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Economic Cycles

Correction Phase and Impulse Phase with Continuous PatternHello Trader, Today is Sunday and I have free time to share with you guys about one of my Strategy. Its one of the Following Trend Trade Method. Base on simple Pattern like Wedge, Channel,... This Strategy is very simple to define. You can use it to trade on every Time Frame but for me. I will define which phase the market is on higher TF then analyst on lower TF. I will share how to entry with Correction Phase and Impulse Phase Next Week. If you have any question about this. Please leave me a comment I will try my best.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by MH_Quan
BABA, a beautiful example of ANTI complete cycle !BABA is a beautiful example of ANTI complete cycle ! Many Elliott wave practitioners are not aware of different types of wave cycles ! They may consider themselves as a genius in a bull market ( As everyone else !! ) but suddenly thing change and they can not understand what is happening in a stock or market ! On the left side of the chart there is a schematic drawing showing an ascending complete cycle . In this well know wave cycle waves go up in 5 leg and go down in 3 legs. Correction will never go below the start of wave cycle in this type ( does it go in some other types? of course goes ) !!. Many investors and traders were hoping for this cycle ( and may be were not aware of alternatives ) in BABA, opened long position at the possible end of wave 4 at related retracement levels and now have lost huge amount of money !!! An ascending ANTI complete cycle is shown on the right side of the chart. In this cycle waves go up in 3 legs and go down in 5 legs and correction will never go below the start of the wave cycle. Does BABA play like this wave cycle? So far yes. Is there any other alternative ? Of course yes ! please note we have many other types of wave cycle and we just showed two of them here !. For example, we have neutral or descending antic cycles ( for example of descending anti cycle see my related idea about BROS stock ). It is worth to note many Chinese stocks like TIGR and XPEV showed anti cycles and this is not a surprise as BABA is leading Chinese stocks in the market. Things sound complicated? Yes they are ! but we can extract many useful tips among all these complications : 1. Overconfidence is dangerous ! always set stop loss . Things may change suddenly in a way that we did not predict. 2. Be mindful there are many types of wave cycles . Things are not as simple as they may seem at first look. 3. Do not jump blindly into a long position after apparent up going 1 2 3 form of wave ! 4. Retracement more than 50 % in what we consider a wave 4 is a dangerous warning. We can add many other implications to the list by thinking deeply about different types of wave cycles. Hope this publication to be helpful. Good luck every one !
NYSE:BABAEducation
by SaeedSajedi
4
HOW TO CATCH & RIDE MULTIBAGGERSHello traders! This stock has given 37x in just 5 months in its previous move which was the 1st move. Again it has close above 50ma ,20ma and 6ma after bouncing from its previous support or demand zone at 113. We can take entry at cmp with proper position sizing as the risk here is approx. 35%. To catch multibagger stocks we have to take that risk with proper sizing to deal with the fear in trading. Stoploss should be kept below the previous support of 95 below weekly closing. Targets are mentioned in the chart clearly. It can go up to 22x. NOTE : Once we achieve the 1st target of 100%, we have to book 50% of our total position and forget the 50% for investment purpose. That is the funda of catching multibagger stocks. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is for sharing my views and not be considered as trading recommendation.
NSE:JITFINFRAEducation
by Cruoso4u
Cyclical Analysis Explained (Basics)I am making this post to educate on the basics of Cyclical Analysis by Martin Armstrong. I have made my own indicator for MT4, it is available in the MQL5 Market place under "Martin Armstrong Cycles". Benefits of Cycles 1) Reveals the true market order in advance. 2) Provides a road-map in to the future as to what type of move you can expect. 3) Tells you when a market is likely to rally or decline rapidly. 4) Important and precise support/resistance levels.
Education
by Carl_Gustav_Ekstrom
How to use different types of Fibonacci in TradingViewWave Relationships and their relation by Fibonacci Ratios are among the most helpful tools for target prediction. There are different types of Fibonacci and different tools with different names in different software packages. This may make users somehow confused . Here, we try to shed some light on various mostly used Fibonacci types and explain their usage for target prediction. Also we explain their related tool in TradingView and their way of implementations. As shown on the chart, there are four main types of Fibonacci : 1- Internal Retracement 2. External Retracement (Extension) 3. Expansion 4. Projection Before going through details, it is worth to mention that knowing wave relationships is a key to implement Fibonacci tools accurately. Different types of wave relationships is beyond the scope of this publication. Here, for simplification, we show most simple type of wave cycle which is ascending complete cycle with one 5 leg up impulse and one abc form of correction . Also, we try to explain more typical Fibonacci Ratios for target prediction and skip less often ones. 1. Internal Retracement: This is simply for calculation of the amount of correction in the main trend. It means we can predict where a counter trend correction may end. As shown on the chart, it can be used for target prediction of wave 2 and 4 in an up trend and also wave B in a down trend. It can also be used for calculation of end of wave C which is the end of correction of whole up going wave. Green arrows on the picture show the direction of using this tool which is "Fib Reracement" in TradinView. For example, we put first point at the start of wave 1 and second point at the end of this wave for obtaining possible targets for wave 2 and so on. Wave 2 can end at 0.382, 0.5, 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci Retracement levels of wave 1. Fibonacci levels at which wave 2 ends can send us a signal about the amount of next waves. This is again beyond the scope of this publication. Wave 4 can typically end at 0.382 or 0.5 Retracement of wave 3. Less and more amount of Retracements are also possible, but those make wave relations more complicated and does not match with our simple shown example. Wave B typically corrects 0.382 , 0.5 and 0.618 of wave A in a simple zigzag correction. More Retracements signals for more complicated corrections e.g a flat correction. Wave C Retracement levels are similar to wave 2 in shown wave cycle since it is end of a larger degree wave 2. 2. External Retracement: This Fibonacci which is also called " Extension" can be used for calculation of end of wave 3 or 5 in an up trend and end of wave C ( which is end of whole correction) in a down trend. We have same tool as internal retracement in TradingView however ,unlike internal Retracement, an extension should be drawn from a high to a low in an up trend and vice versa as shown by green arrows on the related figure. Wave 3 Fibonacci Ratios by extension depends on the amount of wave 2 correction. For example, 1.618 or 2.618 extension of wave 2 can be the target for wave 3. Robert. C. Miner has proposed a very useful table for targets using external retracement. Wave 5 typical targets are 1.272, 1.414 and 1.618 extensions of wave 4. This ratios are also the same for calculation of end of wave C. 3. Expansion: Based on my experience, Fibo expansion is most useful when we have over extended waves for example over extended wave 3. In this case , 1.618 or even 2.618 Fibo levels can be the typical targets. Related tool in TradingView is Trend-Based Fib Extension. Please note that this tool in TradingView is a three point Fibonacci while expansion is two point Fibonacci tool. Therefore, Implementing this tool for obtaining Expansion levels is a little tricky. For example, for calculation of wave 3 we should put first point at the start of wave 1 and double click on end of wave 1. There are also more details in implementing Fibo expansion for example we have different types of Fibo expansion. We can skip details here to keep this publication as simple as possible. 4. Projection: This is the only 3 points Fibonacci that we have. Some software packages call this Fibonacci as Expansion !!. Its related tool in TradingView is Trend-Based Fibo Extension. It is a very useful tool for calculation of end of wave 3, 5 and C. Again green arrows show how to use this tool . For example, For wave 3 target calculation we set first point at the start of wave 1, second point at end of wave 1 and third point at the end of wave 2 or start of wave 3. 1.618 and 2.618 Fibo levels are typical for end of an extended wave 3 when using Fibo projection. 100 % Projection of wave 1 from low of wave 4 is a typical one for end of wave 5 target. Also 0.382 or 0.618 projection of wave 1-3 from low of wave 4 is a helpful ratio for wave 5 target calculation. For a wave C, most common projection is 100 % of wave A from top of wave B. How to make a Potential Reversal Zone ( PRZ) : We can make our potential reversal zone stronger by combining all proposed tools . Take another look at the figures. What can we see? yes. We know four tools now for calculation of end of wave C. Suppose how strong a possible buy zone can be when 4 different tools suggest it as potential reversal target ! Hope this to be helpful. Please do not hesitate to ask questions if you feel need to ask. Good luck every one.
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by SaeedSajedi
3
LEADING INDICATOR: YIELD CURVE INVERSION The Yield Curve can serve as a leading indicator of predicting the future stock markets' direction. The Yield Curve is a graph showing how the yields on government bonds change till the bonds' maturity. Government Bonds are debt obligations issued by a national government. The government (issuer) is obliged to repay the principal (amount borrowed) at the maturity date + interest ( coupon ) at fixed times to the bondholder. The difference between stocks and bonds is: The stockholder has an equity stake in a company (i.e. they are owners), while the bondholder has a creditor stake in the state (i.e. they are lenders). The yield yurve is a functional display: The horizontal x-axis presents the time till maturity, while the vertical y-axis depicts the annualized percentage yield to maturity. The basic idea is: The longer the time the investor borrows his money to the government, the higher his returns shall be. At times of economic growth, the yield curve is upwardly sloped (i.e. rising) , because there are no hints that the government could not repay the investor as agreed. At times of economic recession, the yield curve is inverted (i.e. falling), as fears of the governments inability of repaying the investor as agreed arise. A. Set varoious bond rates in Tradingview: 1. Click at the Plus Symbol at the top left 2. Add US30Y 3. Add US20Y (in same pane) 4. do that till US03M 5. Change the color of the line graphs from US30Y light to US03M dark. Therefore you will get a nice color gradient whenever the yiel curve is healthy. (The first pane shows the 30yr, 20yr, 10yr, 7yr, 5yr, 3yr, 2yr and 3M yield curves of the US FED) B. Set long term, mid term and short term yield differences in Tradingview: 1. Add a new pane each with e.g. the symbol US30Y-US02Y. If these curves fall, it recession might come. If one of these curves falls below zero, i.e. the interest rate is 0 and smart money can not make money with bonds. Whenever we have had a recession, many different yield curves were inverted. The yield inversion is indicated when the short term yield periods rises sharply to the percentage of the long term yield, while the long term yield does not increase to keep its initial space to the lower yields. Government Bonds and Stocks tend to be in an anticyclical relation. Whenever stocks rally, bonds are down and vice versa. Big Money avoids stocks if they can get risk free gains with bonds. Bear in mind that the bond market is way more liquid and therefore a great place for Institutions to make their billions. The Smart Money outflow of the stock market can be seen the clearest at high growth stocks, as these were the best promising to make gains at low interest rate times.
TVC:US10YEducation
by ColdAvenue
3
Type 1 Wyckoff AccumulationPrice comes down into the preliminairy support. Price pulls back, showing bigger bullish strength (CHoCH in candle structure) -> Slowing price and creating support -> thus creating liquidity Price bottoms out, creating the selling climax. -> Dumb money starts getting involved in sells. -> Composite man starts buying. Price rallies back up to the end of the CHoCH (AR / automatic rally) Price comes down into the ST (secondary test) which comes to about the level of the bottom of the AR, engineering fake liquidity. -> dumb money buys. Price goes up to around the AR (sign of strength in phase B, ideally stays below the PS) -> taking out sellers / engineering topside liquidity. Price now liquidates the selling climax or ST (overall structure remains bearish, creating an ST (B)) Now price usually starts to range you don’t want price to take out the second high after AR. Price now liquidates all lows with liquidation of the SC is optional but preferrable. Price rallies up (SOW / sign of strength) that takes out seller’s liquidity that should break above AR + SS (B) + now breaks structure. Price might come back to left behind demand zones / mentFX blocks (COURTSEY TO @MENTFX FOR THE IDEA AND KNOWLEDGE)
Education
by finnrep
Learn Trend Analysis | Impulse & Retracement Legs 📈 Hey traders, As you asked me, in this educational post we will discuss some price action basics. No matter whether you are a fundamental trader or a technical trader you should be able to execute trend analysis. You should always know where the market is going; if it is bullish or bearish. One of the simplest ways to execute trend analysis is to perceive a price chart as a sequence of impulses and retracements. ➖The impulse leg is a trend-following move. It is characterized by heightened movement dynamics and speed. Usually the completion point of the impulse: sets a new lower low in a bearish trend, sets a new higher high in a bullish trend. ➖A retracement leg is a correctional movement within the trend. Its’ initial point is the completion point of the impulse or retracement leg and its completion point might be an initial point of a new retracement leg or of a new impulse leg. Usually, a retracement leg is characterized by a slow zig-zag movement. Usually the completion point of the impulse leg: sets a lower high in a bearish trend, sets a higher low in a bullish trend. Perceiving the price chart as the set of impulses, one can easily and objectively identify a global, mid-term and short-term market trend, price action trend-following, reversal and correctional patterns. What do you want to learn in the next educational articles? ❤️Please, support this idea with like and comment!❤️
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
9
HOW-TO: Cycle analysis helps to detect important turning pointsThe concept of cycle analysis has enourmous power to detect and project important points in time when markets might turn. Cycles work in the time domain and therefore offer additional value to technical analysis. As technical analysis is mainly driven by price, cycle analysis offers a view on another parameter: Time. The most important situations occur when time-based cycle projects come into alignment with price-based technical analysis. Therefore, every trader and analyst should also pay attention to time-based cycle analysis. My objective is to offer tools and improved technical indicators on this platform to combine cycle analysis with technical analysis to help in detecting important turning point. This idea is a summary and real-case example on how time-based cycles gave us the exact pre-information on the expected market top during the period October 2021 to 2022. All has been freely avaiable to the public without any need for subscribtion. Check the signature link. Time-based analysis requires additional tools which are not available directly on TradingView yet. Therefore we must reference additional tools to detect relevant cycles. The public announcements based on time-based cycle analysis on the global markets are labled on the chart "Weekly Cycles Rolling Over" (Oct.2021) and "The Calm before the next Wave" (Jan.2022). Look for "The clam before the next wave" via the signature link. They are freely available for your review and have been posted in advance. We will continue to bring more and more of our cycle tools directly to the TV platform, as Pine will allow us to do so. Once you know the dominant cycle (length), you can use this information to improve your technical analysis on the price chart. I do provide different free indicators here on the TradingView platform which are free to use in your own analysis. Please see the linked related ideas which provide access to these indicators for your own free usage. The key is do use the known dominant cycle as input for these indicators. Once the "correct" input is given - these indicators will reduce noise and will make the turns visible on the price chart. The following example is using one of the indicators available here on the TradingView platform. The cyclic tuned RSI indicator: 1) The first indicator signal occured already in May 2021 when to signal line crossed below the dynamic upper band of the cyclic smoothed RSI indicator. While the weekly cRSI is also overbought, indicated by the red background. However, this technical signal occured not in the projected timing window which was given by the dominant cycles. The cycles still have been in their upswing phase on the weekly and daily cycles. So at point (1) we had a technical sell signal. Which was not confirmed by time-based cycles. Time and price have not come into alignment. 2) The second indicator signal (sell) occured in November 2021. When the signal line touched the upper band and reversed, while the weekly cycles have been in overbought situation (red background). This time now is different because the time-based cycles have rolled over! The upswing cycle phase has ended. This was published based on the the time-based cycle analysis "Weekly S&P500 cycles rolling over" on October 2021. So now we have an alignment of the technical cyclic tuned indicator and confirmed by the weekly cycles which have rolled over now indicating a time-based top. Price and time based cycles have come into alignment. There is no misinterpretation possible. There are no other sell signals or buy signals following this method. A clear top/sell signal in November 2021, after the time-based cycle analysis was published in October 2021. 3) The third indicator signals (sell) occured around 12. Jan. 2022, once the divergence between price and the indicator top has become visible. This price cycle signal (divergence) was supported by the time-based cycle analysis published on 18th January, labled "the calm before the next wave". This time, again daily time-based cycles and price cycles from the shown indicator have come into alignment. Again a clear signal that after the weekly cycles (see #2) now the daily cycles have joined the bearish camp confirmed by the divergence signal at the same time on the price chart. Thats how you can use cycles to improve your trading skills. Join the livestream to discuss the analysis and how it can be used on the TradingView chart: www.tradingview.com
XETR:DAXEducation
by StockMarketCycles
24
80/20 P2How often have you heard “90% of traders fail while only about 10% make consistent money”? Often, I am willing to bet. Whilst the exact ratio of traders who make money vs. those who lose money is obviously almost impossible to pinpoint, it probably is somewhere between 80/20 and 95/5. Have you ever thought to yourself “why is trading apparently so difficult that 80 or 90% of people fail at it?” I’m willing to bet you have, and here is my answer to this pervasive question: Trading is the ultimate “less is more” profession, but it’s also extremely difficult for most people to accepting the following: 80% of trading should be simple and almost effortless, 20% is more difficult 80% of profits come from 20% of trades 80% of the time the market is not worth trading, 20% it is 80% of the time you should not be in a trade, 20% you can be 80% of trades should be on the daily chart time frame, 20% can be other time frames 80% of trading success is a direct result of trading psychology and money management, 20% is from strategy / system 80% Simple, 20% Difficult This one is easy. Most of what we do as traders is sit in front of our computers and look at prices going up or down or sideways. This is not by anyone’s standards “hard” to do. The point is this; determining market direction and finding trades is not hard, people make it hard. The difficult part of trading is controlling yourself via not over-trading, not risking too much per trade, not jumping back into the market on emotion after a big win or a loss, etc. In short, controlling your own behaviour and mindset, as well as properly managing your money are the hardest parts of trading, and traders tend to spend less of their time & focus on these more difficult aspects of trading, probably about 20%, when they should be spending about 80% of their time on them. 80% of profits come from 20% of trades It’s absolutely true that most trading profits come from a small percentage of trades. for example if you keep your losing trades contained below a certain 1R dollar value that you are comfortable with, and you see what you consider an “obvious” price action signal with a lot of confluence behind it, You will go in strong or add to the initial position and make a nice chunk of change on the trade if the trade goes in your favour. The winning trades are typically double or triple the 1R risk you give up on any of losing trade. This way, even if you lose more trades than you win, You can still make a very nice return at year’s end. 80% of the time the market is not worth trading, 20% it is Do you see the connection between the fact that most traders lose money (around 80%) and about the same amount of time the market is really not worth trading? Markets chop around a lot, and a lot of the time the price action is simply meaningless. As a price action trader, your job is to analyze the price action and have the discipline to not trade during the choppy (meaningless) price action and wait for the 20% or so market conditions that are worth trading. This point is the most important: The main thing that separates the professionals from the amateurs in this business is patience and not over-trading. Traders tend to negate their trading edge by trading during the 80% of the time when the market is not worth trading. Instead of waiting for the 20% of the time when it is worth trading, they simply trade 80% to 100% of the time with very little discretion or self-control, like a drunk guy at a casino. Don’t let this be you, remember the 80/20 rule ESPECIALLY as it pertains to trading vs. not trading. If you think you are trading about 80% of the time, you need to evaluate your trading habits and make it more in-line with trading only 20% of the time and 80% of the time should be spent observing and keeping your hands in your pockets (not trading). 80% daily chart trades, 20% other time frames The daily chart time frame chart supposedly is the “weapon of choice” as far as chart time frames are concerned. I would say it’s pretty accurate and won’t get into all the reasons why the daily chart to be specific as I do love my good'ol 15m/1h /4h charts, however it is worth pointing out that there is also a direct connection between the fact that most traders get caught up trading lower time frame charts and lose money. This fits well with the 80/20 rule in that probably only about 20% of traders really focus on higher time frame charts like the daily chart and somewhere around 20% to 10% of traders actually make consistent money. People tend to be drawn to the “play by play” action on the lower time frame charts, almost like they are mesmerized by the moving numbers and flashing colours…unfortunately, this turns into somewhat of a trading addiction for many traders, that quickly destroys their trading accounts. 80% of trading success is psychology and money management, 20% is strategy In the previous idea I wrote a mini case study of random entry and risk reward, I showed how it is possible to make money simply through the power of money management and risk reward. To be clear, I was not and am not saying that you can make a full-time living as a trader without an effective trading strategy. I am simply saying that money management and controlling your mindset is far more important than finding some “perfect, Holy-Grail” trading system that simply does not exist. You should be focusing about 80% of your trading efforts on money management and controlling yourself / being disciplined (psychology), and about 20% on actually analyzing the charts and trading. If you do this consistently, I can guarantee you that you will see a very positive change to your trading. Using an effective trading method that is also easy to understand and implement will give you the mental clarity and time to focus 80% on money management and discipline whilst only needing about 20% of your mental energy for analyzing the markets and finding trades. A lot of traders never even get to this point because they are still trying to figure out how the heck to make sense of their trading system. The implication here is that you can eliminate about 80% of your losses and be profitable come end of year of being consistent. The first step to trading with an ‘80/20 mindset’ is to master a simple trading strategy like a price action strategy . As I said earlier, if you do this it will give you the foundation you need to focus more of your time on the real “money makers” in trading, which are money management and your own mental state. Thus, the 80/20 rule in trading is best applied by combining a simple trading strategy and a strong focus on money management and psychology, the synergy of this combination is a very potent force for making money in the market. Rob Booker has a great well rounded video on Youtube on the topic also just search: THE 80/20 RULE FOR TRADERS (15:25) BINANCE:BTCUSD 👍
Education
by AdamsLibrary
1
My Trading Strategy in 4 simple steps.Today I will explain step by step the process I use to develop setups. This is how my strategy works. And this can be applied to any asset and using any technical tools. This is as close as I can get to using an empiric approach to define my trading opportunities. Let's start. My trading strategy is composed of 4 steps: 1) Whats the context of the price? Here, I want to understand all the characteristics of the current situation I'm observing. Mainly I will try to define this in the Daily chart. Examples: * Are we making a new ATH? * Are we inside a 300 days correction? * Is the price above or below a Daily trendline? * Are we inside a small correction or a 50%+ decline? 2) Now that I understand my context. Can I look for similar situations in the historical data of this asset? I only work with assets with enough historical data to conduct this type of analysis. If I'm able to find at least 2 previous situations with similar characteristics to what I'm looking for, I proceed with the next step. Here I use the Weekly and logarithmic chart to identify these situations. 3) Do I see a consistent pattern that I can use to trade in those similar situations in the past? Here I will use lower timeframes like the 4HS chart, and I will look into more details in those similar situations. I will try to find something objective, like "The first retest after the breakout of the most external line of the corrections. If I see consistent behavior and a good risk to reward ratio, I will proceed with the final element of my strategy. 4)Define the pattern I'm waiting for and the execution process in advance. At this stage, I want to say, "I'm waiting for this," and this is how I will trade it. This includes: *Entry level *Stop level *Break-even level *Take profit level. *Risk. And this is it. At this stage, my setup can be executed or canceled depending on the price behavior, but in a nutshell, this is the system I have been using for the last 3 years, and I can say that this has, on average, a win rate of 50% and an average risk to reward ratio of 2. I hope this information was useful. Feel free to share your view in the comments or any doubt you may have. Thanks.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by ThinkingAntsOk
101
Simple BUT Not EasyReading charts and understanding the "Language" of the market is very simple but at times due to high involvement of our emotions we make it very hard. Any market or chart that you see will be in a phase all you have to do is identify it on a higher time frame. Lower Lows & Lowers Highs is a definition of a down trend. Higher Highs & Higher Lows is a definition of a up trend. If you can see the above both happening then market is ranging. If you are having a short bias on a particular instrument always look for a shorting opportunities in a lower time frame after confirming the phase of the market in a higher time frame. Always wait for a confirmed trend don't try and jump in too early. Let market decide the direction, don't force your self. Risk Management is very important, Plan your trade with a proper risk that you can manage. Trading is a marathon, if you try to sprint you will fall down and injure yourself. Slow & steady wins the game :) Thanks
TADAWUL:TASIEducation
by stalkstock
The cycles of the S&P500 | PART 1The cycles of the S&P500 / PART 1 This post introduces a study I'm conducting with the main objective of understanding the cycles and sub-cycles that the S&P500 Index has. Why am I studying the S&P500? Because it is the most relevant index in the world. There is not any other economy in the world that gets close to the returns of the US stock market as a whole, and also, we have a massive amount of data back from more than 100 years ago. So with all that said, let's start. The fundamental view I have regarding the market is that the price has moved between periods of fear and optimism through history, on a cycle that never stops. There is either Fear or Optimism, in other way impulses and corrections. On this chart, we can go through periods of optimism and fear caused by multiple factors, different governments, different geopolitical situations, massive crises, changes in interest rate; you name it, all of them are on this chart, the dot com bubble, the subprime crisis, the missile crisis with Cuba, wars, oil crisis, 1929, etc. The first conclusion I can make at first glance is that despite what was causing it, fear and optimism tend to have characteristics that we may be able to understand. This is a strong base for technical analysis as a discipline. Fear looks the same through several situations, and the same applies to optimism. That's why understanding the price is a powerful element to conclude where we are on the cycle. So what is the price telling us? In this post, we will not only go through the big cycles, but also we want to understand the smaller ones. Now I will put my main conclusions regarding the information I have found. THE BIG CYCLE: -------------------- Impulse 1: 1877 - 1881 = 4 Years / 152% from bottom to top. Correction 1: 1881 - 1897 = 16 Years / -41% from top to bottom. -------------------- Impulse 2: 1897 - 1902 = 5 Years / 144% Fromb bottom to top. Correction 2: 1902 - 1921 = 19 Years / -40% from top to bottom. -------------------- Impulse 3: 1921 - 1929 = 8 Years / 400% from bottom to top. Correction 3: 1929 - 1933 = 4 years / -84% from top to bottom. -------------------- Here we can observe a clear change in behavior regarding impulses. Until 1933 we observe short impulsive periods and long corrective periods. From 1933 until now, this trend reversed, we have long impulsive periods and short corrective periods compared to the past. -------------------- Impulse 4: 1933 - 1969 = 36 years / 2106% from bottom to top. Correction 4: 1969 - 1974 = 5 years / -48% from top to bottom. -------------------- Impulse 5: 1974 - 2000 = 26 years / 2500% from bottom to top. Correction 5: 2000 - 2009 = 9 years / -58% from top to bottom. -------------------- Impulse 6: 2009 - present = 13 years / 600% from bottom to top. In PART 2 of this series of posts , I will go through the sub-cycles we observe from 1933 until now. My main objective is to understand the similarities between these impulsive situations (impulse 4,5 and 6) Here I give you a snapshot of what will be coming: Impulse 4 with sub impulses and corrections: Impulse 5 with sub impulses and corrections: Impulse 6 with sub impulses and corrections: Here you can see the Days and % decline of each correction inside the impulses. Thanks for reading! I will be updating this soon.
SP:SPXEducation
by ThinkingAntsOk
9
HOW-TO: A Step-By-Step Guide to Using The Profit Maxima StrategyThis strategy is suitable for position traders who hold their positions for months. The goal is to determine the best entry and exit levels in order to achieve maximum profit with minimum risk. Due to the bullish nature of the crypto market, trading in the “short” direction is avoided. Step 1: Choose the best chart Use the "Chart Quality" table to choose the appropriate chart. The "Historical Bars" field displays the total number of candles in the chart. The more historical price data is available, the more accurate the results will be; so choose the chart of an exchange that has the most historical bars. The "Predictability" field indicates how reliable the results are. The "Recommended Chart" field shows the suggested chart for some common symbols. Step 2: Place your orders manually Set your entry and exit orders at three different levels; for this, use the "Entry & Profit Limits" table. As you can see, the Entry and Target levels are matched in pair. Step 3: Be patient As mentioned, this is a long-term strategy. In the long term, there are fluctuations, price corrections and so on. So remember that patience is the key.
Education
by BobRivera990
1
The Most Powerful Market Timing TechniqueI'll start off this post with a simple question: why do market technicians place such importance on "confirming" particular areas in a chart? To answer this, we must first understand what confirmation is and what its purpose is. As simply as I can describe it, a confirmation is a technical process of elimination. That is, one can confirm a directional price change in trend by confirming that a continuation (at least immediately, relative to the time frame examined), is a technical impossibility. Through many hours of cumulative human observation, we have been able to derive rules that the market follows unconditionally. These types of absolute rules are few and far between, but knowledge of them is critical to swing trading pivot highs and lows, as well as a basis for having confidence in timing the market. And that last piece is what confirmations are all about: they provide the swing trader with enough confidence to risk his or her monetary life without batting an eye in real time. To catch a major peak or trough within pips of the true high or low (especially in today's leveraged markets) is not only immensely difficult but is also a psychologically torturous undertaking. The outcome of success is immense wealth accumulation in a matter of minutes; no other platform exists in this world where one can turn their life around in such a short amount of time without it being a function of pure chance gambling (like the lottery). In fact, if one can master the art of confirmation (which is to say that one can implement techniques like the monthly time cycle convergence displayed above), then it becomes possible for one to be nearly certain of achieving the highest form of monetary return that is offered in all of financial markets. I would say that a situation like the one we have here and presented above, offers at least a 90% chance of success; insofar as one can succeed in using short-term options leverage to catch the top or bottom of a major turn and yield something in the ballpark of 10,000% return in a week. At the very least, I'd say that the probabilities are such that the techniques are worth serious examination from serious investors with serious amounts of risk capital. So now that we've covered what confirmations are and how they can be of enormous assistance to the patient swing trader, I'd like to discuss this so-called "Most Powerful Confirmation in Technical Analysis." The technique is a simple trial-and-error test of a particular time period that is surmised to contain a "significant" sub-period of time that serves as a major turning point in markets. For example, my hypothesis is that December of 2021 contains a sub-window of time within the monthly time interval that contains the all-time high price in the S&P 500. My initial reasoning is unimportant; the point is that I have a hypothesis of a major directional change in markets and I want to confirm it as much as possible before I seriously consider acting on it. Thus, I will first look to prior major peaks and troughs over the last 20ish years (Cycle, or Supercycle, in Elliott Wave Terms), and measure the number of months in between these points and the current month to see if there are any numerically-significant matches on at least three of them. What do I mean by numerical significance? I mean that it is an observed fact that there exist certain additive sequences (like the Fibonacci Sequence) that ultimately dictate all price movements in free markets. I will not discuss the myriad sources and hypotheses that propose reasons for why this is; I am going to assume that the collective literature is proof enough of its apparent existence. In any case, my goal is to measure the number of months back to each major high or low and see if numbers like "21, 144, 233, 377, etc." come up in these measurements, and if so, how many of them are there? In addition to fibonacci-number monthly counts are "natural roots and squares," whereby a monthly count is a number that can be perfectly squared or rooted to a whole integer. Further, if the root or square is geometrically significant (i.e. a multiple of 2, 3, or 5), then it may serve as a double-confirmed count and provide the swing trader with even more confidence to pursue his swing conviction. Lastly, if the monthly count on any historically significant peak or trough point in time is a natural root or square, is geometrically significant, AND IS ALSO a Fibonacci number, then you have a triple-confirmed count and even more certainty that the month under examination is a future cash-cow. An example of a triple-confirmed count is 144 months back because 144 is 11th fibonacci number, is also the natural square of 12, and 12 is of geometric significance because of its additive/multiplicative relationship with 3 and the root of 3 (which derives the mathematics of triangles and trines). To wrap this up, the chart above shows that EVERY MAJOR PEAK AND TROUGH over the past 20 or so years spins out monthly time counts of numbers that are categorically relevant to the aforementioned criteria. If I wanted to be even more precise than to say "December 2021 will contain the all-time pivot high," then I would conduct a similar analysis, but on a weekly timeframe using a lookback period of about 5 years. The peaks and troughs will be of one lower degree than those of the monthly analysis, but will similarly provide counts that all spin-out signficant numbers if the week that I am examining, is in fact, the correct week containing the major turn. I call this iterative process of trial-and-error "Time Period Convergence" as a general umbrella term for this all-powerful type of analysis. However, the sky is the limit in terms of precision and one could theoretically work his way down to the exact second of the major turn if one has already confirmed numerically-significant counts on the monthly, weekly, daily, hourly (most important for short-term swing trading, FYI), 30-minute, 15-minute, 5-minute, 1-minute and 30-second timeframes, as long as one has access to live data that can feed in such timeframes. Since I began with a simple question, I will leave you with a simple question: Do you think still think it's impossible to time markets? -Cyc-Pig-lycal Convergence SP:SPX NASDAQ:IXIC TVC:DJI TVC:RUT
SP:SPXEducation
by UnknownUnicorn5511258
5
EUR INR co-relation with US Dollar IndexAs you see in the chart, EUR/INR price has -ve co-relation with US Dollar Index movement. This means that when there is sharp movement seen in US Dollar index, the reverse movement happens in EUR/INR. Although there are many factors that affect currency movements but this indicator is very helpful to estimate medium-long term direction of the currency pair. However, it doesn't mean that EUR/INR does exactly opposite to US Dollar index every day. It just means that over medium to long term it goes in the opposite direction to US Dollar Index. Currently, US Dollar index looks very strong as it broke a long term resistance zone. However, it has reached another strong resistance zone (97-98 level) and is expected to take a pause around these levels or maybe correct to 94-95 levels before resuming upward journey. This means, the steep fall that we saw in EUR/INR recently can at least pause for a while or we may see some rebound happening back to 85 levels before EUR/INR resumes its downtrend towards 81-82 levels. This is not a trading idea but it is relevant for people who want to transfer EUR to INR or vice versa so that that they can make an informed choice when to transfer.
CAPITALCOM:DXYEducation
by adiz8001
Geometry: Angles, Cycles, and SymmetryThe harmonics of two are as such: 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64 Cycles are merely sequences; sequences can be arithmetic, geometry, or some other variation ( harmonic for example is 1/n). is a sequence. If we are looking at the idea of cycles in terms of the time duration between highs, lows, highs to lows, or lows to highs, we could measure out the duration of a high to high using that as the base one unit. is also a sequence; this is a geometric sequence with the factor being two; likewise as the above scenario, we could take the first measurement, and use it as a base unit. Explore the different sequences, and explore the relationships of price and time: time from high to high; time from low to low; time from high to high to low to low to high; price from high to high; price from high to low; price from low to low. Some sequences to start off are 1,2,3,5,8,13,21; n = (n-1) + (n-2) 1,1.414, 1.73, 2, 2.23; n = sqrt(n) .236,.382,.618,1,1.618,2.618; n = 1.618n In-exhaustive book list Law of Vibration - Tony Plummer Michael Jenkins - Geometry of Stock Market Profits, Chart Reading for Professional Traders, Complete Stock Market Forecasting Course Scott M. Carney - The Harmonic Trader, Harmonic Trading Volume I, Harmonic Trading Volume II, Harmonic Trading Volume III H.M. Gartley - Profits in the Stock Market Bill Wiliams - Trading Chaos, New Trading Dimensions, Trading Chaos 2nd Edition J.M. Hurst - The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing, Cyclic Analysis: A Dynamic Approach Disclaimer: Not financial advice, no warranties of merchantability, profitability, or probabilities.
TVC:SPXEducation
by UnknownUnicorn27791825
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Geometry: SQRT(2,3,5)Geometric Angles are as such: 1x1 1x2 1x3 1x4 1x5 1x6 1x7 1x8 1x9 2x1 3x1 4x1 5x1 6x1 7x1 8x1 9x1 Anytime the point in price-time crosses the 45 degree axis, a change in trend takes place. Recommended Reading: Law of Vibration - Tony Plummer Michael Jenkins - Geometry of Stock Market Profits, Chart Reading for Professional Traders, Complete Stock Market Forecasting Course Disclaimer: Not financial advice, no warranties of merchantability, profitability, or probabilities.
Education
by UnknownUnicorn27791825
2