skills, traits, and mindset that are required to survive these moments.
1. Plan ahead 🗺
Plan your trade, trade your plan. Every trade, every investment, should have an underlying plan. Write out the basic questions before you buy or sell. For example, what is your desired entry price? What is your desired exit price? What is your stop loss? How much money are you risking? Why are you making this trade or investment in the first place? In times of volatility, these questions matter more than ever. Get back to the basics.
2. Don't rush 🧘♂️
Volatility, and especially market panic, cause people to make quick reactions. The pressure, the fast price action, often forces people to act without a moment to revisit their original plan. Don't do this! Take your time. Stay composed and deal with the hand you have been dealt.
3. Be patient with entries 🎯
Many traders & investors speak of buying dips, but this phrase does explain the steps required. You don't buy dips without a plan. You plan out your strategy, you wait for the perfect entry, and you let the market come to you. When the market is in a downtrend, and volatility is high, it is paramount that you remain patient, waiting for the perfect entry. Use limit orders wisely.
4. Know your timeframe ⏰
Are you trading for one day? One month? Or 5 years? These basic questions will remind you of what you're trying to accomplish and how rushed or patient you should really be. They will also remind you about the chart you should be looking at, whether you should be zoomed in to a 30-minute chart or zoomed out to a weekly chart, showing years of price histort.
5. Have an exit strategy 🚨
An exit strategy means that no matter what happens, you know where your stop loss is and you know where your profit target is. No matter what happens, up or down or sideways, you have an exit plan. Do not leave any entry or exit up to chance. Create your exit strategy before you place the trade and follow it.
6. Tighten position size 💪
Added volatility and uncertainty needs to be factored into your game plan before it begins in the first place. However, many new investors and traders forget to do this. If that's you, it's time to adjust your strategy, your plan, for larger trading ranges, volatility. The year-long trends that defined a previous market are now less valid.
7. Zoom out for historical context 🔎
Zoom out on your charts. Then keep zooming out. And now zoom out some more. Circle the latest candle, line or price movement and let it serve as a reminder about where price is today vs. where it came from. There's a saying: when in doubt, zoom out. Do not to get lost in the moment, looking only at the day or week, but instead go research the entire history of price. Learn about what has happened in the past.
8. Cash is a position 💸
Want to dollar cost average into a trade? Want to buy more? Want to trade more? You need cash to do that. There is comfort in being able to participate in the volatility whenever you want. Cash is a position and guarantees this.
9. Avoid panic, FUD, and FOMO 😳
When emotions are running high, some of the biggest psychological mistakes can occur. FUD stands for fear, uncertainty, and doom. FOMO stands for fear of missing out. These are two common emotions in crashing markets. On one hand, everyone thinks the end is near and then on the other hand every little up move is the next bull run. Do not let these emotions take you.
10. Take a break 😀
Sometimes it helps to step away. Log out, close your apps, get outside and get some exercise. Come back to the markets when you're ready. Your mind will also be well rested now.
We hope you enjoyed this post and we hope it helps you as you navigate the markets.
Please feel free to write any additional tips or pieces of advice in the comments section below!
5 Elements of a Smart Trade Plan
Find out why you should have a trade plan—and the five elements that may help you put it to work successfully.
Element 1: Your time horizon
How long do you plan to hold a position? This will depend on your trading strategy. Generally, traders fit into one of three categories:
Single-session traders are very active and look to gain from small price variations over very short time periods (minutes or hours) throughout the trading day.
Swing traders target trades that can be completed in a few days to a few weeks.
Position traders seek larger gains and recognize that it often takes longer than a few weeks to achieve them.
Element 2: Your entry strategy
Look for entry signals—for instance, divergences from trend lines and support levels—to help you place your trades. The signals you employ and the orders you use to make good on them hinge on your trading style and preferences.
Element 3: Your exit plan
When it comes to an exit strategy, plan for two types of trades: those that go in your favor and those that don’t. You might be tempted to let favorable trades run, but don’t ignore opportunities to take some profits.
Element 4: Your position size
Trading is risky. A good trade plan establishes ground rules for how much you’re willing to risk on any single trade. Say, for example, you don’t want to risk losing more than 2%–3% of your account on a single trade. You could consider exercising portion control, or sizing positions, to fit your budget.
Element 5: Your trade performance
Look over your trading history to calculate your theoretical trade expectancy, meaning your average gain (or loss) per trade. You start by determining the percentage of your trades that have been profitable versus those that haven’t. This is known as your win/loss ratio.
Understanding what goes into a smart trade plan is the first step to prepare you for your next trade.
Exit Strategies to Consider on Each Trade: a Complete GuideEnter, monitor, and exit are three vital steps to follow while trading. While most traders focus on how and when they can enter a particular setup, they pay less attention to their exit strategy. Today, we are gonna look into some popular exit strategies that we utilise in our personal trading.
1) Breakeven closure
When the price is moving in our direction and is already a few key zones away from the entry zone, we make the trade risk-free by moving the Stop Loss level to the price of entry.
If the Stop Loss gets hit, we exit the trade with neither a gain nor a loss.
2) Manual Closure
In the process of monitoring, if the price does not play out according to our plan, we tend to make quick decision and exit the trade earlier than planned.
3) Target Profit
We set a Take Profit (TP) order that closes the transaction as soon as it gets triggered.
4) Stop Loss
We set a Stop Loss (SL) order that closes the transaction as soon as it gets triggered.
🌱Weekly quote: We know what we're doing wrong🌱🟢For many of us, our trading accounts are our cluttered homes. What we desperately need is to find our inner quiet; review our trades and trading statistics in detail and truly experience the horror of betraying our potential; and fully appreciate what we do well and embrace it with gratitude. Out of that energized awareness, we can replace the clutter with what is meaningful.
Our great enemy is routine. Many times, we know what we're doing wrong, but we keep making the same mistakes. Indeed, that is the way of life's curriculum. If we fail to learn from the first lesson, we get a second and a third and a fourth: one painful opportunity after another to commit to a different path. Is that failure, or is that something to be grateful for: a curriculum that is trying, trying, trying to teach us the lessons we need to learn to be successful?
🟢We've seen that gratitude is an essential component of psychological well-being. The grateful trader is not self-focused, absorbed in how much money they could/should make. The grateful trader is thankful for the opportunities coming their way. When we look heavenward with thanks for what we've accomplished, there is an essential humility to our perspective. It's not just about us. It's not just about profits and losses.
A great metric in evaluating your trading journal is to count the number of frustrated statements versus the number of grateful ones. A great metric in evaluating other traders is to count the number of self-aggrandizing statements with the number of humble, grateful ones.
🟢If losses are opportunities to learn and improve, we can sustain a grateful mindset even in times of adversity. A humble mindset is one looking to learn. A grateful mindset appreciates every opportunity to grow.
A life perspective that instills and strengthens humility grounds us in the awareness that there is always something more important than me. There is always something more significant than what is simply happening here and now. We cannot succeed in trading--or any life endeavor--if it becomes our end-all and be-all. Once trading and P/L are placed on a pedestal, they control us and our experience. And that is precisely what interferes with profitability!
It's great to correct your mistakes, but it's in your shining successes that you can find your path to fulfillment--and your future in markets. Hidden in your winning trades may be the key to your development as a trader.
🟢 So many developing traders look for one edge after another, one market after another, one trading style after another--all in a frantic search for success. The reality is that our best trading is hiding in plain sight, when we explore what we're trading and how we're trading it when we're most fulfilled and successful.
Brett Steenbarger, Trading Psychology
🟢TRADING HACKS: A MIX OF TRADING ADVICE, ROUTINE, GOOD HABITS🟢When you open your charts in the beginning of the day, don't rush into first trade you see.
Step back for a little while, and check in with your emotions. If you want to trade cause you didn't have a trade in a while, or you're bored, or you want to make your money back, or if you just want to make money and now you "know the market will go up (down)" - these all are signs of emotional imbalance. if you feel like this, it's better just to make a pause. Yes, it can be hard to do it by the way, but you need to make it through your will effort.
So, instead of putting a trade right away, go through your multitimeframe analysis, mark up the zones and set your alerts for zones you really like. more on this here
While you're waiting for alerts to go off, you can do a lot of useful things for your trading.
first of all, go through your checklist or trading plan, or a journal, and remind yourself how your best, high-quality setups look like.
Now go back to previous week or two, and just look in hindsight for your highquality patterns, whatever strategy you use. See how market developed and find entry points which will be in line with your rules. You can even make a step further and journal these hindsight trades in a separate journal (I call it mark ups, or "missed trades"). This simple action will train your pattern recognition skills and also develop a habit of working with a journal. In the future you'll come back to these trades for reference of how your best setups can look like.
Now, if the alert is still not activated, do some backtesting, 5-10 trade would be enough, but also journal these trades.
Doing this, you're already few steps ahead of your competitors become not many people are willing to put such kind of effort in their trading.
Well done, and now it's time to go and check how the market is developing. More on building the routing and good habits you can read in this series of posts
The Evolution of a Trader | 3 Milestones 📈
Hey traders,
In this educational article, we will discuss 3 stages of the evolution of a trader.
Stage 1 - Unprofitable trader 😞
The unprofitable trader has very typical characteristics:
-total absence of trading skills
Most of the time, people open a live account simply after completing some beginners course like on babypips website.
Being sure that the obtained knowledge are completely enough to start trading, they quickly face the tough reality.
-no trading plan
Having just basic knowledge, of course, they do not have a trading plan. Why the hell to have it if everything is so simple?!
All their actions on the market is just gambling. They open the positions randomly most of the time, simply relying on intuition.
-poor risk management
In 99% percent of the time, the unprofitable trader does not even think about risk management. The position sizing, stop placement and target selection are completely neglected.
Trading performance of the unprofitable traders is characterized by small wins and substantial losses and negatively trending equity.
Stage 2 - Boom and bust trader 😶
Usually, traders reach boom and bust stage after 1-2 years of unprofitable trading. At some moment, winning trades start to compensate losing trades, brining non-trending equity.
Such traders have very common traits:
-not polished trading plan
Being unprofitable for so long, traders start to realize the significance of a trading plan.
Sticking to the set of rules, they notice positive changes in their trading performance.
However, trading plan requires to be polished and modified. It takes many years for a trader to identify all its drawbacks before it starts bringing net profits.
-lack of confidence
When one starts following a trading system, confidence plays a substantial role.
The fact is that even the best trading strategy in the world occasionally produces negative results. In order to not give up and keep following such a system, one needs to build trust in that.
The confidence that after a series of losing trades, the strategy will manage to recover.
Such a trust can be built after many years of trading that strategy.
Stage 3 - Profitable trader ☺️
That is the final destination.
After many years of a struggling trading, one finally sees positively-trending equity. Winning trades start to outperform losing ones, leading to consistent account growth.
Profitable trader is characterized by iron discipline, confidence and consistency.
He knows what he is trading, when and why. His trading plan is polished, he fully controls his emotions.
He never stops learning and constantly develops his strategy.
Knowing the 3 stages of the evolution of a trader, one can easily identify at what stage he currently is. That will help to identify the things to be focused on to move to the next stage.
At what stages are you at the moment?
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
WHAT IS LEVERAGE IN FOREX?
“Leverage” means using a small amount of your own money in order to control a much larger amount of money. Typically, you borrow the remaining amount through your broker.
For example, say you want to control a $50,000 position. Your broker might put aside $500 of your own money and borrow the remainder. You now have control over the $50,000 with just $500 from your own account, so your leverage ratio is 100:1.
Now, let’s say the $50,000 investment rises by $500, so the full position is now worth $50,500. If you were liable for the full $50,000 (representing a 1:1 ratio), this is only a 1% return on your investment. However, since you only put in $500 of your own capital, the $500 increase represents a 100% return on your investment – that’s way more exciting!
Now, it’s important to understand that this cuts both ways. If you lost $500 instead of gaining $500, you would see a -100% return on your investment. Yikes! If you had a 1:1 ratio and put in the full $50,000 you would only see a -1% return.
How Much Can You Leverage in Forex?
Before you open an account with a broker, you’ll want to check the maximum leverage ratio that you’ll be able to use. The higher the ratio, the bigger your potential gains or losses. Brokers will usually offer 50:1, 100:1, 200:1, or 400:1 ratios.
A typical ratio on a standard lot account is 100:1, and a mini lot account will often offer a 200:1 ratio. If you start trading at 400:1, be wary of using small deposits to control large capital, as these can disappear quickly with the volatility of large sums. Lower leverage keeps you safer from mistakes, while higher leverage could bring in higher rewards.
How Leverage Affects Your Trading ✅
As we’ve seen, leverage is a powerful tool that can help you win big in the forex market. You can use less capital to control greater positions, giving you flexibility and amplifying your profits. However, it can just as easily amplify your losses.
At very high levels, leverage starts to damage your odds of success. Transaction costs represent a higher percentage of your margin the greater your position is. This means that transaction costs already put you at a disadvantage with excessively high leverage.
Candlestick Rejection Strategy!
What it is?
Candlestick rejection strategy is a pure price action swing trading strategy. It makes use of the concept of price rejection or candlestick rejection patterns to invalidate counter-trend momentum for a trade continuation.
By applying such candlestick rejection strategy onto swing trading, it allows trades to capture spots at which market prices are at rest during retracements before rejoining back the existing dominant trend.
How to use?
Some trade recommendation for such candlestick rejection strategy is to use it as a candlestick rejection pattern on counter-trend moves. This means that we pick candlestick rejection pattern only for the sake of searching for breakout continuation with the dominant trend at counter trend waves.Entry can be made after the breakout occurs at the high or low of The Mother Bar and stop loss order can be placed at the opposing breakout side's high or low.
Further trade help can also be incorporated to help increase the trade's probability of success. For instance, it can be used together with other technical tools such as dynamic moving averages and Fibonacci retracement tool. Some may even want to consolidate other trading strategies to further increase trade’s probability of success.
Thank you for reading, we hope you enjoyed our educational effort!