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Economic Cycles

Good news! I found the Nokia chartSome people following me might have read about the Nokia example. Well it was here all along. The name is disgusting, it was 1 of the few I didn't try in the long list of results. No wonder I wouldn't find the right chart. Posting this idea as BTC because I want more than 3 views ;) Plus it is the one currently in an echo bubble. First let me repost the railway bubble chart: There was 3 echo bubbles, with the last 1 going higher even. I do not think this is very likely with Bitcoin, facts point to going the sugar & Nokia route. Typical echo bubble death... Let's look at the log charts: Sugar extended down 1.236. Nokia 2. An extension of 1.236 on BTC would bring the price to ~ 1000, 1.618 would be around 600 bucks. My favorite part, the linear charts years later: MoviePass, oh what an awesome scam: A couple varying examples:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by MrRenev
30
Where are all the fractals?Hello, I do not understand. I saw every day a new fractal showing that the price of ponzicoin would go up. But now, that we are in a situation exactly similar to Dec 2017, there are no fractal. That does not seem very objective... It's almost depressing, that the human gene pool contains "this". BTC went up up up until CME futures opened and then down down down. The top was the exact day when CME BTC futures were released. BTC hodlers are repeating the same thing. Exact same scenario. They are convinced BTC will go to a mighty bull market because of ICE futures. Emmm ok? I do not think I am being unfair when I say they are thick headed. Of course, I see these clowns repeat "Bakkt bakkt" I got a feeling that they do not even know what it is. The futures market is in a duopoly, CME is the biggest one, ICE the other one. CME GROUP INC ==> 73.7 Billion Market cap. (Chicago Mercantile Exchange). Big on indices, fx, metals, energy futures. Also big on certain agri (Corn Wheat Soybean). ICE GROUP INC ==> 50.95 Billion Market cap. (INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE INC). Afaik their only big futures are the "other" agri Sugar 11, Cotton, Cocoa, Coffee. (Actually the 2nd biggest futures exchange in the world is the National Stock Exchange of India and ICE is 3rd, CBOE Holdings are 4rth far behind - 12B mcap - they opened BTC futures the 7 dec 2017). The ICE is known mostly for the New York Stock Exchange. The CBOE is bigger on options I think. The big big futures exchange is the CME. They have a great site with a ton of content, their products work very well. I expect ICE futures to do less volume than the CME past the potential hype of the first days, even with all the marketing they did. BTC might pump short term (good short entry on a double top at 14k) but idk the world has their eyes on Iran and oil lmao no one important will care about your magical internet beans. I expect the launch to be a complete failure and after that nice flop the ICE will remove BTC futures just like the CBOE did, and only CME will remain. Just like with all US treasury bonds. And with all US indices. And with Oil and NatGas. And with Gold and Silver. And with Grains. And with Copper. Hehe. Here is the CME site: www.cmegroup.com They have daily volumes of about $250 million on BTC (past month). Coinbase does about $100 million, Bitstamp about $65 million, Kraken $50 million (not counting the euro part that is about as big). As a comparison, (WT Sweet Light) Crude Oil futures have volumes typically of about 1 to 1.5 million futures a day on the CME, in dollar this means, since the price of Oil is and has been around $60 - 60 million. Nah just kidding 1 future = 1000 barrels, so it's 60 billions. Idk how much brent does, they are mainly traded via the ICE, their site... I just can't... They do 20 times less I think. E-mini S&P futures do about 2 million contracts volume => 300 billion :D Gold futures make about $75 billion 10Y Treasury Notes ~ $350 billion I think (and volume oscillates a ton). 1400 times more. Natural Gas (Henry Hub) that is half as volatile as BTC (sometimes more) does ~$13 billion (not counting options and other products). 50 times more. Even Grain no one ever talks about that have 3 followers does way more than 1 million reddit subs biggest community than all stocks put together Bitcoin. These days Corn is doing ~5 billion+ Wheat ~2.5 billion Soybean ~9 billion. Rekt. And the CME is putting crypto forward. And they are the biggest. Big money is not stepping in. Big money still thinks it is a ponzi. No one that knows what they are doing cares about magical internet beans (other than to make fun of it). Even with the immense amount of hype and the massive fanbase around Bitcoin, BTC futures do tiny volumes compared to obscure products such as "RBOB Gasoline" (50 times more volume than BTC, what is this even? xd), "Soybean Oil futures" (even this does 10 times BTC) or "Live cattle" (20 times). Even Mont Belvieu LDH Propane (OPIS) Futures does more than BTC :D Does anyone know what this thing even is? LOL! NY Harbor ULSD? I have not a clue what this is, but they have 60 times the volume of giga hype every one talks about it BTC. Single stocks during the dot com bubble had more volume than BTC as we know anyway. Keep praying that suddenly big money movers are going to get interested after ignoring your ponzi scheme for years, just because the ICE offers a new way to speculate on it, and gave it its own name, and did alot of marketting. Let me quote Nelson from the Simpsons: Haha!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by MrRenev
8
MENA takeover: IntroductionEurope (and NA and JP) have been ruling the world for 700 years, ever since Fibonacci brought back the number 0 and created finance. Gunpowder helped too. Europe domination really went exponential once the stock market put people with money in relation with people with ideas, especially in UK. Before that the arabs ruled the world for a few centuries, so MENA, before that the romans (and greeks a bit) so europe, before that the carthaginians I think? so mena, before that it alternated between Egypt, the Iraq region, Turkey, Iran (persians)... India and China have always been big but actually so big they just do their thing. They're a planet by themselves I guess. Mongols conquered the world so there is that too but otherwise the military + economic + standard of living + science domination has been alternating between europe and mena. And Europe time is running out... (This includes NA). The end of an era is happening... People trying to sound smart are saying china (and sometimes india too) will take over but I doubt it. They just do their thing, they always have. I do not think it is highly probably. Ye sure their gdp probably keeps going up but their culture etc won't dominate. They could go into complete isolation (again). Do they even need the outside world that much tbh xd ps: poor hong kong. rip. This is just an intro, there are plenty of reasons that show us what is happening (including inflation and all that scammy nonsense). 1 thing I really like is "biohistory" it's a new subject they have a couple of videos on youtube I recommend watching them. North Africa has seen the arab revolutions about 10 years ago, so they have started leaving the middle ages (finally). It takes time but... In the 70s the shah of Iran turned the country from middle ages into a regional superpower (some say he got too ambitious and this is why the US didn't help him and even helped the islamists take over). So it can go pretty fast. And it doesn't take that much! That region including non listed countries has a GDP of 3 trillion. Their economy (per capita) could triple, it's not crazy (didn't it already triple the past few decades?) their population triples, and bam in 30 years you got a GDP of 27 Trillion, while NA EU JP stagnate or even decline. The MENA region on their side also has oil, natgas, fertilizers, and idk what else, that are only going to go up in value. This can help support 500 years of world domination. Europe dominated the world for less reasons than this. Anyway, the gap between developped world and the rest (except sub saharan africa, they are rekt) will tighten I can guarentee this. The US have just declared sending troops to Saudi Arabia to deal with Iran... With the coming UBER depression, likes of which you have never seen, the US won't be able to keep the region tamed. Pay attention to this: "During the two decades before 1975 per capita income in Iran grew faster than in Turkey and kept pace with Korea. By 1975 the level of per capita GDP in Iran was more than double those attended in Korea and Turkey. However, since the late 1970s income per head in Iran has witnessed a rapid decline. . . By 1990, GDP per capita in Iran had declined by half, almost down to the levels prevalent in the early 1960s and falling behind Turkey and Korea." Double digit growth. The 15 years before 1975 were called the "white revolution" led by Iran shah, and 1978/1979 (when the decline started) was when the shah had to quit the country and the religious "supreme leaders" took over. This is very long term (several decades), but when the "developped world" sees their greatest depression in history with nothing left to slow it down (rates at zero or less, inflation high already, debt insane already, QE pushed to the max, etc)... developped world economies are going to be the safest ones and the ones to recover faster. Let me repeat, when the west depression begins, investing in a middle east country with plenty of issues and potential wars will be MUCh safer than investing in the developped world. Great time to start looking at this region. Warren Buffet and John Templeton did not have access to double digit growth, but maybe we will. The ones that have the vision to look at the right place while every one else is focussed on the previous opportunities. OF THE PAST. Don't be sad because it is over. Smile because it is beginning :)
TADAWUL:TASIEducation
by MrRenev
1
Welcome to the great depression of the 2020s. It is starting.Summer is over, childrens are forced back to school, and policy makers and money movers are back. Going to try going to the point here. And just going to look at the west (NA & Central + North + West europe) and south east asia. Africa is pointless, and then I do not want to look at every country russia north africa australia etc there is too much to look at there's probably some interesting places and companies (or will be spread a little every where). South America is probably rip also. There are alot of things so I'll use bullet points. I will try listing most of the major facts. > Long Term + IQs in the west have dropped around 15 points since the 19th century. Which is huge. An average person today would be mentally retarded back in 1870. In particular the drop has accelerated since 1975. The smartest people on the planet now are in SEA, by a small lead, not enough to go all in invest there. + Huge waves of migrants in the west never seen in history. + Aging population in the West and Japan. + Biggest debt ever (and lowest rates, even negative), everywhere almost. + Due to low IQs and tech advances, people have a harder time adapting. People are getting dumber while jobs are requiring more intellect... + End of the communication Kondriatev Cycle. + Crowded planet, Polluted planet, Ressource Exhausted planet. + Possible end of an ERA started in the west with first renaissance (including finance) in north italy, then conquest of the world/new world, tech advances, industrial revolutions, and in this 3rd millenia first few years it went absolutely parabolic, adoption curves are vertical, and everyone thinks it won't ever end (LOL!). Looking VERY similar to Rome. Actually the exact same. Same inflation, same migrant waves, etc. + Very low Testosterone levels in the west also. No babies. Priorities changed. Paradigm shift. Check the new field called biohistory. + Central banks have gotten too much power, and their monetary policies make no sense. + World trying to "cheat" and fast forward the economy, and over consumption of every thing. Just an idiotic mentality. > Medium Term + Debt not planned on getting better. Here is the ridiculous CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES 2019 Long-Term Budget Outlook: www.cbo.gov + As suprising as something that unbelievably dumb is, "people" (disgraceful sub-humans) praise governments that were running during great economic times, and blame those that were around during recessions or depressions. It's so stupid it hurts, it even hurts to have to lower myself to acknowledge this, but things are as they are and what unbelievably stupid sub humans think (if we can call it thinking) has consequences. And the consequence is governments want to postpone recessions and pump the economy up... Plunge protection team is really ridiculous (USA Europe China all have theirs)... + The 90% are getting poorer, the income and wealth gaps are as big or bigger than in 1929. + Of course socialism and facism are getting cool again. Especially socialism. Inequality + much stupider simian beasts... + Price to Earnings at 1929 levels, highest they ever got (apart from 2000 but those were all growth stocks) + Price to GDP (buffet indicator) at highest level... + Bond rates are so dumb. + Social justice insanity, it doesn't even make sense most of the time. + Magic Internet Money ponzi schemes symptom of the problem(s) and absolutely ridiculous. > Short term + Hong Kong exploded. + Sweden (swedistan they say) going kaboom. + LA.... is full of drug addicts, crime everywhere (criminals get super light sentences), homeless everywhere, ultra high inequality, they have medieval diseases that even india does not have, it's a complete dump full of typhus carrying rats, and trash, I could go on. Complete dump. Ridiculous. + Political divide in the US is so high now... 1/3 of casual citizens and 2/3 experts think a civil war is imminent. + etc... + And this: Q4 is the best period for trading, I will make a separate idea for this, during this week. And September-October is usually the period when the stock market falls. Here are a few examples: Black Monday 1987 ==> Oct. 19, 1987 "Black" days before the 20th century ==> Sep/Oct also... I think I made an idea on this a while ago... Not going to look for it. Big crashes and bad things happen in this period very often take my word for it. (This should be known). > Prediction for the next 5 years * Q1 2018 to mid 2019 was a period of uncertainty (well not if you have been following me, I have been very certain of what was going on). September or October will mark the start of the great depression of the 2020s. Do not expect CNBC to talk about this, or maybe they'll have some guests they consider excentric that claim this, but the "pros" will only be aware the depression started somewhere in 2020 or even 2021, and the mainstream even later than that. In 50 years of course we will trace back the beginning to the next days... * The indices are just numbers. The master manipulators probably do their best to "keep numbers up" but it will all go down any way. For example if the indices numbers are up DOUBLE but inflation is 500%, they are not really up. They probably just try their hardest to keep numbers up for the sake of having numbers up. But everything collapses regardless. I would not go short with so much really stupid manipulation. Indices fall, Trump gives a call to the central bank and banks "to talk about something else pinky swear" and then numbers go up the next day... Can go down regardless. If the clowns running the show force the numbers to go up they will just keep making things much worse. I am talking about destroying the United States of America in a record short time. But still... I don't see a short... Numbers can be artificially proped up while real things get worse. I only do short term anyway (1 day to 5 weeks). So it's out of my field of expertise anyway... Just too much manipulation and random factors for me. I think in longer terms only buy and hold or get out and wait for a turn is the way to go, speculating in particular short is better shorter term not that interesting long term. Just my opinion. * Currencies I expect to become much more volatile soon. Yay! Dollar probably won't be a safe haven this time. It is already overpriced since Europe and China have been devaluing their currencies to the limit. * Cryptocurrencies will be a big hedge against the depression. Nah I'm just kidding they are going to zero of course. Not going to go into details check my crypto ideas + common sense. * I am not sure about commodities. Gold and Silver go up, Oil down maybe? Agri will be more volatile. Copper down, less is being done, less demand...
TVC:DJIEducation
by MrRenev
13
Stocks vs GoldSince 1971 when the USD and most other fiat currencies were not linked to Gold anymore, we haven't seen stocks really go up. Stocks expressed in Gold were already up substantially at the time and after Nixon closed the gold window Stocks dropped 95% against gold. Below I have put the DJIA since 1915 and 1971, as these are the best data we can get. The truth is that on Tradingview I can cleanly analyse only one market at a time as it doesn't have the global combine stock market capitalization. Yes there have been lots of other markets that have gone up since that time and the global economy has definitely grown, but I am here to make certain points based on the fact that the US economy is the largest in the world: A. Since 1971 the US stock market has dropped 95% and 87% and between those two big drops it had a 4000% increase B. At the moment it looks like stocks have started their new bull run in 2011 C. In USD terms the DJIA has been going up for time periods that are a bit longer than the total amount of time it was going down & sideways, the time for the next drop might be almost here. You might be thinking why does that matter? You might think: Gold is pretty useless, it has an inflation rate of about 1-2% and all that matters is that stocks are going up and paying dividends! The truth is that as a whole stocks have performed better than Gold and have provided nice dividends through the years to investors, but Gold has had much less risk and until 2011 it was the best store of value. However you have to understand that this huge rally and these huge drops happened as Central banks and commercial banks globally increased the total money supply (in dollar terms) by about 20-40x. Gold was the soundest money the humanity ever had and moving to a new insane monetary standard distorted things on all markets and created various bubbles. We can see that the global money supply is about 80-90T 'worth of USD' and the total worth of all stocks globally is about 70-80T USD. By following the way new money has been created/printed we can see that stocks have pretty much tracked the global expansion of the money supply. Someone could say that 'look there is 225T worth of real estate', so the global money supply shouldn't matter, however the reality is that: a) stocks pay dividends and their price has some correlation with their dividends and b) stocks need liquidity which comes from money, c) real estate can be used for various things, it is less risky and is market growing with global population and d) there is 245T of global debt makes anyone realize that something isn't right. The funny things is that part of the debt has negative yield and more is going to go negative. This means that Real estate and Bonds are in a much worse bubble that stocks actually are, but they could go much higher. As you can already see, unsound money from governments and Central banks is causing a tremendous misallocation of capital, it is destroying wealth and at the same time it is concentrating wealth to the hands of those that have already had massive wealth. It should be obvious to everyone that US stocks should had been worth much more than they were worth in 1971... or should they? Given that money is a zero sum game, if there wasn't new money being printed, then stocks shouldn't have really moved up or down much. Only really good investments would succeed and pay a dividend, while bad ones would quickly go away. Essentially the value of our money and investments would go up, without a 'special' number going up. There are many more factors playing a role in this, but overall stock markets going up 20-50-100x up is nonsense created by Central banks. Free and non-manipulated markets don't behave like that and don't do crazy things like have 10-20 years long bear markets during peaceful and prosperous times. What has made things a lot better and have prolonged the ability of Central banks to do these crazy things is the technological progress we've had over the last 50 years. Below I've put Nasdaq 100 expressed in Gold which is showing for how long the tech stock bull and bear markets really lasted in the US. To me it shows that there is a high chance that we are in the disbelief phase / 'this is a sucker's rally' phase. This fits nicely with the fact that most people are expecting a recession (and rightfully so), as most people get it wrong and the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. In my opinion this new tech bull run is based on: a) the exponential progress in technology, b) the fact that the market came out of a vicious correction that lasted 12 years, c) gold being controlled by central banks d) gold is 'outdated' in a digital world and e) banning cash, full on negative rates, more money printing, f) a new digital banking system with Central banks creating digital, while they use that money to start buying stocks. However how large is that upside given the current macro picture? How long can the market stay irrational under the current awful global financial conditions? In my honest opinion the upside here is somewhat limited and the risk quite large. Until stocks many new ATHs I'd stay out of stocks, as we could be moving into a recession which could initially cause a drop in stocks. Don't forget that Central banks will try and fight the recession with everything they've got. Also don't forget that the US still remains the best place to put your money in. So in my opinion we will eventually see a prolonged period of stagflation or simply a period where stocks, bonds etc keep going up on a really unsound basis until everything breaks down. No idea when things start breaking down, but the one thing I am certain off is that I wouldn't want to hold much fiat. It is the first time that we are observing such a crazy period of currency wars with a quite a lot of changes on our monetary and payment systems. As I've mentioned before, USD, JPY, Gold, Silver, Bitcoin and maybe some stocks (i.e US large tech stocks) are the only assets i'd touch.
TVC:SPXEducation
by BitcoinMacro
HOW TO READ THE BTC DOMINANCE CHART AND WHY YOU SHOULD USE IT!So, the title is obvious. Why should you be using this chart. Well unless you want to keep your Bitcoin, pin your ears back. When BTC dominance is going up and keeps going up it means only one thing. Bitcoin is moving faster than alt-coins meaning your alt holdings are bleeding BTC at a heavy rate. Too many people think they are winning in this industry because USD is up... When in actual fact they have lost a couple of BTC without noticing. So take note of the dominance chart. Set an alert within a trend. If it is going down, look at altcoins to trade. If it is going up hold Bitcoin.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DEducation
by CryptoMobster
3
How to use my FG oscillator in conjunction with DFG oscillatorLooks like BTCUSD still have a little bit further down to go, but is winding up for a next significant pump. DEMO of the use of my FUSIONGAPS (FG) and DIFFERENTIAL FUSIONGAPS (DFG) scripts, with my LIVIDITIUM indicators set. Not a financial/trading/investment advice. Exercise your own judgement and take responsibility for your own trades. ;) See also: If you like this set of indicators, and it has benefited you in some ways, please consider tipping a little to my HRT fund. =D cybernetwork @ EOS 37DzRVwodp5UZBYjCKvVoZ5bDdDqhr7798 @ BTC MPr8Zhmpsx2uh3F5R4WD98MRJJpwuLBhA3 @ LTC 1Je6c1vvSCW7V2vA6RYDt6CEvqGYgT44F4 @ BCH AS259bXGthuj4VZ1QPzD39W3ut4fQV5giC @ NEO rDonew8fRDkZFv7dZYe5w3L1vJSE51zFAx @ Ripple XRP 0xc0161d27201914FC0bAe5e350a193c8658fc4742 @ ETH GAX6UDAJ52OGZW4FVVG3WLGIOJLGG2C7CTO5ZDUK2P6M6QMYBJMSJTDL @ Stellar XLM xrb_16s8cj8eoangfa96shsnkir3wctdzy76ajui4zexek6xmqssweu85rdjxrt4 @ Nano ~JuniAiko (=^~^=)v~
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by cybernetwork
Trading Divergences - An Alternate View for New TradersTrading divergences is a very common technical analysis strategy, but it comes with one big problem: the most common divergences (not hidden) trade against the trend. This means that new traders can often get into trouble by constantly looking for, and trading, against a dominant trend. Here's an idea to help you become more profitable over the long-term: identify divergences on your chosen momentum indicator, but only trade on trend continuation signals. I'm not saying you need to do this forever, as once you're experienced you can trade both pullbacks and continuations - but doing so requires multiple layers of confirmation, and a lot of knowledge/planning/experience. By trading trend continuation signals after divergences, you're stacking the odds in your favour by going with the dominant trend. You're also training your eye to see divergences, and seeing how the markets react to divergences. For new traders this can be a valuable lesson in the power of momentum in financial markets. So, what are trend continuation signals? It depends on your chosen momentum indicator, so I can only provide general ideas; you need to adapt things according to what you're using. My chart contains a custom momentum indicator, loosely based on the RSI. However, it's far smoother than the RSI, so I can reliably trade precise signals (e.g. for me, a cross of 0). On the RSI, you may choose something a bit further down the scale, for example, a cross below Oversold (20/30). If you're using a Stochastic indicator, you may trade a cross below Overbought (70/80). If you don't understand why I'm suggesting you trade signals at the opposite end of the scale for RSI and Stochastic, let me know. Hopefully this all makes sense, and remember that it's just an idea if you're a new trader and struggling to make good trades. Let me know if you have any queries. DD
Education
by DreamsDefined
4
The Bitcoin speculative frenzyHello and welcome to my idea. Since early 2018 I was following the progress of this gigantic bubble explosion in this idea: I want to make a new clean idea now. I have been following it closely and noting people psychological state. Recently I check trading view homepage ideas mine are not in here, I am pretty disapointed as I was trying to show that in these situations bears get ridiculed and bulls "group up" on them to kick them while they are down. I do have some content but I wanted more, so it is not only "a coincidence" "a few bad apples". I have a great number of twitter screenshots on my PC thought, shall these posts disappear... Also have trading view & other. I believe Bitcoin 2019 bull market is very close to the end. What we witnessed in 2018 was not a correction but the start of a new trend to the downside. While it was possible that BTC retraces to 0.382 only after hitting 3k, 0.786 was much more likely (~$13500). We got to 13000 today. So I think the timing for this idea is perfect. The global economy is completely insane, the FED decisions are very questionnable, on top of that every one, completely uneducated people, are getting into investing. The consequences are going to be disastrous. The examples I am thinking of are: - The mississippi bubble in the 18th century that resulted in decades of bad economy and then the french revolution ("Let them have cake" - Marie Antoinette) - The US stock market bubble of 1929 which resulted in World War 2 ("The jews and Poles are parasites and the jews crashed the economy") We are living at a time where instant gratification is the norm, people are more delusional than ever, and as I said, complete bubble, interest rates and bonds yields are at their lowest in human history, plus the financial world got invaded by complete amateurs. This month, beyond meat IPO went up 300% in days. There are plenty of crazy examples. Bitcoin is simply the graphical manifestation of the insanity that is going on. Here is a recent idea about the Bitcoin bubble within a bubble that is going on. And another. We could go for an ABC as described here Or 12345. Bitcoin could ABC to 500$ then hoover in the 500-2000 range for a long while. It could become a currency like the other ones. Why would it not get replaced by something better thought? There are a few bubbles very similar to Bitcoin, but first I would like to focus on Sugar. In the eighties. By "last time they said" I refer to what Bitcoin investors keep repeating, that last time Bitcoin went down some people said it would keep going down and that did not happen. Which makes absolutely no sense to anyone rational / capable of understanding probabilities / just understand how bubbles work. > Great accumulation bottom great entry > 3.618 total extension, 0.618 wave 5 extension > Up 650% > Took exactly the same duration to return to baseline both times > 0.786 retrace "Back to normal" or phase 6 in hyperwave terms (see bubble charts describing the "back to normal" phenomenon) > Not completely clear accumulation, no high reward to risk entry (too many eager gambling buyers?) > At 4.236, wave 5 between 0.618 and 0.786, I expect the top to be in that range > Up 350% after going parabolic. Total when this is over should be around that number. > We shall see how long to go down to 3000. > Almost at 0.786, we probably (?) make it there? Let's take a look at 2011-2013 "bubble". I do not like the word bubble, definitions are all bad. "Prices rise far above instrisic value". Who is to say what the intrisic value is? Demand and supply is what defines it. If bubbles "exist" as defined, then gold is permanently in a state of bubble, all fiat currencies too. Pretty much everything all the time. This is not a "back to normal", just want to look at extensions. Mainstream media and all the people invested in it are (OBVIOUSLY for the people invested) saying this is "back to normal". They are living in an echo chamber and telling every one how they think we are "back to normal", like we expected something else from people that bought... I have explained how this was soon to fail and shown evidence after evidence. Facts and facts and facts, and even undeniable proof of what was going on, and have shown what always happened in history, just to be ignored or ridiculed. This time it's different. Just got ridiculed because "it did not happen in the 2 weeks after that post was made". I am being nice, 2 weeks is more than most people attention span nowadays. Scams can last a long time before dying, but the way things are, I doubt it will last much longer... Surely not 20 more years like Madoff's ponzi scheme. The investors in this scam have turned insane by greed and the % move (most were probably not very smart to beging with), so this is why it is called "dumb money". Completely ignoring facts and risk and logic... A reason for the price to go up is "last time they said". Where some technology is mentionned and the fools that got trapped in this bubble believe that a great number of people were actually bearish on those technology (which is never the case). I made a list of a few of what was supposed to be the "future" "just like last time they said" and just failed completely. There are more failures than successes but we remember successes only, and people are not open minded enough and not interested in history (or too lazy or too greedy and in denial) to know that. Besides, they always seem to mix the technology (Blockchain) which is certainly very interesting, and Bitcoin which is not very different than a ponzi scheme. As a speculator I am trying to guess what a top could be. Momentum should slow in the 12000-14000 area and I would bet on the downside. Price could get close to 15000, and the public go completely wild, whales would take this chance to sell their large stacks that can hardly be cashed out (we have seen sells of only 5000 spread over hours drop the price by 10%...). It is actually not super interesting to trade for plenty of reasons, but I will anyway, for fun & education.
BNC:BLXEducation
by MrRenev
18
AUDUSD - How i traded it into the FED Rate and managed my risk.Hello All I thought i would post a video of how i completed my analysis and entered 6 trades in total for AUDUSD. All with different lot sizes dependant on approach and also how I managed my risk going into the FED news, and how with 6 trades triggering at different times (risking 1% of my capital for each trade) - I only had 3% at risk at anyone time which I have now reduced to just 1.5%. Thanks for your time in watching my video, i hope you find it interesting. Duncanforex.com is coming in the next 10 days. If you want to, you can go to the website now and register your interest and also be eligible to obtain discount vouchers for the training course once the site is live. Thanks Duncan
Education
by UnknownUnicorn483829
Beyond meat short sellers are going to have to learn to codeShorting was already super expensive. But now, now that the company had their first quaterly earnings release since IPO, the thing is taking off. Sales rose 215% and are expected to grow tremendously in the future. Now I do not know how it works, but the company is not profitable. Earnings are something like -1$ per share or so. A growth stock. If they sell way more then they will be profitable? Maybe they have some flat costs that kill their revenue now but they wo'nt have these costs later on? I am just interested in following this story and added this stock to my watchlist. Going to explode. I hope short sellers had options hedging them or something :D Maybe we see an absolute explosion in share price followed by a short squeeze and an absolute explosion. Again. BUT I think with the shorting prices being so high and the shares being almost entirely held by insiders and retail investors (that do not lend shares for shorting because they are noobs & morons), there are very few bears in this market. Also... if most longs are full noobs/imbeciles... Looks like potentially a massive bubble ahead. With painfully obvious phases. And just keeps going up. And bounces on the way down "this was the bottom" and obvious stop loss levels. Looks like something we could call inefficient. Dumb money that make decisions out of greed and "beating wall street" and "showing to the man" (whatever that means). Downside should be limited if most people involved are retail baggies? Right? I am not an expert on this tbh. Should be a super easy one, easy edge just get in and be the first to get out once it stops going up, retail baggies won't be running for the exits, np. Another point for education purpose, best not to short sell hype stocks dominated by retail until there is a big complacency? Seems to make sense... This feels like looking at penny stock trading which is literally taking advantage of moron baggies that FOMO and not having the pros competition (since stocks are too small for the pros). When I look at noob stocks, I never see them gap down 20% like Facebook did a while ago. They do gap up, alot. But I never saw one gap down. But as I said I am not experimented with this. What they do though, is they consolidate for a really long time. Looking at Robinhood top hold here: Actually Bitcoin is the same. 0 institutional interest, they all think it is a ponzi scheme, full inexperienced retail and just bagH0DL all the time. Super boring, but once in a while it gets to a support and every time "this was the bottom". Once could make a strategy hunting stocks that are mainly held by unsophisticated retail investors and buying at supports before big rallies, or even simply FOMO buying... (the edge and the difference being of course the experience trader knows when to get out). I saw somewhere that Activision was a retail favorite. Idk this could be interesting... to be more diversified in the future. I probably just stick to currencies commodities and trade bigger and bigger eventually just use options to protect myself. And stocks just for investing in solid both growth & value companies. Like a one trick pony. 2 trick pony. Focussing on what I am good at, huge markets I don't need more. Modern portfolio theory sucks. I rather find rare perls and make big one sided bets.
NASDAQ:BYNDEducation
by MrRenev
Dow TheoryCharles H. Dow (with Edward Jones and Charles Bergstresser) founded the Dow Jones & Company Inc. and developped the Dow Jones Industrial Average (the big new thing back then were big industries, now it is big tech giants Apple Amazon Google Facebook... Next is going to be renewables and biotech nah just kidding next is a huge recession and WW3 and the end of modern civilisation too late to save the world). Dow created a theory that he descrobed in editorials in the Wall Street Journal (which he dounded): 1. The market prices everything. Whether the participants know it or not. Even future events are priced in in the form of risk. 2. There are 3 kinds of market trends. Primary trends 1 year or more (bull or bear markets of different magnitude, consolidation). Secondary trends are pullbacks in a bull market and rallies (sharp ones) in a bear market. Last kind of trend < 3 weeks is basically noise. (Personal remark: for currencies & commodities this is different imo. For the stock market this is valid and has been for centuries) 3. Primary trends have three phases. Accumulation, public participation, excess phase in a bull market. In a bear market distribution, public participation, and panic (or despair) are the 3 phases. Check Elliot Wave theory too. 4. Indices must confirm each other. Dow used the DJIA and DJTA (transportation) indices. Now look at well the 3 USA ones and the other continents too... 5. Volume must confirm the trend. Low volume indicates a weakness in the trend. It should go up as price is going up. 6. The trend stays the primary trend until there is a CLEAR reversal. (Tell that to FOMO moonboys) Let's look at exemples of market cycles. 2012-2015: 2017-2021 on the linear chart: All time, several ways to see it: 2018-2019: Best to just look at examples: Looking at volume... It's really not clear. The rule needs to be removed or changed. With Bitcoin in the excess phase we clearly saw an explosion, and then decline. And that was the top. Each market works differently but these cycles are seen everywhere. I wanted to look at the new one, Bitcoin. Let's look at a few other ones. Sugar ==> Dow Jones ==> Gold ==> Copper ==> EuroDollar ==> Tesla ==> Movie pass (LOL) ==> Rektcoin ==>
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by MrRenev
9
Let's get freaky with Gann Box Analysis and Time CyclesI have decided to help make a more in-depth analysis covering CSE:LHS since the stock is fairly new. The chart above is where we are currently sitting, which is on the bear side of the gann box but we will get into that later. How I start drawing Gann Boxes: Use the dynamic Gann box tool and draw from high to low or low to high; Configure the settings to show only 1 & 0.5, set all others to zero and turn angles on. Things to remember about Gann's time cycles: Days of interest and should be watched are significant days in a given solar year. Any of the solstices and equinox's (Dec 22, March 21, June 21, Sept 23) and their important angles which are in increments of 15 from these days. This means that 15 days after these significant days in a solar year. Gann used degrees in a circle to compute cycle lengths. The 360 degree in a circle is approximately the same as 365 days in a year. So he used 180 (half a circle), 90 (a quarter of a circle), 45 (1/8 of a circle), 135 (90+35), etc. He also used eights of 90 for shorter cycles to calculate the trading days in a cycle. 1/8 of 90 is 11.25 days, 2/8 is 22.50 days, 3/8 is 33.75 and 4/8 is 45 days. 5/8 is 56.25, 3/4 is 67.50, 7/8 is 78.75 and 8/8 is 90. If we round these numbers we trading day counts of 11, 22, 34, 45. 67, 79, 90. Step 1: Draw the first Gann Box from Low to High so an entry point can be established on the pullback. Step 2: Clone the Gann Box over to find entry once a support line is reached on one of the increasing angles about the 45 deg line. I use other indicators to confirm entries and exits. In the chart below we can see support is reached on Dec 13, 2017, but MACD hasn't come close to crossing. The actual breakout is on Dec 28, 2017, when we see strong RSI, Stoch crossover and MACD crossover to confirm entry. Oddly enough this date is shortly after the Winter Solstice which Gann says is a date to watch for. Digging further we see a high made when it reaches one of the trading cycle counts of 23 which is right after the 22nd degree. Step 3: The cycle has ended with The Box now broken and invalid since the creation of a new all-time high. We can expect an inflection point here and we can now redraw the Gann Box from the low to this new high. Oddly enough this Gann box has a cycle of 77 trading days and if we look above at the important dates we are pretty close to Gann's cycle. As you can see we break the bottom of the box and again have to redraw the box to establish a new position if we can see movement onto the bull side of the box. Step 4: Since the creation of the new box and cloning the box over we can see a few things. We begin with the inflection upward along the strong trend line which is confirmed by rising RSI and Stoch crossover. However, this rally doesn't last since we soon break down into the bull side and consolidates until we reach a new ultimate low. Step 5: Since the Gann Box has become invalid once breaking through the bottom we can now redraw a new dynamic Gann box which end's up being our most current. From here we will analyze this one a little bit further. We can see a few things after we create a new box. We have reached an inflection point where a rally starts moving and continues along the bull side of the box. An entry here is promising since the indicators are confirming a strong trend is imminent. Eventually, we break below the 45-degree angle and enter into the bear side where a trade would be closed. If we look at this pullback we can see that it hits an area of support when we apply Fibonacci. We eventually break below the 1x1 angle but are able to make a nice gain should we choose to. Present Day Look: Pay attention to where the close is relative to the angles and what the indicators are telling us. Looks like we are on the bear side of the box with a weak trend and the indicators do not look promising. Well, that is it for me on this. Tell me what you guys think, don't be afraid to start a conversation with me if you have charts and ideas to share.
LEducation
by UnknownUnicorn3275974
5
Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle 3As you can see in the chart above, BTC has had 4-year cycles of bull and bear markets. The purpose of this idea is to keep in mind the big picture in regards to BTC price. In my opinion, Cycle 3 has now begun. It was a brutal bear market but believe it or not, it was shorter than the Cycle 2 bear market by a few weeks. However, it is important to understand that even though the bear market is over, we are still a long way from new highs and parabolic moves. If Cycle 3 acts similar to Cycle 2 in terms of time and price, the following timeline is expected: - BTC retests previous high/makes a new high in December-2020/January-2021. No one and I mean no one (news, family, friends, etc.) will give a shit about bitcoin until it hits a new high. This is why the smart money is invested around this time ($3,000 to $5,000) near the Cycle 3 low. - BTC goes crazy (parabolic) between June-2021 and November-2021. Expect a lot of talk about crypto in general during this period. You'll hear about it on TV, newspapers, family, friends, etc. - BTC crashes hard on January-2022. As usual, when everyone and their mother is invested in crypto, it will crash HARD. NOTE: The above timeline will NOT be 100% accurate. However, it provides a great perspective on how long it takes for BTC to make a significant move even if the cycle low is already behind us.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Fib_Trades
2
Surprise! How to use fib correctly. Log fib!In a previous idea I said if it got 50 likes I would post a surprise. I think they don't want you to know... Some people might already know this but I know for a fact the vast majority does not. I hope this does not stop working now that I share it. I have plenty of other strats and if markets evolve and 1 strat stops working I know I'll be the first to evolve so I do not even mind. Now how to draw the log fib? You simply use "Fib channel" and voila. I think it is supposed to be a fib that gets drawn diagonally, but unlike the regular fib it scales with log. So it can be diverted from its main purpose and used this way. Some examples: It looks like the stock market retraces have been more shallow since investors have been telling people to buy & hold. Didn't stop billionaires from being made. On something that went up 10 years, +600%, like gold I am not sure which one is best. On really big moves it has to be the log one obviously. You can only see the top 10% on the linear chart and most of it is too smal because of the exponential rise. Amazon is a good example. I am not saying this works 100% of the time & don't go all in. There are not a whole lot of really large moves so not a huge sample size to work with. Since crypto has no intrisic value and most importantly is highly manipulated I expect this to keep working perfectly until the crypto cow is entirely milked and there is nothing left in. Crypto is still at a 150 billion market cap, at under 25 billion they might think it's not worth their time anymore. Since miners might bail out (I heard they were doing it little by little) and wash trading / ponzi exchanges are going to exit scam, it could only work once more and then suddenly end. Crypto was nice and all when it was only made up of noobs, but in 2017 the sophisticated crowd joined and they are interested in cold hard cash, not imaginary money they won't ever be able to cash out of and transform into real concrete money (since it has negative sum rate & no value). I wish I knew about it earlier and had money to spare. But we almost all have to deal with getting so close to making huge returns and just miss it by a hair. Those that accepted it have been able to move forward, and we can grow (as fast as our mightly lords the regulators that control our lives will allow). Those that are still in denial and cannot accept they missed their chance to buy early / cash out at the top, are stuck and will get milked to the last drop (until crypto is small enough the whales ignore it & they'll keep coming any time it grows). As a conclusion; when you look at really big timeframes / or moves of maybe 1000% in a short time, use the log fib ==> This is how you do it on tradingview. Until next bubble ;)
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by MrRenev
2