Putting the odds in your favor - $EXEL in a green zone pullbackI've said before that trading with the trend is always something that improves your odds, both long and short. I don't ALWAYS trade with the trend but I like to, especially when there's other compelling reasons to. Putting the odds in your favor is always a smart move when trading.
On this chart I'm using 2 things to illustrate trend. The GC overlay is simply a pair of moving average ribbons that I use to show me the strength of the trend. Yellow above purple is an uptrend. I usually use green and red which are the default colors, but changed the colors for this in case anyone is red/green colorblind.
Almost as important for me, is the gap between the two ribbons. This shows the strength of that trend. You can see that since August, NASDAQ:EXEL has been in a strong uptrend. We like that being the case whenever possible.
Now my algo says oversold (and its input is not disputed by me) but it also incorporates some of this. However, the visual here shows that the oversold signal is just as the price is touching the upper part of the yellow ribbon. IF price had collapsed in a hurry into the bottom part of that ribbon or especially through it, I'd be thinking it was more of a trend reversal signal. This is shown by the circle on the chart back in January and again in early-mid April) rather than a temporary pullback. When the price crashes through that band, it's a warning. Listen to it, especially if you trade trends more than the 'noise' that I trade.
I also like to have these pullbacks occur in the upper half of the regression channel (the green zone). Again, if my algo says "buy" when it's in the red zone, I still listen. But if my algo says buy on two stocks, but one is in the green, and the other is in the red, I'll take the green almost every time.
As always, there are exceptions to the rules, where crashing doesn't signal a trend change or when gradual moves through the band are the beginning of trend changes. But it works often enough to be aware of it. If you open the chart for EXEL and apply this indicator, you'll see lots of other examples where this was a portent of things to come regarding a trend reversal. This works the same way moving up when the yellow ribbon is below the purple one during a bearish period. If there's an upward rip then, the odds just increased for a positive reversal.
I am nothing if not a slave to probability when trading. I don't guess or rely on hunches or what some random "pumper" says, trying to get everyone to be on their side of a trade. I make every trading decision based on probability. You should too. It doesn't mean you''ll always be right, but it will increase how often you are.
When you're designing a trading system, know the probability behind the decision you're making. If you don't, you're just guessing and most people lose money trading because of that. If you're trading a head and shoulders pattern, for example, do you know the win probability behind it? I doubt it. But you should. You're just trusting that because someone else said it works, that it will this time, on this stock, in this never before seen combined environment of variables. Until you test something on THIS stock, under as many possible conditions as you can, don't be surprised when it fails. I try to post backtest results (or at least partial ones) when I post trades, so you can see WHY I trust the decision I'm making.
That testing, and the probability that it indicates, should influence not only the direction of your trade, but stop placements if you use them and even capital allocation. Stronger probabilities warrant stronger conviction and vice versa. I'm not saying if your system says 99% chance of a win, to go all in and then lose it all. Probability and PROBABLY have the same linguistic root for a reason. Probability is NEVER a guarantee. It is a compass for a trade, not military grade GPS.
So in the end, all price action, indicators, and patterns are simply elements that can increase the probability of your trades working out. But knowing how they work, and how reliable they are should be a HUGE part of your prep work for trading, long before you ever risk real money on that trade. If not, I hope that money doesn't matter very much to you - because you're likely to lose it.
I took this trade at the close today. I'm simply looking to turn a profit, so my goal is any gain above my entry price and then get that capital back to work on another idea. I'm adding as long as my algo says it's oversold and selling each lot as it becomes profitable.
EXEL long at 26.06 - wish me luck!
I hope you all realize this post was instructional and not an encouragement to take this trade, so if you decide to trade it, good luck, but do your own research first.
