Swing-Trading: Real-Time Signals ✅Our swing-trading strategy is based on the timeless and success proven strategies developed by stock market legends like Jesse Livermore, William o' Neil and Mark Minervini - 3x US investing Champion 🍾🍾🍾
In this video, I go through the details of our swing-trading strategy and explain how to get free access to Real-Time-Trading signals.
Trading Plan
What Are The Pros And Cons of Intraday vs Swing TradingHello traders,
There is not such a good or bad timeframe.
Like cooking, everything depends on how you use the ingredients for your meals.
Intraday timeframes
Pros
Earlier entries
Earlier exits => losers are smaller compared to losers with SWING trades
You make your daily goals earlier
With Intraday trading, we're not impacted by contracts expiration, rollover, over-weekend, overnight fees
It's rarely boring (especially with indices trading)
Leverage isn't needed
Perfect for beginners or small capital
Cons
More in/out entries => you have to enter, exit, enter, exit until the real move happen
You have to be more reactive and accurate when taking a position or exiting.
Swing timeframes
Pros
More time to react and prepare
We don't need to be too accurate with our entries and exits
You're less impacted by news/events/rumours/tweets - They have a real visible impact on intraday but generally don't change a thing for the swing trend
Cons
Bigger drawdown by design
Forces to hold trades over multiple days/weeks.
In a range, we pay a lot in funding/rollover fees before the real move happens.
Being double digits percent down because of fees isn't pleasant.
Big capital required to afford to lose a few percentages sometimes with those trading fees
1 click takes 5 seconds.
Then you wait and wait and wait and wait, and then look on Twitter for ideas to invalidate your entries.
When your favorite guru shares a contrary setup, you follow his/her call and wreck yourself.
You really need patience with SWING trades.
If the patience for you is an issue, I'd stick with Intraday.
Have a great day
Dave
HOW TO USE TECHNICAL INDICATORS TO MAKE PROFITS IN TRADING
Always combine technical analysis with fundamental analysis
Successful traders always combine the two types of analysis. This is because technical analysis tends to focus on the past events and fundamental analysis focuses on the present and future issues.
In addition, there are certain situations where technical analysis will not provide adequate solutions. For instance, technical indicators are not programmed to predict the outcome.
In such situations, it is important to rely on fundamental analysis and avoid the market because no one knows the exact number and how the market will react.
Understand the indicators
It is also important to understand the indicators to use. Different one have different ways of analysis.
It is important for you to take time to learn these indicators and how they should set up. There are many learning materials which one can use to learn how the indicators work.
I recommend that you take at least 2 months to learn the indicators using a demo account before using real money.
Use Few Indicators
As stated before, many traders make the sad mistake of using very many indicators at a go. Always remember that two is a company, three is a crowd.
Traders who use more than two indicators at a go make mistakes because of poor visibility and poor market data interpretation.
Therefore, I recommend that you use at most 2 indicators per trade.
Patience
In day trading, patience is an important aspect without which no trader can make it. In fact, some indicators are usually require more time before their predictions can come true.
Following these tips, your indicator-trading will go to the next level.
Do you agree with all these tips?
Hey traders, let me know what subject do you want to dive in in the next post?
Do That BEFORE You Start REAL ACCOUNT Trading
Here is the list of thing that you should learn in advance before you start trading on a real account.
1) Open a demo (practice) account and learn to execute trades without making errors
2) Study the methods of great traders and financial minds throughout history - Jesse Livermore, W D Gann, Charles Dow/Dow theory, Paul Tudor Jones,Richard Wyckoff.
Learn their methods and employ them. Learn their mistakes and avoid them.
3) Focus on learning, not winning. Forget about money and profits. Think about developing a winning strategy and a winning trading mindset. Always be open-minded. Observe. Be flexible.
4) I recommend reading the following books. These books will help you to start to think like a trader and realize what you are getting yourself into:
a) "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" by Edwin Lefevre
b) "Art of War" by Sun Tzu (Not a trading book but an old book on rules of war and how to protect yourself from being outsmarted and defeated by your enemies)
c) "The Trading Methodologies of W.D. Gann" by Hima Reddy
d) "Time Compression Trading: Exploiting Multiple Time Frames in Zero Sum Markets" by Jason Alan Jankovsky
e) "Trading in the Zone: Master the Market with Confidence, Discipline and a Winning Attitude" by Mark Douglas
5) Watch YouTube videos. Absorb all the info you can as the more you know, the more the pieces of the puzzle fit together later on. You can learn the basics of trading on your own and then when you are ready to take your trading to the next level.
To win the game, you need to develop your thinking and how you participate in the game. You are in a market trading against professional traders. The beginning traders in the market are not your competition-they are incidental. You need to trade with the professional traders who run the market.
I wish you luck on a battle field!
Please, like this post and subscribe to our tradingview page!👍
TradingView & Trend-TemplateIn this video I explain how to integrate Minervini' Trend-Template into your daily stock screening routine.
This concept can be applied to all other securities including Commodities, FOREX and Cryptos.
The links to other relevant tutorials in this context (Stage-Analysis and Trend-Template criteria) are shown below.
10 Important Trading LessonsWhat are most useful trading tips you have heard so far?
Today, I am going to share with you 10 important trading lessons which market taught me after years of experience and I wish these tips to help you in your future trades :
1. We should Only do trading whenever we can obey all the following items or we had better leave trading forever.
2. Never enter into a stressful trade. This means you have to set you stop loss and calculate you target before executing a trade and possible loss should be small enough that you can tolerate.
3. If you feel to need to sit behind your laptop or PC to monitor and check your trade after opening a position, you are entering into a wrong one !. Do not open it.
4. Doing an analysis in relax and comfortable condition is necessary before any trade. Opening a position without " an already done analysis " is a great mistake ! .
5. Running an immediate analysis when market has strong momentum and trading based on that is very risky. Try to avoid such trades.
6. Never fade the gain of a good trade with a loss of a bad one. Good here means trading based on pre-defined strategy and bad means throwing it away .
7. Using leverages can be dangerous as much as it can be fascinating.
8. Only use leverages when all elements of your trading strategy are present.
9. Stick to your Stop loss and Take profit which you set and calculated outside of any market excitation.
10. Being optimistic and over pessimistic is forbidden. Trading is all about being realistic.
please share your own experiences as comments. I am eager to learn from you my friends.
Good luck.
What is really up with the Funded Programs?Before we go any further, I want to state that
1) This post is NOT PROMOTING ANY prop firms/funded trader programs,
2) I do not hate or have anything against any prop firms/funded trader programs, I am just sharing my understanding from what I have read and experienced, and
3) Info here is not complete. If you choose to embark on any programs, please make sure you do your own due diligence.
Traditional Prop Firm
Typically refers to a group of traders that focus on buying and selling financial assets with the firm’s capital. The trader uses that firm's money to trade and in exchange receives a small wage and a large percentage of the profits. In practice, proprietary trading firms provide the capital, proprietary technology, training, coaching, and mentoring for you to become an elite trader.
Funded Programs
There has been an ever-increasing number of funded trader programs, marketing to retail traders about the huge profit-sharing potential (75-90%) when they become "a funded trader." And all that is required is paying for and passing an evaluation/testing period. You would pay anywhere from $84 to $184 for a $10,000 account and it could go as high as you want (almost)
A trader in the evaluation/testing period would have
- Profit target of 8-10% in phase 1 (typically 30 days)
- Profit target of 5% in phase 2 (typically 60 days)
- Daily drawdown of no more than 5%
- Overall drawdown of no more than 10-12%
From my experience coaching retail traders, newbie or average trader has an account size of no more than $10,000. This makes the idea of being funded to trade become really attractive, limiting the downside while almost maximizing the potential. However, there has also been a lot of negativity about these funded programs;
- the evaluation and actual trading accounts are demo accounts
- the company makes more money from traders failing than from profitable traders
- some traders claim to have never received their payouts
Are funded programs scams?
Again, I have not evaluated ALL funded programs to say this, but probably not. (Do your own due diligence!)
Companies running funded programs are likely just deploying a good business model, addressing a pain that most retail traders have (funding their account) and filling that gap.
Should you jump into a funded program?
There is a lot more information (more than discussed above) that needs to be considered before you jump in. A brief checklist:
1) Do you have a profitable trading strategy to deploy? ( if you don't have a profitable strategy, keep reading, learning & testing )
2) Have you used it for at least a year? ( avoid using funded programs as a testing ground, it can get costly! do it on a demo or even a $1,000 account first )
3) Does the strategy meet the max drawdown conditions? ( 5% a day, 10% total? For example, a martingale strategy is not likely to work )
4) How likely are you to bend your trading rules? ( rules set by the programs are set in stone, a breach even by the slightest and you would have failed )
5) Is it the right time to start? ( are markets in consolidation, on a holiday period, or super volatile with no clear trend )
Remember that the average annualized return of the S&P500 is 11.88% (1957 to 2021). Trying to make 8-10% in 30 days and then 5% in 60 days just to pass, tends to put the trader under a lot of stress. How do you perform under significant pressure?
What are your views of the funded programs? Share it with me in the comments
I have never thought much about the funded programs. But recently have been considering giving it a shot and live-streaming the trading process daily. Would you join me on the stream?
Stay tuned, it might just happen.
17 Money Rules Everyone Should KnowHello traders,
All the below are based on my preferences, I don't give any financial recommendations and I have nothing to sell you with this article.
I'm sharing content because I see a lot of traders being/becoming broke and I don't want you to be one of them.
1. Pay yourself first
As soon as you get paid, put money into savings.
Automating this is even better.
2. Keep a 6 months emergency fund
If you have multiple streams of income, you can go as low as 3 months.
If starting out on your own, you could need as much as 12 months.
3. Budget using the 50/30/20 rule
50% for needs
30% for wants
20% towards saving/retiring
4. Divide your bonus into thirds
1/3 for fun
1/3 for retirement
1/3 for debt paydown
5. Put a large percentage of your raised into your savings
This helps avoid lifestyle inflation and moves up your retirement date.
6. Avoid high-interest debt
If you have it, use the snowball or avalanche method to pay it off
7. US only: Always take an employer 401K match
Many employers match a percentage of your paycheck.
This money gets an immediate 100% return.
Turning this down is the same thing as turning down ra raise.
8. Your home payment
Mortage + interest + insurance should cost less than 25% of your monthly income
9. When buying a car, use the 20/4/10 rule
20% down
4 years loan
< 10% of your monthly income
10. Save at least 15% of your monthly income for retirement
11. The stock market has a long-term average return of 10%
So, when the CPI inflation of your country is 10%, you're actually at breakeven in term of buying power
12. The rule of 72
Example: The stock market returns 10%, so 72/10 = 7.2 years to double your money
13. The 4% rule
This rule says you can safely withdraw 4% of your starting investment balance each year (adjust for inflation in subsequent years) and not run out of money.
14. The wealth ratio
Take what your spend divided by your income
If it's below 10%, you're "wealthy" because you can live off 10% of your income
15. Have at least 5 times your gross salary in term life insurance
16. Before spending money
Wait 24 hours and ask: do I still want it? If you do, go and buy it.
This will save you from a lot of impulse purchases
17. Value time over money and experience over things
I'll keep bringing a few articles like this every week because it helps me clarifying my thoughts AND giving back to the community makes me feel good about myself somehow :)
Thank you for reading
Dave
How to pick the best Cryptos ??? 😎JS-TechTrading Masterclass
How to pick the Best Cryptos??
The trend is your friend. This is a very old but true quote.
Why is that?
• The vast majority of big winning cryptos and other securities made the largest portion of their gain in a Stage 2 uptrend
• Evidence that institutions are buying
• Increase probability of success
• Know what to expect under specific conditions – point of reference
Your goal is not to buy at the lowest price – It’s to buy at the right price!
Every crypto and other security go through the same maturation cycle - it starts at stage 1 and ends at stage 4 as shown in the chart.
Stage One – Neglect Phase – Consolidation
Stage Two – Advancing Phase – Accumulation
Stage Three – Topping Phase – Distribution
Stage Four – Declining Phase – Capitulation
Our JS-TechTrading strategy focuses on identifying cryptos and other securities in stage 2 uptrends for our LONG-strategies, and stage 4 downtrends for our SHORT-strategies.
By doing that, we create an edge over long-term investors and less proficient traders. By focusing on cryptos and other securities in a stage 2 uptrend (LONG-strategies), and focusing on cryptos and other securities in a stage 4 downtrend (SHORT-strategies) we avoid losing money or breaking even over a long period of time and we are fully invested when cryptos and other securities are in a confirmed up-/downtrend so that we can accumulate money within the shortest period of time.
Example Bitcoin:
But how can we use technical chart analysis can be used to identify cryptos and other securities in a stage 2 uptrend, and in a stage 4 downtrend?
🍾🍾 3x US investment champion Mark Minervini 🍾🍾 developed the so-called Trend-Template which can be used to screen for cryptos and other securities in confirmed up- and downtrends.
TradingView provides all of the relevant tools to automate this screening process. ✌️✌️ The following section summarizes the technical characteristics which must be met so that a stage 2 uptrend for a stock can be confirmed:
Trend-Template to confirm a STAGE 2 Uptrend
1. Stock price is above both the 150-day (30-week) and the 200-day (40-week) moving average price lines.
2. The 150-day moving average is above the 200-day moving average.
3. The 200-day moving average line is trending up for at least 1-month (preferably 4-5 months minimum).
4. The 50-day (10-week moving average) is above both the 150-day and the 200-day moving averages.
5. The current stock price is at least 25% above its 52-week low. (Many of the best selections will be 100%, 300% or even greater above their 52-week low before they emerge from a sound consolidation period and mount a large-scale advance).
6. The current stock price is within at least 25% of its 52-week high (the closer to a new high the better).
7. Current price is trading above the 50-day moving average (exception “Low Cheat” setups
Trend-Template to confirm a STAGE 4 Downtrend
The same logic applies here:
1. Stock price is below both the 150-day (30-week) and the 200-day (40-week) moving average price lines.
2. The 150-day moving average is below the 200-day moving average.
3. The 200-day moving average line is trending down for at least 1-month (preferably 4-5 months minimum).
4. The 50-day (10-week moving average) is below both the 150-day and the 200-day moving averages.
5. The current stock price is at least 25% below its 52-week high.
6. The current stock price is within at least 25% of its 52-week low (the closer to a new low the better).
7. Current price is trading below the 50-day moving average.
We at JS-TechTrading only consider cryptos and other securities for our watchlists which are meeting all characteristics of Minervini's trend-template. This screening process in itself provides us with a significant competitive edge versus most other traders are doing.
In the next tutorials, I will explain how automated trading robots can be applied to cryptos and other securities on our watchlists.
Gambler's Vision VS Pro Trader's Vision 👁
Hey traders,
In this article, we will discuss the perception of trading by individuals.
We will compare the vision of a professional trader and a beginner.
The fact is, that most of the people perceive trading performance incorrectly. There is a common fallacy among them that win rate is the only true indicator of the efficiency of a trading strategy.
Moreover, newbies are searching for a strategy producing close to 100% accuracy.
Such a mindset determines their expectations.
Especially it feels, when I share a wrong forecast in my channel.
It immediately triggers resentment and negative reactions.
Talking to these people personally and asking them about the reasons of their indignation, the common answer is: "If you are a pro, you can not be wrong".
The truth is that the reality is absolutely different. Opening any position or making a forecast, a pro trader always realizes that there is no guarantee that the market will act as predicted. Pro trader admits that he deals with probabilities, and he is ready to take losses. He realizes that he may have negative trading days, even weeks and months, but at the end of the day his overall performance will be positive.
Remember, that your success in trading is determined by your expectations and perception. Admit the reality of trading, set correct goals, and you will take losses more easily.
I wish you luck and courage on a battlefield.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
10 Important Tips & Tricks To Improve Trading Skills
In this article, we will discuss ten important tips and tricks that can enable you to improve your trading skills.
A trading plan is a must
Once you have tested the plan developed and it shows good results, that is the time to go full throttle investing in the stock market.
Do not lose confidence
Be a learner
Be a learner and practice trading as a new entrant, even if it has been decades of trading for you. Look at trading as a classroom with much to offer and to be taken one thing at a time.
Don't fall for rumours
Treat it like a Business
It is serious business here and requires precision, patience, commitment, in-depth analysis and cold-blooded research.
A stop-loss is essential
Have technology at your side
Trader must be up-to-date on the happenings in the trading world and use technology to know about stock movements, new products, new trading schemes and pre-empt market movements.
Defend your trading capital
Take risks that you can afford
It enables you to plan well and not overexpose yourself to the risks in share market trading.
Be open to new strategies
Never in trading should there be a time that you follow a trading plan that is outdated or rigid to change.
What do you want to learn in the next post?
How to find High Probability trades?Hi all, hope you guys are doing well.
In this post, we are going to see how we can combine different indicators/concepts to create confluence zones and find high-probability trades.
Introduction
A trade that has a greater chance of success than a regular trade is called a high-probability trade. Obviously, it's our assumption that some trades have higher chances of success as compared to others because they have more supporting factors. Nevertheless, a high probability trade can also result in a loss.
How to find high-probability trades?
There are a few things that you can observe to find a confluence of various important factors such as a support/resistance level, demand/ supply zone , Fibonacci level, moving averages, volume , RSI , etc.
Depending on your knowledge and trading style, the confluence zone can be derived using a combination of various different concepts or indicators. In this post, I am going to share the factors that I look at for finding good trades.
How to find confluence zones?
In order to find the confluence zones, you need to understand the concepts and the indicators, then combine them together to create the whole picture. It's like building a jigsaw puzzle - first, you need to identify the individual pieces, and then you need to put them together.
Let’s dive into all of these concepts one by one.
1. Market structure
Market structure is simply a basic form of understanding how the markets move. The price action is how the market moves based just on price, without the consideration of trends and how they may continue. But the market structure is focused mainly on the trend.
I have covered market structure in various different threads that you can read here:
a) Introduction to Market structure
b) Bullish market structure
c) Bearish market structure
2. Consolidation before Breakout
If a stock consolidates before giving a breakout, there are higher chances that it will be a true breakout. This is because all the residual supply gets absorbed at the resistance zone and most of the pending demand orders get filled.
Ideally, once a stock goes into consolidation, one of the two processes occurs:
Accumulation
Distribution
In layman’s terms,
- If demand is more aggressive than supply, then the price rallies, which confirms accumulation.
- Similarly, if the supply is more aggressive than the demand, then the price falls down, which confirms distribution.
If you are struggling with identifying the breakouts, be sure to read this post.
3. Support-Resistance levels
S/R levels are critical parts of trend analysis because they are used to highlight important zones. The fact that these levels flip roles between support and resistance can be used to determine the range of a market, trade reversals, bounces, or breakouts. These levels exist due to the influx of buyers and sellers at key junctures.
Flip zone acting as resistance:
Flip zone acting as support:
If you are looking for an in-depth tutorial on support and resistance, please check out my old guide here:
4. Supply-Demand zones
S/D demand zones are one of the most important things that I look at while charting. The stronger the S/D zone, the higher the chances of a reaction. Always look for these zones in the direction of the major trend.
5. Location of 200MA or 200EMA
Always observe the position of 200MA/ EMA with respect to price. Once the price interacts with the moving average, study the reaction. If you are looking for a long trade, then look for a positive reaction as the price reacts with the moving average.
6. Overlap with a Fibonacci level
A lot of times, the price will come back to a Fibonacci level. You need to observe the price behavior near these levels.
If you are not familiar with the Fibonacci tool, please check my old guide on Fibonacci retracement and extension.
7. Candlestick pattern and the size of the candles
The candle spread plays an important role in determining the strength and mood of the underlying trend. In layman's terms, big-bodied candles indicate strength and small-bodied candles act as noise.
In any case, the candlestick pattern and candle spread should only be viewed at an important level. The context plays a crucial role.
8. Chart patterns
This is pretty self-explanatory. If you trade patterns, you can combine them with other factors to strengthen your analysis.
9. Volume expansion
Ideally, at the time of the breakout, the volumes should rise. The volume can be deceiving and we need to see orderflow for a clear picture. Obviously, the majority of us are not looking at the orderflow and hence the volumes can be deceiving. But, for a normal trader, the simple volume indicator is more than enough.
So, these are mainly all of the factors that I look at while analyzing the charts. Please note that the usage of the concepts will vary with charts. Sometimes only 3-4 factors may be at play and the other times, 6-7.
High Probability trade checklist:
1. Market structure
2. Consolidation before the Breakout
3. Support-Resistance levels
4. Supply-Demand zones
5. Location of 200MA or 200EMA
6. Overlap with a Fibonacci level
7. Candlestick pattern and the size of candles
8. Chart pattern
9. Volume expansion
In the example above, you can notice the following things:
1. The market structure was bullish before the breakout, which was evident from the formation of higher highs and higher lows. Don't confuse the internal structure (Low time frame structure) with the external structure (High time frame structure).
2. The price was consolidating in the rectangle / parallel channel for a good amount of time.
3. When the price reached the previous demand zone, the selling pressure started to decrease and the buyers started to step in.
4. When the price interacted with 200MA/ EMA, there was a strong reaction to the upside. This means that the buyers want to take the price higher.
6. The buying interest can be seen by an increase in the volume in the last few sessions before the breakout. The volume can be deceiving and we need to see orderflow for a clear picture. But in general, you do not need to complicate this, just use volumes in conjunction with other factors.
7. We always look for some reversal or indecision candlesticks in the confluence zone. In the chart above, at the point of interaction with the moving average and the demand zone, we can see the formation of exhaustion candles.
Again, we need to look at these patterns only at specific important levels (like support or resistance levels) and disregard the formations in between the levels.
8. When the price broke above the previous major resistance with a massive bullish candle, there was a heavy volume expansion.
More examples:
You can read and revise this post until you understand all the concepts.
Thanks for reading. I hope you found this helpful! 😊
Disclaimer : This is NOT investment advice. This post is meant for learning purposes only. Invest your capital at your own risk.
Happy learning. Cheers!
Rajat Kumar Singh (@johntradingwick)
Community Manager (India), TradingView
How to differentiate a fake-out from an actual break-outHappy Friday, sorcerers. Welcome on another educational post by Investroy!
The trading and investing industry is a difficult one to succeed in as it has various complex details that you need to dig into both from technical and psychological perspectives. Predicting the price movement and understanding the logic behind it may be challenging at first. But as time passes and you gain experience, you understand the science behind price action and make more logical decisions.
Today, we will talk about a rather puzzling issue faced by many beginning and experienced traders: the theme of differentiating fake price movements from real ones. Although, it is not always possible to separate the two to the full extent, it is feasible to build a plan around it and stick to it on a consistent basis.
A fake-out is a failed attempt of the price to break above/below a key zone. Very often, it is associated with liquidity grabs and Stop Loss hunts. To demonstrate, looking at the illustration pictured on the chart, you can see how the price attempts to continue its bullish moves, but fakes out from the sideways-moving range and re-enters the borders of it instead.
On the contrary, a breakout happens when price successfully penetrates a key level and continues its impulsive moves in the same direction
Now, the question is: how to distinguish a real breakout from a fake one?
Firstly, it has to be kept in mind that what goes up, must come down. In trading terms, after an impulsive move, a correctional one should come; after a breakout, a re-test should happen before continuing impulses. In order to identify whether a breakout is a fake or a real one, we should always look for a re-test of the penetrated zone after a break is completed. However, you have to keep in mind that it is not a 100% fact that a re-test will happen every time. Sometimes, breakouts will be so impulsive that price will not retrace back to re-test a penetrated zone.
Nothing is 100% accurate in trading. Not every breakout will lead to a re-test before impulsive continuations. Not every fake breakout will seem like a fake-out at first. However, waiting for a re-test of a broken zone is a good way to evade fake breakouts and capture high risk-to-reward trades and opportunities.
To conclude, if you want to make sure you don’t get faked out and liquidated, always wait for a re-test of a penetrated level before forming biases and executing positions.
What Kind of Person You Need to Become to Be ProfitableHello traders,
All the below are based on my preferences, I don't give any financial recommendations and I have nothing to sell you with this article.
I'm sharing content because I see a lot of traders being/becoming broke and I don't want you to be one of them.
Why have I been sharing so many articles so far?
I’ve shared one educational post a day because being a trader is a job.
And a job is the sum of many skills to acquire.
Each skill taken individually won’t make you a profitable trader.
Talking about me and the guys from my trading community, only all those skills applied altogether give us a shot at making money.
Trading is one of the most challenging and one of the most monetary rewarding activity.
Work on yourself first
Your trading profitability is a direct reflection of who you are as an individual.
It’s just is.
If you’re not profitable, it’s because you made some mistakes.
And if you made them, it’s because you didn’t work enough on yourself yet.
Having great trading signals is indeed an essential tool among the stack of tools to have but… this is not enough.
And I’m saying this as someone selling trading signals (and a trading course).
In a past life, when I worked as a back office Quant, we were strongly encouraged to workout, meditate, eat healthy, sleep 7+ hours, having some social life, etc…
Being a trader is first being a human with great habits leading him/her towards nothing else but excellence.
How can someone expects to perform well at such a tough job while being fat and/or sleeping 4 hours a night and/or not controlling his mind/emotions,…
YOU JUST CAN’T.
Trading is hard enough already and the market knows damn well how to take the hard-earned money from people who didn’t work on themselves enough.
Your skills stack
As an entrepreneur owning online businesses, I had to learn about sales, marketing, negotiation, copywriting, accounting, taxes optimisation, coding, hiring, building a company culture, …
Each skill taken separately isn’t enough to bootstrap a business.
All of them used together gave me a shot at succeeding
The same goes with trading.
The reason any very profitable trader I know became profitable after some serious time is because the stack of skills to acquire is consequential.
And I’m not talking about skills we can learn in a short timeframe.
I had to learn how to: (non-exhaustive list)
- Meditate
- Refrain myself from trading when I’m tired or sick or frustrated
- Put my ego side and time to time get back to trading with smaller position size
- Take my profit for the day and get out of my place and go outside
- Eat/sleep properly
- Relax and breath and do some NSDR (Non-Sleep Deep Rest)
- Working out properly and building muscles -> I’m so sure there is a direct correlation for men between our Testosterone level and the courage to enter and manage difficult trades.
- Not be greedy -> One needs to get slapped hard in the face a few times to understand that
- Never anticipate -> many times I cut a trade before the stop-loss or I entered too early front-running some signal(s) - in retrospect, was really a stupid behaviour
- Psychology and Game Theory
- Code trading scripts and trading bots in multiple programming languages
- Listen to the right mentors aka traders way ahead of me in term of net worth
- …
Those skills used altogether compound and made me a very disciplined person - those are my daily non-negotiable behaviours.
If you’re not profitable yet, it isn’t necessarily because the signals you have are bad.
And to figure out if they’re bad or not, you need some trading experience… which comes from….. taking a huge amount of trades for an extended period of time.
Your lack of profitability, comes for most of you from some work you still need to do.
And by the way, each trade you take works on you.
Your trades work on you more than you work on them.
What I mean by that, the more trades you take, the more skilled you get as you keep learning about yourself.
A virtuous feedback loop.
Many traders who lost everything due to a big mistake knew how to make it all back and beyond because…. they already had the required skills.
Conclusion
A red-pilled trader could decide to put his/her money into a 100% trading bot because… learning all those skills is time-consuming.
My advice to that person is…. “Good luck with your endeavour, you’ll likely wreck yourself”
If you don’t trust me… well… I worked as a back office Quant coding trading bots for about 5 years in NYC.
I tested and built more bots than 99.99% of people.
Retail trading bots sellers are selling a concept, a dream which by definition doesn’t reflect the reality.
Regardless of the strategy, it’s unlikely a 100% automated bot performs well overtime as market conditions keep changing.
We’re now in uncharted territory with a very high inflation rate, extreme tensions between countries, an extreme defiance of people of their governments, the WEF, WHO, … (and how could we not blame them seeing what they did to us those past 2 years)
Anyway, what I’m strongly recommending as someone who built non-retail trading bots for a living: learn to trade manually first and then learn how to pilot a bot.
Quotes of the day
- “Never chase opportunities. Let it come to you by creating value and building rare skillsets.” ― Johannes Larsson
- “The ability to make wise choices is the most valuable skill a person can develop.” ― Abhishek Ratna
“Skills don’t die; only people do.” ― Anas Hamshari
“A good trader converts his skills to cash.” ― Michael Bassey Johnson
I'll keep bringing a few articles like this every week because it helps me clarifying my thoughts AND giving back to the community makes me feel good about myself somehow :)
Thank you for reading
Dave
Why You Should Meditate - And How To StartHello traders,
All the below are based on my preferences, I don't give any financial recommendations and I have nothing to sell you with this article.
I'm sharing content because I see a lot of traders being/becoming broke and I don't want you to be one of them.
Why to meditate?
It will help you closing these unsolved thoughts that come from living and are based on fear, pain, ...
Eventually, you will have resolved all of these unsolved issues, and you get into a state of bliss and peace = true happiness.
If you can get there, it changes your life.
Protocol to get started
- Timeline: 60 days
- Duration: up to 1 hour a day, start with 5 minutes your first time but the end goal is reaching 1 hour a day.
I started with 5 minutes, then added about 5/10 minutes more every week
- Protocol: First thing to do in the morning - No music, No sound, No apps.
Get super comfy because you don't wanna move for the next hour.
If you really struggle to stay within yourself, you can use an app or any guided meditation content - there are plenty for free on Youtube and Spotify.
Why do I even meditate?
I'm doing it every day as it helps turning off my "monkey mind"
You know that state of mind when we take trades we shouldn't or with a position size we shouldn't :)
Basically, acting like animals living in a pretty blank state...living in the moment.... following their instincts, feelings, wants.
Trading is very often going against what I feel.
Then, meditation helped me kind of suppressing this "FOMO/FEAR/OH CRAP I HAVE TO TAKE THAT TRADE BECAUSE EVERYONE IS IN IT" state of mind
When we let the monkey mind governing us, we may develop a strong self of self/ego.
We then tend to see the world as we want and mold it to our desires and preconceived notions, instead of seeing it as it actually is.
The huge issue with this is it leads us to trade based on on our vision of the World and not based on the charts.
For an investment or a SWING trade, it's always uncomfortable and painful to see it as it is.
How many times was I plain wrong and I held because I wanted to believe it would sort itself out and I'll end up making a profit.
The longer I waited to react and cut my losses, the higher the odds that trade could wreck me
Anyone else got in that situation?
Conclusion
The mind should be a servant and a tool, not a master.
My monkey mind should NOT control and drive me 24/7.
I want to break the habit of uncontrolled thinking, which is very hard.
Quotes of the day
- “Meditation is not about stopping thoughts, but recognising that we are more than our thoughts and our feelings.” — Arianna Huffington
- “Mediation is not spacing out or running away. In fact, it is being totally honest with ourselves” – Kathleen McDonald
- “I meditate so that my mind cannot complicate my life” – Sri Chinmoy
- “Meditation is like a gym in which you develop the powerful mental muscles of calm and insight.”– Ajahn Brahm
- “Meditation is not about feeling a certain way. It's about feeling the way you feel.” — Dan Harris
I'll keep bringing a few articles like this every week because it helps me clarifying my thoughts AND giving back to the community makes me feel good about myself somehow :)
Thank you for reading
Dave
Do not get caught in this trap!Good time of the day, friends! Rushing into trades is definitely among the top #3 common mistakes done by relatively newer market participants who we would call early sellers in this context.
The chart/infographic above is pretty self explanatory, but let’s still cover some aspects of it by considering a following scenario:
Market was moving sideways the whole week, you almost lost hope to finish the month in profits and now you see the up-trending channel with already 2 lower trend-line touches. You instantly get excited and set a long position in the area of a third touch. Well, next thing you know it plummets right past through it. Lesson learned, but what can be done to avoid that?
Well, first of all “look for multiple confluences”. Does the third touch coincide with a potential support zone? If not, that already weakens the point. Was there any signs of bottom forming and reversal? Another strike if not. Did it coincide with any Fibonacci levels, for instance? No? You’re out.
Going over mistakes is easy, as there are always so many things that can go wrong, but what’s an alternative then, you may ask. On the chart above, we also indicated a point where we would consider entering the mentioned trade. Patient execution with a proper Risk-Reward is a way to do it.
Hope this helps, and tune in for more content for us!
Your Ability To Stick To a Strategy MattersHello traders,
All the below are based on my preferences, I don't give any financial recommendations and I have nothing to sell you with this article.
I'm sharing content because I see a lot of traders being/becoming broke and I don't want you to be one of them.
Your ability to stick to a strategy matters more than the strategy itself
As a systemic trader, I've always said knowing what to do is the easy part.
Applying a proven strategy with unconditional conviction is when it starts getting hard.
Trading against your deep beliefs
You want to believe a narrative
You want to believe it has to go up or down because someone from CNBC/Twitter said something
When any trading strategy then gives a signal in the opposite direction of your beliefs, you're undecided, you can't take the trade.
I've heard those sentences from unexperienced traders
"It has to go down because the FED increased the interest rates so I'm not taking that Long"
"It has to go up because ABC is an inflation hedge and we're only 3X from the previous ATH"
Let me ask you this...
Don't you think most traders are losing money because of their beliefs?
Trading against yourself
There is a signal to exit but you don't want to exit because the last few exits made you exit too early..
There is a signal to enter but you don't want to enter because the last few entries weren't winners...
Then comes an entry that you decided to ignore, the trade worked wonderfully but you ignored it....
Then comes an exit for a trade you're in that you decided to ignore leading to a bigger loss....
See a pattern here?
Following a strategy is hard because it's trading against who we are and what we think.
But, once we learn to ignore as much as possible our "human" side, is when we start making the sweet gains!!!
Quotes of the day
- “Everything must be made as simple as possible. But not simpler.” ― Albert Einstein
- “Any system was a straightjacket if you insisted on adhering to it so totally and humourlessly.” ― Erica Jong, Fear of Flying
I'll keep bringing a few articles like this every week because it helps me clarifying my thoughts AND giving back to the community makes me feel good about myself somehow :)
Thank you for reading
Dave
BIGGEST TRADING MISTAKES YOU MUST KNOW
While some trading mistakes are unavoidable, it is important that you don’t make a habit of them and learn from both successful and unsuccessful positions. With that in mind, these are the 10 most common trading mistakes.
1 - Not researching the markets properly
Some traders will open or close a position on a gut feeling, or because they have heard a tip.
It is important to back these feelings or tips up with evidence and market research before committing to opening or closing a position.
2 - Trading without a plan
3 - Over-reliance on indicators
4 - Failing to cut losses
The temptation to let losing trades run in the hope that the market turns can be a grave error, and failing to cut losses can wipe out any profits a trader may have made elsewhere.
5 - Overexposing a position
6 - Overdiversifying a portfolio too quickly
While diversifying a trading portfolio can act as a hedge in case one asset’s value declines, it can be unwise to open too many positions in a short amount of time.
7 - Not understanding leverage
8 - Not understanding the risk-reward ratio
The risk-to-reward ratio is something every trader should take into consideration, as it helps them decide whether the end profit is worth the possible risk of losing capital.
9 - Overconfidence after a profit
10 - Letting emotions impair decision-making
Emotional trading is not smart trading. Emotions, such as excitement after a good day or despair after a bad day, could cloud decision-making and lead traders to deviate from their plan.
Every trader makes mistakes, and the examples covered in this article don’t need to be the end of your trading. However, they should be taken as opportunities to learn what works and what doesn’t work for you.
How To Improve Decision Making SkillsHello traders,
All the below are based on my preferences, I don't give any financial recommendations and I have nothing to sell you with this article.
I'm sharing content because I see a lot of traders being/becoming broke and I don't want you to be one of them.
Decision & Outcome
As a trader, I often noticed a disconnect between the right decision and the right outcome.
If you read my previous content, I talked about repeating successful trades, finding a trading strategy that works and keep trading it over and over again.
Your decision-making process in the most valuable thing that you have.
It’s what make you decide who you’re going to marry, what business opportunity you’re going to pursue, which mentors you’re going to follow, what assets you’re going to trade etc…
You could take the money away from the most successful traders or entrepreneurs and they’ll make it back again.
Ray Dalio, Elon Musk for example, lost everything and made it all back.
The hardest part about trading (and life in general) is you can make the right decision and have the wrong outcome.
Warren Buffet
Warren Buffet says “I wouldn’t touch Bitcoin” because it’s speculative, has no intrinsic value and would buy it only because someone else will buy it at a higher price.
Plus, a Bitcoin doesn’t produce anything… unlike a stock that produces dividends….unlike some real-estate that produces some rental income…unlike a business spitting out profit.
Those who listened to him chose to not buy Bitcoin years ago.
And until 1 year ago, the amount of money if would have been worth would have been a lot more.
Was the decision wrong? Or was it that the outcome did not match the quality of the decision?
If you’re going to change the way you made decisions because a decision you made in the past ended up bad, you have to apply the same decision making context/framework to everything else.
If I say, I’m now going to be a speculator - someone who buy things in the hope to sell it later for more even though the things themselves don’t have more value.
If I choose to start making this kind of decision, I have to think about all the other investments I would have and lost money on as a result of that decision making framework.
I heard this first from Ray Dalio.
Ray Dalio
He said, the hardest things is passing up on an opportunity and then seeing it do really well.
If I were to use the decision framework that would have made that deal a winner then I’d have to apply that same framework to all the other trades that would have been losers.
And my net net of having that decision making framework would ultimately cause me to lose.
This has been one of the most powerful concept for me as a trader because it allows me to separate the outcome from the quality of the decision.
Most speculators don't make money so that's why even if I feel pain when assets I don't own go up, I comfort myself thinking I made the right decision to choose to only trading cryptocurrencies and not holding any long-term.
And god bless..... I was right based on the events from last week #FTX
Reflecting on my trading
It’s not because I missed some opportunities or failed some trades that my decision-making framework was wrong.
My father and mentor taught me during my first year to only trade based on a convergence of indicators - to never use fundamental analysis nor blockchain analysis for those trading cryptos.
My decision-making process is 100% based on the chart and nothing else.
Whenever I get a bad outcome but traded my system as I should, it’s okay as I know overtime it gives me more winners than losers.
However, if I trade based on something I read on social media then more often than not, I end up losing money.
I've been trading using the same trading system for almost a decade - the convergence of indicators used encapsulates automatically a list of checkpoints verifying if a trade has enough momentum/strength/volume for me to consider whether I should take it or not.
Quotes of the day
- "We all make choices, but in the end, our choices make us." — Ken Levine
- "Good and evil both increase at compound interest. That is why the little decisions you and I make every day are of such infinite importance." — C.S. Lewis
- “It's not about making the right choice. It's about making a choice and making it right.― J.R. Rim,
I'll keep bringing a few articles like this every week because it helps me clarifying my thoughts AND giving back to the community makes me feel good about myself somehow :)
Thank you for reading
Dave
The path to becoming a good trader
When a beginner learns to trade, they progress through stages as they develop their mindset.
The most commonly used learning model for trading is an adaptation of the 3 stages of competence model.
1. Unprofitable trader
This is the first stage that a trader goes through and they do not know that they have a lack of knowledge. In this stage, beginner traders will take their first few steps by downloading a platform, opening an account and begin to place trades.
However, they are influenced by emotion – usually lured by the thought of making a great deal of money in a short period of time.
Either one of two things are likely to happen for traders in this stage:
The trades turns against the trader immediately. They simply lack the experience to deal with the market environment.
New traders take large risks without a basic knowledge of risk management and they wipe out all previous profits and more.
2. Boom and bust trader
Boom and bust traders will realise that successful trading comes down to the psychology of the trader and their approach to the markets.
A basic understanding that you will never be able to predict what will happen in the markets, starts to form. You begin to realise that making money is based on a series of trades that incorporate winners and losers, and that it takes discipline to stick to a system, cut losses short and let profits run.
A trader in this stage will begin to enter and exit the markets whenever their system tells them to, without judgement and despite the emotion they are feeling.
3. Profitable trader
A trader is said to have reached the stage of unconscious competence once they have traded with so much practice that they are able to trade in an almost automatic mindset.
A disciplined approach requires very little effort and has become second nature.
At what stage are you at the moment?
How To Know When To Quit (Part 2/2)Hello traders,
All the below are based on my preferences, I don't give any financial recommendations and I have nothing to sell you with this article.
I'm sharing content because I see a lot of traders being/becoming broke and I don't want you to be one of them.
Sharing the second part of this article posted yesterday
5. Know your limits and set rules around it
Set out the rules beforehand rather than waiting until you are in it.
Because you will not make good decisions then.
There are particular states where you’re going to feel suboptimal that have to do with your own physical state.
You’re tired, you’re stressed, whatever, but then there are also cognitive states where you’re going to behave sub-optimally.
And the particular cognitive state where you’re really going to behave sub-optimally is when you’re in the losses.
And the reason that you’re going to be a terrible decision-maker is, except for the part it’s going to cause you to be emotional, is that you’re going to want to get your money back.
And this is a really big problem for investors.
You start down a path, it starts to lose and you don’t want to sell, because you can’t get your money back.
That’s the moment that you go from a loss on paper to a sure loss.
It’s when it becomes a realized loss.
And that is a moment that we do not like.
And so we will come up with all sorts of reasons to think we’re being rational in continuing on, when we’re being completely irrational because we’re just trying to protect ourselves from having that moment of having to take the sure loss.
6. Loss aversion
Our loss aversion prevents us from selling investments at a loss.
But this extend beyond trading too.
Decisions should be made based on the future, not the past.
I think people are familiar with loss aversion.
We don’t like to start things that carry with them a chance of loss, even if we’re winning to the decision.
When you already have a loss on the books, or even a cognitive loss on the books, it was trading at one level and now it’s trading lower, we don’t like to sell.
In other words, this becomes loss aversion stops us from starting aka taking trades sometimes.
Of course this is irrational, because what matters is, is the next dollar that you spend worthwhile, not did you already spend a dollar.
We shouldn’t care.
7. Endowment effect
We value things we own, much more than things we don’t own.
Even though the opposite might be true.
It could be stocks, bonds or our IDEAS.
We wrap our identity in things and won’t quit despite the warning signs.
And then we also have the issue, which I think is really important for investors, you have something called an endowment. We value things we own, much more than we value things that we don’t own.
And it’s not just ownership over investments, we actually own the stock, or we own the bond, or whatever, we own the option, but it’s also our ideas.
And every time we invest, we have ownership over our thesis.
And here’s the interesting thing, is that when the thing that we’re doing is out of consensus, this is when it gets really bad.
So when we think about these issues of sunk cost, and sure loss aversion, and the way our identity gets wrapped up in things, and the way we have ownership over things, and the way that affects our inability to stop, you have to put a big huge blinking warning sign when the thing we’re doing is out of consensus.
9. The kill criteria
Think in advance the signals you might see in the future that means that it is time to quit.
To continue holding this investment, what do you need to see in the next few quarters or years?
Sticking to things too long denies us future opportunities.
Think in advance about what are the signals that I might see in the future that would tell me that it’s time to walk away and you will get better at it.
What do I need to see within the next quarter or the next two quarters from the way that this investment might perform?
Essentially think, “How long can I tolerate this, or how much time do I need in order for me to actually get the information that I would need in order to be able to make a decision?”
Figure out what that time period is and then figure, at the end of that time period
“What would I have to see?
What are the benchmarks that this thing would have to hit in order for me to feel like I ought to continue?
And if it doesn’t hit these things, then I should walk away.
Quotes of the day
- "Losses loom larger than corresponding gains" ― Amos Tversky
- "If we could be freed from our aversion to loss, our whole outlook on risk would change"― Alan Hirsch
I'll keep bringing a few articles like this every week because it helps me clarifying my thoughts AND giving back to the community makes me feel good about myself somehow :)
Thank you for reading
Dave
JS-Masterclass: Sell Alerts / RulesJS-Masterclass #10: Sell Alerts / Sell Rules
In recent tutorials, we have covered different techniques and ways to identify low-risk entry points. We have talked about the perfect buy points and several entry patterns.
In this tutorial, we will discuss general rules for selling once we have entered a trade. Also, we will present a comprehensive list of warning signals which suggest to close a trade long before hitting the Stop-Loss.
1. Selling into strength
By far the best option for a swing-trader is to sell into strength. You will feel like a hero once you have mastered this technique!
Here are some guidelines for that:
a) Sell if you have achieved a gain which is a multiple of your risk. The minimum gain before selling into strength should be 2x the risk. Consider selling half and moving stop on remaining position to breakeven.
b) If your profit is more than your average gain and a multiple of your risk (generally 2-3x) consider trailing a stop or selling half and moving your stop up. You could also “backstop” your average gain or an amount you want to lock in.
c) The stock is extended and opens up on a gap; consider selling at least half or trail a tight stop.
2. Selling into weakness
a) The price hits pre-determined stop-loss – OUT… NO QUESTIONS! You will have to stick to this discipline before you will become a successful trader.
b) The stock closes below 20-day moving average, below your purchase price soon after a breakout from volatility contraction pattern; reduce shares when you have 3-4 days of lower lows without supportive action on day 3-4. This increases the odds of a failure.
c) Heavy selling with full retracement soon after low volume breakout. This is a bad signal – get out of the trade.
d) Key reversal on heavy volume when stock is extended – sell at least half.
3. Sell Alerts
Stocks will flash warning signals long before a big decline. Here are some to watch for:
a) Accelerated rate of advance (parabolic “blow-off” price action)
b) After extended move stock moves up 25-50% in 1-3 weeks (12 of 15 days up over 3 weeks)
c) Largest up day since beginning of move (look for reversal or churning over the next 1-4 trading days). This could mean that the stock is in its final leg up and almost exhausted.
d) Largest daily price spread since advance started
e) Largest weekly price spread since beginning of advance
f) Exhaustion gaps (after stock is extended – usually 2nd or 3rd gap )
g) New high on low volume which sometimes indicates the beginning of a phase 3
h) Heavy volume with little price progress (stalling action)
i) Drop below the 50-day moving average line on the heaviest daily volume since beginning of move
j) Largest one-day decline since beginning of move
k) Largest weekly decline on huge volume
l) Downwards action on large volume
Perfect Buy Points: IPO’s – The Primary BaseJS-Masterclass #8:
Perfect Buy Points: IPO’s – The Primary Base
When it comes to investing in IPO stocks, new issues don't play by the usual rules.
Companies making initial public offerings draw a lot of investor attention. That often results in unusual and brand-new chart patterns. Volatility can rise as investors size up demand for the new stock. Yet there are opportunities in these cases, if you can spot the correct characteristics amid the price-and-volume action.
The framework of a good IPO base is simple. The decline from peak to low usually doesn't top 20%, but the most volatile markets have produced declines of up to 50%. The length is often less than five weeks and can be as short as seven days. These two factors alone make IPO bases wayward cousins compared with proper bases, such as the cup with handle and flat base, which need at least five to seven weeks of work.
In an IPO base, the pattern typically starts within 25 days of the stock's first day of trading. Know the important similarities with regular bases. For example, the buy point is drawn by taking the prior high and adding 10 cents. The price gain on the breakout should be strong.
There are ways to evaluate these blind spots, however. Important factors include seeing a shallow correction within the base during normal market conditions, a large increase in price and a close near session highs on the breakout day, and heavy volume on the breakout day and week.
Also, the stock should generally form the base above its IPO price.
Example - ServiceNow (NOW)
The business software company, went public in June 2012, at 18 a share and has built its primary base during the period from the initial offering to April 2013 when the stock developed its first perfect buy point.