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Economic Cycles

Major Mayer Multiple Example #1Since the chart of the script (indicator) changes on each update this Idea Is an Example on how the Major Mayer Multiple can be used with default values. This indicator is obviously a lagging indicator and it shouldn't be used alone nevertheless we can clearly see how it can be used to somehow detect larger cycles but also minor ones if each setting is properly adjusted. More about this indicator: With some changes we can even achieve things like this... cryptok.eu
BNC:BLXEducation
by XNS01
1300,3000,200k,750k?I'll just leave it here. It doesn't matter how low it will fall, 1300-1800, 3000-3300. Wait for another 5 years, in exponential projection of 2017th growth/(2015-2017) recuperation related to a potential 20** growth (probably 200k+)/(2018-~2025)... Make your own calculations. The cycles are still repeating, for the last 9 years. Keep in touch people and just have patience. My SWT prognosis is still alive. I still do believe that they will make their shot, even if I lost about 16k$ with them and don't have a dime in their project invested atm. Be smart, buy at 1300-1400 (better 1400). Sell at whatever your heart wishes, at >200k$, be patient, be smart. Keep in touch with the top 10 banks announcements. 2019 is gonna be a very very interesting year.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by mythologism
Started investing early & hoping to retire? I have bad news...Alot of people that sheeply followed all the motivators, Warren Buffet included tbh, are going to be pretty disapointed. So how far can the S&P 500 go? IF the GDP rise stops slowing down, and all the issues people have ignored (burying their heads in the sand) such as pollution, old people costing more and more, obese people, people getting dumber (it's a real thing), so in other words it won't happen. But if magically the GDP stopped slowing down. IF also, in 30 years we happen to be in a bubble the likes of 2000. THEN, sure, the S&P 500 can reach 10,000 points in 30 years. So, in the most unrealisticly bullish scenario, the returns will still be far inferior to the past. The technoligical advancements made in the XXth century are the biggest ever made, do the motivational people out there really think we are going to colonize the galaxy in the next decades? That's the magnitude of what it will take to be as bullish. We went to living in mud traveling by horse and not even having tv to instantly communicating with each other anywhere on the planet, having supermarkets (ye those did not exist 80 years ago), flying planes, driving cars, geez there are so many huge ones. This will be unrivaled, maybe forever. The gdp increase compare to let's say the roman empire, what is it? 1000 times more? I have no idea but I understand why we went up so much. Warren Buffet, does he not know this? He just got lucky after all? Just think of all the changes that happened since 1900. Try to imagine how much would have to be accomplished. What more could happen to increase GDP? Make commute faster? The technology has advanced so fast people have gotten fat and lazy... We are also using up earth ressources much faster than we should if you heard... I would bet all my money on this. I am 100% sure in the next 30 years there won't be any insane bull market like in the XXth century. It is literally impossible. I do not know if I was clear. All these things we created, they made the GDP go up. They changed things in a way that can never be beaten. Going to give an example, it's not great but all I can think of right now: We went from idk let's say 5% office/intellectual jobs 45% agriculture 50% industry (random numbers) to 75% 10% 15%. We cannot make another increase of 70% in office jobs. Max is 100 total. Well, we can, with robots, but... whatever you get what I mean. We went from going around the world in 80 days at best to a few hours. We cannot make such a leap in the time it takes to go around the world, as time travel is IMPOSSIBLE. We went from like 5 babies out of 8 dying to 0.01 out of 2... Not much room for progress here... I'm not super clean in what I say, but I think people that read this understood. You might have heard that based on historical evidence, you could retire with 1 million $ invested in the stock market (adjusted for inflation) in any 30 years window back in the XXth / most of the XXth century, as long as you only withdrew 30.000/40.000 $ a year. Well, past performance is not indicative of future performance. I can even almost guarentee to you that it will not work. It's like anything that used to work of the masses heard about, simply stops working. Does not mean investing is not good. But increases closer to what I think is the "average" of what it normally does (remind me to check prices in the 18th 19th century, as well as greek roman persian japan india etc estimated GDP back centuries ago). Maybe goes up like in 1870-1920? That 1930-2000 period. Are you serious? Warren Buffet is a noob lol. All he has seen his whole life is a bull market. He has never tasted anything else than a massive overly bullish market. He has lived when the biggest advances in human history were made. We fly aorund the world in planes are you serious? Man has literally dreamed about this for hundreds of thousands of years. We (well NA EURO OCE Japan) NEVER GO HUNGRY (unless we have shitty parents). We went to the moon! Let's say we land a man on mars now, so what? Not going to mean much compared to what has been done already... Mark my words. It's all going to slow down.
DJ:DJIEducation
by MrRenev
1
FINANCIAL MARKETS AND BUSINESS CYCLEIt is important to understand that primary trends of stocks, bonds, and commodities are determined by the attitude of investors during unfolding of events in the business cycle. An understanding of the interrelationship of credit, equity, and commodity markets provides a useful framework for identifying major reversals in each. MARKET MOVEMENTS AND BUSINESS CYCLE The bond market is the first financial market to begin a bull phase. This usually occurs after the growth rate in the economy has slowed down considerably from its peak rate, and quite often is delayed until...CONTINUE READING: tradersworld.co.in
TVC:IXICEducation
by Vashisht_CFTe
Daily crypto hate: Cyclical market cycles. A bull within a bear?Hi, crypto hater back to spread more FUD. As you know, I do not care much for facts, and am mainly motivated by hate. I hate crypto so much. And oh how lucky I am to almost always buy at the bottom only (I hate crypto so much I do not consider buying if it is not the local low) and short right before dumps (due to incontrable extreme hate SHORT IT TO THE GROUND - cannot help it). :D Anyway, I already posted this chart around 6 months ago, in the form of a "ridiculous troll" Elliot Wave count: One of these trendlines will be tested in the next days or weeks innevitably: Even if we break bullish this does not mean we are going to ath and bear is over, in the same way breaking the brown line does not means crypto is over and we are going straight to 0. These are the support areas: Also, when we look at moving averages, my view is confirmed. Look at what happened when we visited the weekly moving averages for the first time: Now, look at the monthly chart: We now see more clearly how we can easilly get a 6 months bull market when those get visited. About the trendline getting broken but still holding, let me show you this example: We spent so much time in complacency, gong down would be so violent. I would say the highest support area has a low chance of holding (I think there is going to be a short lived bounce and I will trade that), while the one that will be the start of a bull market with high odds is the one around 3000: The bull market could end after around 6 months when BTC gets to test the trendline as resistance and rejects it violently, maybe... For the part where complacency duration depends on the market participants... - FX is made of investment bankers and the best traders in the world right (mostly in hedge funds)? There is pretty much no complacency. - Stocks are made of the public (the more sophisticated part of it, does not mean they are that good, just less bad than average Joe perhaps) and institutions. With stocks we saw 6 months of "we just need to cool off for the next rally" - Crypto is similar to stocks now, just a little worse IQ-wise: - Shiny pet rocks which mostly prehistoric "people" (can they even be considered human) are interested in? Guess what - Oil market, made of big companies and pro's? Can this really be just a coincidence? Or simply dumber people take longer to sell and "buy the dip" as popular crypto enthusiasts tell them too? Learn more about market cycles here: google.com :) Most of what you will find probably will be about stocks, it might be different for crypto, but the general idea remains the same.
BNC:BLXEducation
by MrRenev
8
Bitcoin - Sacred GeometryMade for observation and study purposes. This is one of the most fascinating charts I have ever created. Markets are geometric in design and function, therefore, I always tend to stick with geometric principles and not limit myself to using straight lines only. The following chart - is concentrated on time study. You will be astonished to see it in action. I made it 4 months ago and been closely observing it throughout this period. The law of cause and effect states that every cause has an effect and every effect becomes the cause of something else. Every action has a reaction or consequence - as I am sure you will agree. It is one of the universal laws and can be applied anywhere. Fibonacci spirals can be used in a wide range of different ways. It is a ratio coded by the same formulas that code anything from the atom, to the biggest cluster of galaxies and anything in between. I have seen many traders in the past who applied Fib spirals in order to identify potential supports / resistances / trends etc by choosing specific extreme data points on the trend. However, there is no concrete theory behind applying Fibonacci spirals , but generally speaking - past “extreme” or important market events is something you gotta look for when applying these. This chart is based on past “extreme” market events which provide us with new data, most importantly where and when the future turning points can be expected. In order to construct this chart, I chose ATH as the point A - (where the golden ratio is emanating out of the center) to be connected with other major events from the past. As the two points are generated - the golden ratio is being increased in width of points along the spiral from the center by multiplying the width by a Fib ratio for every quarter turn. The extent of the spiral then gives us a time frame where the future effect from previous cause can happen (this has been back-tested and the accuracy is impressive). Here are some of the approximate key dates for Bitcoin: 17/11/2018 12/12/2018 20/01/2018
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by SECCommission
2
BTCUSD Models of continuation. Triangles.BASIC MODELS OF THE CONTINUATION OF THE TREND’S MOVE Graphic configurations which will be studies in this chapter are called the models of the trends continuation. These models usually mean that the period of the price stagnation indicated on the graph is just a pause in the main trend development and that the direction of the trend will be the same after they end. The second criterion between the fracture and continuation models is the duration of their formation. The construction of the first ones, which display serious changes on the price dynamics, require more time. The second ones are shorter. It is better to call them short-term and intermediate. Note how often we use the word “usually”. This is due to the fact that the interpretation of graphic models is subject, rather, to general patterns than to rigid rules. There are always exceptions in it. Even the elementary classification of price models is sometimes difficult. There are always exceptions in it. Even the elementary classification of price models is sometimes difficult. Typically, triangles are models of continuation of the trend, but at times they show a fracture of the trend. Although triangles are usually considered intermediate models, they sometimes appear on long-term graphs reflecting the development of the main trend. A variation of the triangle - an inverted triangle - usually means a fracture of the main upward trend. At times, even the "head and shoulders" - the most famous basic model of a fracture - may indicate a phase of consolidation TRIANGLES We will begin a discussion of patterns of continuation of the trend with consideration of triangles. There are three types of triangles - symmetrical, ascending and descending (sometimes called the fourth kind, known as the "expanding triangle" or "broadening formation," but it will be considered below). All triangles differ in shape and have different prognostic functions. SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE A symmetrical triangle or "spiral" is, usually, a continuation of the trend. It marks a pause in the already existing trend, after which the latter resumes. An example of a bullish symmetrical triangle. Note the two converging lines. The model ends when the closing price is fixed on the market outside of any of the two trend lines. The vertical line on the left is the base of the model, and the point on the right where the two lines meet is the vertex. The minimum requirement for each triangle is the presence of four control points. To hold the trend line, as we remember, two points are always needed. Thus, in order to draw two converging trend lines, each of them must pass through at least two points. The completion of the triangle model takes some time, which is determined by the point of convergence of the two lines that is the top of the model. Usually, the price breakout should be in the direction of the previous trend, at a distance of half to 3/4 of the width of the triangle horizontally. The ASCENDING AND DISCENDING TRIANGLE Ascending and descending triangles are a kind of symmetric but have different prognostic functions. The figure below shows an example of an ascending triangle. Note that the top line of the trend is horizontal, and the bottom line is up. This model means that buyers are more active than sellers. Such a model is considered to be a bullish one and usually ends with a price breakout beyond the upper line. This model is completed when the closing price goes beyond the upper trend line significantly. A breakthrough must be accompanied by a sharp increase in volume. The upper resistance line turns into a support level with subsequent price drops. The minimum price benchmark is determined by measuring the height of the triangle (AB) and projecting this distance up from the breakout point C. The descending triangle model is a mirror reflection of the ascending triangle and is often considered a bearish model. Have a look at the downward upper line and horizontal bottom line on the picture below. This configuration which indicates that the more active the sellers are than the buyers usually ends with the future price drop. Completion of the model usually occurs with the closing price going beyond the lower trend line crucially and is accompanied by an increase in volume. Sometimes this is followed by a price return which meets resistance on the lower trend line. The measurement procedure for this model is exactly the same as for the ascending triangle. You should measure the height at the bottom on the left side of the model, and then project the distance down from the breakout point.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by EXCAVO
41
Real Price vs Heikin Ashi PriceHi! This is just a quick study for my own curiosity. It maps out the real world closing price vs the Heikin Ashi closing price. I think I'll make the indicator a mainstay of my trading charts, as it's useful to see. It also makes manual backtesting more viable. Some interesting observations: Long-term average difference between real world closing and HA closing ranges from 1 - 4 pips. There are intermittent spikes of up to 10 - 12 pips. These happen fairly infrequently (depending on the time frame being viewed). On average, HA prices are closer than I thought to real world prices. I would have expected an average greater than 1 - 4 pips. Spikes in difference often signify important points. Primarily they seem to signify new or continued trend activity in the relevant direction, but sometimes they can indicate tops or bottoms. Could be interesting to try and build a strategy around it. I'm not sure if I'll publish the Real Price indicator (it's literally just a few lines of code), but let me know if you want a copy of it. Cheers, DreamsDefined
Education
by DreamsDefined
3
Daily crypto hate: the 50% ruleI do not know if this is even known by anyone but me XD Well here you have it, there is a 50% rule in markets. Enjoy. This does not tell you where the bottom is, just when to start considering investing. It is simply one of the MANY conditions. Could go 50% below, could go 5% below, could go 100% below! Nasdaq example: Gold: the champion of human greed. Do we have to take inflation into account? XD Silver example: General electric: et cetera Bitcoin by the way :) For now sadly there is no way to tell with great certitude where the top will be, 7400 8000 9000 12000 even, maybe even more! There is no way to simply bet on Bitcoin going down, so all we have is shorts that every one wants to see get liquidated...Pretty bad... One could slowly short it with no stop loss progressively, more as a hedge to go long when it reaches support than as a profitable trade thought. Idk maybe we get large divergence on the daily chart... At 7400$ there are many reasons to think it will be the top that is far from 99% sure. Sucks. I wonder if dormant wallets with billions of dollars worth of crypto on them being reactivated is a good or bad sign? :/ This is the trendline I mentionned:
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by MrRenev
13
Making 112%+ Divergence Trading Bitcoin Long TermToday we have a fun one because I love making money. There is nothing better than nailing down an awesome trade and today I am going to teach you about something called 'divergence'. It might seem a bit complicated at first but it will be well worth it. As you can see in the BITFINEX:BTCUSD chart above, the prediction is stupid accurate. The Basics You are going to notice that I have a few lines drawn on the chart above and they tell you buy/sell scenarios. The return you would have had by simply following this would be INSANE! So I want you to keep an eye on it in the future. Here is what you need to know: (Disclaimer: Trading is never perfect. I am not saying there are not scenarios that are exceptions to the rules I am about to talk about. What I am saying is this stuff is gold and will make you money...so pay attention) So divergence can be done with any indicator but today I am using the RSI. Bullish Divergence (aka when to Buy): When the price created a lower low but the RSI creates a higher high - So you can see at all the 'buy' points the price of COINBASE:BTCUSD is making a lower low but the RSI indicator is making a higher high. Bearish Divergence (aka when to SELL): When the price created a higher high but the RSI creates a lower low - So you can see at all the 'sell" points the price of COINBASE:BTCUSD is making a higher high but the RSI indicators is making a lower low. Right now COINBASE:BTCUSD looks good based on divergence! It is moving in that positive direction and the price and RSI are both making higher highs. I will keep you updated on this thread for new developments. Oh yeah, before I forget...this can be used on short time frames! Be smart with it but it can be SUPER powerful. Let me know if you have any questions or need any help. Cheers!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by UnknownUnicorn1542001
5
Daily crypto hate: the old models have to be updated.Hi :) I love doing those. Crypto is different, "true believers" are right, so we must adapt the wall street cheat sheet to it. Here is how it looks like adapted to crypto. Keep a good eye on this trendline, that dates back to MtGox: It will be at 6000-7000$ by the end of the year, so sooner or later we will have to test it. Bitcoin cannot stay stuck in complacency in the same area forever. I got the idea for this post in wallstreetbets discord, with this picture someone posted: cdn.discordapp.com This is it for today's dose of "hate" towards crypto.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by MrRenev
9
Daily crypto hate. The basics: nothing is free.Back with an educational post to spread the hate! Grrr how I hate crypto I am so angry that I got into trading and soon do not have to work anymore. I have to bring balance back to the force. Crypto sentiment has to get back to reasonable levels. All this ridiculous fanatical love for crypto has to end, and it will end. Everyone, but in particular anyone that wants to get into finance, should know the riskier (in apparence) an investment is, the greater their returns will be. And if an investment main purpose is wealth preservation 100% bullet proof, then the returns will be small. Applies to Bitcoin, back in the early days, talk about it to random beer belly dude in the road he'll laugh at your face and call it a nerd/geek thing. Remember late 2017 the stories about beer belly bar owners that invested in crypto and were accepting it as payment? We got to the other extreme where every beer belly random dude that didn't even go to school thinks he knows how things work and is persuaded crypto is the "next big thing". Every one is SOOO persuaded it is the future and will 100% be used. I was working for a bank recently, and in our internal newsletter we had messages saying that "Ok so obvioulsy crypto will be the new currency, there is no doubt about that, but which one? We think it will be issued by governemnts bla bla bla". EVERY ONE thinks he is a visionary (10 years after the thing is created...). EVERY ONE thinks crypto is this "huge revolution". Well guess what? It is not. It will fall, and all these people are going to start thinking very very negatively of it. I will be the FIRST ONE to tell you when we get to excessive negativity (some worthless crypto's can never reach a point where the negativity is excessive: it would have to be infinite as their value is truly 0). NOTHING IS FREE. If something is free, then it will get noticed and the rentability will go down suddenly. The more risk there is, the higher the payout. The safer it is, the lower the returns. Take that home. Every one thinks crypto is a FAD and a joke and it is almost certain you will lose your money = incredible reward. Every one thinks crypto is awesome and will change the world and you will become rich = garbage reward. NEGATIVE reward even (you lose money). Applied to trading Forex and Commodities: if you join a trend early, you will get big returns, BUT you will often be wrong, high risk high reward. If you join a confirmed trend late, your risk is much lower, but your profit too. So pick your favorite (or both) and/or decide where you prefer it, the "optimal" point where risk is low enough and returns big enough for you. This is why we can see clearly traders have a use, other than bringing liquidity to the market, it is pushing tradable instrument into reasonable levels, either by going long when they are too low, or selling when too high. See? We are not totally useless :) And this is also yet another reason why Bitcoin priced a few hundred dollars makes the most sense: it spent years at that price, when people were being more reasonable about it. It was not this "mad scientist" thing anymore. You could talk about it without looking like a nutcase living in mum basement with an aluminium hat. 500$ my highest probability target long term. 5$ Litecoin. I almost forgot to bring my dose of hate that makes people cry: What do you think will happen about all the crypto's (not even talking about 90%+ ICOs that are outright scams) that were born during the big bubble of 2017? Where is their bottom? They did not exist during the "reasonable" times, so their price at that time was 0 and they have no innovator phase. I will let you figure out what that means :) www.ou.edu
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by MrRenev
8
Why and when trends failHere, using gold I demonstrated the importance of time analysis. Most of traders analyze only price action in relation to price and most of indicators can do only that. However price need to be analyzed also in relation to time, as price moves in Fibonacci sequences not only in price scale but also in time as you see. And when it hits an important Fibonacci TIME extension, a trend will change direction for hours, months or years depending on timeframe. With these tools you can analyze time action: Fibonacci time extensions Fibonacci time zones Fibonacci arcs Fibonacci circles Fibonacci fans Pitchfork fan Gann fan, Gann angles (to place Gann fan you have to LOCK scale. Then put 45 degree angles. Angle 1-1 has to run by 45 degrees). Gann boxes Cyclical oscillators, CG Oscillators (Center of Gravity as Fisher, Ehler's CG) How to draw Fibonacci Time extensions - traditonally, time cycles are measures from LOWEST LOW to LOWEST LOW. You find 2 lowest lows and drag Fibonacci time extension tool between them and then drag back the third line to the first low where you started. Then you have Fib time extensions from the second lowest low that you connected, into the future. Its important, it has to be absolute lowest low. If you do it on weekly, zoom to daily and place the end on absolute daily low. Fibonacci Time zones. You place 1 on lowest low wig, 2 has to fall on the next candle. Best to do it on daily. 1 candle -1 time zone unit.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDEducation
by ICFX
1
Quick post. It is all just the same don't you see...We are only in the early phase of step 2... Can you see it? Markets are governed by fundamentals and psychology. Crypto fundamentals are non-existant, hence it all makes sense, they are fully governed by psychology. Does not matter if we go up or down, it's all the same. And the exact same people that were in disbelief in the early stages of it going up are now in disbelief and starting to slowly realise the bull market might be over. First, the shitcoins will go to zero, then the big ones will follow and go very low. Not $3000 Bitcoin, nono, not $2000 Bitcoin, not $1000... This is really good, from this guy twitter twitter.com "How bear markets end: 1) worst fundamental cos capitulate 2) broad market capitulates 3) best fundamental cos capitulate. at #altcoins like $XRP we‘re closer to 1), maybe 2). You think #bitcoin seen bottom=you believe manipulators keep artificially high or in for surprise $BTC" The thing is, he is wrong about where we are .... Ripple is not at 1 yet... This crash has not even begun yet! There is much much more downside coming next. It will take way more time, this is only just the beginning. Most people barely even started to realize we are in a bear market. Everything is the same, it goes up, it goes down, the reactions are the same, in parallel. Bull market: 1. Early stages = disbelief "nah it won't go up this is a sucker rally" 2. Hope "maybe..." 3. Optimism "Time to get fully invested" 4. Euphoria climax "I am a genius!" (says man from netherlands that sold everything to buy crypto and now lives in the woods with his family) + fools probably buy on leverage. Bear market: 1. Early stages = disbelief "the weak hands got shaken out, here is my CONSERVATIVE 50.000$ target for 2018" 2. Opposite of hope "maybe..." 3. Pessimism "I better sell before I lose everything" 4. Despair climax "I am an idiot!" And so, at the very end of the cycle they finally get it right and realise they are idiots... Know what? I actually prefer my own version to the "official" ones.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by MrRenev
46
Risk on/Risk off, XLY:XLP ratios, THE Real money flow indicator.Was recently shown this little gem of a ratio chart that will help gauge strength to certain markets such as the stocks and other financial instruments as the S&P, Dow Jones etc So what does it all mean?? The ratio of two diametrically opposed asset classes often provides insightful clues about what investors are doing. The XLY:XLP ratio is a perfect example. Its not a hypothetical as it uses real money data based on what investors are DOING and NOT what they maybe thinking or projecting... XLY represents the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF. XLP represents the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF. XLY is the ETF which tracks the consumer discretionary sector XLY’s top 5 holdings are... Comcast (CMCSK), Walt Disney (DIS), Amazon.com (AMZN), Home Depot (HD), McDonald’s (MCD). XLP tracks the consumer staples sector, with top holdings of... Procter & Gamble (PG), Coca-Cola (KO), Philip Morris (PM), Wal-Mart (WMT), CVS Caremark (CVS). So how does this affect markets? When the chart value rises its a clear indicator that people are happy to spend freely and without caution, investors will look to increase risk, where as if the value starts to go down and decline, people are spending more on everyday essential items and thus stock markets are in shrinkage, decline and investors are taking LESS risk. we can clearly see how this chart reflects current highs on the stock indices if we compare to the current S&P500, Russel, Dow Jones and so on If this article has helped or you have any further questions, please leave them in the comments below.....
AMEX:XLYEducation
by majorlee
1
Trading Strategy for Parabolic Markets [Part 1]I recently watched this podcast with Tone Vays. Tyler Jenks was the guest and he started out by saying: "This is the greatest opportunity I have seen in financial markets." It just so happens that I have been studying parabolic theory as it relates to hyperwaves. I am using that information to develop a trading strategy that is aimed towards capitalizing on parabolic moves. I will be using Tyler Jenks' hyperwave and consensio theories, Welles Wilder’s RSI, ADX and Parabolic SAR indicators, as well as Parabolic theory from Spyfrat’s Call. The TD' Sequential and Ichimoku Clouds will also be used to a much smaller degree. Below I have outlined the indicators/theories that are being used, my approach to entries, four options for a trailing stop loss in a parabolic market and a rudimentary price target calculation. If you are not interested in the minutia of my approach then feel free to skip straight to part 2 where positions will be outline. I have identified 5 stocks that are currently in a parabolic state and one that is primed to start one. Entries, stop losses and risk:reward calculations are provided for each. Three strategies for implementing trailing stop losses have also been included. Consensio Used to identify bull and bear markets. If price is above the MA’s and the shorter term MA’s are all above the longer term MA’s then it is a bull market. If the price is below the MA’s and the shorter term MA’s are below the longer term then we are in a bear market. Hyperwave Parabolic Burst Continuation 30-prd RSI is used rather than the more commonly used 14-prd RSI If 30-prd RSI reaches 70 level, stock is in parabolic status The best setup is when both Weekly RSI and Daily RSI reach 70 with the weekly RSI > Daily. If both weekly and daily RSI are in parabolicy state but the daily RSI overtakes the weekly RSI the asset is said to be in a ‘Parabolic High Risk’ (PSR') state. Indicates that asset is at a high risk of a major correction (paraburst) If both weekly and daily RSI > 80 (regardless if w > d), the asset is said to be in ‘Extreme Parabolic High Risk’ (ePHR) state. Source ADX and DI ADX measures the strength of the trend. If < 20 then no trend exists. If > 25 then strength of trend is building. Horizontal lines can be drawn on the ADX to indicate when the move is becoming exhausted. Plus Directional Indicator (+DI) and Minus Directional Indicator (-DI), together these measure trend direction. If +DI > -DI then trend is bullish. If +DI < -DI then trend is bearish. Crossover in the -DI and +DI can indicate a change in the market trend. Entries I will always line out a minimum of three entries. That is because I believe in entering into positions in thirds or fourths, only adding when the price moves in my favor. This allows me to minimize risk and emotional decision making. Trailing Stop Losses Bill Williams Fractals - Set slightly under most recent down fractal (if long). Parabolic SAR - Set slightly under most recent weekly SAR' or slightly under the previous 2 daily SARs. ADX - If > 50 on weekly and/or > 60 on daily RSI - If weekly and daily are > 80 Price Targets This is still a work in progress. I have noticed that each phase tends to go +90% - +95% from prior phases high. That can be used to give us a rough idea in order to calculate the risk:reward, however there is a lot more backtesting that still needs to be done. If you have significant data about the % ROI' each phase will return on average then I would be very interested in collaborating! Now that you understand the approach be sure to check out part 2 where 5 possible possible positions are outline
NYSE:BAEducation
by Sawcruhteez
1
USDJPY, Fibonacci, and the Magical 110.025The wonders of Fibs This is USDJPY on FXCM . Left pane is Weekly chart going back to 2012. Right panels are zoomed in views of the circled areas. The Fib in left pane was drawn from the first impulse in first Quarter 2012. Each of the fib extensions shown becomes relevant later. Check the 4.0 Extension at 110.025. Not 110.000, not 100.000 but 110.025 That extension was touched once before (albeit cut though several times) That extension was touched this month (upper right) to the pip , and twice . Fascinating for several reasons: 1) The Ripples of a ''Protuberance'' that happened 6 years ago are still clearly in effect today. 2) This asset trades almost a $1 Trillion PER DAY by almost all banks around the globe. 3) Numerous conditions, people, and econs have changed a lot in the last six+ years. YET, that tiny first wave six years later still directs Trillions of Dollars and perhaps Billions of People to decide that $ 110.025 is THE number of importance Right Now . ******************************************************************************************************************** I am not religious but if there IS a God, then he/she/it will be found in/by/for the Golden Ratio. ******************************************************************************************************************** -
Education
by EuroMotif
3
USDTRY - Be wary of Intervention ex-post Rapid MovesTraders layering into TRY potentially got burnt last week as the Turkish Central Bank intervened to halt the local currency's worrying devaluation by raising interest rates by a whopping 3% Whilst i tend to let the majority of fundamental data pass me by , it often pays to atleast maintain a health awareness of key macro factors that might have a direct impact on any currency pairs you are trading or tracking (this is different to following any random commentator's subjective opinion) While I do not like setting upside targets , it can pay to trail stops at healthy profit levels during large abnormal moves so as not to give back profits (we saw this in crypto in Dec 17) adn if we miss the big move initially wait for natural pullbacks / consolidations rather than chase an entry. There will ALWAYS be a pullback or another instruments that will offer the next big move. Worst thing to do is chase an entry through FOMO , get burnt and then be paralysed the next time a big opportunity presents itself. Stay rational, stay calm and nimble
Education
by TJP_Trader
How to spot bear market. Live example.Pretty simple. 1- When we lose the important moving average's, it's an indication a bear market is possible, but by itself does not confirm the start of a bear market at all. 2- When the MA50 starts going downwards... you can start betting we're in bear market. 3- When we lost the MA100 and it starts pointing down, bear market is confirmed, but by then we already dropped alot thought. 4- Usually the faster the climb up is, the longer the bear market lasts. The more time we are in bull market, the more violent and quick the drop. Compare 2014 2017 perfect example. 5- Everything comes in wave of 3. 1rst time people don't notice, 2nd time don't really believe, 3rd time everyone with simple minds are thinking "last 2 times they said it wasn't going up/down, last 2 times it did this it keeps repeating itself, clearly I can buy/sell/join that sect/vote for that NAZI that knows how to manipulate minds. Etc. Always. *- Several factors and indicators have to point out to the same thing. It still needs an educated human eye (or hella good AI?!). Why anyone can't just use this blindy? Take this for example: But... I mean... to me it's obvious... we're not about to start a bear market when we just got out of one & people sold hard and there hasn't been any buying yet...Makes no sense.. But yeah every one doesn't see this I guess. But anyway, this is obviously not for finding signals, just getting an idea of the general trend and putting the odds in your favor. And you can use the MA's as support/resistance to long or short. when several resistances or support are at the same area it's bonus triple kill! The moving averages, especially higher numbers) are mostly viewed I believe by these wonderful people, the investors "in it for the long term", these wonderful people give us money everytime we hit one of their support or resistance. www.youtube.com This drawing (+ my evil plan ofc) gave me the idea to post this:
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by MrRenev
8