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Economic Cycles

Election Year Cycle & Stock Market Returns - VisualisedIn this chart, we're analysing the open value of the week the US election took place and comparing it to the open of the following election, showing the gain (or loss) in value between each election cycle. Historically we can see prices in the Dow Jones Industrials Index tend to appreciate the week the election is held. Only twice has the return between the cycles produced a negative return. Buying stocks on election day, 8 out of 10 times has yielded a profitable return between the election cycles. 80% of the time in the past 40 years returning a profit, has so far been a good strategy to take. The typical cycle starts with the election results, an immediate positive movement and continued growth before finishing positive. The Outliers 2000-2004 was the only year which ended negative without prices going higher than the election day. 2004-2008 increased 41.84% before ending negative. 2008-2012 began the cycle falling 30.62% before finishing positive. The names of presidents who won their respective elections is to visualise who had the presidential term during that specific cycle.
TVC:DJIEducation
by Mt.BFX
What Is Money Flow In & Out of a Stock? And Why Should You Care?Professionals often speak of money flowing in or out of a stock, but how can that be if there is an equal number of buyers and sellers? It is because “Money Flow” comes from the balance of the lot sizes. There are four possible positions in any one stock: Buy Buy to Cover Sell Sell Short Each investor and trader in the stock has their own separate agenda. Each may come from a different Market Participant Group. There are now 9 Stock Market Participant Groups, starting from those who buy first, at the bottom of a new upward cycle: The giant Buy Side Institutions who invest Mutual and Pension Funds and/or create ETFs and other kinds of stock market derivatives. The Sell Side Institutions, aka the big banks and major market makers Wealthy Individual Investors Corporations Institutional/ Pro Traders High Frequency Traders (HFTs) Small Funds Individual Small-Lot Investors, Investment Groups and Individual Retail Traders Odd-Lot Investors Buyers are anticipating that the stock is going to move up. Their stock order types span the spectrum, for example: Market Orders, Limit Orders, Stop Orders. Buy to Cover Orders are placed by traders who sold short and are now taking profits. Those who are selling the stock are anticipating that the stock is going to move down. In an uptrending stock, this is profit-taking near the top of the run. It can also be similar in a downtrending stock because the seller is afraid that the stock is going to move down more, and they have been holding through what they thought was a short retracement. Most of these stock order types will be “Sell at Market” (SAM). Sell Short Traders are anticipating that the stock is going to move down, and they can place a variety of orders just like the buyers. Both Buyers and Sell Shorters are entering the trade, while Buy to Covers and Sellers are exiting the trade. It is the mix of these different types of buying and selling coupled with the kind of investor or trader and the size of their share lots that causes money to flow in or out of a stock. If the buyers are mostly large lots and the sellers are mostly small lots, who is in control? The buyers purchasing large lots . This is because, at some point, there will not be enough small-lot sellers, and those who are Selling Short will turn and start Buying to Cover, creating more of a shortage of sellers. Consequently, this will put more pressure on the buy side. There are always latecomers to a stock run, and they are usually small-lot buyers. As the stock moves up in price, more of the small-lot buyers will step in, pushing the price up even further. Most small-lot buyers typically use a “Buy at Market” Order, which is the worst kind to use to control the entry price. As the stock moves up further in price, the last of the Short Sellers will panic and Buy to Cover, causing the stock to gap up or jump even higher. This then triggers the large-lot buyers to start selling for profit. As profit-taking begins, the stock dips in price. This causes the odd-lot buyer, who is the last in the market participant cycle to buy, to rush into the stock and buy because they have been told to “Buy the Dip.” By now, the news media has been talking about this stock and its great run. Consequently, the odd-lot uninformed investor finds the dip irresistible and buys on pure emotion without any analysis of the stock. This causes the final gap up and exhaustion pattern. Now, while all of those odd-lot latecomers are buying, who is selling to balance the equation? Market Makers are Selling Short and the Smart Money, who were the first to enter, are selling to take profits. Suddenly, the large lots are now shifting to the downside, and what happens? The control switches to the sellers who are moving larger lots. Now, money is flowing out of the stock, yet the price may go up briefly before a downtrend develops. Large lots are usually wiser investors and traders who know more than the other investors and traders. So the giant Buy Side Institutions investing Mutual and Pension Funds, who have access to information often not yet available to Individual Investors and Retail Traders, are called the Smart Money. It can be assumed that the smaller the lot size, the less the investor or trader knows and understands about the market. As smaller lots move in, a shift of power occurs due to the large lots moving to the sell side, and thus money shifts to flowing out of the stock. As the stock collapses and reaches a price or equilibrium near a base or bottom, those smaller lots who held through the collapse reach an emotional point of extreme pain of loss and begin to sell in panic. In response, the Smart Money and Market Makers switch roles again, Buying to Cover their profitable shorts and buying to hold as the stock moves up again. Summary: Every time you take a position in a stock, there are also three other positions in that same stock. You need to be aware of each of these and make sure that you are with the right group. Most of the time, traders who are having problems with their trades are simply trading with the wrong group. It is important, then, to learn about today's stock market structure and what I call the "Cycle of Market Participants." When traders can trade with the flow of the Smart Money, they have a decided advantage.
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
What is Structure Mapping in Gold Trading XAUUSD? Structure mapping is essential for day trading, scalping and swing trading gold. It is applied for trend analysis, pattern recognition, reversal and trend-following trading. In this article, I will teach you how to execute structure mapping on Gold chart and how to apply that for making accurate predictions and forecasts. Take notes and let's get started. Let's discuss first, what is structure mapping? With structure mapping, we perceive the price chart as the set of impulse and retracement legs. Structure mapping can be executed on any time frame and on any financial market. Look at a Gold chart on a 4H time frame. What I did, I underlined significant price movements. Each point where every leg of a movement completes will have a specific name and meaning. On a gold chart, I underlined all such points. These points are very important because it determines the market trend and show the patterns. When you execute structure mapping, the first thing that you should start with the identification of a starting point - the initial point of analysis. On a price chart, such a point should be the highest high that you see or the lowest low. If you start structure mapping with a high, that high will be called Initial High. A completion point of a bearish movement from the Initial High will be called Lower Low LL. A bullish movement that completes BELOW the level of the Initial High or Any Other High will be called Lower High LH. A bullish movement that completes on the level of the Initial High or Any Other High will be called Equal High. A bullish movement that completes above the level of the Initial High or Any Other High will be called Higher High HH. If you start with the low, such point will be called Initial Low. A completion point of a bullish movement from the Initial Low will be called Higher High HH. A bearish movement that completes ABOVE the level of the Initial Low or Any Other Low will be called Higher Low HL. A bearish movement that completes on the level of the Initial Low or Any Other Low will be called Equal Low. A bearish movement that completes below the level of the Initial Low or Any Other Low will be called Lower Low LL. Look how I executed structure mapping on Gold chart. Starting with the lowest low, I underlined all significant price movements and its lows and highs. You should learn to recognize these points because it is the foundation of gold structure mapping. Combinations of these points will be applied for the identification of the market trend, trend reversal and patterns. According to the rules, 2 lower lows and a lower high between them are enough to confirm that the market is trading in a bearish trend. While 2 higher highs and a higher low between them confirm that the trend is bullish . In a bullish trend, a bullish violation of the level of the last Higher High will be called a Break of Structure BoS. That event signifies the strength of the buyers and a bullish trend continuation. A bearish violation of the level of the last Higher Low will be called Change of Character CHoCH . It will mean the violation of a current bullish trend. In a bearish trend, a bearish violation of the level of the last Lower Low will be called a Break of Structure BoS . It is an important event that signifies the strength of the sellers and a bearish trend continuation. While a bullish violation of the level of the last lower high will be called Change of Character CHoCH. That even will signify a violation of a bearish trend. That's how a complete structure mapping should look on Gold chart. With the identification of the legs of the move, highs and lows, BoS and ChoCh you can clearly understand what is happening with the market. Gold was trading in a bearish trend. Once the level of our Initial Low was tested, the market started a correctional movement and started to trade in a bullish trend. Once some important resistance was reached, the market reversed. We saw a confirmed CHoCH and the market returned to a bearish trend. Structure mapping is the foundation of technical analysis. It is the basis of various trading strategies and trading styles. It is the first thing that you should start your trading education with. I hope that my guide helped you to understand how to execute structure mapping in Gold trading. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
2
These Market Structures Are Crucial for EveryoneIn this article, we will simplify complex market structures by breaking them down into easy-to-understand patterns. Recognizing market structure can enhance your trading strategy, increase your pattern recognition skills in various market conditions. Let’s dive into some essential chart patterns that every trader should know. Double Bottom / Double Top A double bottom is a bullish reversal pattern that occurs when the price tests a support level twice without breaking lower, indicating strong buying interest. This pattern often suggests that the downtrend is losing momentum and a potential uptrend may follow. Conversely, a double top signals a bearish reversal, formed when the price tests a resistance level twice without breaking through. This pattern indicates selling pressure and suggests that the uptrend may be coming to an end. Bull Flag / Bear Flag A bull flag is a continuation pattern that appears after a strong upward movement. It typically involves a slight consolidation period before the trend resumes, providing a potential entry point for traders looking to capitalize on the ongoing bullish momentum. On the other hand, a bear flag forms during a downtrend, signaling a brief consolidation before the price continues its downward movement. Recognizing these flags can help traders identify potential breakout opportunities. Bull Pennant / Bear Pennant A bull pennant is a continuation pattern that forms after a sharp price increase, followed by a period of consolidation where the price moves within converging trendlines. This pattern often indicates that the upward trend is likely to continue after the breakout. Conversely, a bear pennant forms after a sharp decline, with the price consolidating within converging lines. This pattern suggests that the downtrend may resume after the breakout. Ascending Wedge / Descending Wedge An ascending wedge is a bearish reversal pattern that often forms during a weakening uptrend. It indicates that buying pressure is slowing down, and a reversal may be imminent. Traders should be cautious as this pattern suggests a potential downtrend ahead. In contrast, a descending wedge appears during a downtrend and indicates that selling pressure is weakening. This pattern may signal a bullish reversal, suggesting a possible upward breakout in the near future. Triple Top / Triple Bottom A triple top is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after the price tests a resistance level three times without breaking through, indicating strong selling pressure. This pattern can help traders anticipate a potential downtrend. Conversely, a triple bottom is a bullish reversal pattern where the price tests support three times before breaking higher. This pattern highlights strong buying interest and can signal a significant upward move. Cup and Handle / Inverted Cup and Handle The cup and handle pattern is a bullish continuation pattern resembling a rounded bottom, followed by a small consolidation phase (the handle) before a breakout. This pattern often indicates strong bullish sentiment and can provide a solid entry point. The inverted cup and handle is the bearish counterpart, signaling potential downward movement after a rounded top formation, suggesting that a reversal may occur. Head and Shoulders / Inverted Head and Shoulders The head and shoulders pattern is a classic bearish reversal signal characterized by a peak (head) flanked by two smaller peaks (shoulders). This formation indicates a potential downtrend ahead, helping traders to identify possible selling opportunities. The inverted head and shoulders pattern serves as a bullish reversal indicator, suggesting that an uptrend may follow after the price forms a trough (head) between two smaller troughs (shoulders). Expanding Wedge An expanding wedge is formed when price volatility increases, characterized by higher highs and lower lows. This pattern often indicates market uncertainty and can precede a breakout in either direction . Traders should monitor this pattern closely, as it can signal potential trading opportunities once a breakout occurs. Falling Channel / Rising Channel / Flat Channel A falling channel is defined by a consistent downtrend, with price movement contained within two parallel lines. This pattern often suggests continued bearish sentiment. Conversely, a rising channel indicates an uptrend, with price moving between two upward-sloping parallel lines, signaling bullish momentum. A flat channel represents sideways movement, indicating consolidation with no clear trend direction, often leading to a breakout once the price escapes the channel. P.S. It's essential to remember that market makers, whales, smart investors, and Wall Street are well aware of these structures. Sometimes, these patterns may not work as expected because these entities can manipulate the market to pull money from unsuspecting traders. Therefore, always exercise caution, and continuously practice and hone your trading skills. What are your thoughts on these patterns? Have you encountered any of them in your trading? I’d love to hear your experiences and insights in the comments below! If you found this breakdown helpful, please give it a like and follow for more technical insights. Stay tuned for more content, and feel free to suggest any specific patterns you’d like me to analyze next!
Education
by ArShevelev
5
Here's How You CONSOLIDATE Your Portfolio Into WinnersGoing through my entire portfolio to judge performance vs Solana, which has been my golden goose this cycle. I bought TSX:FIL in October 2023. If I put that money in Solana instead, I’d be up 345% vs breakeven right now. Obviously I’m selling that position here and flipping it into CRYPTOCAP:SOL How to compare: Jump onto TradingView and on the chart name type: BINANCE:SOLUSDT/BINANCE:FILUSDT You can swap out tickers and exchanges to compare your own portfolio.
Education
by jonnieking
Many Ways to Skin a Cat: Tailoring Risk Management The trading world is a diverse ecosystem, teeming with individuals seeking their own slice of the financial pie. Just like there's "more than one way to skin a cat," there are numerous trading styles, each with its unique approach to risk management. Let's delve into three common styles and how they navigate the inherent risks of the market: 1. The Swing Trader: Patience and Measured Risk Trading Style: Swing traders hold positions for days, weeks, or even months, capitalizing on broader market trends. They analyze charts to identify potential turning points and aim to capture mid-term price movements. Risk Management: Swing traders generally have a moderate risk tolerance. They typically: Employ position sizing strategies, allocating a specific percentage of their capital to each trade. Utilize stop-loss orders to automatically exit positions if the price falls below a predetermined threshold, limiting potential losses. Focus on risk-reward ratios, ensuring the potential profit outweighs the potential loss for each trade. Pros: Requires less active monitoring compared to day trading. Can potentially capture larger profits from sustained trends. Cons: Slower potential for accumulating profits compared to shorter-term trading styles. Requires patience and the ability to withstand temporary price fluctuations. 2. The Day Trader: In and Out, Embracing Short-Term Volatility Trading Style: Day traders are the adrenaline junkies of the trading world, entering and exiting positions within a single trading day. They capitalize on short-term price movements and market inefficiencies. Risk Management: Day traders often have a higher risk tolerance due to the frequent nature of their trades. They: Emphasize strict stop-loss discipline to manage potential losses quickly. May utilize leverage (borrowed capital) to amplify potential gains, but this significantly increases the risk of larger losses. Focus on managing their emotional state, as rapid price movements can lead to impulsive decisions. Pros: Potential for quicker profits due to the high number of trades. Greater control over individual trades and the ability to adapt to changing market conditions. Cons: Requires significant time commitment and constant monitoring of markets. Highly susceptible to emotional trading due to the fast-paced nature. Amplified risk of losses due to the potential use of leverage. 3. The Leverage Trader: Magnifying Gains (and Losses) Trading Style: Leverage trading involves using borrowed capital to magnify potential profits. This can be done through margin accounts in traditional markets or through derivative instruments like options contracts. Risk Management: Leverage trading demands the utmost caution and sophisticated risk management strategies. Here's why: Losses are also magnified, meaning a small price movement against the trader's position can lead to significant capital depletion. Margin calls can force traders to sell assets abruptly to cover losses, potentially at unfavorable prices. Deep understanding of leverage mechanics and the ability to manage emotions are crucial. Pros: Potential for exponential gains with smaller initial capital. Cons: Extreme risk of catastrophic losses exceeding initial investment. Not suitable for beginners or traders with weak risk management skills. Requires a high level of financial discipline and emotional control. Remember: Regardless of your chosen trading style, effective risk management is the cornerstone of long-term success. Always prioritize capital preservation, understand your risk tolerance, and never gamble with more than you can afford to lose.
Education
by ParabolicP
2
Market Psychology: Why the Wall St. Cheat Sheet Still WorksI decided to apply the Wall Street Cheat Sheet to a chart of the S&P 500 during the Dotcom crash. It is impressive that it still works and holds so many lessons. The question you should ask yourself is, where are we now? Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. ------------------------------------------------------------- Understanding the implications of the Wall Street Cheat Sheet can be crucial for investors and traders looking to navigate the markets more effectively. It serves as a reminder of the recurring nature of market sentiment, highlighting that investor psychology tends to repeat itself in a cyclical pattern. Recognizing these patterns can help traders anticipate market movements and improve their decision-making processes. Although it's not a fail-proof guide to predicting market trends, the Wall Street Cheat Sheet is a tool that, when combined with other strategies and risk assessments, can provide insightful context to market indicators and behavior. The Wall Street Cheat Sheet encapsulates the variety of emotions investors go through during market cycles. Recognizing emotional cycles can inform risk assessment and trading strategies. The Wall Street Cheat Sheet serves as a roadmap for navigating the emotional highs and lows investors face during market cycles. Each phase reflects a collective sentiment that can influence financial markets and, subsequently, the price movement of stocks. Market cycles represent the recurrent fluctuations seen in the financial markets and can be identified through the price movements of stocks. These cycles are driven by a variety of factors such as economic indicators, corporate performance, and investor sentiment. The Wall Street Cheat Sheet encapsulates the typical emotional journey of investors through the different stages of a market cycle. The following phases are included: Hope: A period when optimism starts to grow, and investment decisions are made with the anticipation of future gains. Optimism: The phase where confidence continues to build, often leading to increased investments. Belief: This stage marks a commitment to the bullish trend, with many investors convinced of their strategy. Thrill: Investors experience a high, often accompanied by a sense of triumph. Euphoria: The peak of the cycle, where maximum financial risk is actually present but overlooked due to extreme optimism. Complacency: After reaching peaks, the sense of euphoria shifts to a state of denial once the market begins to turn. Anxiety: As market correction sets in, anxiety starts to replace complacency. Denial: Investors hold onto hope that the market will bounce back quickly, failing to acknowledge changing trends. Fear: Acknowledgment of losses sets in, and panic may ensue. Desperation: A feeling of helplessness might prevail, with investors looking for a way out. Panic: Rapid selling occurs, trying to exit positions to avoid further losses. Capitulation: Investors give up any previous optimism, often selling at a loss. Anger: The reality of financial impact hits, and investors question their decisions. Depression: Coming to terms with the financial hit and reflecting on the decisions made. Disbelief: Skepticism prevails even as the market may begin recovery, with many wary of another downturn.
CBOE:SPXEducation
by liberatedstocktrader
15
JXY seasonality In the realm of market trends and seasonality, January in the JXY index has historically exhibited a remarkable 70% bullish bias. However, the current scenario defies this pattern, with the JXY index experiencing a decline exceeding 3% until January 22, 2024. The peculiar nature of January's bullish inclination in recent years can be attributed to the pivotal TOKYO CPI (Consumer Price Index) year-on-year data release during this month. Last year, the JXY index initially faced a downward trajectory in January, only to rebound following the release of the TOKYO CPI. This led to a positive shift, ultimately yielding an approximate 1% return. As the market eagerly anticipates the unfolding events, the upcoming TOKYO CPI data release on January 23, 2024, holds the potential to significantly influence the JXY index and shape the trajectory of its performance in the immediate future.
TVC:JXYEducation
by Trade_WithOsama
Quad Witching: Mark Your Calendar for 2024Quad-witching is a phenomenon unique to the stock and options markets, occurring four times a year. It captures a flurry of activity sparked by the simultaneous expiration of four types of derivatives contracts: stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures. The third Friday of March, June, September, and December marks these critical days in the trading calendar, bringing with them distinct opportunities and challenges for investors and traders alike. Quad Witching S&P 500 Index Price Drops 2023 March -1.1% June -0.37% September -1.22% December -0.1% Average Drop 0.7% The Basics of Quad Witching Quad Witching is a critical event for anyone engaged in the stock market due to its pronounced effects on market volatility. Understanding its mechanics, significance, and impact helps investors and traders navigate the complexities of financial markets. Definition of Quadruple Witching Quadruple Witching is a term used to describe the simultaneous expiration of four types of financial derivatives: stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures. This event happens every quarter, specifically on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. It poses distinct considerations for market participants. Significance of Quadruple Witching Dates It is important for those who are involved in the financial markets to mark the calendar for Quadruple Witching Dates. These days witness increased trading activity as investors and traders adjust or close out their derivative positions. This period of adjustment is a display of strategic decision-making as market participants act to manage their investments before contracts expire. Impact on Market Volatility During Quad Witching, there is a simultaneous expiration of derivative contracts that can lead to higher trading volume and market volatility. Traders and investors need to be aware of the potential fluctuations in prices resulting from the amplified trading activity, which can significantly impact the short-term valuation of securities.
SP:SPXEducation
by liberatedstocktrader
1
APEX THREE DAY CHALLENGE: TIME AND SPACE ALGORITMIC TRADINGTook on the Apex challenge to see if i can pass in one day using Time algorithmic trading. I have the confluence on the right of DXY. looking for inefficiency to to be traded into at specific time. if the delivery is delayed there not enough amplitude in the market. Amplitude cause market displacement its volumetric delivery to the commitment of traders at there prices. This theory and concept but my documentation is real.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by TSA_TimeSpaceAlgorithm
Domination of USDT + USDC and lows/maxims of BTC. CorrelationIn the graph, combined into one graph of the dominance of such stablecoins as USDT and USDC. Orange color—chart of the bitcoin price against the dollar. The time interval is 1 week. The graph is logarithmic. The same chart and the same parameters on the candlestick chart . All BTC price lows and highs are specially shown. Compare what the capitalization of stablecoins was at the time. At an earlier time, the dominant stablecoin was one USDT, later USDC was added. They occupy a significant capitalization. BUSD and DAI are less capitalized. They too can be added to this “indicator” of the Pumps/Dumps market. I think the dominance history and the bitcoin overlay chart illustrate well which market phase and in which areas to buy and sell bitcoins and other speculative crypto coins. Centralized Stablecoin capitalization of a decentralized market . Sounds crazy, doesn't it? The dominance of centralized in a decentralized market. The 3rd,4th,6th places are naturally occupied by centralized stablecoins such as: #USDT #USDC #BUSD. This kind of decentralized cryptocurrency financial world (freedom from the dictatorship of banks, power states, and so on) did you imagine, for example, in 2015-2017? Is it good or bad? What will happen after a while? What trend will develop further after the community bait has been swallowed? 3rd place . USDT ( .... "Reds" .... ) $67,562,687,657 4th place . USDC (Circle, Coinbase, JPMorgan, Blackrock .... ) $51,726,419,583 6th place . BUSD (Binance) $20,003,320,692 13th place DAI ETH (!) BTC and ETH dominance. Continuing on this “democracy” theme of crypto sandbox capitalization. Today 14 09 2022. Market Cap: $989,560,104,72 Dominance: #BTC: 38.9% #ETH: 19.9% Total 2 assets: 58,7% Also add 3,4,6,13 top stablecoins to this. Stablecoins over 20%. Almost 60% of the market is 2 assets. Over 80% of the market is 6 assets. So much for the true mythology of decentralization ))). How to look for a “live chart” for yourself and combine the dominance of USDT and USDC: 1) Look for the MARKET CAP USDT DOMINANCE, % 2) On the right side of the chart in the search field, press the + button 3) Write MARKET CAP USDC DOMINANCE, %. For the analysis, it will also be useful to track at the same time: 1) BTC dominance 2) US dollar index (DXY, USDX) BTC dominance BTC to altcoin dominance. Stablecoin dominance and market pamp. US Dollar Index (Fed)with prices of BTC lows/maxims. Correlation of assets. DXY and PampDump BTCMarkets Cycles. This is what it looks like on a line chart to illustrate simple correlation things. Preparedness for force majeure. I would also like to say that all stabelcoins are focused on the "stability" of the U.S. dollar. Think about what would happen if, for some reason, that stability were to be undermined in the blink of an eye. Then you are faced with a very difficult choice. What to do? Sell/buy cryptocurrency/shares? Just think ahead "What do you do" if, purely hypothetically, for some fantastic, hard-to-imagine reasons this happens. Think ahead in today's calm time (are you sure it's not calm now?), so you won't be caught off guard in a turbulent time.
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.DEducation
by SpartaBTC
24
How To Find Strongest Altcoins : TutorialNavigating the world of cryptocurrencies can be like embarking on a treasure hunt, and today, we'll discuss the art of finding robust altcoins. AVAX and INJ serve as excellent examples of how to identify strong performers. Comparing AVAX with Bitcoin: When searching for strong altcoins, it's crucial to compare their performance against the market leader, Bitcoin. A compelling example is AVAX, which, during a specific period, saw a decline of 21% while Bitcoin surged by 108%. This discrepancy highlights AVAX's relative weakness during that time. INJ's Remarkable Ascent: On the other hand, INJ paints a different picture. When we compare its performance with Bitcoin, we witness an incredible 973% increase. INJ not only kept pace with Bitcoin but outpaced it significantly. This type of performance makes INJ a prime candidate for those seeking strong altcoins. The Takeaway: When hunting for strong altcoins, it's crucial to perform relative strength assessments against Bitcoin. While Bitcoin remains the benchmark, the altcoins that can surpass it or at least keep up with its pace are often the ones to watch. Trading Strategy: Comparison is Key: Continually compare altcoins with Bitcoin and monitor their relative strength over time. Risk Management: Implement sound risk management practices, especially when dealing with the crypto market's volatility. Stay Informed: Stay updated on the fundamentals and developments related to the altcoins you're considering. Conclusion: The cryptocurrency market is a dynamic landscape filled with opportunities, and identifying strong altcoins is a skill worth honing. The performance of altcoins concerning Bitcoin can provide valuable insights into their potential. As you embark on your quest for strong altcoins, remember that the crypto world is ever-evolving. Stay informed, trade wisely, and may your search lead to success. ❗️Get my 3 crypto trading indicators for FREE! Link below🔑
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by AlexWhale
1
Trade Setup with Elliot WavesThis is an example of how you can use Elliot Waves to enter a trade. The bigger wave is wave (1) which consists of 5 waves. Now, for wave (2), a WXY pattern happened in a parallel channel. It can also be called a double three pattern. Wave (2) reached 50% of wave (1). 50% - 60% is typically where corrections end. After that, we can see a sharp rise up. This is wave 1 of wave (3). We can be confirm that it is wave 1 by seeing that it broke the channel of the WXY patterns. We can use this to enter a trade at and wait for wave 3 so that we can exit.
Education
by SamaaraDas
World Wars & US Inflation From 1914This is the US Inflation Rate (YoY) from 1914 until 2022. Symbol is called USIRYY and it measures the Inflation Volatility in the United States. With the War going on in Ukraine, and Russia trying to force its way through, I took the liberty of looking into the following: - How Global Wars Affect Inflation - How US Inflation Reacts to External Wars - How Wars Affect the Financial Markets You can see the time-lines, it's all laid-out in the chart (graph). I took all the Major World Wars and events that significantly affected, not only the US Inflation, but Inflation itself. First of all, the US Inflation Rate (USIRYY) tells me the following: * When the US was involved in a War, we can notice that the US Inflation spiked. * Most of the times when US was not involved in an External War, then Inflation dropped. That's because of War & Uncertainty Sentiment around this "terrific" word. War does not bring anything good, in fact, in only brings bad times. People die and global sentiment gets super-negative. This of course, leads to... you guessed it: Market Crash. Why? Because after or during times of War, there are Recessions and Depressions. Supply Chains are disrupted and the Global Economy falls on its face. What about looking at things from a Technical Analysis perspective? * Symmetrical Triangle: and the only way is UP! I will give you points which I believe are worth keeping in mind for the next Market Crash. First of all, let's be logical about this. Winter is coming and it's only gonna get worse before it gets better. As Inflation spiked to a 40y high, the higher powers intervened, in an attempt to cool the Inflation spike off. I'm talking here about the Federal Reserve (FED) ramping up the Interest Rates. This is the Effective Federal Funds Rate (FEDFUNDS). Can you see the break-out? They want to calm down Inflation, but they can't. Why? Because this is no ordinary Inflationary period, it's a long-lasting thing. One of those hyperinflation, deflation, stagflation, or whatever the heck these experts call it... :) The Volatility Index (VIX) tells me that another spike in Fear Sentiment is inevitable. I'm in love with Elliott Wave Analysis, so I labeled this next chart. This is the United States Consumer Confidence Index (USCCI) and it measures exactly what its name says, LOL. When it drops, people are freaking out. When it rises, people are optimistic and the Markets are going up. Daaaa! With all that said, what's the bottom line here? I believe that periods of terror are gonna hit us all. Are we having World War 3? Who the heck knows? All I know is that there are more pieces to this puzzle: United States 10Y Bonds (USB10YUSD) have reached the Support, and a spike bigger than the Covid Pandemic has started: The 10Y Treasury Note Yield (TNX) have broken out of a 40y down-trend: Isn't it ironic how it synced with the Inflation 40y high? Damn! Germany 40 (DAX, GER30, GRXEUR) is doomed. Fractal sequence, Descending Channel, and a "beautiful" ABC Elliott Wave Pattern. So, how can you prosper from all this? Metals could be a good hedge. Gold (XAUUSD) just broke out of an important Bearish Structure. Maybe it will go up. Natural Gas (NG1!) & Crude Oil (USOIL) however, are showing Bearish Reversals. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is Bearish until further notice as well. But this may become the new currency moving forward. In times of terror, the banking systems might need to change. Cash and Card is so '00. WHAT'S YOUR TAKE? WAR OR PEACE? Leave your commend down below. Cheers! Richard
ECONOMICS:USIRYYEducation
by Lionheart-EWA
5
SMC Trading Basics. Change of Character - CHoCH In the today's post, we will discuss one of the most crucial concepts in SMC - Change of Character. Change of Character relates to market trend analysis. In order to understand its meaning properly, first, we will discuss how Smart Money traders execute trend analysis. 🔘 Smart Money Traders apply price action for the identification of the direction of the market. They believe that the trend is bullish , if the price forms at least 2 bullish impulse with 2 consequent higher highs and a higher low between them. The market trend is considered to be bearish , if the market forms at least 2 bearish impulses with 2 consequent lower lows and a lower high between them. Here is how the trend analysis looks in practice. One perceives the price action as the set of impulse and retracement legs. According to the rules described above, USDCAD is trading in a bullish trend because the pair set 2 higher lows and 2 higher highs. 🔘Of course, trends do not last forever. A skill of the identification of the market reversal is a key to substantial profits in trading. Change of Character will help you quite accurately identify a bullish and bearish trend violation. 📉In a bearish trend , the main focus is the level of the last lower high. While the market is trading below or on that, the trend remains bearish . However, its bullish violation is a very important bullish signal, it is called a Change of Character, and it signifies a c onfirmed violation of a bearish trend. In a bearish trend , CHoCH is a very powerful bullish pattern. Take a look, how accurate CHoCH indicated the trend reversal on Gold. After a massive selloff, a bullish breakout of the level of the last lower high confirmed the initiation of a strong bullish wave. 📈In a bullish trend , the main point of interest is the level of the last higher low . While the price is trading above that or on that, the trend remains bullish . A bearish violation of the last higher low level signifies the violation of a current bullish trend. It is called a Change of Character, and it is a very accurate bearish pattern. Take a look at the example on Dollar Index below. In a bullish trend, bearish violation of the last higher low level quite accurately predicted a coming bearish reversal. Change of Character is one of the simplest, yet accurate SMC patterns that you should know. First, learn to properly execute the price action analysis and identify HH, HL, LL, LH and then CHoCH will be your main tool for the identification of the trend reversal. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
7
Wyckoff Accumulation & DistributionThe Wyckoff Method, pioneered by Richard Wyckoff, a prominent figure in the early 1900s stock market, remains a powerful technical analysis-based trading approach. This article delves into the intricacies of the Wyckoff Accumulation and Distribution phases, fundamental to this method. Who was Richard Wyckoff? Richard Wyckoff, a highly successful American stock market investor of his time, stands as a pioneer in technical analysis. He transitioned from accumulating personal wealth to addressing what he perceived as market injustices, devising the Wyckoff Method to empower traders against market manipulation. Through various platforms like his own Magazine of Wall Street and Stock Market Technique, Wyckoff disseminated his insights. The Wyckoff Method: Wyckoff proposed that markets undergo distinct phases: Accumulation and Distribution. These phases guide traders on when to accumulate or distribute their positions, forming the core of the method. The Wyckoff Accumulation Phase: This phase materializes as a sideways, range-bound period subsequent to a prolonged downtrend. During this stage, significant players seek to establish positions without causing dramatic price drops. The accumulation phase comprises six integral components, each serving a vital role: Preliminary Support (PS): As signs of the downtrend ending emerge, high volume and wider spreads surface. Buyers initiate interest, suggesting the end of selling dominance. Selling Climax (SC): Characterized by intense selling pressure and panic selling, this phase represents a sharp price decline. Often, price closes well above the lowest point. Automatic Rally (AR): Late sellers experience a reversal, driven by short sellers covering positions. This phase sets the upper range limit for subsequent consolidation. Secondary Test (ST): Controlled retesting of lows with minimal volume increase indicates potential reversal. Spring: A deceptive move resembling a downtrend resumption, designed to deceive and shakeout participants. Last Point of Support, Back Up, and Sign of Strength (LPS, BU, SOS): Clear shifts in price action mark the transition into the range's start. A rapid, one-sided move signifies buyer control, often following the spring. Wyckoff Distribution Cycle: Following Accumulation, the Wyckoff Distribution phase unfolds. This cycle consists of five phases: Preliminary Supply (PSY): Dominant traders initiate selling after a notable price rise, leading to increased trading volume. Buying Climax (BC): Retail traders enter positions, driving further price increase. Dominant traders capitalize on premium prices to sell. Automatic Reaction (AR): The end of the BC phase brings a price drop due to decreased buying. High supply causes a decline to the AR level. Secondary Test (ST): Price retests the BC range, assessing supply and demand balance. Sign of Weakness, Last Point of Supply, Upthrust After Distribution (SOW, LPSY, UTAD): SOW signals price weakness, LPSY tests support, and UTAD might occur near cycle's end, pushing the upper boundary. Wyckoff Reaccumulation and Redistribution Cycles: Reaccumulation occurs during uptrends, as dominant traders accumulate shares during price pauses. Redistribution, during downtrends, begins with sharp price rallies as short sellers capitalize. Dominant traders strategically enter positions during these rallies. Wyckoff's Foundational Concepts: Law of Supply and Demand: Prices rise when demand is high and supply is low. Prices fall when supply is high and demand is low. Balanced supply and demand lead to stable prices. Law of Cause and Effect: Price changes are driven by specific underlying factors. Price rises result from accumulation phases, while drops arise from distribution phases. Law of Effort vs. Result: Trading volume should match price movement. Deviations signal potential shifts in market sentiment or upcoming opportunities. The Wyckoff Method is relevant to all markets, including cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, where supply and demand play a crucial role in influencing price movements.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALEducation
by Vestinda
1
KPR Mill Limited - Reaccumulation Review► Phase of reaccumulation begins with a buying climax, wherein the previous rally takes a halt. ► Then a drop is seen which goes to the automatic reaction where other buyers jump in as they see value in the stock. ► After AR, a secondary test happens where another round of selling happens. ► AR and ST define the range of the reaccumulation. Note- at this point we are still not clear whether this is a distribution of reaccumulation. ► Then a spring occurs (optional). This is where weak hands are thrown away from the reaccumulation. ► In between support and resistance, creek occurs where price moves in neither direction doing time-pass here and there. ► Once the resistance is broken, we see big volumes at the LPS - last point of support. This is where we can confirm it is a reaccumulation phase. This material shows schematics of reaccumulation phase and is only for educational purposes. Please consider taking professional advise from your financial advisor before entering any positions. Please like and share if you find the material useful.
NSE:KPRMILLEducation
by Market-Thalaivaa
Boom And Bust Cycle of BitcoinGreetings, esteemed members of the @TradingView community and all Vesties out there! The financial markets is a complex and dynamic arena where investors seek to capitalize on opportunities and generate profits. One recurring phenomenon in the financial world is the "boom and bust cycle", characterized by periods of rapid asset price escalation followed by sudden and often dramatic declines. Understanding this cycle is crucial for investors to make informed decisions and navigate market volatility effectively. In this article, we will delve into the life cycle of a bubble within the context of the financial markets, using the Bitcoin price chart as a compelling example. Additionally, we will explore how Bitcoin's circulating supply contributes to its perceived value. The Anatomy of a Bubble: A bubble refers to a speculative phase during which the prices of assets, such as stocks or cryptocurrencies, soar to unsustainable levels fueled by investor euphoria, media hype, and the fear of missing out (FOMO). These bubbles are often followed by a sharp correction or crash, resulting in significant losses for those caught up in the frenzy. The cycle typically consists of four key phases: a) Stealth Phase: Prices begin to rise slowly, driven by fundamental factors or innovative breakthroughs. Initial interest is limited, and only a few astute investors take notice. b) Awareness Phase: Media coverage and public attention increase as prices gain momentum. More investors start to notice the rising prices and may begin to invest, contributing to further price appreciation. c) Mania Phase: FOMO sets in as a growing number of investors rush to buy the asset, driving prices to astronomical heights. Speculative behavior dominates, and valuations become detached from underlying fundamentals. d) Blow-Off Phase: The bubble reaches its peak, and prices begin to plummet as profit-taking and panic selling ensue. The market experiences a rapid decline, erasing gains made during the boom phase. Bitcoin's Boom and Bust Cycle Example: Bitcoin, the pioneering cryptocurrency, has experienced multiple boom-bust cycles since its inception. One particularly notable example is the bubble of 2016-2017-2018 period: a) Stealth Phase: Bitcoin's price had been steadily increasing due to growing interest and adoption within the tech and financial communities. b) Awareness Phase: Media coverage intensified, drawing mainstream attention to the soaring Bitcoin prices. Retail investors started entering the market. c) Mania Phase: The price skyrocketed to nearly $20,000 per Bitcoin, fueled by widespread FOMO. New investors poured money into the market, believing the rally would continue indefinitely. d) Blow-Off Phase: The bubble burst, and Bitcoin's price tumbled, ultimately losing over 80% of its value. Many inexperienced investors who bought at the peak faced substantial losses. The Role of Bitcoin's Circulating Supply: Bitcoin's circulating supply, the total number of coins available for trading in the market, plays a crucial role in shaping its perceived value. The scarcity of Bitcoin is often cited as a driving factor behind its price appreciation. With a fixed supply of 21 million coins, the principle of supply and demand suggests that as demand for Bitcoin increases, its price should rise over time. a) Halving Events: Approximately every four years, Bitcoin undergoes a "halving" event, where the rate at which new Bitcoins are mined is cut in half. This scarcity-inducing mechanism further accentuates the notion of limited supply, potentially driving up prices. b) Investor Perception: Investors often view Bitcoin as a store of value and a hedge against traditional financial markets. As this perception grows, demand for Bitcoin increases, putting upward pressure on its price. Understanding the life cycle of a bubble is essential for investors to make informed decisions and mitigate the risks associated with market volatility. By examining the case of Bitcoin's boom and bust cycle and considering the impact of its circulating supply, we gain valuable insights into how market dynamics and human behavior can shape asset prices. As the financial world continues to evolve, these lessons remain relevant, serving as a reminder of the importance of rational investment strategies and a clear understanding of market fundamentals.
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by Vestinda
6