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Economic Cycles

Bearish Cycle in the MarketBearish Cycle in the Market 1) "market maker spread" is the maximum and minimum of the initial channel. This is usually 25-50 pips high. 2) "Stop Hunt" usually consists of three movements that can occur in a short time. Three impulses will be marked on the "live" candle. The end of the stop hunt results in the extreme value (LOD) of the cycle and gives the first signal of where the reversal will occur. 3) "Zone Shift" is a movement intended both for accumulation and for keeping the trading volume concluded at the maximum of the price movement. According to my observations, I can say that after the "Zone Shift" consolidation is formed, volume continues to accumulate. In these places, you can just look for an entry point. 4) A large impulse move during the initial channel may still be worked by resetting the initial channel hi / lo AFTER the move occurs and then looking for stop runs from the reset channel. 5) Correct entry in the second stage with “peak formation” will use the “zone shift” to take profit. 6) Use the bigger picture (1 hr & 4 hr time frame) to identify levels for possible entries. At the lowest level (15min), take trades ONLY from the LOD / HOD. ------------------------- Additionally: Duration of consolidation after stopping hunting before HOD / LOD Difficult to define. We do not know how long a major player will take to gain a position and we do not know how much volume he needs. A) The previously accumulated volume can be quite large, so no consolidation is required and a V-shaped bottom occurs. B) Additional time may be required to accumulate volume. C) Additional time may be required followed by the expected search for a second stop (wide W-pattern) ------------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support with likes. Thanks for your support!
Education
by DeGRAM
5
Bullish Cycle in the MarketBullish Cycle in the Market 1) Use the higher time frames to determine the direction of the trend, the boundaries of the consolidation channels, and look for the entry point on the lower time frames. 3) "Zone Shift" is a movement intended both for accumulation and for keeping the trading volume concluded at the maximum of the price movement. According to my observations, I can say that after the "Zone Shift" consolidation is formed, volume continues to accumulate. In these places, you can just look for an entry point. 4) "Stop Hunt" usually consists of three movements that can occur in a short time. Three impulses will be marked on the "live" candle. The end of the stop hunt results in the extreme value (LOD) of the cycle and gives the first signal of where the reversal will occur. 2) Correct entry in the second stage with “peak formation” will use the “zone shift” to take profit. 5) Impulse move during the initial channel may still be worked by resetting the initial channel hi / lo AFTER the move occurs. 6) The high and low of the initial channel is called the "market maker spread". This it typically 25-50 pips in height. ------------------------- Additionally: Duration of consolidation after stopping hunting before HOD / LOD Difficult to define. We do not know how long a major player will take to gain a position and we do not know how much volume he needs. A) The previously accumulated volume can be quite large, so no consolidation is required and a V-shaped bottom occurs. B) Additional time may be required to accumulate volume . C) Additional time may be required followed by the expected search for a second stop (wide W-pattern) ------------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support with likes. Thanks for your support!
Education
by DeGRAM
9
Bullish Cycle in the MarketBullish Cycle in the Market 1) Use the higher time frames to determine the direction of the trend, the boundaries of the consolidation channels, and look for the entry point on the lower time frames. 3) "Zone Shift" is a movement intended both for accumulation and for keeping the trading volume concluded at the maximum of the price movement. According to my observations, I can say that after the "Zone Shift" consolidation is formed, volume continues to accumulate. In these places, you can just look for an entry point. 4) "Stop Hunt" usually consists of three movements that can occur in a short time. Three impulses will be marked on the "live" candle. The end of the stop hunt results in the extreme value (LOD) of the cycle and gives the first signal of where the reversal will occur. 2) Correct entry in the second stage with “peak formation” will use the “zone shift” to take profit. 5) Impulse move during the initial channel may still be worked by resetting the initial channel hi / lo AFTER the move occurs. 6) The high and low of the initial channel is called the "market maker spread". This it typically 25-50 pips in height. ------------------------- Additionally: Duration of consolidation after stopping hunting before HOD / LOD Difficult to define. We do not know how long a major player will take to gain a position and we do not know how much volume he needs. A) The previously accumulated volume can be quite large, so no consolidation is required and a V-shaped bottom occurs. B) Additional time may be required to accumulate volume. C) Additional time may be required followed by the expected search for a second stop (wide W-pattern) ------------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support with likes. Thanks for your support!
Education
by DeGRAM
4
Tezos (XTZ)/USDT Market Cycles Pivot points (zones) PsychologyI have combined the idea of learning by cycles and pivot points (zones) with an actual trading idea for positional work using the example of the Tezos (XTZ) coin paired with USDT (USD). According to Dow theory, there are 3 types of trends: 1) main (long-term). 2) minor. 3) insignificant (small). 3) Phases of trends. In turn, each trend has the following phases: 1) phase of accumulation (set of position). 2) the phase of public participation (trend development) 3) panic phase (reset position). 4) the phase of price reduction (dump). 1. The phase of accumulation. (position set). This stage occurs after the market has finished the downtrend and the dump is stopped. The price has formed a "bottom", in slang they say "bottom". It is at this stage that traders and investors enter the market, which can rightfully be called professional. They have the greatest amount of information (often internal - insiders) about the current state of the market and are the first to start active actions. The rest of the market participants do not realize at this time the state and direction of the market. Of course, the accumulation phase is not easy to detect. It often follows a downtrend. And it can be, in turn, just a minor trend in the general downtrend. As a result, instead of a new trend, only a temporary pullback is obtained. From a technical point of view, the beginning of a new trend is always accompanied by a period of consolidation. This is when the market goes sideways and then starts to show an uptrend. 2. Phase of public participation (trend development). Participation Phase Advanced investors and traders enter the market in the accumulation phase. When the trend really reverses, the public participation phase begins. Here the crowd enters the market. As this stage progresses, more traders jump into the current move as fear of loss is suppressed by greed and fear of missing out on an opportunity. This phase is the longest of all and is also characterized by the most active movement. Highs are constantly being updated - exactly what investors have been waiting for. The trend is developing. When this stage begins to end, the "last majority" jumps into the market and trading volumes begin to increase significantly. At this point, the theory of great stupidity prevails. The price rises significantly beyond historical levels, and logic and reason give way to greed. While the majority enter the market, professional traders cut or close their trading positions. But as prices begin to level off or the rally slows down, those latecomers who stay out of the game see it as a buying opportunity and enter the market. Prices make the last parabolic move, known in technical analysis as a buying climax, when the greatest profits are often made in a short period. 3. Panic phase (reset position, distribution) This is the phase where experienced traders and investors exit the market, and less experienced ones, on the contrary, enter the market. As a result, these investors and traders are excited about buying at the peak of the trend, shortly before its spectacular fall. The same phase is also a reversal one - professional investors and traders understand that the market has exhausted itself and begin to close their positions opened in the first phase. To identify this phase, it is necessary to carefully study the signs that the market rally is complete. Moreover, the more active the market growth, the stronger the subsequent fall will be. In the third stage of the market cycle, sellers begin to dominate. This part of the cycle is identified by a period in which the bullish sentiment of the previous stage is replaced by mixed sentiment. When this stage is over, the market direction changes. Classic chart patterns such as "double and triple top" or "head and shoulder" are examples of such movements that occur during the distribution stage. The distribution stage is a very emotional period for the markets as investors are gripped by periods of complete fear, interspersed with hope and even greed, as at times the market may seem to be rising again. Panic phase in a downtrend. A similar story is when the main trend is bearish and goes down. The situation repeats itself in a mirror image, and at the implementation stage, a real panic is often formed, when many inexperienced investors and traders dump their assets and the price receives the last downward impulse before growth. 4. The phase of decline. (Dow did not separately identify this phase in his writings. In Dow's theory, this is the final stage of the distribution phase). The fourth and final stage in the cycle is the most painful for those who still believed in the price increase. Many are holding them because their assets have fallen below their original amount. It is only when the market is down 50% or more that many of those who bought during the distribution stage or early in the decline give up. "Faith is being killed!" For more experienced traders, on the contrary, it serves as a buy signal and is a sign that the formation of a bottom is inevitable. _____________________________ 4) Choice of cycle time. An intraday trader who trades relatively small amounts and uses 5-minute candles can see many full cycles per day, while, for example, a positional trader using a weekly or monthly timeframe charts can see several cycles per year (average liquid instruments) or an extended cycle for several years (highly liquid instruments). But he also works in relatively large amounts that are not comparable to a scalper trader. Your task is to learn how to correctly recognize market cycles on your working timeframe and use it in your trading. ___________________________________ 5) Points (zones) of price reversal. It is necessary to immediately clarify the point (zone) of the price reversal always remains a potential point (zone), because it can act as a continuation of the trend. It is just that in certain zones there is a greater likelihood of a change in price movement than in others. This is very important to understand. Work like a trader, not like a "successful" wang hamster with which the Internet is clogged. No one knows the exact future. You can identify potential more or less likely price movements and use this in your trading. It is also worth noting that it is not possible to predict everything. It is important that a large number of your forecasts for price movements, thanks to your experience and knowledge, are correctly determined. Theory without practice is zero! Only your knowledge, modernized to the reality of the market, can give results in practice.
Education
by SpartaBTC
8
Bitcoin Psycology Cheat Sheet "Popped The Bubble"Traders should print this cheat sheet out and keep it by their desks! You can save this cheat sheet using Like and Bookmark features! Reason why I wrote this post, is tremendous amounts of Bullish signals in @TradingView community, just take a look at front page and first pages of Ideas tab. IMHO this is signal of "Back to Normal" phase and we are appoaching big crash event during 2021/22. Stay safe and be humble! Best regards Artem Shevelev
Education
by ArtemFuturesTrading
75
Price action tradingWhat is Price Action Trading? Price action trading is a methodology for financial market speculation which consists of the analysis of basic price movement across time. It’s used by many retail traders and often by institutional traders and hedge fund managers to make predictions on the future direction of the price of a security or financial market. Price action trading ignores the fundamental factors that influence a market’s movement, and instead it looks primarily at the market’s price history, that is to say its price movement across a period of time. Thus, price action is a form a technical analysis, but what differentiates it from most forms of technical analysis is that its main focus is on the relationship of a market’s current price to its past or recent prices, as opposed to ‘second-hand’ values that are derived from that price history.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by alifarhani7727315
1
EDUCATION _Types of Trend. Wavelike trends.The basis of the technical analysis is the trend. It is a price movement in a certain direction. Upward trend: Trend down: Between trends, the price likes to relax in the lateral movement, when the trend itself is absent: Wavelike trends. Unfortunately, if the trends were straight as an arrow, your cat would be able to earn. However, trends rarely go straight. Usually, this is a combination of the highest and lowest levels, of which the trend consists. For example, an upward trend can often be broken down into such micro waves: In reality, the waves, of course, are not as beautiful as on the scheme, and in a smooth beautiful trend price moves rarely (although, sometimes, it happens). The next post will be about the duration of trends. Friends, push the like button, write a comment, and share with your mates - that would be the best THANK YOU.
TVC:GOLDEducation
by Yuriy_Bishko
24
Simple and effective use of Fibonacci correction levels Hello, Traders! Today I will explain how to use a trading strategy based on correctional Fibonacci levels as simple and rational as possible. Using the ZIL example, we will highlight the period from November 4 to 25, where the price has entered an uptrend. Our task is to stretch the Fib retracement from the beginning of $0.01666 until the end of the uptrend of $0.03681. We place 4 buy orders at correctional Fibonacci levels : 0.382 (0.02911) - 10% of the transaction amount 0.50 (0.02674) - 20% of the transaction amount 0.618 (0.2436) - 30% of the transaction amount 0.786 (0.2097) - 40% of the transaction amount SL should be placed under the level 0.786. In our case, it is 0.01921 $. The average price of entering the transaction, in this case, will be $ 0.2396. Thus, the stronger the price is corrected, the less the drop will be relative to the average entry price. The correction levels of Fibonacci from 0.618 to 0.0 of upward movement will be the targets. As a rule, after the correction, the price bounces from the levels and we will have an opportunity to close a deal at least without losses, and at best make a good profit. This is a very simple and effective strategy that has proven itself not only on a daily timeframe, it can also be used on shorter price movements. It can also be used on other price movements like H4 or H1 timeframes. Leave your feedback below and good luck!
Education
by UnknownUnicorn10064030
4
EURUSD: Long Term Perspective & Trend Analysis hey guys, I know that many of you are expecting a coming bearish movement on a daily on EURUSD. analyzing a weekly time frame though, I want to warn you that the pair has still much space for a bullish continuation. on a weekly, the price is clearly trading in a global bearish trend. spring's covid bullish rally made the market set a higher low and triggered a bullish rally, and it looks like a long term goal for buyers is 1.21 - 1.25 wide supply cluster. this zone is based on 2008'th, 2010'th, 2012'th lows and 2018'th high. in my view, a strong weekly bearish movement will most likely start from that area. however, what makes me extremely cautious is the recent higher low. usually, it is the first strong signal of a coming trend change. if the above-mentioned zone is broken buy buyers, It will signify a long term bearish trend violation and start of a new long term bullish trend. as always we can only speculate about the probabilities of both events. but clearly decision point is close.
Education
by VasilyTrader
10
BITCOIN EMOTIONS STRUCTURE — $100 000 per btc +644% Potential!!!Hey! Reading market emotions could be pain in ass ¯\_( 👁️ ͜ 👁️)_/¯ But what you can do about it? M arkets always flow in ups and downs, every minute emotions change so the market following well known sequence of emotions: ... Optimism — Believe — Excitement — Thrill — Euphoria — Complacency — Denial — Fear — Desperation — Panic — Capitulation — Anger — Depression — Hope — Relief ... This emotions sequence happen on all timeframes, you can find it every day and on every market/assets. Moreover this emotions people feel over and over during day and regular business and activities. I find 3 tips how to see market emotion stage: 1. Be Cold Mind — Check Twice 2. Take a Guess, but Control Risks 3. Watch Your Mood — Ask Opinions These steps can improve overall market feeling, but you have to train intuition and spend time on markets to find it's patterns. This require experience, so spend time to learn and try different things. Do not rush "all-in" if you are newbie, small is big in the trading. Peace and have good profits. Stay tuned to Artem Crypto. P.S. Bitcoin next stop could be near 100K, not joking. remember this chart? Good luck :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by ArtemFuturesTrading
22
Recency Bias With Streaks and Occurrence FrequencyIn this video idea, I discuss the idea of how to check for bias in recent events in an indicator by requiring that X of the last Y candles meet a certain condition. It is common to refer to recency bias as something that can skew your view on things based on recent events. In this case, I am referring to applying a bias to our indicator based on recent events. I show you how I go about checking for occurrence frequency to require that X of Y candles are red in this example. Specifically, we check for at least 3 red candles in the last 4 or 5 candles. By using float values to represent true or false with a 1 or 0 we can easily sum the values of the 1 or 0 on our conditions for the last Y candles. Once we get the occurrence account we can compare the occurrence that actually occurred to the number we actually required on X. We take this a step farther and show how this might be used by requiring another condition to be true on the current candle as well and plot to share when this next condition is true or false (1:0) as well.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by BigBitsIO
1
HOW TO TRADE MARKET STRUCTURE HOW TO TRADE MARKET STRUCTURE 1) WE CAN SEE THAT USDCAD HAS BEEN IN AN UPTREND MAKING HIGHER HIGHS & HIGH LOWS. THIS IS DISPLAYED WITH THE A-B-C-D MOVEMENTS 2) AT 'C' WE REACHED A KEY RESISTANCE ZONE AT 1.42500 RESULTING IN THE NEXT PHASE OF THE UPTREND TO CREATE A NEW HIGHER LOW AT D 3) AT 'D' USDCAD BEGINS THE NEXT PHASE OF OVERALL UPTREND AND ATTEMPTS TO MAKE A NEW HIGH. HOWEVER THIS UPWARD MOVE FAILS AS WE FAIL TO BREAK ABOVE 'C' & INSTEAD END WITH THE MOVE TO 'E', SIGNALLING A POTENTIAL END TO THE UPTREND 4) THE NEXT MOVE FROM 'E-F' CREATES A NEW SUPPORT LEVEL AT OUR PREVIOUS LOWER HIGH 'D' (1.41142) ZONE 5) THE NEXT MOVE FROM F-G IS AN ATTEMPT FROM BUYERS AT THE SUPPORT LEVEL CREATED FROM E-F (1.41142) TO TRY AND CONTINUE THE UPTREND HOWEVER 'G' NOW CREATES A LOWER HIGH 6) FROM G-H WE CAN SEE PRICE IS MAKING A THIRD TEST OF THE SUPPORT LEVEL AT (1.41142). A FAILURE OF THE SUPPORT LEVEL HOLDING GIVES US A GOOD ENTRY POINT TO ENTER A SELL POSITION WITH OUR PROFIT TARGET OF 105 POINTS AT 'H' (1.40000)
Education
by ezinvesting